From 0 to 60 …
Then Steady on the Gas
34th Annual Conference on The First-Year Experience®
February 9, 2015
Mary Piccioli
Nancy Casey
Enrollment Management Consultant
Scannell &Kurz
Chair, Department of Elementary Education
Chair, Student Success & Retention Committee
St. Bonaventure University
1
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St. Bonaventure University
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Framework for Discussion
•
•
•
•
•
•
Who we are
Where we were
What we did
What happened
Data processes – and what we did with it
And why we believe we’ve been
successful
2
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St. Bonaventure
Bonaventure University
University
St.
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driven by service
Becoming
extraordinary
Becoming
Why This Presentation Is Important
• At St. Bonaventure, there was a small group
dreaming, but no action
• Retention dips provided an impetus
• We really did start at 0 and go to 60 in 8 months
• Data-driven decision making was at the heart of
every decision
• This is a good example of how analysis done by a
3rd party vendor can be used as a starting point
for internal data analysis and action
3
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Becoming
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The Players
Scannell & Kurz
• Mary
– Dean of Enrollment at SBU
until 2008
– Part of the SBU team to
develop FYE program
– Enrollment Management
Consultant with S&K since
2009
– Strategic financial aid analysis
and retention predictive
modeling and best practice
review are in our wheelhouse
St. Bonaventure University
• Nancy
– Full-time, tenured faculty
member
– With a passion about
freshman success
– Inaugural Director of SBU’s
efforts to develop an FYE
program
– Now Chair of the Student
Success & Retention
Committee
4
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St. Bonaventure University
• A Catholic University in the Franciscan tradition
• A highly residential campus, located in Western
New York state
• 1800 undergraduates/350 graduate students
• Liberal arts core, majors in arts and sciences, as
well as strong professional preparation in
education, business and journalism/mass
communication
“At St. Bonaventure University, we come to know our students on an
individual basis and become their mentors. We strive to bring out the
best in every individual. “
5
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January 2006: Where We Were
• Lower than desired enrollment
• A dip in retention rates
• Several ad hoc groups, individuals and
committees were discussing and researching on
freshman issues, resulting in tentative and notso-tentative suggestions for change from multiple
individuals and committees across campus
• An “invitation” from the Provost to design living
and learning structures for freshmen
6
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What We Did…and What We Learned
• We rolled up our sleeves and dove in head first
• Gathered those who had been passionate about
the issues – started an “FYE Council”
• Articulated dreams and visions
• We identified the “must dos” for fall 2006
• And we really did go from 0 to 60 (plus) in less
than 8 months
• We learned three big lessons
7
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Lessons Learned after 1 Year
• Lesson 1. It Takes a Campus FYE initiative
was a result of an unprecedented
campus-wide collaboration, involving more
than 60 individuals from all areas of the
University
• Lesson 2. It Could Be Done
• Lesson 3. It’s All about Conversations
8
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Why Did It Work?
• We flew “under the radar”
• We had pretty much unquestioned support from the
President and the Provost
• We NEVER asked for anything without research and/or
data to back up the request
• We reported to the Provost…and he basically said “I
trust you, go for it”
• We had a very small budget, so there wasn’t too much
at stake
• And…we talked to everyone
9
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2006 to 2015
Successes …
And Slips…
•
•
•
•
•
•
• Housing
• Affinity Groups
• Living/Learning
Communities
• Residential Mentors
• UNIV 101
• Faculty Involvement
Freshman Housing
ABR
Peer Coaching
FRES 100/101
Passports
UNIV 101
10
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Enter … Scannell & Kurz
• Retention was not where we wanted it to be
• Commissioned a Retention Analysis in Spring
2009
Cohort Retention to Term 3
– Data collection in fall 2009
– Using 6 years of data
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
82%
76%
79%
77%
79%
82%
11
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How Data Guided and Informed Decision
Making … and Called For More Data
• Consultants provide a new lens on data
• Ultimate goals of the work for the University
– Understanding of what’s going on
– Opportunities for examination of practice
– Data-driven decision making
12
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First Actionable Item:
Student Success & Retention Committee
• Charged summer 2010
• Intensive process of examining practices (or
lack thereof)
• FYE became a critical part of SS&R…in many
ways it combined the FYE Council with a
slightly different group working to the same
purpose
13
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Model 1: Predicting Term 1 Success
• Model 1a: What factors identified students who
were “Less likely to achieve a low 1st term GPA”
(i.e., will succeed)
• Model 1b: More Likely to achieve a low 1st term
GPA (i.e., will NOT succeed)
14
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Model 1 – Predicting Low Term 1 GPA
-0.9%
0.3%
-2.4%
-3.3%
-4.3%
5.6%
4.3%
8.9%
-4.4%
3.5%
-8.0%
-14.9%
-1.5%
Model 1a: Less Likely to Achieve Low T1GPA
Total Grant
Need
Applied for Aid
Received Work Study
Female
Commuter
Minority Student
12.7% HEOP
Foundations Admit
HS GPA (10 pt diff)
Declared Science
Declared Education
Fresh Sem Grade >= C
Attempted Hours
Model 1b: More Likely to Achieve Low T1GPA
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“1a: Less likely to achieve a low 1st term GPA”
• Female (4.3% less likely than males)
– Student life data also suggested problems on certain
floors/wings
• SBU won’t go co-ed housing
• But M/F/M/F floor configurations seem to have a positive
effect
• Education Majors (8% less likely than all other majors)
– Strong UNIV 101 presence
– Demands of the major
– Intrusive advising & messaging
16
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Addressing UNIV 101 Issues
• UNIV 101 grade C or better (15% less likely than lower
grades)
– Tactics
•
•
•
•
•
Register all
Common syllabus
Common assignments
Expansion of Passports
ABR as key – addition of “Poster Conference”
– Midterm grade interventions, intrusive advising for
low UNIV 101 grade
17
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“1a: Less likely to achieve a low 1st term GPA”
• High School GPA: for every 10 pt increase, student
less likely to have low 1st term GPA; 90 v 80 = 4.4 %
– Started using BSSE
– Reports send to freshman advisers with request to
review and discuss with advisees
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BSSE Advising Report
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“1a: Less likely to achieve a low 1st term GPA”
• Credits Attempted & Earned: For every extra
attempted credit hour (e.g.,15 v 14)
– Every freshman is registered for a full load (14-16 credits
by mid-summer)
– HOWEVER, If class is dropped in add/drop week, it doesn’t
show up as attempted
• We didn’t allow freshmen or 1st semester transfers to drop
without adviser signature
• Advisers were made aware of the importance of attempted credits
– IR completed a study on high incidence DFW classes
(gateway courses)
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“1a: Less likely to achieve a low 1st term GPA”
• Aid applicants -- FAFSA (2.4% less likely)
– Increase in programming during Welcome Days
• Borrowing
• Credit cards
• Financial literacy
• Students who earn $ on campus (3.3% less likely)
– 42% of all UG students work on campus (fall 2014)
– Expanded Welcome Days sessions on student
work open to all freshmen
21
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1b: More Likely to achieve a low 1st term GPA
(i.e., will NOT succeed)
• Commuters
– Our commuter population is very low, especially
for first-year students, so it has been very
difficult to help them develop a community
– TRIED with little success
• Special welcome day sessions
• Commuter lounges
• Information lunches
22
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“1b: More Likely to achieve a low 1st term GPA”
• Students of color
(16% of total population in fall 2013)
– Significant changes in training for Orientation Team
• Our Orientation cohorts are small and so the # of students of
color is very small in each cohort
• O-Team has training on being sensitive to diversity and
especially students of color
– Restructuring Welcome Days
• “Day of involvement” has had much stronger presence from
Damietta Clubs (Diversity and Multi-cultural campus center)
• Early exposure and presence
23
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“1b: More Likely to achieve a low 1st term GPA”
• “Freshman Foundation” Students
– FRES 100 seminar
• Optional 2007 through 2009
• 2010  mandatory
– Peer Coaching
• 2009 PCs offered to Freshman Foundation students
• 2010 PCs assigned to all Freshman Foundation
students; offered to everyone else
• 2011 PCs assigned to all freshman and transfer
students
24
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“1b: More Likely to achieve a low 1st term GPA”
• Freshman
Foundations
8.9% more
likely
End of Term 1 GPA for FF
3.00
2.56
2.53
2.36
2.37
2.28
2.44
2.00
1.00
2004
2.17
2.08
2006
2.39
2.28
2008
2010
2012
2014
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“1b: More Likely to achieve a low 1st term GPA”
• Science Majors
– Not good support from science faculty for UNIV
101
– Much of this is caused by “a dreams dashed”
syndrome
– Some curriculum changes have been instituted
26
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Model 2: Predicting Retention to Term 3
Total Grant
0.45%
Need
-0.15%
Received Work Study
3.47%
5.62%
Term 1 GPA
Female
-3.28%
Commuter
-12.58%
Athlete
-3.89%
2.83%
3.61%
1.73%
-0.66%
Model 2b: Less Likely to Retain
Declared Journalism
Fresh. Sem. Grade of >= C
Attempted Hours
Attempted vs Earned Hours
Model 2a: More Likely to Retain
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“2a: Predicting Retention to Term 3: More Likely”
• Financial factors
– Higher grant level
– Work study
• Grades
– For every extra point in term 1 GPA
– UNIV 101 grade C or better
– The key, we found is midterm attention and
intervention
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More likely
Less likely
Students with A/B/C in UNIV 101
Retention to
#
term 3
2006
423
82%
2007
483
82%
2008
504
86%
2009
426
82%
2010
445
83%
2011
421
87%
Students with DFW in UNIV 101
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
#
Retention to term 3
27
29
37
28
26
23
14
12
17
52%
55%
43%
43%
50%
48%
30%
8%
29
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“2a: Predicting Retention to Term 3: More Likely”
• Journalism
– During those years, Journalism had entry
requirements that prevented any FF students from
enrolling as freshmen
• More attempted hours
– Don’t let freshmen drop classes during Add/Drop
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“2b: Predicting Retention to Term 3: Less Likely”
• Financial issues
– Greater Need/High need students
– Work study
• 42% UG work on campus
• S&K tested to see if greater WS participation would make a
difference; not significant
– “even offering more students the opportunity to work on
campus, when simulated, did not matter”
• “…in short, with a discount rate [now above 50%]
SBU can’t afford to be any more affordable”
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“2b: Predicting Retention to Term 3: Less Likely”
• Females
– At the time of the study, females were less likely
to retain, but graduated at higher rates than
males
– Now, retention of females has improved
Retention to Term 3
2010
2011
2012
2013
Male
252
80%
231
79%
333
79%
230
81%
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Female
242
79%
258
82%
224
82%
208
87%
6-Year Graduation Rate
Cohort 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Overall 67% 68% 63% 64% 67%
Male
Female
65%
69%
67%
69%
60%
66%
59%
68%
St. Bonaventure
Bonaventure University
University
St.
65%
68%
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“2b: Predicting Retention to Term 3: Less Likely”
– Commuters
• Our numbers are so small…and efforts don’t pay off
Commuters
Cohort
#
Retained
to Term 3
2010
11
55%
2011
7
43%
2012
11
64%
2013
6
67%
33
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“Predicting Retention to Term 3: Less Likely”
• Every credit hour attempted but not earned
– Midterm interventions (lots of them)
– Study of DFW grades & discussions with deans
– Change in BIO assignment (101 instead of 105 for
those with low incoming profiles
– GPA 911 discussion on withdrawing – “don’t do it
if you can possibly pass”
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Midterm Interventions
• Our data showed that
– students who were in academic trouble at
midterm were very likely to end the
semester in academic difficulty (< 2.0 GPA)
– Students who were successful by midterm
tended to stay that way
• Could we ameliorate the problem?
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Retention to 3rd Semester by 1st Term Midterm GPA
Midterm < 2.0
100%
Midterm > 2.0
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
06
07
08
09
36
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Intervention Plans
•
•
•
•
Success ceremony
GPA 911
Early intervention survey to faculty
Freshman midterm grades to advisers (hard copy) with
message from Provost
• Students of Concern
• Personal interventions
– Email
– Adviser contact/meeting
– FYE staff meetings
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Steady on the Gas: Summer 2012 
• FYE was “institutionalized” but that came at a cost
• Change in leadership from Faculty to Staff position
• Change in reporting structure from Provost to Associate
Provost
• Results
–
–
–
–
Some hard conversations were harder
More scrutiny
More in the mainstream
 more attention, need to go through the channels more
• It’s nice when “everybody knows your name,” BUT it
means that you are not flying under the radar anymore
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Moving Forward: What Are the SBU FYE Dreams?
•
•
•
•
Learning communities (real ones)
Integrated living communities
Still looking to impact 4- and 6-year graduation rates
We have improved 1-2 year retention, needs to be
better
• Firm institutional decision about UNIV 101 and its
place in our curriculum and culture
• FFP and FRES 100 – Feedback loop in place?
• Who is identified as a “freshman foundation student” and why
– Can we use data here?
– Data tell us who doesn’t persist; why aren’t those the FF students?
– Why isn’t enrollment using the S&K data?
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by data,
data, driven
driven by
by service
service
Guide
St. Bonaventure
Bonaventure University
University
St.
Guided by
data,extraordinary
driven by service
Becoming
extraordinary
Becoming
Conclusions
• External analysis must drive internal data
gathering
• Together they should be driving all decisions
• Why retain consultants if you don’t use the data?
• 1st to 2nd year (retention to term 3) is now at 84%
–That matters
40
Scannell & Kurz
scannellkurz.com
Guide
by data, driven by service
St. Bonaventure University
Guided by
data,extraordinary
driven by service
Becoming
Retention Now…Back Up and Continuing a Trend
Cohort
2001
Freshman to Sophomore Retention Rate
2002
84%
2003
82%
2004
76%
2005
79%
2006
77%
2007
79%
2008
82%
2009
80%
2010
80%
2011
81%
2012
81%
2013
84%
Scannell &
& Kurz
Kurz
Scannell
scannellkurz.com
Guide by
by data,
data, driven
driven by
by service
service
Guide
83%
Fall 2014
cohort
retention to
term 2 is 94%
41
St. Bonaventure
Bonaventure University
University
St.
Guided by
data,extraordinary
driven by service
Becoming
extraordinary
Becoming
Contact Us!
Mary Piccioli
Scannell & Kurz
[email protected]
http://scannellkurz.com/
Nancy Casey
St. Bonaventure University
[email protected]
www.sbu.edu
42
Scannell &
& Kurz
Kurz
Scannell
scannellkurz.com
Guide by
by data,
data, driven
driven by
by service
service
Guide
St. Bonaventure
Bonaventure University
University
St.
Guided by
data,extraordinary
driven by service
Becoming
extraordinary
Becoming