CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE A GIS-BASED ANALYSIS OF WHY CHILDREN DO NOT WALK TO SCHOOL IN LOMITA, CALIFORNIA A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements For the degree of Master of Arts in Geography BY AFSANEH RAFII December 2014 The thesis of Afsaneh Rafii is approved: __________________________ ____________ Dr. James W. Craine Date _____________________________ ______________ Dr. Soheil Boroushaki Date ___________________________ _____________ Dr. Steven Graves, Chair Date California State University, Northridge ii Acknowledgments I would like to give thanks to my chair Dr. Steve Graves, for giving me his time and spending hefty amounts to help me for two semesters. I would also like to give thanks to Dr. James Craine as well as Dr. Soheil Boroushaki for helping me every single time I would ask for it. I would like to give a special thanks to the department chair Dr. Shawna Dark for giving me motivation and help for the beginning of my Masters. I would also like to give thanks to the Department of Geography and all the professors that have taught and encourage me every day. In addition, I would like to give thanks to Lani Kiapos, DARS coordinator who consistently was able to help me in the times that I need it the most. I would also like to give thanks to Maggie Shiffrar, Assistant VP for Graduate Studies who gave me the opportunity to complete this thesis despite the hurdles I came across. I would like to give all the credit and thanks to my two daughters Sheila & Shaina for supporting me and helping me in each moment of my time in school. I would like to give thanks to my late mother who supported me all of my life, including this journey. I also extend my thanks to all of my classmates and family for helping me through this journey. Thank you so much Dr. Graves for giving me the opportunity to complete this thesis successfully. iii Table of Contents Acknowledgments………………………………………………………………………. iii Table of Contact…..…………………………………………………………………….. iv Table of Figures ...................................................................................................................v ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................... viii Chapter 1: Introduction ........................................................................................................1 1.1 Background ................................................................................................................1 1.2 Significance of the Study .......................................................................................... 2 Chapter 2: Walkability Literature ........................................................................................5 2.1 Walkability................................................................................................................ 5 2.2 Barriers to Walkability.............................................................................................. 6 2.2.1 Safety ................................................................................................................. 7 Chapter 3: Distance and Walkability - Los Angeles County ...............................................9 Chapter 4: Lomita, California as Case Study.....................................................................14 4.1 Lomita Field Observations...................................................................................... 16 4.2 Measuring Walkability in Lomita. .......................................................................... 23 4.2.1 Sidewalk Availability....................................................................................... 23 4.2.2 Measuring Crime Rates .................................................................................... 27 4.2.3 Measuring Traffic Accident Density................................................................ 29 4.2.4 Walkability Index ............................................................................................. 31 Chapter 5: Conclusions ......................................................................................................33 5.1 Policy Implications and Recommendations ................................................................ 34 References ..........................................................................................................................38 iv Table of Figures Figure 3-0-1:Map of School Closures in the Western San Fernando Valley with Drive Time Buffers……………………………………………………………………………. 13 Figure 4-0-1:Map of Lomita's Census Block Group Boundaries and Schools…………. 15 Figure 4-2:Major street in front of Lomita’s School needed medians, and traffic signs for preventing motorists from making U-turns while students cross the street…………….. 17 Figure 4-3:Lomita Street without sidewalks or one narrow sidewalk………………….. 17 Figure 4-4:City of Lomita residential streets near schools without sidewalks ……….... 18 Figure 4-5:City of Lomita’s Street a cross street from Eshelman Elementary school without sidewalks………………………………………………………………………. 18 Figure 4-6:Streets by Eshelman Elementary school in the City of Lomita without sidewalk………………………………………………………………………………… 19 Figure 4-7:Students dropped off in the middle of the street in front of Narbonne High School…………………………………………………………………………………... 19 Figure 4-8:Students walk in street to get where sidewalks are missing………………... 20 Figure 4-9:No sidewalks encourage students to ride scooters in streets ………………. 20 Figure 4-10:Narbonne High students walk in the middle of a street without sidewalks.. 21 Figure 4-11:Students walk in a street where sidewalks are narrow ……………………. 21 Figure 4-12:Unsafe and blocked sidewalks near a school in Lomita ………………….. 22 Figure 4-13:A damaged sidewalk near Eshelman Elementary School ………………… 22 Figure 4-14:Map of Lomita by Sidewalk Availability ……………………………..…. 26 v Figure 4-15: Map of Lomita by Crime per 1,000 Persons ……………………………. 28 Figure 4-16: Map of Traffic Accidents per Square Mile, Lomita, California…………. 30 Figure 4-17: Walkability Index Scores for Lomita by Census Block Group………….. 32 vi ABSTRACT A GIS-BASED ANALYSIS OF WHY CHILDREN DO NOT WALK TO SCHOOL IN LOMITA, CALIFORNIA By Afsaneh Rafii Master of Arts in Geography Substantial evidence points to a great decline in the number of American children who walk or bike to school since 1970. In addition, a number of studies point to the great benefit of physical exercise, like walking, on a host of physical and mental health issues, such as obesity, cardio-vascular health and attention deficit disorders. These health issues have reached epidemic proportions in the United States in recent years, but still children continue to ride in vehicles to school. A significant literature suggests that increased walking distances and families’ safety concerns are the major reasons discouraging students from walking to school. In order to investigate these assertions, several GIS based analyses of school walkability are undertaken. An analysis of the temporal changes in distance between school aged children and schools in Los Angeles finds no significant change over the past few decades in distance metrics affecting the likelihood of walking to school. A follow-up case study of walkability in Lomita, California finds that several schools in that part of Los Angeles are located in neighborhoods with poor walkability characteristics, indicating that school site locations vii may be partially to blame for the low number of students who walk to school in urban settings. Policy recommendations are offered. viii Chapter 1: Introduction The trip to and from school has changed dramatically in the past 40 years. Today instead of walking or bicycling to and from school, children use private cars or school buses. Today approximately 45 percent of children are driven to school by their parents and about 39 percent ride in school buses (McDonald et al. 2011). This leaves about 15 percent of children aged 5 to 14 in the United States who walk or bike to and from school, a significant decrease from the nearly 50 percent that walked or biked in 1969 (McMillan 2003; Serdula et al.1993). There are a number of reasons preventing students from walking or riding bikes to school nowadays, including fear of crime and injury, laziness, and school closures. In addition to the social and personal costs in terms of taxes and pollution, there is a variety of personal and social health costs associated with this sea change in school transportation. This thesis examines how school closures in Los Angeles County have altered the landscape of elementary school distribution in an attempt to evaluate the effect of school policies on the ability of school aged children to walk to school. A case study, conducted in the city of Lomita, California, considers multiple factors affecting walkability in that locale in an attempt to further shed light on the problem. The benefits of this walking and biking to school, as well as the programs designed to promote walking as an alternative for students are discussed. 1.1 Background Substantially fewer students walk or ride their bicycles to school today, and increasingly students are using private transportation (Beck & Greenspan 2008). In 1960, approximately 50 percent of children walked or rode their bicycle to school (Amram et al. 2011). In 1969, 48 percent of children 5 to 14 years of age usually walked or bicycled 1 to school (Lee & Moudon 2004; The National Center for Safe Routes to School 2011). In addition, approximately 87 percent of children living within one mile of school walked or rode their bicycle during the 1960s (Epstein et al. 1997). By 2009, a mere 13 percent of children aged 5 to 14 years walked or bicycled to school (Serdula et al. 1994). This illustrates that only 40 years ago children were routinely moving around their neighborhood by foot or by bicycle, without parental supervision, mainly traveling to and from school (Clifton et al. 2007). Today over 85% of children are not walking or biking to get to school, which has serious implications for the future in terms of physical activity and health for children (Frank & Engelke 2001). This change has had many effects, including undermining children’s’ health and increased air pollution (Zuurbier et al. 2010). This study began as an attempt to understand why these changes have occurred. 1.2 Significance of the Study Walking to school is an affordable and environmentally clean mode of transportation that may increase physical activity, sense of well-being, and reduce or decrease health problems in children such as obesity, diabetes, hypertension, colon cancer, and heart disease (Liu, & Hannon 2005). Significant links exist between the levels of walking and cycling and health (Keppel et al. 2005). Studies have also shown that more than half of the differences in obesity and asthma rates among countries are related to walking and cycling alone (Ogden et al. 2000). Approximately 30 percent of the differences in obesity rates among states and cities across the U.S. are related to walking and bicycling rates (Berrigan & Troiano 2002; Atkinson et al. 2005). One of the important benefits of walking is to prevent of the risk of obesity in children (Berrigan & Troiano, 2002). Moreover, obesity has increased in the United States over the last thirty years (Tremblay 2 & Willms 2000). The percentage of overweight children between the ages of 6 to 11 in the United States has grown from 4% in 1965 to 13% in 1999. Moreover the rate of overweight adolescents age 12 to 19 increased from 5 percent in 1970 to 14% in 1999 (Ogden et al. 2002). Some researchers believe that active travel, like walking and biking, has significant health benefits (Lee & Moudon 2004). Bassett (2000) showed that the relationship between active travel and health was discernible at three different geographic levels: international, state and city. His study also emphasized that the United States government needs to encourage physical activity by creating a safe and welcoming atmosphere with a reasonable infrastructure (Edwing et al. 2005). Even light or moderate physical activity, such as walking or cycling, can reduce the risk of heart disease and early death (Tudor-Locke et al. 2002). Not only can light physical activity reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease, but it also can promote mental health and prevent asthma. Researchers like Rupert (2012), an obstetrician and gynecologist, who practices at Kaiser Permanente in North Portland, found that children who are more physically active have better academic performance. Rupert (2012) also found that the more exposure to nature and free outdoor play and outdoor activities children get, the greater the reduction in the stress levels, and ADHD symptoms. When parents use cars less, and walk or bike to school with their kids, or let their children walk or bike to school, there is an improvement in air quality and less impact on limited energy resources (Gehring et al. 2010). Despite the substantial logic behind walking or biking to school, it appears there has been little improvement on this front in recent years. A review of the literature (below) suggests strongly that increased walking distances and families’ safety concerns are the 3 major reasons discouraging students from walking to school. In order to investigate these assertions, several GIS based analyses of school walkability are undertaken. An analysis of the temporal changes in distance between school aged children and schools in Los Angeles finds no significant change over the past few decades in distance metrics. A follow-up case study of walkability in Lomita, California finds that several schools are located in neighborhoods with poor walkability characteristics. 4 Chapter 2: Walkability Literature It is assumed that most families and even children understand that walking is a beneficial activity. The question then becomes why children don’t walk more. A number of studies have already sought answers to this question and many related ones (Allison & Ludwig 2005). However, one area that these studies usually do not gathering a lot of focus on is the dynamics of transportation: like walking and biking, child safety, and driving awareness around school zones, as well as around school buses, and child care centers (Kerr et al. 2006). As it turns out, walkability or perceptions of walkability figure prominently among the reasons children don’t walk. This study examines those fears against the reality on-the-ground using GIS. 2.1 Walkability Walkability has become a buzzword in planning circles and among academics in recent years. The decrease in walking and biking to school has been the focus of much research (Kerr et al. 2006). Some researchers are interested in the association between the built environment and physical activity (walking and biking) and have focused attention on children between the ages 5 and 17 (Atkinson et al. 2005). At least a few studies (e.g., Hossain et al. 2009) examine how GIS can be used to understand the relationship between physical activity and the built environment for a group of children. Norman & Nutter (2006) focused a similar study on the walking behaviors of low-income children Walkable communities are livable places which give their residents safe and trusty transportation choices and could improve the quality of life of the residents (Frank & Engelke 2001). Walkable communities improve transportation efficiency and create 5 healthier and happier lives for their residents. Overall, increased walkability also could help improve safety, as well as health and social collaboration (Serdula et al. 1993). 2.2 Barriers to Walkability The most basic barrier to walkability is the friction of distance. When destinations, like schools, malls or markets are too far from residences, people are simply unable to choose to walk. Time constraints overwhelm the positive benefits associated with walking. This fact has not escaped study. Researchers are strongly concerned that children do not walk or bike to school as much as in the past and they are working hard to understand what reasons are behind this problem (Martin & Carlson 2004). Research has shown that kids live further from school than they did in the 1960s. In fact, in 1969, 41 percent of children from kindergarten to 8th grade lived within one mile of school, and almost 89 percent of those children usually walked or bicycled to school (CDC 2004). Only 31 percent of children in kindergarten through 8th grade, in 2009, were living at least within one mile of school, and out of those only a mere 35 percent of them usually walked or biked to school (Morris, 2001). Between 1968 and 2001, the number of schools decreased by about 1,000 while the number of students increased by over 2 million (NCES, 2003). However, fewer students live within a mile of their school as compared to earlier times. Nowadays, kids go to larger schools located further from home than they did two generations ago. One of the main reasons for the decrease of walkability to schools is lack of neighborhood schools. Today in twenty first century, there are not many neighborhoods schools in comparison to the past, and many neighborhood schools were eliminated 6 during the 1980s. Moreover, President Regan cut the budgets of non-military programs, including Federal Education Program in what was pitched as an effort to reduce the deficit (Rosenbaum, David E, 1986), and because of this law, the government closed down these schools. No replacements were built. The result of this policy gradually decreased the number of walking of children and increased carpooling and machinery transportation to these schools based on distance (Rosenbaum & David, 1986). As a result of these observations, the first objective of this study is the examine changes in distance school-aged children must travel in Los Angeles since the 1980s. 2.2.1 Safety A number of researchers point to both real and perceived safety issues as the key element determining the walkability of a town or neighborhood. In fact, one researcher claims that the main reason why fewer children are walking or biking to school is because of safety and street construction conditions (Kerr et al. 2006). A lot of the focus seems to be on the built environment; the manner in which the pathways to and from school are constructed and how poor design increases the risk of injury. Ewing et al. (2004) also note that parents have cited street conditions, safety, and crime as leading reasons for not letting or not making students walk to school. Safety concerns raised when vehicles are parked along walkways contributing to potential pedestrian vehicle contact and traffic collisions in the vicinity of schools (Ewing, et al. 2005; Fabbri et al. 2008). Another study suggested that children do not walk to school is because they have to negotiate pedestrian paths that are often blocked by parked vehicles (Zucca et al. 2008). Another study notes that street condition concerns are strongly linked or related to the kind of physical environment and landscape architecture (Cervero 7 & Duncan 2003). Poor street conditions may influence not only children's school travels but also bring their play activity and their overall physical activity down (Boarnet & Anderson, 2005). The lack of sidewalks, green routes, and poor street conditions could be the reasons for decreasing for walking and biking to school anymore (Fulton, et at. 2005). Clearly in many instances parental fears are well founded. School zones are dangerous and appear to perhaps be getting more dangerous. Approximately 250 children annually are killed near schools, and approximately 23,000 are injured while walking and bicycling to and from school (TSA 2009). Traffic-related crashes are the leading cause of death and the major cause of injury among children aged one to seventeen (Ewing et al. 2004). These deaths and/or injuries cost hundreds of millions of dollars annually in medical costs and work-loss costs (Lawrence, et al. 2009). Parents themselves appear to be part of the problem. Parents often will drive quickly and without precision to and from school grounds creating a potentially hazardous environment for children (Schlossberg & Greene 2006). Fear drives the danger. Data has shown how traffic volume around schools and distance to school has increased dramatically and therefore because of this reason active transport like walking to school decreased (Strauss & Pollack, 2001). It is a self-reinforcing loop that shows few signs of abating. In addition to fears about traffic related injury or death, several studies have pointed to fears of criminal activity, including drug trafficking and kidnapping as a reason for a decrease in walkability (Day, 2006; Martin, & Carlson, 2005). 8 Chapter 3: Distance and Walkability - Los Angeles County In order to investigate the level of school walkability, a multi-pronged methodology was devised based on the literature presented above. The first component of this study’s methodology was designed to analyze the most fundamental component of walkability: distance. As detailed below, distance proved to be an unlikely cause in the declining prevalence of school children walking in Los Angeles in general. Therefore, a case-study approach was implemented that focused on the neighborhood of Lomita, California sub region of Greater Los Angeles in which a more in-depth understanding of walkability could be gained. The primary aim of this project is to determine why children are not walking and/or biking to school compared to years past. A preliminary examination of the western reaches of Los Angeles’ San Fernando Valley district and the city of Lomita, California suggested that one of the reasons children walk to school less frequently is the greater distance between home and school in 2014 than it was in the late 1960s, which is the common era by which modern walking studies are compared. Cuts in school funding and attempts at creating various “school of choice” programs, often called “magnet” schools have resulted in a new public school landscape. A number of neighborhood schools in the western San Fernando Valley, including Osco Avenue, Collins Street, and Platt Ranch, Highlander Road elementary schools were closed in the 1980s as children of the baby-boom generation filtered out of the region. It is clear that children living near these schools today have to commute longer distances than did their counterparts during the 1960s. If this pattern is repeated frequently around the Los 9 Angeles, or the nation, then it suggests a large number of students are riding to school because too many schools are beyond easy walking distance. In Lomita, one of the three regional neighborhood schools closed. In the West Valley, only one of the closed elementary schools has re-opened, so children that once lived in close proximity to the closed schools must travel further to attend elementary school. The neighborhood school once known as Lomita Elementary was renamed “Lomita Math/Science Magnet” and students from the neighborhood, if they are not admitted, may not attend this school – even if they live across the street. Instead, they are forced to go to elementary school in neighboring communities, sometimes at significant distances to their home. In addition, children from distant neighborhoods accepted into the math/science magnet school may travel many miles to attend. It is unlikely that many of the children affected by these changes are likely to walk to school. From these observations, it was determined that shifting school policies adopted in the wake of budget cuts and equitability efforts since the 1970s may have had a negative effect on the ability of children in Los Angeles County to walk to school. It is plausible to believe that similar policy changes elsewhere in the United States have had similar effects on children nationwide. In order to analyze the likelihood such observations are true, a test was created designed to evaluate the effect of distance on changing walking habits of schoolchildren. It is hypothesized that if more students are prohibited from walking to school by changes in the policies of local districts, then there will be a statistically significant increase in the percentage of school-aged children that live in a census tract/block group whose centroid 10 point is greater than one-half mile from a neighborhood school in 2014, than there were in 1980. In order to test the hypothesis, all elementary schools in Los Angeles County were mapped at two time intervals. The first map plotted each elementary school’s location in 1980. The second map plotted each elementary school’s location in 2010. High schools, junior high schools and middle schools were excluded from consideration because student attending such schools are drawn from greater distances and therefore are less likely to walk anyway. Magnet schools and other schools of choice were also excluded from consideration in both periods. It should be noted that no magnet school or school of choice existed in 1980. These years were chosen because they were the best years for which data was available. Though much of the research reviewed above compares data from the 1960s to more recent years, school address data was not available for 1960s. Moreover, many schools were still being constructed in the 1960s, which would make comparisons difficult. The mid-1980s, however appear to be when the first major wave of school closures began, so that year presents itself as a logical proxy for this measurement. Once the schools were plotted as points on the map, a series of buffers were generated around each school at both .05 mile and 1-mile intervals. Both open and schools closed since 1980 were included in the map. Rather than use standard Euclidean Distance, the street distance, or “Drive Time” distance was used. This distance measurement tool more faithfully replicates the actual walking distance encountered by pedestrians and/or automobile drivers. It must be admitted that in a few locations, students may have access 11 to “short cuts” or other pedestrian-only pathways that would not be represented in the Drive-Time buffer tool. This concern is unlikely however to affect the overall analysis. The next step in the process was to calculate the number of school aged children who lived within each of the buffered regions adjacent to both open and closed schools. A count of persons aged 5 to 18 was selected as the proxy for “school-aged children” because it best served as a proxy for the number of students who attended elementary school. The map below features the drive-time buffers around neighborhood elementary schools in the San Fernando Valley as they appeared in 1980 (stars), as well as the elementary schools that closed after 1980 as black dots. The closed schools have an additional 1mile buffer (pink) around them. Block populations appear as pale pink circles on the map in the background layer. The core of this analysis involved summing the count of schoolaged children living in each census block within one-half or one mile of both open and closed schools. The results of the analysis are listed below. The result of this statistical query showed that 48,248 children aged 5-17 years old lived in a census block with a centroid point was less than one-half mile from a school that in 1980 that has subsequently been closed or turned into a magnet school since. Since there were 1,476,542 school aged children in Los Angeles County in 1980, which represents approximately 3.3% of children who would have perhaps been forced to ride to school based on 1980 figures. Approximately 1,260,000 school-aged children lived within one half mile of an open neighborhood school in Los Angeles County in 1980. That represents roughly 76.25% of all school-aged children in the county at that time. By 12 2010, there were 1,929,615 school-aged children living in Los Angeles County. 1,476,951 of those children lived within a half mile of an open neighborhood school, representing roughly 76.54% of all schoolchildren in Los Angeles County. Statistically, this represents no statistical difference in the number of children living within a walkable distance of an open, neighborhood public school in 2010 than there were in 1980 before the program of school closings began. Distance does not appear to be an important causal factor. Additional analysis is clearly necessary to understand why students are not walking to school, at least in Los Angeles County. Figure 3-0-1: Map of School Closures in the Western San Fernando Valley with Drive Time Buffers. 13 Chapter 4: Lomita, California as Case Study Because the initial GIS based analysis did not suggest that distance was a significant factor in the declining rates of walking to school, additional analysis was deemed necessary. A case-study site in Lomita, California was chosen because of the availability of data suggested this location as an ideal site for additional study. Lomita had also been recently awarded a “Safe Routes to School” grant in order to develop safer and cleaner environment around the schools to encourage children to start walking and biking, rather than using personal or public transportation. A review of the grant revealed that one of the reasons for the award was the lack of sidewalks and bike lanes schools. There were also reported a number of missing traffic lights and poorly placed / insufficient traffic signage, especially near intersections close to schools. The traffic volume and lack of green routes, and medians were also noted in the grant award. Lomita is located between West Carson (2.6 miles) and South Bay Cities (7.4 Miles) with the longitude and latitude of (LONG: -118.316110 W) / (LAT: 33.793384 N). The City of Lomita covers about1.911 square miles, and its elevation averages 29 M (95 feet). According to the 2010 census, Lomita had a population of 20,256 with Whites and Hispanics or Latinos having the highest numbers, respectively at 11,987 (59.2%) percent, and 6,652 persons (32.8%). Other races included Native American, 2,923 (14.4%) percent, and Pacific Islander, 2,680 (13.2%) percent. The socioeconomic divisions are low-income students in the eastern district (Harbor and Lomita Blvd), while mid to highincome students lived in the western area (Palos Verdes). Furthermore, the 2010 census stated that out of the 8,068 households, 2,479 (30.7%) have children under the age of 18. 14 Lomita schools are part of the Los Angeles Unified School District within Board District Seven. Of the six schools in the City of Lomita, four of them are public schools, and the rest of them are private schools or secondary schools. The primary schools are: Eshelman Avenue Elementary school, and Lomita Math/Science Magnet (Kindergarten zoned only 1-5 magnet only). This study area focuses on the public schools within the City of Lomita. All residents are zoned to Fleming Middle School as well as Narbonne High School (in Los Angeles). The maps below display important landmarks within Lomita. Figure 4-0-1: Map of Lomita's Census Block Group Boundaries and Schools 15 4.1 Lomita Field Observations A common and useful part of many geographically informed analyses is field observation. To help bolster understanding of the conditions shaping students’ and parents’ decision regarding school transportation, it made sense to observe automotive and pedestrian traffic near schools. In addition, it is important to observe the built environment in order to make informed decisions about how to best measure walkability in Lomita. To that end, several field excursions were made in 2014 during the hours when students were in transit to and from school to observe automobile and pedestrian traffic, as well as the condition of pedestrian pathways. A photographic record was made of the site visits, and observations were recorded. It was clear from site observations that areas near Lomita schools were not pedestrian friendly. Many of the streets lacked sidewalks on one side or both sides of the streets near schools. Even streets immediately adjacent to elementary schools were observed to have poor sidewalk access for pedestrians. Children were repeatedly observed walking, biking or riding scooters and skateboards in the middle of streets. Cars used to transport children to school were repeatedly observed making U-turns in close proximity to student pedestrians. These observations supported the data contained in the Safe Routes to School grant award. Photos supporting these observations are included in the pages that follow. 16 Figure 4-2: Major street in front of Lomita’s School needed medians, and traffic signs for preventing motorists from making U-turns while students cross the street. Figure 4-3: Lomita Street without sidewalks or one narrow sidewalk. 17 Figure 4-4: City of Lomita residential streets near schools without sidewalks Figure 4-5: City of Lomita’s Street a cross street from Eshelman Elementary school without sidewalks 18 Figure 4-6: Streets by Eshelman Elementary school in the City of Lomita without sidewalk. Figure 4-7: Students dropped off in the middle of the street in front of Narbonne High School 19 Figure 4-8: Students walk in street to get where sidewalks are missing. Figure 4-9: No sidewalks encourage students to ride scooters in streets. 20 Figure 4-10: Narbonne High students walk in the middle of a street without sidewalks. Figure 4-11: Students walk in a street where sidewalks are narrow 21 Figure 4-12: Unsafe and blocked sidewalks near a school in Lomita Figure 4-13: A damaged sidewalk near Eshelman Elementary School. 22 4.2: Measuring Walkability in Lomita. After taking into consideration observations from the field, information from the Lomita grant and several prior research findings, it was determined that a model of walkability could be developed for the City of Lomita to help characterize neighborhoods in Lomita on the basis of their walkability. Such an analysis, conducted with GIS software not only is capable of identifying areas where children are less likely to walk, but also providing a map to help local government officials prioritize specific areas in the city for improvement. Any measure of neighborhood walkability may potentially include a large number of factors, but for this study, limited data availability suggest that three main factors are viable considerations: sidewalk availability, traffic accident rate and crime rates. Fortunately, these factors largely coincide with the research findings discovered in the review of the literature. 4.2.1 Sidewalk Availability One of the important factors in walkability is the availability of sidewalks. Under ideal circumstances, each length of street would have two sidewalks flanking either side of the street. The ratio would be 2:1. In other words, there should be at least two miles of sidewalk to each mile of street. Field observations already indicated that some areas near schools fell short of this ideal. In order to determine where the sidewalk to street ratio falls short of this ideal, and where these ratios are worst, a GIS based analysis was conducted. Digital maps of Lomita’s street and sidewalk networks were obtained from the City of Lomita. Each file was overlaid with a series of polygons to analyze the relative abundance of streets in Lomita, especially near schools. In order to establish a baseline 23 measure, the entire length of Lomita’s sidewalk network was summed to get a total length of 372, 866.63 feet. The entire street network was found to be 225,303.69 feet long, which means the entire city has a sidewalk-to-street ratio of 1.655. This figure falls well short of 2/1 or 2.0 ratio ideal. To provide context, a one mile Euclidean buffer was placed around each school and the sidewalk and street networks ratios were recalculated. Near the three schools under consideration, the ratio fell to 1.22, indicating that for every feet of street, there was only 1.22 feet of sidewalk within one mile of the Lomita schools. In other words, most streets had only one or no sidewalks in those areas around Lomita’s schools. The process was repeated using a half-mile buffer zone. At this distance, the ratio fell slightly to 1.2 sidewalk feet per street mile. For the sake of comparison, a few other areas were analyzed. The ratio of the sidewalks to streets for the boundary region with Palos Verdes located at south of city of Lomita was found to be 1.5. The ratio at boundary with the City of Torrance was also found to be 1.5; for the boundary cities of Carson and Harbor City were found to have ratios of 1.58 and 1.7 respectively. The most important of the sidewalk availability calculations was made with respect to census block groups. These polygons are small enough to represents neighborhoods and have adequate data (unlike blocks) to create meaningful rate measurements. This final component of the sidewalk availability measurement repeated the measuring process, and the calculation of the sidewalk to street ratio, but within each block group. Rather than clipping the sidewalk and street line files, a new shape file was created using a technique called spatial join. Essentially the GIS software counted each line segment in both the sidewalk and street layers, and summed the length in feet of each segment within the boundaries of each census block group. The new shapefile map contained several new 24 columns, two of which contained the summed lengths of both sidewalks streets. An additional column was created in which the ratio of sidewalks to street lengths was calculated. From that column, a thematic map was created showing the variation of sidewalk-to-street ratios across Lomita. The ratio of the block group with best sidewalkto-street ratio is 2.53; the worst area of town was under well under .05, meaning there were hardly any sidewalks at all in these block groups. 25 Figure 4-14: Map of Lomita by Sidewalk Availability. Data Source: City of Lomita 26 4.2.2 Measuring Crime Rates Fear of crime was another factor noted in previous research on school transportation concerns, so it was determined that crime rates in Lomita would be included in an index of walkability. Crime data for Lomita from the Los Angeles County Sherriff’s Department for 2013 was downloaded from the Sherriff Departments’ website. Each crime was reported with an identifying address which was geocoded with the address mapping tool in ArcMap 10.x. A variety of crimes were eliminated from consideration, including bad check writing, domestic violence disputes, most misdemeanors and other items in the database that were considered unlikely to raise concern among parents of school children enough to impact their school transportation decisions. Included in the database were robbery, rape, burglary, aggravated assault, graffiti, and motor-vehicle theft. Once the individual crime points were placed on the map, a count of crimes per census block group was derived using the spatial join tool in the GIS software. The crime rate per block group was calculated by dividing the number of persons per block by the number of crimes. The ratio was multiplied by 10,000 to get a crime per 10,000 persons crime rate. A thematic map of this rate was made and appears below. 27 Figure 4-15: Map of Lomita by Crimes per 1,000 Persons. Source: LA County Sherriff. 28 4.2.3 Measuring Traffic Accident Density Because prior research indicated that traffic accidents and pedestrian safety issues were an important factor undermining the walkability for school children, a traffic accident measure was included in the walkability metric developed for this study. Using the same database provided by the Los County Sherriff’s Department website, a map of accident locations was created. The point map of accidents was joined to the census blockgroup polygon map of Lomita to calculate the number of accidents per block group. The total number of accidents was then divided by the total area in square miles to get a ratio of accidents per unit of area measured. A thematic map of this accident density appears below. 29 Figure 4-16: Map of Traffic Accidents per Square Mile, Lomita, California. Source: LA County Sherriff 30 4.2.4 Walkability Index In order to get a better picture of the overall walkability of neighborhoods in Lomita, the maps indicating sidewalk availability, crime rate and accident density were combined into a single map displaying a walkability index for the City of Lomita. The walkability index was created by assigning a rank from one to five for each of the three metrics. In each instance, a value of one (1) was assigned to block groups in the lowest quintile of each map. For example, the block groups with the poorest sidewalk availability were assigned a value of one. High crime and dense accident areas were likewise assigned a value of one. Block groups with relatively good sidewalk access, low crime rates and low accident densities were assigned a value of five (5) to indicate good, or at least better, walkability. Finally, the ranking scores from each of the three walkability measures were summed to generate a walkability index score. The minimum score was three (3) and the maximum score was 15. Several block groups scored well on the index, getting a maximum score of five (5) on each metric and therefore an overall score of 15. Unfortunately, for students and parents living in Lomita, each of the schools was located in, or on the border of a block group with a walkability index of seven (7) or less. Lomita Elementary was in the block group with the overall worst walkability score. Fleming Middle and Eshelman Elementary were in neighborhoods with scores of six and seven respectively. No schools were in a neighborhood that had ideal walkability characteristics. 31 Figure 4-17: Walkability Index Scores for Lomita by Census Block Group 32 Chapter 5: Conclusions This study has uncovered a number of useful findings. First, it appears that although there have been a number of close closings since the early 1980s nationwide, it may not be affecting the rate at which schoolchildren walk to school. In Los Angeles County over 40,000 students live in a short distance of a closed school, but the overall percentage of school-aged children living within one-half mile of an open neighborhood school has actually increased since 1980. This suggests that distance may not be an important factor in the sharp decline in the percentage of children who walk to school nationwide. There may be locations or school districts where distance may be a significant factor, but in Los Angeles County this would not seem to be the case. Second, this study found that at least in Lomita, California, poor walkability characteristics of neighborhoods hosting a public, neighborhood school may be responsible for the low percentage of children who walk to school. This study found that each public school in Lomita, including the magnet school was located in a neighborhood that had poor walkability characteristics. In particular, these neighborhoods had sidewalk accessibility well below the city wide average, and far below the ideal metric parents presumably consider when deciding to allow their children to walk to school. Crime rates and traffic accident densities were also generally above the citywide averages, and are likely to contribute to Lomita parents’ decision to not allow students to walk to school. A number of limitations undermine the effectiveness of this study. The obvious limitations are typical for any study; the scope of the data included only a two locations, 33 Los Angeles County and the City of Lomita. Neither location may be typical of conditions that exist elsewhere. There is an unknown chance that the impact of school closures on the number of children living within a walkable distance in Los Angeles County is unusual. Lomita may very well not be typical of other cities even in Los Angeles, let alone other parts of the United States. There was some reason to believe that at least in terms of sidewalk accessibility, Lomita is substandard as a whole. Perhaps it is deserving of the grant it was awarded to improve walkability problems. Perhaps more importantly is that the metrics used to measure walkability in Lomita do not truly figure into the decisions parents make regarding school transportation. Though sidewalk access is clearly a problem, the overall crime and accident rates have dropped in the United States. It is assumed, since these trends have been widely reported in the news media, that parents are aware that streets are safer in the last few years than they have been in several decades. Rather than measuring actual crime and accident rates, future studies should focus on perceptions of danger. It is very well possible that parents simply report fear of crime and pedestrian accidents as reasons for driving their student to school, rather than admitting that they prefer taking their kids to school for other reasons. 5.1 Policy Implications and Recommendations What is quite clear is that walking and biking, even if it is only to school and back is a healthy alternative to riding in a car or bus. It would also appear, according to conclusions made by other researchers that the built environment has a big influence on physical activity, which in turn has a protective effect against obesity and a positive influence on public health (Berrigan and Troiano, 2002). Researchers who analyzed city and state level data from United States and from 15 countries to study the relationship 34 between “active travel” bicycling or walking rather than driving and physical activity, obesity and diabetes (Bauman, et al., 1999). They found that more than half of the difference in obesity rates, among countries is linked to waking and cycling rates. Compounding the health risk is the fact that motorized public and private transportation creates air pollution, which can lead to many health problems such as lung cancer, heart disease, and asthma (Atkinson et al., 2005). Data also indicates that physical activity may improve academic routine and awareness in youth (Appatova el at., 2008). There are a number of steps that can be taken to improve the walkability of school zones in the United States. Many of the policy recommendations suggested by this study are in line with the priorities of the Safe Routes to School program. Steps must be taken to alleviate both the real and perceived pedestrian hazards associated with walking to school. Reducing the number of speeding cars is a top priority. Enforcing speed limits and building speed calming devices such as speed humps is a critical first step. Local governments should also install solar-powered radar systems that display automotive speeds to remind drivers to slow down. One study concluded that speed humps reduced by 53-60 percent the number of injuries or deaths among children struck by an automobile around schools (Tester et al, 2004). During the enforcement, it has been observed that children’s safety would be enhanced if flashing lights and additional signage were installed to notify drivers of their speed (Saelens et al. 2003). For some locations, including Lomita, building more and better sidewalks near schools is important. Ideally, sidewalks should near schools feature a buffer between traffic and the sidewalks on which children are traveling (Byoung-Suk Kweon, 2008). Bike paths are also a recommended feature, especially dedicated bike lanes that separate cyclists safely 35 from motorized traffic. These so-called green streets increase pedestrian safety around schools for children to walk and bike to and from school (Zucca et al. 2008). Other efforts are also likely to improve pedestrian safety and encourage students to walk or bike to school. Pedestrian crossing should be clearly marked, perhaps with broad stenciled crosswalk marking. Drop off and pick up zones can be designed to reduce the chance of pedestrian-vehicle interaction. Schools should actively police the behavior of parents in these zones. Schools should encourage walking. According to a survey in 1999, 7% percent of schools have policies that restrict children from walking or biking to school (Kerr J, Rosenberg D et al., 2006). In urban areas, these policies should be seriously examined to ensure that they are serving the long-term interests of students. Instead, some schools have implemented a program called “Wednesday’s Walk” which is intended to demonstrate to parents and students that children can walk and bike to school safely. Policies such as this can be tried at many more schools. Congress provided approximately one billion dollars for Safe Routes to Schools since 2005 (Watson & Dannenberg 2008). This is probably money well spent. Walking can lead to a reduction in the health care costs associated with obesity and cardiovascular diseases (Skelton & Rudolph 2007). For school districts and families, there significant cost savings (Amram et al. 2011). The US government may realize a good return on investment if the program actually leads to improved health outcomes for children. The vast majority of this funding was earmarked for infrastructure improvements near schools, such as making or repairing sidewalks, paths, speed humps, crosswalks, school zone signage, and for traffic calming. However, the remaining funds were distributed to programs that focused on teaching children about traffic safety around schools and 36 encouraging them to take part in healthy activities. An example of a project funded by this program would be the addition of sidewalks where none currently exists, which has been proven to reduce the risk of pedestrian versus vehicle accidents by 50 percent (Appatova et al. 2008). The City of Lomita sought out and was awarded a Safe Route to School grant. The city of Lomita participated in the Safe Route to School in 2008 and the Federal government helped the city to fund building new sidewalks, crosswalks, as well as adding many new signs for the area especially near the schools, as needed. It still has a long way to go. 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