AIR PASSENGER MARKET ANALYSIS
DECEMBER 2013
KEY POINTS
 Air travel markets expanded at the average growth rate for the past 30 years in 2013, gaining 5.2% compared to
2012, despite high fuel costs and relatively slow global economic growth. Growth in air travel was driven by solid
economic expansion in emerging regions, where less mature air travel markets continue to increase strongly.

International air travel results show that airlines in mature markets of Europe and North America experienced the
slowest rates of expansion in 2013, rising 3.8% and 3.0% respectively. While economic performance in both
regions picked-up in 2013, supporting some recovery in air travel growth, the pace of expansion was far slower
than in emerging market regions. Carriers in the Middle East recorded the strongest increase in 2013, gaining
12.1% compared to 2012, reflecting strength of regional economies and solid growth in business-related premium
travel. Airlines in Latin America saw growth of 8.1% in 2013, also reflecting strong performance of several local
economies and continued expansion of trade activity, which has supported business-related international air
travel.
 Domestic air travel increased by a strong 4.9% in 2013, with China and Russia recording the strongest rates of
increase. Air travel in China expanded 11.7% in 2013, and although this is a slowdown on 2012, it is the strongest
performing domestic market, buoyed by robust domestic demand. Air travel in Russia has been supported by the
government’s policy to sustain employment and incomes, with domestic RPKs expanding 9.6% in 2013. By
contrast, other BRIC states – Brazil and India – have seen considerably slower rates of growth in domestic travel,
0.8% and 4.0% respectively. Both countries have been plagued by continued economic weakness, which has
placed considerable downward pressure on air travel demand growth.

Load factors were broadly stable overall in 2013 compared to levels in 2012, remaining high at close to 80%.
Domestic and international load factors both showed weakness mid-year, but that weakness appears to have
reversed in Q4, supported by the solid increases in volumes.
 The demand environment for air travel remains broadly positive, supported by recent improvements in the global
economy, including in advanced markets like the US and Eurozone. Business confidence is rising and
acceleration in world trade should continue to support growth in international air travel as well as business-related
premium travel, which bodes well for airline profitability.
Worldwide growth in air travel and business confidence
Total Air Freight and Passenger Volumes
Source: IATA, JP Morgan/Markit
17
65
16
450
15
430
410
14
390
370
Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs)
2009
2010
2011
2012
60
10%
55
5%
50
45
0%
40
Business Confidence
35
25
2007
11
2008
15%
2013
-10%
-15%
2008
Year on Year Comparison
Dec 2013 vs. Dec 2012
2013 vs. 2012
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Month on Month Comparison
Dec 2013 vs. Nov 2013
RPK
ASK
PLF
RPK
ASK
PLF
RPK
ASK
PLFpt
International
6.2%
5.9%
78.2%
5.4%
4.9%
79.3%
1.6%
0.6%
0.8%
Domestic
7.4%
6.2%
79.4%
4.9%
4.6%
79.9%
1.6%
0.6%
1.0%
6.6%
6.0%
78.7%
5.2%
4.8%
79.5%
1.6%
0.6%
0.8%
Total Market
-5%
Growth in RPKs
30
Freight Tonne Kilometers (FTKs)
350
330
2007
13
Monthly FTK (Billions)
Monthly RPK (Billions)
470
Index of business confidence
490
FTK: Freight-Tonne-Kilometers; AFTK: Available Freight Tonne Kilometers; FLF: Freight Load Factor. All
Figures are expressed in % change Year on Year except FLF which are the load factors for the specific
month.
Data are seasonally adjusted. All figures are expressed
in % change MoM except, FLFpt which are the
percentage point difference between LF of two months.
% change over year
Source: IATA (Seasonally Adjusted)
Air Passenger Market Analysis
December 2013
PASSENGER MARKET
International Markets
International Passenger Market
International Passenger Growth by Region
Source: IATA
350
16%
330
14%
13.9%
Nov-13
Dec-13
12%
310
% Growth YoY in RPKs
Monthly RPKs (Billion)
Source: IATA
290
270
250
230
210
9.3%
10%
8%
6.9%
6%
5.0% 4.7%
7.3%
6.2%
5.2%
5.1%
4.2%
4.6%
4%
2.1%
1.7%
2%
0%
-2%
190
Actual
Seasonally Adjusted
-4%
-2.3%
Africa
170
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Asia/Pacific
Europe
Latin
America
Middle East
North
America
Industry
 International air travel recorded robust growth in 2013, rising 5.4% compared to 2012. December was a
particularly strong month, with a 6.2% increase year-on-year and a 1.6% expansion in volumes month-on-month.
In fact the significant rise in international RPKs in December compared to November helped load factors rebound,
gaining 0.8% pts. over the month. This result has reversed the weakening in international load factors seen during
recent past months.

International air travel results show that airlines in mature markets of Europe and North America experienced the
slowest rates of expansion in 2013, rising 3.8% and 3.0% respectively. While economic performance in both
regions picked-up in 2013, supporting some recovery in air travel growth, the pace of expansion was far slower
than in emerging market regions.

Modest economic improvements in the Eurozone since Q2 and rising consumer and business confidence have
been providing a stronger demand base for international air travel. The services sector signaled expansion for a
fifth month in December, according to JPMorgan/Markit, and after weakness in previous months, job losses in the
Eurozone stabilized in December. If business activity continues to grow, employment and consumer demand
could see some improvement in the New Year, providing sustained support to air travel demand.

In the US, recent economic indicators have shown a solid fourth quarter, with manufacturing and services sector
activity expanding at a rate only marginally slower than Q3, despite the disruption caused by the government
shutdown in October. Moreover, employment growth has picked-up as has growth in consumer spending, both of
which are critical to air travel demand.
 Carriers in the Middle East recorded the strongest increase in 2013, gaining 12.1% compared to 2012, supported
by continued strength of regional economies and solid growth in business-related premium travel, particularly to
developing markets like Africa. Internationally trading industries will likely continue to see sustained growth as
export orders suggest further gains in trade ahead. Solid performance of key economies like Saudi Arabia and
the United Arab Emirates has also supported strong expansion in both business and leisure travel to regions such
as Europe.
 Growth in international travel on Latin American carriers was also strong in 2013, gaining 8.1% compared to
2012. Airlines in this region have also experienced robust growth in business related travel throughout 2013,
driven by strong performance of economies like Colombia, Peru and Chile. Markets including North America –
Latin American have recording robust growth this year, for both business and leisure travel.

Asia Pacific airlines experienced a rise of 5.3% for the year as a whole, in line with performance in 2012. Carriers
in the region saw a pick-up in demand in Q3, supported by stronger performance of major economies like China
and Japan. Economic growth in China picked up toward the end of H1, benefitting other major Asian economies
and providing a boost to regional trade volumes, which had incurred significant declines mid-year. In Japan,
continued increases in business activity have supported economic performance and helped employment grow for
5 consecutive months. These developments in turn have helped support business-related air travel within the
region and to connecting markets. During Q4, however, there was little further expansion in Asia Pacific airlines’
international FTKs, which could dampen growth momentum in the New Year.
 African airlines international air travel expanded by 5.5% in 2013, a solid result but slower than growth in 2012
(7.5%). Overall, the demand backdrop for carriers in the region is strong, with robust economic growth of local
Air Passenger Market Analysis
December 2013
economies and continued development of internationally trading industries. But some parts of the continent have
shown weakness, including the South African economy which has recently experienced a slowdown. There has
also been some slowdown in regional trade growth. These developments have placed downward pressure on
growth in demand for international air travel, which slowed in H2 2013 compared to earlier in the year.
Passenger Load Factor on International Market
International Passenger Load Factor by Region
Seasonally Adjusted
Source: IATA
81%
Source: IATA
85%
83.2%
Dec-12
Dec-13
81.8%
80%
78.0%
76.9%
77.8%
78.5%
77.7%
78.0%
77.5%
78.2%
75.7%
78%
% ASKs
% of ASKs
79.7%
80%
79%
77%
76%
75%
70.6%
69.8%
70%
75%
74%
65%
73%
60%
72%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Africa
2013
Asia/Pacific
Europe
Latin
America
Middle East
North
America
Industry
Domestic Market
Domestic Passenger Market
Domestic Passenger Growth by Country
Source: IATA
Source: IATA
200
12%
190
% Growth YoY in RPKs
Monthly RPKs (Billion)
Nov-13
Dec-13
7.4%
7.4%
10.3%
9.8%
10%
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
Actual
Seasonally Adjusted
110
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
9.3%
8%
6.2%
6%
5.5%
4.5%
4.2%
3.7%
4%
3.1%
2.5%
3.1%
2.0%
2%
0%
-2%
-1.0%
Australia
-1.2%
Brazil
China, P.R.
India
Japan
Russian
Federation
USA
Industry
 Domestic RPKs were up 4.9% in 2013 compared to 2012, reflecting steady growth throughout the year, and a
solid pick up in volumes toward the end of 2013, including a rise of 1.6% in December compared to November.
Domestic market load factors reached 79.9% overall in 2013, a solid result reflecting a strong rebound in Q4,
supported by the rise in volumes.
 Domestic air travel in China and Russia recorded the strongest rates of increase. Air travel in China expanded
11.7% in 2013. It is the strongest performing domestic market, buoyed by robust domestic demand.
 Demand for air travel in Russia is being supported by a resilient labor market; with government policy firmly set to
maintain high employment and sustained income levels. Russian domestic air travel volumes expanded 9.6% in
2013.
 By contrast, other BRIC states – Brazil and India – have seen considerably slower rates of growth in domestic
travel, 0.8% and 4.0% respectively. Tax breaks and investment incentives have done little to boost growth in the
Brazilian economy, dampening domestic consumption. But moves by airlines to cut capacity have helped improve
load factors, which finished the year at 76.3%, well above 2012 (71.8%). In India, the demand backdrop has been
difficult with the economy weakening over the past two years, showing high inflation and slowing manufacturing
and mining industries.
 Japan’s domestic air travel market improved significantly in 2013, expanding 5.2%. The Japanese economy
accelerated in the first half of 2013 on the back of significant government stimulus and that has supported
increases in business activity and improving employment rates, all of which have boosted demand for air travel.
 In the US, domestic air travel expanded 1.9% in 2013, which is more than double the pace of growth in 2012. The
improvement reflects sustained increases in consumer confidence throughout the year as well as rising
employment activity, particularly over recent months. In December, the US domestic market was up 7.4%
compared to a year ago, but this result is positively impacted by Thanksgiving traffic moving into December.
Air Passenger Market Analysis
December 2013
 Australia domestic market recorded growth of 2.8% in 2013. Despite interest rate cuts, the economy remains
broadly sluggish with rising unemployment and fragile business and consumer confidence tainting the
performance outlook for the coming year.
Domestic Passenger Load Factor by Country
Source: IATA
Passenger Load Factor on Domestic Market
Seasonally Adjusted
Source: IATA
82%
81%
85.4%
80%
78%
% ASKs
% of ASKs
Dec-13
85%
79%
77%
76%
82.8%
76.9%
78.2%78.1%
81.8%
78.5%
78.3%
74.2%
75%
70%
68.2% 66.9%
60.9%
74%
60%
73%
55%
72%
50%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
79.4%
76.4%
76.1%
65%
75%
71%
2007
Dec-12
90%
80%
62.2%
45%
2013
Australia
Brazil
China, P.R.
India
Japan
Russian
Federation
USA
Industry
Total Market (Domestic + International)
Total Passenger Market
Total Passenger Growth by Region
Source: IATA
Source: IATA
16%
14%
13.2%
Nov-13
Dec-13
12%
480
% Growth YoY in RPKs
Monthly RPKs (Billion)
530
430
380
330
Actual
10%
6.2%
6%
2009
2010
2011
2012
6.6%
6.5%
5.2%
4.1%
4%
2%
1.3%
0%
-2%
-3.1%
Africa
2013
Asia/Pacific
Passenger Load Factor on Total Market
Europe
Latin
America
Middle East
North
America
Industry
Total Passenger Load Factor by Region
Source: IATA
Seasonally Adjusted
Source: IATA
81%
7.1%
4.4%
-4%
2008
6.6%
6.3%
-0.3%
Seasonally Adjusted
280
2007
9.0%
8%
90%
Dec-12
Dec-13
80%
84.5%
85%
81.8%
% of ASKs
% of ASKs
79%
78%
77%
76%
80%
79.1%
77.5%
76.2%
76.7% 77.3% 76.8%
77.9%
78.2%
77.9%
78.7%
75%
71.1%
70.3%
70%
75%
65%
74%
60%
73%
Africa
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Asia/Pacific
Europe
Latin
America
Middle East
North
America
Industry
Air Passenger Market Analysis
December 2013
ANNEX
Year on Year
Comparison
Dec 2013 vs Dec 2012
2013 vs. 2012
RPK
ASK
PLF
RPK
ASK
PLF
Africa
2.1%
3.3%
69.8%
5.5%
5.2%
69.0%
Asia/Pacific
4.7%
6.1%
76.9%
5.3%
5.2%
77.7%
Europe
5.2%
4.4%
78.5%
3.8%
2.8%
81.0%
Latin America
7.3%
1.9%
79.7%
8.1%
7.4%
79.2%
Middle East
13.9%
14.2%
77.5%
12.1%
12.8%
77.3%
North America
5.1%
3.3%
83.2%
3.0%
2.2%
82.8%
International
6.2%
5.9%
78.2%
5.4%
4.9%
79.3%
Australia
2.5%
3.6%
76.1%
2.8%
3.8%
76.5%
Brazil
4.2%
4.3%
78.1%
0.8%
-3.3%
76.3%
China P.R.
9.8%
12.6%
76.4%
11.7%
12.2%
80.3%
India
3.1%
15.1%
74.2%
4.0%
3.5%
74.6%
Japan
6.2%
3.9%
62.2%
5.2%
5.1%
64.3%
Russian Federation
5.5%
7.6%
66.9%
9.6%
9.1%
74.0%
US
7.4%
2.9%
85.4%
1.9%
1.9%
83.8%
Domestic
7.4%
6.2%
79.4%
4.9%
4.6%
79.9%
Africa
1.3%
2.5%
70.3%
5.1%
4.5%
69.9%
Asia/Pacific
6.3%
8.2%
76.2%
7.1%
7.1%
77.6%
Europe
5.2%
4.4%
77.3%
3.8%
2.7%
80.2%
Latin America
7.1%
4.1%
79.1%
6.3%
4.5%
78.0%
Middle East
13.2%
13.2%
77.9%
11.4%
12.0%
77.6%
North America
6.5%
3.1%
84.5%
2.3%
2.0%
83.4%
Total Market
6.6%
6.0%
78.7%
5.2%
4.8%
79.5%
RPK: Revenue-Passenger-Kilometers; ASK: Available-Seat-Kilometers; PLF: Passenger-Load-Factor;
All Figures are expressed in % change Year on Year except PLFwhich are the load factors for the specific month.
Air Passenger Market Analysis
December 2013
Month on Month
Comparison
Dec 2013 vs. Nov 2013
Market Share
RPK
ASK
PLFpt
RPK
Africa
3.9%
1.9%
1.4%
3.5%
Asia/Pacific
1.4%
0.8%
0.5%
29.3%
Europe
1.2%
0.3%
0.7%
33.8%
Latin America
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
5.0%
Middle East
1.8%
1.0%
0.5%
14.2%
North America
2.7%
0.0%
2.2%
14.3%
International
1.6%
0.6%
0.8%
100.0%
Australia
1.4%
0.0%
1.4%
3.4%
Brazil
-1.6%
1.7%
-3.2%
4.4%
China P.R.
1.5%
1.1%
0.3%
20.3%
India
-0.5%
1.7%
-1.5%
2.9%
Japan
2.4%
0.4%
1.3%
3.1%
Russian Federation
-0.1%
-0.1%
0.1%
3.1%
US
2.5%
0.1%
2.1%
44.9%
Domestic
1.6%
0.6%
1.0%
100.0%
Africa
3.7%
1.8%
1.3%
2.6%
Asia/Pacific
1.4%
1.0%
0.4%
31.9%
Europe
1.1%
0.2%
0.7%
23.9%
Latin America
0.1%
0.7%
-0.4%
6.0%
Middle East
1.6%
1.0%
0.5%
9.3%
North America
2.5%
0.1%
2.0%
26.4%
Total Market
1.6%
0.6%
0.8%
100%
Data are seasonally adjusted. All figures are expressed in % change MoM except,
FLFpt which are the percentage point difference between load factors of two months.
IATA Economics
E-Mail: [email protected]
TH
6 February 2014
FURTHER ANALYSIS AND DATA
Access data related to this briefing
through the Route Tracker publication:
www.iata.org/carrier-tracker
NEW RELEASE ALERTS
To receive email notification of new
analysis from IATA Economics,
select ‘Economic Briefings’ from:
www.iata.org/optin