Growth in UK Real National Output
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
-6
-6
-7
-7
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Percent
Percent
Annual percentage change in real GDP measured at constant prices
13
Source: UK Statistics Commission
UK Real GDP and Output Gap
1.500
1.475
1.475
1.450
1.450
1.425
1.425
1.400
1.400
1.375
1.375
1.350
1.350
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
thousand billions
1.500
Percentage of potential GDP
at constant prices (thousand billions)
Top pane: Real GDP Bottom Pane: Output Gap measured as a % of potential GDP source: OECD
14
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Economic Growth and Inflation
UK Real GDP Growth and Consumer Price Inflation. annual percentage change
6
Percent
5
6
Real GDP growth
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
Consumer price inflation
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
-6
-6
-7
-7
03
04
05
06
Real GDP growth (%) [ar 4 quarters]
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Consumer Price Inflation (%)
Source: UK Statistics Agency
Recession and weak recovery leaves many out of work
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
5
5
3
3
1
1
-1
-1
Annual growth of real GDP
-3
-3
-5
-5
-7
-7
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
millions
Out of work for less than 6 months
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
Percent
Person (millions)
Annual % change in GDP and short term unemployment
08
09
10
11
12
13
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Actual and Potential GDP for the UK
1.55
1.55
1.50
1.50
1.45
1.45
1.40
1.40
1.35
1.35
1.30
1.30
1.25
1.25
1.20
1.20
1.15
1.15
00
01
02
Potential Output
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
£ (thousand billions)
£ (thousand billions)
£ thousand billion at constant 2003 prices. Source: OECD
14
Real GDP
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Ireland
Estimated Trend Growth Rates
Annual % change in potential GDP, source: OECD World Economic Outlook
4.0
4.0
Spain
USA
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
UK
Percent
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
Euro Zone
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
Japan
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
United States
Euro Zone
United Kingdom
Japan
Spain
Source: OECD World Economic Outlook
UK - Potential GDP and Trend Growth
Per cent
Source: OECD World Economic Outlook
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
Unemployment rate (%)
5
5
4
4
3
3
Estimated UK Trend Growth Rate
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
% Change in Employment
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Source: OECD World Economic Outlook
UK Labour Productivity and the Economic Cycle
Annual % change in output per worker for the whole economy
6
6
5
5
Percent
Real GDP
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
Labour productivity
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
-6
-6
-7
-7
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Economic Growth for Selected EU Countries
6.0
6.0
4.0
4.0
2.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
-2.0
-2.0
-4.0
-4.0
-6.0
-6.0
-8.0
-8.0
04
05
06
Germany
United Kingdom
07
08
09
Ireland
Greece
10
11
12
13
Annual % change in real GDP
Annual % change in real GDP
Annual % change in real GDP at constant prices
14
Spain
Euro Zone
Source: OECD World Economic Outlook
Economic Cycles for UK & the Euro Area
Annual % change in real GDP
Annual % change in real GDP for UK and Euro Area
5
5
UK
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
Euro Area
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
-6
-6
-7
-7
06
07
Euro Zone Countries
08
09
10
11
12
13
United Kingdom [ar 4 quarters]
Source: EuroStat