Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
CROP and Central Oregon
A Case Study in Woody Biomass Supply & Utilization:
Doing it Right!
Presented by
Catherine M. Mater
President—Mater Engineering
Senior Fellow – The Pinchot Institute for Conservation
Corvallis, Oregon; Washington, DC
Tel: 541-753-7335 Fx: 541-752-2952
E-mail: [email protected]
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
1
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
The Healthy Forest Restoration Act
Getting it on
the ground
Great! …. now how do we do it???
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
2
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
But some protocols in place to help reduce the stress . . .
• Categorical
exclusions
• Service
contracting
(long term)
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
3
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
But new protocols tend to be conducted at project level:
¾ project by project basis (CEs)
¾ district level (service contracts)
Difficulty with project platform:
¾
Impact on a smaller scale
¾
Misses investor landscape resource offering
requirements for investment
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
4
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
Oregon
Ï
It began with biomass
inventorying ….
Ï
Ï
9 Central Oregon
(Bend-Redmond)
9 South Central (Hines)
9 Siuslaw NF Watershed
(Ecotrust funded by EPA $)
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
5
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
Ochoco - Lookout Mountain Ranger District
( Prineville)
10,000
Ochoco - Lookout Mountain Ranger District
(Big Summit)
mbf
8,000
2000
6,000
2001
4,000
2002
2,000
0
Sold
12" & Greater
Offered
Sold
Offered
4" - 11"
Sold
mbf
Offered
<4"
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2000
2001
2002
Offered
Sold
Offered
12" & Greater
Sold
Offered
4" - 11"
Sold
<4"
Oregon’s
Ochoco NF:
Unstable
Offered vs sold
for ’00-’02
Unlevelized!!
LMRD
mbf
Ochoco - Paulina Ranger District
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2000
2001
2002
Offered
Sold
12" & Greater
March 2006
Offered
4" - 11"
Sold
Offered
Sold
<4"
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
6
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
What we see:
• No coordination between NF systems in regions
• No coordination between USFS ranger districts
• No coordination with other agencies in region
with harvest activity (BLM, state, DOT, etc)
. . . coupled with biomass-to-energy
projects proving difficult to pencil out
without introduction of value-add.
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
7
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
What investors saw:
¾
erratic supply at best; no level playing field
¾
Uncertainty where or when supply will come from in
an investment landscape (~200 mile radius)
¾
little information on resource characteristics to be
supplied
¾
no investor risk mitigation efforts within the investor
landscape (agency coordination targeting risk
factors)
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
8
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
Solution
. . . Seed the CROP
(Coordinated Resource Offering Protocol)
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
9
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
10
CROP
9
Nation’s first benchmark projects in
investor landscape coordination of
projected resource offering:
¾ Within agencies (ie RD’s within NF
system)
¾ Between agencies (USFS, BLM, state,
Counties, Indian nations, etc.)
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
11
CROP
9
Premise:
March 2006
•
Focus is on “levelized” supply
between key players, not
necessarily adding more supply.
•
“Levelized” effort must apply to
volume, diameter, and species in
locational context.
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
12
5 market-driven factors (what investors look at)
9 How much is proposed for removal (5-year period)?
9 Where will the volume come from?
9 How levelized is the removal flow over time?
9 What is the comparative credibility of the projected
removals?
9 What are the associated risks?
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
Ï
Ï
Ï
13
Central Oregon Partnerships for
Wildfire Risk Reduction
(COPWRR)
A Template for CROP National Implementation
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
14
CROP Investor Landscape
Redmond
Bend
~160 miles
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
15
Central Oregon investor landscape includes:
March 2006
•
5 National forests
•
State lands
•
ODOT
•
4 BLM districts
•
Warm Springs Indian
Nation
•
10 Counties
•
Private lands
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
16
What was asked for ( 5-yr. Period):
(inclusive data)
• Volume (by mmbf; green/dry tons; ccf )w/ conversions
• Diameter sizes <4” 4”-7” 7”-9” 9”-12” >12”
• Species (12 species evaluated for resource flow)
• Harvest “type”: fuel load reduction, timber sales,
PCT, post and pole
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
17
Ponderosa Pine – NF
(5-yr total = 182.2 mmbf)
98% of all public lands
Ochoco NF
3 25%
Deschutes NF
3 69%
Fremont/Winema NF
3 6%
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
18
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
Ponderosa Pine – NF
(’03 – ’07 annual volume = 36.3 mmbf)
Deschutes NF - S isters RD: Ponderosa Pine
'03-'07 Annual Volume by Diameter
(3.99 mmbf/yr)
Ochoco NF - Lookout Mt. RD: Ponderosa Pine
'03-'07 Annual Volume by Diameter
(6.47 mmbf/yr)
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
6
<4"
4"-7"
7"-9"
9"-12"
< 4” =
4”– 7” =
7”– 9” =
9”– 12” =
> 12” =
>12"
Deschutes NF - Bend/Ft. Rock RD: Ponderosa Pine
'03-'07 Annual Volume by Diameter
(15.2 mmbf/yr)
1.2%
17.5%
19%
12%
50.3%
5
4
3
2
1
0
<4"
Bend/Ft. Rock will provide
42% of annual volume
6
5
4
7"-9"
9"-12"
>12"
Ochoco NF - Paulina RD: Ponderosa Pine
'03-'07 Annual Volume by Diameter
(2.74 mmbf/yr)
8
7
4"-7"
2.5
2
3
2
1.5
1
0
1
<4"
4"-7"
7"-9"
9"-12"
>12"
0.5
0
Deschutes NF - Crescent RD: Ponderosa Pine
'03-'07 Annual Volume by Diameter
(5.97 mmbf/yr)
<4"
4"-7"
7"-9"
9"-12"
>12"
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
<4"
4"-7"
7"-9"
9"-12"
>12"
Fremont-Winema NF - Chemult RD: Ponderosa Pine
'03-'07 Annual Volume by Diameter
(1.03 mmbf/yr)
Fremont-Winema NF - S ilver Lake RD: Ponderosa Pine
'03-'07 Annual Volume by Diameter
(1.10 mmbf/yr)
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0
0
<4"
March 2006
4"-7"
7"-9"
9"-12"
>12"
<4"
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
4"-7"
7"-9"
9"-12"
>12"
Catherine M. Mater
19
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
Juniper – BLM
(5-yr total = 23.6 mmbf)
by diameter
BLM - Prineville Dist.: Juniper
2003 Annual Volume by Diameter
(0.45 mmbf)
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
Salem
0.2
0.15
0.1
·
·
·
Lakeview Prineville
= 95%
> 12”
= 46%
7” – 9”
= 44%
Eugene
0.05
0
<4"
4"-7"
7"-9"
9"-12"
>12"
BLM - Prineville Dist.: Juniper
'04-'07 Annual Volume by Diameter
(0.41 mmbf/yr)
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
<4"
BLM - Lakeview Dist.: Juniper
'04-'07 Annual Volume by Diameter
(5.38 mmbf/yr)
4"-7"
7"-9"
9"-12"
>12"
3
2.5
Lakeview
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
<4"
March 2006
4"-7"
7"-9"
9"-12"
>12"
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
20
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
Associated Risks:
¾ On 5-yr. removal volume: may create ‘red flag’: > 12” = 53%
¾ On harvest type: interesting!
Fuel Load Reduction: only 11% of total volume
Timber Sales: 67% of total volume
¾~ 354 mmbf in 4”-12” of which 35% is 9”-12”
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Important!!
Catherine M. Mater
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
21
COIC Investor Landscape
Best mill siting – Douglas fir
NF – 34.4 mmbf/yr.
Redmond
Bend
March 2006
BLM – 9 mmbf/yr.
Private – 215 mmbf/yr.
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
22
COIC Investor Landscape
Best mill siting – Juniper
NF
Redmond
Bend
March 2006
BLM – 4.7 mmbf/yr.
Private
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
23
What Happened Next ?
9 COPWRR stakeholder Advisory Council
decides CROP a top priority.
9 Oregon Governor designates CROP an Oregon
Solutions Project.
9 CROP Project Team develops Declaration of
Cooperation.
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
24
January 20, 2005
CROP Declaration of Cooperation
An uncommon alliance occurs: organizations sign
the CROP Declaration of Cooperation, outlining
the ways in which they will work together to
implement CROP.
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
25
CROP Declaration of Cooperation Signators
Industry
NW Wood Products
Assoc.
Warm Springs Forest
Products Ind.
Government
Governor’s Office
Environmental
OR Economic & Community
Devel. Dept.
Sisters Forest Planning
Committee
Agency
Oregon Dept. of Energy
USFS Region 6
OR Dept. of Fish & Wildlife
OR/WA State BLM
OR Dept. of Environmental
Quality
Deschutes National
Forest
Oregon Dept. of Forestry
Sustainable Northwest
OR Natural Resources
Council
Friends of the Metolius
Ochoco National Forest
Prineville BLM
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
26
CROP Project Team in place to . . .
. . . drill down: refine the
data for `bankability’
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
27
Drilling down:
9 Material Condition: Green vs dead (% moisture content)
9 Material Status: Standing; down scattered or decked; piled
9 WUI acres & Non WUI acres
9 Site conditions: habitat protection measures required, slope
conditions, NEPA completed.
9 Environmental & political concerns: (e.g. riparian zone,
roadless area, or sensitive habitat?)
9 Economics: (e.g. what are the harvest & transportation costs?)
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
28
CROP planning protocols established:
• track supply provision
• track levelization of supply
• development of a “shelf stock” of approved projects
• identify product opportunities for “unmerchantable”
• track environmental performance
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
29
Recent Development – CROP in Action!!
January 2006: MOU signed committing federal
agencies to offer a minimum of 8,000 acres/year (over
20 years) of biomass in the CROP landscape.
CROP database for web use now in development
(businesses in region already developing investment
plans for CROP supply).
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
March 2006
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30
Catherine M. Mater
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
March 2006
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31
Catherine M. Mater
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
32
2006 National CROP Pilots
•
27 National Forests
•
79 RDs
•
28 BLM Districts
•
Multiple state and
county agencies
•
Multiple Indian Nations
SC CROP
2 circles
MS CROP
2 circles: Katrina
and Rita
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
33
Potential for CROP as a new supply/investment tool?
We think excellent potential . . .
. . . Just may have to look at
resource offering from a
different angle!
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater
Denver Bioenergy and Wood Products
34
For more information:
Scott Aycock:
Program Administrator - COIC
Redmond, Oregon
tel: (541) 548-9252 fax: (541) 548-9549
E-mail: [email protected]
Catherine M. Mater:
President—Mater Engineering
Senior Fellow – The Pinchot Institute for Conservation
Corvallis, Oregon; Washington, DC
tel: (541) 753-7335 fax: (541) 752-2952; cell: (541) -60-5526
E-mail: [email protected]
March 2006
Mater Engineering, Ltd.
Catherine M. Mater