This chapter addresses the major
developments in world trade over the
last year and its relationship to GDP.
WORLD TRADE DEVELOPMENTS
I. World trade developments
i
The Highlights
Merchandise trade takes a major tumble
An upward turn in merchandise trade in the 2nd quarter of 2009
China becomes the leading merchandise exporter
Merchandise trade within regions remains
greater than trade between regions
Trade in commercial services also affected by the crisis
Commercial services in Europe and the CIS are the hardest hit
The EU is the largest supplier of services to the United States
World Trade Organization
International Trade Statistics 2010
3
WORLD TRADE DEVELOPMENTS
i
Merchandise trade takes a major tumble
• World merchandise exports took a major tumble
in 2009, declining by 12 per cent; world GDP also
declined but at a much lower rate of 2.4 per cent.
• The steep fall in trade is due to a combination of
factors, such as weak demand, falling commodity
prices, global supply chains, the simultaneous
impact of the economic crisis across countries
and regions, and limited access to credit in
general, and trade finance in particular.
• In 2001 world merchandise trade declined
due to the bursting of the dot.com bubble and
the impact of the 9/11 events. The decline
was marginal, however, and coincided with low
but positive GDP growth of 1.6 per cent.
• Merchandise trade has consistently outpaced
GDP growth, peaking in 2004. The rebound
in trade was partly due to the strong rise in
commodity prices and in global demand.
Volume of world merchandise exports and gross domestic product, 2000-2009
12
Volume of
total exports
9
Annual
percentage
change
6
GDP
3
0
-3
-6
-9
-12
-15
2000-09 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
An upward turn in merchandise trade in the 2nd quarter of 2009
• In 2008, growth of world merchandise trade peaked
in July, fell drastically in August and registered a
weak recovery in September, before the collapse
of Lehman Brothers signalled the beginning of the
economic recession. Thereafter, trade entered
into a phase of steep decline, falling each month
until starting to level out in February 2009.
• Following a series of coordinated economic stimulus
packages, trade started to grow again in March
2009 comparable to the level of world trade in early
2006, though the growth was from a low base.
• Despite the recovery in March, world merchandise
trade dropped by 23 per cent in 2009 (in
nominal terms) compared with 2008, the
greatest decline in more than 50 years.
Monthly merchandise trade, aggregate of 70 economies
120
Exports
110
Imports
Indices,
January
2008=100 100
90
80
70
60
JAN MAR
08
08
4
SEPT
08
JAN MAR
09
09
SEPT
08
JAN MAR
10
10
World Trade Organization
International Trade Statistics 2010
• In 2009, China overtook Germany as the
lead exporter of merchandise. The United
States remained in third position.
• China’s share in world merchandise imports
increased from 6.9 per cent in 2008 to 7.9 per cent
in 2009, resulting in China becoming the second
largest world importer. China, Germany and the
United States remain well ahead of other countries
in terms of the total value of imports and exports.
• The United States remained the world’s
leading importer. However, its share in
world imports was reduced from 13.1 per
cent in 2008 to 12.7 per cent in 2009.
WORLD TRADE DEVELOPMENTS
China becomes the leading merchandise exporter
i
Leading economies of merchandise trade, 2009
1980
1780
United States
1580
1380
China
1180
Imports
(Billion USD)
980
Germany
780
France
Japan
580
380
Netherlands
180
0
80
180
280
380
480
580
680
780
880
Exports
(Billion USD)
980 1080 1180 1280
Merchandise trade within regions remains
greater than trade between regions
• Trade within regions dominates world
trade. Europe and Asia remain their own top
trading destinations.
• The trade flows of Europe, Asia and North
America with the Middle East, the Commonwealth
of Independent States (CIS), Africa and Central
and South America and the Caribbean (CSC)
are less significant. For the Middle East, the CIS,
Africa and CSC, the main export destinations
remain Europe, Asia and North America.
• In 2009, trade within Europe accounted for 72
per cent of European trade. More than half of
Asia’s exports (52 per cent) remained within
Asia. Some 48 per cent of North America’s
exports remained in North America.
World merchandise exports by region and destination, 2009
EUROPE
ASIA
EUR
NAX
ASI
EUR
AFR
MEA
CSC
MIDDLE EAST
MEA
NORTH AMERICA
CSC
ASI
NAX
AFR
MEA
NAX
CIS
CSC
OTHERS
CIS
EUR
CSC
EUR
MEA
AFR
C
ASI
EUR
OTHERS
AFRICA
CIS
ASI
NAX
EUR
NAX
ASI
CIS
CSC
ASI
OTHERS
EUR
NAX
ASI
OTHERS
NAX: North America / CSC: Central and South America and the Caribbean / EUR: Europe
CIS: Commonwealth of Independent States / AFR: Africa / MEA: Middle East / ASI: Asia
World Trade Organization
International Trade Statistics 2010
5
1965
WORLD TRADE DEVELOPMENTS
960
1970
1975
GDP
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
60
2008
JAN MAR
08
08
Exports total
SEPT
08
JAN MAR
09
09
Trade in commercial services also affected by the crisis
• In 2009, world exports of commercial services
declined by 12 per cent, to US$ 3,350
billion, as a result of the global crisis.
• At the lowest point of the economic crisis, in the
second quarter of 2009, commercial services
dropped by almost 20 per cent on average yearon-year. World exports started to recover quickly in
the second half of the year, but from a low base.
i
• Preliminary data for the first quarter of
2010 confirm an upward trend.
World exports of commercial services, Q1 2008–Q4 2009
25
Percentage
change,
year-on-year
20
2008
15
2009
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Commercial services in Europe and the CIS are the hardest hit
• In 2009, Europe’s exports of commercial
services, accounting for almost half of
world exports, declined by 14 per cent.
• In the CIS, the region recording the
most rapid growth in 2008, exports of
commercial services fell by 17 per cent.
• Asia’s exports decreased by 12 per cent
in 2009. In North America and Africa, the
decline was by 9 per cent. Central and South
America and the Caribbean was the least
affected region, with a decline of 8 per cent.
• Although all regions were showing signs of
recovery by the second half of 2009, African
countries were the most dynamic, with
exports recording a 1 per cent growth.
Exports of commercial services by selected region, 2008-2009
50
1st half
2008
40
30
2nd half
2008
20
Percentage
10
change,
year-on-year
1st half
2009
0
2nd half
2009
-10
-20
-30
-40
North
America
6
C&S
America
Europe
CIS
Africa
Asia
World Trade Organization
International Trade Statistics 2010
SEPT
08
JAN M
10
1
• In 2007, services supplied to the United States through majority-owned foreign affiliates reached
US$ 672 billion.
• The EU accounted for US$ 366 billion, or some
54.5 per cent of the total services provided.
EU foreign affiliates provided services mostly
in finance and insurance, wholesale and
retail trade, and in the information sector.
• Services by Japanese foreign affiliates
represented 14 per cent of the total services
supplied to the United States. This was followed
by Canada (9.6 per cent), Switzerland (7.4
per cent) and Bermuda (4.2 per cent).
WORLD TRADE DEVELOPMENTS
The EU is the largest supplier of services to the United States
i
Services supplied to the United States through majority-owned foreign
affiliates (FATS) and through cross-border trade (BOP) by origin, 2007
400
350
$ Billion
FATS
300
BOP
250
200
150
100
50
0
EU(27)
Japan
World Trade Organization
International Trade Statistics 2010
Canada Switzerland Bermuda
Australia
Korea,
Republic of
India
7