6/8/2015
BLM
June 8, 2015 – Salem; June 9, 2015 Roseburg
Stewart Allen, Socioeconomist, BLM
Clive Graham, Principal, Environmental Resources Management
Mark Buckley, Partner, ECONorthwest
Resource Management Plans for Western Oregon
Socioeconomics
1
– economic growth and stability; and
– social capacity and resiliency.
• To address these topics, the BLM assessed:
1. the value of goods and services derived from BLMadministered lands
2. economic activity in the planning area
3. county payments
4. economic stability
5. capacity and resiliency of communities
6. environmental justice
7. cost to the BLM to implement the alternatives
BLM
• The socioeconomic resources analysis has two
broad emphases:
Resource Management Plans for Western Oregon
Content and approach
• 360 degree approach
6/8/2015
2
– Purpose: identify changes in valuable goods and services
provided by BLM-administered lands
– Identify end uses of goods and services, via markets and nonmarket pathways
– Valuation method is based on the type of benefit, to understand
scarcity and demand
– Focus on differences among alternatives
6/8/2015
BLM
• Methods
Resource Management Plans for Western Oregon
1. How would the alternatives affect the supply, demand, and value
of goods and services derived from BLM-administered lands?
3
– Timber harvest revenue would be greatest under Alt. C
– Total acreage designated for Recreation Management Areas
varies substantially across alternatives, greatest under Alt. D
6/8/2015
BLM
• Environmental Effects
Resource Management Plans for Western Oregon
1. How would the alternatives affect the supply, demand, and value
of goods and services derived from BLM-administered lands?
4
– Total acreage designated for Recreation Management Areas
varies substantially across alternatives, greatest under Alt. D
BLM
• Environmental Effects
Resource Management Plans for Western Oregon
1. How would the alternatives affect the supply, demand, and value
of goods and services derived from BLM-administered lands?
– All alternatives include $ billions of carbon sequestration
– Not all benefits are monetized, but most (not all) do vary across
alternatives
6/8/2015
5
– output production from resource management programs,
e.g., timber, recreation, minerals
– agency expenditures
– Federal payments to local governments
• Two sets of economic models: economic areas, and
individual counties
• Key analytical outputs are employment (jobs) and earnings
from:
– the sum of all direct effects triggered by spending or
production,
– plus supply chain (indirect) effects in supporting industries, and
– other (induced) effects from industry employees spending
payrolls.
6/8/2015
BLM
• The BLM’s management of public lands triggers economic
effects in three ways:
Resource Management Plans for Western Oregon
2. How would the alternatives affect economic activity in the
planning area derived from BLM-administered lands?
6
– As the BLM timber harvest changes, market forces prompt
private timberland owners to adjust their harvest volumes.
• Under all alternatives except Alternative D, the BLM
recreation program would remain the second largest
generator of jobs.
BLM
Environmental Effects
• Changes in timber harvest are the primary influences on
projected future BLM-based employment and earnings
• Data show effects for the year 2018.
• Effects are due mainly to timber volume, but composition
of log sizes is also important
• Effects of the alternatives would range from a low of 6,900
jobs and $304 million in earnings (Alternative D) to a high of
12,419 jobs and $584 million in earnings (Alternative C).
Resource Management Plans for Western Oregon
2. How would the alternatives affect economic activity in the
planning area derived from BLM-administered lands?
– Under Alternative D it would rank first, but second or third with
respect to earnings (lower wage jobs)
6/8/2015
7
– Alternative D, about 200 jobs.
– Alternative C, over 700 jobs,
– Other alternatives, from 300 to 500 jobs.
• Effects would vary across districts. Except for the
Medford District, Alternative C would have the largest
employment and earnings increases across all district
model areas and for the planning area as a whole.
• Cumulative effects: analyzed as comparison to the
No Action alternative.
BLM
Environmental Effects
• Payments to counties; analyzed under the formula in
the O&C Act, would generate:
Resource Management Plans for Western Oregon
2. How would the alternatives affect economic activity in the
planning area derived from BLM-administered lands?
– Under Alternatives A, B and D , BLM-based employment
would drop, though not in all districts.
– Largest effects would be in Coos Bay and Roseburg
6/8/2015
8
• Purpose: understand the effect for counties of
alternatives on county payments
• Secure Rural Schools payments are generally
declining
• The future of county payment calculations is
unclear
• Calculations based on assumption that if SRS
ceases, payments revert to timber revenuebased calculation
6/8/2015
BLM
Methods
Resource Management Plans for Western Oregon
Issue 3. What would be the effect of alternatives on payments
distributed to counties from activities on BLM- administered
lands?
9
6/8/2015
BLM
Environmental Effects
• Secure Rural Schools payments are a major share of revenue in a few
counties
• Under existing calculations, county payments would likely be greatest
under Alt. C
Resource Management Plans for Western Oregon
Issue 3. What would be the effect of alternatives on payments
distributed to counties from activities on BLM- administered
lands?
10
– the magnitude and volatility of growth rates for all
employment and earnings for all industries
– rates for those industries that BLM most affects i.e.,
timber and recreation
• Coefficient of variation indicates volatility.
Stability is the inverse of volatility.
– highly volatile growth rates indicate long-term
instability,
– modest to low volatility of growth rates indicates
long-term stability
6/8/2015
BLM
• Explores growth and stability over the long term
• For1969-2007 (six national business cycles )
analyzed:
Resource Management Plans for Western Oregon
Issue 4. How would the alternatives contribute to economic
stability in the planning area?
11
– These areas also exceeded national volatility of employment
and earnings growth percent, which indicates instability.
• Growth rates in the southern half of the planning area
mostly lagged behind the U.S.
– Medford is an exception (regional service center , wellbalanced economy?)
• Over the long-term (1969-2007), timber-based industries
nationally exhibited low or negative growth rates with high
volatility compared with the U.S. economy as a whole,
– these industries tend to be inherently volatile.
• Increases in timber industry activity in the planning area
could bring additional exposure to greater economic
instability
6/8/2015
BLM
• Salem-Portland MSA, Salem-Other, and Eugene all
exceeded the national growth rate.
Resource Management Plans for Western Oregon
Issue 4. How would the alternatives contribute to economic
stability in the planning area?
12
– The No Action alternative, Alternative B, and Alternative
A would have comparatively lesser effects on jobs and
earnings and lower potential for increased economic
instability.
– Alternative D would show jobs and earnings reductions,
but may moderate economic instabilities.
• Greater economic stability alone does not guarantee
an increase in the economic well-being of an area.
• Industrial specialization can be beneficial to an area,
though it may, at the same time, subject the area to
greater volatility
6/8/2015
BLM
• Alternative C would have the greatest effect on jobs
and earnings, but also the greatest potential for
increased economic instability.
Resource Management Plans for Western Oregon
Issue 4. How would the alternatives contribute to economic
stability in the planning area?
13
• Analysis looks at effects of the alternatives on small
and mid-size cities and tribal communities
– Many communities in western Oregon have
experienced large socioeconomic changes
• Analysis uses the lenses of capacity and resiliency,
– i.e., measures of a community’s ability to face change
• 13 cities examined; 10% weighted sample of 134
cities, plus 7 tribal communities
• Created data baseline from 13 measures of capacity
and resiliency, e.g., education, community wealth.
– Data limitations, especially for tribes.
• Personal interviews – key to understanding
community stories, and context of data
BLM
resiliency of different types of communities in the planning area?
Resource Management Plans for Western Oregon
Issue 5. How would the RMP alternatives affect the capacity and
– Resulted in baseline adjustments.
6/8/2015
14
• How does the BLM affect communities? Community
perspective:
– BLM’s management impacts on the broader economy,
– Its impacts on the counties – which ripple through to the
communities.
Capacity/
Resiliency
baseline
High
Grants Pass, Sublimity
Medium
Junction City, Molalla, St. Helens,
Not Assigned
Confederated Tribes of the Grand Ronde, Confederated
Tribes of Coos Lower Umpqua and Siuslaw Indians,
Confederated Tribes of the Siletz Indians, Confederated
Tribes of Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon, Coquille
Indian Tribe, Cow Creek Band of Umpqua Tribe of Indians,
Klamath Tribes
6/8/2015
Low
Coquille, Florence, Gold Beach, Klamath Falls,
Lincoln City, Winston
BLM
resiliency of different types of communities in the planning area?
Resource Management Plans for Western Oregon
Issue 5. How would the RMP alternatives affect the capacity and
Very Low
Drain, Rogue River
15
Effect on Community by Alternative
(See Table 3-198 for Explanation)
Community
Employment
effects
6/8/2015
Grants Pass
Sublimity
Junction City
Molalla
St. Helens
Coquille
Florence
Gold Beach
Klamath Falls
Lincoln City
Winston
Drain
Rogue River
No Action
+++
+++
+++
Alt. A
++
+
++
+
-++
--
++
++
++
+++
+
++
Alt. B
+++
++
+++
+
++
-+++
-+
++
+++
Alt. C
+++
+++
+++
++
+++
++
+++
++
++
+++
+++
+++
+++
Alt. D
+
+
-+
--
BLM
resiliency of different types of communities in the planning area?
Resource Management Plans for Western Oregon
Issue 5. How would the RMP alternatives affect the capacity and
+
16
• Explores potential for disproportionally high
and adverse effects on minority, low-income,
or Tribal populations or communities
• Criteria used to identify populations or
communities
– 64 meet one or both minority criteria
• Mostly in Salem District
– 122 meet one or both low-income criteria
• Effects analysis based on changes in
employment and county payments
6/8/2015
BLM
impacts?
Resource Management Plans for Western Oregon
Issue 6. Would the alternatives result in environmental justice
17
• Conclusions
– Minority populations
• No disproportionately negative effects on
employment in minority counties.
• Minority populations in Coos Bay, Klamath Falls,
and Roseburg could experience negative
effects related to jobs
– Low income populations
• Employment effects in Coos, Curry, Douglas,
and Klamath Counties would be
disproportionately negative under Alts A and D
• Employment effects would be
disproportionately negative for Coos and Curry
Counties under Alt. B
6/8/2015
BLM
impacts?
Resource Management Plans for Western Oregon
Issue 6. Would the alternatives result in environmental justice
18
• Management of the BLM’s timber program in FY
2012 accounted for +/- 44 percent, of the total
$109 million budget.
– The remaining 56 percent covered all other
programs such as recreation, mining, fisheries.
• All the alternatives except for Alternative D
would result in an increase in the BLM’s budget
compared to current
– Alternative C,would require the highest budget.
• Selection of an alternative does not authorize
funding to any specific project or activity nor
does it directly tie into the agency’s budget
through the Federal budget process.
6/8/2015
BLM
alternatives?
Resource Management Plans for Western Oregon
Issue 7. What would be the cost to the BLM to implement the
19
Event
April 24, 2015
Release of Draft RMP/EIS
April 24-July 23, 2015
Comment Period
May-December 2015
Develop and analyze Proposed
RMP/Final EIS
Winter 2016
Publish Proposed RMP/Final EIS
Winter-Spring 2016
Protest Period, Governor’s
Consistency Review, Resolution
Spring 2016
Record of Decision
To submit comments:
Interactive Map: www.blm.gov/or/plans/rmpswesternoregon/interactivemap
Email: [email protected]
Postal: Draft EIS for Western Oregon
P.O. Box 2965
Portland, OR 97204
6/8/2015
BLM
Date
Resource Management Plans for Western Oregon
Next Steps
20