Appendix H – Fire and Fuels Issue 1 – Assumptions and Methods Methods Study Area The Nature Conservancy, under an agreement with the BLM, assessed forest vegetation restoration needs across five million acres of forest across southwestern Oregon (Figure H-1), including 1.2 million acres of BLM-administered lands (Figure H-2). This geography generally includes the extent of forests with historically frequent fires within SW Oregon. These forests cover very broad climatic, edaphic, and topographic gradients with varying natural disturbance regimes. Figure H-1. Analysis area within the State of Oregon 1305 | P a g e Figure H-2. BLM-administered lands within the analysis area Note: Brown is BLM, blue is the Roseburg District, grey is the Medford District, and green is the western half of Klamath Falls Field Office. Core Concepts and Data Sources The Nature Conservancy built upon the conceptual framework of the LANDFIRE and Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC) programs (Barrett et al. 2010, Rollins 2009) and incorporated Oregon and BLM specific datasets. The Nature Conservancy’s assessment of forest vegetation departure is based on four 1306 | P a g e primary data inputs: (1) a classification and map of forested biophysical settings, (2) natural range of variability (NRV) reference conditions for each biophysical setting, (3) a delineation of ‘landscape units’ for each biophysical setting, and (4) a map of present day forest vegetation structure. Mapping Forested Biophysical Settings Biophysical settings are potential vegetation units associated with characteristic land capabilities and disturbance regimes (Barrett et al. 2010). Many different forested biophysical settings are found across Washington and Oregon based on vegetation, soils, climate, topography, and historic disturbance regimes (Keane et al. 2007, Pratt et al. 2006, Rollins 2009). They provide the framework for describing fire regimes. The Nature Conservancy mapped biophysical settings using the 30 m pixel Integrated Landscape Assessment Projects’ Potential Vegetation Type (PVT) dataset (Halofsky et al. 2014), which compiled previous potential forest vegetation classification and mapping efforts including Simpson (2007) and Henderson et al. (2011). The Nature Conservancy also incorporated subsequent refinements to Potential Vegetation Type mapping in southwestern Oregon by Henderson (2013). A biophysical setting model from either the LANDFIRE Rapid Assessment or the later LANDFIRE National program (Rollins 2009, Ryan and Opperman 2013) was assigned to each Potential Vegetation Type mapping unit (Table H-1). Assignments were made by staff in the U.S. Forest Service Pacific Northwest Region Ecology Program based upon the geographic, environmental, and biological characteristics of the biophysical setting models and the Potential Vegetation Type mapping units. The Nature Conservancy defined forests across our study area as ‘forest’ or ‘forest and woodland’ land cover class in the biophysical setting model. U.S. Forest Service National Forest System lands are typically considered ‘forest’ if they have > 10 percent tree canopy cover, and this generally coincides with forest, and forest and woodland land cover classes (USDA FS 2004). Table H-1. ILAP PVTs in the analysis area to LANDFIRE BpS model crosswalk Integrated Landscape Assessment LANDFIRE Project Potential Vegetation Type Biophysical Settings (ILAP PVT) (BpS) Douglas-fir-White oak 0210290 Douglas-fir–Dry 0710270 Western hemlock R#DFHEwt Mixed Conifer–Warm/Dry R#MCONdy Mixed Conifer–Moist R#MCONms Douglas-fir–Moist R#MCONsw Tan oak-Douglas-fir–Ultramafic R#MEVG Oregon white oak–Ponderosa pine R#OAPI Lodgepole pine R#PICOpu Ponderosa pine-Lodgepole pine R#PIPOm Ponderosa pine–Xeric R#PIPOxe Shasta red fir–Moist R#REFI Tan oak-Douglas-fir–Moist R#TAOAco Jeffery Pine R#PIJEsp Mixed Conifer–Cold R#SPFI 1307 | P a g e Natural Range of Variability Reference Conditions Each biophysical setting model is composed of a suite of 3–5 successional/structural stages (s-classes). These classes typically include: (1) Early Development, (2) Mid-development Closed Canopy, (3) Middevelopment Open Canopy, (4) Late Development Open Canopy, and (5) Late Development Closed Canopy. The definition of each s-class in terms of species composition, stand structure, and stand age is unique for each biophysical setting (Table H-2 and Table H-3). The percentage of a biophysical setting in each s-class will differ depending on disturbance frequencies and/or intensities. The LANDFIRE and FRCC conceptual framework assumes that, given natural processes, a biophysical setting will have a characteristic range of variation in the proportion in each s-class and that an effective indicator of ‘ecological condition’ for a given landscape is the relative abundance of each s-class within biophysical settings (Barrett et al. 2010, Keane et al. 2011). 1308 | P a g e Table H-2. BLM-administered lands by s-class in terms of species composition, stand structure, and stand age for each biophysical setting Standard LANDFIRE 5–Box Models LANDFIRE BpS 0210290 0710270 R#DFHEwt R#MCONdy R#MCONms R#MCONsw R#MEVG R#OAPI R#PICOpu R#PIPOm R#PIPOxe R#REFI R#TAOAco R#PIJEsp LAND-FIRE BpS F#SPFI Included in Early Seral (A) Mid-seral Closed (B) Mid-seral Open (C) Late-seral Open (D) Late-seral Closed (E) BLM Dry Size Class* Canopy Closure Size Class* Canopy Closure Size Class* Canopy Closure Size Class* Canopy Closure Size Class* Canopy Closure Extent Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max x 1 2 0 100 3 4 31 100 3 4 0 31 5 5 0 30 5 5 31 100 x 1 2 0 100 3 4 41 100 3 4 0 40 5 5 0 40 5 5 41 100 x 1 2 0 100 3 4 61 100 3 4 0 60 5 5 0 60 5 5 61 100 x 1 2 0 100 3 4 41 100 3 4 0 40 5 5 0 40 5 5 41 100 x 1 2 0 100 3 4 56 100 3 4 0 55 5 5 0 55 5 5 56 100 x 1 2 0 100 3 4 41 100 3 4 0 40 5 5 0 40 5 5 41 100 x 1 2 0 100 3 4 41 100 3 4 0 40 5 5 0 40 5 5 41 100 x 1 2 0 100 3 4 31 100 3 4 0 30 5 5 0 30 5 5 31 100 x 1 2 0 100 3 4 41 100 3 4 0 40 5 5 0 40 5 5 41 100 x 1 2 0 100 3 4 31 100 3 4 0 30 5 5 0 30 5 5 31 100 x 1 2 0 100 3 4 26 100 3 4 0 25 5 5 0 25 5 5 26 100 x 1 2 0 100 3 4 41 100 3 4 0 40 5 5 0 40 5 5 41 100 x 1 2 0 100 3 4 61 100 3 4 0 60 5 5 0 60 5 5 61 100 x 1 2 0 100 3 4 41 100 3 4 0 40 5 5 0 40 5 5 41 100 Included in Early Seral (A) Mid-seral Closed (B) Mid-seral Open (C) Late-seral Open (D) Late-seral Closed (E) BLM Dry Size Class Canopy Closure Size Class Canopy Closure Size Class Canopy Closure Size Class Canopy Closure Size Class Canopy Closure Extent Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max x* 1 2 0 10 1 2 11 100 3 4 41 100 3 4 0 40 5 5 0 100 * BLM size-class values are numeric representations of structure classes used to categorize early, stand establishment, young, mature, and older complex structural stages (see Vegetation Modeling – Forest Structural Stage Classification Appendix C). The BLM used vegetation-modeling canopy cover to determine open and closed status. Note: The term canopy closure in this table is synonymous with canopy cover, and is based on modeled cover and not field based closure measurements. 1309 | P a g e Table H-3. Non-BLM-administered lands by s-class in terms of species composition, stand structure, and stand age for each biophysical setting Standard LANDFIRE 5–Box Models LANDFIRE BpS 0210290 0710270 R#DFHEwt R#MCONdy R#MCONms R#MCONsw R#MEVG R#OAPI R#PICOpu R#PIPOm R#PIPOxe R#REFI R#TAOAco R#PIJEsp LAND-FIRE BpS R#SPFI Early Seral (A) Size Class Canopy Closure Min Max Min Max 1 2 0 100 1 2 0 100 1 2 0 100 1 2 0 100 1 2 0 100 1 2 0 100 1 2 0 100 1 2 0 100 1 2 0 100 1 2 0 100 1 2 0 100 1 2 0 100 1 2 0 100 1 2 0 100 Mid-seral Closed (B) Size Class Canopy Closure Min Max Min Max 3 5 31 100 3 6 41 100 3 5 61 100 3 5 41 100 3 5 56 100 3 5 41 100 3 4 41 100 3 3 31 100 3 5 41 100 3 4 31 100 3 5 26 100 3 5 41 100 3 4 61 100 3 5 41 100 Mid-seral Open (C) Size Class Canopy Closure Min Max Min Max 3 5 0 31 3 6 0 40 3 5 0 60 3 5 0 40 3 5 0 55 3 5 0 40 3 4 0 40 3 3 0 30 3 5 0 40 3 4 0 30 3 5 0 25 3 5 0 40 3 4 0 60 3 5 0 40 Late-seral Open (D) Size Class Canopy Closure Min Max Min Max 6 7 0 30 7 7 0 40 6 7 0 60 6 7 0 40 6 7 0 55 6 7 0 40 5 7 0 40 4 7 0 30 6 7 0 40 5 7 0 30 6 7 0 25 6 7 0 40 5 7 0 60 6 7 0 40 Late-seral Closed (E) Size Class Canopy Closure Min Max Min Max 6 7 31 100 7 7 41 100 6 7 61 100 6 7 41 100 6 7 56 100 6 7 41 100 5 7 41 100 4 7 31 100 6 7 41 100 5 7 31 100 6 7 26 100 6 7 41 100 5 7 61 100 6 7 41 100 Early Seral (A) Size Class Canopy Closure Min Max Min Max 1 2 0 10 Mid-seral Closed (B) Size Class Canopy Closure Min Max Min Max 1 2 11 100 Mid-seral Open (C) Size Class Canopy Closure Min Max Min Max 3 4 41 100 Late-seral Open (D) Size Class Canopy Closure Min Max Min Max 3 4 0 40 Late-seral Closed (E) Size Class Canopy Closure Min Max Min Max 5 7 0 100 Note: The term canopy closure in this table is synonymous with canopy cover, and is based on modeled cover percent and not field based closure measurements. 1310 | P a g e The Natural Range of Variability (NRV) reference models describe how the relative distribution of s-classes for a biophysical setting were shaped by succession and disturbance prior to European settlement and provide a comparison to present-day forest conditions (Keane et al. 2009, Landres et al. 1999). LANDFIRE biophysical setting models are used to develop NRV estimates using state-andtransition models incorporating pre-European settlement rates of succession and disturbance. Rates were determined through an intensive literature and expert review process (Keane et al. 2002, Keane et al. 2007, Pratt et al. 2006, and Rollins 2009). The distribution of s-classes for each biophysical setting, which results from running state-and-transition models for many time-steps (Table H-4) does not represent a specific historical date, but instead approximates characteristic conditions that result from natural biological and physical processes operating on a landscape over a relatively long time. The NRV is frequently represented by a single value, the mean relative abundance of each s-class from a collection of Monte Carlo state-and-transition model simulations (e.g., Low et al. 2010, Shlisky et al. 2005, and Weisz et al. 2009). However, The Nature Conservancy developed and used ranges for each s-class resulting from the stochastic variation within the state-and-transition models. The Nature Conservancy ran 10 simulations for each biophysical setting state-and-transition model over 1,000 pixels and 1,000 annual time steps. Simulations were started with an equal portion in each s-class and it took 200–400 years for the initial trends to stabilize. The Nature Conservancy calculated the range for each s-class as ± 2 standard deviations from the mean abundance from the last 500 time steps (Provencher et al. 2008). Simulations were modeled using the Vegetation Dynamics Development Tool (ESSA Technologies 2007). 1311 | P a g e Table H-4. Reference condition range by Potential Vegetation Type (PVT)/Biophysical Setting (BpS) LANDFIRE BpS 0210290 BpS Name Mediterranean California Mixed Oak Woodland Mediterranean California Dry-Mesic Mixed Conifer Forest and Woodland R#DFHEwt Douglas-fir Hemlock–Wet Mesic R#MCONdy Mixed Conifer–Eastside Dry R#MCONms Mixed Conifer–Eastside Mesic R#MCONsw Mixed Conifer–Southwest Oregon R#MEVG California Mixed Evergreen North R#OAPI Oregon White Oak/Ponderosa Pine R#PICOpu Lodgepole Pine–Pumice Soils R#PIJEsp Pine Savannah–Ultramafic R#PIPOm Dry Ponderosa Pine–Mesic R#PIPOxe Ponderosa Pine–Xeric R#REFI Red Fir R#TAOCco Oregon Coastal Tanoak R#SPFI Spruce-Fir 0710270 1312 | P a g e Early Seral (A) Mid-seral (B) LAND LAND VDDT HRV HRV VDDT HRV FIRE FIRE Mean Low High Mean Low RC RC 10 9.3 7 11 1 1.1 0 Mid-seral (C) Late-seral Open (D) Late-seral Closed (E) LAND LAND LAND HRV VDDT HRV HRV VDDT HRV HRV VDDT HRV HRV FIRE FIRE FIRE High Mean Low High Mean Low High Mean Low High RC RC RC 2 20 21.2 19 24 64 64.9 62 68 5 3.5 2 5 10 9.0 7 11 5 6.3 5 8 20 20.1 18 22 40 42.3 40 45 25 22.3 20 25 5 15 15 15 15 25 20 15 10 25 10 10 3 4.6 14.0 14.5 14.6 16.6 25.1 21.6 15.0 10.8 23.6 6.9 9.7 3.0 3 12 12 12 14 22 19 13 9 21 5 8 2 6 16 17 17 19 28 24 17 13 26 8 12 4 15 1 40 5 10 5 15 0 10 5 20 10 22 17.0 0.7 44.4 2.9 7.5 3.8 13.9 1.0 6.9 5.8 22.5 12.5 22.3 15 0 42 2 6 3 12 0 5 4 20 10 19 19 1 47 4 9 5 16 3 8 7 25 15 25 1 30 15 10 50 20 50 45 35 25 15 50 30 0.6 31.6 12.5 12.6 51.6 19.2 47.7 44.0 37.2 22.4 13.2 47.4 24.6 0 29 10 11 48 17 45 41 34 20 11 44 22 1 34 15 14 55 22 51 47 40 25 15 51 27 4 40 10 50 20 47 10 40 40 40 20 25 20 3.5 41.5 9.6 51.9 20.5 48.7 10.9 39.0 42.4 43.2 21.9 26.2 20.6 2 38 8 49 18 45 9 36 39 41 19 23 18 5 45 11 55 23 52 13 42 45 46 24 29 23 75 14 20 20 5 3 5 0 5 5 35 5 25 74.3 12.3 18.9 18.1 3.8 3.2 5.9 1.0 2.8 4.9 35.5 4.2 29.4 71 10 17 16 3 2 4 0 2 4 33 3 27 77 14 21 20 5 4 7 2 4 6 39 5 32 Landscape Units Following the LANDFIRE and FRCC conceptual framework, The Nature Conservancy defined discrete landscape units to compare present-day forests to modeled Natural Range of Variability reference conditions (Barrett et al. 2010, Pratt et al. 2006). Landscape units were chosen that would adequately represent the scale of disturbance of a particular Potential Vegetation Type and were composed of forested lands within a BLM management district. This would allow summarization in an accurate and usable way for managers (Figure H-3). Figure H-3. Landscape units Present-Day Forest Structure and Composition The Nature Conservancy characterized present-day forest vegetation with the gradient nearest neighbor imputation (GNN, Ohmann and Gregory 2002, Figure 3) datasets produced by the U.S. Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station and Oregon State University Landscape Ecology, Modeling, Mapping, and Analysis research group (www.fsl.orst.edu/lemma) and outputs from the BLM vegetation modeling process (Appendix C). All lands that are outside of BLM ownership used the GNN data for current conditions; the BLMadministered lands used the RMP data. To compare present-day forest vegetation to the Natural Range of Variability reference conditions, The Nature Conservancy mapped the current distribution of s-classes for each biophysical setting using BLM Proposed RMP and alternatives’ data for the BLM-administered lands and GNN data for all other 1313 | P a g e ownerships. S-class mapping was based upon tree canopy cover and tree size thresholds provided for each s-class in the biophysical setting model descriptions (Table H-2 and Table H-3). Departure Analysis Departure in this project is defined as the difference between a modeled reference condition and the current conditions in acres (Figure H-4). In an effort to frame ecological departure appropriately, The Nature Conservancy chose to look at the whole landscape and summarize departure for each analysis area (district) by alternative and the Proposed RMP. This meant that the BLM s-class by alternative and the Proposed RMP (Figure H-5) was mosaicked with the base GNN data (Figure H-6) to create a landscape s-class layer that combined both the BLM data and the GNN data (Figure H-7). Figure H-4. Example landscape unit (strata) departure summary calculation 1314 | P a g e Figure H-5. BLM successional/structural stage (s-class) data for BLM-administered lands in the analysis area 1315 | P a g e Figure H-6. Gradient nearest neighbor (GNN) s-class data for the analysis area 1316 | P a g e Figure H-7. BLM and GNN s-class data combined This process of combining BLM data and GNN data was completed for each alternative and the Proposed RMP and departure was calculated for each of these mosaicked datasets. Eight different landscape s-class layers were developed: Current Condition, No Action alternative, Alternative A, Alternative B, Alternative C, Alternative D, the Proposed RMP, and the No Timber Harvest reference analysis. 1317 | P a g e Departure was calcuated for each combination of Potential Vegetation Type and landscape unit (strata) and summarized as an acre value. Departue can be summarized in a deficit or excess acres of s-class or in a combined overall departure acres; both were summarized in this analysis. All the results were summerized by alternative and analysis unit in Excel, as well as summarys of s-class by alternative to help frame the conversation and discussion in the RMP. References Barrett, S., D. Havlina, J. Jones, W. J. Hann, W. J., C. Frame, D. Hamilton, K. Schon, T. DeMeo, L. Hutter, and J. Menakis. 2010. Interagency Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC) Guidebook, version 3.0. USDA FS, USDI BLM, and The Nature Conservancy. http://www.frcc.gov/. ESSA Technologies. 2007. Vegetation dynamics development tool user guide, version 6.0. ESSA Technologies Ltd., Vancouver, BC. p. 196. Halofsky, J. E., M. K. Creutzburg, and M. A. Hemstrom. 2014. Integrating social, economic, and ecological values across large landscapes. General Technical Report, USDA FS, Pacific Northwest Research Station. Portland, OR. http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/pnw_gtr896.pdf. Henderson, E. 2013. Final Report for Potential Vegetation Mapping Update for Southwestern Oregon. Unpublished report, Oregon State University. Institute for Natural Resources, Oregon State University. Corvallis, OR. 14 pp. Henderson, J. A., R. D. Lesher, D. H. Peter, and C. D. Ringo. 2011. A landscape model for predicting potential natural vegetation of the Olympic Peninsula USA using boundary equations and newly developed environmental variables. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-841. USDA FS, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, OR. 35 pp. http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/pnw_gtr841.pdf. Keane, R. E., R. A. Parsons, and P. F. Hessburg. 2002. Estimating historical range and variation of landscape patch dynamics: limitations of the simulation approach. Ecol. Model. 151(1): 29–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(01)00470-7. Keane, R. E., M. G. Rollins, and Z. L. Zhu. 2007. Using simulated historical time series to prioritize fuel treatments on landscapes across the United States: the LANDFIRE prototype project. Ecol. Model. 204(3): 485–502. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.02.005. Keane, R. E., P. F. Hessburg, P. B. Landres, and F. J. Swanson. 2009. The use of historical range and variability (HRV) in landscape management. For. Ecol. Manage. 258(7): 1025–1037. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.05.035. Keane, R. E., L. M. Holsinger, and R. A. Parsons. 2011. Evaluating indices that measure departure of current landscape composition from historical conditions. RMRS-RP-83. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO. http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_rp083.pdf. Landres, P. B., P. Morgan, and F. J. Swanson. 1999. Overview of the use of natural variability concepts in managing ecological systems. Ecol. Appl. 9(4): 1179–1188. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2641389. Low, G., L. Provencher, and S. L. Abele. 2010. Enhanced conservation action planning: assessing land-scape condition and predicting benefits of conservation strategies. J. Conser. Plan. 6: 36–60. Ohmann, J. L., and M. J. Gregory. 2002. Predictive mapping of forest composition and structure with direct gradient analysis and nearest-neighbor imputation in coastal Oregon, USA. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 32(4): 725–741. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/X02-011. Pratt, S. D., L. M. Holsinger, R. E. Keane, R. E. 2006. Using simulation modeling to assess historical reference conditions for vegetation and fire regimes for the LANDFIRE prototype project. In: Rollins, M. G., and C. K. Frame (Eds.). The LANDFIRE prototype project: nationally consistent and locally relevant geospatial data for wildland fire management. General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-175. USDA FS, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins CO. Provencher, L., J. L. Campbell, and J. Nachlinger. 2008. Implementation of mid-scale fire regime condition class mapping. Int. J. Wildland Fire 17(3): 390–406. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF07066. Rollins, M. G. 2009. LANDFIRE: a nationally consistent vegetation, wildland fire, and fuel assessment. Int. J. Wildland Fire 18: 235–249. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF08088. Ryan, K. C., and T. S. Opperman. 2013. LANDFIRE – a national vegetation/fuels data base for use in fuels treatment, restoration, and suppression planning. For. Ecol. Management 294: 208–216. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2012.11.003. Shlisky, A. J., R. P. Guyette, and K. C. Ryan. 2005. Modeling reference conditions to restore altered fire regimes in oak-hickorypine forests: validating coarse models with local fire history data. In: EastFire Conference Proceedings. George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. pp. 12–13. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.173.3665&rep=rep1&type=pdf. Simpson, M. 2007. Forested plant associations of the Oregon East Cascades. Technical Paper R6-NR-ECOL-TP-03-2007. USDA FS, Pacific Northwest Region, Portland, OR. https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=YZTenR_ByNQC&oi=fnd&pg=PA1&dq=R6-NR-ECOL-TP-032007&ots=ZJDzHqso9g&sig=Ag-KrWiWgwmC-iwngsB28Wk9iOI#v=onepage&q=R6-NR-ECOL-TP-03-2007&f=false. 1318 | P a g e USDA FS. 2004. Standards for mapping of vegetation in the Pacific Northwest Region. USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Region, Portland, OR. 22 pp. Weisz, R., J. Tripeke, and R. Truman. 2009. Evaluating the ecological sustainability of a ponderosa pine ecosystem on the Kaibab Plateau in Northern Arizona. Fire Ecology 5(1): 100–114. http://dx.doi.org/10.4996/fireecology.0501100. Issues 2 and 3 – Assumptions and District-specific Results Issue 2 How would the alternatives affect fire resistance in the fire-adapted dry forests at the stand level? Issue 3 How would the alternatives affect fire hazard at the stand – level within close proximity to developed areas? Common Analytical Assumptions The results of this analysis do not include effects from non-commercial hazardous fuels work taking place in forested or non-forested lands (Table H-5). These types of treatments would contribute toward improving fire resistance and reducing fire hazard similarly among all alternatives and the Proposed RMP. Table H-5. Acres of current condition forested and non-forested BLM-administered lands within the planning area District/ Forest Non-Forest Totals Field Office (Acres) (Acres) (Acres) Coos Bay 304,030 20,206 324,236 Eugene 297,222 13,841 311,063 Klamath Falls 46,773 167,312 214,084 Medford 740,110 66,565 806,675 Roseburg 399,163 24,477 423,640 Salem 374,392 24,765 399,157 Assumptions of General Stand Structural Stages and Fire Interactions Vegetation community structure is an important factor affecting potential fire behavior, postfire effects, fire resistance, and fire hazard. Early Successional The BLM assumes that although Early Successional communities have less than 30 percent canopy cover—resulting in somewhat discontinuous surface fuel loading—this structural stage is typically comprised of highly flammable vegetation (Agee 1993). When combined with open conditions that can increase surface wind speeds and flames lengths (Pollet and Omi 2002, Rothermel 1983), in general, this structural stage presents relatively moderate resistance to replacement fire and moderate fire hazard. 1319 | P a g e Stand Establishment and Young High-density Stands The Stand Establishment and Young High-density stand structural stages maintain low canopy base heights and a combination of highly flammable Early Successional vegetation, along with increased cover. In general, these structural stages present relatively low resistance to replacement fire and high fire hazard (Odion et al. 2004, Weatherspoon and Skinner 1995). Young Low-density Stands Although, the canopy base height may be low in Young Low-density stands, in general, there is greater separation between crowns (vertically and horizontally). This discontinuity in the fuel profile, results in relatively lower canopy bulk densities, moderate fire hazard, and moderate resistance to replacement fire within both the younger and structural legacy components of the stand. Structural Legacies The Stand Establishment and Young High-density stand structural stages maintain low canopy base heights and a combination of highly flammable Early Successional vegetation, along with increased cover. In general, these structural stages present relatively low resistance to replacement fire and high fire hazard (Odion et al. 2004, Weatherspoon and Skinner 1995). However, both Early Successional and Stand Establishment phases with Structural Legacies would have some separation of crown layers between legacy trees and understory vegetation, resulting in somewhat discontinuous ladder fuels and increased fire resistance in Structural Legacies. Pockets of heavy surface and ladder fuels may result in potential mortality to Structural Legacies from cambial damage (trees < 20” DBH have 35–70 percent mortality, USDI BLM 2008) or passive torching. This potential for cambial damage to overstory legacy structures increases along with understory vegetative cover and height (Peterson et al. 2005). Despite some potential separation in crown layers, in general, young high-density stands have high continuous surface and ladder fuel loading, low canopy fuel base heights, and taller vegetation, relative to Early Successional and Stand Establishment vegetation. This fuel profile in the Young High-density stands increases crown fire potential of the young stand component and structural legacies (Odion et al. 2004), resulting in lower relative resistance to replacement fire and higher fire hazard. Overstory canopy cover from Structural Legacies could also partially shelter the stand, reducing surface winds and slowing the drying of fuels (NWCG 2014), and thus help moderate fire behavior. Alternatively, open stand conditions have the potential to increase drying and surface winds and thus flame lengths (Pollet and Omi 2002, Rothermel 1983). Increased winds in combination with low canopy base heights can increase torching potential and fire hazard, therefore no distinction is made between Early Successional, Stand Establishment, and Young stands with Structural Legacies in regards to fire hazard. Mature Single-layered Canopy In general, Mature Single-layered Canopy stands have low surface fuel loading (due to closed canopy shading inhibiting understory growth), higher canopy base heights, and thus a lower probability of torching and crown fire initiation within the stand, creating a low stand-level fire hazard condition (Jain et al. 2012). Although, continuous canopy cover of high canopy bulk density is susceptible to crown fire spread from adjacent stands (Scott and Reinhardt 2001, Jain and Graham 2007, Jain et al. 2012). Mature Multi-layered Canopy and Structurally-complex Mature Multi-layered Canopy and Structurally-complex forests have the potential to exhibit the full range of fire behavior (surface to crown fire). In general, these structural stages have heterogeneous composition, which can alter fire spread (Jain et al. 2012, Finney 2001); and a larger number of large diameter (> 20” DBH) trees with thick bark, which improve stand-level fire resistance and reduce standlevel fire hazard (Agee and Skinner 2005), potentially increasing the likelihood of burning at low- to moderate-severity (Alexander et al. 2006). Multi-aged closed-forest conditions can potentially create a vertical fuel ladder for surface fire to reach the canopy (North et al. 2009) and support accumulations of 1320 | P a g e continuous heavy surface and ladder fuels, and increase the potential for torching and crown fire, significantly reducing resistance to control. Alternatively, these structural types can create influential microclimates and shelter surface winds, harboring conditions that are more likely to result in lowered fire severity (Odion et al. 2004), particularly in topographic locations with low fire probability. Ultimately, fire behavior in these structural stages will result from several factors, including weather, fuel moisture, and topographic influences, along with the vertical and horizontal continuity of the fuel profile. Fire Resistance and Fire Hazard Ratings General assumptions regarding vegetation structural stage classification and the probable fire behavior based on vertical and horizontal fuel profile were used to generate relative stand-level resistance to replacement fire and fire hazard ratings (Table H-6 and Table H7). Table H-6. BLM-defined structural stages and subdivisions, relative stand-level resistance to replacement fire ratings, and assumptions regarding overall fuel profile continuity, and vertical and horizontal fuel continuity Structural Stages Early Successional Stand Establishment Young Highdensity Young Lowdensity Mature Structurallycomplex Subdivisions with Structural Legacies without Structural Legacies with Structural Legacies without Structural Legacies with Structural Legacies without Structural Legacies with Structural Legacies without Structural Legacies Single-layered Canopy Multi-layered Canopy Developed Structurallycomplex Existing Old Forest Existing Very Old Forest Resistance to Replacement Fire Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Low Low Moderate Moderate High Mixed Assumptions Behind Resistance Ratings Entire Fuel Profile Horizontal Fuel Vertical Fuel Continuity Profile Continuity Profile Continuity Semi-discontinuous Semi-discontinuous Semi-discontinuous Semi-discontinuous Continuous Semi-discontinuous Semi-discontinuous Semi-discontinuous Continuous Continuous Continuous Continuous Continuous Continuous Continuous Continuous Continuous Continuous Semi-discontinuous Continuous Semi-discontinuous Semi-discontinuous Continuous Semi-discontinuous Discontinuous Discontinuous Continuous Mixed continuity Mixed continuity Mixed continuity Mixed Mixed continuity Mixed continuity Mixed continuity Mixed Mixed Mixed continuity Mixed continuity Mixed continuity Mixed continuity Mixed continuity Mixed continuity 1321 | P a g e Table H-7. BLM-defined structural stages and subdivisions, relative stand-level fire hazard ratings and assumptions regarding surface fuel loading, canopy base height, and canopy fuel bulk density (continuity) as the basis for the hazard rating Assumptions Behind Hazard Ratings Fire Structural Surface Canopy Canopy Fuel Subdivisions Hazard Stages Fuel Base Bulk Density Rating Loading Height (Continuity) with Structural legacies Moderate Early Moderate Successional without Structural Legacies Moderate with Structural Legacies High Stand Establishment without Structural Legacies High Low Low High with Structural Legacies High Young Stands– High Density without Structural Legacies High with Structural Legacies Moderate Young Stands– Low Density without Structural Legacies Moderate Moderate Single-layered Canopy Low Moderate High Mature Multi-layered Canopy Mixed Developed Structurally-complex Mixed Mixed StructurallyExisting Old Forest Mixed complex Existing Very Old Forest Mixed In general, stands with higher fire resistance have reduced surface fuel loading, lower tree density, large diameter trees of fire-resistant species, increased height to live crown (Brown et al. 2004, Peterson et al. 2005, USDI BLM 2008), and discontinuous horizontal and vertical fuels. Fire hazard refers to the ease of ignition, potential fire behavior, and resistance to control of the fuel complex, defined by the volume and arrangement of several strata, including surface, ladder, and canopy fuels (Calkin et al. 2010). The primary fuel characteristics associated with potential fire behavior and crown fire potential are canopy base height, canopy bulk density, and surface fuel loading (Scott and Reinhardt 2001, Jain and Graham 2007). 1322 | P a g e Issue 2 – Stand-level Fire Resistance in the Harvest Land Base by District Low Moderate Mixed High 100% 7,714 10,092 80% 5,594 6,242 60% 3,609 9,516 7,797 6,715 7,007 7,277 7,339 9,225 4,190 6,127 7,834 2,633 6,255 7,301 7,468 40% 6,751 5,913 14,783 5,844 6,415 6,376 4,952 13,615 10,048 20% 7,555 363 6,899 Percent of Acres 3,365 6,785 331 14,738 13,179 4,708 6,870 14,190 539 13,202 12,102 590 11,485 7,937 12,542 8,506 5,606 0% Current Condition Year 2063 No Action (36,820) Current Condition Year 2063 Alt. A (17,384) Current Condition Year 2063 Alt. B (32,775) Current Condition Year 2063 Alt. C (31,603) Current Condition Year 2063 Alt. D (26,969) Current Condition Year 2063 PRMP (32,511) Dry Forest Harvest Land Base (Acres) Figure H-8. Stand-level fire resistance categories in the Harvest Land Base in the dry forest in the Klamath Falls Field Office for the current condition in 50 years 1323 | P a g e Low 100% 22,644 56,484 17,759 80% 164,820 Percent of Acres 6,250 9,946 13,345 High 14,125 13,652 33,722 34,147 79,821 106,028 90,146 39,375 29,543 24,383 118,525 41,131 20% 70,489 28,812 54,805 30,315 46,620 74,184 16,760 33,460 40% 11,913 70,049 71,240 84,835 20,141 Mixed 14,858 119,694 60% Moderate 43,716 84,057 76,828 143,365 90,749 68,359 69,696 45,809 54,342 49,325 90,940 24,359 23,190 14,754 0% Current Condition Year 2063 No Action (385,643) Current Condition Year 2063 Alt. A (85,281) Current Condition Year 2063 Alt. B (203,829) Current Condition Year 2063 Alt. C (202,410) Current Condition Year 2063 Alt. D (214,298) Current Condition Year 2063 PRMP (180,303) Dry Forest Harvest Land Base (Acres) Figure H-9. Stand-level fire resistance categories in the Harvest Land Base in the dry forest on the Medford District for the current condition in 50 years 1324 | P a g e Low 100% 3,056 1,353 15,401 Moderate 1,568 Mixed High 3,545 2,861 366 9,363 10,576 8,956 8,438 80% 5,541 28,671 3,421 6,973 15,837 7,551 6,747 7,970 6,149 3,571 12,077 8,811 14,127 Percent of Acres 1,199 2,231 2,211 2,889 60% 13,157 5,761 9,979 8,937 40% 8,567 21,247 12,785 20% 14,352 1,787 5,210 20,061 23,196 21,805 20,081 16,278 25,350 10,382 8,163 13,891 11,326 0% Current Condition Year 2063 No Action (62,100) Current Condition Year 2063 Alt. A (23,149) Current Condition Year 2063 Alt. B (32,725) Current Condition Year 2063 Alt. C (43,175) Current Condition Year 2063 Alt. D (48,095) Current Condition Year 2063 PRMP (27,644) Dry Forest Harvest Land Base (Acres) Figure H-10. Stand-level fire resistance categories in the Harvest Land Base in the dry forest on the Roseburg District in 50 years 1325 | P a g e Issue 3 – Stand-level Fire Hazard Within Wildland Developed Areas by District Low 100% Moderate 13,932 Percent of Acres 80% 17,930 Mixed 9,556 20,331 High 9,865 12,016 39,532 37,237 36,737 60% 33,237 40% 23,089 20% 36,433 32,008 30,382 7,510 7,513 5,322 20,871 20,292 22,054 18,087 No Action Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 2,852 12,875 6,753 2,897 3,245 23,260 23,056 Alt. D PRMP 0% Current Condition 50 Years After Plan Implementation (Acres) Figure H-11. Stand-level fire hazard for all BLM-administered lands on the Coos Bay District within the WDA in 2063 Low 100% 9,755 80% Percent of Acres Moderate 15,425 Mixed 7,709 8,708 14,994 69,397 57,545 34,922 50,019 61,379 60% High 57,611 58,132 38,279 38,909 40% 2,056 20% 29,349 8,222 7,692 16,042 40,978 39,605 No Action Alt. A 8,210 12,561 4,771 38,435 34,571 37,457 39,584 Alt. B Alt. C Alt. D PRMP 0% Current Condition 50 Years After Plan Implementation (Acres) Figure H-12. Stand-level fire hazard for all BLM-administered lands on the Eugene District within the WDA in 2063 1326 | P a g e Low 100% Percent of Acres 80% Moderate 499 673 572 60% 424 888 Mixed 356 356 20% 696 617 524 618 911 944 619 40% High 285 42 441 639 641 110 509 585 266 262 298 462 114 615 0% Current Condition No Action Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. D PRMP 50 Years After Plan Implementation (Acres) Figure H-13. Stand-level fire hazard for all BLM-administered lands on the Klamath Falls Field Office within the WDA in 2063 Low 100% Percent of Acres 80% 135,758 Moderate Mixed High 88,692 83,062 87,601 83,487 86,340 130,728 166,524 174,488 169,257 172,607 172,151 36,326 23,665 20,908 22,933 19,780 20,600 44,854 45,979 46,402 45,069 48,986 45,769 No Action Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. D PRMP 112,951 60% 40% 140,398 20% 0% 29,722 18,982 Current Condition 50 Years After Plan Implementation (Acres) Figure H-14. Stand-level fire hazard for all BLM-administered lands on the Medford District within the WDA in 2063 1327 | P a g e Low 100% 37,168 80% Percent of Acres Moderate 28,754 Mixed High 23,613 25,281 40,826 29,477 58,258 60% 47,242 58,340 59,760 52,111 40% 52,155 4,792 5,321 20% 3,139 9,377 8,638 30,680 0% 61,110 61,463 5,715 3,753 Current Condition No Action 27,467 23,761 Alt. A Alt. B 32,019 18,305 Alt. C Alt. D 5,450 25,195 PRMP 50 Years After Plan Implementation (Acres) Figure H-15. Stand-level fire hazard for all BLM-administered lands on the Roseburg District within the WDA in 2063 Low 100% 11,293 80% Percent of Acres Moderate 19,401 Mixed 11,282 High 13,878 18,746 50,969 45,196 14,557 6,991 8,027 25,732 43,664 52,100 60% 46,501 42,547 33,509 40% 20% 2,912 34,689 6,879 9,361 14,162 32,283 31,246 30,625 27,577 30,717 30,586 No Action Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. D PRMP 22,471 0% Current Condition 50 Years After Plan Implementation Figure H-16. Stand-level fire hazard for all BLM-administered lands on the Salem District within the WDA in 2063 1328 | P a g e Issue 3 – Stand-level Fire Hazard for Late-Successional Reserve Within Wildland Developed Areas by Planning Area Region Low 100% 1,968 5,661 29,500 Percent of Acres 80% 22,798 Mixed 6,468 29,552 65,298 53,142 35,250 49,887 40% 15,064 471 20% 1,816 754 11,957 2,468 21,491 7,345 27,146 2,248 3,056 28,810 45,945 1,573 852 2,397 1,290 37,380 16,767 20,205 1,049 8,277 905 5,013 Current Condition Year 2063 0% Current Condition Year 2063 No Action (37,195) Current Condition Year 2063 Alt. A (103,345) Current Condition 42,014 36,391 55,360 Year 2063 Alt. B (128,971) 5,945 3,111 23,360 82,119 68,723 High 3,609 7,224 41,744 14,032 60% Moderate Current Condition Year 2063 Alt. C (77,808) Alt. D (51,044) 28,471 23,392 Current Condition Year 2063 PRMP (101,287) Late Successional Reserve within WDA (Acres) Figure H-17. Stand-level fire hazard in the Late-Successional Reserve in the dry forest in the coastal/north in 50 years 1329 | P a g e Low Moderate Mixed High 100% 8,008 Percent of Acres 80% 19,073 32,743 14,120 29,125 39,990 39,314 78,512 13,954 22,798 17,249 35,158 60% 155,991 22,538 40% 1,043 20% 2,375 0% 7,866 1,538 Current Condition Year 2063 No Action (39,465) 103,232 115,316 96,196 106,459 94,922 137,337 21,422 104,686 94,976 9,405 4,392 2,672 8,470 12,470 38,651 Current Condition Year 2063 Alt. A (236,789) 5,986 7,269 21,059 6,707 8,630 Current Condition Year 2063 Current Condition Alt. B (147,491) 3,836 19,280 3,460 5,891 Year 2063 Current Condition Alt. C (161,785) 3,167 13,652 5,656 7,222 17,503 Year 2063 Current Condition Year 2063 Alt. D (134,674) Late Successional Reserve within WDA (Acres) Figure H-18. Stand-level fire hazard in the Late-Successional Reserve in the dry forest in the interior/south in 50 years 1330 | P a g e 105,094 PRMP (143,012) References Agee, J. K. 1993. 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