אא
א
אאא
א
א /٢٠٠٥−١٩٨٠/
א
אאא
!
!"
א(' א(+א*
)
א
(
# $%
# $%
(''& )*''&
-١ -
آ
إ " !ا ا
أ ا
م وان وا
ن
) ( 'آ%ر اﻝدي اﻝ
ا
!ي % .رًا ,ﺵاف
2'3ه! 0ا
،
4وا
!ي ? ی%ا @3 2ی? ا
%ﺝ(= و<ی 9:ا
678
" ﺝ ( اﺡ ا
ﺡ! ? 2ا ا
.
آ أم أی'
ً.آ%ر ﻡ وش رآ= ا,ﺵاف 2'3
ا
. 4
-٢ -
ﺍﻹﻫﺪﺍء
1ـ2 . &'ـ* )ـ+ ,- .ـ ـ/0 .. &
!"# $% ... :ـ ـ3-';) !'ـ% 4<;% 6 =>? @ 6A% .... .9 ....&
' 7289 ...... !3 45 ' 3 6 2
..... 198B ./C 1
DE 'FGH
I'J %
"H% NGA % '3% NGO;P0 .... 'K'L :
98M 2E ..... 2 ? RS' T &% 4H 'U VHG3 &% 'WG R9@- .. Q' !3 45 'A'9@ =0G ' [Q'@- '- \GX .. 'F" X Y RS5 '/8Z ''9H ' * R
X5 , 'AG0 1
]P "95 ]) 7@ G'# : ^G R898B %
.... 4ـ98 'ـA'
a_ـ );ـb@% ـ.... `ـN'Z% @' : R32 @ .... G32 1B VU _5% ... 'A"H% N'cS 4d% V/
e9@% ;%
i 19b '5 '5 .... &') ^G' 98 gh #S> '5 ..... ''9H ' * Rf \-C &'5 . ً'n9/0 '-'l 'E 7@ ]) ,
''3- 7@ - V9o0 .. .9 RC'B j% k '-'l ... !U Sh ...
R9 45 "H% p20G3 qr3 s Q' '8ZG : &9
.. aGA'b ^G H'f 6A% . &'C 6) .#
'w .. aGA'b VH .. ,'3 .... :v D Rw Q'@- xGo9 6; 7@ R
.. tZ RJ u29E'0 ..
I'J R'E% 198B ;% ^
-٣ -
:,
! "#" ! , ' + ( ' %! $%
& ' ( ! )*
(/*0! 012 3!! -.! ( ! & ' . 8 7 $9 ( ' 4! 5 (1 6 / 75
6. ; + & ! (! "/ -* = +!/ <* 6 89 9/ (0! 60 7 & > ( ( ? -* = @! $%
3! &
* A 89 6. ; & '.& .6 0' )0 + (1 >1B ( ! ! & 9 + .
$%
(=* & ' 7 ' A -9& C & 9 -4
+0 0& > 0 >1 (B DE FG - %! *
. >1B ( A > 9
0 0 (9 ' ( G < E H%/ !
69 ! 7 %! + 8B !! ( / 8 7 0 0
+ ( ! ! + ' 8- G (/ 0& 0 I'/ ? <* & ' ! H%/. (0 704 +5 !/ & 75 (/*! - ( $%
+5 ! 4 ( +
. ( $%-! . 7& ( A / F0G (0 0 8
( G !! / 91 +9 ! @.
/ H- FG 91 +9 !! A9 ' H-
D0 /0 0 & . B !/ J9 51 8 -9 ' 8- / K'
09 0! 0' (1 (! H- ! 6/ FG ' "E ;% B (
8-*0 >0 I*0 8-0 8
8-'"/ (" /! 4 *! (
91 +9 ' !9 84 L. ,! / 7 %
. '=9 8-
:& C- ;% "RPPSQMNOP" +5 (1 ; -/
0*E 09 (01 / ; ! - 91 +9 A C*/
QM
. @
+9 +9 I! ( ' 91 +9 (5 5/ (! ,!
QR
.8 ! A9 ( U ! -9 7
-٤ -
; -/ ( ' 91 +9 !4 7'2
QV
./
:.+א/
(0/- !! 4 /* U ! I/ ' 91 +9 : /* $%
! . 9G
091 +9 L ' I (/* >& ! ;9 ' 9 & Q
0 0! 09 0 "E 6)* ;% (0/ 2 5.0 5 8
! / / * >
.. 4 (1 9G (= C.! 9 %
7' U !4 U RO
. 91 B A / Q
F0G 1 5! ; FG (/
J!! J? / Q
. 0 W 89 & 91 +9 ! -' A5 ( ; ! 4 Q
0-9 , < ; ' 91 +9 + %
9G
0 09 0! , FG C C1 X* J 3I'
09 35 C , -& F 1 A 70Y 0 0! 01 & ; 3 W J
. 91
/ L5! " 1 9 ; 91 L4 69 Q
05 ) 9 5! " 91 ; ; FG (/
(1
0 +09 0 – 0 !B /* – >!/ ! + +9 4
.( WTO
<0. 0' L4 %-/ A A W! 1 A. ' ,! %
/* U . ("
$%
A. ' +"E 5 / = 9 91 +9 9 !B D ( (1 H% W! 1
.; '
:.+א01
D0 ' "E 4 ! ! ' 91 +9 /-0 A / 9 ! ! FG 91 +9 0 0 ) U 9 A 3I5 C & '.G! "
1G <9 ( 7 ' ;%9 = ,& ! FG 0 ( ' + / 91 +9 4' %
.I& " & -٥ -
; 0 0' 0I4 *B 91 1 I- ! -' -
.F1 C*/ > -1 U 0! !0 0= 9 ( ' 91 +9 !
0* 6.5 +9 D) ! +9 6 ;% (!! U*!
.1 A / 8 4 & -9 ' J 0-9 U01 0 ! U 8 ! C1 ' ; ]5 ( '
.+9 A 89 ' 91 ' +G
:.+א23*א
0 +0' 0 0 (RPSQMNOP) +5 (1 91 +9 ' !9 84 &
$%0
(0" '0 0
8? 91 +9 A. :& C- ;% ,! %
F1G U U ' H% / -& 45 !/ ' W0 0' 4 ! !9G ! 71 ' 91 +9 A . ' / ; -/ ; ;
– 0 ) 0I 0 4 !! 91 +9 L > ! . ( .... (4 – 5 – . 91 +9 L --9 8
0!B 0! :0
0I . 91 +9 (5 5/ (! ,! . +9 +9 I! ' 091 +09 0 J= ' + -)* 4 84 .
: .+א4
: ' ,! 3' ("
(10 (/*0 0' ! ; ! 4 ' 91 +9 J -١
( 0 65!)91 +9 L ! H
%& -' 4
.9 !" B! 9G W . 6 ' I ! ! 5 ! 1 ; ;9 -٢
0I 0 0 ( )91 +9 L ! H
-٣
.( 5 ) >1B
-٦ -
09 0 09 91 +9 89 & / > -٤
(1 *! ") 91 +9 / ") / / - *!
*! ? ") . ; ;9 ' 9 -= F1 ' 0' "0 ! 1 L & " ( ' / + -'
.! 74 FG :.+א5*
+
0 0/ 0 IG ( J 1 5 W- 8
5 * J/ A9 ' +' IG (! H% : J W! 9 81!
. Microsoft – Excel 2000 QM
. IG ( Spss 10.0 for windows QR
:,+
אא
א
0 =0! 0- 091 +9 L. ( '/ ' . /! 91 +9 , A9 +! L. /
84 ,! '=9 - (/
: MNNP ^ . QM
0 J!0B (5 ]* ,! . . 7* <"" + '
+05 (01 0'=9 - ' ;09 ' 9 ,! -& ( WI 8
*. MNOO – MNOP
".0I' 704 0 +' A! 9 %
9 " +' (1 ;
0 A ;% 9 +9 !. RPPV 8 RPPP8 "<!
. 5 9& A9 +) 9 %
0 A. " ! 9 9 ( ,! : MNNV 7 ! . QR
C0*& " 0 0! -9 ' 4 I - ;4 0 0' 4 ") ,! %
( : 7* 9 7'.
") I (/*! ;9 ' = (1 ' 0 0
") & '.G! +I5 ' = (1 ( D $%
80
* . C (1 91 74 /& 91 +9
>0 L05 D/ ; ' ' 9 ,! -& ( WI
4 !"'( " H- 75G) J
09 C 9 81. L5 5 '
0' 09 0 ( 8 H% / 91 L4 ' 9 < +
-٧ -
<09G 09 3I' & +' ' 9 %
( & . ' " J 8 4 9 & . ! +5 $%
' %1 8 !
. 8"4I /* (! 91 +9 / ' "
0 " 0! 0 ' 9 9 ( ,! : MNN` 4 J QV
.0 : 7* 9 ;1 8 . C*& " 7'2 A ' W (=
0 0 0' 9 8
>& - 91 +9 B ,!
0 0 5 & '.G! ' ") "/ . (MNNV – MN`P )+5 (1 ' W (=
80B (01 4 + ' "
" W (= !*
0 0 $%
/ 8B ' $%
A9 (MNNMQMNON)
0' +04 C0. 9 "! ' . L %
A9 J!B
09& 0& -!0 3051 ' 91 7B ' 9 . !/B ! (/* 5 - ( 0 0' 04 " ! $/ 9 ( ,! : RPPP : 9 Qa
01 .. C0*& " RPPP QMN`P " +05 (1 9G W "
0 I / ! 4 $%
. : 7* 9 ;
H% ? (1 9 (* . ; 4 74 ' 5
0 ; '"
" J 4 ,! -& ( 9*
W ! ;4 3 ! ! 9G W " (1
6 &. 91 +9 / 4 ") "! ' .9G
0/ (0! ". 4 9 ! '/ 7 H
/ 8
. 91 +9 / "/ '"! ")
" >9 " ! ' 9 9 ( ,! : RPPR 8? ] QS
%0
0 : 7*0 9 ; 1 .. C*& " ' +*! !9B
3! $") +*! !9B "/ 8
; = <. ,!
"0 A0 ;0 !9 (1 H% ; J9
. 9 !9B
I0. (0 ' !9B " ,! -& ( 8 WI 8
*
0" & 7 8 "! ' C1 ' >1B ! ( A 4
-٨ -
0 0 8? 6 .' ; ;9 " $%
0"/ J%9 A 8 6 MNNM 8 MP 8 " - +!/
. !9B ! " 0/ " 0! ' 9 9 ( ,! : RPPV (! ' Qb
. C*& " 5 ? ! ' 9 91 0 91 8/ " ,! %
, : * 9 ! <" . !
091 +09 (0 0' $%
" "! ' / A ; (0 %0
& 91 ! 9 +5 ' 6 .
0 0 0 0 "I! (/* @! 4 /& . '
0 " ! ' 9 9 ( ,! : MNN` 9 Q`
;01 80 .. C0*& " ! & + 0-
: 7* 9 (5 .
+05 (1 . /* 4' "! ' * -!
J09 0& 04 9 ( ") ( RPPS – MNOP)
70 1 A4 ! 7 ' 1 -! 60 / . ! *! D/ ( / I%= 4 !! 9 " ! +5 ' 6
0' = 8 -/
& 4 9& " +' ' !
0 +0!/ !0 (/*0 -9 2 A . 0 (/* " ! ' 9 9 ( ,! :RPPR 59 8"
QO
0 ..: C*& " ! -9 ! -9 ! 91 +9
A0 0. ,0! . : D* 9 E' . . ! !*. ! ;9 (! ! ; 04 (1 ! ( ! (/ 8& A +"/ H
,! '
05 09 . 91 +9 / ") >!/ ! + +9
4 9 %& -! (1 +9 WI 74 8 >!/ + +9
0! 9 6!* 9 H% 6 ' @. c (!4 ! B 74 8 /* ! 7 & ! ( ! ; (/ & ! (
. 2 -٩ -
0 1 +*& A -/ = 5 : MNNN ' QN
0 ,0! %
, . . .. C*K! 7* 9 / 9
. ; = 5 & 8. !9 ! "2
+09 0 0& 0 8. ' 1) ,! -& ( I 9*
0 (/ < + ' 1 6& ;E " - ' D $ (I 7! A -9 9 B (/-
.>1 -9 -!
09 ' : RPPP QMP
0 ,! %
@. J! D.. C*K! 7* 9 /
0I%= +95 ].& 9G W! 6 ; !!
30 A +' ' % <5/ 74 & " +' ' 4 -! 3I05 %0
09 0 & . ' L ' J!Y
(0/ J - 8 7 9 /* & ( . $ 91 7B ' 8 A FG
! -9 ' I%= ) / : MNNa ! &QMM
/*0! 80 .. C*K! / ' 9 9 ( 0 ! I& . ! ..
'/ ) ' 8
L 644 ;% 8? . ' /
0 60 & ' / 8? / I%= 0 =0 ( -/ / $ c4 1 C A A
C $! ! ;% @4 J! / c ; ! $9 04 09 0/! c J = B & ... 3I' H
B 0 0 (a,`aS) RPPM 8 @4 FG / 4' . - 4 1!
C (Ra) RPPM 8 @4 / (a,SRV) & RPPS 8 ' c
8 ' A9 ( a,` ) RPPM 8 ] / RPPS 8 C (MaV) & 5
. (+/% 8Y IG 9) (V,N) & RPPS
4 ' ;9 (! B *E :(RPPM – RPPP ) <e ;/ J/ Q12
"5". $%
. *. ; !
. 05 (/*! c1 8 4 ! & '.G! /%
+05 (01 091 +9 L ' +"E ( 5 ! "! ' .L4 %
' c1 8 4 ! A (RPPSQMNOP)
-١٠ -
091 +09 A0 0& (B (5 ' 7 8 4' (' ! & ,! 84 8 +09 L0 0! 0! "2 " (5 ' 8 (RPPS QMNOP )+5 (1 04' ,0" (05 ( (4 – 5 – – ) I 4 91
A0 0 091 +09 / ! ' / .
>0!/ 0! + +9 4 ) 9 5 A! (5 ' ,! C 1
10 (0 0 +09 & 8. J 84 ( – !B /*
+0*! 0!9B " J%9 91 34 7 91 +9 L4 91
WI 3! c1 8" . 91 +9 / ") ; ;9 C
. -١١ -
אא:א$א!
#א"
א
!'&
.%
אא%:)*+א
-א,א
א,א
! .
אא%0:+א.&/א34א"2א1
#א"
א
! .
אא7א:0:56אא,9א
.8
-١٢ -
& AI.! -9 ) ' ( 91 +9 01 0 C01 0' ")0 $09 8B! 8/ 91 +9' 8
+9 *E ! / /- ! 91 +9 *E D/ %& 91
60 4 C1 ' ! H% > 91
. 8 ! A ;9 (! (9 '
0
B ! - J9 B ( ) 91 +9 / !
09 0 *E ! = %
(/ / B 91 +9 !
-/ (4 8 ( ! 91 +9 '=9 A / ; (M)
. >1B ( 4 ! > @. 6B
804 0! 4 3! @. ! 91 +9 ! <! (!
.91 +9 <& ' +* ! (1 ;%0 FOB : (B ( ! ! A ' 1 H
0' (>01 (4 ; ) 5 - - - ! 45 A9 (*
- ( ! . ? >1 45 %
(* ; $%- ! <
! < & .! $%
( . .! ) * 45/ +1!
- ) .! * (4 45 FOB & '.G! (* ;% CIF "
(R)
. ! < & -
! & + A CIF + A 7! ' FOB 81 (! 4! / 91 +9! 4 ! f! A 7! %
0 80 J0 +0. 0 / ;% (MNNV ) 8 4 ! 9 8 K0' 0! FOB 0! ; ! /9 ! ! ' 1 / ( ! -= ! + A ) (4 C/
.A ! ' 4 (! 1 $%
84 W 91 +9! - 5 267 1 1 23 4 : .//( ,-, + )
1
. .99 > , = ) , (./(; – ./9&)
. ٤٠ ص، +, دﻡ، ﺱ( ( ا ()(ﻡت، رة ا"ر! ا ر ل ر ان ا$% ا:٢٠٠١ ، ا، - 2
-١٣ -
0 0B 091 +09 0! B H9 091 +09 0*E 0! (9 (FOB )! (CIF )! :
( &''9 – ./A') 5 267 7 1@ (. ) 2
!
1 27
1 1@
1C
MMSR
NMV
RPPMR
MbMOO
OR`V
MNOP
MS`R
NM`
SRSR
MN`OM
ORaS
MNOM
SOP
SOP
SRSR
MS`S`
`NSa
MNOR
``P
bOR
MMORR
M`ORN
`Sa`
MNOV
SMa
SaR
V`OR
MbMSS
`R`S
MNOa
VPa
VPP
VaRb
MSS`P
baR`
MNOS
MNS
VOR
Rb`M
MP`PN
SMNN
MNOb
Raa
VRR
VbbV
R`NMS
MSMNR
MNO`
Ra`
R`V
MOSV
RSPaP
MSPNV
MNOO
bMP
abM
RVM`
RVSaa
VV`aP
MNON
MVV`
MbRR
RRNN
RbNVb
a`ROR
MNNP
bN`
Ob`
OOOM
VMPbb
VOSPa
MNNM
Oab
NSO
M`MOS
RNM`O
Va`RP
MNNR
Oab
NSO
MRNbR
ababN
VSVMO
MNNV
RaOP
MPMM
MVSbO
bMabN
VNOMO
MNNa
RbOS
MMaV
Ma``O
SROSb
aaSbR
MNNS
RbOS
MMaV
MSNPS
bPVOS
aaOO`
MNNb
RRbR
NON
MVSRN
aSRMM
aVNSV
MNN`
VMRN
OOR
MbVVO
aV`Ra
VRaaV
MNNO
aRRP
RPPV
MbRSV
aVPMP
VOOOP
MNNN
Sa`a
RaPR
MOOOO
MO`SVS
RMbMNP
RPPP
aOS`
VP`b
V`POS
RRP`aa
RaVM`N
RPPM
NRVR
VaMb
MSSOV`
RVS`Sa
VMSNMN
RPPR
RaOO
SRSS
NM``a
RVb`bO
RbSPVN
RPPV
MMMVM
ObPa
M`SRaR
VR`PMN
RaNPMN
RPPa
MRSNb
NVRa
RP`Vab
SPRVbN
aRaVPP
RPPS
-١٤ -
B
. E + F , (&''*) ./A. ) D : +0 % ; ( & 91 +9 (9 ' 1 1 8 &
I! 9G +4 , (1 H% ' 9& + % & ! 5. 9&
0!9B 0! (0 A ;9 (! 9G 9 C-! 9/ (4 "
0 0 A. 8 6! '/ ' ' +9 7 @' (
: H% 74 C
B
. 5 ! (/
A
•
. ( (4 ) 1 •
. 4 9G 4 --9 +*! 4' J9
•
0 c04 0 0 A0 / 8 ,! ! =
•
: ! $%5 8 A! (1 6 & -I! F& 7 /-
:-
1 51 ;9 c1 (/*! ' ' 74 3I5 Q
. 91 1 ' - 8 1 9G +4 C.
•
. >1B 81 5 •
. ) ( (4 1 •
. ( (4 ) 1 G 351 C.
•
. ( = 5 ) L & 6-9 *! !9B " 89 C.
•
. 91 +9 / /9 ? /9 4 9
•
. 91 7B & '.G! A ' /
•
0 A D/ 8 /- A •
. +
+ +& E (1G ; ' 1 A 8 / Q
0 AI.! A - ! - /9 8 A' ! 0E (1G (! 1 /9 8 A' (! +*! + 4 . (=* L ' - 5 ! -١٥ -
-١٦ -
06א
א
א
א
0/ 91 - -9 (9 ' ( A!
0 0--9 0 -0 -' ( ! -' J >1 & C1
+9 (" $%
-' I ! A09 09 0 (0" %0
+9 (9 ' 7! 0G /9 8 c 8/ / !.! 4 <9G
(M)
C0
B (" 9 . 9 <9 -9 ! ?
( R)
C
B 9 74 9 (
: ' 4 ! 1 A 7 ' 8 1 + QM
. 0/ / 91 "E -1 ; !9B ' QR
. $%
B +. - H% . +. "g -
A! ; +9 (9 ' ; (" ;% 7?G 1 QV
0 A. 7B + H% FG C/ ( !
. 6-9! 5/ <9G 9
0I C0 '0 J09 , ' - " ; I* Qa
. -. 8 9 (1 H% 8 . - +
0/ 0 0 70 F1 , 91 !4 QS
.9 ! !4 $%
c1 !/ -9 (%! J %
. 81. ^/
. ' ! '/ C A9* Qb
:א
א
א
א6א−١−١−١
C01 A 91 +9 ' (1 & $9! 1 % ' 9 %0 0 0-! C ! 51 5 ' (1 %
(/* >
80 0& 0 9 '
. "" 5B ! * 4 - (4
H6H C , 1C
# #G 1CCH # 7 1 : .//A , ,+
)
1
.;>, I , , . &(/ > , 1 , , 1% : .//; , ,=C )
-١٧ -
2
0-9 9 9* c1 & .1 , E*
0!9B 0 9 2 B !
(M)
. F1 & 4 -
9 9* -" W : -
/% ' 9 ( + ! /
0 0 30! (1K! MNOb 8 & MN`P 8 : JB 0' /*0! c1 L4 8 !/ (9 & 91 +9 G / ! (4 A 91 +9 ' (1 (4 $9 %
J ( +&
(R)
. 51 ! A A' +9 5 <=G $9 I" 5 05 0B ( , " (B C ' 4 /
0 0 0/ 04 0 ( %S ) 0& 0B (%RSP) & /9
(V)
.
0 * 9 4! !9B A4 7 MNOM 8 '
% ! / -' ! +9 ( ' ! )*
0 c01 L4 7 (1 8 H- *
;0/ H! * 4' C ! ! ' 8 L4 (a)
. + S,aP ( ! ; C ,
;0 0! % (`PQ aP) 0! 8- ! C! @ /
;%0 0 ! C / ! L J H% ! !
0 0 8 + =. C51 C-! ;/ H! $
0 ( 4 E c1 L4 +. 4' C!
- 8 / - H%! . % ( `P Q SP ) ! ] & ' 8" (% RS Q %MP) !
351 9 !9B A4 /* 85 & > %
( ' 1 (I I
0 09 805 0& $! > %
B c4 W (S)
. ;9
. .; > , I , #MH 1C , L + : ./(K ,J ,
)
1
9;> I ,JB 4 ,FO I , + M " J + : C ,N -2
.
3
. .'. – .'' > , I P )
. 9; > ,I P - 4
.. /. , I , H6H C , # D5 1
" % : .//9 , % , C - 5
. / > ,.//9 /9 /;. O .//9/
-١٨ -
$%
(1 9 RPPR 8 & MNO` : CH 0 0/ & ' I9 G 3! A 4! -)!
. (& 9& % ! 0! 09G 8 4 >9 % <5/ 9 & ( C-!
0 0!9B %05 <04! (9 +*! !9B "! "/ 8
8 !9B 4 ( 8 !9B 4 ' ' 4 > 4(M). 4. ' 0/ ;0/ 1 ! / 4 69 @9 & 4! ( '
. 91 +9 ' 69 9 !
(R)
: - 9 3! 74 ' 4! " /
.I%= /- & !! % ' 9 & ( . A 7 84 74 FG (/
A . 5 / + J 9/ 3! + +4 71 A 8 J > / 9 $%
&
A! A 4! I. 89 4! & 8. ( 84 I
70 ' A! - -
W + 9 ' , 1 7 '
0 <"! 91 7B 8 & 69 W > A' 9 8 ! 1
809 ;% B ( 1 7 (9 %
c1 8 L4 /* (*0' 05 ;9 ' 9 $%
9 / . 6/
FG
. + L5 9 F1 & (& !9B 4 +9 @5 91 +9 +9 (1 8I4 A. 9
9 69! 4' 4! ' 91 +9 + 4 > / %&
(V)
: ' ("
. <9G ! 4 C51 . A9* . C
B $%
81 ! /9 5 H6H C , HT 1 , + : .//9 ,S ,R6 –
2
. *K9 > , .//9 , I ,
2 C , 1 : C 1 L 14 : .//K , ,M )
2
.(& > , I #S , B J! 1 U
. &'( >, I , C =64 , # +C 5 4: &''K,, +
)
-١٩ -
3
. C
B $%
A J ! 4 0' %1 <9G 8
(1 $%
' 9 @ /
. !9B A4 (9
: ).).).).
:(M) f! ' 84
. + & 4! +9G ' A.1 ;0 ;09 C0 & 89 !9B A4 +K! - & A.1 .)*! 4 7I" !& H9 +& > I9 ! 8 & '.G!
0! 0' A04 0 D ;9 C (! 89 A4 <* 8 . + SP ; +9
09 60/5 .01 (" A 6/! 89 A4! 5! @ . !B 0& 0!(% RS) A! !9B A4 ( % `S) !! 5! @' A ! !! . +9 7B ! ;9 C
;9 C .4 ( = A (! @ . ( %
A! 8
. +& A 4! E (1G! ] + 7 & . ( A ;9 (! 5 4 & (%RS) F !9B 4 ! 5 ! . ;% <9G /
!! 5! 6/5 .1 ; @ 1g <9& 7 ') ( % `S) 8" ( % SP)
(0 FG A9* C-! FG 8 / (% MPP)
.
5/ -/ 4! L.B A 4! ! (" <9G $%
8? 0 0 04! , G ( 84 ' J ,
. 7 3 4 /- *
: ) &).).).
. EURDINFO CENTR , Syria 791 B 1
, 7 VC% )
-٢٠ -
1
c4 & & '- 4! ' ! 9 4
0 ! 8 !9B 4 c4 9 " (B C ' 1
(M)
FG
0' 0 $%
' . 4' H% . ' ;9 ' 9
0B 09 )0 0 (=* B ) +. - 4
@0 , c1 L4 ( 8 !9B 4 ) - 1 (1 @0 0/ 1 6! -9 6 (=* . FG ! c1 L4
C0.& ' ! 4 $%
/ 6 (1 6 ! 8 L4
(R)
. !9B 4 !
! ] & '.& A .5 4 351 & 9 -9 /
04 50 0E J? <5& 8 , " / A "/
0 8 = MOP + I -! ! @ ;9 C - !
+09 A* <" 8 MNNM 8 MP 8 " A
(V)
. MNNP 8 ' I"
0- ]0 !9B 4 8/ )* ! *! 4 A 8/ . /9 8 +5 -9 A9 !
80 & '.& + A % (RP QM ) ! 4' /9 '! 7 '
0 0 0/9 ' =! , % (VS Q b ) ! ] (" "B % JI.
0' 0=! (%MS) C (% `) B B (%M) B I%=
0%B 0 0 60 0=! ,0
0/9 5 351 8 RPPM 8 '
(a)
(% RPP) 0/ /-0 A 3! (S)
. ! +-9 9" (% MPP % bS)
05 (0/
0 D/ /- A 5 L5 & . (%M) 4! B 0 A .51 ;% ' - C-! /- @ /9
. ! -9 "
0! C0-! 04 & <9& 8 RPPa 8 '
0 % *0 A 91 +9 :
(b)
! / * /
www.alqtissad.com.sy.، 1%!اد و ا%ﺱ3 )(!ت ا"ﺹ%)ت وا,% ا6رة أه$%د وا1%23!ن وزارة ا- 1
. 9* – 99 > W$ I P ...
+ M " J + : .//( , C ,N ) 2
. &'A > , W$ I P +C 5 4 : &''K , , +
)
3
. ;KA >, I , 447 # 1 : &''' , 7 , C )
4
. (. > , I 1C , 1 : .//( , , )
, 7 1
1
3% )
WWW.aliqtissad.com. sy
-٢١ -
5
6
0 0 + 4' ( * <5G 9& <=& . RPPR/MR/MS i (MSMa ) 4! !9B )* % AI.!
0 +9& @ +5 9& @ 8 & . RPPR / MR/ MS i MSMR 4! H9 (! - 8
890 0!9B A4 8 8! ( <=& ! ! H' -9 ; ;9 C @! RPPV / ` / MS i MMS 4! +
= %-! +9 ! A 7' (/*! $B / A4
. . (% NP )& (% `S ) 6! 5 c1 L4 ; ] !9B A4 ! + +& A C-! E (1e 9 %5 !9B A4 <* 44 B . C B A' (- $9! ; ;9 C 8 . % aP & % RS <4
: " % );).).).
05 0 C0/ = J ( $ J4 & C -9
A FG 9* H% 7B !9B 4 ( 0 0! C51 ' C- %
& ( ! <9& %1
(M)
. 5 -5/! +
0 +0 (V,NV) 0 0 (!4 + C 351 & !9B 4
(R)
. ( % bS) !! + C 351 8 / H%! MNOO 8 ' (MM,RS)&
C0 C J9 & H
/ 4' C +5 $%
-*
0 %
7! MNOO 8 ! (!4 + RR ( ! ;% 9*
;09 H0! 0-!! 0 -! 5 @ ! 4
0/9 0 C0 9 C & ! ' - 8 ;
L0 J0 +0 aR,RR MM,RS : (0 0! 6 ;% /9 8 <5! c1
! ( (B C B I%= ) . &9& , C =64 , # +C 5 4 : &''K , ,+
)
1
P ! 1 1 J " X57 1
C :&''' , 6 ,-7 )
2
./A > , L ,27
-٢٢ -
0 D0 0 75 !9B 5 45 (% SP) 8 J (M)
. ( J ) + (aR)( ! ;% 9 C H
80 + (ab) k! + 6.51 >9 ;% MNNP 8 ! ( +9
(MNNO Q MNNP) ! (% O,`) + C ' 351 ! =! ; . MNNO
(a,aN) 0 9 351 ' %1 ;% ( < 7 ) +9 7B ' C . RPPP 8 + (a`) & 351 8" ( % NM,M !! ) MNNO 8 (SP,bb) & MNOP 8
0 + (SP,MP) ( & 9 C 351 8 RPPM " / '
0 ) +09 ( C > H%! $ C-! J 3 .1 @! 70 C0 0 /%0! 9 (R)
. C -'
+1 ' ( < 7
(0!4 0 + (SRQ SP)! ] +' 4 6!* ( (< 7 ) C0 0' 0! 4 & + C (V)
. C0 ! ! ! 89 c4 " "
' -9 +5 c4 ( < 7 ) ? 7 7 A & )0 c1 L4 <9 (1 +9 ( & + F1 & > !9B 4
60 (% VS)9 8 6 89 H% ! 6 ( !9B 4 69
(0 0 0 +%' B B MNNP 8 <"! (B C (1
C051! 70 '
(a)
. A I - 1 $! c1 L4 0! !9B 4! ( A ;% MNOb 8 (Ra) 8 4 ( 8 4' !9B 4 !
(S)
. !9B 4! ! @' !9B +! 'Y @ ;% RPPb 8 (b) 8 8
: 7 J UDC )K).).).
: WI & 91 9 (1 80 / RMOa / 80 04 J9! ( 7 ! ! & ;09 C 7 1g @ A4 (! @ ;% MNNP
C0 0 <J C51 4 FG ' ;
0 +
A9* & ". - & . A4 ) ' /
. / > , I , H6H C , # D5 1
" % , .//9 ,% ,C )
1
, 1C , UC J 3H% # CB P4M : &''& , ,
)
2
.;'* > , I . www.ALIqtissad .com .sy C P $7Y , " : &''9 , , S )
3
. .A > , 3M , , + L % , &''. , ,F3 )
4
. www.ALALam.ekt .com. sy # CB P4M C : &''9 , , )
5
-٢٣ -
(1 5 c4 + ! ( MNNM QMNON) (1
7' ( C-! 81.! H% (! J -
A04! -9 + (9 84 A 351 A (
0! ' ! 8B J '/ 8 8 & > : (9 6. %
(M)
. M 1 1 ( & ) 2
" " 1 P 1 1
1
a,PS
V,NP
VNNM
RMRM
MNOP
MM,RS
MM,RP
RaOM
MVSb
MNO`
MM,RS
MM,RP
RVNV
aRRR
MNNP
MM,RS
MM,RP
VORV
Va`M,S
MNNN
ab,SP
ab,P
aPVV
abNN
RPPP
ab,SP
ab,P
a`NN
SROb
RPPM
ab,SP
ab,P
SPbN
bObO
RPPR
ab,SP
ab,P
SPNM
S`bR
RPPV
aO,bS
aO,bS
b`RR
SMMO
RPPa
SP,P
SP,P
MPPa`
OaOb
RPPS
45C
B
E + F ,( &''* – .//') Z D 1C J 1 : 60/ 89 ' 8/ 1 ! C ! 4
0-9 4! + A - C L!& (1 H% 8 6!
(0 ' "E ( "/ C !4 8 81. ' 8
C L5' @ ? ' 6/ (!
+0 + & A5 l E 8 -9 %
- J C.! C 0 ( ( I/ ) ; ! 4 + B . >1 -9 : 0! +
. 3 C.! C ! Q
. ( I Q
.(RPPSQ RPPa) ' ;9 9 85 ' 8
;% B
! (B (9 3! C/ 6& A9* & 91 +9 0 H0% D/ ;9 (! ! WI & ! 8 L4! + / . ' ;9 . 9A > , W$ I P ... , + M " J + : .//( , C ,N )
-٢٤ -
1
*! (/*! "E " . MNOM 8 % ' C & 04' D)/ & ! ! , 5/ '
0 0! 0 + (`P QSS) & + SP 7 ' A5
0 ;* ;% ' + (ab,S ) ' H% ( C $%0
(01 0 . -9 B 6! + (SS) 4!
0 + (ab,S) ! A! !' 69& *! (! '.& 5/ ( & 0B 5/ H%! A5 + ( SS ) & ( $9 6 ( L05 F01 89 A9 H%/ ' B L5 & ;E ;%
0 44 I! (/* ( 91 7B ' ' 4 "/ 4'& (M)
. 0& (0 (/0* & C )! c1 L4 ; A (I <* & ( ' 1 C B !! .51 B H / 89 +0 / -' (1 69& ;* 3' c1 L4
(R)
. +! U4 69 A! A 4! 5 5/!
0-! 5 A A!! MNNP 8 ( * U! 4 ]! 7 ' 0 $"g ! 3! @! UI9 U / 1g &
(1 !! U c1 L4 A9* ' $" / c1 L4
%
. + / ! -' (4 !! +!/ !! + / '
+ (a`) .51 4' * c4 ' U / <J
,0 (/% 8 IG 9 J) MNNa 8 + (VN) & MNNP 8
+ (O,Oa) & MNNP 8 + (RP) 9 c1 L4 0 +09 ( A 4! ' 9 + C. 6 / MNNa 8 0 8- + 3! !! U' (/* " U 35
. 91 J !! ^/ ( / ! 8- ( "
0' MNO` 8 U<! A 7 4! A4! 5 7! & MNNP 80 + (a`) & MNOM 8 + MS +
0' 09 = '/ / 8 -& & MNNM 8 + VO
> A <* 81 C !" "9 H% / ;9 ..9 > , I , 1
- , # I 1 MC , &''' , ,
C )
1
1C , , ./A. $C # " % : .//* ,[6 , )
2
. .&& > I
-٢٥ -
c01 L4 ( 81 C 5 C "/! (
. A9 ' 8
;% B
& 6! A4 +K! -! 8& & %& A4 +& - 8 8
& 0 J0? 8 6 89 (%RQM) !! 7 ( ! ; ;9 C
0 J9 / ' 7' 9 8
I1 / / 8- 8 351!
0- (%SP ) ( 9 ( ' - ( & A.1 A4 +& 1) ( ' 6 & '.G! A4 +G . !
<09G J!! bP + 1) /
(١)
. I9 / ?
! ( L4 H%/ - ( ! 0!4 (/*0 5 C/! !4 $%
J= ' 8- 5 < (1 9
. 8 +9
J!0! H0% 8- 8 +& 9 > ' !9B A4 J 351 & @ 7 '/! 8-! -%= 8 8-! 8- 8 ! ]
0? 0 )! ; ;9 C A4 %
A! 8
!9 %
+%' B -!
(R)
. + ! +9 7B ' 44 (4 9
04' 70I 0! C/ ()! 91 7B & 9 A9* (! '
(10 JI. <5& 8 JI. A9 5
(%M) 0 7! /9 8 B <5& 0- +G ! "2 c1 . - A9 ' +5 +G A E (1G 0 80& 8 H% %& & C A ; A!! 8& 8 -1 8 A4
!0 %1 A4 J/ 4 84! <5/ AI.! $ <4 C - 0 %0
. 0 k0!! I ! A4 +K! 8 7! ! C1 (/ 7!
+9 ! ( A 5 A 89 6B A4 - 8 <4!G A 3
0 0 %5 8 4I (/* ! & ! ( .5 . ( H & <09G 04 9 %1 & 91 9 ! WI '
' 3I5 74 7I ! C/ ()! 91 7B & 9 A9* C-!
: -
/% . ; ;9 P $7Y, .K >, I, 1
P4M ! VC JM 23 :&''K , ," )
1
. WWW.asharaqabarabi.org.4k/b-ueahat-t-st.htm C
www.iqtisssadya.com. و%A3 ا2ذ اC ﻡ، 1%; ا2 <)إ?ء ﺕ: ٢٠٠٦، ! ﺱ، ﺹرم- 2
-٢٦ -
- 8 <4!G B H% 8 JI. A9 <5& Q1n
.05 0 0 0 +09 ! ( A 5 A 89 A4
. ( & %5 8 4I (/* ! & ! ( @ 4! / ;% RPPV 8 (MMPP) 8 4 J9! ! ! H' QRn
0 1* -! 84 & A ( ! & ! (
A0 & <9 ( /K! @! . 6 1g 6 ( A
/!0* 0! +%0= ; ;9 C > 5 6! (! (M)
. RPPa 8 ( NaN ) 6 ( NbP) 8 4 J /!! $B
- / J!B !9B A4 ( ;% MNOb 8 Ra 8 4 / Q3n
"0 A*0 & 6 !9B A4 H 3' ' ! WI
. ; ' ( + ; ;9 * + ' J $<=& /
0 :0
01 45 A9 7! ""! 51 C Q4n
0 C0 0 + (SP,SSQ aN,OS )8 L4 C
(R)
. + (MM,RS Q MM,RP) C !9B +0 (MVa) 5 , 4 & ' ! 4 (V) RPPV 80 + (`RM) & MNNO 8 (VNM) & MNNP 8 0" 0 04 < & 'B ( ' " (/* 9 & ! (%N,V)0 81. ( k! , +I5 81. L5 1 !
0! E 6 ! <G J MNNV 8 ( % V,S )& 351 8" MNNP 8
(0 +I5 / ! RPPV 8( % RP ) MNNS 8 ( % RR ) H% "/)! " .
0 3051 901 80 A0 ;09 (0 351 & > %
( % N ) 0- 351 '1 8-1 ( F1 ' L & ' -9 F1 ' 7 <* H% 9 /( a). & - ( ' 44
0 (B H +5 ' -9 & > ! (B C
0 / J & +' (1 ' 4 4' H% - 9
0 + C 4 5 4 3I5 c 7 H-
WWW.ALIqtissad.com.sy C P $7Y , # CB P4M : &''9 , ,
)
1
. &K > , I
.&9> , \5C I C P $7Y , # " % : &''9 , ,S )
2
. E + F &''K D )
3
LZ 1 # M L , + 4 # 1 : &''; , H3 ,5
)
4
. &;; > ,3M ,
-٢٧ -
0" (09 0(M). ' I 89 A % (MPQ O) ! ] I5 (
0 ;9 9 !! 5. 91 +9 L < 4 0 B 9 + ' (" /
( & 4! 4 ( & '
L0 809 0 4 / (/ ") ' ' / 8 4 ' (/
' /% ; +I5 J 8 AI 89 ( % SS) 3 ! 8 , 3
0 1 FG ! " C. & > %
1 " ")
91 +9 L < ! (/*! " 0 A!0 & " !. <5& @ & -9 4' !! 0- 305 0 04 0! & !. -9 FG! <! i <!
0! 09 0 ]0!B 09B J (1 !. , JI.
%aR ? /* !. % aP /* !. % RR) (%aS–MP)
0 09 ' ]!B !. . ( + E % /* !.
0 @.0(R) . 0 (B ' (% aS)! ! (% VS) !! A4 ( & 30' A0 30 %
FG A9* /* !. 351
0! 0 704 8 4I (" /9 !. & 5/ A' 2 A !.
!0! . A .5 !. ( 8? *B
A9*0 C0-! RPPM 80 = - & ( % N,S ) 6 .5 !. =! 4' Fe
04 & <9 !. L5 & '.G! %
. -' + (/*0 ;%0 ;0 8 44 ]!B & 8-.1& 8 L4 (1 5/ '9
8?!' 44 (1 !. (1 !. 35 . DB
84 ' 8- D <E
? 44 ]!B !. 5/ @I* 8
8
. 8-! 8-5/ .
0 0 <09G 0
! ! /9 8 c01 C0/ L05 0& '.G! %
E (1G ' +4
0/9 c1 C/ & C. 4" I! (/* ! ? 1! /9
0' 01 . FG ' E (1G ' 1 FG C/
AI.! (1! @ D4 5! 8 8 / 0/ F1 ' < 65 ' 9 D' I A
]0. /) A J/ 6 ! 9 ! /9 8 /
0 0' +04 0 <9G c4 ( /9 ! ' '5*
.&;K> I P )
1
. .( >, W$ I P .... # D5 1
" % : &''9 ,% ,C )
2
-٢٨ -
;%0 RPPS/N/Ma i! / aPa / 8 8 & 8 4' H% E (1G 8 . 4' ( 5 9 ) L ' /9 ' /
+& .
J & + FG B /9 8 .51
0- A0 0 0 ! " c G 9 ( (% Ma,S Q % M) ! ]
0' . 0 & " J%9 ' !9 "B 8 %- / A (M). RPP` 8
0/ 8 351 W ; 5/ ' (" /9 8 C
0& '.& " 6& @ %
!/ ' +4! ( 5/! 9 H% K' W %
W %
J + ! ( ! W ( 6B H- + 6
0/ 09 0 (0! / / B & /9 8 ' F 9 8 K' U "
<05& 80 . . 8-* " (- 4 8 aPa 8
. + c1 ' + C= g 2 2
. 7B ' I- W B /9 ' 351 D/ > @. %
5 4' FG + ' JI. 8
,! !. ! +G -9 H
@I*0 3051 ! & 84 ! JI. L 0 0 ! & 9G G 81
(R)
. !. <J !.
F0G 80 0 0=! 0 FG J ' 5 B
8
;% 5 FG + A9* H% ;E ,! (1 8 0 !0 D0 0 (V). ( (=* W +!
. ' 91 +9 *
C P $7Y L : &''K, # , ,
C) 1
WWW.ALIqtissadnews.com.sy
. &&* >, I , 1
- , # [6 : &''; , ,
C )2
. &&K > I P )
-٢٩ -
3
! א
אאאא0
90G L04 0 (/* ,' ! ; ! 4' 91 +9 (/
&
H-0 A B 9 C ! %
K' 4 ' I
! 7' ;% 4 /- = K' >1 FG
(M)
. ' < 91 +9 ' /
= & ;E
:א
אא6−١−٢−١
'0 ;09 ' 9 351 ! I5! ("
0 (= & ;E / 9 <! -9 !9B ( c' ' !9B " J%9 89 *! ! !
'0 ' 3I' 74 H% ' ! *E !9 WI 74
. ( RPPS – MNOP ) +5 5 A ! (9 . C 4
( &''9 )./A' ) 5 B 1 4O C ,
1 / 3 / 2
1 4O C
1 1 % 1
51,2
MbMOO
8273
1980
aM,`
MN`OM
ORaS
MNOM
SP,S
MS`S`
`NSa
MNOR
aR,V
M`ORN
`Sa`
MNOV
aS,P
MbMSS
`R`S
MNOa
41,3
MSS`P
6427
1985
48,5
MP`PN
5199
1986
54,4
R`NMS
15192
1987
60,3
RSPaP
15093
1988
143
RVSaa
33740
1989
175
RbNVb
47282
1990
124
VMPbb
38504
1991
OO,b
VNM`O
Va`RM
MNNR
76.0
ababN
35318
1993
64,9
bMabN
39818
1994
84,3
SROSb
44562
1995
74,3
bPVOS
44887
1996
N`,R
aSRMM
aVNSV
MNN`
74,2
aV`Ra
32443
1998
90,4
aVPMP
38880
1999
115,3
MO`SVS
216190
2000
Hoed man , Bernard , 1999 : The world trade organization , The Europen Union , The Arab )
word Trade policy priorities , Pitlaus , working , paaper . P . 17 .
-٣٠ -
1
110,2
RRP`aa
243179
2001
134
RVS`Sa
315919
2002
111
RVb`bO
265039
2003
`b,M
VR`PMN
RaNPMa
RPPa
Oa,a
SPRVbN
aRaVPP
RPPS
.E + F , (2006-1981) Z D J 1 : : (V) 8 (9 + (OR`V ) ( MNOb QMNOP ) +5 (1 I +! A9 QM
H% > (% b,a )k! ; (! MNOb 8 + (SMNN )& MNOP 8
: ' " ( 9 &
9& 5 L5! 7' ;% 7 ' 81 5 351 .4
0 J!0! + = A B FG ' c4 0 A09 ! 9G (= ' & > ;% B !9B A4
. .(MNOa–MNOV) (1 C59 W ( < J!! / 44 6 )! + C 84 ' (" 8
( 7! & C.
' ' - 8 J!! 5 ? c ;% B C (M)
. C 89 ( 91 7B
& I" & & MNNP 8 + & QR
+5 ' 8B A 81. >9 , 4! (!4 . c1 L4 (! !9B A4 I! +9 = <09G 0" 01 ' + C 351 8? 6 %
. + & E 8 -!& 8 >1B
91 7B ' C. & '.& F1 & 351 A9
:
(R)
- >1 J! & 81 -!? ! . c1 8 4 9& 351 . 9 3! 3I5 1 E !1 ' 8 . ..& > , I , C 1
- , # +MC # VC : &''' , ,
C )
1
, 27 P ! 1 J " X57 1
C : &''' , 6, -7 )
2
. .'' > , 3M , L -٣١ -
. F1 ' /- H )! 8
8 50 (! ( , MNNN 8 " C % 5 L5 A QV
0 80 D05 !* ' (N,Nb) / ! ( RR,` )& H!B ' 81
0 5
(M)
(! (aO ) 9 RPPP 8 (1 L5! B
3510 RPPV 8 ' + (RbS) RPPP 8 + (RaV) &
801 50 ' L5 8? + (RaN )& 8 ' 4 $%
0/ 0' 0 c40 30 8 6 & (! (aP) "/ & & RPPR 8 Ra,V ) RPPR 8 A 4! C & 9 5 . + + & '.G!
(R)
( RPPa 8 MM,V
0 351 J!! H% = + ? & Qa
0 9 ; - /- 1 & A9 609 9 & J ' (4 +5 (& 9 !
0 0 -! " A 351 ;
(0 c01 (0 J? C 4 !. 8 (V)
.(9B
: # 2H ^7% 1
J! #-!
: 7 1
).
+!1 ' & 8
4' > 91 7B! 1 ' 8 . *! 8- "/ 8 8 91 7B & %5 ]0! 74 ! C - $' 7Y 9 (.5 +0 0' 0" !! 7 H
+9! 8
(a)
. 1 (9 ' / E ( !
:7 1
)&
. 7B ' ' + 0! A0 70' 0! I! 5 4 5 B & + A 4' . !B 7 1 91 7B
. &/& > , I , 447 , C
H 45C :&''', _B # 45C 4 )
1
( &''9 – &''; ) Z D )
2
. .A > , 3M , , 1 O : &''. , , ` )
3
.K*>, I P )
4
-٣٢ -
. 7! ' - ! * ! 7B 4' %
. 9G W (%VR) (/* 8 0 ;09 C*/ -' ! 91 8 $ $ ' ;
. F1 ! * F1
-٣٣ -
: 1 C 2 ).).)&).
0"/ (/*0 50 0/ , J/ 4 , < 9! 05! (0 <0-& A. B 3! A +! ! %S 4 %bP - 1 <. /* ( J? ! '
04 80 J!0! 7B $%
5 A A 8 ! +' (1
05 05/ & '.& ; FG & < ! 5! 9
70 04' 0 3 +! ! 7 (1 A 8 A /. (M)
: J!Y * !
. 9 FG L5 9 A F& 5/ L5 . F1 ' 7 ! 1 /* J? . +9 351 5/ L5 ' H% D/ +G +<5/ J? . (! 1 - ' 8 J0 0 ! J C (1 (/- ( 8 C
0/B 0 0! J9 $%
!! - '=9 A ( H%/ 81 A 9
. ( ' B
: 4 F 1 C 2 )&).)&).
0 (0 / /- J/ ! J/ !
0 0!/ 0& !0 -
L / L (1 9G (/- 04 0 0I 0 ( ' --9 1 (4 ! + A ( 0
/ 09 5 / 351 / H% D/ !9B
J0 0 0 !0 J0/ 0 (9 !
(R)
. 9G (/- C1 H%
: !
H6H C, 7 7 #C 14 P " C R4M 23Y : ./// ,7 ,C )
1
, FO I , JB 4 , + M " J + : .//( , C ,N )
2
. & >, I , .////*/. O .////&/.* , CH
. *& > ,I
-٣٤ -
( &''9) ./A' ) 5 4 F 1 C F / K / 2
C P
C "C P
7 P
% 1 C
% 1 C
% 1 C
20.41
RV,N
3.1
V,b
76.4
`R,S
1980
MNOM
VP,b
a,R
bS,R
MNOR
RR,`
O,V
bN,P
MNOV
RR,R
S,N
`M,N
MNOa
32.4
35.1
RR,O
b,R
14.2
Mb,R
61.4
50.5
bM,P
1985
1990
MNNM
MS,a
a,O
`N,O
MNNR
Mb,R
V,a
OP,a
MNNV
RR,`
21.5
14
21.9
17.1
12
13
13.4
16.5
16.4
RR,R
a,N
4.5
3
3.7
5.4
4.4
5.3
4.7
4.6
6.3
`,S
`R,a
74
83
80.4
77.7
83.6
81.7
81.9
78.9
77.3
`P,V
MNNa
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
RPPa
Ra,V
MS
bP,`
RPPS
B
. E + F ( &''* )./A. ) Z D J 1 : : (/* (1 ! J $9 C /
-٣٥ -
م: '4
CD '4
D
3%D '4
198
0
198
1
198
2
198
3
198
4
198
5
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
ﻥ اﻝ"درات إﻝ اﻝ
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
اﻝات
1 ! J! 4 F 1 C( . ) 2
351 & C A ! $9 9 7! (/* (1 0 0! ' 5 <=G 9 (MNNN – MNNP) +5 (1 81 ! @
0 0 ! ( + $9! = MNNM 8 % * !
0/ *0 ( 7 ! 7B H & --9 !
A0 +09 0 / 8 & > %
!9B ' -' 8 A & +!/ 9!
0' B > +9 ) A. +* '! != 7B ! . -& +
,0 > % + 8B 4 3! ! ! 4
0' - 7 ! (/*! D/ %
5/ 5 (M)
. 7B '
: 7 F "C : ;).)&).
/ A /- A A & 81 J C
: ( S) 8 (9 ' !!
( &''9)./A' ) 5 7 F 1 F/9/ 2
% P
4 P
6 P
%1 ! J! C
%1 ! J! C
%1 ! J! C
R,P
NV,a
S,b
MNOP
M,P
NR,`
b,V
MNOM
P,b
NM,R
O,R
MNOR
M,M
ON,N
N,P
MNOV
B
, H6H C , I 27 >7 R4M : .//* , M ,2C )
. .; > , I , -٣٦ -
1
M
0.9
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.23
0.21
0.4
0.60
P,SP
ON,R
91.7
70.5
80.4
72.5
83.2
82.8
78.2
80.1
88.2
87.4
86.9
OO,R
N,O
7.3
29.2
19.3
26.9
16.6
16.9
21.4
19.5
11.6
12.2
12.5
11.3
MNOa
1985
1990
1991
1994
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
P,`P
O`,`
MM,b
RPPa
P,SP
`M,b
R`,N
RPPS
. (2006 -1981 ) Z D J 1 : !0 L05! + 81 , 7! (9 !
0 +05 (01 0 0 0I 0 ( % OO,R )/0* ,0 A
0 (% MM,b) /0* 0 +0 /- ! ' 351 (!4 ( RPPS – MNOP )
. 4 (%M) 9 6!* -' !" (B 4 100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
05
20
03
20
01
20
99
19
97
19
94
19
90
19
84
19
82
(آE4ا
<' ا
9(4%
ا
<' ا
(
4ا
<' ا
أ
19
19
80
اﻝ$%اﻝ&آ
: 81 J 4 ! ! (/* @.
اﻝات
7 F 1 F ( & ) 2
A0 J0 0 J/ A !? 9 7! (/* (1 0! +0 >1 + ! A. %
. RPPP 8 <! + -
9 " /-
81 J ' J A 74 6/& 8 9G 6 ! , 9 !! FG / ; 7B & -! F1 8" - C
-٣٧ -
091 7B +! 6.! L!*& 6!*& ;9 ;% 1 J ! . * ? * 7!
: 1 #O R ) K).)&).
0 0 ' ( 84 > D/ ( ' 91 +9 (/- ' / %&
0! > D/ - '=9 A ' K' 65 ' - (/- %
1 > 0 0! (/ A ! > ! 91 8 ! A 4 L'
. 91 +9 1 A. 1 E / ;% >1B !
0 !/B 84 6 / (١)
. !? C
B 74 (/*! 1
801 0 $%
8 !B 9 ! & 69
0 0 /-0 - 9 . ! ! & ! !
0 >01 +0 /E +1B ' ! -5 8? C
@0 D0 H% I'/ ? ! 4 ! ! 9 (/ J / ! (9 ( (" ) !
( 2005-1980) ة%D( ! ا
وE%A اFدرات ا ر إ1( G H اI!آ% ا/٦/ 62
ول ر$ا
%
%
2
%^7%
%%
%
%O
%G
%
%B
MPP
R,M
M,M
ab,N
V
P,O
a,S
aM,b
MNOP
MPP
M,M
a,Pa
P,Pa
aO,N
P,Vb
N,b
Vb,P
MNOR
MPP
M,N
b,`
aO,R
R,`
R,V
`,O
VP,a
MNOV
MPP
P,RN
a,S
aa
S,V
P,MM
MP,R
VS,b
MNOa
MPP
M,S
Q
aS
V,P
R,b
S,S
aR,a
MNOS
MPP
V,aO
P,MM
a`,a
O,P
P,MM
MP,S
VP,a
MNOb
MPP
`,V
M,V
aa,V
R,O
P,ON
b,S
VR,N
MNO`
MPP
`,b
M,`
aM,V
M,V
P,N
MV,M
VV,O
MNOO
MPP
S,M
R,a
aR,R
P,N
M,P
Mb,`
VM
MNON
MPP
P,O
P,N
ab,S
P,b
V,V
MV,`
Va,R
MNNP
MPP
P,O
P,N
Va
P,`
V,R
RV
V`,a
MNNM
MPP
R,b
V
S,a
P,S
a,R
RV,b
bP,`
MNNV
MPP
R,b
M,`
`,M
P,V
O,R
RV,a
Sb,`
MNNS
MPP
R,O
P,S
S,S
P,R
O,`
RP,V
bR
MNNb
MPP
R,O
P,S
V,S
P,a
MR,V
Rb
Sa,S
MNN`
R
B
. .'9 > , F 1C , 16
:./A& ,=# ,J54 )
-٣٨ -
1
MPP
S
P,N
V,M
P,`
MR,R
R`,N
SP,R
MNNO
MPP
M,b
V,a
R
P,R
MM
RM
bP,O
MNNN
MPP
b,N
V
M,S
P,S
MM,b
MO,S
SO
RPPP
MPP
V,O
M,V
M,N
P,R
MV
MS,a
ba,a
RPPM
MPP
S,R
R,M
R
R,M
N,`
RM,M
S`,O
RPPR
MPP
a,O
a,R
R,M
M,a
N,`
RP,O
SO
RPPV
MPP
a
M,N
M,N
P,O
`,`
RN,N
SV,O
RPPa
MPP
VM,V
M,b
M,V
M,R
V,b
Mb,S
aa,S
RPPS
.E + F, (2006 -1981 ) Z D J 1 : :(b) 8 (9 MNNP 8 (% aP) "/ % / /* ( & QM
0 0- A0 0/ 0 9 (/* / /* 7 MNNV 80 0 9& (% S,a) (/* ! , "/ ! $%
.51 /*
80
@! !B & -9 MNNR 8 !. RPPa 8 (% M,N)
0 !0 =! , ! Y !! B ! ( 7
!0 $%
351 RPPM 8 (% ba,a) MNNN 8 (% bP,O) !B & . (..../ – &– c!) >1B ! @ RPPS 8 (% aa,S) &
0! 0- & 0! +' ' ! ! & ! 8? QR
. !B ( & J! %& I.
: -' 2 " +' % (E. %
J! . -5/ L5 J!! 4 ' 89 ' ! 351 Q
-0 0 L0G 8-(M) ! ! & (1 % 4 Q
. -! <4
. 9 !"& < ? )! ! 7B & !9B AI.! (I- 7' Q
A.01 * -?'& ! 7 ^5 ! / ' 3 Q
-1K! ] (! + 4! D4 5 -4! /) 9! ;!1 (
(R)
. !9B AI.! 8 ' / - / 7B J + $%
45 H%!
. .9+.K > , H6H C , 7 # G : .//' ,F ,[6 )
1
P $7Y ) 2 J! PD- X# $ , &''9 , ,S )
2
.( www.mowaten.com
-٣٩ -
0! 0 9& (% O,b) !! g ! <9 4' ," / ' qV
0' 0/ <09 (%VM,V) & RPPS 8 ' ! $%
( (RPPa – MNNP )+5 (1
!0! c0! 8" g ( & 9& (%`R,R) !! 2 ( 4
(M)
.RPPa 8 (% Mb,S)
0 04 81 5 B ' / ! 7! : J!Y -9& / -' !
0 F0e 0/- ! = ' ( (G I4 9 (*' Q
0 !09 " ; ,& +4 8 ! 351 & ; $9
. 91 9 --9 +& - ! (1 ' 91 +9 ! "B QJ
. ;9 9 (.'B '0! 0 70 0E J? ' " E ! ' 8 QF
0 5! A A 8 ( H! J? 7B (R)
. +9 ! 7 ' !
704 -0 = K' H% 6 FG (/- +g !
C01 0' . & J' ' D = J '. 4 90 ! RPPM 8 ( SRb ) 4 %1 8 4' H%. 1 *B L
(V)
: ! c1 5 ? A9* C-! ' (0? – F ) B F& 7 -' 8 L4 -9 ] *0 09 (0 -& '. B 7' 9 & H A! (
.+ . !9B W A W C4 H%! 91 )
. 8 JI. A9 5 A9 <5& 0 0 (0/- & ,! <9& A9! 84 / ,& . ' . 91 +9 E /
+& . +& A E (1G 8 . (- .I ,E + F ,&''9 D )
1
, 7 2 : &''& , H3, 5
)
2
. .9. > ,= , , . &9. > , W$ I P .......... , # +C 5 4 : &''K, ,+
)
-٤٠ -
3
. 3 E ,& +05 (01 A ( + 4) 8 ! ! Q
: ! ! ( 9 (RPPS – MNNS)
ryt = 0.90
: 1 F% L ! $%- " &
Y t = a0 + at
Y%t = −51.950 + 37.724t
: ( J & (4 K' H% . = K' !
R2 =
δ 2Y%
= 0.81
σ 2y
( . /) .5 (1 ! (" +9 - %
: ! ;% *' ( 81 F=
2
Y%
2
y% y
δ
S
.
n −m
= 39.8
m −1
′ ) = 5.12 -' %S > (v 2 = 9,v 1 = 1) 9 9 F ′ F(1.9
0 %0
. !4 ! (" ; . % ( K' F > F ′ ! !
^0 0 ' -' ! J 9 =! ") L
. ; / ' c ;
: ; RPMP 8 ' - 9 +5 84! E!
~
Y2010 = 541.634
: (9 P,NS + (! y2010 44 4 . ;% 4" > &
[ y% 2010 − 2S yyˆ , yˆ 2010 + 2S
%
yy
] = [428.234
,
655.034]
: 9 RPMS 8 !! ( H%/
~
y 2015 = 740.254
: (9 P,NS $ (! y2015 44 4 . ;% 4" > &
[ bRb,OSa OSV,bSa ]
:אאא6−٢−٢−١
-٤١ -
A C1 ( ' -' - B >& (/*
0
' 0/ . /- 9 ) - / +' ? 9G
: 9 & -4 / ( 9! ! ")(M). . (&)
: 7 2
)%
. 8- (/ ; > " H- ! W A . I (/
9 ( . F1 (1 -9 / %& ' 9 : 7 2
)F
. ( & 9/ (4! 7 1 4 ( 9 . B @. ( RPPS Q MNOP ) +5 (1 ; ' A (
: (9 ' + *E , H6H C , #O 1 1 23 : .//' ,C ,N )
1
./ > ,I
, , + # 3 1 : .//( , , )
. .'& > , I
-٤٢ -
2
UC 7 ! J! C ( &''9 – ./A' ) 5 267 1 4 / (/ 2
B UC J! 1 C
! J! 1 C
1 % % 7 31.6
66.1
16188
1980
RS,b
`P,S
MN`OM
MNOM
RR,`
bb,S
MS`SS
MNOR
RM,O
`P,V
M`ORN
MNOV
RP,b
bN,P
MbMSS
MNOa
18.5
10,7
21,9
13,8
11,3
11.0
11.6
12.6
11.2
12.1
9.3
10
6.0
5.5
5.3
21
23.3
23.6
23.4
70.8
67.3
64.8
62.4
41.1
36.3
44.7
53.0
56.8
60.7
54.3
57.4
50.7
57.4
52.5
46.5
47.6
42.7
47.2
15570
10709
27915
25040
23544
26936
31066
39178
46469
61374
52856
60385
45211
43724
43010
187535
220744
235754
236768
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
RO,V
Sb,O
VR`PMN
RPPa
V`,N
Sa,R
SPRVbN
RPPS
B
.E + F , (2006 -1981 ) Z D J 1 : : ( `) 8 (9 !
+ (MP`PN) & MNOP 8 + (MbMOO) A9 QM
: 9 H% / MNOb 8 -٤٣ -
0 0 MNOM 80 "0 * 9 + 4 */ ! Q
0 0 0/ A09 & > 85 ;9 9 9 & . ? @ H- A 1
, c1 L4 ( 7! 7 / */ ! <9G H 8
0 (%70) & (%10) 9 4 E ! I - J9! ( !
/ (/ + (5,45) ; C ! 0 6 %
(/ + (3,95)! C A
A0 A9 & > " C H% ! 75 <J (
0 & !- 89 A9 J9 & H% 8
(M)
. ( 351 C 351 '
0 '0 8 J!! ( t* 3! 5 / 9 H% <. '
0 0' ^0/ 9 ( J- ) ? /* 5 + FG
. >1 -9 ( C > A4 ' 8 -9 %
(R)
@ ( & 351 & J 1 $9 QJ
1990 80 H% 9G W ( ( @! (
A09 0 7 F1 & J 4 (1 89 H% W
!/ (/*! 5 F& 8
4' 1g . ? ! J @
. + & > 1985 8 % / A9 '
80 ( %70,8) 0& 1980 80( %66,1) 91 +9 9G ! L5 Q09
091 +9 9& ! 351 (!4 1986 8 (%67,3 )& 1985
. 91 7B ' > ( +/% 8B '
0 04' ( 2003Q1987 )+05 (01 0 8,4 0 0 5. QR
U!/ U<9 & 2003 8 + ( 236786) & 1987 8 + (27915)
: & > 351 + $%
. /- I5 / + ;5 (1 + W * > L5 H6H C , , 1 X
J -% : .//K, ,+
)
1
. ;K > , I ,.//; . ;* > , I P )
-٤٤ -
2
80 J09! !0= ()! + A! 7 ' <9& (- 7! 09 U H- A FG A (/ + & > I" . -& > >01 ( ! " +' ' ) FG >01B (0 +*! / + D . A 8 ) +. &
. H- A + ' 8
;% B
(01 c01 L04 ( 8 A4 ) - 1 & / $9 0 - / 1 6! 6 8 A4 ) - 6/ " " C
0 c1 L4 @! H%! 4' 6 ( 6 81 7 (/
J09! 0 <0 7B +9 ( 7 ' I C J A4!
* 4' H% 9 1991 8 H% ( ! 91 I -
. ( 8 A4 <* 91 7B & + F1 /
(/*0 !0 ,0 c01 L4 +! (1995-1985) 8 L4 @ (%90-70) ! $%
/ ! 9& (%70-65)
(M)
. 9& A0 (!4 A 8 A4 ' 8 A9 / 4 3051 0' 80
C0 351 ! ! 0' (1 A "/ 9 J- +
L* & '.& L5 (R)
. 91 +9 <&
A0 3051 <9K! .4 2000 8 " * 29 ' 4 -. <9G 0 9 / c1 L4 > +! ' <& 8 ' 7
5 & B ( (%70)& (%105 ) 351 8 B ' /9 8
(V)
. + ' L4! 1 81 B 0 $%
91 +9 (1 4 -9- :'
.9G 1 ' U / 6-9 6<9& ! 4 C51 QM
. $%
81 ! /9 ' QR
. *9 > , W$ I P , + M " J + :.//( ,C , N )
1
,27 P ! 1 1 J " X57 1
C : 2000 ,6 ,-7 )
2
. 99+98 > , W$ I P , 3M , L www.ALwatan.com C P , 1! : 2003 ,=C4 ,F )
-٤٥ -
3
80 9! 8 L4 E! + / A ! c1 L4 ] QV
.- !9B A4 '
0! +0 +09 04! <.B ! ( < !/ Qa
(M)
.8 ( ! H%/ >!/
(R)
. += A* 2 ! ] : c1 L4 ( (1 MNNR 8 % A9* ( . (/ + (52-49) ! ] C ! I& - J9! *
. (/ + (70-55) ! ] C ! A J9! *
80 0 (/ + (4,05) C ! - 4' 8 L4 ,0 1991 80 01g 0 H% (/ + (11,25) & ( , 1987
7B ' I 5 C ;G C ! +95 L <. ' / .
. (/ + (43) & A4 C ( & +9
c0 04 (0 0& U I / / 4' / 4 <9G 0/ 0 !0 "2 9 H% J 51 / 4 <9&
. F1 ; C*/ ' ;9 +*! +!
:(RPPa – MNOP )+5 ! ! (/*
ا
)رة2
ردات إ%< ا8<
I ا2
ردات إ%< ا8<
ﻥ اﻝ"درات إﻝ ا'ﻝ
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
19
80
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
0
اﻝات
UC 7 ! J! 1 C F ( ; ) C 2
+05 (01 091 +09 09& 0& 0 !0 L05 7! (/* & RPPa 80 ' C "/ & A5 RPPP 8 U<! ! $%
A9 (MNNN –MNOP)
. .;> ,I , F
F , C3 B , # I% : 1999 ,C ,N )
1
. www.Iqtissadya.com , * >, B , &''K # 7 2 UDC )
2
-٤٦ -
0 0' ; F C. & * & 9G (/- ' " H% A0 0 A 4 B 351 9 0 09 0 0! ! @ ? ' (! ( & > H%0/ . . 1 ( 7 ' 4I (/* 8/ ;9
0' . .51 44 ! RPPS 8 ' 9G W & ! L5 09 ( A0 ;09 9 + 9 4! 5
. c1 8 4 8 351 : 1 C 2 ).)&)&).
044 0-9 !/ & D/ -B H% >!/ ! J/
0 0I4 0-9 5 +G ].! D/ - & '.& ! 9
. ! & F1 1
A0 /-0 A0 0I 09 ," & 81 , C
: ( O) 8 (9 ' ! / A ( 2005 -1980) 5 7 F 1 C 3B (A) 2
% R
%% P
% 4 P
%6 P
B
100
MPP
21,6
RR,R
62,7
bV,O
15,7
Ma
1980
MNOM
MPP
Mb,S
bO,R
MS,V
MNOR
MPP
RR,V
bR,V
MS,a
MNOV
MPP
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
RP,R
22
25,9
21,2
23,6
34,5
35,3
38,8
33,3
31,9
25,5
25,5
24,2
23,8
27,2
28,3
26,8
bO,N
64
55,9
64,2
64,8
55,7
39,2
46,6
51,8
55
59,9
58,8
59,1
64,4
64,3
57,7
60,5
MP,N
14
18,2
14,8
11,6
9,8
10,3
14,2
14,8
13,2
14,6
15,7
16,7
11,8
11,5
14
12,7
MNOa
1985
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
MPP
Rb,S
bM,S
MR
RPPa
-٤٧ -
MPP
MN,S
bN,`
MP,O
RPPS
.E + F , (2006 -1981 ) Z D J 1 : : (8) 8 (9 80(% N,O) 0& MNON 80(% MO,R ) 9& /- A ! A9 QM
& ( L5 8" A ! + @ H% / MNNR
. RPPS 8 ( %MP,O ) & ( RPPP 8 U<! 9 8" MNNN 8 (%Mb,`)
9 $9 9 ! ' /- A ' A9 %
(1 FG /- / A 351 ! H0 ' !9B 4 351 J!! ! ! A 0 (=*0 3051 / /- 9 <9 ! ' c4 & > (M)
. +5
c40 91 +9 I& ' (1 !- A +
L* ! 9G
+! L5 & > + C 351 / '
(VNNb )0 A5 /- A 4 4 5' 4! /% / 0& '.& (%M`,`)k! ; (! RPPa 8 + (VNVVb)& MNNP 8 +
0 L05 0& > MNNM 8 MP 8 " /
(R)
. B > L5
A0 0& +0 0I5 / J ( 9 C. & /- A (V)
. 1 J FG 5/ 8 15 H-
0 09 / %1 ;9 9 85 " % !9B A4 85 A QR
0 A0 0 @ <& A */ ! <9G
% ba,O 0 L5 9& & ! -
-9 H% <. ' FG . I- H- A ! B A9 J H% / MNNP 8
H6H C ( 7 # G ) [6 F . - J FM
: .//' , ,+7 )
1
. & > , .//'/(/.' J! .//'/9/A , I , , C 2 P ... 1 1 J " X57 1
C &''' ,6 ,-7 )
2
. .'& >, W$ I
CH H6H C ,+ 4C 2
5 2 7 I P : ./// ,2C ,I )
. K> , I ,
-٤٨ -
3
@0 MNNa 8 MNNM 8 % 9& & A ! 351 A9 @0 ;%0 MNNM 80 MP 8 " ! H% A (M)
. +9 * 9 A !
0 A ( 9! A ! B + !
; 0 0/9 I (/
' (I! 9& L! , 9
F01 0 0 4! 8 A9* 8 ' !/ (/*! 8
(
. ' +4! A 8 >1 -9 -9 %
!0 +0 <. '
(R)
. 4 /9 -41 / 6!* 7 ' 4'
91 7B! 9G !/ ") ! FG ' A
. FG ! /- + D/ J/ & '.&
: (9 ' ! / ! , C ( 2005-1980 ) 5 4 F 1 C F /9/ 2
"C P
%PC P
100
40,3
32,4
27,3
MPP
aV,V
Ra,N
VM,O
1980
MNOM
MPP
aP,a
RS,N
VV,`
MNOR
MPP
VN,N
RS,O
Va,V
MNOV
MPP
VR,R
Ra,O
aV
100
100
100
100
100
34,5
50
35,5
35,5
46,2
28,1
32,6
48,7
50,5
44
37,4
17,4
15,8
14,2
9,8
MPP
aO
aV,M
O,N
MNOa
1985
1989
1990
1991
1992
MNNV
MPP
SP,R
aP
N,O
100
100
100
100
100
46,1
42,1
40,8
37,8
41,7
45,1
48,1
47,8
49,8
48
8,8
9,8
11,4
12,4
10,3
% C
%7 % R
B
MNNa
1995
1997
1999
2000
2001
H6H C, 1C
# #G 1CCH # 7 1 : .//A , ,+
)
1
. (+9 > , I , , W$ I P ,7 7 #C 14 P " C R4M 23Y : .///, 7 ,C . *)K >
-٤٩ -
)
2
100
100
43
40,6
47,8
48,2
9,7
11,2
MPP
aV,b
ab,N
N,S
2002
2003
RPPa
MPP
VO,V
SV,a
O,V
RPPS
.E + F , (2006-1981) Z D J 1 : : (N) 8 (9 L5 ' 8
" A % + C (! B / QM
F0G 0 04 (1 & . (MNOS –MNOP) +5 (1 81 !
3051 50 $9 J9 & 8
" C % ( 6& 5
& MNNP 8 (% MS,O)& MNOP 8 (% R`,V) 81 ! A9 ' . RPPa 8 (%N,S)
80 (% aO,`) & MNOP 8( % VR,a) C A 4 ! L5 QR
8(% a`,O)& -9 8" 81 ! ' !/ A9 9 H% MNNP
. MNNM 8 (% SP,S )- ! =! ! MNNN
0=! +5 5 -! 4! 4' A A !! QV
& (% aV,b) 0& RPPa 80 ' -9 8? MNNa 8( % SP,R ) - ! C0 "1 / < >1B 4 A 4 5 ! 4! -
: & A A ! A9 . (0 D A9* & , +' 6-* ;% ; ]5 . MNNM 8 MP 8 " ! " !9B ! 0 ' 1 D/ ! ! 6 8 FG C. . 0 A / ( ' ) +5 (1 J? & . ! -9 A " A 1
2 0 0 0 . (MP) 8 " "g / 4
! 8" (MNNb Q MNNR) +5 (1 ; $ ! B D1 ' (4 I / (9 / // (1 A $%
.51' C. $"g
>01 0 + !" ( D / $9 ! !" ( D
80 A09 & '.G! 9 ; - . / J!! 80 04 0E >0 1 8/ ' !" ( D / (9 / $%
+%01 +0 <9G 8? (*' FG C/ L5 ' c1
-٥٠ -
0!/ (/*! 9G E ' 9G (= ! 351 ' A9*
0' F1 81 5 / 351 ! 74 " & ( ;% ;9 9
. 9 9 J (! ") % >1B ? >
: 1 #O R )&)&)&).
051 *E H% >!/ % G L !
: ! ! (" '=9 L -/ 09 0 ;0 8 ' ! A ' '=9 L . J ! ' ' (1 <& 6
. -9 ' & L & 0B 0 0' 0 0" ' G L 0? WI0 ! "2' (1 ' * 7B > 7B ' JI.
0 0 0!4 7 (1 8 6 / %& +!/ / !! !?
(M)
. 4 8 81.
91 +9 1 A9 9 K' G L & +!
: & 69 / . 8 (/*! ! /* ( A 9 . - 1 -9 A L 89 +. 3 K' G L ! "2 WI C
. - 8B (/ J L '
( &''9 )./A' ) 5 2 F 1 C F ( .' ) 2
%
%
2
%^7%
%%
%
%O
%G
%
%B
MPP
P,M
S,O
Ma,M
MR,R
N,`
Ra,b
VV,S
MNOP
MPP
V,M
S,N
MS,V
b,b
Rb,a
Mb,V
Rb,a
MNOR
MPP
a,`
b,a
MV,R
b,a
VS,V
MP,O
VR,V
MNOV
%R
B
MPP
V,`
O,`
MS,a
b,V
VP,V
MP,V
RS,V
MNOa
MPP
a,S
`,O
Ma,b
O,V
RV,O
MM
VP
MNOS
MPP
a,N
`,N
RP,R
b,P
MS,a
MP,O
Va,O
MNOb
MPP
S,S
b,`
MN,S
`,V
MS,M
MP,b
VS,V
MNO`
> , I , 1
- , - M P 267 7 : &''. , , C )
. &;
-٥١ -
1
MPP
a,S
`,O
MN,a
S,V
RM,V
S,S
Vb,R
MNOO
MPP
`,R
N,R
Ma,a
a,b
M`,V
S,b
aM,`
MNON
MPP
O
MV
MV,R
S,M
Ma,V
b,V
aP,M
MNNP
MPP
N
MR,O
S,a
MS,S
MS,S
S
Vb,O
MNNM
MPP
N,b
O,N
V,O
M`,O
MO
S,`
Vb,R
MNNR
MPP
N,b
O,N
V,O
M`,O
MO
S,`
Vb,R
MNNV
MPP
M`,V
O,b
Ma,`
V,R
Mb,N
b,V
VV
MNNa
MPP
MS,M
N,a
RP,b
V,R
MR,R
`,O
VM,`
MNNS
MPP
Mb,S
MP,N
MV,`
R,O
MR,O
`,`
VP,b
MNNb
MPP
Mb,S
MP,b
R,V
M`,N
MM,O
O,S
VP,a
MNN`
MPP
RM,O
O,b
M`,N
R,`
MM,O
O,S
VP,`
MNNO
MPP
RR,S
R,O
M`
R,V
MR,O
O,b
RO,N
MNNN
MPP
RP,`
`,a
N,V
R,M
M`,b
`,V
VS,b
RPPP
MPP
MS
O,`
MS,S
R,O
MS,b
N,a
VV
RPPM
MPP
Ra,O
MP
MM,N
a,V
MR,V
MM,N
Ra,O
RPPR
MPP
RS,M
S,b
MR,S
a
RP,S
MV,a
MO,N
RPPV
MPP
RS,M
N,R
MM,b
a
M`,R
Mb,S
Mb,a
RPPa
MPP
aV,`
S,V
N,M
MR,M
Ma,M
MR,a
MR,R
RPPS
.(2006 -1981 ) Z D J 1 : : ( MP ) 8 (9 /%0 ! ( ! 351 ' 8
( 9 H
QM
: -
H% (" . " /- 81 9 -! -' ! 9G (/- (" ; ; ' 9G (/- 8 %& ! FG (/
6!* -0 0& '.& - ! ! <' +4 8 C. 6!*! J= '
0 F& ' $/ +9 !4 1 (1! 9G (/- , @. (1!
.0"/B ," ' / 9 L5! D/ ;% B .A (M)
: 9G (/- ' 6!* . %1) >1 %
01 50! L 5! L :2B ^ Q
0! , ! ! ! +9 71 DB 84 35 ;% I L4
;0 0 09G 0 W 9& ' L !
0) 0B F0G 0 1 4 !! 4 U! . ;
.(1 L 91
، اﻡN!;"% ﻡ)<
ا،!!(2L
ات ا
و! وا$% ء اM ت ﺕ;هA! وإﻡH!Gرة ا)! ا$% ا:٢٠٠٢ ، K ،! K 1
.٥٢ ص،اهة
-٥٢ -
, (/
' 6!* ' ("' :CH ^ % Q
(04 50) I (/
0 (0/- 0! 0/ .0-! , 6!*
/ 4 ' ) " A 0/ ' /- A ) ! 2 '
.1B
K' +9 / J= ' D/ FG (/
/ *E k! .9G -/
(" U*E ! ! (" >
0 %
(%aa,NO)
(M)
(RPPaQMNNN) +5 (1 ! / ("
09G (/- & * %
! / !! ! &
04' (R) RV,R (" *E k! ! .6!* & ( (/
(V)
+9 "" C U4' (%`,R) (" *E k!
. ! ( ! * (4 B ! C. . ! ( ! 9 (! A9 8 ' 8 . " 7 (I & 4' . ! ( ! 91 +9 8 ' C1 (a)
. ! ( ! c1 <9& 4 . ( 6& 5 FG + >1 (/ - @ ! ( A9 ' !/ 4! ( / 4
. 2 ! ( 1
%0
RPPV 8 (% MR,S ) & MNOO 8 (% MN,a) /* ( 9 QR
+09 1 A9 * 4' ! 7 ' 1 91 +9 1 -9 C1
0
c4 ! ( 4! ) /* ( 7 A +. & 91
. 4! 5 ' ( 0& MNOP 80(% VV,S)0 3051 0!B 0 0 -9 QV
0 0 0& 3 !B ! & B H% RPPa 8(% Mb,a)
$%0
A9* ' - ' ' 9 + >1B <9G
رة$%آ اK F( !هSC وﺕTMH اM !UاL اEآ,ت وا2) ا،دارL! اH%( !) اRH ا:٢٠٠٥ ،
ادرG ،!ﺵ3 1
.٣٢٤ ص،!) ﻡ) ا
ول ا،!)! ا
ول ا
.٣٢٥ ،+ ا اWD 2
.٣٢٥ ،+ ا اWD 3
.٢٧٠ + ٢٦٩ ص، +, دﻡ، H
) اG; ﻡ، د ا)ﺹة1%23ت اA, ا: ١٩٩٧ ، دX ﻡ، G ز- ،دX ﺵ- 4
-٥٣ -
(0 0'/ 0? + 9 (9 7B H & 81 !
0 7B & 8 A! C' 0 2 0 A0 A!0 J= ' C 81
0- ! ) >1B ! ! 5 >1 -9 9/ . RPPa 8 ( % RS,M )& MNNP 8( %O) (/ k/ k
&
: 91 8 '=9 L ! ! (/*
40
35
"د اور7ا
"د اور7ا
ی%(4K 'ان
(L
اور ا
(M
اور ا
('ان ا(آ
ى:'ان ا
30
%ا" ـL)
زی ا%
ا
(
ا
ول ا
(
ا
ول ا
20
15
ى:'ان ا
ی%(4K 'ان
(
ا
ول ا
25
"د اور7ا
(M
اور ا
(L
اور ا
ی%(4K 'ان
10
(M
اور ا
('ان ا(آ
('ان ا(آ
5
(L
اور ا
ى:'ان ا
0
1980
2004
ام%3ا
1 #O R (K ) 2
+05 0 0 /*0 !B 7 ! 4 L5 7! (/* !
: ! ( 9 & A9 %
(RPPS Q RPPV ) ' ! $%
A9 A0 (0/ 84 ' E*& 8 A* =!
= A A , < /* !B 7 ! 3!
(0 A (/ ! 7 ' !/ H% / . ) 4 * 5 (B C0 ' ].! H% ! "2 ! /* !B 7 ! 1 0 0 05 04' ( 6.' ;% ; <" " *0 +!1 = A ' 8 9 ( t*
(0 70 0 0 8 / /. I! - -t! t* H (10 * ! H% D/ 4 & 81. J ' A (/*! 8
0 =.0 ! 3 i .... 91 ' ;9 . (RPPS QMNNS ) +05 (1 t A y 8 ! ! Q
: 9
ryt = 0.91
: (/* %1) ! " &
Y t = a0 + a.t
-٥٤ -
Y%t = −64.996 + 40.459t
; ( J & (4 K' H% . = : ; ;%
2
δ y%
= 0.82
σ 2y
R2 =
: J R2 . /) .5 (1 (" +9 ! - %
F=
δ y2% n − m
.
= 41.1
S yy2% m − 1
%
F ′ = 5.12 v 2 = n − m = 9 v1 = m − 1 = 1 %S > !4 F ′ &
. . ( K' ! F > F ′
t=16 : 9 5 4! E! %&
~
y 2010 = 582.348
%&
. P,NS $ (! y2010 44 4 . 4" > &
[ y% 2010 − 2S yy% , y% 2010 + 2S yy% ] = [462.548 , 702.148]
H%/
y 2015 = 784.643
: (9 P,NS $ (! y2015 44 4 . ;% 4" > &
[ y 2015 − 2S yyˆ , y 2015 + 2S yyˆ ] = [664.843 , 904.443]
/ + 5 / c A 9 9 %- ;9 J! %&
: (9 ' @. ( &'.9) &'.') 267 P + + ( ..) 2
;9 !
Qa`,MMa
`PR,MaO
bSS,PVa
RPMP
QSP,`ON
NPa,aaV
OSV,bSa
RPMS
L 2 1 : 0' 0 0 0' 91 +9 L ( & ;9 ' 9 &
+09 0! 9 ! /* : -
( ! /* 69
0 890 1 ! /* 7! 1t! (/*! 91
;%0 6! ; ! : ! ; ! 1 % ( 9
70 0' 0B 0 & A.1 B 6 8 ' (
FG FG ' C. 4 ! J/ %
/ -' !9B / 8/ 05 +09 % 9 A (9 L4 %
- /* ;5 8 8 %& . F1 ' ' +
:)א
)א2א8א−٣−٢−١
-٥٥ -
0-' 704 8B <"! (1999 – MNOP ) +5 (1 U9 ; ;9 -*
+0 0 (4458) 9 5 , ( MNNM – MNON ) .I' ; ;9 0 U0 0 +0 0 (21556) 4! 1994 8 6 k! 1992 8 0 k0! 9 %
A9 8" ( !! / 8? +!/ !! 05 ? 8 L4 L5 U . + (1258) 4! 1997 8 ' 6 (M) 60 L09 0 (% 24 Q % 20) 0! & !! 4 * @4 1
0 609 5 L5 A 351 !/ !! 351
0 0' 81 5 (! ( 4' (2003-2000) 8B ' U .I' 74 ;9
8 + (80) & ( ;9 3I' (9 2002 8 (31,5) & H!B
04! RPPa 8 9 & ( 2003 8 4' + (28) & 3I5 %
A9 2002
(500) 0 81 5 F& ' A9 & 351 %
L9& / + ( `O)
(/*0! 0 +
(R)
8 ' (! C (250-220) & 4! ' 8 ' (! C
%
&. I" 5 + +9 4 5 (1 4 C51 9 !/
0 6. %
5 ! 8 +1 & ( ;9 ' 3I5
: (9
M (&''9 – ./A' ) 5 + + /.& / 2
+ ( 45C )
1 ) (45C
1 + 1 1 45C
( 45C P)
(45C P ) B
QNbbS
bNRV
M`SP
QaNMS
MbMOO
OR`V
MNOP
QMOPS`
M`Ra
bSRM
QMMSVb
MN`OM
`RaS
MNOM
QMV`aR
RPMS
SNVN
Q`OPV
MS`S`
`NSa
MNOR
QMSa``
RVSR
SMNS
QMPROR
M`ORN
`Sa`
MNOV
QMVab`
RbOO
aSO`
QOOOP
MbMSS
`R`S
MNOa
MVNPR
MbbO
a`SN
QNMaV
MSS`P
baS`
MNOS
Q`bNO
VPMM
RMOO
QSSMP
MP`PN
SMNN
MNOb
QRPSNa
`VRM
`O`M
QMR`RV
R`NMS
MSMNR
MNO`
QMPS`R
MaabO
bbbRS
QNNa`
RSPaP
MSPNV
MNOO
+MPS`
RabPM
NMVN
+MPMNb
RVSaa
VV`aP
MNON
+VOa`
VP`OS
MbaNN
+RPVab
RbNVb
a`ROR
MNNP
QN`OP
RMROb
M`RMO
+`aVO
VMPbb
VOSPa
MNNM
QRSRVR
MVNab
RP``a
QaaSO
VNM`O
Va`RP
MNNR
QVRMSO
MaVMM
RMPP`
QMMSM
ababN
VSVMO
MNNV
QaRRSb
MNRMV
RPbPS
QRMbSM
bMabN
VNOMO
MNNa
QVR`RP
RPMVb
Ra`SM
QORNa
SROSb
aaSbR
MNNS
QaaPMO
MbVb`
ROSRP
QMSaNO
bPVOS
aaOO`
MNNb
.E + F &''9 )./// Z D )
1
, I , 14 2D J! $ 45C % : 2004 . 2D , )
2
. www.aliqtissadya.com: 51 >
-٥٦ -
QMNPOO
RbMRV
M`OVP
QMRSO
aSRMM
aVNSV
MNN`
QRb`Sa
MbN`P
MSa`V
QMMROM
aVPMP
VRaaV
MNNO
QRObPP
MaaMP
Raa`P
QaMVP
MO`SVS
VOOOP
MNNN
QMVaVVM
SVRPa
MbRNOb
+RObSS
MO`SVS
RMbMNP
RPPP
QMabSSN
`aMOS
MbONNa
+RRaVS
RRP`aa
RaVM`N
RPPM
QMbPOP
MMNbbb
MNbRSV
+OPMbS
RVS`Sa
VMSNMN
RPPR
QMV`abS
NNVPV
MbS`Vb
+ROR`M
RVb`bO
RbSPVN
RPPV
QRMV`NP
MMVRRN
MVS`NP
Q`OPPP
VR`PMN
RaNPMN
RPPa
QRSb`NP
RaSS`N
M`O`RM
Q`OPbN
SPRVbN
aRaVPP
RPPS
.E + F , (&''*)./A.) Z D J 1 : ;%0 1 > ' 5 ( .4 ' ;9 7 ( &
6!.0 0 H0
FG c4 5 "! 9 8 ( ' 4 ' -
A0 ' 9 FG 6 A . 6 9 (!4 ' .
0 0/9 80 + ' ! 8 1 7 ' . !B 9 8 !B 7 ' (" "B % 9
0 0 (% bP) 5 (/* %& 6! 1 5 A U @! ; ;9 '
L F1 ! ( 8 L4 (% NP) 8 (/*! E >1B 5. 9& ! 9 C. %
' +4 C. 5
L & 45 " " / . U . + 9 I
0' 0 U90 0 ' (9 4 % A J=! C
0 1t0! (/*! (1 ! 91 - 8 U
0 +09 W ' 74 ,! -I
C*G A0. 091 7B ' ' ; W / 5
: ! J!B ( 9 ! 5 ! ; ;9 ' 85 9
0/9 U 0 U I U /
. ( (G 9 & : 9 (/
– H0% 8
A A9* H% A .51
. 91 7B A H 7' '
. 91 +9 * ' 81 C QJ
. C. Q 09
0--9 +& - U ! (1 ' 91 +9 ! "B – . ;9 9 (.'B '0! 0 70 0E J? ' " E ! ' 8 Q 0
5! A A 8 ( H! J? 7B . +9 ! 7 '
-٥٧ -
801 0B $ 91 7 ; ! -9 /E 8B &
0! $%0
0= >1B ! ! $=/ +
9 A %05 60-9 A C
)! Fe /- ! =! U! 91 +9 /-
. 8 (/*! ' 9 1
-٥٨ -
! א
א
א9
א;
מא2(
6,א0
L04 0
80 L4 4 + ; ! 4 ! (*
. 9 5 9 (* ;% c1 L4 H
. I
*0 H0% 0' ! ; * MNbV 8 ! 8 L4 ;09 0 0' ; (1 9 & ( =! H% 91 +9
0 F0G 0 )0 /& 74 H% !9B A4 ' 9 ' H-0 9 .I5 9 7 !* H- 9 ) ( M)
. B
0' c01 L04 * C-! ! ( RPPS QMNOP ) +5 0 0. 2 0 0" 1 % G / 9G :(R)
<0! 91 +9 9 ' 1 ' c1 L4 + Q
. MNNM 8 (MP) 8 " (1 91 " FG . 91 +9 I9 <9& Q
. (& J9 & A9* 69 Q
$0/ +' (1 . +9 ' 8 L4 A9 +
!
0 70I 0& 7 +9 ' c1 L4 / * A +9 0 (0!4 0I - 7 H% . ' c1 L4 .
(9. 91 +9 / ' c1 L4 ' 8
;% B != ()!
c1 L4 J9 &( ) +9 ' !/ J % 8 L4 ! (MV) 8
. '
2 , H6H C , 7 # >7 1 4M : .//9 , 5 , )
1
. &( > , I , 7 C
, && , # 1 LB , # + [6 : &''' , 2C , )
2
. &.;)&.& > , I
-٥٩ -
(2005-1980) 5 1 1 ! J! >7 4M 1 1 C F + /.; / 2
J! 4M 1 C
4M 1 C
1 !
1 ! J! >7
>7 R4
R4
>7 R4
R4
>7 R4
R4
+ 1
1
+ 1
1
7.3
8.8
7.6
30.3
22.2
36.7
48
44.8
35.5
21.3
25.1
34.4
28.5
22.6
22.6
20.9
28.1
26.3
17.7
20.8
20.7
Rb,M
92.7
91.2
92.4
69.7
77.8
63.3
52
55.4
64.5
78.7
74.9
65.6
71.5
77.3
77.3
79.1
71.9
73.7
83
79.2
79.2
`V,N
26.8
21.4
15.7
25.3
21.5
26.7
42.6
46
53.4
62.6
61.9
62.4
65.4
61.3
69.4
74.7
80.6
75.7
78.4
76.6
76.6
`b,S
74.2
78.6
84.3
74.7
78.2
73.3
47.4
54
46.6
37.4
38.1
37.6
34.6
38.7
30.6
25.3
19.4
24.3
21.6
23.4
23.4
RV,S
3574350319641136262661566172+
8701+
292617172+
1991224619
21857
2686
221632356924475104667131376
9751397513
MOSPPbQ
4177
4228
2452
2712
5999
6688
10018
12408
16575
24541
28752
38300
34544
37031
31370
32684
34680
141881
172515
168661
168661
RaNNOa
603
725
488
1576
3373
5532
16190
21109
13649
7369
8840
13681
12687
10170
9207
9115
10205
37214
41139
71148
55004
baN`O
43188024717943741009787914024+
11661+
10364+
12714+
8761+
3063+
13563+
11363+
12287+
20345+
1979+
154577+
MSaS``+
177678+
154581+
MP`PPM+
11988
15553
13118
7997
21916
18352
13526
14526
14528
14637
14717
23074
18312
23354
13841
11041
26694
45654
47433
67093
55454
``PVS
7670
7529
5939
3623
11819
9561
17550
26189
24855
27351
26478
26137
31875
34717
34746
23348
28675
178976
202010
244770
210035
MOaPVb
1980
1981
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
RPPa
aN,O
SP,R
bb,V
VV,`
MRM`VaQ
VVVMPa
RMMV`P
aVbbS+
MbNRbS
RMRNVP
RPPS
MRb,Va
`V,`
SS,S
aa,S
aP`RRQ
b`NMR
R`MNP
VOPRR+
VP`PN
bO`VM
. E + F , (2005-1981) Z D : -٦٠ -
: (MV) (9 0=! U "0' () 91 +9 ' 6 8 , 84 ( 8 L4 QM
0!/ (/*0! 3510 MNOS 8 (%NR,a) MNOP 8 (%NR,`) 9& ' 6
0 (%SS,aQ%SR) %
(1 6
=! , (MNNP – MNNO) (1 A
. J
=! , 9& ' c1 L4 L5 & C / %
! +5 $%
(1 c1 L4 8 4' /% (1 (%aa,O Q %aO) 6
6
9 64 U ' & 9 +
9 D! +!/ /
L04 0 ,! 8" ;9 ' 3I' 74 81. & >
0" 0! 0' 6
! %& 5 6
4! H% 8? 351 & c1
3051 0 9 4! 6 L5 ) (MNNVQMNNP) (1 -5
0 )! ' 5/ H% . c1 (/*! 8 L4 8 (/*! 0 (``aP) !0 ' + (RMMPN) / MNNP 8 U " c1 L4
0& 0 +0 (a`ROR) 9G .51 U. (MNNV) 8 +
0 U0 0! 7 J!B H% (MNNV QMNNP) (1 + (VSVMO)
. 91 (%MS,`) 0 2 0 " C % c1 L4 ! B + & QR
: & A9 RPPa 8 (%`b,S) & MNOS 8
+0 C & +*G A A4 7 c1 L4 8 ( (M)
. " % !/ (/*! 351 69 0! 0 $0 ]0 ;%0 A ! c1 L4 1g 8 ( A ! + & / 69 & +*G A A % H% / + (`PQSS)
. . (MP) 8 " ! c1 L4 / + ;09 (0! 04 0I4 * I! ' "/ <9& 0' ' A9* / A * H%/ A4 .
(R)
7B
, H6H C # M L , 7 R4M MC : .//( , I ,C )1
.&&;> , I
. .'A > , W$ I P... +C 5 4 : &''K, , +
)2
-٦١ -
0! '0 -0 @0! 1 C @ ;% RPPS 8 MM` 8 4 (0 ! !9B A4! ( ' c1 L4 J? !9B
0' 0 & !9B ! - $%
8 . 0 + '0 0 /*! +%= 1 C > !9B ! 6!
(M)
. F1
0 04' ' c1 8 4 ! <& =! +0*! 6! 9 C ! c1 L4 MNNP 8 OSPR 8 4 .
(R)
- <9! 5! 6 @ 8" + & H% 9 !9B A4 8
0 ! A9 J -! 5 c1 L4 H% <. '
,0 MNNR + (4.05) D -! / 8 L4
. + (aV) 0 - +I A4 80 (MP) 80 "0 ! ' c1 L4 8? 6& QV
0 0 0' c1 L4 H*& +. & ' 9 $9 MNNM
Q %RP) 0! ]0 +0 9& ' 6
! & MNNP 80 (%ab) 6 5 ! +' (1 U !
U !%!% (%Rb
. 9& MNNN 8 (% 80.6) &
' $ A9 8
c1 L4 69 9 H
Qa
( V )
: -
/% ;09 C & 6! A4 +K! -! ( c1 L4 ) ; !9& &
•
0' +04 0 W 5/ "E !4 %M !! 7 ( ! ;
* ! D/ ! C/! 71 9
. 09 8
I1 / / 8- 8 351 35 A4 +& 8 7! & •
. ' A4 7' G 6
E ' - / J9 A4 - K! 84 •
0 % SP k! L& 6 J9 - $%
( 6/ 8 ( ' - %
- ( J A4 $ ! J ' - . 1E 4' ' , )ﺱ%د ا1%23ء اSb وة ا، ( ر وا<مS` ) اH1;ع ا2اآ ا ر ا^ور! و, ا: ٢٠٠٦ ، ﻡ;!س، I!GK - 1
. ٢٠٠٦ / ٦ / ٣٠ -٢٢ ﻡ، Hد راه1%2 اc2 لK
. &KA > , W$ I P .. +C 5 4 : &''K , ,+
)2
و%A3 ا2 اM ذC ﻡeX ، ٢٠٠٦ ، 1% أﻡم اU EA, 1%; ا2 ﺕ)<
إدةM ار%ﺱ3 ا- 3
www.Iqtissadya.com .
-٦٢ -
0& - ! AI.! 5 4 ()! + AI.! ) c! & •
30 1 44 3 c' A. %
44 ? A -
. -
J0 '0 & 9 ' c1 L4 ;9 <4!& ' $%
0 901 J0 351 " 7 %
! % ! 4! L4 %- 91
+09 4 351 8? ' ' 6I C. ' ! 6
"0 0' A0 0 8 L4 A9 (B ' c1 L4 + A 91
(b,M``)0& + (aMP) c1 L4 9 +9 ' 9 : & ! A9 H% ' J! ( RPPa QRPPM) ! (
M)
+ /-0 0 ' = 8 " % c1 L4 ' ! $%
8 . I%= ' " 1 (B DE 8 -9 ,
. 5/ !/B 84 (" + 1 -/ '. 4 WI0 30! 0- / - -9* C-! 1 ! +* & ' 1 6" + c1 L4 9* 4 > !9G
A!0 %01 +0!/ ]! 74 91 ' 6 . -B " c01 L4! . $%
/ 1 ' J? A 1 7 $/ ( ' +0!/ 0! 74 1 7 $/ ( ' +<5/ J9 (
& & -B ( > +9 351 8/! 91 ' +9 4! 6 1 6 ' 5.
' " ! + & (& ! += / 65/ L5 69&
. . 4" $%
0 ; 8 (1 ? c1 8 4 (/ (4 / 7! c1 L4 9G +4 C. 8 L4' - g 4 4! %&
. (E5 -.! 4 ' *E H% 4 +G 4 9/
0 "0 0 c01 L04 A9* -)* <9G 3! %1 U1E 8 (" ! 9 ' 6/* c1 L4 (" = & ( / 0 !/ ( ) ,! -/* 8 9 ' c1 L4
.
(R)
9 * ' c1 L4!
0 c1 8 4 ! L $9 C /
: ! /* (1
. E + F , &''* , D - 1
. 45C P ` + + , PC 6
: &''9 , 3 ,J
. www.alwatan.com
-٦٣ -
2
90
م3 ع9M
ص: ع9M
(%
)*ﻥ ﻡ &ردات اﻝ
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
20
03
01
20
99
97
19
19
19
95
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
19
80
0
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
80
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
19
85
م3 ع9M
ص: ع9M
(%
)*ﻥ ﺹدرات اﻝ
اﻝات
اﻝات
>7 4M 1 1 R ( 9 ) 2
(MNNP) 8 <"! 8 ' 8 L4 ! L5 ( S ) 8 (/* !
L04 0 +!/ ! ! ! %1B A c1 L4 6' 5 ,
80 (%Sa)0 60 9 ! RPPa 8 (%`V,N )& .51 8" . 5 8
A / -! */ & A9 %
. RPPa 8 (%RV,S) +MNNP
' c1 L4 /* <& ; * ' c4 !
. 0 "0 " 9 ' 91 +9 (9 ' ; * ! (1 %0
0- ' U!/ U ( ! 6& , (9 %
' c1 L4
L4 ( 8 A 5 " %& 8 L4 ( 8 4 644 (09 60. ;%0 B !/ (/*! (9 %
' c1 L4 > K' c1
:
-٦٤ -
&''9)./A') 5 ( 45C , 45C P ) 1 # >7 4M 3 / .K / 2
(
>7 R4M 3 C
R4M 3 C
R4M 3 C
R4M 3 C
%*45C %45C P >7
%45C %45C P
34.4
29.3
bP,O
7.3
7.6
V`
65.6
70.7
VN,R
92.7
92.4
bV
1980
1985
MNOO
`S,M
69.4
52.8
63.4
53.7
62.2
71
70.8
73.7
79.4
66.3
OP,b
aO
44.6
21.2
34.4
20.6
21
26.3
26.3
17.7
22.6
20.8
Rb,M
Ra,N
30.6
47.2
39.6
46.3
46.3
29
29.8
26.3
20.6
33.8
MN,a
SR
55.4
78.8
65.6
79.4
71.9
73.7
73.7
83
77.4
79.2
`V,N
MNON
1990
1992
1994
1995
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
RPPa
NM,M
aN,O
O,N
SP,R
RPPS
B
. E + F . (&''*)./A/ )5 7 1! J 1 : 45C 1 ! J! >7 R4M 1 *
0 8 L4 J 351 5 ! A 6 (Ma ) 8 (9 !
L04 ; 0! +' (1 - c1 L4 J + (!4 9G
+! c1 L4 5 ? c1
k0! 04'
(2005-1990) +05 $%0
(01 5 ? 8 L4 + L
U 0!4 (%3 )(0!4 ( %11.2 )+05 $%
(1 c1 L4 ; + (
. 8 L4
(01 0 0 91 +9 ' c1 8 4 7! 0!1 A /G $%
F ! H% c1 L4 +!1 !9 8 L4 + /&
. 7B ' 9 4 ' + 9 /
:9
א;
מא2(
6,א*
אאא+א−١−٢−٣
0 81 ! J (/
& L9 (1 " +' (1 8 % 8 L4 0 L04 %0
%0 / – U 4! ! / – $%
. 5 9! ! %
81
0 !/B ! c1 L4 ") ! !/B J
-٦٥ -
J ' 4 %
! (MS) 8 (9 . /- C
. 81 !
(&''9)./A' ) 5 >7 4M 7 4 F 45C P 1 C F / .9 / 2
7
%
4
6
"C
C
aP,`
SN,V
MPP
SO,V
bM,`
MPP
M`,a
OR,b
MPP
bN,`
VP,V
MPP
bN,`
VP,V
MPP
OO,`
MM,V
MPP
P,PO
NN,NN
MPP
Q
MPP
MPP
M,R
NO,O
MPP
R,V
N`,`
MPP
R,R
N`,O
MPP
V,N
Nb,M
MPP
a,R
NS,O
MPP
a,R
NS,O
MPP
R,S
N`,S
MPP
R,a
N`,b
MPP
MP,P
NS,N
aM
MPP
Nb,R
V,O
MPP
NS,R
a,O
MPP
NN,V
P,`
MPP
N`,R
R,O
MPP
NO,V
M,`
MPP
aN,`
SP,V
MPP
NR,b
`,a
MPP
Na,P
b,P
MPP
NM,S
O,S
MPP
NM,O
O,R
MPP
V,N
Nb,M
MPP
OO,N
MM,M
MPP
OO,a
MM,b
MPP
ON,S
MP,S
MPP
OV,N
Mb,M
MPP
`P,P
aO,`
SM,V
MPP
Rb,V
`V,`
MPP
RO,`
`M,V
MPP
VV,R
bb,O
MPP
R`,V
`R,`
MPP
MN,b
OP,a
MPP
M,S
NO,S
MPP
M,`
NO,V
MPP
`,R
NR,O
MPP
M,a
NO,b
MPP
P,SR
NN,S
MPP
NV,O
NN,SM
MPP
P,Na
NN,Pb
MPP
P,Na
NN,Pb
MPP
R,a
N`,b
MPP
R,R
N`,O
MPP
R,V
Ma,b
OS,a
MPP
RP,O
`N,R
MPP
RS
`S
MPP
SS,b
aa,a
MPP
bN,`
VP,V
MPP
OS,V
Ma,`
MPP
N,M
NP,N
MPP
S,`
Na,V
MPP
MN,S
OP,S
MPP
RP,P
OP,P
MPP
MO,V
OM,`
MPP
P,aN
Sb,S
MPP
VS,V
ba,`
MPP
Ra,`
`S,V
MPP
aM,V
SO,`
MPP
RM,b
`O,a
MPP
N,S
-٦٦ -
4
C
7
Oa,P
Mb
MPP
OP,R
MN,O
MPP
OP,R
MN,O
MPP
`R,`
R`,V
MPP
bb,N
VV,M
MPP
OM,`
MO,V
MPP
VR,M
b`,N
MPP
Va,b
bS,a
MPP
SP,O
aN,R
MPP
aS,P
SS,P
MPP
VV,N
bb,M
MPP
Sa,V
aS,`
MPP
SV,S
ab,S
MPP
NM,R
O,O
MPP
aN,N
SP,M
MPP
aN,N
SP,M
MPP
MV,S
NO,R
M,O
MPP
NO,a
M,b
MPP
N`,`
R,V
MPP
N`,`
R,V
MPP
NO,N
M,M
MPP
NO,`
M,V
MPP
O`,P
MV
MPP
O`,R
MR,O
MPP
O`,S
MR,S
MPP
OM,S
MO,S
MPP
OR,V
MR,`
MPP
ON,O
MP,R
MPP
NP,b
N,a
MPP
Oa,O
MS,R
MPP
ON,P
MM
MPP
O`,P
MV
MPP
`a,N
R4M
8
c1
L9
8
c1
L9
8
c1
L9
8
c1
L9
8
c1
L9
8
c1
L9
8
c1
L9
8
c1
L9
8
c1
L9
8
c1
L9
8
c1
L9
8
c1
L9
8
c1
L9
8
c1
L9
8
c1
L9
8
c1
L9
8
B
MNOP
MNOM
MNOR
MNOV
MNOa
MNOS
MNNS
MNNb
MNN`
MNNO
MNNN
RPPP
RPPM
RPPR
RPPV
RPPa
RPPS
NP,P
MPP
VP,P
MPP
N`,`
MPP
NP,S
MPP
Ob,S
MPP
RS,M
MPP
c1
L9
. E + F ( &''* – ./A. ) Z D J L 2 1 : : c1 / /MS/ 8 (9 8 (1 : 4 F 1 C )
(/*0 0- 60 / 4' 81 !/B J 8 L4 %
RPPa 8(%O`) & ! $%
.51 MNOV 8 ' 81 9& (% N`,`)
0' 6
0 / 4' C !/B J! c1 L4 ") !
$%0
3510 MNNb 8 (% Na,V ) & 5 MNOO 8 4' (% bS,a ) $%
8 - c1 L4 / ' !! RPPa 8 ' (% `O,a ) & !
@!0 ,! 8 H% ' + $%
!4 MNNR 8 (% VO) & .51 (% SM,` ) (/* MNOO
.(%`V,RR) ! - 6 =! , $%
!/B ! U 8 L4
: 7 F 1 )
B 0 0' c1 L4 ! )' /- !!
L4 / 4' 1. " 4 -9& J I%? J?B $%
L4 A 4 RPPa 8 (% N`,O ) & 5 MNOO 8 (% NM,b ) $%
' c1
(% OR,` ) 0! 6
/ , !/B J % ;% 8
RPPa 8 ' .51 8" ( MNN`) 8 (%Na) & 5 MNOO 8 $%- 9& . RPPa 8 (% OV,N ) &
% 6!* -)! / 7! ( ) !" (B 0!4 + $%
; (%MPP) ! MNNR 8 U " ' 6
=! ;% c1 L4
. 8 L4! " +' ' + / ! c1 L4 @ X95 (/*! U /
0 %0 c1 L4 9 c1 8 4 /- !! 7 ' : (Mb) 8 (9 6. %
MNNM 8 U<! !/B 84
-٦٧ -
&''9 )./A') 5 >7 4M 7 4 F 1 C F / .*/ 2
(
7
4
L
/-
C
81
bb,V
OR,b
SP,V
`M,S
bO,V
Ob,P
MPP
M`,a
aN,`
RO,S
VM,`
Ma,P
c1
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
L9
8
`M,b
OS,R
SN,N
bO,O
`b,b
ON,P
8
RO,a
Ma,O
aP,M
VM,R
RV,a
MM,P
c1
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
L9
OV,N
NP,M
Ob,a
`O,O
Ob,S
N`,M
8
Mb,M
N,N
MV,b
RM,R
MV,V
R,N
c1
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
L9
``,VO
Ob,O
OR,P
`M,N
`N,b
N`,`
8
RR,bR
MV,R
MO,P
RO,M
RP,a
R,V
c1
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
L9
`N,R
VS,S
aa,M
bV,N
OP,O
`N,b
8
RP,V
ba,S
SS,N
Vb,M
MN,R
RP,a
c1
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
L9
ba,V
SV,N
bS,M
a,b
NR,b
`R,a
8
VS,`
ab,M
Va,N
NS,a
`,a
R`,b
c1
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
L9
Sb,S
SR,N
Sa,a
aN,S
S`,b
SN,a
8
aV,R
aV,R
aR,a
SP,S
aR,a
aP,b
c1
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
L9
SP,a
aS,N
aR,N
aa,P
SP,O
aS,a
8
aN,b
Sa,M
S`,M
Sb,P
aN,R
Sa,b
c1
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
L9
aO,N
Va,P
MO,`
VV,N
aS,N
N,N
8
SM,M
bb,P
OM,V
bb,M
Sa,M
NP,M
c1
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
L9
aV,R
VV,M
RP,`
VV,S
VN,S
MS
8
Sb,O
bb,N
`N,V
bb,S
bP,S
bP,S
c1
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
L9
VP,b
aM,b
MN,V
VP,b
Rb,a
VO,O
8
bN,a
SO,a
OP,`
bN,a
`V,b
bM,R
c1
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
L9
VP,`
Mb,O
MM,`
Ma,P
RO,O
`,S
8
bN,V
OV,R
OO,V
Ob,P
`M,R
NR,S
c1
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
L9
V`,P
RR,a
MM,`
Ra,V
M`,a
MP,S
8
bV
``,b
OO,V
`N,`
OR,b
ON,S
c1
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
L9
V`,b
RS,`
RM,P
MO,V
Va,b
S,R
8
bR,a
`a,V
`N,P
OM,`
bS,a
Na,O
c1
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
L9
VV,S
RP,O
Ma,a
RV,N
VO,a
a,b
8
bb,S
`N,R
OS,b
`N,M
bM,b
NS,a
c1
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
L9
RR,N
RN,V
Ma,P
MS,b
Vb,a
V,`
8
``,M
`P,`
Ob,P
Oa,a
bV,b
Nb,V
c1
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
L9
RR,a
aM,O
`,b
N,`
SS,V
S,`
8
``,a
SO,R
NR,a
NP,V
aa,`
Na,V
c1
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
L9
-٦٨ -
B
MNOP
MNOM
MNOV
MNOS
MNOO
MNON
MNNP
MNNM
MNNa
MNNS
MNN`
MNNN
RPPP
RPPR
RPPV
RPPa
RPPS
+ F ( &''* )./A. ) Z D J L 2 1 : .E
: / Mb / 8 (9 ( 6& ! " C % 5 FG 1 ! 6& QM
(/*0! 801 9& & 81 8 L4 ! -9
0' (%V,`) A9! ! 8" MNNP 8 (% S`,b ) & MNOP 8 (% Ob ) 9
0 c01 L04 ' ( ;% 9 c1 L4 @ RPPa 8
70 0 ' %1 4 ! !/ & ") ;% 81 . -
80 L04 !/B 84 ( MNNPQMNOP ) +5 (1 9 /* 4 QR
MNOS 80 9 8 L4 /* %& +/% +5 (1
=! c1 L4 ' 4' (% MS) (!4 L9 ( M )( % SP ) =! c1 L4 ' (% Ra,` ) (!4 (% bS,S ) =! MNOO 8 -% ! $%
80 L4 (% SV ) " i 4! ( MNNPQMNOS ) +5 (1 U 804 0 c01 L4 @! " A9* ! . c1 L4 (%Rb )
0 c1 L4 /* 4' 9 !/B
%& 8 L4 ' - (!4 L9 (% a` ) MNNM 8 9 $%
U0 $9 %
4! 8 L4 ' (%Va ) c1 L4 ' (% SO ) MNNS 8 =!
M`,b) (0!4 c01 L4 ' RPPa 8 U!4 (% bN) & ! $%
4 '
0
(RPPa – MNNS) +05 (01 "" "/ ; . 8 L4 ' (%
c04 +
0 !. F1 ! c1 L4 8 9
" A9* ! 9 ' 8 L4
. 91 +9 <9&
0/E %0
60 9& 8B 84 A c1 L4 /* QV
0 8
H%/ . 91 7B 9G c1 L4 !/ 80 0 c01 L04 ! B + ' @. (/*! ( MP ) 8 "
(4 (I / >1 -9 H%/ -9 %
I- H-
-* 8 6K' c1 L4 " ' / + 8? 6 & . - U U /* 0/ $E)' (' (/*! (/* (! 8
8 +"/ * ( 6! ' U U
+09 0' 0 A ' ! + C51 ' 8
8 -' (
J U ! " 65/ L5 c1 L4 9& 351 & D/ (! 91
8 L4 %
& ;9 6 ' 9 L4 %
; FG 91
. E + F , , ./A* D )
-٦٩ -
1
c01 L04 80 8 L4 11! ! @! H%! 6 +& ' 6<5/ !"
0 C01 ' c1 L4' 4 ? +& @5
. $ ( 6)* C , + ( ' c1 L4
"# )א(
א2א8
0! 0 & $! ") ;% ;9 *E ! (/*! ' ")
0 0 A ( . ! ' !
0 0 & '.G! . ! ' 9 – 1 W! %5 -9 6' 8/ H- ! ) ' % 69 6" $ 9 ! %
-! " 4 (1 ' ' +!/ 9 ' " =. ; 91 L4 (01 ; ^ F1 G > L5 5 6 8? .(M) " (1 351 & 69 ;% !
C0. 0 89 ( -) ( 8 ' ' 9 6' H* (01 0 + -9 ;% (/*! (B DE 1 A 74 -
+0"/ ( 9 H% . (B 1 A - 8 $%
:
(R)
-! -9 C. J!! 91 8 & / A 3I' ' - C. QM
*0 L0 09 9G -9 ' C. ) 6 9 351 9G
04 A FG (9 ;% (/*! 9 C. - 8 4 / + A 3I5/ 74 4 , + A / '. 4 ' ! 91 A & J= ' I . 4 ( & FG 8" .51 +.! / -'
(0 0' (10 FG ! D5! B 9 91 J /
(01 B -9 ! ' (! & '.& ( !! & 4 0 0
(4 B $%
-9& + --9 -! ' /* 7B
L05 -0 F0G ' B 9 ( ( (I! 9& & H% ' (
74 B 81 4 (4 64' ;% 9/ 84 (5! 9G +<5/
, + 1 # 4 , 7 R4M MC : .//A , I , C )
1
. ;9 > , P , 1 , 447 . ٢٦٦ ص، ا^ردن، ز% و ا,H( ﺱ اراقi ﻡ، !د ا
و1%23ت ا2)ا: ٢٠٠٤، g!(M ، K f( - 2
-٧٠ -
0"! "E WI )* / 4 ( ' (9 6/ H% FG J ' + ' %/
9 $%
("! - ( 8 ' -
80 8 %& 1 ' - + & ;E ;% (/*! B 9 B
%0
6& ( / >" A. ! & A.1 6 ' B FG )!
04! 6 ' ! B FG ' -44 / + & ;E %
F
0 0- 0 (0 (9 %
1 ! ( -.5 4! +
0
0 04 ( 9 6' / ;% (/*! - B 9
0' (0 0
0/ -9& ' + > ! 9 ! 9
. B 9
(04 80" 0 0-9& +0 ! + "/ 4 ! (9 7! &
09G 04 $%
& + - + 9G - U -
-' ' ! A @. 9 ! (9 ;% B . 9 - ' %! 09 5/ 1 $%
' H% + 1 ' A ( + & QR
0 - /G C. 9 ( ' * ! /
0 0 1 $%
84 ' A / ;% (/*! *!
0- -04 '0 1 ) 1 1 !/ & (
8/! H% 1 $%
(" ""/ 75 (/*! 1 - ; !9B /*
0-9 0-' A0 ;%0 ' ( 1 - (9 C1 8 A ( (I + 8/! -' 74 ! ' 1 01 $%
- + ! 1 $%
-! + & ;E ;% 91
. -' (1 + ' H% 8-& (1 -. 4 & ;E 09 + ,! -' 9 !/ "4 ( D C. QV
! 5 -1 4 -1 351 " ( $%
J!! H% $%
-' " ( 1 (!4 89 ' + ? -9 %
'
04! ' 91 ( - ' " & ' (9 ."!? A. %
(" ' F1 & (B DE ! 84 A +.! -' H%
40 ,! F1 & -!- 8 - ] / (B DE 3! 1
0
! H% & 9 ! (B DE & 69 ! "I- H
. $ - C. (B DE +.! ;E +4 C. F1 (B DE &
0? +0 0 9 & C. , ' ' 9 85
-٧١ -
0 0 0 0 ' 9 1 ;9 ; +
0!! (0 0 (0 ' ' 9 /* ( & ;E %
0 (01 & 9! ;E ;% C1 C.! 8 -* L.B
.'
(0 0' 044 +0 !/ & 75 ( ' / + & Qa
74 44 %& . ' B ' (1 (0 $%
8 ' ()' %M - 4 ( B 5 (1%R 9 -'
89 %V 75 ( 8 ' / + ( ! "!4 -9 ' / 8 &
6 89 %
5 - ' ' 351
F01 8
6 =. $%
" 1! H- + . / =.
3051 0 %
( ' 8
! 351 8- = %! ( !0 0' L05 %
6 9 ? ! L5 A9 ' 9 !
01 6 (4 (1 FG H- J 6 9 G
0 (0 'B / & (9 ! <!B & '.& " !
0& .05 " 1 /& 6' (4 ;% (/*! A9 5 35
F0G 9 /- J !/ & A' H- 0 +4 C. 9 ( $%
-' ^ C1 ( ' J %
! 80 0 0 & +.! ;E %
' 9G -9 C. FG
'0 ' 9 + + & ;E $%
H- ! ! ' 91
0' ( 6 +=". 5 4 ( 8 . - 704 ( $%
' ' 9 / & ;E %
+.! (
(0 +0 ' ( - ( ( ' ' 3I' (/*! 9!
0/ ! ! J= ' -K' ' 9 & 4
. 6 9G -9 (5! ( :(١٩٨٩−١٩٨٠)א(
א)א2א8:١−٤−١
0 (MNONQMNOP) (1 (M`) 8 (9 ' ' !
: ' 91 ( +!/ +! +5 H ' A v "/ 4 & Q
U0 4 / U I9 H% ! 61 ' 3 (!4 ! (/*
0/- J/ - 1 ' / 9 K' 91 ! ") U . -٧٢ -
/ 4 . ' / 9 ;9 ' 9 & QJ
0 0 ' . 4 91 +9 ' ! 8
(/* 5 " I%= A H- + / / MNOM 8 5 6 + (B 5 4
.(M) J 8 ' A $%- FG 351 '
0 $%
/ U U.51 (!4 ! 9G - Q09
0 /' 12 4 ! 5 ( (! 4 8 ( (B I
. F1 ' : ' J !
(0 & H% MNOR 8 U! !- $9! / $%
& QM
F01 ' A9 & -9 8 8 U .' 8
(0 0' 1! F1 ' -' ! ' ; * > J!!
. " -9 5 !
A 9 <J C51 ' ( 8 ( J ;% !- 8? 6& QR
D0/ 04' MNON 80 (1 .' ' B !/ J9 1
80 (1 D 3I' 74 ;9 J ;9 ' !/ 3I5
B! 9G W %MR ( + Ra k! /%
. 9
0 0' ;0! (1 9 D/ ' ' 9 & +! QV
901 L04 0' * 9& & ( + 8 ' (" ;
0-9 0 . MNON 8 <"! %SP ( 4! & I !'
. 50 +0 c1 (/*! + A U!/ U J/ D/ >1
0 0' +0!/ 1 (/* ( K' 8 /
!0! (MNOb – MNOR) 0 ' U ' , $%
>& ' !
,
. 5 4 C0 !9B 9 ' !/ 351 & ' ' 9 & Qa
805! 09G 09 0' 351 %
7' !9B A4 ;/ .;9 ;/ ' 91 , C 1 I#G , +MC C 3 P- 1 # : ./A* , I# , )
.KK( > , 7 H6H C
-٧٣ -
1
: (1989-1980) 5 1 # 1M /.( 2
MNON
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
!
SN``O
22397.1
137766
7299.9
8165.9
7850.4
7939.7
8408.8
9322.5
8290.2
VbMRO
33012.3
22591.9
16636.9
17311.3
15781.2
16659.4
15869.1
18584.9
15738.1
RVbOP+
10615.2-
8815.3-
9337.1-
9195.3-
7930.8-
8719.7-
7460.3-
9262.4Q
7447.9Q
;9 Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
0.4
78.1
89
92.3
(! /* 45 I
aVbSQ
3347.3-
2227.1-
1364.3
1621.9-
1385.4-
1465.9-
1207.9-
1558.4-
1426-
*
RMVS
1372.8
767.2
264.0
178.4
23.1
36
92.4
22.4
85.7
>1 (4 45
RSVN
1595.5
832.2
343.5
171.5
34.3-
48.9
57.9-
76.8-
79.4
5 MaVaSQ
7289.5-
4405.1-
895.5-
484.1-
417.7-
545.3-
635.3-
72.2-
49.9
3 " 89 (1
1
Mbb`
887.5
275.2
176.7-
130.9-
287.7-
235.1
55.5-
90.7-
191.1
>1 (1 1
MRVaMQ
6781-
5318.5-
1829-
1887-
21.2.8-
1762.8-
1786.3
1686.47-
1568.4
1 MRNVb
1483.2
11109.2
7617
6868.4
6634.4
6988.3
7596.9
9639.3
6502.4
(!4 ! aaPS
8910
77191.1
5344.1
5330.7
5258.8
5388.3
5872
7799.4
5966.5
OSVM
5983.2
3390.1
2273.9
1538.1
1375.6
1600.1
1724.9
1839.9
535.9
1
RaRaa+
2503-
3024.6-
3549.1
4113.5-
3399.2
3494.2Q
1049.7-
1309.8
2513.9
;9 J SbNaQ
6068.0
1062.7
119.6
509.7
1157
672.8
11.7-
224.9-
126.1-
;4 ? ( D
NVbSQ
4936.2
2099.1
1013.7
529.2-
1240.1
782.9
752.2-
635.9-
(9B (
Vb`M
1131.8
1036.4
1105.3
1038.8
83.1-
110.1-
740.5
411
(9B RbNO
563.4-
230.4-
178.1-
76.4-
8801-
60.0-
74.9-
QbP,O
98.1
- )1
RMRaN
4128.4
2191.4-
1607.2-
378.3-
2348.4-
2885.6-
1130.-
1534.7-
2640.0-
/ . E + F , (2005-1981) Z D : -٧٤ -
:(١٩٩٩−١٩٩٠)
(א2א86:٢−٤−١
H%! U / +5 J? ' U .I' (9 ' / 0 A9*0 75G * FG + %1 8 <9G !
. 9 I / $!! (I '/!
: ( MO ) 8 (9 ' (MNNNQMNNP ) +5 ' ' !
9 ' MNNP 8 + aP 9 3I' & : ;9 Q
(0 %
> . + (R`) & ( MNNa 8 ' 74 ;9
0& ! 9 8 ,! 6 (/ = c1 L4 9 &
5 F& / + 8? 5 351 (% aP) 50 @! ! MNON 8 % (/*! .I' 74 8 L4 K' 34 . + 6 I ' B ! (
L05 & ' ' 9 A9 > / : (1 1 Q
50 /*0 0 ' + 89 (4 * 45 ' !/
50 ' J +. + L5 %
J/ 8?! !9B
(bM`N) 0 , (MNNa – MNNP) (1 D1 ! 5. %0
704 0 '. MNNa 8 + (ROS`S) & MNNP 8 + ( 3I5 / + MS "9 ( MNNO – MNNS ) +5 (1 .I' (/* J + (S,R QMMP) & , (MNN`QMNNb) '
+/%0 +05 0' =! !! 1 ' 8
B ! 5 J
!09& ! D/ 6 / ' + 351 ; & (M) !4 (%bS)
0.!4 "0 0I' 351 & 9 L5 J! 1 9& !/B <9 ! 8 9 ' -9 !9B 9 C 9
0 0' 0I5 +0 & 5 351 H! 4 -
(R)
. 91 34 1
0 / $%
(4 , MNNP 8 "! ( D / 9 Q
. MNNa 80 ' + (a,N) 4! 3I' & + MV,O $4 9
DE (01 0 (09B ( ( D / ;% & H% !0 0 MNNM 80 (MP) 8 " ! " 3= (B
0I -0 (/* ;% (9B ( D / J4 & '.G! 34
. ء1Kl اآيI%A ا، ( ١٩٩٩ – ١٩٩٦ ) امj ! ا رU1KL ا$ ا- 1
، ( ٢٠٠٠- ١٩٧٠ ) ة%D ل اL( اX اnﺕH اF( هS ﺱر وأM H ا !ﺱ ا: ٢٠٠٠ ، X ﻡ، ) - 2
. ٨٤ ص، +, ﻡ) دﻡ، oرا%رﺱ دآ
-٧٥ -
0 0 0 4 c1 8 4 (/ c4 9
. ( ' A I - J9! 3I0' & 351 MNNP 8 + ( ``ON )k!! .I' ;9 J (9 Q
c1 L4 351! ") MNNR 8 ' + MMNRS k!!
(MNNa –MNNV) (1 + ( MOSba QMaORP ) ' 9 & (4 8"
+05 (01 0 .0I' 704 6 & ' ( L5! ") J MR,b 00! 4! + (RM,S) 9 MNN` 8 ' 6% k! ( MNNNQMNNS)
0 0 (0/ ' + (a QV) & 351 MNNS 8 ' + .(MNNN QMNNb)
0 0! 901 A0. C. ; <B ' 8? ( / & 9G +4 7. & H% > 91 ! ") ;
0/ (01 L & >1B 81 A 3! 5 A 704 0 0! 0 c /- G / 3051 9 ! / J9 . 9 A C/ 9G 351 & > MNNO 8 (1 (/*! 85 ;% MNN` 8 1B A! U<! 5 . (%VS) "/)! 5 '0 0 0' / (MNNbQMNNS) ' / 3I' & +*G 9
F01 $9 4 8
<9 & ' ;4 -9 !9B 9
. !9B 9 ' ' A9 & > . (MNNOQMNN`) (1 5 351
-٧٦ -
( ./// – .//' ) Z 1 # 1M /.A/2
اﻟﺒﻴﺎن
اﳊﺴﺎب اﳉﺎري
اﻟﺴﻠﻊ واﳋﺪﻣﺎت
اﳌﲒان ﻟاﺘﺠﺎري
اﻟﺼﺎدرات
ﻗﻄﺎع ﻋﺎم
ﻧﻔﻂ
ﻏﲑﻩ
ﻗﻄﺎع ﺧﺎص
الاﺳـﺘﲑادات
ﻗﻄﺎع ﻋﺎم
ﻧﻔﻂ
ﻏﲑﻩ
ﻗﻄﺎع ﺧﺎص
ﺻﺎﰲ اﳋﺪﻣﺎت
اﳌﻮارد اﳋﺪﻣﻴﺔ
ﻧﻘﻞ وﴮﻦ
اﻟﺴـﻴﺎﺣﺔ واﻟﺴﻔﺮ
ﺧﺪﻣﺎت ﺣﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ
ﺧﺪﻣﺎت أﺧﺮى
ﻟاﻨﻔﻘﺎت اﳋﺪﻣﻴﺔ
اﻟﺸﺤﻦ واﻟﻨﻘﻞ
اﻟﺴـﻴﺎﺣﺔ واﻟﺴﻔﺮ
ﺧﺪﻣﺎت ﺣﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ
ﺧﺪﻣﺎت أﺧﺮى
ﲢﻮﻳﻼت ﺑﺪون ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ
ﻣﲒان اﳊﺴﺎب اﳌﺎﱄ واﻟﺮأاﺳﲈﱄ
ﺻﺎﰲ اﳋﻄﺄ واﻟﺴﻬﻮ
اﳌﲒان اﻟﳫﻲ
ﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﴫف اﳌﺴـﺘﺨﺪم ﰲ
ﻟاﺘﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﻟدلوﻻر
1990
37789
28656
40435+
80252+
44683
36824
8759
35569
39817
21685119720488181321177917746
4248
6179
2588
3862
-29525
7975480836697729133
138452414
26358
1991
41417
9619
27010+
85675+
54600
45753
8847
31075
5866227611139526216310511739428135
6106
10217
4959
5258
-4552
1293563805233102231798
4211495932247
1992
11925
168154493+
87606
69011
60957
4054
18595
8311331368325028118517452130839988
7348
18821
5539
6359
-61296
179457913539845228740
5963
5285
23173
1993
1482029429820696282
71092
28276
12806
25190
10448840340459935741641482122248437
8567
22786
6613
8056
-69649
21794
9018604266214609
30150
4088
19418
1994
185643948139014112448
77372
65736
11636
47106
151462
58278255355725931841249763449
11271
28575
8353
11753
-75946
261559647672972920917
40940
3646
26022
1995
12636
10295
4923132831
98883
86041
12842
33948
-137754
-48650
-1515
-47135
-89105
15218
68137
8160
46067
9193
4717
-52919
-52919
-12146
-6163
-2858
20899
31262
-2376
28887
1996
13171
234913233163569
123323
107584
15738
40246
-176801
-70548
-3484
67064
-106253
10884
71762
9592
47215
9866
5090
-60828
-60878
-20084
-6930
-2623
24430
34804
3837
28641
1997
21677
25537
20376
182078
141148
112604
28544
40931
-161703
-54080
-7001
-47079
-107622
5161
71988
9604
46451
10681
5251
-66826
-66826
-24460
-8393
-3994
22395
25402
-5251
20151
1998
2897
6972
-8445
153929
104141
79297
24845
49787
-162374
-43846
-7021
-36825
-11527
15417
88135
10851
58429
11980
6874
-72717
-72717
-28478
-9034
-4223
25679
21850
-5646
16203
١٩٩٩
٤٩٣٢
١٢٤٥٢
١٠٥٤٧+
١٨٥٨٤٧
١٢٧٥٩٣
١١٤٣٦٠
١٣٢٣٣
٥٨٢٥٤
١٧٥٣٠٠٤٨٠٩٨٥٠٢٩٤٣٠٦٨٦٧٣٩
١٢٧٢٠٢١٩٠٤
٨٠٦١٨
١١٧١٩
٥٠٣٤٤
١١٥٢٤
٧٨٧١٤٣٣٦٤٤٣٠٨١٢٩٥٧١٤٦٨٨٢٣٨٧٨
١٢٣٥٤
٤٦٣٩١٢٦٤٧
19.31
24.92
28.26
30.06
33.15
34.43
39.15
44.88
49.10
٤٨.٨٣
. 447 1 – + " :
-٧٧ -
:(٢٠٠٥−٢٠٠٠)א(
?(אמ2א8:٣−٤−١
(1 + +! U.I' (9 ' / ( MN ) 8 (9 !0 <9G 9 ;9 ' +!/ 3I5 9 RPPVQRPPP ;09 ! ;9 ' 9 9 +9 A4 & ' +%1
. 3I5 9 , ' A. ' I (
0 + (OOab) $ U9 (9 4' RPPa 8 ' ' / : B H% . 8 D5 ;9 644 ;% 9 9
. A9 %
= '.& (& 8 8 U 9 c! ! 5 G QM
-* ! ' 91 +9 ( ; ! QR
0 0 D/ ' ! + A 4! ' U +
. > ' 3I' & ( ;% J4 > ' 9 ' ;9
. + ' ;9 (! 7B @' & QV
F01 & 6 ( 5 + / U!/ U<9 ! ! %1 %& Qa
+ <9G %1 .4 %
' !9B 5 /* c/
.+95 $%
= ! 5 ? 09 = (bPP) 6 RPPV 8 =! 5/ L5 QS
0 (NPS) (RPa) 0! RPPa 8 ' + $%
!
(M)
. + & B "4' RPPS 8
'
3I05 %0
0/ ( RPPa – RPPP ) 8B (1 .I' (9 ;9 J & Q
0 3I05 %0
89 + (`PORP) & , RPPR 8 ' (MNbRSV ) =! 5 L5 9 ;9 D A0 0 0 + ( MbONNa ) (!4 + (%OQ) !0! 1 ' 4 >1B 9 ' ( % VR ) !! (RPPR – RPPM) ! (% M,SQ % SQ) !! 9 (1 ' 4
(RPPa – RPPR) ! ( % `) !! 9 ' L9 A5 4' (!4! . 8 ' + ( V`PbRP ) & RPPR 8 + ( VaSVSO ) H%
+0 (% M,S) 0=! !! + - ( ") 9 RPPa
0& 0 !0! (10 + H%/ (% M,R) 4 !! 1 '
www.Aliqtissad C P $7Y # + P- J VC : &''* , C , +
)
news sy/epublisher /user/inde.htm
-٧٨ -
1
01 04! 04 A ! 5 /* & + k! + 9 (%RP)
. 5 L5 J!!
$4 ( RPPM – RPPP ) ' .I' 1 ' (9 (1 1 Q
0! 01 0 ' + ! & H% + (MRNN )
+05 0' 1 ' 5 ' ( % M ) =! ( RPPM QRPPP ) 0 45 1 ' + ' ( % M,S ) J4 & -%
0 ' 9 & ( 3I5 %
& . I (/*! ( % V,V ) !! 5
(4 * ' L5 & 1 ' 9 %
> / (RPPa QRPPR)
+ 89 + ( VPRbaQ RbSS`Q ) =! (MPVRO) 0 50 0 ' 351 !9B 5 /* ' ; 0 H% RPPa 8 + (VSNR) & RPPR 8 ' + . 1 ! D/ 6 / ' 351
351 9 H% ( RPPa – RPPP) 8 ' 9 (1 09 C0 <4 .!4 I5 L5 (M)
( % N ) ! F1 ' (
(%R) & !! !9B 9 ' ' 9 ( % R ) & !! !9B
/0* & + k! 9' J9 ' !9B 9 ' ' 9
0' $ 8 ( % RO,b ) !! RPPR 8 (1 1 4 J9! ' 5
05 ;%0 0 81 5 5 /* H (" RPPP 8
(R)
. RPPR 8 ' D (/*! $
+ (Ma`Mb ) k! 9 ( RPPa – RPPP ) 8 ' 9
Q
' ' = %
89 + (MNN`) & 9 %
351 RPPP 8 (9B 3 / : - +"E ( J
+0 0 (MMPRV ) (0 ! 91 34 ' 351 (9 5 F1
0 + (٣)
(VVbS) & 34 H ' + A 4! RPPa 8 . RPPa 8 ' F1 & 34 ! RPPM 8
. ٢٠٣ ص،
رHAﺱL ا، !)ﻡ$ ا
ار ا، !ت ا
وM
ﻡ!ان ا، !دت ا
و1%23 ا: ٢٠٠٤ ، K
اG ي، K أ- 1
) ﻡ، رة$% آ(! ا، <ر ا)! ا ر$( !ت ا
وM
ل ﻡ!ان اK تRK ﻡ: ٢٠٠٤ ، K
اG ي، K أ- 2
. ٢٢٣ ص، W! ﺵ
. www.ALIqtissad.com : و%A3 ا2ذ ﻡ اCﻡ، ﺱرM H ا !ﺱ ا، ٢٠٠٥ ، X ﻡ، ) - 3
-٧٩ -
1 6 ( &''9 – &''' ) Z 1 # 1M /.// 2
RPPS
RPPa
RPPV
RPPR
RPPM
RPPP
!
MSOVR
MObaP
V`PP`
`PORP
SSPOO
SPbOa
;9 J QM
RM`SV
RVOba
aRM`V+
NR`Sa
bNORR
bNSPb
1 A – `VNaQ
SNaPQ
bSSaO+
MPObOO+
bOSRV+
b`N``+
;9 Q
MRPNNQ
MVSMNa+
M`VbMV+
M``VaV
MbNOMb+
MaMO``
8 L4
bVRO`Q
aMMVSQ
MPOPbSQ
bObSSQ
MPMRNVQ
`VNPPQ
c1 L4
RbaV
RNOPa+
RVV`SQ
MSNVaQ
MRNN+
MSRN+
1 Q
RVa`Q
VNSRaQ
VPRbaQ
RbSS`Q
RRRVMQ
RMbVNQ
(4 * 45
R`SaN+
RbOVa+
VSNR+
MPVRO+
RPRMP+
MN`RN
5 MRVb+
RS`O+
VPSM+
MN`+
`RR+
NSb
/ 1
MMaS+
O`b+
Rab+
NO+
RSNO+
RaOa
>1 1
aSbMOQ
V`OaaQ
aRM`RQ
aSaNMQ
`Vb`NQ
aMNNPQ
(1 QJ
bSOV+
SOVO+
SRM`+
aNMO+
b`Vb+
`RMa
( .
S`SMRQ
a`b`bQ
a`VONQ
SPaPNQ
aaaMSQ
aNRPVQ
" I
VNbN`
VRbRM+
V`PPb+
RVSS`+
RV`RV+
RVMbO+
9 Q09
RPPM`+
MNN`Q
SOP`Q
MMVMMQ
MMRbPQ
MS`MbQ
J QR
MRbaaQ
MbOSM+
aMOV+
`O`PQ
RRMbQ
NMRaQ
- )1 ' QV
RVRPS+
MOOabQ
VSROR+
SPbVN+
aRSNP+
RSOaa+
/ SR,Ma
SM,RM
aN,RP
aN,MO
aO,MR
a`,``
(4" C . ء1Kl اآيI%Aا، ( ٢٠٠٦-٢٠٠١) امj !U1KL ا$
ر ا1ا
-٨٠ -
+09 0 0' U. U /
U 1 -* 91 +9 (4 / 7! :' 1 H / (;9 ) 1 9& %bS (5 ) (" , (/
(1
•
.
80 0 c1 L4 $9 9 A $! (/
(1
•
(/*0 0 09& %`S
c1 L4 (" .
.(RPPSQMNNR) +05 (1 9& %S` A 01 50! .; FG (/
$%
! L5 ' J! / !
U - ' I- H- A ' / ;% FG (/
0 0 B ' - " ( (G" 9 L! 9
0-9& 0 '0 8 J!! H% (( 9& %RN,S) A
.; Fe !! ' 4 * C.
0!) 8 ( 4! ! ;9 A 7' %& '=9 +9 (/
(1
•
.+4 ? + G 4 <9G 4 ! (! ( -'
.- B ! !/ 8 9G +4 C. !!
) ' 6t* <! 6 ;9 * ' !/ /* c1 L4 (9 ]'& 8? 0! A4 ? U 71 H% & 8 L4 4 +! - FG 0 A04 % 3! F U A
.0' 0 70B ' 3 351 U 9 3! 5 H% 9
C0-! 0 0 81. ' (! J - & '.& .9 (! 0 0I 5 51 A +!/ / A (
. 9 & < /
0 9 U*E & H% 9 3I5 ! ] ; ;9 ' J%!% /
0' 0 9 (1 8? 91 +9 69 7I ! .91 7B
J!! 3I' 74! (RPPaQMNOS) + > ' A 8? 5 351 K' ( ') 9 J9 0 3051 -)0* ((4 9G %5 & $9 J!!) (!4 '
.0 A ; ( ;% ' A / 9 A 3051 J!0! c0 & 9 + $9 *E (' H% U .'
-٨١ -
0? 70B) (0 D0 7B ! 4' J!! F1! .F1 & ' +9 !9B " /* + A (
70 @' :(1 - + '/ / <9G 9 %1 ! H%
& /- ! = 8 ' + & ! + ( +9
7' -5 4 (4 ( U -I! F& ( A
.; 91 L4 9
-٨٢ -
!
$ %&' (# )*+
אא:א%א=<1
#;!-א"
.!
$
):א@?>א,אB&<.6א1
A#א"
,A&<Aא=<-A
אא *+
אC7א .!
$D7E
אא7GH0I6
:+א,א1
#א"
,6F6א=< .!-
אא7א
:56א<K$א=<-א
508אJ4א"
) .
-٨٣ -
! $ %&' (# )*+ +09 L0. ") 4 ; * (9 ' +!/ 91 +9 L (
L0 ; -" 8 91 +9 ( ,! & (1 8
! 91
0' 091 +9 6! ;% !/ D/ 8
( ; * 1g
. -! ' ! (/* 4 ' ( +
' I (1 ' 91 +9 6 ;% -
. 40 (0! A0. 0& ' ! ( /' 91 + !
.. (10 0B (=* > 9G ! 91 L4 D/
0! A! 4 L5! 91 +9 L / %& "g
C
B -E -- C1 >1B 4 1 ' 65I L4 %
;0 0 ! (1 -44 ! H K' -! 3- - .4 . = H ] !9B 4 4! +4! U4" U !
0 +05 (01 ; -* * + <4& ! !
]0G 704 0/& 5/ ; 69 91 1 C
. $%
<. ' J ;
:\ 1 + 4 :c %
0 50 -' 84 U ! +4! ; A
0 ' ! 9G W / ' ; * ' !
.9 ;/ 1 J %
0 A ! (/* 9 -! (RPPPQMNOP) 8 + 0& " (I ! 1 ' ! U M,S 91 0& > 0 0!9B 4 A9 " C ' ! VPP %
. -? / 9G 6! ' 9 / G ' /
1 -
-1 351 3 ' 1 c4 ' " " C ' +* ! MNOO 80 (%RO,b) 0 k0! 5 81. MNOb 8 %S & 9G W (
.
(M)
IG J
.٢٩ ص،o ذآ+G ﻡ ﺱ،...
ةUDت ا3
)ف وﻡ1 أﺱ)ر ا:١٩٩٥ ، أآم،راK 1
-٨٤ -
(M)
: ! * 4 - " % G /
0/ 0 0 091 +9 9 (1 c1 L4 8 (9 ]'& QM
.8 L4 (! +/
0 0 c4! C 8 (!4 + C 351 QR
.U 1 C
"0 0 ]05 0 / 4 351! 91 +9 I9 QV
.MNNM 8 (MP) 8 " 4 U4' *! !9B
. (& J9 & A9* $9 Qa
.B 9 A' QS
" -9 , .; * ' A9 G $%
9 /
04' (/*0 MNNP 80 0- > & MNOb 8 U! c 8 L4
80 (%`P) !0 0=! H% ! ! - & .MNOS 8 6" (%V`,S)
W0 & " ! L5 & > .(R) MNOS 8 6" MNN` 8 (%O`) MNNb
0' c1 L4 / MNNa 8 (%RV,`) & MNNP 8 (%Mb,S) 9G .9 B!
(V)
MNNR 8 (%bM) & MNOS 8 (%SR) 9G W
74 " 4 B !9 5 & 7' $ +/% G (.5!
0 W0 ( L5 ' " (B C ' !9& WI ; M,S 0 ! 4 & 6! A9 ;% ! %` & 9G
(%RR) (0! 5 , @4 4 & '.& .(a) ' R &
09 351 * <! ' %` C ( k! / .+5 D5
80 D50 (%R) & 81. ( MNN` 8 (%a,b) & 9G W !/ .(S)
,0 0/ +
+1B ' ; 4' 7! & '.&
MNNN MNNO MNN` 80Y (%R,OQ %M,SQ %M,NQ) k! 9G W ( .!" MNNR )! .٢١٢ ص،+, دﻡ،) ا6) اM !اآ%ﺵ3ث وا
راﺱت اX^ ﻡآ ا، ﺱرM دي1%23ﺹح اL ا:٢٠٠٠ ،E!G ،A ﺱ-1
.١ ص،o ذآ+G ﻡ ﺱ....!( ا
اMHت اG(;% ﻡ ﻡf!A%( H1 ا;ع اE!هC ﺕ:١٩٩٩ ،
،رH
اG -2
t!H%ل اtK ة,t tbbد ا1t%23ء اtSb
وة اt Ft
م إt ﻡetX ،t)
ت اtXد ا ري وﺕ1%23 ا:٢٠٠٠ ، ن، ﺱ(!ن-3
.١٢ ص،+,د دﻡ1%23 )! ا)(م ا، ﺱرM !%3د وا1%23ا
.٤٣ ص،+, دﻡ،د1%23 )! ا)(م ا،د1%23ء اSb وة ا، ﺱرM !H1% ﺱ!ﺱت ا:٢٠٠٣ ،
X ﻡ، ﺱق-4
.١٢ ص،o ذآ+G ﻡ ﺱ....،)
ت اXد ا ري وﺕ1%23 ا:٢٠٠٠ ، ن، ﺱ(!ن-5
-٨٥ -
+0! 1 9G L4 ' " C. & W ' 351 %
A9
MNOS 8 W (%VO,V) 351 , !/ 351 " ( 69 , I
+0 0 (OM) 0& MNOS 8 + (MSN) 4/ MNNb 8 (%RS,O) &
0 0 8? & '.&
(R)
(M)
MNNb 8 + (MSR) & A5 8" MNON 8 MNNb 8 (%MS,S) & MNOS 8 4 (1 !/ (%MP,N) 1G (
0' 65 8 c1 1 U & A9 ; ' / K' 7!
. ! ' (E. ;4 L4
0 0 <09G 9 %1 & RPPP 8 ! ' -9
; ' & ( ; ;G E ; ]G & ' C
0 (0! 0! .9 +<5/ ! 74 ' W
]0 /9 5 +9 4 * 9 & "
' ( & 7Y 7 & ) /* 1 C K!
0'/ 0 <5& /9 8 351 & '.G! ;4 8 ]&
; * ' c1 L4 + & G H '
(V)
JI. 8
80? 0*! 0!9B " ]5 A9* 69 91 +9 I9
0 0 / " I! ' 8 & '.G! .11 !
;0 /- ! = 8 L4 ]& * > 9
. ' & 5 ! C :(a) -
cI1 9! ; "" 5B ! A
0 (0 ' % & ( / " "/ & F 8 6 Q
.+* '! B ! " !/ (/*! $ C Q
F0G %RS 9 ) '. 4 ! A .(S) ( W %SP (")
.( 9& (
.(H* – – c1 – 8) D 8I Q
!))! ا$ ا،!(!! وا
و2Lت ا3X%د وا1%23?!ات ا% اEv M ا رH1 اEG% ﻡ:٢٠٠٠ ،!H ﻡ،uX ا-1
.١٥ ص، اهة،د1%23ث اXG(
.١٢ ص،+ ا ا-2
N!;" ﺕx! ه،دي1%23 ا2 وة ااFر ا
م إb%ﺱ3رة ا"ر! وا$% ﺕ ا:٢٠٠٥ ، <د،w
اG) ا،(G ﺵ،"M أ-3
. www.All450uria.org و%A3 ا2ذ ﻡ اC ﻡ،+, دﻡ،د1%23ث اXG
ى ا%H ﻡ،!! ا^وروD ا،!ا
و
،د1%23ء اSb وة اF ﻡ
م إeX ،!;ﺱ%اآ ا^ورو! ا,ت اG(;% ﻡ،د ا ري1%23 ا:٢٠٠٢ ، ﻡ;!س،I!GK -4
.٢ ص،د1%23)! ا)(م ا
.(٢٠٠٦-٢٠٠٠) امj !U1KL ا$ ا-5
-٨٦ -
0. 4 4 +1B ' 69 !" / C. Q
.MNNO 8 (MSR) & MNNS 8 (MSO) G <9& ' <! L4 + 9 !9B " !%9 C. Q
. +9 & 8. 8
.( MRPP 9 ) ; 5 (1 > Q
.I A! % += E !? (
/*) (B /* J? Q
*0 04 0 +' (1 (U %VR) L5 / ( $9 Q
J0 %RP) L5 ! ( $9 (RPPS 8 %R,a & ( %
351)
k0! L05 9 $9 ( <G J %MM <G 3!
A05 0/ .(RPPb 8 IG 9) RPPS 8 9G W %MV 8 (%S) & ( A RPPS 8 (%a,b) & MNN` 8 (%R) 81. (
.(M) RPPO
5 & (B $! ! U! ; & +*G 9
A0 0 0! & 5 ! , !9B / 0/ MNNS 80 U (! C (bPP) & MNOb 8 U (! C (MNa) FG 89 L5
05B 0! A A9 %1 5 F& & .(R) ! U (! C RSP - H-
A09 U0 (U 0 (0! C RSP - ) RPPS 8 U (! C aSP k! ""
80 (%`S) 0 9& !/ 5 89 A9 & > .6 (R,VM) 4! MNNb 8 -% 5 I =! .(V) RPPS 8 (%aR,M) & RPPP
.MNN` 8 (R) & I $%
.51 5 351 A 80 0 (M,a`O) 0& MNNP 8 (VPP) 6& 4' L =! L5 ' G $%
.(a) (MNNbQMNNP) +5 (1 %VM,V (! MNNb
.(S) RPPS 8 R,R
*0 H0 0' I9 ]G ]9 9G W ' ( L5 D/
0/ 0 0-5 0 G <! & . (B C ' ;
" C ' A9 & > 5 351 & '.& ;
!Aﺱ;! وإﻡ% ا-!رآ ا^ورو,ر اz إM د ا^وروXﺕ3دي ! ﺱر وا1%23)ون ا% اEG% ﻡ:٢٠٠٧ ،6b! ه،D) - 1
.٩٢ص، اهة،W ﻡ) ! ﺵ،رة$%رات آ(! ا,H ﻡ،!)رب ){ ا
ول ا$ ﺕFﺵرة إL ﻡ ا،<Hدة ﻡD%ﺱ3 ا6!RHﺕ
.٩٢ ص،+ ا اWD -2
(٢٠٠٦ ،٢٠٠١) امj !U1KL ا$ ا- 3
.٢١ صo ذآ+G ﻡ ﺱ،... ا رH1 اEG% ﻡ:٢٠٠٠ ،!H ﻡ،uX ا-4
.٢٠٠٦ ا ر مK! ﺹدر وزارة ا% ًM و-5
-٨٧ -
*0 04 ! A
(M)
(%a) (%M) ! ] ( ( MNNN 8 ' ! U 6?!
.; --9 ( ' (* ; ]G & 9 D/ :+ \ 1 )cCH
6 & .$ +/% *E 3! ' (" + 4 ; 6! A 8?
0 8 L4 + 9 !4 $ 6I U! "E + 91 1 69
; ]e * J? ! (/* - W +5 ; *
.* 4 4 ! A 8 -* G = & '.&
:7 1 )%
+0 <0! 0" * 4 +1B 4 ' 9& ; 644 8?
0 0
9 (/*0 9 ( 6 & 9 ! & :-
0" (B C ' 91 ;% 8 ? QM
.* 4 +1B ' 69 (I % 5 & - / & $4' c1 L4 89 = C. 8 L 9 QR
." 9/ +G J?
.5/ L5 9G & > ' 8 U4I C4 8! A QV
c01 8 4 ( / E I! ' 8 Qa
.= A -5/
(0 7 & c1* C (RPP) ! A' / A 4' ! QS
.45 ' U 04 0' ' W 7B ' ' +4 9G C. Qb
.9/ . ' 6!/ 8 4 ' 1 ' L4 C. Q`
89 %VP "/ 5 ? = ,) 5 ! +4 C. QO
.(
:7 1 )F
.+, دﻡ،ء1Kl اآيI%A ا،(٢٠٠٦-٢٠٠٠) امj !U1KL ا$ ا-1
-٨٨ -
(/*0 +0 6*- & ;E / 91 9 ; 69
' +4 + (1 --9 C"/ A (/*! ( 8 8 %& .- : ! -9& / 91 1 7B ' < .; 0 +9 8I4 9 ; 8 & ' QM
. +9 & 8. ! 74 +. ( ! (B DE /
+. ' - ! WI Q!B /* ! + +9 4 QR
.; ' +4 ,
0 !0 0
"g -9 ; ]e (* W! ! $ +/% &
.; * ( ' 74 ; :(.) # + [6 UC D )c HH
J9 & J ' ; ]G W! 6& ;% / ; 74 &
/ 3 + +. 4 & / J +& W- 81
0I! 0& c01 8 4 (/ ' 9G -9 /
+& (1 1 ]9 C-! 9G 4 !4 '/ ( *
( 351 81. ( 8 44 ; ( 74 ' " I -'
w! '
0 0" & '.& .+" (1 A ' 351 !
(5 %
/ +5 74 "g J C-! /% 7! = A (5
.! "g :MC J ).
;0 A0. A J ! ; 1 ' A. J9 4 &
<0 0& '- ; ]G D !. ! 81. J0 %
.9 --! 84 / 8 ' 74 + 81.
: + A* ]& ! & ' ;" ;G 75G 351 +.
.
(R)
•
!.
. 9/ 4 8 ( c' 71 ' !. ' 81
•
. (1 /- 8 -& + ' W +.
•
1
- Sukaar, Nabil, Syria, 2001: Strategic Economic issues, work shop vision for Middle East, North
Africs, Gammarth, Tunisia, 9-11 Junc, 2004, p.11
2
- Hussein. M.EL-Amach, possible Interaction between the budget, Tax reform in Syria, Economic
Research forum for the Arab Countries, Iran, Turkey, Cairo, 1999, pp7-15
-٨٩ -
J0 30 2 U4' -/ +I5 ; ;. ' 4 (9 ' . I I5 ' +&
:
X
5 )&
: 7' ; ( 8 * I! (1 .+9 1 * 4 '/ * 9 <9&
•
0E /
+& & '.& 7 ' D' / A +9 * A.
•
.1 9G
./9 8 (/
J •
+.0 $0"g 6 / / ' ; ]G $%1) ;% $9 (4 / 7! <9e 4 9 ! A. %
9 .8 (/*! 9 > A0 .g I9 9 D * ]& (1 9G ! +& 4!
J0 / 6 ? (! .; <=& ; +
W0! 0 ; * ! & ; * +& %
= +<5/ A' / J +& (1 / ; ; 4 74 & ]G
"0 J%09 (09B ( " 5 x & A ; <B
. 3 + H% ' $<K! 6-9 *! !9B
-٩٠ -
א
א0@א
0 0' 91 +9 L / L5! – - – ! C
0 0 & I (/*! H% ' J! 91 7B ! F0G & ; *B 4 C1 ! /!* C. FG >4
0-9 /- J ! 89 ' ! 9 9 ! /& . ! 7 91 7B! ! +! -91 9 >1
:,א+
+
*01
א
א−١−١−٢
%0
J FG FG! U !9& U ! ") ( L +9
0 / * & ;E H% (/ 91 1 7B ' ( ) FG
+09 *0 0' 0
+%5 " 89 & '.G! ;9 * (5 0
") ' B -
) L' C1 ' 91 +9 "E %& . 91
: (1 (١)
:7 9 %5 + ).
70B 0' 0 FG 3I5 C 9 !9B ( Q
. B FG (I k! ' 91
. A ' 9 9 FG ' 51 FG / QJ
0' 0! @ ;% 3I5 ' @ ' ;9 9 351 )&
. ; <! . 91 7B ' 4 4 4 ) );
0 /9 JI. 8 1 91 +9 L -! ' )K
H9 & : H ! 3! >E H '
– 04 0 0 8– 5 J! I – 91 +9 8 – <G 8 –
") >1B JI. 8 J9 & H% ! X' &
!0. /0 !. A! 8 9 C - !./ . / I#G P , 34 # $6 Y# , 7 4 : 1995 , : LS ,6% )
. 15 > I , C 447 , >7 2C , 34
-٩١ -
1
. ' LB 4 ! (9
M (&''9)./AA) 5 267 C # M 4/ &' / 2
RPPS
RPPa
2003
2002
2001
1998
1997
1994
1992
1988
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
1000
1000
600
400
OP
!
!.
4 (1 !.
MMaPPP
MMRVPP
105000
94800
4645
70854
40722
20350
16400
C -
8303
9
Q
MPP
100
100
100
90
75
55
62.0
100
/ !.
RPP
RPP
170
140
200
190
190
150
55
55
(/ !.
Q
MVVS
1100
1050
1100
650
800
500
300
285
RPbPa
MOOMb
15375
10800
12500
11500
10100
5190
2500
1500
/9 8
MSPP
RSPV
2300
2400
2500
2200
2100
1000
900
375
<G 8
OPP
MRSR
1200
1200
1200
1200
1100
500
500
175
bSPP
SSPP
4800
4500
4200
3200
3000
2000
1100
1000
A! 8
OPP
MVSN
1000
1300
1250
850
85-
731
350
70
4 8
Q
Q
Q
Q
420
300
25-
97.6
20
75
5 I
NVRa
ObPP
SRSS
VaMb
VP`b
OOR
NON
MMaV
NOS
R`V
E (1G
MRSNb
MMMVM
NRVR
SOS`
Sa`a
VMRN
RRbR
RbOS
Oab
Ra`
+&
!.
k!
+9 8
91
9&
MbSSRa
MSP`OP
MVOR`
MRSSbV
`Oa`P
bbPaS
bVaVO
VSPSM,b
RaaMO
MRSVO
91 +9
A+/%
8 L9
abPPPP
aaNSPP
420000
356389
322000
237300
211125
144162
93042.470
51545
B4
VS,N
VV,S
VM,a
35.2
Ra,V
27.8
30
24.3
26
24.3
% B ÷A
. E + F , 25/5 2 (&''*)./AA) Z D : 0 (% 24.3 )04! 0 1 ' 91 +9 L ( RP ) 8 (9 1997 80 (%VP) 0& !0 $%0
A05 1988 80 ' 4 9&
0- ' U U J 91 +9 ( %
2005 8 (% VS,N )
9 B! 9G W ' -
(1 ' 91 + 9 . (2005 – 1998 ) ' 8 -9 !"
-٩٢ -
, I4 +! D/ ! H* H0 A.1 LB / %& U1 U $%
. - c1B 8
. 9 ? 45 (G 7 ;4 81. + 351 )9
$0 ( (/ J 4 -! ( 91 +9 D/ (10! 0 % + ( ! ! %1E ! L4 %-! 1 U U !
C0
Y '.& H% - (/ J/ / ( c1 8 ) H- 89)/ 4
0!9B 0 0 0- (/ ! >1B 4 C1 ' ! 9G
.
: H &''' Y UC # 7 3 ). – .).)&
W0 0& ! -!/ (1 ; 4 ' 91 +9 4 /
: (9 6. %
9G ( &''9)./A') 5 H 2000 Y UC # + R4M ! /&./ 2
%3/2
%3/1
UC
(;) P 1 1 (&)17
(.) 17 P
B
45.3
RV,S
16.3
MP,`
450657
`ONVM
204172
MOSRP
73509
OaO`
1980
MNOM
MN,V
MM
OPbPb
MSbPS
ONVa
MNOR
MO,O
MM,V
OM`SO
MSVNV
NRbV
MNOV
MN,a
41.6
45.8
40.6
38.8
36.3
31.7
29.7
26
30
29.2
31.4
32.5
29.7
Vb,S
MM,V
15.7
27.9
27
31.1
29.9
30.9
33.8
31.08
36.1
36.1
39.5
42.8
30.6
VV,S
`OaRN
515986
510549
659196
706745
756404
830726
872461
931660
898552
903944
934669
964574
1004348
MPVOaRM
MSRPO
214597
233627
267382
274405
274264
263123
258843
242417
270366
263868
293637
313547
298302
V`O`NS
OO`S
80790
142633
178467
220063
22596
256358
295155
296637
325171
326715
369564
412464
307712
VaOS`N
MNOa
1985
1990
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
RPPa
a`,b
VR,S
MMSSVOb
SSPRRa
V`SaMV
RPPS
. E + F , (2006-2003) Z D : . H ./A9 Y (./AK – ./A. ) Z C
:( RM ) 8 (9 -٩٣ -
+ /73509/ 9G W & 1 A L5 QM
W (33.5) ( ; 20048 + (348579) & 1980 8
/ L 8? 6 & .MNOP 8 (% Mb,V)/ ! 9G
+0 5.6 4! " ! ' 6 / ! 4 +/% 8 (1 - 5. 0' C. ! %
!4 A ( ( 4 K'
A A -9 5. +. ;% B Fe +4 /- J/
. 9G +4
1980 8 ( % 45.3) 9G W & 1 A ! A9 QR
9G -/
! -' (1 ! U ! ! $%
! 2004 8 (%Vb,S) &
0' (0 0
0/ c1 (/*! /- A J -9 ' 6
70B 0 (0 $%0
U ! "E Fe +4 C. K' J0 ;%0 0B 9G /- 9 A 8 ' 91
U 0! /- > !4 . A ' F1 69
09G +4 A IG * ! ' ' --9 04 8
<& ; (/
<! +& ! 4 '
. A 9
(01 !" RPPP )! 9G W c ! B " Q
+05 (01 0 0! 0 (0 01 A 75G L5
: 9 ( RPPS – MNNP )
A0 0 0 09G W ! ; ! %
R=0.89 ! (
. 1
: (/* %1) !" RPPP )! 9G W 4 &
Y = a + bX
Y% = −43.725 + 0.392X
. !" RPPP )! (" y : ,
. !" RPPP )! 9G W : x
. ' >1B ( " :a
. !" B! 9G W ' = ")! ' = 4 : b
. 4! (a , b) !" J!
09G 0 W0 6 x, y ! ! A 7' !9 a !" +*& &
. P,VNR 4! 89 K' + + 4!
: , ! ( (9 ! F !1 81 ! !1
-٩٤ -
A0 0 0 0!" 0B! 9G W ! 9 H0 : 8 .'
.1
. /% ! 9 : H1 : ! .5
&''9 ).//') 5 267 17 P 1 J UC C 2 ( && ) 2
(
1
O 1
R
J!!
SSR = ∑ ( ~y i − y i ) 2
J!!
<1B
L9
1
4
52615.57079
SSE = ∑ ( y i − ~
yi ) 2
SSR
1
= 52615.57079
SSE
S yx2 =
n −2
= 1687.982
M SX =
M
n-2=8
13503.85662
SST=6619.42738
F̂ C
f ~ M
F = 2SX
SY . X
F1−α
F = 31.2
F(0.05,1,8)
n-1=9
~
F>F
. y, x ! +9 9 6)! W ! .5 (!4 8 .' 3' %
. 6 4" (9 9& t !1 *E 81! 84 !1
0/ %K0' : β , α 044 A9 1 4 ! b,a 4 &
(١)
X = 84! E! ' Y = / 6K' I& 5 C1 β ≠ 0
: 8 .' 35 K' !
H0 :β = 0
: ! .5
H1 : β ≠ 0
: ( 81 .5 $%
!1
~ b−β
t =
sb
0 A09 ! (" ;% sb & α >! n-2 9! t A A.1 : !
sb =
S
∑ (x
i
2
y. x
− x)2
= 0.114
3!
~ b − β 0.392 − 0
t =
=
= 3.44
sb
0.114
( n-2 =10-2=8) 9! P,S > 9 t J
K/( > , , , 1C , M4 : &''9 , ,N
,3! ,
)
1
.
-٩٥ -
α = 0.05 ⇒
α
2
= 0.025 ⇒ 1 −
α
2
= 0.975
t (0.975.8) = 2.306
t% > t (.975.8) : 9 !
~
t ,t
1−
α
! 4!
2
044 0 (0 W0 H1 ! .5 (!4 H0 8 .' 3' K' !
. Y = 84! E! ' x = 8 / 5 C1 IG A9
: -' 4" (9 I B = P [b − t
α
(1− , n − 2)
2
.sb ≤ β ≤ b + t
α
(1− , n − 2)
2
.sb ] = 1 − α
I B = P [.392 − 2.306 .0.114 ≤ β ≤ .392 + 20306 . .114] = 0.95
I B = [0.129116 ≤ β ≤ 0.654884]
0 0 75G K' + 4! 9G W 6 %
9G W c D/! + ( bSaOOa) 4! C 1 A
. + (MRNMMb) 4! c C 1 A 75G K' 4 D5!
SSR
. *0 (/*0 09 4' (" 1 %
R 2 =
= 0.81 : ( &
SST
(١)
A! : 81 X (4 = y W = !9 9 '
X
E X = y (′X )
y
0 = B / "! y , x ! B ! $%
J! 84
( ٢)
E X = b1
4 (/
X
909.8507
= 0.392.
= 1.12
y
3113.0848
W0 ) X ( = %& 6 %
A! K' 1 < E X ( y ) ; !/ !
(01 A0 ) y A! K' % M 4! ( !" RPPP )! 9G . !9 B $9 D5! % M,MR 4! = C
: B UC # 7 R4 3 )&).).)&
0 ;0 0 ' 7 U9 ( 91 +9 L &
;09 ' 9 H% ( 1987 8 % !9B C 8 7! 8?
0 F0 3051 6& > ;9 < ! ! !"
.A;> ,C ,1 ,
,M4 M :&''9 ,I , )
1
1 4 F , 1- d , &''; , Y NMC , , % , , )
2
. &K. . &&' > , F 1C , -٩٦ -
W0 & 91 +9 ! J/ (RV) 8 (9 @.. 7 ' ;
. (2005-1980) +5 (1 9 B! 9G -٩٧ -
267 B UC J! 1 1 C F/&;/ 2
(2005-1980) 5
1 C
J! 1 C
UC J!
UC
VM,b
Mb,M
MO,S
UC
1 1 51270
16185
8273
1980
`,b
84225
15570
6427
1985
MP,`
S,R
99933
10709
5199
1986
RM,N
MR
127212
27915
15192
1987
MV,O
O,V
181868
25040
15093
1988
MM,V
Mb,R
208892
23544
33740
1989
MP,P
M`,b
268326
26936
47282
1990
MM,b
MR,a
311564
31066
38504
1991
MR,b
N,a
370631
39178
34720
1992
MM,R
O,S
413755
46469
35318
1993
MR,R
`,N
501610
61374
39818
1994
N,V
`,O
570975
52856
44562
1995
MP,P
`,V
610857
60385
44887
1996
b,P
S,N
745569
45211
43953
1997
S,S
a,M
790444
43724
32443
1998
S,V
a,`
819092
43010
38880
1999
RP,N
Ra,M
896634
187535
216190
2000
RV,V
RS,b
947808
220744
243179
2001
RV,b
VM,b
999451
235754
315919
2002
RV,a
Rb,a
1009918
236768
265039
2003
RO,V
RM,S
MMSbbPN
327019
249014
2004
V`,N
VR,P
MVRabPb
SPRVbN
aRaVPP
RPPS
B B
. E + F , (2006-1989) Z D : 0+ 0 0) 0 091 +09 351 (RV) 8 (9 %0
& 1999 80 (% 10)0& 1980 8( % 47.7 ) 9G W ( +
$%
& 6! 8 7B ' ; F (" A9
E! 9 & 351 & 4! 9G (/- ' ! =! ! 8
0 %0
;9 9 8/ 8 81. . 91 7B ' ; F C. /E
-٩٨ -
0 W0 09& 0& ( !)91 +9 89 351 %&
0! (0" 04 (0 3! H-' F1 ! 9 c1 U '/ y (" 9G
0 W0 & 91 +9 89 L5! - /B + /&
(M)
. (" ( ' -5 J! J!B 51 J!B / 9G
.09 B! 9G W c ! B U
0 9 J & ! (1& (2005-1990) +5 (1 ! (
: 0B! 09G 0 W0 ! ; ! %
r = 0.87
: ! ( Q
. 9
: (/* 84 ! (" / 6 ! (1 y = bX + a
y% = −205.721 + 0.447 X
. (" y :,
. 9 B! 9G W x
. ' >1B ( " a
. 9 B! 9G W ' = ")! 89 ' = 4 b
. 4! (a , b) $%
!" J!
4! 9G W 6 x, y ! ! A 7' !9 a !" +*& &
. P,aa` 4! 89 K' + +
: , ! ( (9 ! F !1 81 ! !1
. 9 B! 9G W ! 9 : H0: 8 .'
. /% ! 9 : H1 : ! .5
(&''9).//') 5 267 UC 1 6
7 2( &K ) 2
I5 1
R
n
! L9
∑ (Yi − Y )
2
1
= ∑ y i2 = 209329.7513
i =1
n −1 = 9
I5 1
4
∑y
2
i
n −1
= 23258.86126
C 2 H6H C , #O 1 1 23 : .//' , C , N )
1
. . >, 7 -٩٩ -
5 !
* <1
(5 ? !)
∑ (Y
*
−Y ) 2 = ∑ y i* = 158164.4354
∑
M
2
∑ (Yi − Y * ) 2 = ∑ u i* = 51165.31587
2
y i*
2
= 158164
1
∑u
n-2
*2
i
n−2
. 4354
= 6395.664484
: 9 F J!
~
F=
∑y
∑u
*2
i
*2
i
=
158164.4354
= 25
6395.664484
: 9 % NS 4" 9! v 2 = 8 , v 1 = 1 9 !4 9 F A -4!
F (1.8) = 5.32
~
L0 0! 0 0 09 6 (! 35! (!4 ! F !/ 5 F &
. % S > (9 9 B! 9G W : β 44 ( 4" (9 9K! 84 4! E!
Ι β = Ρ[0.447 − 2.306(0.089) ≤ β ≤ 0.447 + 2.306(0.089)] = 0.95
[0.241766 ≤ β ≤ 0.652234]
0/ 0 9 B! 9G W ! ! H
WI $%
@.
0 ( L5 , IG !1 +9 ".' (b ) y i = ( -.
0' 0 0= 0%`b 0 , F% 5 +4 ! ;% (R2=0.76)
H%0/ b !9 +*G ".' 9G W > ' = 5 04! 09G W + E ( x ) = b
X
γ
= 2 W !! +4 (
!9 ! 9G W !! '%R + & ;E @ +0 @. / @ W ! "" ; @. "! 0!/ (/*0! F1 ]5 & +*G ".' +5 (1 + +!/
. ( 3=
0' ; * FG > + (1 "E 4 (1 c4 + &
+0 05/ 3051 & ;E ' 74 & ;E A 7 FG /& / 4 (1 + . ' +4 9 351
0' 5! FG 89 351 $ 4 (1 351 / 89 + & ;E
A 91 8 ( & 89 (4 ! & 69 9 89 6' ! . >1B !"
-١٠٠ -
0 0 +0 + & ;E H% K' 4 (1 A5 / 6 9' !! D0 & 69 A5 (1 9 A 9 5/ 8 ' 75G
0 I5 8 / A & '.G! 4 H- L 0!9B A -/- + I5 $%
J / (1 9 8 ' /-
/ + & + A H- -' 69 ( 8 ' +
. -.51! 351 !9B 9 <* +
$%0
0/ <0 c4 + 4 (1 c4 + ! H
D " A 3=! 8 9 3 ' c4 / . FG $? 4 9/ 0! -0 A05 (1 9 8 8? & . U H
9 3! '
0 (0 (092 <*0 ' (" L D H% / B -9
. (1 84 92 34 84 $%
(" ' !9 C 34
: -.51 5' H% 4 (1 8 ' !4 "E 1g J9 . 8 c1 " (/ c 1 A (5 J 351 QM
. 91 8 1 A 6& F -4 c4 QR
*0 %05 ! ! (/* 71 & 8 ' + !4 ;E QV
04" 80 0 09 701 & ;E !4 H% & C. . "
0 809G 0& 80-! ;E " > I 8 & 4
(١)
. 1 ( ' 8-!? (4 3! ' "
& ;E 75G ' +' 4 (1 + & ;E ' + & (4 /
c04 0 0' H% D/ . " * ' %
/ 1 A J
. " A 89 75G (4 (1 ^/ F @ , VC 5 C : .//* , , H )
, )
. &;' > C , -١٠١ -
1
!
(
א6
א
אC
62+
+אאABא
D@אEא
0! 0! 0 0 )9 ! / %& '
0 (0 0 09& & ! L5' ! %
0 ! L5 ( ' U4 "/ ( L 0 (0 C01 0 ! L5 B / 91 ( ") . "/ + . (// ! 7 ;% >! ! ! ' J/
:(א8אC
6
א
א−١−٢−٢
0 0' 6! ;% (1 / ' 9! +9 0-B I%0= B 74 ' 8- 9 91 +9 )* %& 0' 40 704 0' FG ' 9 ( 9 = & ;E
")0 B (/* 9! 91 +9 / B
0 c01 3I' - H- 89 FG 89 %K' FG !
60 ) 8 !9B A4 69 ) U L4 / / 6K' !
609 0 0!9& +0 D/ ;9 6 / 9 3I5 7 . ' ! 84 B $%
U 91
0& ' ! ;9 ! (9
: 9&
-١٠٢ -
1 1 C F + 2 /&9/ 2
(&''9)./A')5 267
1
1 C
1 C
+ 1
1 ! J!
1 ! J!
% %
15.7
8.5
7.4
17.7
12.3
6.1
6.4
7.4
5.6
5.1
6.7
7.0
7.0
9.4
2.2
7.2
8.7
`,P
2.3
2.3
6.6
12.4
10
11.6
18.6
15.4
15.4
16.5
21.8
25.6
19.4
12.3
11.4
15.6
13.5
Ma,V
150211894492556
1312+
1621+
3599+
2729+
3893+
4342+
6569+
5242+
4494+
7981+
11561+
32347+
15138+
MRaaR+
2540
1332
790
4429
3319
2399
2987
4572
2944
3077
3018
3051
3051
18574
16049
16937
20643
RVPOO
1882
143
344
1873
4631
4020
6586
7301
6837
7419
9587
8293
7545
26555
27610
49284
35781
VSSVP
1980
1985
1986
1988
1990
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
RPPa
S,R
Ma,V
MRMOb+
RRPNa
VaROP
RPPS
B
. E + F ,(2006-1981) Z D J 1 : : @. (RS) 8 (9 +< / !' " +' (1 9 ' / 9 91 (! ' & QM
04 0 C @! 8 ( U<9 ' L
0 + (1502 ) 1980 8 9 91 (! ' 9 (
8 ; ! 4 ' L 1988 8 + ( 2556 )
0! 0 0! L4 %
' 74 35 '
09 0!/ 0 ; L C1 9 %
D/ / B 9! L5 / ! +") L4 "/ 5 H-
+0' (01 0 0 09& & ! 9 H% 5 (1
!0 A (١) 1980 8 ( %2.3) 4! .51 +' ' -! A 4 "
: & A9 %
J! 4! 8 D5 ( % 15.7) . 7 1!,./// % # , E + F-
-١٠٣ -
1
-)* / + 9 H- + FG / A9 . 1 9 3I5 (4
.1 91 >1B 4 ' FG + 0 A09 0 & C +9- 89 ! ! 351 (M)
.1989 8 (% 12.3 )& 1980 8( %14) .B
0' (%30.75) 1 1 ' L4 1 " ! A9 0 = ].! D/ 1 1 ' (% 16.95) & "" 1
( ٢)
. 9 ; 84! ! C
'
+05 (01 0 ! ' L5 351 4' / + 89 J = I%= 9 9 H% +/%
+0 0! H-0 F0G ! +95 L & > H-
. -0.5 0 /9 4 9 7B ' A 351 <y 0 0 --9 ' & '.& + ( 3!
. 4 !1 C. J9 & ! 0 FG C/ L5 91 C 9 8 7B 7. . +5 H ' FG ' !4 /* 05 ! ") . MNOP 8( %bP ) "/ ( 5 ; ) /* 0 0!" 0) C 7 B ' %1 8 0!" 4'
(٣)
( 9 ;!9G (
60 ! & FG A9 & " (1 ( +0& & " 1 ' / A' ! +1 "t! % I%= 9 +9'
. ( ' H% 74 8 2005 8 +' ' 3I' & ;9 ( QR
(0 J0?B FG ' + 74 / <9& L!K!
. E + F , ( 1989 ) 1980 ) D )
1
. 7 HH 7 447 – 447 D3 – = D )
2
, H6H C , # I 1 R4M : .//* , C , )
3
. .K > , I , -١٠٤ -
0 (0 J? ( ! & ! .3I' & J! ' / ! <9G 9 +! / FG $-* ;% &
0 !0! -.051 /9 <5G 8 / ( 3G : <9G $%
FG : ) .).)&)&
$9! FG & > +1B (1 U U ' FG -* 4
U0!/ U 0
J %
9 8 3I' ' A % <5/ 74
0 ' /) 8 4' H% L4 ' 3I5 $%
C 91 7 '
A9*0 C-! .
(١)
( 9 ! C/ ) A9* 91 +9
: ' / MNOb 8 % ' "/ 8 . 9 ! c1 8 4 ] ..1 6 % 100-75 !! 5! c1 L4 ] * 1 5 ' 5 ! & 6/5 .1 ; <5& (٢)
. A4 ! & 8- (% 20)0 ! (٣)
. F 4 8 <=K! .4 1999 8 /7/ 8 4 E & 6 $%! 4 FG !. <=& (٤)
. 9 : ) &).)&)&
. FG C-! H% 4! " +' ' J09! 80 / , c1 L4 7! 7 +4 <9G 8
/ z 0 C0 0! (% 70) & (% 10) 4 E ! I -
(M)
. (/ + (5.45)
, 447 1 M C , # 447 1 )
1
447 D3 – .////;/&&).K I
. www.syrianconomy.org , #O 1 1 23 : .//. ,C , N )
2
. 165> , I , # C 1 : 2000 : , )
3
, 34 HG .//9 – ./(' # Y : &''' , C , )
4
. &&* , 2B , .* ,I
-١٠٥ -
+0!/ -0 84! / 19878 %' H% ! "2 3! <9G $%- / 0 0 - FG ! 84! 4 C1 A 605! H0% 6/ c1 L4 ( A ) - 1 / . I%= A
(٢)
: -
<9G 9 1987 ! % / / <=& 8 H%!
-0 70 0 B ! c1 L4 ] . C 4 5 E ) * +5 U 180 + I
c01 L04 0 0 4 $%
/ A! . 8 L4 U/ / A !
.1992 8 (I % U ( ; A4 <*! (/ ] 0 051 -0 84! 4 @4 F& %1 8 <9G &
%0
09& +0 0& 9*0 )! 8- <* -' ! FG + 8-9*
Ra Q % RP ) !0! *0 @4 8 L4 + !
(٣)
c1 (/*! 0 0 9& + ' 8
;% B 6 L9 (%
0 ' (% MV) / ! ( MNNO QMNN` ) ( % RS,b Q % RM,O) !!
. 4!
!0 0' @0. A9 & +1B (1 FG + 4' ! &
(٤)
: 4 ! $%
(* 2004 8 (% 14.3) & ( . !2 3! J. & 1999 8 U I9 4 ! C59 9 0? i.0 0!# I*0 5 9 '9 $ 1 51 $ ' c4 0 J ] ! @. 9 ! '9 $ J 351 W! . -' ; $
8 * ? (/*! ! 81 > %& I ! 0& , C & - ' - A 8< - / +5
0 0/ 0 4! ' 1 ? / ' 8
I 4 # 3H% # 1 : .//; ,
, )
1
. ..)A > , I , \5 -7 1 C 4 4M C # 1M% - , 2
Ellis Frank – "Agricultural Policies in Development countries, , Syria )" cambridge, Cambridge
University press, Cambridge.
. 9A > , W$ I , # I C3 , G O C ) 3
.www.Alwatan.com P $7Y : I J! R4M 2MC6 )
-١٠٦ -
4
0 0/ 0 810! ( '/ 9G + ' U 4!
. % (I! ,! 1
L04 A0 D0/ ;%0 ' A & (4 / 7! 09 0I%= +095 c04 & > ! +' (1 U U -* W0 ' L4 + ' 8
3I' & ( ;9
. 9G +. & L4 91 +9 L ! ;4 ! %
K' !
70B 0! 804 +. 9 3I' A A ,! – 0 +09 ,0 ' + 9 $%
@! 9 C 91
$%0
0 0! 0/ <9G 9 44 !9 8? 6& %& . 5/
3I0' L. 9 .4 %
. !9e 4' ! 9 8 F <9G
$ 3I' - , . - ! /* @! ;% FG
7B ' 8 A FG (/ J - 8 7 7. J!! C
. $ 91
:
א
(א
א−٢−٢−٢
AI.0! 0 1B %
64 (1 91 +9 L L ! @.
70 + B B ( -9 g ) /
J0 ; K' H%. -& 7 91 %' 7B & 6 ! 0 +0*! ? +*! +! D/ 6 6 ' (1 ; 91 +9 L
(0" 0 A 5/. D/! ( > g (/*! L
: (Rb) 8 (9 6. %
4 L9 8- J9
-١٠٧ -
1 1 ! J! C 1 1 C C + /&*/ 2
B ( &''9)./A') 5 267 + C 1
C 1
C
M
! C
1 ! 1
% %
48433301247661544689
4567+
7069+
2167126731662721829146002072912103129301286942818599274938752460O`VSSQ
40.4
34.5
43.4
42.4
44.5
32.6
35.5
35.2
46.2
47.9
50.2
46
44.6
42.3
40.8
37.8
37.1
37.1
43
40.6
aV,b
6334
5375
4652
11831
11138
7671
9569
10955
18093
22303
30827
24324
26932
19033
18489
17536
70928
92409
101401
96031
MaRb`M
MVbNOSQ
SV,a
RbORbS
C
M
B
20.4
32.3
41.8
V`,a
42.7
36.4
37
22.8
15.6
16
22.6
21.8
13.8
15.7
17.1
12
13
13.4
16.5
16.4
RR,R
1691
2074
2176
5677
6449
12286
16638
8788
5420
5676
8998
9724
6203
6930
5559
4667
28110
32482
52014
43571
SSVMb
1980
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
RPPa
Ra,V
MPRa`b
RPPS
.E + F, (2006- 1981) Z D : : ( Rb) 8 (9 0 <"0! 0 +05 (1 9 - 91 (! & QM
+5 $! / ;% ;9 ' 3I' -' 74 , ( MNNP – MNON)
70 < ' 5 ( & + 9
0 0 / 4 . + ( ` Q a) 3I5 =! %& .4
t* 8 9* 91 +9 <9& ' (MP ) 8 "
9& & ! L5 ' " (! +!/
! $%
L5 & MNNa 8 (% SP,R) & MNNP 8 (% VS,S) 0 ( & 9& ! 351 (!4
F01 C A 9 69& ' ;
-١٠٨ -
0 (% V`,MQ %V`,O) 0& (RPPM – RPPP) ' -9 & % aP (/*!
. ! $%
351 & ; / & (/*! & 01 -.0 0 C
B (1 4 ' -& -9 8? QR
(0 0-9 ( & / (I! W- 7! 1
A9*0 - !9B A4 ' + 89 c4 (5/ !0 +0 / 8 9 $%
9 . < 0 0 0 9 4' (G 0 /%0 J!B 9 & %
> RPPS 8 (% Ra,V) & MNNP 8 (%V`)
:-
C !9B A4 )! ! 91 +9 & t* < /& ( & '.G! L4 8 4 !
8/ & I C1 . c1 8 L4 ( 4' I4
0 8?0 0 5 1 91 ' 8 ( ' -/*
80 0 80 L4 +& I4 & 4 A ' ! G /*
01 044 0' 0* H0 0 6/ (9 6& & !
(١)
.91
0 0 0= J! ! / 8 (/*! (٢)
:&
0 09 0 D /- 9 / 7! •
0' / A9* / ! $%
4 8 D/ ! /-
A9* ! 1 7 ' 9 2 (
. 91 7B & (! '/!
E (1 w 1 + 9 J? •
. ! ; (/* *
.4 $%
-! <9G ! -/ " %1 •
7' *! ' H% D/ 8
9/ +4 <! < 8 •
*0 +0!1 ! ' /! ,! 8 ' 9
. . www.Alalam.ekt.com P $7Y , C R4M [6!: &''K , , e )
1
, , H6H C , C P : &''K,# , % )
2
. ;9 > , I
-١٠٩ -
C0 09& 0 0 J0 09 80 %& ( / 6!* J? •
; ( RPPS 8 ( % a ) RPPR 8 - (% R,a)'
. ( ' 1 6I $ 60 >9 ! 84 , " (! ! 8
8 •
L05 (=*0 0 3051 !/ & 5 ! 7 ' . C/
09 E & (
& H% ' ! * / J? •
. 91 W ! 5 ( (/* ! 1
. ( 7 +9 ) 7B ' ' •
(0/ 0- *' %& ( (G ! " 1 7 69 L!& •
. ! C. (! c4 8 ' 74 ) / !9 J!0! 9G - (/ (= c1 8 4 ' A & '.G!
D' " + A H
J 89 - 7 $%-' 7 ' 7 C.
.W !B ' , / - 9G "/ H-' 7 ' A
(! ; ! ' ! = , 8 1 & (4 / 7! 0 70 0 0 0! * %
+ F& 1 I (/*!
80 0 0 & { I L4 ( 5 L ) (B L4 4! 0& C-! . + F& 1 I (/*! (! ! (/ ! 74
04 80 +0*! 91 " J4 (9 69 ' C4 !4
!0 0 60-9 A *! (/*! C
(١)
" (B E"
. 4 + 4 /* -.5 9/ (4 ! -" 9G +4 4 9 %1 ! %-
4 & FG B <9& (- (9 %
' -!1 +5
7B & 1 7B ' AI.! A ' +4 ! - .5
. 4 ' 91
5 CY 6 1M ! S J! " , 2B C @ , C 4 2 )
1M 2 CB H + C `C + fC # # C 2
16 2 # 3 , #C Y 15 UC C \3@ #
C4 XC CY >7 R4M MM 4! # C4 C X
. www.Iqtissadiya.com : P $7Y , &''9 / 9 / .A # @ M , C C
-١١٠ -
1
0* 0 0-9 / +. 35 91 +9 ; (4 / (9B I- /- 9 1 + >4 -9 (%! & + 35 8 & . !" (B + 9 =
!0. 69 J9 . ' +& FG
0 / 1 89 351 & ;E "/ " 6 FG C/
. 89 + & ;E ; FG
8? FG FG ' " * ! H%/
$%
D5 ! 84 c1 L4 9 H% A /- ' 3I' 644
0 -/- + J + " 9 351 & H% ;E
: (9 6. %
. $%
' 3I' 74 U 4! /% / 8?
"% &''9 # X
( &( ) 2
!
`MNRaS
NVRSRNS
).
MaaNSa
MVNbVN
9
MOOa`a
RMPNV
!
`MSaR
RPMNVP
7'
R`aMP
RPRNM
9%!
S`aMP
RNPNP
.
MM`bRP
bbOOR
4 %!
MOSMO`
ROMPO
4 %! RaPS`N
RbVS`
$!
Ma`RaNR
Q
bRbRM``
RaRPVMR
bNRbNNS
Q
/ /
MbRONObO
MRR`ONN`
L9
. E + F , &''* D : (0!4 ' 9 "! !/ .I' 44 3! H
7! (9 !
0 0 . "/! 75 5 ")! 8 A D5
(/*0! " ' 8? F1 ' 8 + ( Mb) H
09 $)0 C51 ! FG ' - +5 /G! / !/
: . ? ' + $%
( . + ;9
. 4 ' /- = Q
0 )0 0' FG ! 91 7B + Q
. I%= /
-١١١ -
0 ( FG 3I' C 7 <9& ( Q
FG 3I' C 7! 7 >1 ! <9& %1 ! . '/ ?
0 J0 0 <. 5' H- FG / ! 4 <=& (10 0 U !0 D/ FG ( $%
K' L4 9 7Y
$%0
0 .B ' c ! B 351 <9 . 351 0
' 0/ +' . ? ' - <= 8 %& 3I' & ;9 ' 9 ( /& . ' -1
.+!/ I5! 4 / L & $%
: - + ( 8 %
$%-! 3- . +B 2 / -! ! ! (/ .M
0 D/0 WI 6 J C L4 ' , ; K' H%! 0& ;E0 0 / 81 9 9G L5 , L4
810 0/ ]!B > + ! B 351 FG C/ 351
. L ' 8
;% B 7I 9 ( 7 .R
0& ;E / 1 7B ' FG <4!& +' $%0
FG c4 & ! A $%- 9 $") $ 351
' 8
<9& %1 ! ! $%
9 H% I%= +95 L . . ? (4 @! 74 ! 3I5
A0 0 7!0 /) ! * +. .V
0 0 6*0 0& H% ;E 91 7B ' ! 5
.
0! @! 9 3I' A A ,! +. .a
. - F1 - +5 1
0 704 9 L5 * 9 L!& .S
. ' +<5/ ! '.
A! < A' 5/ 351 FG ' +& .b
. 91 7Y A %5 + A' C-! C= I!
0 F0G 3! ) ' ( ; ! 4 .`
505 02 +0B ) 0! c01 L4 @ 4 ' +' ?
0' 04 0-44 +!/ 1 8? 6 . $%
( 9
0 09 ! - , J > ( - & $%
(9
-١١٢ -
L' .4 %
7 69 ) 4 . -
.
$%
+ & ;E 6* + / A 5 /9 8 3' .O
/0 J? ' - (! " 9 AI.! 5/ A -9 A
0' +09 !9B AI.! -!! ' 8 C AI.!
05/ L5 & ;E 6)* 5 /9 8 3' & 1g ! 1 7
. 7 ' (.' A. ' " A (9 + / A
0 0 9 74 (9 /9 8 L 8
8 (/* H%!
C0B 0 C0 (/ -44 J 9 ' J9 /9 8 ! !
/9 8 3' ' += 8 J9 6 & 1 -44 J9 -
. !9B !/ C $%- /
A0 0' F0G 89 ") ' "
" J ; ' 9G &"%&
0 0 0 )0 =! 3I5 9 ) 6 C-! 51
09 ( ' -! 51 A 9
A 7' / Fe /- ! ' = ! 6 / . ;9 ' 8I
0& 0' 0 0 0 ' > C %
7 !
. + 9
:
א
א6אC
6−٣−٢−&
+0 0! 0' ! B -' ' U!/ U 5 J
$%0
0 0 +!/ ! (/* ! $%- 9G W ' +!/ !! 8
5
(١)
.
4! A! ' 9& (%5) ! /* !
–0 0 0' U
U . 4 " % 5 J '
/ 74 . ! ( U 5 / 9
(01 +0!/ 0/! C51 5 FG +9 '*/ ! 1 $%
C
C0 (01 U C (7852.6) ' 81 5 F& A5 4' (1999-1985) +5
0" 0 0" C0 (1 U C (11742) & (1984-1980) " (B
351! ! 6)! U "1999-1990" +' (1 U C (26460) "1989 -1985"
' W ; 81 5 &.(٢) 2002 8 U C (24301) & ( 1996 8 %
(٣)
. F1 & ]! (/* -45 = +!/ k! .4 !9 /* A 5 &
. ;'A > , I , C - , + 7 45C : &''. , ,C )
1
. I – E + F – $ Z D )
2
. 263 > I – 1
- – - M P 267 7 : 2001 ,C )
3
-١١٣ -
: 1 # 7 45C 1 ).);)&)&
%0
+5 (1 9G !/B 84 81 5 /*
: (RO) 8 (9 6. (2005-1980) 5 267 1 ! J! 7 45C 1 F / &A/ 2
45C 1
45C 1
! J! C
M
% 1
59
52
55
64
SS
48
63
75
69
62
62.3
Sa,S
21007
20605
24751
28520
RaVNb
15473
24470
162986
168994
196253
165736
MVS`NP
aR,M
M`O`RM
B
B
1 ! J! C
M
% 1993
1994
1995
1996
MNN`
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
RPPa
63
61
51
54
49
48
25
33
24
27
34
44
6523
5621
5939
5195
4587
4759
2188
7871
6625
9139
16499
17218
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
RPPS
SN
RP``a
MNNR
. $ Z + " 1C : : & ( RO ) 8 (9 ! *
0' 0 (/*! ! $%
A9 " (B C (1 5 ! L5 A09 %
> 1989 8 (%27 )& 1980 8 ( 63% ) -5 +5 " C
0/ 01 5 / + +5 $%
(1 5 9 / ' ! &
(0! (24) 0 0 801 5 351 & B C1 = &
. 1986 8 (! (13) & 1981 8
+05 (01 0 04 0 09& 0 05 !0 5 /* (%62.5) 2000 8 (% 75)& 1990 8(%24) ! $%
5 4' (RPPPQMNNP)
H! ' (! ( , 81 5 ^ & H% > 2003 8
0 . 1999 8 ' (9.9)/ ! 2003 8 (31.5) 2000 8 (22.7)&
81 5 ' U U- -* ;% (%48) 1998 8 ' =! ! $%- >
.;0 ;9 ! -! 5 8 U9 ! U"g H ! "* ! / 4' 9G ' 5 7' 4
k0! 04' (RPPV –MNOP) +5 (1 81 5 9G -١١٤ -
–MNOP) +05 (01 05 5 ' rxy= 0.98 ! ! (
MNNN 8 + (MbaNN ) & MNOP 8 + (bSRV) (MNNN
0 +0 (VOOOP ) & MNOP 8 + ( OR`V ) 5
Q RMOO ) 0& (MNNO – MNOb )0 5 - >1 -9 .MNNN 8
-05 0 .51 (!4! + (MSa`V
. + ( VRaaV ) & + (bSMNN)
8 (! 351 ' 8
(1999-1985) +5 (1 +!/ /! C51 5 FG &
(2005-2000) 0 0' !0 $%0
A5 C51 5! - . 8 5 0 %0
05 4* LB 3! & 9 9 H% (%6.8 , % 3.8)&
: (9 6.
(2005-1980) 5 # 1 ! J! C 45C 1 4 ( &/ ) 2
45C 1
45C 1
! J! C
M
! J! C
M
%
1
3.8
4.3
Q
3.5
b,S
725
318
808
1426
1237
610
7072
9390
8003
RMa`a
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
RPPa
19.5
25.2
26.9
26.1
26.2
14
15
8
4
3
-
4104
6784
5751
5319
4081
1842
5343
1946
1043
551
356
1980
1981
1982
1983
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
b,O
RNSV`
RPPS
-
579
1992
-
1815
1993
% 1
. E + F .(2006-1981) Z D : RPPP 80 0 C0 ( MObaM ) 0 (2005 -2000) 8B ' 9 5 / A9 &
0 4 351 9 + & RPPS 8 C ( MPMNN) &
50 0 L05! -.0 80 0 I" 5 >!/ ! +9 4 5 (1
0 (600) 6 2003 8 =! 5/ L5 > 4 2003 8
00! 04 0 +0 $%
I ! 9 = 6 2004 8 =! -١١٥ -
0 0 ' +4 B 7' 2005 8 ' 915 =! 2.4
.(١)
=. C51 "" 5B ! +' (1 81 5 &
50 70 !4! %
") 9 >1 -9 6/ -9 ' . 81 5 ' * 351 , (1 (1998-1986) ' , / -9 81 5 8 ! 4 & +*G 9
! ( =! 4' (2004-1980) +5 (1 >1 -9 9G - 8
80 0' 0= 0 U0!4 (% Na) Rxy = 0.99 = ! J
80 0' ( U04 + ) 65 $9 ' = -4' +5 (1 81 5 ! !/ ; >1 + /E 9G (/*0! 0 2003 8 ' 5 ! 351 8? U U9 5
801 5 F& / 351 & A9 & 5 ? 8 ' & +05 05 FG ' 351 & * 1 5 !2 3! J. 9
. 4
:E
(
א
א6
א
א2+;–א٤−٢−٢
*E 1 ( ) 4 91 +9 L ! ( '
8 81! H% ' $") D/ ( H ( (/ ("
0 (0 0' 1 "/B JB " 4 6/ ( RPPa QMNOP )
: *E 1 L 91 +9 L ! !!
. ( 91 +9 L *E/ ) QM
. ( L *E/ ) QR
( L *E/ ) QV
: C 1 1 6
).)K)&)&
0! (01K! 9& ! : 9 SPPS W! 81! J &
:( ) ! " : (/* 1 Y = a0 + a1 x1 + a 2 x 2
. E + F , &''9 D )
-١١٦ -
1
: 9 !" J!
~
Y = 5.226 + 0.060 x1 + 6.984 x 2
: 6' . (" %
(! 0 (0 H%/ ( x1, x2) = ! ! !9 (a1 , a2 ) +*& & QM
. 4 = ' ! = ( A! = ' ! =
0= 0! (" /E R2 = 0.96 ( =! 4 QR
$0 0/ ' = % Nb ( A! = 4
0 0/E 0
(r=0.98 ) =! ! ( / = $%
(1 : (1 -. J A! = 4 = ! tr =
r n −m
1− r 2
0
tr 0 0=! 0 tr >2 / P,NS (! . / (r ) /%
. ! ( . /E (bN,V)
: ! 5 *' ( =! QV
F=
δ 2 y% n − m
= 240.69
.
S 2 yy% m − 1
(R2) 0 0 %
( v2=8 ,v1=1)(9 ( S,VR ) =! (F) !/ (a1 ) ( . " 1 P,NS (! .
+ + 4! (X1 ) = 9 ' = 4 0 ( X2 ) 0= 9 A! = ' = 4 a2 ( >1B = !" A
!/B "B $%
W >1B = !" A + + 4! 0 0 ' ( & ' = $%-
0 "E0 0 "/ ' "E ( bNO L04 <0& 0! ' !/B B <& J ;% B . 0 0 0 (4 69& ' + 74 $ !/ . '. 4 % 6 ' & B
+. & L4 91 +9 L ! ;4 ! C 91 7B ! 84 +. 9 3I' A A ,! 0 60 %& . 5/ +9 , ' + 9 $%
@! 9
F <9G $%
! / <9G 9 44 !9 8?
-١١٧ -
;%0 0 F0G 3I' L. 9 .4 %
. !9e 4' ! 9 8
70. J!0! C0 $ 3I' - , . - ! /* @!
.$ 91 7B ' 8 A FG (/ J - 8 7 0 !0 +0 0& L4 91 +9 L ! K' H%/
4 9 %1 (1 - ! = ( (-0 0 (09 %0
' -!1 +5 9/ (4 ! -" 9G +4
0' +04 ! - .5 4 & FG B <9G
F0G c04 +
H%. 91 7B & 1 7B ' AI.! A
J + A 4 (4 91 +9 ! (/*! D/ . !9B A (40 (0 0' 0= ( y0 ) A! !9 > ' %& :
(M)
! A! J! 84 . ( x1 )
Ε x = y ′.
X
Y
4 $%
3 X 2 = 55.319 RPPS 8 ' A! 9G
: YA! '
Y = a0 + bX
Y% = 3.738 + 5.682X
Y ′ = 5.682
55.319
= 1.3
249.319
D5! %M,V 4! = C K' %M 4! = 6 %
E X = 5.682*
. c4 + ' /E %
$9
: 9 !! c1 ' Y = a0 + bX
Y% = 6.8 + 7 X
35.530
=1
249.014
0= C0 K' %M 4! ' = 6 %
Y ′ = 7 ⇒ Εx ( y ) = 7
. $9 D5! %M 4!
, F 1C , 1- d : &''; , Y NC , , % , , )1
.&&'> 1 4 F
-١١٨ -
0! 0 0! 84 C =! ") > '
. A ( ) 0 ! " 9 * (/* : .M
: (/* Y t = a0 + a1t + a2t 2
Y%t = 9.25558 − 2.17572t + 0.150313t
2
R 2 = 0.80
r = 0.89
J r . /) ! (" +9 - %
F = 14.35
F ′ ( 2, 7 ) = 4.74 ⇒ F > F ′
:(/* " 9 A - !! ( H%/ .R
Y t = a0 + a1t + a2t 2
Y%t = 6.47013 − 2.20098 + 0.14507t 2
R 2 = 0.85
r = 0.92
F = 19.6
F ′ = 4.74 ⇒ F > F ′
( I& -/! 8 ' ! $ 4! 4 @.
012 L C1 %
& I 4 ! 74
L04 !0! +* ( " (!4 (M,V ! =! ) L ' " 9 !'
0 0
0 A 1 J %
. ( M ! =!) A0 0 75e c1 (1 +!/ ! %
B 1 J 0 0 351 & ;E ( / 9G / ! + D L04 0 ;0 0 0' L4' .( M) ( ' , D/ H%
0. 0 ' L4 %-! 8
= 4 91
%& 5 ? + ' 6 +9 WI 74 8 6 & 4 %- B FG 0 F0G ' $9 L J/ (/
= 8
09 H0% 0/ 5 ? + ' 8- 8 6' H%/ L4 %- 9G
A0 0 % 0551 0 !/ (/*! " $9 & > ;% 1 C.
+09 0& E0 8 - & FG / + & = !* I%= /
% , C R4M J 15 H% C PD : &''; : C P $7Y
1
C "O P , , % S 2 . C P C
www.syrianeconomy.com . -١١٩ -
0 044 (! 64 <B C. ' L4 ( 6
. - ' 9/ 0
(0! 4' <%= D -' ; ' 1 L4 J/ ' 1 1 +5 (1 "!4 " "/ L4 %
H . !9B (09 0' ". - 1 >1B / / J! (9
0 +4 A ' 8- L4 %
' ( 4 1 ) -9 9
0 0 ( L4 %
& -9 ( !9B '
: 9 7 3 9
. 6/5 .1 9 .M
. 91 7 9& 7 FG %
J + 1 9 8 .R
. Fe ) 8 9 8 .V
. 9 7 *G C. .a
0& 8.0 ! ;! (4 ! - A ;9 ;! (4 C. .S
0' 0I +9 ( A ;! ! L5 & TIR
5
. : (.) " H 2 " 7 O H% 6
)&)K)&)&
0 0 0! !! F% ' = ! ( $9 F% +0*! !!0 9 ! = + 4 = + !! F% ; "0! 0 I9 ( ; "! ( & = ! +*! ?
0! = ! ( +*! ? "g +*! "g & = ! ! ( ( / J!!
. !! F% ' ( path's ) 0= D04 305 0/ 0 8 , !! -B 4' = J
. ! ! '!
: 81
Z1 = Re
Z 2 = β1 Z 1 + Ru
Z 3 = β 1 Z1 + β 2 Z 2 + RW
Z 4 = β1 Z 1 + β 2 Z 2 + β 3 Z 3 + RV
1
) M.G.Kendall and C.A.O,Moir cheartaish .Bath analysis and Moded Building ,UFS tech .Boll
.No . 2/ tech414 London mar . 1997 .
(& ) I VC 25 -١٢٠ -
0"B D04 "! "! ( I- WI ! 8 @.
+09 = ! ! ! ' D ! +9 = ! *!
: = 4! ! = ! +*! ? "2 (" 4 ! 75 / D !
: (/*! @. /
X1 p41
p21= r21
p42
Y X2 p32
p43
X3 5 H 2 DC UDC C ( * ) C 2
(0" 0 84 1 $9 ; !! F% & ( 8 4' 4 DB : ! (9 ' J & =
y
X1
X2
X3
y
M
P,Na`O
P,NOVa
P,NOba
X1
P,Na`O
M
P,NSVS
P,OObP
X2
P,NOVa
P,NSVS
M
P,NSaS
X3
P,NOba
P,OObP
P,NSaS
M
. L 2 F : 0 0 Q : / "! 9G 7! (9 ' ! 81 /
Z 3 = β1 Z1 + β 2 Z 2
: 2 4 >& 81! H% P32 , P 31 ( /
: B 4
β31.2 = P31 =
P31 =
r31 − r32 r21
1 − r221
0.8860 − (0.9545)(0.9535)
= −0.2651
1 − (0.9535) 2
-١٢١ -
β32.1 = P32 =
P32 =
r32 − r31r21
1 − r221
0.9545 − (0.8860)(0.9535)
= 1.2068
1 − (0.9535) 2
: '5 81! : " 4
R.β = V
R −1 *V = β
: Z 4 = β1 Z 1 + β 2 Z 2 + β 3 Z 3
R −1
R
0.9535 0.8860
1
+ 11.8623 − 14.3827 + 3.2171
0.9535
1
0.9545 → − 14.3827 + 28.6824 − 14.6343
0.8860 0.9545
+ 3.2171 − 14.6343 + 12.1186
1
R −1
V
+ 11.8623 − 14.3827 + 3.2171
− 14.3827 + 28.6824 − 14.6343
+ 3.2171 − 14.6343 + 12.1186
β
0.9478 0.2716
0.9834 = 0.1391
0.9864 0.6115
P41 = β 41.23 = 0.2716
: %&
P42 = β 42.13 = 0.1391
P43 = β 43.12 = 0.6115
F%0 (0 0 0 (0 09& 0/G! @! "! 9 !
: / !!
: 1 J C 1 HY ) (.
: & 84
P41 = 0.2716 : *! " Q
: X3 , X2 = ! *! ? " QJ
P42 P21 + P43 P31 + P43 P32 P21 =
(0.1391)(0.9535) + (0.6115)(−0.2651) + (0.6615)(1.2068)(0.9535) = 0.67418
-١٢٢ -
& P,R`Mb 4! ' *! = & ;E ; C! X1 = %&
04! 0 0 0' 05 ! *! ? =
: B ; C P,b`aMO
*! ? "B + *! "B = / "B
P,R`Mb + P,`aMO = P,NaS`
. I* <1Y P,PPRM 4! I9 ! C1 : 1 # 1 HY ) ( &
P42 = 0.1391 *! " Q
: X1 ,X3 = ! *! ? "QJ
P41P21 + P43P31P21 + P43P32 =
(0.2716)(0.9535) + (0.6115)(−0.2651) + (0.9535) + (0.6115)(1.2068) = 0.8423
0 0' 0*! = & ;E ; C! = &
0 0 0! 0*! 0? 0= & ; C P,MVNM 4! . ; C P,OaRV 4! 5 . *! ? + *! = / "B
P,OaRV + P,MVNM = P,NOMa
0 0
P,PPR 0! C01 A R42 ! ! ( D5 P,NOVa . I* <1B
: 1 # 45C 1 HY ) ( ;
. P43 = 0.6115 : *! " Q
: X2 , X1 = ! *! ? "QJ
P41P31 + P41P32 P21 + P42 P31P21 + P42 P32 =
(0.2716)(−0.2651) + (0.27116)(1.2068)(0.9535) +
(0.1319)(0.9535)(−0.2651) + (0.1319)(1.2068) = 0.3727
0 0 0' *! = & ;E ; C! 5 = &
04! 0 ! *! ? = & ; C P,bMMS 0!
. ; C P,V`R`
-١٢٣ -
*! ? + *! = / "B
P,V`R` + P,bMMS = P,NOaR
. I* <1B P,NOba – P,NOaR = P,PPRR 0! R43 C1 D04 0 "! )! "! ( I- WI ( R ) 8 ! 8 @.
0! +*! ? "2 (" 4 ! 75 / D ! +9 = ! !9G "B
. I* <1B & '.& = 4! ! =
X1 0.2716
0.9535
(0.9535)
0.9478
0.1391
Y X2 0.9834
0.9864
(1.2068)
(0.6115)
X3 5 0.9545
C 2 DC UDC (() 2
:
אאא
א,אC
6−٥−٢−٢
%0
-04 1 U H% - 1 4 (4 L !
L04 %0
K' % 4! 9 ! ! 6I C1! L4
L0 0!/ <. ' +9 U
U J
: & ;E (4 L ' (! A $-* ;% A
. ! ' (- . G (/ (- : # 7 # 16 2MC R4 3% ).)9)&)&
0/ 60B H0% 70" ! (4 L 91 +9 L ! ! &
0 A0 (04 ;9 (! 8-5! H% 4 ,
;0! (04 0 60 B 4 91 +9 6' ;% 4! 1B /
. ;9 ;!
-١٢٤ -
0 04 ) 91 +9 L " +' ' 9 / 4
*0 0 A09 & > ;% B & ' 8
( @. = ,& ' U!/ U J ;% 1991 8 /10/ 8 " & 8 & (4
: (9 6. %
(4 I ! '
% 1 ! 4 2MC 4D 1 C P/ ;'/ 2
(2005-1980) 5
J! 2MC 4D 1 C
% % 1 !
J! 2MC 4D 1 C
% % 1 !
38
38
57.6
45.6
33.6
VV,a
34.3
36.3
18.5
M`
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
RPPP
2001
2002
2003
RPPa
37.4
34.6
28.5
28.7
25.1
22.8
25.2
37.6
46
40.3
1980
1981
1983
1986
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
Ma,O
RPPS
38.6
1994
. E + F ( &''*)./A.) Z D J 1 : 1990 80 (%25.2) 0 -!0 05 (4 I ( VP ) 8 (9 !
: & J%!% %
>. 2005 8( % 14.8 )& ! $%
A9 1997 8 (%57.6)&
0/ 0& A' 2 9 -& 9 +* (4 I ' !/ c4 & !0 0=! ,0 (4 L ' 1991 8 /10/ 8 " 9 "
$%0
.51 8" 1992 8 % 30.7 & 5 1990 8 % 4.7 (4 I ' "
.3I' & * (4 (I ' c4 4 ( ١)1999 8 % 14.4 & !
0 +0' >1B 4 & U L4 %
' " 74 ! . +4 ( D
80 JI. A9 1991 8 " 8/)! * A* <5& . /9 ! , H F 2001 – 1991 $C 1991 /10/ H C Y P P M )
. 17 >,I
-١٢٥ -
1
$%0
810 0-9 + (4 I +!/ ! (4 /* 8 %0
80/ 0- 0 - +5 69 8 ? 3?B I
.4
(04 /* ' MNNM 8 /10/ 8 " 69 U " B D9 A. . (4 I A9 ' 8
;% B 1998 8 <y ! 9) J/
01 < 0' U. U .51 ' (4 91 +9 ( /# - :(١) ! ' (4 L 8 %& A / 91 +9 8 (4
& 0 0! 0-9 ' U "/B ;! (4 : ;! (4 '
: $%
+<5/ (4 H
.U 91 U 1 AI.! / (- 1! 84 5 ;! (4 /* J? ~ 2003 8 25 8 U ! (4 .5 8 8 L5 . ' J 8
- * 4' 8 - J!!
(R)
TIR 5! ( * 8 .5 $%
+5 9 8 H%/
AI.! ( X' 9 8! D % ;< ' ;! (4 8
%85 8 ! t' ' 9 %& ! +<5/! + +
80 80 0 +09 > & 7 8 X' $%
& $! +9
1E0 0 +0 1 +<5/ 5. 4 1 / ! % -"
.1! k5 ( J9 "/ H
& A / (- (%! -9 8? U%&
0! +9 5 (1 A 1 ' -. 9! J "/ -9 (/* $
9 ' ;% (4 1 (" 1 6! 2005 8 A % >!/ +
3051 0 7 ' ' 8
+9 / +
80-! 804 0 (4 L (
) ( ! H% - C 8 '
. FG 8" (4 5/ 351 ' 8
6 +4
: 7 4C # 3 I4C )&)9)&)&
0 0B 9! 69 + 7 ' 8I4 1 ; * &
+50! & 7 A9* (.' ! H%! . www.Iqtissadiya.com P $7Y , &''K # 2MC R4 4 )
1
( . ) I # VC TIR 5 1
)
2
-١٢٦ -
. E (1G +& +' DE J%09 (1 + 7 $%
-44 / I5 9 H
C0
81 ! - A' (=* & ;E + +9 G (B
! ' (1 8 & '.G! %0 9 AI.! 1 7 $%
' FG , < (M)
. F1 U ! H- 9 /*
90 7 $%- (9 (/*! 4 (1 - A ' + 7 <*& 8 4' H%
" J0 % D 7*! 7* 4 ) 7 A! H-' 1
. ( % ' I' + 4 " - 8I4 A9* 8 +9 + 7 ,& (1 + 7 , 8
(0! 809 +0 * ' ' + 7 ,K! 1 8 & 8 4'
(01 ! * 4 6! -* ;% FG ! +9 ( A ;9
( R)
. + 4
%0 <9G 9 %1 8 4' -' " A9* 9 + 7 / *
: <9G $%
8
2 MNO` 8
t*0 0& c10 +0K! 0.4 MNO` 8 / MOM` / 8 4 & 0 )*0 +-0* ( ' - @ + 7 ' 0 09 0! c1 8 4 ] -' 9
"0 ]0 H%0/ +9& * ' - 3! A -' 4
. + *! E (1G 8 7' 8-* (4 I (1K! (01G ! 4 +%' B )! @. ;% MNNP 8 / OS`V / 8 4 A0 04! E (1G 7! +& A 4! E
+%0' A04 /9 B 7' 4 & + 7 9 +&
(V )
. + 7 ' " J
, , H6H C , # I4C : .//9 ,\4 , )
1
. /* > , I
C P
$7Y
, I4
C # H
>
# : &''9 C
, )
2
. www.iqtisadya.com
, H6H C , 1C
# #G 1CCH # 7 1 : .//. , , +
)
. .* > , I , -١٢٧ -
3
A9* ! !9B " J%9 ' +9 WI 74 8 <9G $%
&
. + 7 '
aP 8 & (1 + 7 ' " ' 84 8 4' H%
: ' $%
" RPPV 8
. 8 JI. '/ + 7 ' 4 " <5& QM
. D/! 4 F1 & 6! + 7 ' " !9B ( D ( QR
. 9 U 9 " @ + 7 . AI.! / QV
70 +0 7 ' 9 + 4 )* ; )* +-* @ Qa
. -' 1 !9B AI.! '
7' ! J9! + 7 & ' B ! ] QS
(M)
. 91 +9 8/ 6! @
(0/G 04 (1 & + 7 ' 9 3! E (1G! ] Qb
. 4 ( 9 ! +9K! -
. 91 +9 8/ <" (1 & % RS (1K! ] Q`
+0 70 0' " ( D " + ' U U ! $%
: (9 6. %
7 $%
' AI.! / (&''9) &''' ) Z I4C # H 4/;. / 2
B
&''9
&''K
&'';
&''&
&''.
&'''
MVP`
MSN`
MSMR
MRPP
NON
MPRS
" MO`V
M`NV
``a
MRba
ONV
ORb
D .( + 7 ' " ( D
bSV
`PS
SN`
bP`
MOP
MbP
+ + 7 &
SVORO
MRSVOS
bbSNV
OORVM
ONVV
`O`b
+ 7 ' 1 AI.! /
C P
, .K > , I4
C # : &''* , C
, : . www.Alalam.ekt.com
0! "0 J%9! 8
> ( + 7 ' , ;% &
+0 70 & /& 4 ' ; ]G 74 ' 7 H & !9B
. www.Aliqtissadya.com C P $7Y , # I4C : &''9, 2 , 6
)
-١٢٨ -
1
'0 A0 7 $%
>4 +5 @ ! " / ! ? (*
09 0-' (0 09 c1 + 7 ' -& / B . 5 !1
0/ 0 " U !%9 + 7 ' ;" x ! / H%!
(0! 01 U/ -' C 7 X' -! A ("B
7 (9 ' 1 ! / +9 B 4 & A / -' 9
. 9 " U! U/ +
*0B 04 /- ! 8 > + 4 ; ' AI.! / *E D/
' + 4 " 69 4 H > ! / AI.0! 0/ 0*E 8
' ! 91 8 4 ! ;9 (! 8 ' : ( RPPaQMNNb ) +5 (1 / /
I4C + PD- 1@ /;& / 2
C + J! 1
1
2
C
1
1
"% / M
C 2
"% / M
B
P,ba
P,O
Mb`OOaaM
M,M
RbRR`aRP
MNNb
M,MN
M,P
RPNaNNVO
P,`
M`SNNSNa
MNN`
P,SM
M,S
VPbORSPN
R,b
NNSaSRR`
MNNN
P,NR
M
RPbMNVVP
M
RRVNbSVM
RPPP
M,PR
R,M
aabSbOR`
M,N
aVS`aNaN
RPPR
P,Nb
M,R
Rb`MNVRN
M,R
R`S`OOPN
RPPV
P,NM
M,PN
MSNObObR
M,PN
M`SaNa`P
RPPa
, .//A 25S! , I4C @ # 447 1D! 2 % : . 1D # &''.
RPPP DB !! + U4 @9) ( ) 8 ( VR) 8 (9 (١)
: -
J! + & @9) %
(M) 0 U -' ( .'
. 4 -! ; / .M
. 7B ' -1 ' U -1 U 9 " 3! .R
. J 3 J! 1g 8 ! + A 3! 351 L5 .V
1 , + + 4 ! # I4C : &''K , C ,3 )
1
. (.) (&* ) – L
-١٢٩ -
> 0 9 *Y " +*! " I' + 4 (1 .a
. RPPR 8 ! A 691 4 + &
0& 8- ! 9 " *! , 4 & ! ] .S
. RPPP 8 A A D ' + 7
.5 DB !! U 4 + + 7 ( ) 8 @9) H%/
: U . J! + & @9) %
0 0 (%`V) 0!! 0 " C ' 4 ' ; / (M
. 4 & J
% + 7
0 %
! B ' +9 7B & 1 8-I.! " 3! (R
. @9) ' ! (9
0& 0 +0 & > ( %! I' + 4 ' " (1 (V
. F1 4
+0 70 0' 0 + & > 7 U1 +9 7B ]5 (a
. + 7 A9 & RPPV 8 % 6& . 4 & + 7 + & > )* ! ? ! ] (S
0! 60 / – + 7 ' ( & ) ! *0 0 0 . + - *E B – + 7 ;9
. AI.! / ' 9 @! ! 8 (/ ' ;9
0 0& 0 !0 =! , MNNb 8 ' U1 / ;9 RPPR 8 U ! @! %/
( M,MN ) ! =! , MNN` 8 ' U ! @! 6/ (P,ba)
. RPPV 8 (P,Nb ) !! U1
: H% c1 1g 8 ! +1 U ! ;9 @9) (9 0 70B! 0!/ (/*! + 7 ' " *B ! ( @9) %
QM
0' +09 70B ' 1 / F1 ' B , C 7
. . & ;E + 7 F1 & 1) + A AI.! 1 5 K' H%/ QR
. 3! 9 & ;E %
J +
-١٣٠ -
+0 7 ' 3! ( ' 1 AI.! 3! & QV
0 0' @0! 0& ;E & ! + & ;E '. . + 7 ;9
0& ;E 4 ' 4! G B 4! " * ") Qa
(١)
. 9 @! ! + 7 ' AI.! / @9)
A0 0 8 9 + 7 ' * '
* A! %
1g 8 ! U 4 + @9) -/ ( > ' + 7
+05 0' . 8-9 J 69 J 9 % "
65 ' A9 F1 & 8 4 & A9 +1B
: + 7 ' A ( 6. %
-9 4
( &''K – &''& ).//;) Z I4C # PC 1 1 4 (;;) 2
"% 1
"%
1
M
#-
4M h7 J!
4M J!
R
4M h7 4M 1
1
M
C
M
C
M
M
C
M
C
M
MOVPaS
RVbRPP
`a
M`ab`a
Rb
bMRSb
SVMab
aMM
RMOVb
SO,N
VMVMP
MNNV
MMVbVVP
RVNMPPP
Va,`
ORNRNa
bS,V
MSbM`Pb
MRSab`
NP
MMVObNS
MP
MMSNM`V
RPPR
VRSaaP
MR`b`SP
SR,a
bbOSPN
a`,b
bPORaM
NSMVMP
OO,S
OaMbVS
MM,S
MPNb`S
RPPa
. 447 ( &''K)&'';) Z I4C @ # PD- 1! : : (VV) 8 (9 ' ( 0 F01 ! (%OS ) "/ 4 ! =! MNNV 8 QM
0-9 ! + 7 A ! ( %
9G (%aM)
F0G ) , !9 51 !' ! I4 %= . C 81 A0 (%NP ) & F1 5 (%MP) & 4 9 QR
C*0/ 0 0 B ! @ 51 ! 9 ! . RPPR 8 9G
(٢)
. ! - C. + 7 ' . &* > &''; K' I I4C H VC # : U , F% )
1
– I4C 1 JM J! M 2 , I4C 1 – , #V )
2
. &''& % ;. )&/ I
-١٣١ -
09 RPPR 8 RPPa 8 (%MM,S ) & -! 5 / 9 QV
0!/B !0 4! -/ 9G ( % OO,S ) & F1 0-9 0 0! U 0! - "/ F1! ! + 7 ' 4! ,
. A : + 7 ' A '
9G (%`a) 4 F1 & (%Rb ) 4 & A ! =! QM
. & 3= 74 ' 8
H%! + 7 / MNNV 8
(% bS ) "/ 4 & ! =! + / RPPR 8 QR
0 +0 7 K' ! (%VS ) ( F1 & ! 9G A
70 0' 0 C ! 4 & A U/ @! * (1
0 0 ' & > F1 & B -'
+
. 4 ' -" 9 4 + 7 J? U 1
0' ! & RPPR 8 RPPa 8 ' 9G 4 A9 8?! QV
0& (0 -!0 09 F01 0& ( % a`,b ) @! U 4
. RPPa 8 A ( % SR,a )
B 0 (01 0 * (/ + 7 ' ;9 * 9 H%!
804 80" 0 0B $ 1 ' + 7 5 (MP) 8 4 8/ 7' "
. 4 & -1K!
: 1C – ;)9)&)&
D/ +I5 4 ' - ;9 * J9 +9 !
0 ' ( ," 4 ! ( '=9 A! A 4 : .B ! / (9 @. +9 !! 6
-١٣٢ -
(2005-1981) 5 -B 1C / ;K / 2
! J! 1C C
1C % 7
M
B
M
4 "% bP,b
71.3
OM,O
90
MMMSS
14321
RPPMR
5252
MNOP
1981
bN,R
ba,V
MaVRM
SRSR
MNOR
VR,S
6.7
6.7
ab,b
16.1
15.6
bSPM
1304
1183
MMORR
3782
3426
MNOV
1984
1985
O,a
Mb,`
MMVM
Rb`M
MNOb
O,R
5.7
3.3
2.8
3.7
32.8
4.9
3.8
5.2
6
6.7
7.2
10
11.6
O,a
4.6
4
3
12.7
23.2
15.2
19.1
21.4
19.8
4.6
7.9
29
18.2
MRMV
789
588
546
796
8016
1375
1156
1442
1688
1924
2606
4238
4292
VbbV
1853
2317
2299
8881
17185
14778
13529
16338
16253
18888
37085
155837
91774
MNO`
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1995
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
MN,a
VP,a
bVVN
M`SRaR
RPPa
RV,S
VM,S
NR`M
RP`Vab
RPPS
.E + F, (2006-1982) Z D 1 J 1 : ( / ) +9 ! ' U U 9 9 7! (9 ' + 8B +< 0 (%90 ) 0 !0 $%0
.51 4' 1982 8 ! ( / ) 91 +9 9& U !! 351 %- H* / (% 2.8 ) MNNP 8(% 3) & 1980 8 / (%71.3)
(١)
: -
/% +"/ (
0/ 0/ J!! !9B ( 4 ' ! ( ! +9 89 351 QM
. >1 -9 G J 45 -9 (٢)
. - C. QR
C 447 , 7 4 # $6 Y# : 1995 ,LS ,6%)
1
. *> I , .26 > E + F 1995 , # 7 R4 4 )
-١٣٣ -
2
J0 J!B ! 81 5 / 351 9 5 I A9 QV
. D! D! '
@0' 9 /9 ' (9 (! .4 1989 8 ' 25 8 ! 6 & Qa
0' +0 AI.! 1 ! A'! .4 1991 8 7 8 4 +' A 4 +' ' (/ ) +9 ! 5 ( ) 4
(١)
. "
0 / 1 D )' % )' (/ $-* ;% !/ * / /QS
0' + 7 & 1 (% 30) 7 & -9 )' ! - (%70 )8
%
+9 ( 8 c1 ' ! 8 & '.G!(٢) 4
(V)
0 * J ( !9B * (1 (- 0/ *0 0' -
L5 ! ' / * ' "
"
;09 0 0' "9 +9' %& 91 +9
80(%`b,M) 0 L0! 0"" 0 "/ = ; ;
& . & (1 "g @ ' " +9 J .(a)RPPS
L.B & 69& / ( 1999-2001 ) ' ! $%
A9
.( S); ! 4 +9 ( - %1
: ! 1@ 27 )K)9)&)&
0- /9 8 A' ! + AI.! +& +*! + 7 AI.! A - !
L0 !0 (1 !9B AI.! A. E (1G . /9 8 A' (!
%0I A.01 0-K' H- + $%
! 4! %K' + 44 L ' + 4!
. 8 5 F1 %& /9 8
'.0 4 C & /9 ' 8 %
8 8?!
c1! - 3! (1& ! / H% ! +1 4 $%
(9
'. 4 <5 .! ] 8 / (1 & -'.& 4 J H%/ A4
J9! .(b)U ! ] B -!4 ! ]! !9B A4!
37 > I , 1
- , WHG + - VC : 2004 , , C)
1
. .(A> , I P ....... # +C 5 4: &''K, , +
)
2
www.iqtissadya.com C P $7Y &''* , # + 2MC) )3
. E + F, &''* D )
4
.&>............... W$ I P , # + 2MC )
5
. .9> , I , W$ I P ..., 1C
# 34 I# 7 1: .//., ,+
)
6
-١٣٤ -
0? J0 0 +& A E (1G <5& 8 MNO` 8 (RORO) 8 4
'. 4 !9B A4 +K! - ;9 ; @' E * 4
0 c0 H%/ . ; D 9G 4 % aP (4 ! ]!B
J0 4 ? J +& A E (1G (! 8
0I !0! I - 7 FG B % 4
0 %aP !0 -?! 8 5 J/ H% 9 W (/ 7! (/*! <09 8" 9G 4 (/ +& D - 4 J ' . 9G 4
@0 (10 ' A 9 '. 4 J RPPM 8 ( SRb) 8 4
0 0B 0 0 -!4 ! ]! !9B A4! '. 4 <5& .!
E (/*! 1 ! (9 .U ! ]
+0& 0 04 !0! (%25 ) =! U' U (/* + 7 / (١)
E (1G (%17) ( (2005-1981) 5 267 1@ 27 3 4 /;9/ 2
. 4 "% : : M
!
1@ 27
M
M
70
59
SN
2480
2685
RbOS
26
24
Ra
1011
1143
MMaV
73
2262
21
108
3129
130
130
80
208
33
MbR
RbV
!
1@ 27
M
M
1994
1995
MNNb
OO
25
bN
MMSR
1572
SOP
SN
60
VP
NMV
917
SOP
MNOP
1981
MNOR
989
1997
VM
``P
VS
bOR
MNOV
17
882
1998
Sa
SMa
VP
SaR
MNOa
4220
5474
5857
9232
2488
MMMVM
40
78
60
90
52
Na
2003
2402
3076
3416
5255
ObPa
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
RPPa
46
27
21
47
15
36
304
244
247
610
1337
697
19
19
18
18
62
30
300
322
273
461
1622
867
MNOS
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
MRSNb
MPS
NVRa
RPPS
59
846
38
958
1992
SN
Oab
VO
NSO
MNNV
E + F,(2006-1982) Z D : (1987-1981) +5 (1 (/*! 9 ( VS) 8 (9 !
;%0 MNNP 80 OS`V 80 4 / 4 . +5 H (1 + 7 ( 9 J!! H%
28 > F C , + F , # I4C )
-١٣٥ -
1
0 0 70! +& A 4! E (1G ! 4 B )! " @.
A04 0B 7' 4 & + 7 9 +& A 4! E (1G
+ (1337 ) $%
A' ' U
U
(١)
." + 7 ' " J +%'
0& 2003 80 0' (/*! 351 2002 8 + (9232 )& 1990 8 . 0 +0 (MMMVM )& RPPa 8 ' >1 + L5 + (2488)
351 U U !! 4 (1 ' U U AI.! ! / !
. ! '/ A (=* 7 I' - H%/ ;9 9
0/ 0 81 J - ) 4 (1 ' E (1G B U
H%0 2003 8 (%13) MNNN 8( % 20 ) 1990 8 (%17 )( - + 7 J
+0 0 (5255) & 1990 8 + (1622 ) E (1G 4'
04 <50 .! ] & + $%
> (%89 )k! + (! 2003 8 0! ]0 0 B -!4 ! ]! !9B A4! '.
A4 3! (1& 8 4' H%/
(٢)
. 9 ! SRb 4 4' 0' 0
/* +& A 4! E (1G ! -' 81
. (1 ' A 9 '. 4 J ]! 4 69 4 (1
c0 E ! +& E (1G ' %
&
7B * & ' A' 5 4 ! ! 8 %& 4 (1 0/E 0 %
' c1 L4 A9* + (I! F& +
. +9 ' " 9G ' -* + 7 : 7 4C # i# )9)9)&)&
-1 ! ' ; * D/ +g (/* -/ A! X' &
*0 0/ 0-1 ' 8 ! C1 ! ;9 (! / ' 8
-/ U . &
C01 0 ( 8 !9B A4 ' B ! . ! ' 9 A* 9 . 1 A
JI.0 0' 0 $%0
(" U
U ! X'
( ) AI.! - 8 51 8
. i ... ( 1 -4'
(0 . 60 70 / X' (/* ;% ;! (4! ( 8
4' H% U .051 5/ H% ;9 (4 ;! (4 (/ J9 & 8
B !
. .* > ,W$ I P ... , 1C
# #G 1CCH # 7 1 : .//. , , +
)
1
. &A* > , W$ I P ... # +C 5 4 : &''K , , +
)
2
-١٣٦ -
0 +!/ / H
. ;9 (4 ;! (4 C/ & U X' 7 (4 U!
(١)
. 5 ! + ' -4 / AI.!
X0' H - A.1 8 U ! H% >1 & X' C1 %
: 7' B $%
!
. " 4 7' X' <!! @ ;% '=9 A QM
. 5 +!/ B (!4! @ ;% (/ * ( QR
09/ 0 04 +" 9 , 7!! @ X' * ' QV
. * k5 ' " (I 7 (.' 81
: 7 4C # 3 # i# 3%).)9)9)&)&
0 C0
704 ' ! J % ! ' X' )' (/ ! , 5 D! )' D )' % )' (" 9 0 89 & '.G! ! '=9 6 (1 > . 91 +9 + ' 8- -K' H% 9 )' (/ 8E
;! (4 * $") 4 ' U ! X' /
70 0 0 8 /- A A 4 ' ' 8 %& K' H%
3I0' ' +9 A G 2 ! X'
L04 0' @0. (/*! ! 4 ' / !. 1 FG '
0 0! X' (=* !9& (/*! D/ A H K' . ' )' 6! ;% +
")0 60 / ! ' J 74 * 6K' !! U 0! X' ! / H%! * . X' ! ( ٢)
. 4 $-* ;% ; *
01 X0' (0 7 A9 91 +9 5 J ;! (4 !
. > & 6! <4 L4 %
, -9 -4 - (4 C0 80 ! ( ' / X' -4 1 (
0 A0 D/ C ! 7 AI.! * <4 A' I' 8
0-K' H%0 '.& (/ )' ' ;% > !/ (/*! D/ 1' ( H '
C 447 , 447 6
, # + 2MC 7 : .//& , % , >7 )
1
. .9A > . /. > , 3M , 7% P4 , + 2MC i# @ # #% : .//A ,, ,# )
-١٣٧ -
2
01 804 0& F +!/ X' ! += +!/ / < X' 89! 7
1.0 50 (!4 & '.& 4" % 5 !/ / (!4 A / 1.
(١)
. += X' & (1 -/ JB H 4' AI.! * J ' U 1 8 ' , ;% !/ 9
0 6 * L %-! 5 F% 1 , . * 9 J &
. * .! !9& D/
351 & ;E U . H% & '.& H- / & -4 -=5 - - & '.&
. .! @ H 9 - ) (
(0! 0 H ' 1t! *! (/*! ( -K' 1 JB 1 $%- 9
091 +9 B C
B 74' X' * U ?. U J ! - ;9
. X' $%
!
FG C ! 4 9 ) X' 7 8 %&
J0? 4 X' ! * ?5 AI.! / 7 $%
– / – & – J*1 – : (/* ( + ) ?5 A
AI.0! 0 * "/ % 4 X' ' ?5 AI.! B 9 (/* A
' 4 84 5 51 – J! – 1 – * – – 5' Q : ( + ) *
. D ' G ( 9 G ! . ( D0 % ) X' ' ( / + -& * <9G F0G C0 ! 4 9 ) X' $%
7 8 %& (/*!
. 7 4 J9 & ' X' 6! ;% !/ & * (Vb )8 (9
0! + + AI.! / (9 ! ' >1B : (2005-1981) +5 (1 )'
, + 2MC B , + 2MC M $5C # 3H% 1 : .//; , M , C )
. ;& > , 1 -١٣٨ -
1
-١٣٩ -
)0' 0! +0 AI.0! / ' U . U.51 H
(Vb) 8 (9 : -
/% ( 9 & H% > 9& & -!
0 ' +4 <9& J X' ! 9 & Q
70 0 9! 84 6 D % )' ! ?' (
(١)
. /9 4' & '.G! ;! (4 /*
(0 A0 +0*! 1 9 ' – A 1 /!* ' * C. H
Q
. 4'G ( A !
(0" 01 < > C. / /*! 1 / Q
(٢)
. /* $%
B 0
0 "E %
U9 D % < A 1 & Q
. -5/ + & ;E --9 & - U U J + AI.!
. 4 A 4 " +' (1 )' ' ?5 AI.! / 351 Q
: & 351 %
> ( 4)
. c1 L4 > 351! c1 ' * . % ! . X' / D/ ;! (4 A. ; . X' ! 89 A9 & > A & A0 & 0! +' ' )' ' ?5 AI.! / L5 8? 0/ 69 H
& % & * ?5 / A -!9 8 & * (
: -
)' ! + +
)0' & * - (500) % )' & * +9 L5 QM
04 09 0-=5 80 (0! U % )' & 4 5 B H% !
(٣)
. X' ' 2 4 <9G
0! +G ' A 4! E (1& D B 8 6& QR
(0 ;% !9B A4! X' 7 +& )' 8 A. . '.& 45 <! ( & ;E %
5 )' 8 C. 85.2
. www.mowaten.com , C 1M : 2003 , % ,2-5)
1
. www.Alalam.ekt.org , &''K , # i# , ", 6 )
2
. .( > , I , 4 , C 1
: 2003 , 27 , )
3
-١٤٠ -
0& 9 A' X' $%
81 A9* (" I' ' 1 8 L5 QV
.0! 09G 04 ' 5 J! 8 $%
K' H%/ ! (4 7 ,!
% X' +9 '! .4 2004 8 /2569/ 8 4 / (١)
. +
(0 0' 0% D ;)' /* G 9 6!9! 4' +!/
+0!/ ( %
H% 9 / %25 !! 8 A' 351 )
0 )' ( U +9 ( A U * 4! / +9 ' 7! '
. -1 +<5/ A' X' , ' 8
H%
<09& 70' 0 I' U /9 AI.! c1 ' ! <9G ( Qa
c1 I' 8& (9 / !! 8 7! 8 A +4
.
( ٢)
C J ' "/ %1) 8 ( "/ (" /9
0 C0 J!! / AI.! (9 ' RPPV 8 ' )' +!/ 9G & QS
0 6! 8"'" 3' 7 & <! +& 69
MPPPP > 9& & > 5 -=5 AI.! (4 ' c1 L4 0' 0 C0 (NSP) (`) & D )' 9& A' & > . + +1!
0/G & 5 + $%
. AI.! 9& ' ! )' J4 69 RPPV 8
. (V)- (4 9 0= 0! 0! (0 09 91 +9 (4 ! !
0!9& 0 0 0
( RPPV QMNOa +05 0 (4 I )
I0 0' 0= & 4 ' = (% OM) %
rxy = 0.91
. >1 = & ! (4 tr =
r n −m
1− r 2
= 8.513 > 2 : 9 ! ( !1
0 0' J ( ;9 ;! ;! ) 6 A9! (4 L K' ! ; -'
0!/ & C 91 +9 ' (4 L 91 +9 L
09 0 0 A J9 & !9 91 +9 L $-* ;% > '
. ( ) FG 3I' C 91 7B
. www.Iqtissad.com C P $7Y , i# : &''9 , ,[ )
1
) B 5 1 - # + + 2MC R4 4 I#G:&''9, M , )&
. – B C # 1M% - ,
.;K> ,I P );
-١٤١ -
!
א+
+
אא
א/F6+
+09 & %& 0 F0e /- ! A 91 +9 /- ! 7'
0- 0/ " H- FG ' 9 D/ +g ! 91
A0 0 09 ! 1 +*! ! ! 9G !!
0 ]0 3I5 H- (c1 8 )6! H- -/ 1
J*0 I- A ( A ' -4*! 91 +9 " . L' ! 74 (5/ ! 0' 0!" 0B! 0! $%
3 ! 8 (/ ' 1 A = U
0' 0! 0
0/ ]0 %0- 10 ' 44 C 2000 8
: ( D / RPPP 8 !! ) ( V`)8 (9
-١٤٢ -
-١٤٣ -
: ( V` ) 8 (9 !
!0 0 ,0 I! 1 A 4 ' QM
80" 644 9 1980 8 A 4 1990 8 ' (%14.4) & +
0* 0 9 6 & 1990 8 A 4 2001 8 ' (% 25.6) & ! $%
5
8 A 4 ( %7) & 2001 8 ' U! 89 351 % .1995
2001 8 ( % 23.3 ) & 1980 8 (%9.2 ) ] 3I5 89 & 89 ! L5 QR
.c1 (/*! 5 ' 4 644 ;% ; J!! H%
0 9G W 9& ! 75 (" ] 3I5 & QV
0/ ) I- H- !" ( D / ' 3I5 %
81 8 : (/* - (/ ' 89 " / , ( !*
1985 80 0' 0- !0 0 =! %& & !" ( D / J ' J%!% Q
MNNP 8 ( %45.7 ) & ! $%
A9 1 A 9& (%`N,`)
0= 0' <0' + 8 91 8 4 (
0 705 0/ 2003 80 0' 8? 9
0. 1 9 8 ( ;% B + 30216
( ! . 2 !" (B L5 9 (9 ' 8
2000 80 (%39.2) & 1980 8 (%66 ) H- & J A9 QJ
H-0 ;%0= 0 A9* / 8 6 ( 2001 8 (%42.5)
9 / (9 FG 351 A ,! 0 -50 / 1 /- 9 35 H- . 7 (1 F1 & / ,!
198080 ( %59 ) 0 J*0 I0- H-0 09& & ! 351 QF
: 9 H% 2001 8 ( %51.4 ) & U A5 2000 8 ( %49 ) &
351 B ? / A / c4 ' !9G 69 Q"M
0I%= 0 )0 L 9 /- A 4 . 4 !
8 4 (1 A < +45 4! (1 351 U H- & ( 351 Q"R
0! 0 8-0 (/* H- c1 4! 5 7Y 7 9
. & (
-١٤٤ -
0& U0 <0?B @ (1 A +& / . 1990 8 0 (1 ;% +*! JI. L5 -9 " 4 <5G
] (1 ! / U 9 U ' !* H- 351 ! >1 -9
W0 0 705G 9& & H- ! .51 %& (/*! (1 1 H-
(١)
. 2001 8 ( % 73.7 ) & 1980 8 ( %93) 9G 80 0' 0- ! 9 , & / I- H- ! 9) Q
!0 $%0
890 1995 8 ( % 30 ) & ! $%
A9 ( %99.3 ) =! , 1985
<& A FG ' c4 & 4 ' -9 A . ; * ' !/ U c1 L4
I0- 0 H-0 9 ! 1 A 4 FG ! +95 & U%&
0' 0 09 & 1988 8 " +' ' +9 / /
U=0 9 %
/ ( / 1 A ; 91 9
= ! (4 %1 8" ( %80 ) = / , ! +' '
.(٢)( MNNP Q 1987) ! +5 ' ( % Sb ) ( %45 ) ! , '
8 9 ! ; ' 9 - ( 9 %
/ 4 9 -5/ 8 ! 4 ' c4 & I (/*! ;% 1989
%0
") > + 91 4 351 ' - ( c4 %
. 91 +9 351
!0 A0 ! +*! ") 91 8 A 1 A ! . 9G 4 :
א
א
אAא−١−٣−٢
*B <! ' "g D 1 +4! !" ( D / ")
0 C A 91 +9 6 $' ! " ") / +9
0/& 0 "0 %05 (09 ' H% ? " 9/ 5 ' & '.G!
(/*! / 75G L5 8
-
I- W A 0 W !9G ") ' ( " * ( ' 1! ") ;% ) 8
; ( L5 89 (/* ' F1 & J 89 ! A5 1B %
A5 /
> / 75G/ 1 75& ; ") 6 C. ( ' ( &''& – ./A. ) Z D , E + F )
1
( .//. – ./AA ) Z D , E + F )
2
-١٤٥ -
W0 *0 0 75G ! ") ' 8- U I 91 +9 4! W
(١)
.
U0 " -9 (B 89 351! ( ! I/ ; ! 4 81.0 0 A0 4! 44 +I5 351 (1 89 1 89 351
A9*0 0& C
;% 19918 /10/ 8 "! 4 * 4' %- I
"0 A* A9 ' !9B ! ( (٢)
!= 8- J "
A4! ! @5! 5 F1 /9 <5& " @ 4 '
L04 ] ; ;9 C > ! ! c1*Y !9B
. ; ;9 C 7 8- ! c1
05/!
(٣)
L* (1550) 1991 8 10 8 " 4! * A* =! %
(%12 ) %5 ! =! ( " J/ 4 J ) ( 8.5 )& ( "
0 bPbPRR" 5/! L* RPPa = (VbOM) & %
A5 . A* $%
4'
0 ' " 89 9 H% (٤)
!9 A + ( abPVbb ) 6 +
: (VO) 8 (9 6. %
1995 8 U<! A9! !
7 > I , CH , # H >5 : 2003 =C4 , F )
1
L , 7 3 Hj : 1998 h# =C , 2
)
2
44 > -12-, 3M C CH , C P , 1
14 > # +H fC : 1996 C , N )
3
. wwwALiqtissdya.com , 5C L B .. + )
4
-١٤٦ -
-١٤٧ -
: (VO) 8 (9 !
0 +05 (1 351 9G W 9& !/ H- 9 & Q"M
80 0' (%Oa,b) 2002 80 ( %69.3 ) & 1980 8 ( %96.7 ) (2001-1980)
0 5 (1 ' ! +95 & H- ' 351 5 RPPS
. FG -! -5 !! 8 5 (1 B H% 9G W '
2001 8 (%18)& 1980 8 (%32.3 ) 9G W & " ! A9 Q"R
& +5 (1 " 89 351 J! RPPS 8 (% Rb,V )
: . 2 1995 8 ! ' ; / (M)
. 4 ' +I / 8? 9 !. <!B (44887)0 .051 ,0 (1999-1996) +5 (1 !/ (/*! 89 A9 !0 H%0! 9 1999 8 + (38880) & 1996 8 + .( %13.4) 4! 351
!.0 81 6
9 8 75G ! = ' -' 8 */ L! . -!" D A9* 5 +)/
. C !0 "0 (
4' (% NQ% `) ! ] !! +I5 351 & 75 ! ' 34 ( C/ / !" $! +I5 304 0 (0 0 %
C +I5 7' A' " & ; +I5 (R)
.J
0 0! 0& 0 B + 2 C/ L5 C0/ L5 !4 + (bP) & L5 !
0 + 351 & > +9 7 ! 4 (% RP) . 7 ' '
. I " 69 "! 1 E & 4' (V)
. "! 1 ! J? . www.Iqtissadya.com, I , # - VC : &''; ,C , N )
1
.A; > , W$ I P ..... + # +MC VC : &''; , C ) 2
,
/ & / .* , I , , CH H6H C , 7 7 #C 14 P " C R4M 23Y : ./// 7 , C ) 3
. & > , .////*/. O .///
-١٤٨ -
(0" 0 B 75 B +9 3' 605 80 L4 ! A! 3' 8 / 64* 4 64* @4 (M)
. c1 L4
(% b,S )0& MNNS 80 ( %MS,VM ) 0 W & c1 " 89 A9 "0 3051 J!0 A9 ( % S`,S )
351 ! H%! 9 RPPP 8
01 8/0 01 A J ^/ 6 A9 & c1 L4
. c01 L4 89& 9 1 ! A* ' 8 " 89 L5 <9 0& A5 MNNV 8 W ( % `) 8 " 89 k! , -! 84 & RPPV80 (% MS )0& A5 RPPM 8 (% MR ) ! 4 8" ( % MP)
k0! 0 01 ( ( RPPM 8 ( % MO) & " ( A9
x0 ;0 0/ 0 ( (RPPM – MNNO) +5 (1 (% Rb,R)
+5 (% Va ) .51 ( D 9G 9G / 8I ? ;"
0' !0 $%0- 8 $9 (RPPV – MNN`) ! +5 (% Ma )& (MNNb QMNNP)
.A9
0' U 0 ! 75 (" ;% 91 8 A ( ' D/ QV
+05 0 0 0 +05 (01 0 9 ;% 91 L4 A.
( +75927 ) 04! U U.I' 91 8 A ( ' (9 , (2004-1997)
0' (0 9 %
RPPa 8 ' !/ 9 74 2001 8 + ! " 1 H- FG ! (1 & 91 8 A (
!/ 91 8 A ( ' 644 ;% ! (VO) 8 (9 &
J04 ( 1998-1990 ) +5 ( (/*! 9 c4 9G W 09G 0 W !/ 8 * (2003-2000) 8B ' 3I' &
(%16.3 ) 0 -! 5 4' A. ' & +5 (1
D5 (1 U .51 8 9 4' (!4! 2001 8 ( %39.5) & 1980 8
705G A09 0& H0% A09 20018 (%31.4) & 1980 8 ( %45.3) +5
0- J0 1 A 3 9 4' I (/*! /-
J0 351 & * 7! ' +I / FG +9' K' !
0 I0G 8B 6/ %
FG +9' + A . U 4! /%
. A9 > , W$ I P ... + # +MC VC : &''; , C ) 1
-١٤٩ -
05 74 " 8I > ( 1 5/ 8 & Qa
%& 0 A* ( ' 91 8 + & +* & > %
1990 8 4' ( %6.7) & " 1 ( ! 04! +095 $%
/ ( – ) ; 91 ' +9' ,
. ( 1 – " ) +95
:
א
אC
6
אAא2+;א−٢−٣−٢
1 > / /' 91 ( > 1 ! 4" H
(0 0& 9 C- ( 74 ! " > & D4! I.
. @ D/ 91
' +9 +95 1 ' c4 3=! 8 U%& 91 ( & 9 &
0 +0' (1 -! 84 " ; " 1 . 91 (! ! 8 ! 1 $! / (/*!
0- ! 95 91 +9 +9' +9' ! 4! H
!"& /
: / H% !"& / . +' ; (1 ( M)
Y +M =C+I + X
. W y :,
. 1 A M
. H- C
. 1 A X " I
: W / $%
Y =C+I + X −M
( R)
: K' (S) 1 (C) ;9 H- & 84 6 1 (!4 W ,
Y =C+S
(V)
: 9 - C+S = C+I+X-M : W ( V) ( M ) I =S+M −X
(a)
0! ;9 ' 9 + ' - + 8 : ; !9B ( C 7' 7 ( ! 9 %
& '
F=M−X
-١٥٠ -
(S)
: (/* -!/ / (a) 8 9 %/
I −S =M −X = F
(b)
$'0 (/*! +' (1 %5 " ! $%
( C 7' 7 ( ' + ,& 7 W & 1 +09' A > ! +9' & " 4 %
. -5 + (1 !9B
. " 4! + ' H% 91 +9
A9 H% ' J! +' ' -& 95 ! (! 8 * D /
-! 84 . ( Q – " – 1 ) !B =! 4 4 &
7 += ( ' & 8-! 7 8 -% I- 8-5 'B
.
(١)
-' ") 8/ J 7 C!
>0& 0/ 0!4 +0 ' A9 , %& 6K' 95 F% 4!
0!/B +95 A > / A ! =B +95 K' + H ' >1B !/ 95
. C- ( 74 A9 9 &
0 0 70! 0!9B C B J H% 74 K' A!!
. 351 + & C- /9
.0 C !9B 9 89 K' $%
L!& & )9 8 %& 1.0 =.0 0! L5 ' B ! 1 89 (4' 1 J 89
! 9 91 J 89 351 & (1 ' B L5 ;E
+05 0- 0 0 +9' A ( & 91 +9 +9' A H%! 89
.9
+09' K' " ' + %-' 9G A - + & )9 %&
4 3 ! ! C %
A C . +9' ' L %
= !9B ( D '/ 4 ( '
:
א
א,−٣−٣−٢
+0 (* ;% ;9 ;9 ' 4 91 +9 +9' 4
DE 0/ 0 8" ( D I & '.G! + ? + A , + 5 , + 4M # 7 ! P C # W 7 : .//* , , )
. ; > ,I
-١٥١ -
1
0 0 ( + ? + A ) ;9 +9' ! + . (B
(١)
.
4 89 D/ ;% (B DE / ! 91 +9 +95!
A09 ; ' 4 (1 89 89 ! H
: 1 M QM
. ( + 6 7 (! -/ $%
M= m(y) : / $%
!
. = M: ,
( ( ) ( = m
. 4 (1 =Y
' , + ! I4 ' . ! !4 +' (1 4 . 4 (1 > ' + : (m ) ; (! 7 $%
D4
' + ∆M = m (Y t −Y o )
(M)
+0 0-& '. Mo +5 ! ' +! t +5 ' K' 8" ∆ M (1 + 9 +5 (1 ' " M t = M o + m (Yt − Yo )
(R)
: ;
0 ( J 4 > J !4 +' (1 4 & %&
( ) ; ( m
' 1 ! & <9 / %
J m
. 0. 0' +I 9 C <. ' %
89 C 4!
:
(٢)
(" (!4 ' = + ! 4 - 8 1 . (! Fe /G Q
. >1B FG L' ! (/
' = QJ
. /- J (/
' A = QF
0 0 C0 !4 +' ' 4 & : 1 M )&
J (!4 ( 4 <9& J 4 K' H% 91 ( C
! C ) J! M 7 X 2 L , 7 X R- 57: .//; ,7 , C )
1
.A > , I , C 6 _C , ( 7 . ** > , + 5 , LH @ , 7 % : .//* ,+ , )
-١٥٢ -
2
+0 / 9 A $%- 7 ' ! - A
. -& ( ' 0 D0 +5 (1 4 ' E9 <!1 "/ &
: 2 B
X= Xo (1+r )n
( V)
. +5 - ' > = X :,
. +5 ! ' > = Xo
. A (=r
. =n
: / +9' D / H%!
F = M O + m (Yt − YO ) − X
(a)
70 = ! 9 %
' ' ;9 9/ - +95 $%
F=I-S = M-X
( S ) : / +1B !/ / (F ) !9B ( D C 7'
10 $' (/*! +' (1 %5 " !
(1 !9B ( C 7' 7 ( ' + ,& 7 W & 0! 091 +09 +9' ' D/ +9' )! 4 %
. -5 +5
.+' ' 4 (1 A H- " ! ! ( VN) 8 (9
: ( RPPS – MNOP ) +5 (1 91 +9 +9' A - +95
-١٥٣ -
-١٥٤ -
091 +09 ' +9' ". ' 1. +9' 9 ( VN ) 8 (9 -
+0 (75927 )& +95 $%
c 1985 8 + (133807 )& :
(١)
-
J!B 9 H% W 2001 8 0* 0' 0!/ ; ' " A % , ;% . 4 ( 81 ;% / 9 91 +9
A05 1990 8 (%O,`) & " 1 = ! 351 8 (4 6)* %
2002 8 (%150) & (/*! 3I0' & ( 91 ;9 ' 9 A* ' 91
. 2002 8 ' + (98917 )4!
"0 (/! C! H* ! ") 1 89 & (٢)
. ? H- 89 89 +I5 FG
7B ' " !9 ( & F1 1 K' A9 " !
%
c! B ! (" ... " !.
. 9 4! ! +95 + & ;E (%28.9 ) !" 2000 )! W 9& 91 +9 +9' ' 9 c4 91 L4 A. ' U . U H
2001 8 (% 8.1 )& 1980 8
!0 $%
/ ! 2001 8 ' (%125 )4! = 9
c1 (/*! 5 + 89 H% H* 1980 8(%36) 4' (/*
. ( RPPa ) 8 (% NR) & ! $%
A9
(% 30.6 )0& 1980 80( %3.3) W 9& !/ A5 %& 1 > Qa
H0% (2002-1997) +05 (1 " ( ' 1 2002 8
: 9
0 3051 ]0!B > + 6 W ;% B 4 (1 A < .
( V)
1 H- 351' 9B J
01 (0B J +1 (B + & > /- J 351 . H-
(16) 0& 2001 8 ' , 91 8 ' 89 L5 . + . 17 I , + 5 , C # W 7 : 1996 , , )
1
.203 > ,1
- , H 7 MC : 2000 , ,
C )
2
.&';> I, W$ I P ..., + # VC :&''', ,
C )3
-١٥٥ -
0' 0 /* ' < += 1 C " A* 9 8 . 7B
(M)
. 2004 8 '( %4.6 )& 1990 8( % 18.6 ) 81. ( A9 0- D/ / & !
% / / 1 ' .I5 + & 09 04 F1 C !
% AI (/* ' 4 & -9
J!0! H0! F1 " ! "/ ! H! ' AI L& v & +*G
U ' +I5 ( / 1 8/ 9G J ^/
(/*! 1 K' 9! 4 ' I 81. ( "/! !/
34 ) 91 ' " ( ' !/
. ( ;4 G ) 1 ( 04 (01 "0 1 H- FG (/ ! 1 + 9 %/
0 U! H% D/ 4 (I /% 4 " C ' U1 "
/- 75G A9 9 6 & !/ ;9 9 ;% 91 L4
0 091 +09 +09' 9 , 91 L4 A. 4' I (/*! B ( NaMP ) 2001 8 + ( 75927) & 1985 8 + ( 133807+)
+ (M`aOMM) =! 4' RPPS 8 ' >1 + L5 RPPV 8 +
0 A09 09 H0% = + 8 & H% 6' H* . L5 (!4 , # +MC [6 4! # D5 % X57 # ^ : &''9, % ,C )
. ;/ > , & , &( , L 1 -١٥٦ -
1
"# א;
מאG)א(א
א
0 ' 4! H C1 91 +9 L ! &
0!"! 091 +9 ! / % 91 +9 ' 5 9 D/ 4 $%
/*
$0! D/ 91 +9 ! %
. 4 9G (/- ! D/ +g
. ! -! 9 > , U $%0
K0' % ' 5 - ' 91 +9 12 69 / 0- ;. 09 % 91 +9 D4 / & ! 9 B
A0 (0 0 *E ' - 8? ; (
4 C "/ +.! 5 *E $%
& 9G (/- ! 09G -/
<! +& - -9 5/ ' . B -9 <. 4 -B H%
0& 0 %&. - U<9 9 (/* - & ' -! c4
0 %0
U9 I. 9' ! +9 9& & 91 +9 !
: (9 6.
5 267 J! 7 C F /K'/ 2
M (2004-1992)
3/1 %
2/1 %
;
7
&
7
. 7
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.09
0.1
P,M
1.17
1.57
1.73
1.57
1.48
1.57
2.50
2.38
2.00
2.91
3.04
R,O
7636.8
7505.1
8564.4
10226.7
10731.6
10987.4
10785.4
11215.9
12217.3
12218.3
12200.4
MPMbV,V
285.4
251.7
254.0
281.5
311.7
312.7
270.7
306.3
700.9
406.1
417.9
aVP,P
3.344
3.963
4.395
4.446
4.617
4.924
6.784
7.296
8.053
11.842
12.708
MM,NRV
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
RPPV
P,Pb
M,S
MMV`P,a
aNO,V
`,VMR
RPPa
B
. 164 > , >5 1 1 : 2000 , ,+5
: 14 +C X
: 2003 ., B . 1997-1992 Z M C )
. B 2
. 2004 + M 23+21 > (2002-1997) Z 7 M C )
. www.Alalam.ekt.com 2ذ اC ﻡ، 2005 ، ﺕ;هEG! ا)! وﺱH!Gرة ا$% ا-
-١٥٧ -
: (aP) 8 (9 !
- L5 8? U9 I. ! 91 +9 & 91 +9 ! $%0
09 8 , , (%14.3 )(! /12/ & /3/ +5 (1
: & H% H* 2002 8 4' % 3 - ' !
70 0& 0 J
%0 % 35.9 %58 QM
. /* !B
: - /% ! +9 91 +9 ( (/* 9 QR
. +9 ; D & 4' 9G +4 C. FG (/
6!* Q
! 7 J? B C1 QJ
. ' 8 ' 8 9 4 C1 QF
. ( G /9 4 ) %' I9G (/* Q
J0 ( %1.87) =! + $%
U 9 ; ; A. . 5 +
0 09& 0& 91 +9 9& 4 ; @.
+0' (01 !" ! $%
B 2002 8 CB! 0.1 9 8 +9
U +!/ ! & 91 +9 ' 5 *E & 6 / J9 / U I- 44 - K' . &
!"' " %
/ 8 & = I. 4 !! (5! 8I
. ;9 (! (I- 89 5 U*E ! $%
+9 & 91 +9 ! 351 & J!B K' 84 & '.G!
0 ! B A9 & + U +/% ! 8 0
B ' + + (!4! . %60 "/ / ( 5 ) B
0
+1B +5 ' U U $%
+9 A !
0 0 $%0
& 45 ( - ) ( 8 +9 4 U !4
. A $%- U' U
+09 D04 0 9 <. 4 – '
(١)
: *E ' (" 91
F , HY 4 = : 1998 , ,3% _ )
. 181 > 1 – I#T P , C # 1 – 13 – 2M
-١٥٨ -
1
:H
אI()
א3
/–א١−٤−٢
A , 9G W *E %
D/
C0 091 70B 0 7 & *E %
L5 * 91 8
>0 0& 80" F1 ! ! /- 1 A 69 ( 69
09 0 0 B/ 91 = . ,B / 5 9 </*
T=
X +M
× 100
Y
:(M )! 80 0 ;0 ;0 ]05 ( ) ; C*/ 9 & * T : ,
.(91
X
M
9G W Y
0!" 2000 )! 9G W ! . 7!!
0/ , (2005-1980) +5 (1 @. (/*! 5 ; C*/ 9 9
80 %60.3 0& 9 8" 2002 8 (%75.4) -% =! 5 8" 1980 8 (%61.6) (/*
0 %0
RPPS 8 ' %OP "/ & 5 ! k! >1 + L5 2003
: (9 6.
. .A&> , W$ I P.... 4 =: .//A, 3 , _ )
-١٥٩ -
1
H &''' Y (&''9)./A') 5 7 J + "C /K. / 2
"C UC J! 1 C
UC J! 1 C
% +
% H B %H B
bM,b
45.3
16.3
1980
Va,R
RV,S
MP,`
MNOM
VP,V
MN,V
MM
MNOR
VP,M
MO,O
MM,V
MNOV
VP,`
MN,a
MM,V
MNOa
S`,V
41.6
15.7
1985
`V,`
45.8
27.9
1990
b`,b
40.6
27
1993
bN,N
38.8
31.1
1994
bb,R
36.3
29.9
1995
bR,b
31.7
30.9
1996
bV,S
29.7
33.8
1997
S`,P
26
31.0
1998
bb,M
30
36.1
1999
bS,V
29.2
36.1
2000
`P,b
31.4
39.5
2001
`S,V
32.5
42.8
2002
bP,V
29.7
30.6
2003
`P,P
Vb,S
VV,S
RPPa
OP,M
a`,b
VR,S
RPPS
*
B
. E + F , (2006-2003) Z D : .H ./A9 Y (./AK)./A.) Z C )
100 × H2000 Y UC /17 P 1 + 17 P 1 *
0! F1 ;9 C*/ ; (aM) 8 (9 ! @.
W0 (%VR,S) (/* H% . 91 7Y ! * ; & 1g
0 W0 0 (%a`,b) 8 % ' /* ' RPPS 8 ' 9G ' %
W 89 (%OP,M) ' ; C*/ ( /' 9G
A09 <0! A . W C "/ ' 91 7B $ $ ' W0 0 91 +9 9& ! 9 $ 351 2003 8 ' 81 5 F& /
80! 0 ! & * 5 ( ! $%
& ( % 60.3 )& 9G -١٦٠ -
&
(١)
.09G 0 0-9 ( %20-10 ) 4 ! ' ! $%
9 %& 91
0 0 0& U0 A9 & ; C*/ 9 L5 ' L.
0" A % ' */ <9G 4' ( ' / -1
80 3 89 351 ' !/ (/*! + A J C. <. '
0 0& J0- ( + ? * + 81. & > +0 C 69 H% ? 45 ( 1 & H% !9B
'0
" " C (1 4 4 <9 8" 351 & 91 7B & 6' c1 L4 ( 8 A4 ) - / <5& &
4' H% (/ + (70-55) ! )! A & 8 A4 <*
E H% ( 9 (! 3! ' 0 0 09 & / F1 ; C*/ 9 L5 ' >!/
(0 L05 ! 81. + C ' U U ! C
. F1 81. ! A' 0& 0 & 9G (/- ' ( H% & *E %
351 8? 0 0- 0 /- 1 & A9 9 351
0 A0 351 ; 69 9 ! 9 ;
(9B ( c1 ( J? C 4 /9 8 "
. c1 8 4 9& 351 & '.G!
:א
א01–٢−٤−٢
0 ;09 0 ' 9 351 ' ! I5! ("
0 0& ;E / 9 <! -9 !9B ' '
0!9B "0 J%09 0 89 *! ! (=
' ' 3I' 74 H% ' ! *E !9 WI 74
(٢)
.C 4
80 0 ; C*/ *E 8
9G W *E (٣)
MPP ×
: 6!
ادرات
= 9
" ! ر ا#$" ا%&ا)(' ا
5>,I , , #O 1 1 23 : 1990 : C ,N )
1
C M4 P C 2 1 C # 7 :.//A, , 5C)
2
. &9*>, 3M , ,
. &A > , 1 , 1 , 5 7 : 1984 , F3 , )
-١٦١ -
3
:(RPPSQMNOP) +5 (1 *E %
! (9
(&''9)./A') 5 267 # 1 3% /K& / 2
% 1 3% C
Mb,V
MNOP
MP,R
MNOM
N,`
MNOR
N,`
MNOV
N,R
MNOa
MS,`
MNOS
MR,V
MNOb
MR,N
MNO`
MO,`
MNOO
R`,N
MNON
RN,N
MNNS
VP,N
MNNb
VV,O
MNN`
VM,O
MNNO
Vb,M
MNNN
VO,M
RPPP
VN,S
RPPM
aR,O
RPPR
VP,b
RPPV
VV,b
RPPa
VR,S
RPPS
. E + F, (2006-1985): D J 1 : -١٦٢ -
!! ; * +!/ 9! ; 9 / aR/ 8 (9 ( 8? /B + ' 8% ! $%
' 2002 8 %40 9
(١)
. /B 1.
A9*0 0 09 0/ & (2003-1989) 8 % L5 $9 A
05/ 0& +*G A ( - 8 (/* 8
! ! +0 A0 L5 <9 (1 J +*! D/ - 8 %
. ' 5 I5 @ (1 A +& 8 %-! A4!
H0 01 F0G C0/ ' U. D/ 4 $%-! 8 & 1g +04 C0.& & ;E A4! + F& !/ (/*! 9
. +' ' ( ! %
/ '
:א;
א8א−٣−٤−٢
04 ! A U9 ( + / > *E %
!
8 5 ! 5 4' + I ( ; !
100 ×
*+, ا%* ﺹدرات ا
= / 9 : *E %
J
#$ ادرات ا
: (9 6! %
(&''9)./A') 5 267 1 /K; / 2
%1 C
bV,V
MNOP
bM
MNOM
SM
MNOR
Sa
MNOV
aN
MNOa
bV,V
MNOS
aO,S
MNNP
Va
MNNS
SS
MNNb
ba
MNNO
, , HY 4 = : 1998 ,3% , _ )
186 > ,1 , W$ I P
-١٦٣ -
1
aO
MNNN
bV
RPPP
`S
RPPM
bN,S
RPPR
bR,M
RPPV
Sa,S
RPPa
aR,M
RPPS
. E + F (2006-1981): D J 1 : & RPPV 8( % bR,S ) RPPP 8 (% `S )& *E %
L5 (aV) 8 (9 !
0 A.01 . 81 5 + 6 ' I (/*! (
+ !4 9 1 %5 8 U 4I (/* 7 ' !4 ;
U 0/
!0 0 L0 K0' 6 A !! 1! 4 + '
/%0! 9 . 1 ! ' U ( C 4 ( !
0 0 ? / H (%70 -%60) ! *E %
-' k! 9' ( 6I 6!* ; ! 4 (. <9G <! (
04 ' ( %12 ) / '( %12 )9 8 (! ' /
.(١) %20 *E %
9 k!' /B + /
:אאא8א/F−٤−٤−٢
6B . +9 ' </* ( / > *E %
!
</*0 +0 <09G "'*0/ /0 ( "5 *E %
/ 4!
0I%= 0/ 9& % + A / %& B ' 9
. C. ! *E %
L5 ' 6 H% & >1 : (1 .''×
3% 1 1 = 1 @
: / *E %
! (9
(2005-1980) 5 267 1 #O / KK / 2
%1 #O C
OP
MNOP
. 168 > W$ I P .... = : .//A , , _ )
-١٦٤ -
1
aN,M
MNOM
VR,V
MNOR
RR,N
MNOV
Va,M
MNOa
aN
MNOS
aS,b
MNOb
aM,O
MNOO
aO,M
MNNP
aM,O
MNNM
aM,N
MNNR
aM,N
MNNV
VO,N
MNNa
ab,O
MNNS
a`,M
MNNb
aO,N
MNN`
SR,S
MNNO
SM,b
MNNN
Sb,V
RPPP
aO
RPPM
aN,b
RPPR
aa,b
RPPV
aM,a
RPPa
SS,N
RPPS
8 A . E + F, ( &''* – ./A.) Z D J 1 : .( 51 ! +!B ) I -9 0 0
; ! 4 9& % 40 "/ (9 !
( ... c! k/ k
- ! ) 51 ! /* !B 7 ! 7
!. C +I5 ' !4 4 8 ( $%
7 A9
. 4 ( J9 12 ! %1 I <9G
:אא
א8א/F−٥−٤−٢
.''×
3% 1 1 -١٦٥ -
= 1 #O @
.0 +09 0' -I/* U9 & / > ! *E %
&
0' 0 01 (4 ! A +. ! *E %
7
+0 70B 0' (0! J' A ' J L' B '
: (9 ' *E %
J (" . < +
(2005-1980) 5 1 #O /K9 / 2
%1 #O C
bS,`
MNOP
`S,N
MNOM
ON
MNOR
`b
MNOV
`N,R
MNOa
bO,O
MNOS
bS,V
MNOb
`b,`
MNO`
`M,O
MNOO
aS,S
MNNP
bO,R
MNNM
`P,a
MNNR
O`,b
MNNV
Oa,V
MNNa
OR
MNNS
OP,S
MNN`
`O,M
MNNO
`b,S
RPPP
`N,O
RPPM
`O,N
RPPR
`O,O
RPPV
OV,`
RPPa
`S,O
RPPS
80
. E + F, ( &''*) ./A. ) Z D J 1 : ( ! ( + /* !B 7 ! ) /*
-١٦٦ -
7 8
! 4 ( 9 9 (aS) 8 (9 ( 0& 609 0 ' ( 9 ! +' (1
0 0" , !9B ! ( D A9* c1 L4 A 7 0 8 & 9& ! ( %SR,a ) 4 ( & . (%aS,S )6' =! MNNP 8! 4 (%`S,O )& RPPS8 ' 5 ! $%
:;א+א/F−٦−٤−٢
04 ( ! ! I'/ ? : -)! C 9/ ! &
. 4 ( U / U ( -' : "" *E (1 J + 9/ !
. ,! 9G W 75G ! Q
( M)
. / 9& & - < ! QJ
. !" ( D / ' ,! ! QF
A0 $04 %-' ; ! 4 9/ ! D & 9 ' )! 4 . 9/ ' % J? A ! (/*!
04! ;I (/*! 91 ! ( 1 ! ( 6' (5 A. ! &
. +! +
$%
-' ! ! B -51 4 (1 (
:אא6−٧−٤−٢
> *E %
! 9G W & !! *E %
604 0 H-0 FG A! ! ;% FG > -
0 H% ( (٢) . U. +!/ - ! / / 5 ! $%
/ /
: <. ' H% . F1 <* ; 4 (1 A4 +!/ !
.''×
1 UC = 6 2 4
: *E %
! (9
. FC W$3 1
% # )
1
36 > W$ I P , 1 , : C ,+ ,F , % 2 ,N )
2
-١٦٧ -
(2005-1980) 5 # 6 2 4 /K*/ 2
%6 2 4
C
aS,a
MNOP
RV,S
MNOM
MN,V
MNOR
MO,b
MNOV
MN,a
MNOa
aS,b
MNOS
aS,O
MNNP
aR,R
MNNM
aS,V
MNNR
aS
MNNV
VN,S
MNNa
VO,O
MNNS
Rb
MNNO
VP
MNNN
RN,R
RPPP
VM,a
RPPM
VR,S
RPPR
RN,`
RPPV
VV,S
RPPa
a`,b
RPPS
. E + F, ( 2006-1985) Z D J 1 : +05 (01 !0 $%0
L5 ( 9 <9 (ab) 8 (9 @.
0 0 0 > (% VO,O Q % aS,aV ) & ,! (MNNS–MNOS)
0 <*0 4 -1 (% RP )c1 4 ( 8
%K' !/ (/*! 0 05 ! ( % a`,b Q % Rb ) ! ] ' ! $%
8 K' F1
0 >0 ! $%
! / H% A . 91 -9 ' 9 ( 61
. 4 FG / ' FG
09 (! ' (" J!B 9 ( L5
C ' C 9 & 4 (1 (
. F1 81. ! A' 81. +
:
א;
מאG)
א+–;א٨−٤−٢
-١٦٨ -
091 +09 L5 > ' B ( (! * J !
/ -4 = 91 +9 " -1 ,
0' 0 %
-1 D 5/ -! ;9 ( 84 ( (/ 6!/
(M )
. 91 +9 @! 0 ! ;9 (! * J! 4
04 80 0 B 4 8 ! 4 7 $%
D & <9 8
. B
0 0 0 50 U 1 (/*! B / !
+09 * K' H% UI L5 69 )! 4 7 ' 351!
. 8 A (! ( ! (9 @ ? ' / C P 2 1
1 1 1 M M /K(/ 2
. 2004-1981 5 (100 = 1990 =B C )
M M 1(&)
(&)1
240
347
207
100
98
136
142
161
148
152
119
137
146
30
66
45
NP
132
160
161
100
107
143
225
276
248
250
218
255
238
40
83
71
NM
55
46
78
100`
109
105
158
171
167
164
183
185
162
133
124
156
MPM
MPV
OO
OS
2 2
***
2 2
**
7
93
63
60
100
84
67
99
114
122
111
84
99
64.8
96
110
108
MP`
OV
M M B
B
(.) 1
(.) 1
169
137
77
100
77
64
63
67
73
68
46
53
40
72
88
69
MPb
62
69
99
100
104
105
105
107
122
138
163
99
170
95
99
137
Na
103
95
77
100
81
68
67
72
90
95
75
53
68
69
88
95
MPP
1981
1985
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
RPPV
NO
MR`
MRa
RPPa
2 2
*#
1C
, United Nation International trade statistics , year book , volume II , 1998- 2004 . : ..''* 1 B M / 1 B M *
. 1 M / 1 M **
. 1 M × 1 B M / 1 B M ***
. B , P C I @ , 16
: &''K , `# , , "7 )
-١٦٩ -
1
#C =M +$ 5 " @ M ` 1 1 M F ).
. C
. M Z O F =B C Y 1 M ` )&
+' (1 351 69 B 4 8 (a`) 8 (9 ( ( / U!
U J%!% ' %1 4' (1997- 1990 ) !( % 25) !! 351 ,
, ) RPPa 8(124) 1993 8( 67 )6 k! , (1990) DB ' (2000 8 4' %Ra !! A5
80( 163 )0& 1990 80( 100 ) 69 4' B 4 8 !! & ! $%
351 DB ! 4 ( % 70 Q%63 )!! A5 ; 1999 8( 170 ) 1997
. RPPa 8 ( % R` )
0! 41998 8( % 83 )!! (185) & A5 6 / 4 8 ! /
04 8 / . 2000 DB ! 4 (% 69 )!! ; 2002 8( % 69 ) 1990 DB
& H% A9 1994 8( 276 )6 k! A5 6 ! /
8" 1991 8 10 8 " ! %5 A*! 1 – " A
!! 1994 8! 4 (% 58) !! ; 1997 8 (218 )k! / 4 8 351
. 1994 8! 4 1999 8 (% 38)
80 100 0 3051 & ( ) ' (! ( 69 4' 84 <!
;09 (0! * D/ %
(% 54) !! 351 ; 1997 8( %46) & 1990
& 0 @ ? ' (! ( K' ! +' (1 8 A $%
& (% 31)!! 351 ; 2002 8( %69 )& 2000 8 (100 ) 351 ( %
(١)
. %MPP ! @ ' @! ! $%
H% @ ? ' ( !
0 B J? B" 91 +9 * & * 0 / . L5 & -9 )! 4 351 & -9
. ' +! 7' 8 0)! 04 0 0 ' = ! ! %1) (! ( B U
0/ 3051 0 ' (! ( A5 4' +9 89 ' = %1) H0
0/ 09G J0/ (4 / + (/ J/ ' A0 0 0' = 51 !! B 4 8B 5
, -C , 16
, : C ,+ , - )
. K.K > , 3M
-١٧٠ -
1
80! '0 (0! ( J. D 1 (! ( J & <9 8 H%.-!/
. ! +4 D4 1 (! ( ! / 4
0 0 k! , DB ! 4 351 & 69 1 (! ( (%122 )k0! H0% 0! A05 8" (99 )k! 8 ' L5 & 69 8" 1992 8( %67 )6
! .1997 8( %84) k! 351 ' (%111 )& 8 ' 351 8" 1995 8
0 + / , (2000- 1991) 8 ' @ ? ' / (! ( K'
+ / , . (% 4 , % 1 , % 23 , % 16 ) !! DB ! 4 ( . MNNP DB ! 4 ( / ( % Ma ) D0B 0 0 !/ (2004- 1994 ) 8 ' + / !
80(% 16 ) !0! .051 80" ( % Vb % Mb % MPO % MP % MM %RR
(/*0! 0- 4 5 L5 J!! H% . RPPa 8 (% M`) 1997
0 -05 0/ 0 !/ / / 4 ' 8
B %
6 ' I
RPPV 80 0 + Vb ( ( ! + B . % Vb !! + ! MNNP DB ! 4
609 80" 1994 8 ( %161 )6 k! L5 & 69 9G (! ( /
0 %
RPPa 8 (MPV% ) 1997 8 (%119 )& 351 8" A5 8 ' 351
&. $0? ( D / (!4 ! . *E %
& +9 * !
,0 44 ! B 4 ? ! 4! WI
. -/ + A 351 / 351 A +9 4 ! D (1 +9 +1 J/ 4 /
: (1 . MPP×
B 4 8
Q 9&
=
(M)
4 !
: (9 ' ! /
د1t%23 اt!H ﺕtآ ﻡ%,t اt! ق ا^وروtرة واt%" ﻡt! رt;2! أt د1t%23ت اt2) دور ا:١٩٩٩ ،
tX ﻡ، ﺹ،
! ا1
٣١٧ ص،
رHAﺱ3 ا،!)ﻡ$ ا
ار ا،ي1ا) وا
-١٧١ -
-١٧٢ -
( 2004 – 1991 )5 + /48 / 2
M +
(;) – (.)
/ 1 B M
(;) 1
B M 1 !
% (&) 1
(.)
C
132.2
3305.8
104
3438
1991
147.6
2952.4
105
3100
1992
155
3098
105
3253
1993
217.8
311.2
107
3329
1994
965.7
3162.3
122
3858
1995
111505
3027.5
138
4178
1996
1568.1
2488.9
163
4057
1997
32-
3208
99
3176
1998
1584.5
2263.5
170
3848
1999
253-
5072.6
95
4819
2000
45.3-
4535.3
99
4490
2001
RM,aQ
aa`O,O
MV`
bMVb
RPPR
RMaQ
VS`P,R
Na
VVSb
RPPV
SaaM
RPMa,N
MR`
RSSN
RPPa
united Nation , statsical , dorty – jourth issue year book 2005 : $%0
& +01 H0
0/ 80 0!9& / ; ! (9 <"0! 0 (1568.1Q155) 0! 0 ,0 0 U 0 0. 0/ J/
/ J/ & (45-32) ! +1 H
/ (2002,2001, 1996) 8B
. 8 A +9 * ( I1 !/
0 '' . ( !! +!/ % (! ' = !
0 (0! ( %K' . 44 4 (1 (! " (1 -& /
I*0 +04 , W L)! $%- 44 (1 H% ' 0- 01 0 0 6 ( ;% & C. 44 (1 ' + $%
. +
+04 +05 ' (! ' = , & ;E +"/ ( H
&. 0'1 09 ' = 9 (! = 4 > ' . +5 '
. H- FG (/
' B =! ! ' C -١٧٣ -
!
435 )6/2. / 0 123 . ,-
אא:א:א!א*) .!
$
אא:)*+א*,$4א:א!א*);7LMא1
#א"
א
! .
-١٧٤ -
! 435 )6/2. / 0 123 . ,-
0- 0 0 B /* . ' /E L9 < 8 &
/0 > -9 9 ; > ! ! ( 8
8I > ! ( - ) ( 8 ' / H% . >1 -9 A0' ' 1 +! 9 1 9 ! H ' $%0
-! 8I A. & ( / (
0I 0 W! 1 3! ! (! (B (/ ' I4 +! 8 /
. / 7' & 9G +4 / + 351 / 0-' 1 J/ / '= cI1 &. / = / A A09 U 04 U 50 / 9 1 W! A. ' I 7 !
(0 *! +4 89 ; 8-!/ 8
( / (1 /
0& 0'= cI1 ;E. '= = H% & ' ( ' / A9 @ C '= *E D4 c1
/0 0= +0 ( ' D4 $%
@ / 12! -.! / 9 4
0' 8
'= ! E! ' +!/ 9! 5 8- / J/
. / /* ! ( A. ! U !4 - ") / = 8-'
0G +9 > (1 91 +9 / ! - ! 8! 9 ! . H- ' 8
( 6 / FG ' 8- ( 6B
/*0 0/ / 5 ' 84 8 ! J/ / 6 %& 4"
" 4 ! A ' +4 D I'/ +! +9 ' !/ 9!
81.0 0 09 /* E 6 "! 9 C1 "/ /
. / / + 9 ! 1 <%= c4
0B %0- 4 J9G > A. *! J 8-' L. %- 80 6! +.! ,! "/! - (/ F1 4 E 0' ) / + /E *E (!4 6 ; & / E '
80 1 , H
(!4! H% ? +B 8 J? (
-١٧٥ -
A0 0 0' G <=& 2 + J x ;% 9 ;
(١)
. אא8א
0 0 ")0 0 !/ 6 ;% *E 7 89 D / ( &
0 A9 + 75 ,! %
( ' & / ' /*'
$' > & ;E (!4 ; ,& B 9 L!*& -9 . 6 U / U . 7 & / ( 9
+0 B 8
! ! / ! 7 %
'
+0 0& ;E0 / ! - 9 = U ' !/ U /- /
U ! "E / ! C1 & =.
0! H0% 09 !/ 8
! %1 ' / ) K' H% . FG
0 0/ 0 U 0 U0/ / ) ! RPPR 8 +B E* (Sa ) 4
*0. / 89 % ( 9 & 9 0 0 ( ; ! 4 & (aN) 8 (9 ' + !
: / !
( &''9) ./A' ) 5 # /K/ / 2
1C
C "% 1C
MVVNV
MNNV
O`Pa
MNOP
MVbNb
MNNa
NPab
MNOM
MaROS
MNNS
NaMV
MNOR
MabMN
MNNb
NbMM
MNOV
MSMPP
MNN`
NNVa
MNOa
MSa`V
MNNO
MPRb`
MNOS
MSONM
MNNN
MPbMR
MNOb
MbVRP
RPPP
MPNbN
MNO`
Mb`RP
RPPM
MMVVO
MNOO
M`MVP
RPPR
MM`MN
MNON
M`SSP
RPPV
MRMMb
MNNP
M``NV
RPPa
MRSSO
MNNM
, 1C P , C 14 7 4: .//* , +7 )
..A>,I,
-١٧٦ -
1
MORbN
RPPS
MRSRN
MNNR
)./A') Z D . ( &''K –.//K )./A. ) Z 1
UDC :
. (&''*
0& MNOM 80 0 C0 ( NPab ) A5 / ( aN) 8 (9 !
/ & ( RPPa ) 8 / 8 WI * MNNa 8 C (MV`OR)
.0? ' C (MVRRO) 4 4 + %
C (M``NV) k! RPPa 8 '
+0 0! 0 / ! / SP / 8 (9 ' . U (aa)
:'
1C M $C # C C 1
4 /9'/ 2
"B C C 2
5
VR,O
MN`P – MNbP
VV,a
MNOM – MN`P
VR,N
MNNa – MNOM
R`,V
RPPV – MNNS
RS,O
RPPa – MNNa
Ra,S
RPPSQRPPP
I
4 _
$ / 9' / 2
1
4
J L
2 1
: . M 1H 2
F + C C % X5
p n = p 0 (1 + r
)
n
A5 $ U!4 ' / ; ( ( SP ) 8 (9 ! *
0& A05 ( MN`P – MNbP ) 0 ! CB! ( VR,O ) k! 4' ( MNNa QMNbP ) +5 (1
0 0! CB0! ( VR,N ) k! C5 (/*! 351 ( MNOM – MN`P ) ! CB! (VV,a)
*0 / ( RPPV – MNNS) ! CB! ( R`,V ) & ( 6.51 A! 8" . (MNNa –MNOM)
+05 (01 CB0! (RS,O ) k0! 0 /0 ; ( & <e ;/ J/
C / K' CB! (Ra,S) 6! U !4 / %& . ( RPPa QMNNa)
' ! '/ ? + +' U !4 (RO,O) (/ ' 5.
0 !9 ! "2 35 A. (" & 9 ; . 9 '= = (0 04 ( ' 6"! %& ! ' / !
. (SM) 8 (9 ' + RPPS 8 *! 4 ! * / ( &''K – ./A. ) 5 C M 2 X
# C C C 1
/ 9./ 2
-١٧٧ -
"B +C C 2
VM
`
4 (
MO
(
RM
! (
Mb
8
UNDP , 2004 - Human Devlopment Report , PD , 152 -155 : 44 ( ' (/*! * / / 351 ; ( (SM) 8 (9 2 0 J 74 8 ( ' * / A5 ( *! - 84 >
04 5 ! ' / ; ( *! '
(M)
: J!Y . +5 (1 ' / ( L5 0' 3051 0- 80? 05 7 ' c1 (/*! 5 !" Q
. +1B +5
01 >0 0 ;0 A. J!! ' ' 351 Q
0 @0. (/*! H% D/ >1B 1 3! 9 + . I5 4! H%/ D1 (5B A. (5B ' > ' !/ L5 & ( MNNS QMNbP ) +5 (1 / ( L5 / %&
+0 L5 & > -! +95 L ! +' > ' 351 !1
0" 0 0" C0 (01 & / ( A9 K' . / !
0 0 9 J!! !1 > ' 351 & !0 L5 + B ! 351 -4 ' / ! A % ; A9 -*
$%0
0' @. (/*! "g - +B 8 (I 81 ; * ' -
(0 ' +"E ( (. / ( ' D 351 & H% ! +5
. H% <. U 4 . ' ( $%
= / :
אאא−١−١−٣
0 0I ( & +!/ 9 & /!* + / ( 8 . +9- +' !1 $ / ( (/* ' 8
– # #O 1O 16
: .//A , , +7 )
1
2 B IC P C 1 M 2
J! M
K); > , .//A/.. / 9)K , I , 2
I
-١٧٨ -
' 1 / ] WI 1 *E I4 '/ (
0I! / . 4 " C (1 / ( ' 9 = , ! " 4 " C ' + ! 8" B "" 4 '
0/ 80
B 30 0 ' . ' 5 / ! +' !1 351!
: / -١٧٩ -
: 7).).).);
A09 0' I0 !09G H D/ / ( 8
!1 +0B 0' +I0 9 L.B! !1 ") / 89 U") "/
. 8 (/*! / ( (/* ' U U J A9
+
0 0 (09 "! ' / D4 + A9 ' !1 +
D4
.M / !1 ( 81 ( : 4 / ; A9 ' !1
: 7 2
)%
801 ( ' 9 / ] / WI -
0 *0 MNOM 80 CB0! (VN) & ( 351! ! MN`P 8 CB! ( aO ) k!
(RN) 0& 351 ' 81 ( & RPPa 8 H! + IG
: (9 ' @. / RPPa 8 CB! (R`,a) & 6.51 A! RPPR 8 CB!
"B ( &''9 )./(' ) 5 267 # 7 2
4 /9&/ 2
7 2
1C
7 2
1C
VP,P
RPPP
aO
MN`P
RN,b
RPPM
VN
MNOM
RN,P
RPPR
aV
MNNP
RO,V
RPPV
Va,V
MNNa
R`,a
RPPa
VR,R
MNN`
RS,V
RPPS
VP,a
MNNN
United Nation, world population prospects : The 2004 Revision Department of : Economic , New york 2005 .
+05 0' U0 U0.51 (9 ' 81 ( ( SR) 8 (9 & 351 %
RPPS 8 CB! (RS,RN ) & MN`P 8 CB! (aO ) (RPPSQMN`P)
> A5 , ,G > / ( '4" 9 =
8-0! )0 C0-! (5B (4 +B 8 !9 "/ ! +! - '4"
. ; A. ( ' B
(0 ! , !1 C - / 12 A9 5
0 % ! 9 H% U4! U .51 CB! /RP/ (4 ;% . RPPS 8 5
١١٥ ص، => دﻡ، 9,: ;< ﻡ، "ﻥ0*ﺡء ا$ا: ١٩٨٦ ، وح4 ﻡ، "اﻥ/*0ا- 1
-١٨٠ -
: 7 2
)F
+0 8-!09 / % )) 6)! – ' / !1 ( C
I5! 1 !1 !9! (/ C %& - (1 + .'
$%0
L09 %01)! 0 !1 F1 / !1 ( K' %- H '
(١)
.( MPPP W ( ! I5 ( ) S 0! - (/ J. ! .RPPa 8 MN`P 8 U<! ' / !1 ( ! (SV ) 8 (9 '
(01 U I! 351 %
/ (/*! 351 ( ' / !1 ( / 6.51 & DB !! (% MM,O ) 351 ! =! , ( MNOMQMN`P ) +5
!0! RPPa 8 ' (SV,R ) & 351 ! (RPPS QMNOM ) +5 (1 U!/ U .
. DB % # 7 2
(9; ) 2
7 2
# O C
=B C C
C O M
2
./(' =B
7
Q
Q
`,`
MN`P / 8 % R,b Q
P,RQ
`,S
MN`O !1 @
MM,O% Q
P,N Q
b,O
MNOM / 8 aS,S%Q
V,SQ
a,R
SP,b % Q
V,NQ
V,O
SV,R % Q
a,MQ
V,b
8 (/ '= @
MNNV
8 +B @ WI
RPPM
RPPa / 8 9 I&
SV,R% Q
a,M Q
V,b
+ 8Y 9 RPPb
0 (0 0 0! ")0 - & 9! +
A9 ' !1 8?
0/ J0 / !1 ! 8 (/*! A9 %
-! C '4" 9
+
0! 01 ]0 WI0 /0 WI U 4' + > G
(Sa) 8 (9 $- %
.! 4 C ' / !1 ( ! !1
(0" (! ' / !1 ( ' G / ") > (9 %
& %&.
C0 ' U 5 (a,M) (!4 . ' U 5 (V,a ) k! / !1 ( RPPM 8 ' 9
** > , F 1C , – .//' , % , MB )
-١٨١ -
1
U0 .0 0' < !9G H C1 C ' < !9G H & * %
. 5 9 . 9 -! '4" 9 ( C1
. F 1C # 7 2
/9K / 2
C
R
"
-
`,`
O,`
b
MN`P
b,O
O,V
S,`
MNOM
a,R
S,P
V,S
MNNV
V,N
a,a
V,V
MNNa
V,O
a,M
V,a
RPPM
V,b
a,M
V,R
RPPa
1
( .//K)./A.)./(' ) B C ) : ( &''& – .//K ) D &''. – .//; C )
/ > , &''K B UDC &''K C )
cI01 09 0& > / C . ! !1 > ' ! A
U 0 0"/ .0 ' <' 5 9 . 9 -! 9
U !0 (' ? . < H ' 4 " / . +B 8 ( A (I
0' !01 (09 H% (/ . 5 < > ( 6 A 4! +!/ % D
. C ' - ( .
> L5 A' !1 ' +"E ( 8
!' + > !01 ( 351 8? 6 &. @. (/*! 351 / !1 ( ( +
051 ( 3! ' 6" U ! 4 (! 4 U 5 ( 6 & ' /
0 %
/ !1 ( ' U 5 8 ( "/ ; A9 W 7! . (SS) 8 (9 $-
( ./(9) ./(' ) 2 # 7 2
/ 99 / 2
( &''9 – &''')
7 2
) &'''
&''9
./(9)./('
7 2
&''9)&'''
./(9 )./('
M,V
R,M
!
R,O
`,a
I9
M,N
R,V
'
V,b
`,O
B
-١٨٢ -
R,`
a,S
(1 .51 (
a,b
b,V
/
V,`
aS,N
(1 (
V,V
S,`
R,M
a,S
(1 (
V,P
S,a
-
M,`
R,R
8
V,V
`,S
UNDP , 2004 – Human Development Report , PP , 152-155 : +0!/ ! 9 A ' ; A9 & ' / !1 ( L5 J! 0 0 +*0 1 ! < ; J9G +4 9 ' < 0' (%aN,M ) MNOM 80 (% aM,N ) MN`P 8 ' ( % aP,b ) -! =! , !B
!01 L5 & ;E ! $%
L5 A9 ' ,G 9& (١)
. RPPa 8
0 ! 3 ;% (Sb) 8 (9 $- %
/ !1 ( L5 ! (٢)
– MNNaQ MNOMQMN`P) 80 0' /0 0 WI J ' !1 . RPPM 8 +B @ WI MNNN 8 3?B @ WI (RPPa
9 & ' / !1 ( L5 J! & (4 / 7! & '.G!
B' C ' c1 (/*! ; A9 -! C 9 (
/ !1 U!9& D/ -! 8 * C ' 1 ,G ! U! 5
!1 ' ") (1 / ' U!9& U") " 4 . ' U 9 C1 ! 4 H ") &
% # 7 1
/ 9* / 2
&''K
&''.
.///
.//K
./A.
./('
D5
P,PS`
P,PSO
P,PV`
P,Paa
P,POP
P,POV
MSQMN
P,MM`
P,MbS
P,MSP
P,MSP
P,RaN
P,VS`
RPQRa
P,MRO
P,MON
P,MNS
P,MNS
P,VMa
P,VOO
RSQRN
P,MPV
P,M``
P,MNa
P,M`P
P,RNa
P,VVS
VPQVa
P,PbR
P,MRM
P,MMb
P,MRM
P,RV`
P,RVb
VSQVN
P,PRP
P,PaR
P,PaN
P,PbS
P,MVV
P,MRV
aPQaa
P,PPa
P,PM`
P,PRP
P,PM`
P,PSN
P,PMR
aSQaN
( &''K – ./A. )./(' ) B 1
: )
7 4C 2 # 5 # , c H% P # 7 =M % 7 1
)
$3 F , C
D# # C "% 2 L 1 #
267 , = P #
267 C
D# # C C M _$ [.9 )K/ ] 2 # C 2
. C =5C # D5 _ C J C
-١٨٣ -
1
2
. 1
UDC .//K – ./A. )./(' B C ) : . &''. )&''' D &''. – ./// C )
. &''K B UDC &''K C )
0- +0B 70 0 ! WI 9 & ;E !1 L5 4
. " 7I * > ) +B +4 C.&
351 & ( / %& ' 4 4! ( (5 & : (4 / - '
3051 0' 8
1 > & '.G! %
7! $ ' & 4! ' (4 ' U
U J ! (5B ' ( A. ' (
. ' + ? +' & F H%
: 1#)&).).);
!01 +
0 ! / ' -
, " ! ' +' +
)
' > D4 . 9 ( 9! ! +
+'
D4 A9 ' ' +
(9 "! ' /%
(١)
D4 + 81 / !
. 81 ' (
: 7 1# 2
)%
C ' / (1 ' 4! J D4 ! : ' 81 ' ( ! (S`) 8 (9 '.C)! W J.
"B % # 7 1# 2
/ 9( / 2
7 1# 2
C
MS,V
MN`P
O,R
MNOM
b,P
MNNa
a,P
RPPR
V,OS
RPPa
V,Oa
RPPS
. .//A D ./(/ D ) : &''& B ` UDC – E + F )
- The world bank 2005 - world Development indicators pp , 44
2 I4 ) .//K , J54 CM – AA > , W$ I P – : .//; , % , MB )
1
. , .*9 > , 1 1C , #O
-١٨٤ -
0& MN`P 80 CB! (MS,V ) 351 81 ' ( ( S`) 8 (9 801 ' ( !. RPPS 8 CB! (V,Oa ) & ( 6.51 A! MNNa 8 CB! (b)
0 0! (! < ( 4 ( ' 6"! %& U9 U .51 '
/ 8 ( (/ U 4 / RPPS 8 ' CB! (V,O ) k! , 8 ' 351
(١)
.- (/ ' CB! (V) k! , / <"! RPPa 8 H! I& *
(10 0 ( CB! N > CB! /MP/ ' ' ( %
k!
' 81 ' ( (9 %
(SO) 8 (9 $- %
CB! /MR/
<0. 0 H0% 05 / ! ' (" 4 ( ' 6 ( !0 0-' A05 4 9 J?)' . ( H ! ; J/ ' C1
0' /% MO,M / 0! /%MbM/ ' ' ! $%
=! , "/)' /bS/ )! /
0' 81 ' ( (9 %
(٢) . RPPR 8 /% V,M/ ' 9 8 /% Mb,O / . ! L5 J!! L5 ( 9 H
"B &''& # 2 # 7 1# 2
/9A/ 2
7 1# 2
7 1# 2
MM
a
MP
V
MP
'
a
B
O
S
I9
N
(1 (
V
/
MM
(1 .51 (
`
(!
O
(1 (
N
-
N
8
b
J=
The world bank 2004 – world Development I ndicators . PP , 38-41 : 0 4!0 +05 (1 (5B ' ' ( 351 & (4 / - '
1 * ' 9 L4 -* & (/*!
. 5 B 1 * C ' 1 U U*
: );).).);
- The world bank 2004 – world Development indicators . PP , 38-41
The world bank 2004 – world Development indicators . PP , 38-41)
-١٨٥ -
1
2
"# U 6!/ / ' +"E ( +9- ' !1 & '.G!
6& 9- - ;% / ' - )* "# 6 9- ;% / ' -/ . L9 8 G '= C1 ' 8
U +
$%
%1 DB %
-0* 0 + +5 1g / & 8-& / / (4 )) -)! +9- C
(١)
. (( 9 / ' I G !?! (B . 1 +9- 91 +9- : +9- ! (٢)
. (I G !?! + +5 ! / (4 -)! )91 +9- C
+0 0 (1 >1 & 4 9 'B (4 )) -' 1 +9- (٣)
. (( E I G 4! H%
U* +9- "/ ' & C +9- /* : 7 )"%
80 (0! 6 / D4 U ! "/ U . "/ . & C +9- 8 !
C0 ( RNS ) k0! 9- & RPPP 8 ' 1 +9- @ WI *. MNNS
. % R,M /* 80 /0 8 WI J ' ! +9- A (SN) 8 (9 3
/ % c 7* C 7* ' (9 %
& %& MNOM
0"/ 0 / 7* C 7* ' / / !%9 ' ( % S,R % S,b % MP,R % b,` ) 0-' ' +9- ( k! , / U !%9 '
(٤)
. J J0? 0 (/ 8. -/ & 9- 7* J%9 J! > /
. 9- $9 A9* 8 G E
04! 0 . -& 9- J%9 ' !/B "B ; A* 5 / 4' ' +09
% ' -)! + J& ' / + / 4' '
( %V,bQ% S,b Q% a,b) k0! U ! ' H ' ' +9- ( / , 5 +
. ( (! / + +9- ' 4! H%/ J C # F : F # , # >D7 : .//& , 3 , )
1
. K; > , I , C 4 ,
. K; > , W$ I P ... , # >D7 : .//& , 3 , )
2
. ..K > , W$ I P , : .//; , % , MB)
3
: 6
267 # 2
F )
4
/ C
267 V# – C
267 V# J! # = # 2
.'' × _ "C # V#
-١٨٦ -
+09- @0 0 0! . (bP) 8 (9 *' RPPP 8 1 +9- !! /0 +0 0/ ' A9' U9 * / ' ! 1 +9- & 1
0' J ' / ' - !%9 / / 7* C ' <"!
. / 4 % +
0' /0 + ' / !%9 ' / ,! %
(1 (١)
: / U/ +4
: cC $ 1V# – %
' k! , / U !%9 ' "/ 7* C ' ! : 7* C '
0- 90- 0 k! ' -/ ( % RP,R ) /* (VOOMOP ) RPPP 8 -&
; ( VPPSMV ) +9- ' / H%! -/ (% a,b ) ! /* (O`bb`)
0-!4 -& 9- ! L5 ' J! / / 9& (% MS,b ) ( 8 / + ' & MNOM 8 ' / !%9 ' ! 0 L05 -01 -4' =. & '.& +!/ / + 9 RPPP
0' ! B ! & / J%9 ' ( 7* C ' (9 9 /
. U9
0 0/ J!0! / -!%9 , " ! / ' ( : / '
0 k0! 4 @4 c1 (/*! -' L4 -' = 5 F1
0- 9- k! -/ (% S,S) /* (ba`bR) ' $%
& 9-
0' $%
' +9- ' ( k! H% 9 -/ (%V,V ) /* (VOO`V )
. (RSONP ) ( ; -/ (%R,R )
: cC 4 1V# )F
80 9- k! / + -/ , B !! +4 ' )
-& ' k! ! -/ (% SO,M ) /* ( ObVMP ) +4 ' RPPP
'0 k! H%! C (V`a P k! -/ (%b,N ) /* (bSSV ) 8 H%
0! (B 0/ (/* -9 %
' / (%`O,R ) /* ( `N`S` ) +9-
+ D % J& 7* ' ! / . / + '
$%
'
(٢)
+ +9- ( k! / + ' c . .' > &''' # 7 ` UDC – &''. , E + F )
1
267 V# = # 2
: 6
267 4 2
F )
2
.'' × _ "C # V# / C
-١٨٧ -
% b,` % b,N % `,M % `,R % `,a % O,V %`,V ) RPPP 80
00 0
00 0
00'
Q % V,a ) U !0 ' H ' ' +9- ( / J ( % V,` %S,M%b,V
J ( % R,V Q % P,R Q % R,R Q % P,b % a,M Q % V,MQ % M,a Q % M,S Q % b,a
.
: c C M 1V# )h
0 ! !4 ; J!! U/ U4 -* + ' J ' !
( NPN`V) RPPP 8 J ' & ' k! , -& 9- - 9-
(NPNMM) 8 H% - 9- k! -/ 9& ( % R,b ) ( ;
. -/ 9& ( %R,b) ( . ./A. J 1V# / 9// 2
1V# 2
% #
#
2
2
% 4
% #
4
N,b
MS,`
NNNaV
M`aMOM
7*
V#
# b,` +
`aRVO +
MP,R+
NVbaN +
b,O
Mb,V
SbPPO
MaNbS`
7* C
M,aQ
R`PMVQ
MM,O
MP,S
RRaVaP
MN`VR`
J
P,M +
NSM +
MM,M
MM,R
NPP`R
NMPRV
c
V,b Q
RaaOV Q
O,P
a,N
bPOSP
VbRb`
+
P,N +
aR`a +
MM,V
R,P
bMNMa
bbMOO
%
a,b Q
M`bMV Q
b,O
R,`
ROOPa
MMMNM
S,b Q
VRVVS Q
N,N
a,N
bPbN`
ROVbR
J&
S,b +
NMVP +
MV,P
Ma,R
OSONaV
NSPRa
/
S,R +
MORNM +
MM,V
Mb,P
V`bVO
SSNRN
R,` Q
SaS` Q
MR,P
N,b
RabMO
MNMbM
<
R,b Q
NSNN Q
O,M
S,`
VPRSN
RPbbP
P,a Q
MNVO Q
O,V
`,N
Vb```
VaOVN
D
Mab,R Q
OMNNS Q
`b,R
M,O
ORabM
abb
+4
Mab,R Q
Q
MP,O
MP,O
NOPR`S
NOPR`S
4 >
. L 2 1
F .9A – .K/ > ./A. : &''' J 1V# /*' / 2
1V# 2
#
2
# 2
% #
% 4
%
4 #
V#
.'' × _ "C # V# / C
267 V# J! = # 2
-١٨٨ -
, ,
,
, +
+
,
,
,+
+
,
,
, ,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
!"#
, ,
,
$%"# &
, ,
,
"'
,
+
,
,
()*#
, ,
,
&"#
,
,
,
+#,-)"#
,
,
,
.
, ,
,
/-0&0
, ,
,
&123"#
. &''. # 7 ` 2 – E + F : : 7 )"CH
+9
." I G !?! + +5 ! / (4" -)! C
80 . ;Y E +9
/ -)! * 4 " C ' ! F1 & cI01 091 +9- 89 ( " ! ' . ' 9 '/ @5
4! H% . 91 +9- D !. g A. J '=9 8- 9-
'0 /0 0' 91 +9- ! (B 9 /
90 (*0 0! = '.& -91 ! (1 9 !
+09- +
0 D04 0 ' 9 ". F1 (1 ' (B
0! 0' <0e ;0/ J/ %5! 8 4 = ! 1g / 91
0/ / 4 =! 1 ! ! $%
. 4 . "
0! $%
<(! 4 = 8 8 & . (!4 ' +9- +
D4" / 0! + 8 / + . /. %
' ! & >
0 ! & 9 '= 8-I1 3! 9- 'B ! 7
(١)
".91 +9- +
D (9 ' - 4' (* -4 / '
:2
אאC8א−٢−١−٣
0
! . 8
,! "/! / / '=9 L 0 69I $
, / '=9 L ! ! (1 +
$%
' ,!
... , C # F : F, # >D7 :.//&, 3 , )
. K;>, W$ I P
-١٨٩ -
1
0 ! ? / L H% . >1 -9 6! ") 6' "E ! -9
. - ( "/ - / (/*
I $9! U (B ' ? +9- I* ;. A &
U 0' U0I! (/*0 81. @! ' / 95 +
-
+ /* 71
60 W 7 ' 1 A* / / + / . 6-9 J
c0' '0 - 9 -! 7 H + 9 ;Y J%9 . / '=9 8 , - '/ (
0 +! 9 - 8 ' & 9 ( 3! / %&
0& > 0 / '=9 A ! ,& ' " - "/ &
. -% /! 9 J 6 W $ A9 ! WI
J0 /0 A0 (01 0 ' / '=9 A ! +45 $%
' 84
.4' '
k0! ' G 4 '=9 cI1 <. 3! <4& ! <! (! /
+*0 A0! 0& "& 4"/
/MOSM`N`M/ ! -9 .B . / '=9 cI1 3! , ! '
: 1V# F P ).)&).);
8. J 7* C 7* ' MN`P 8 ' 9 (bM) 8 (9 & %&
8.0 0! . 0 0/ 0 ( %MO) (/* - ' 4 / ( aa,PM %)
0 (% aR,Sb ) (/*0 - ' 4 / (% MS,Na ) / '
0 0 %0 4 / (% O,bb ) & 8. c ' & . 4 - (/* 4 / (% VM,VN)' ! 8. . 4 (% RR,NV) ;
. B ," ' ' / / & * %
/ (%Mb,SM)
! V# 2 C 1V# ^ J C P / *./ 2
( &''K – .//K – ./(' ) B
% C P
! V# 2 C
&''K
.//K
./A.
./('
O,`R
MP,MR
MR,V
MV,R`
P,Pb
P,MR
7* .8
&
"%
V#
MR,`
MM,NS
MP,MS
N,OS
N,`V
MO,PR
7* .
RR,bN
RM,SO
RP,O
RP,ON
N,NN
MO,SP
J
O,bR
O,OV
O,N`
O,bb
RR,MM
aP,Na
c
`,OR
`,N`
O,M
O,Mb
S,aN
MP,Mb
$
-١٩٠ -
a,Na
S,aR
b,M
b,MO
M,Ra
R,VP
%
S,`
S,Mb
a,S
a,ba
M`,OS
VV,Pb
`,M
b,S`
b,a
b,Pb
V,RN
b,MP
J&
b,V`
`,aR
`,a
`,aV
MR,bP
RV,VV
/
a,a`
a,PR
V,N
V,O`
MP,SN
MN,bR
M,`b
M,NS
R,R
R,RR
V,PP
S,SS
<
a,`R
a,a
a
V,bN
R,PM
V,`V
a,PM
a,Rb
a,N
a,`N
M,PR
M,NP
D
P,VO
P,VS
P,RO
P,Rb
M,PP
M,Ob
+4
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MPP
MOS,MO
4
&''K– ./A.) B UDC K/& 2 ,&''' D :
(
, 8? U !4 / 7! A 4! %& D (/*! A %
= 8 MNNa 8 '
. / ' 55 = 3!
J0 7*0 C 7* ' . %& U 4! 6 / A %
4! RPPa 8 '
04 / ( % Mb,S ) / ' . 4 / (% aa,M)
7!0 . / ( VP,O ) ' ! / (% O,b ) c ' . /
@0. (/*! = 8 A %
& 8 ? U ' 4 / W
. (1
0 0 810 0/ . (/*! ' / L > !
: 1 A! RPPa 8 !! 8 . Lorenz
09& 0 0' (/ ! J 8" + / '"/ J ' J Q
. ' / 9& ' (/ / ! J ' 0' + 0
0/ /0 / ! A / ! A J Q
. / bM/ 8 (9
04'B 0 0 / J / / J A. Q
01 0 ( / ! / / ! ! (" ;% ! 1 8!
@. . 6 / ` / 8 (/* ' / OABC …. IJ 1 !
C0 ;%0 (/*0 ' 8 OJ 1 . / 5 A (" 0 / / 6 @. . / ( A 1 ("' > ' (B A!
-١٩١ -
/ / U "/ / A / ( A 1 U ! OABC … I J (١)
.
U ( / A / O J ( A 1 U! OABC … I J
60 0 Gini Coefficient 9 D4 81 / A > D4
05 A0 1 ! A OABC … IJ (/* ! 6)! ? ( C . GC !
. OKJ ," & ( A 1
GC =
OABC...JO
OKJ
0 C0. U 0 0/ 0? (0 K0' M/R ;0 OKJ ," / O ≤ GC ≤ 1 : 5 ! U I U GC ( / . OABC … IJ (/*
/ U "/ / A / 5 ! GC ? ( / / 6 @. .
U ( / A / ! ( /
( 4'B ! ) A (/* U J
A. >1 ; (.' / A A ! (" +4 (M) 8 (/*
y = x βe u
: / !"! $%
. / J X : ,
. / / J Y
. I* ( U
. ;! e
Iny = β ln x + u : 9 ' 8? %1)!
∧
ln y = b ln x : 2 +4 9 -
∧
ln y = 1.8792 ln x : 2 +4 9 Minitab 0.13 81! b 4 J!
t=14.88 s.d = 0.1263
∧
y = x 1.8792 /
, F 1C , - – &''; , % ,MB : VC R- $3 2 R64 )
1
. 9&& > , 1 4 F , -١٩٢ -
: 2 (/ ;' A (/* 1
1
∫Χ
1.8792
0
1
dx =
Χ 2.8792
2.8792
0
=P,Va`VMObNN
: / ( A 1 ! S / %-!
S=
1
− 0.3473 = 0.15268
2
GC=2S
: / GC 9 ( /
= 0.305
/0 8 J / U! +!/ ? ( & B + 6! A 7' %
( ? U RPPa 8
. U 4! / A H%
-١٩٣ -
C P 1V# F C P /*&/ 2
&''K # C
C
!
X P,M`N
P,M`N
VV,PbP
P,MON
P,PMP
P,aMP
C
C
!
C "%
P,PS`
P,PS`
M,ObM
P,PbM
P,RRM
aP,NaP
P,SMb
P,MPb
P,baR
#H
V#
MPMS
VM
P,PPa
b`
Vb
+4
P,Ma`
P,POb
MSVa
V`
c
MN,bMO
P,MNR
P,PaS
`NS
aM
P,MRb
RV,VVa
P,RSS
P,Pba
MMVa
aN
/
P,b`R
P,PVP
S,SSP
P,R`V
P,PMO
VMa
S`
<
P,`bN
P,PN`
MO,PMO
P,aPP
P,MR`
RRSN
MRS
7* . P,ORa
P,PSS
MP,MbV
P,a`O
P,P`O
MVNM
MV`
+
P,OS`
P,PVV
b,PN`
P,SaN
P,P`M
MRba
RP`
J&
P,NS`
P,MPP
MO,aNO
P,``b
P,RR`
aPV`
RMO
J
P,N``
P,PRP
V,`VP
P,ORV
P,Pa`
ORN
RRS
P,NO`
P,PMP
M,ONb
P,ObV
P,PaP
`MV
V`N
D
P,NNN
P,PMR
R,RN`
P,NMV
P,PaN
O`N
VOV
%
M,PPP
P,PPM
P,MMO
M,PPP
P,PO`
MSSR
MVMSV
7*
Q
M,PPP
MOS,MOP
Q
M,PPP
M``NV
N`
L9
& "%
Y . &''K B UDC , 1V# F C ) : . L 2 1 1C M C )
. / J
(A) 2
. &''K # 1V# F P JCC
-١٩٤ -
:2
);אLא−٣−١−٣
0'= @0 @. -B H% B !/ / ; J/ A4 6' 9 I5 - / / ! +9
+' A9
0 /0 ' +"E ( WI ; J/ K' H%/ $' ! & <J -4
$%0
= ; ;E (! 12 U/ U 4 ! / +9
' 0 ' ( $%
8-' J/ K' % . 12 ' ") & (
. H% ? ; * H%! ! -
9
J0/ 0 B A09 1* '= *E 8
; J/ 809 0 ;% -' 9 '= = "/ B !
H0% ' ! . -91 ( + (1 / / = *! +4 3
0I 6 / . J!! ( / % 1 % / 89
. G !
A0 H-0 0 C1 , " 1 / ; J/ "E
C0 60 /-0 9 / / J! 12 - C1! 1
: I I' ," & A9 ' 84
(١)
. - C1! / !4 9
. [ Ma – P ] I5 $%
J = I'
. [ ba QMS ] ( ' c1*B I' . bS 8
(4 % c1*B (/ I5 $%
8. x* I' 0I' 1B C J ' / 84 ! ;% (bV) 8 (9 & %&
. 0 (1 351 - 8? A9 C U !4 (/* [ Ma – P ] ' =
. 4. 6% . + % 6
U' U 9 6/! ' / A9 %
( &''9 – ./(' ) Z # C +
F/*;/ 2
&''9
&''K
.//K
./A.
./('
./*'
D5
٣٩
٣٩V٥
٤٤V٨
٤٨V٤
٤٩V٣
٤٦V٥
% MaQP
٥٨V٥
٥٧V٢
٥٢V٢
٤٨V٣
٤٦V٦
٤٨V٨
% baQMS
٤V٥
٣V٣
٣V٠
٣V٣
٤V١
٤V٧
% "/)' bS
١٠٠
١٠٠
١٠٠
١٠٠
١٠٠
١٠٠
L9
..//. E + F, D (./A. – ./(') B C : . *(> &''9 E + F, D &''K C )
. &'9 > , F 1C , : .//; , % ,MB )
-١٩٥ -
1
,0 RPPa +05 (1 ' / ; J/ = " &
. RPPa 8 ( % VN,S) & MN`P 8 ' (% aN,R) [ MaQP ] I' / 8- + 4
RPPa 8 (% S`,R ) & MN`P 8 ' ( % ab,V ) 4' [ baQMS ] / I' (% V,V & MN`P 8 ' (% a,S) 4 4' [ "/)' bS / I5 ] / 8- +% !01 (0 L5 & ' = ! L5 A9. RPPa 8
. ! A 6!9 J? ' 75 U / U . 71 A %
' ( !
J0 ;0 J0/ 9 J ; 9/ &( ١)"! * ( % RS ) 0 [ Ma – P ] 0 ' 8
! / 6! / ("B J/ /
'0.G!( %MP) "/)' bS ! 8
! ( % bS ) [ bSQMS ] I' ' 8
. A09 0' (0 + ' ! +!/ G / 5 J/ D/ H% &
( % Mb ) 0 3051 ' '= G ( & / WI *
B WI * / . MNNa 8 ( % NM,S ) & MNOM 8 ( % MPb ) & MN`P 8
%
8? ( % `a,` ) & ( ' 6.51 A! ( %
& RPPa 8 / 8
(% SR,a ) ' ' ( %
k! 4' 8 ( 3! ' 6 A 4! A5 6 & 351
B 0' 0/ 0 0! 0' 6" U ! ' G ( / ( % SR,b ) /9!
U0 ;0 -!/! 7 ' U!/ U '1 8 ( C1.(R )( % bb,M) ' (%bN,R)
(9 ' +9- ' ," $ (/ ' / ' +"E ( C1
80 0' 8 > 4 ( ( ; J/ ! / ba / 8
. RPPV
2 &''; # +
F/*K / 2
C C
2
# C
O C
HY#65
.9 – *9
' ).K
7.1
63.5
29.4
8
14.6
b`,M
MO,V
4 !
a,V
SO,`
V`
!
V,P
SO,`
VO,V
UNDP , 2004 – Human Development Report . New york , PP , 155 -165 : 0 0 0/ ' ( MaQP ) I5 / ! (ba) 8 (9 @.
! (%RP )0! 4 ! 4 (N)0! > 4' 8 ' J
, 4B I # C F # 1# M
1 \% : ./A9 , =# ,=# )
. .( > , O , G O C
-١٩٦ -
1
0 0 0 0' I5 $%
& <J (9 RPPV 8 ' H% (%M,V)0! 00! > ' .51 4' (bS QMS) I5 . 8 ' 0 0 0 ' .51 4' ( 7' ' bS) I5 U . RPPV 8 ' 4 (a,O)
!0 . 04 ( A 4 A 351 A5 / ( J!! '/ – MN`P – MNbP – MNSP ) 80Y $ ' ; / 8- (O) 8 (/*
(RPPa QMNNP QMNOP
( &''K,.//',./A',./(',./*',./9') Z W4 # C +
C (/ ) 2
Microsoft – Excel 2000 UC F 7 2 ' ( aQP ) I5 ' / ! ' 351 ; A9 +' ,
0 0 0I5 U 4!0 0-& * !1 351 A 7' %
RPPa 8
=.0 0 & '.& 5 & ! & ;E %
9 ? U 1* (" ( MaQa)
(10 (09 0 !/ 8 ( & > ? / 8 1 1 ' ; ! 4 ' 7 %
H- 1 75e 4
80- (/* K' ! H- ( FG ( 1 % / / %& .4!
QMS ) 9 I5 8- C ' L +4 7. ' = /
!0 L05 0& 0 (5B ! L5 J!! H% RPPa 8 (% S`,R ) & ( ( ba
. c1*B
-١٩٧ -
:2
אGא+,אאF+א−٤−١−٣
0 C-0 0 = 65 ' FG "
" *! ("
4* % *! ' !. 1 A *! H 9 L!*G FG
'/ & H 8! 1 W! " (" -'
("B 89 ' , +B W! 1 8 5/ ; (" -' " 0 ( - (1 ' 1 84 + !. /
./- -!
+ *! +4 L , (!4 ' 8-!/ / 9 4 ! = 4 %1 1 - 7 B +/ cI1 ? (
0 0! 9 4 (9 ' (!4 9 W! & . i........ 1 ( c' I%= A
( F05 / 4) !/ 4G 4 81 8 (!4 ' / 4 (9 !01 05 "2 D/ ! 4' / L9 4K! 84 . 4 B H%
0/. L0 0 , / / (!4 ' "2 +9- '
04 $%
!. ( F5 / 4) !/ 4G 4 81! $%
& (
(/0* 0 %5 ,! + 8Y A! / *B J/ / 4e (01 0 H% C . ' + I' (/ ' ,G /% 5 4&
0- (/ 5 4G <9& ( +9- ' ) / $9 0! 0 0 "/ ' +9- ' ' += +' +9- A9 ,
0' 4G 4 ! 6 '/ ! ' " +9- '
.(١)/ 4& ' 81 40e people verse . V,PM W0! J0 81 8 4 $%
WI (
: 1 ;% /
. 8 C ' B 1 I5 7' L J / QM
. / (9 L !QR
( 80 D1) 1 5 6- 4G ! 9G !1 QV
. W! (! g +! & 9G !1 ( ( 8 ,
. 6- 4G ! ,G /% (/ + A Qa
.//9)./*; 1C 267 # C 17 #O 1 :&''', ,+)
1
.&'K>, I , , D! -١٩٨ -
80B F%0 coal and damny (/ F% (M)
J + (9 1 QS
0 0 ( -! 8 +' ' 8 ( '( R)+
. + <4!
0' !0 0!9 /0 (
91 +9- 4 <& ' 8" Qb
40 ' '/ ' ("5) 91 +9- ' / K' 4 8B
. ' /
4 9 6 ! +
* F1 I& (/ 4G ' A '
0 0& * 6 / . (!4 $9 %
. (" ! $9 1 . 7'
0 0" -5 C (!4 ' %& '= A 6 /
0- 01 %& C $%
= %&" / 4G . ' ! 0/ 0 "/ 9 C 8 c' / 4G +' / . +9 (
80
D1 ! A F5 ' + ! B " "! "= )1 ^
(V)
A0 4G 7' 35 8
D1 5 ! ' 9
0 ' ' "/ 4G @! / /& .51 4G +' /
. (!4 $9 "E (
04 4 -K' 1 / 4 -4 +!/ I5 8? & H% ' J! / 89 "E 5/ =! E! -4 8 J!! / 40 <09 0 ! ! %1 / ' ! A" ! ? 5/ = /
. /
0 %1E " -9 -!" 35 = -9 5/ = 9 J!!
0= 0/ = (I! + 4 > / 4 <9& & 9
0' !01 .51 .' "" ' . /
/ . / 4e + 51 4 & (I! $%
1 ;E . / +9-
40 ' A E 4 ? ? -/ +*! WI 3! !
."! " "/B
IM C I# H 4M # C P "M# FC 2 7 )
1
. UC - 4M C # X5 P M O FB, Z @ : P h$C W$3 25 )
2
, 3M #O , F, A. C 1, ^3 , "4 57 , #O
..//K, 3M
@ J! M , (&'&9)&''' )5 M 1 C C: &''. , ,S% o )
. &>, CH .&).', I, C4
-١٩٩ -
3
F%0 0 051 (/*)! 8 ' / A + / & ( (! '
H0 !40 0 0
9 C ' H% -.' 1 IG .
")0 0 0 0!9G J09 0 +5 8 ! 8 8" L.B
0 0! (!4 J H
/ (.' (!4 -9 D/ 7'g 9 ! 9
. / ; /
(١)
: . k %1) F% $%
8
( Linear ) 1 F%
Y = b0 + (b1 × t )
(Quadratic ) ! F%
Y = b0 + (b1 × t ) + (b2 × t 2 )
( Cubic ) !/ F%
Y = b0 + (b1 × t ) + (b2 × t 2 ) + (b3 × t 3 )
(Logarithmic) ? F%
Y = b0 + (b1 × ln(t ))
(Inverse ) D/ J4 F%
Y = b0 + (b1 / t )
(Power ) +4 B F%
Y = b0 × (t b1 )
ln(Y ) = ln(b0 ) + (b1 × ln(t )) Y = e ( b0 + ( b1 ×t ) ) ( Growth) B F%
ln(Y ) = b0 + (b1 × t ) ( S-Curve ) –S B F%
Y = e ( b0 + ( b1 / t ) )
ln(Y ) = b0 + (b1 / t ) . SPSS 10.0 for Windows UC Help (A ) J! ( . ) - h$C p $7% )
-٢٠٠ -
1
80 0 ;% 0 "/ / (١) ! J. F% (Holt ) F%
: (/*! -!
aˆ 0 = α 1 × t + (1 − α 1 )( aˆ 0,t −1 + aˆ1,t −1 )
aˆ1 = α 2 (aˆ 0 ,t + aˆ1,t −1 ) + (1 − α 2 ) aˆ1,t −1
: (/* %1) E! F% K' %I
aˆ 0.t = aˆ 0,t −1 + aˆ1,t −1 + α 1et
aˆ1.t = aˆ1,t −1 + α 2 et
F% 1 ! (٢) (! J. F% (Brown ) ! F%
: ! F% %
8 , 4' (! F% %
aˆ1.t = aˆ1,t −1 + aˆ 2,t −1 + (1 − α 2 )et
aˆ 2.t = aˆ 2,t −1 + (1 − α 2 )et
0. F%0 0 7B (.0'B F% 1 IG D4 81 8 0 . I0& +! 4 . WI ;% F% @ 1 ! 4!
:(٣) D4 $%
,0 F% ' * "/B D4 (M . A . P . E ) ! <1B : & ; )1
M . A.P.E = l / n f t =n1
et
dt
× 100
F% / += )1 %
/ / , F% 4 ' *E %
81
F% ! (.' 61 7
M . A . P . E < 10 % / 9 10 % ≤ M.A.P.E < 20 %
/ +9
20 % ≤ M.A.P.E ≤ 50 % / !4
: & ; F% . ! *E ( M . S . E ) <1B , # D$O Y C C : ! , : P 25 )
1
. ;K) ;; > F , . ;9 > , \5C I P : P 25 )
2
.;' – &/ > , \5C I P : P 25 )
3
-٢٠١ -
n
∑e
2
t
t =1
M .S .E =
n − k −1
/ ( M . S. E 6' / ;% F% 1 J9
(M . A. E ) 4 <1B M . A.E =
∑e
t
n
. (.' 7 F% / ( % / /
7B F% 1 /E F *' ( R2 ( r ! ( + /
. I&
4!0 IG . D4 F% WI ( (! ' 6 & +*G 9 : W! J 1
. Microsoft – Excel 2000
. SPSS 10.0 for Windows
. Statgraphics vers . 5.0
40G 04 0 RPMS 8 L I' J / 4 ' 40G ' ;% / 4e people verse .V,PM W!! ! H% !/
: ! 1 1 . RPPP 8 1 I5 7' L J / QM
.RPPP 8 ' " MPP (/ /% MPa,SN =! / (9 L ! QR
.RPPP 8 ' + (/ V,bb k! DB 9G !1 (QV
: (I! !B"4' 4G - ' A 9G !1 (Qa
0
F%0"04' RPMS 80 ' + (/ R,aR .51 !1: (B (! Q
. E! (holt)
01 F%0"4' RPMS 8 ' + (/ R,NR !1 : " (! QJ
. E! (linear)
0! F%0"04' RPMS 8 ' + (/ V,RM 5 !1 : ," (! QF
. E! (brown)
-٢٠٢ -
0' +0 (0/ V,bb k! 65 9G !1 ( : A! (! Q
. RPMS 8
;0 A09 (0" F% J 6B (/ F% south
F% 1 8 QS
. (RPPPQMNNS) +5 (1 ,G /% + A "4'
(0 0 4!0 4 9 8" / 4& ' 91 +9- ! 8 Qb
. ' +9-
8 L I' J / 4 $%
! / H%!
: WI & 4! 1 " . (I! !B"4' RPMS
: # P +
).)K).);
0 0& RPPP 80 0' 0 ( Mb,VR ) / & 4G WI *
RPMS 80 0' 0 0( Ra,Pa ) 0& (RV,bV )& ( RV,Mb ) & ( RR,Va )
(%aM,NP) (%Vb,O`) 4 + !! ; () (F) ( J) () !B (I!"4'
0 %0
!B (I! "4' (RPMSQRPP`) +5 (1( % a`,VR ) (%aa,``)
: (bS) 8 (9 6.
*
B 2D M#( &'.9 –&''( )5 267 1M /*9/ 2
C "% : M F
J
MNaON
MNV`b
MNRSP
MNPVR
RPP`
RPPO
MNObO
MN`MM
MNaV`
RPPO
RPSaV
RPV`V
RPMOM
MNOab
RPPN
RMPNa
RPONP
RPbbP
RPRSN
RPMP
RMbSN
RMaMN
RMMaO
RPb`a
RPMM
RRRVN
RMNSN
RMbaa
RMPNM
RPMR
RROVP
RRSPO
RRMaS
RMSPO
RPMV
RVaVR
RVPbS
RRbSM
RMNRa
RPMa
RaPaR
RVbRb
RVMSO
RRVV`
RPMS
. People verse . 3.01 UC F 7 1O 1 *
: +C C 2
# P O )&)K).);
( RPPPQMNNS )+05 (01 % R,`P / ; ( 351 A ( RPMS QRPMP )+05 (01 (%R,bS)0& (% R,aN) & (%R,VM) & (%M,N`) &
0' (0 %
- (/* ( ' !4 = 9 H% !B (I!"4'
-٢٠٣ -
' / ; ( ! (bb) 8 (9 !1 351 -4 ' (!4
. 8 ' / ; (! 4 RPMS 8 267 M 2 C 2 2 ( % ) +C C 2
1M /**/ 2
B 2D M# &'.9 – &''' 5
**אא
**אא
**
אא
*
א
א
א
א
א
٠,٠٠
٠,١١−
٠,١٣−
٠,١٥−
١,٣٢
١,٣١
١,١٩
١,٠٥
٢,٠٥
١,٨٩
١,٦٧
١,٤٦
٢,٥٤
٢,٦٤
٢,٣٨
٢,٢٤
٢٠٠٥−٢٠٠٠
٠,٠٨−
٠,١٣−
٠,١٩−
٠,٢٤−
١,٣٠
١,٣٠
١,٠٨
٠,٨٤
٢,١٦
١,٨٠
١,٤٣
١,٠٤
٢,٦٦
٢,٥٤
٢,٣٩
٢,١٣
٢٠١٠−٢٠٠٥
٠,٠٨−
٠,٠٩−
٠,١٨−
٠,٢٧−
١,٢٤
١,٢٤
٠,٩٥
٠,٦٥
٢,١٤
١,٦٣
١,٢٦
٠,٨٧
٢,٦٥
٢,٤٩
٢,٣١
١,٩٧
٢٠١٥−٢٠١٠
UC F 7 ( /. ) 2 1C J ( % ) +C C 2
F *
: D5 C I4 Microsoft- Excel 2000
United Nations , world Population Prospects : The 2000 Revision , Volume l : **
Comprehensive Tables , Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division ,New
. York , 2001
0& /0 C. +5 / / ( 351 9
+05 (01 0 0 0"04'"0 (Rb) & (RO) & (VP) & (VS)
%
(RPMSQMNNS) +5 (1(% R,`P) ("4'" Rb (!4 (RPMSQRPMP)
:( b`) 8 (9 6.
M# M 2 C 2 2 5 - 6 1C /*(/ 2
* B 2D
M 2
C 2
2
F
J
F
J
F
J
F
J
ObbQ
``PQ
VOSQ
RS`Q
Sb
Sb
`V
MP`
VR
aV
SS
OP
Rb
RO
VP
VS
&'.9 )&'.' 5 267 (% ) +C C 2
J 5 - 6 1C 1 *
Microsoft –Excel 2000 &''' UC F 7 ( K( ) 2 # [T = LOG 2 \ ( R .LOG e )] I4
&,(.A&A =e . +C C 2
=R . 5 - 6 1C =T : ! L
, 4 4 , C : F47 [ , C ) : VC h7 5 2 25 ( 3
&.* > , ./A* , I
: P 7 2
);)K).);
-٢٠٤ -
0& (CB0! R`,OM) & ( RPMPQRPPS) +5 (1 81 ( A5 A U 0.51 3510 0! ( ) (F) (J) "" (I!"4'( CB! VM,SM) & ( CB! RN,RS)
,G !/ (1 & L5 J! () (!"4' ( CB! RS,Ra) & U55
0! 0 & ;E J9G ' 9G !1 ( 351 (!
A0 (RPMSQRPMP) +05 (01 81 ( 351 H% ! 8" 81 ( L5
(CB! RN,PN)& ( CB! R`,VV) & ( CB! Ra,PO) & 9G !1 ( 351
0' ; () (!"4' ( C!VM,PN )& A5 ! (F) (J) () "" (I!"4'
: (bO) 8 (9 ' 6 %
RPPP 8 -5 '= *E (
B 2D M# # ( .''' 2 ) 7 2
1M /*A/ 2
2D
5
h
F
%
VM,SM
RN,RS
R`,OM
RS,Ra
RPMPQRPPS
VM,NP
RN,PN
R`,VV
Ra,PO
RPMSQRPMP
People verse 3.01 UC F 7 1M 1
: P 7 1# 2
)K)K).);
0& (RPPPQMNNS) +05 (01( CB0! a,VP) 0 81 ' ( A5 A (I0! "04'( RPMSQRPMP) +5 (1( CB! S,`a) & (CB! a,aO) & ( CB!a,Sa)
0' 0 >0 351 J!! D ' ' ( L5 !B
11*0 0 0' 'B W. & ; A9 (4 J!! & A0 %& / !1 ( 351 & ;% 5 ' 8
351 A 4!
%0
/E I!B 3B ! +' J! ( ! +' / (01 (CB! RR )& (RPPPQMNNS) +5 (1( CB! R`) A. ' ( 351 8/
+05 (1 (CB! Mb) & 8"( RPMPQRPPS) +5 (1(C!MN) & (RPPSQRPPP) +5
: (bN) 8 (9 6. %
(RPMSQRPMP)
B 2D M# # ( .''' 2 ) 7 1# 2
1M /*// 2
2D
5
h
F
%
V,bO
V,MS
V,MV
V,MP
RPPS – RPPP
S,RS
a,RM
a,RP
a,MN
RPMPQRPPS
S,`a
a,aO
a,SP
a,Sa
RPMSQRPMP
People verse 3.01 UC F 7 1M 1
-٢٠٥ -
-٢٠٦ -
: +
F # P C O )9)K).);
/0 !0 351! (" / ; J/ ' = A 0& (%VV,`R) 0& (%VM,RN) 0& RPPP 8 '(%aP,SS) " MS 8
8
0 ! . !B (I! "4' RPMS 8 ' (% Vb,bP) & (% VS,Pa)
(% a,RO) 0& (%a,VbS) & (% a,SV) & RPPP 8 ' (%V,Pb) " bS . !B (I! "4' RPMS 8 ' (% a,PM) &
0& RPPP 80 0' (%Sb,VN) 0 " ( baQMS) ' 8
/ ! !
(J) () 0!B (I0! "4' RPMS 8 ' (% SN,VN) & (% bM,bO) & (%ba,MO)
: B I' J ' / ! J/ (`P) 8 (9 () (F)
M# (&'.9 – &''() 5 267 1D5 F ( % ) C F 1M /('/ 2
* B 2D
+*9
*K).9
h
2%
.9
+*9
F
*K).9
2%
.9
+*9
*K).9
2%
.9
+*9
*K).9
2%
C
.9
V,NM bP,`N VS,VP V,NO bM,RR Va,OP a,PM bM,bM Va,VO a,Pb bR,VR VV,bR RPP`
V,OO bP,NN VS,MV V,N` bM,SR Va,SM a,PP bR,PP Va,PP a,Pb bR,O` VV,P` RPPO
V,OS bM,PS VS,MP V,Nb bM,`P Va,Va V,NN bR,RN VV,`R a,Pb bV,VR VR,bR RPPN
V,OV bM,PM VS,Mb V,Nb bM,`a Va,VP a,PP bR,aa VV,Sb a,PN bV,b` VR,Ra RPMP
V,OV bP,Ob VS,VM V,NN bM,bN Va,VR a,Pa bR,aO VV,aO a,Ma bV,NM VM,NS RPMM
V,Ob bP,SN VS,SS a,Pb bM,SR Va,aR a,MR bR,aM VV,a` a,RV ba,PS VM,`R RPMR
V,NR bP,VR VS,OS a,MV bM,RO Va,SN a,RP bR,RN VV,SM a,VR ba,Ma VM,Sa RPMV
`N,S SN,OR Vb,RM a,RM bP,NN Va,OP a,VP bR,MP VV,bP a,aV ba,M` VM,aP RPMa
a,PM SN,VN Vb,bP a,RO bP,bO VS,Pa a,Vb bM,NR VV,`R a,SV ba,MO VM,RN RPMS
. Microsoft – Excel 2000 UC F 7 1M 1 *
0 ' ; ! 4 / A ; J/ ' = %
J
0 / <E
9 ! (9 '= " ' + ! ( (1 ' 8
0 (0 ' 4 (9B * C ( c5 ) 7' 1 )
. ' !/B %1) 9/ %1 ' ' * -٢٠٧ -
! א
א
אI(
אא8א;
א
/ %& 9 ! J9 ! +
/ + &
0. 0* 0 - K' W 5 J (4 & ;E / ( +
09 0 0 09 0! 0 + 7
. +
%
/ +4 (/* Q ( ' $ %
– A5 / J!
/0 + & %& . !9 "E 6K' 4 ' 9 / %& /
'0 0 %& 01 A9 9G +4 ' + 6 W / /- + 4' 0' H% / < !/ FG & (4 (- / + $%- / / . H% ! *
(M)
. /- F& 8 FG (I F&
J9 ,! +!/ '= " 75& ( ' A / ( %
0-9 *0 .0 J ( 4 / ( / 9& (9 %
' 0 4 / !/ & . 9 1 ? 5* D /
0' 09 W/ D J' H-/ - (! FG ' (1 ( ' (
0 01 H / 9 ) +!/ c1 -9 /* J! %& /
604 0' 04 0-9 9 ' 75G 351 t* <! +4 351
. $
( / -' A5 ( ! ; ! 4 !
80 609 & ,0 091 +09 L +*! ? "g - / : ' 6 %
/ (.'B * > ) 1 L & "
0 c4 J 8 / 51 9 / + B ! ! & QM
0' 8
0 ;% B 91 7B + -% <!& 1
<"0 80 %& 0 0 80 ' ;9 ' 9 +
. 5 70' 0' 0 MS /' +5 5 6 J= / J/! ; ! 4 QR
0 =. 5 ! $%
RPPS 8 C / 9& % bR,a /*
, + C hC 1
, #O : .//* , F3 )
. .*9 > , JB 4 , CC 5 , CC
-٢٠٨ -
1
90 C.0 <E0- B 9 1 ) c' (9 / W!
(0 0 1 ;% / A. %
& . ( c5! 7 ' 1
+0 0 0-9 6& %& "/ %
/ ( 8
9
(%0! J9 -9 !/ 89 4 & * 6K' >1 -9 (
) <J J9 & 8- ( c' ) ( ' 1 + B (
) G
. / 1 04 / L5 / 8
J!* ' / ! ! /* !
%& . 09 0 ! "g +
$%
J A. ; !
0 ! k! H%/MNNP 8 VP ( I5 ( %OP) ! ("
@ J ! k!
(M)
. RPPa 8 H%(% `R) B ;G I! 8 8 >4 (% Mb,R) RPPR 8( %MM,`) ! '/ I
69 ! 1
. RPPa
50! +.0 '= 9 "2 9 ! J
<0! ;0 A0. ;! ! 9' "# !! A9
(05 J0 ' 8 %& " 9 "' ; / 7 * >
> 351 9G - , A9 ' > A9 . 8-9 )0 901 8 + 6 89 ;% B . B (1 (1 W
0 9 $%
<* ( 34 & <9 " / B 9
.(R)91 7B ' ' +4 C. / ! F& ' " +' ' ; ' + -!/ / + &
0 8?0! (MNOS – MNOP ) +5 (1 W ( 9 ! c1 H- >0 351 ( 9& 351 9 ! H% ' / +0 +0! 0!9B A04 4 9 351 A9 9G (=*
(٣)
. H0% 0-!9 0 8?! H- + ' 8
/ ( ;
0 c4 J 8 / 51 9 / + B ! ! K' !
0 +0 0! 091 70B + -% <!& 1
. &K > , &''9 – = D , 4 # D +C M )
1
C P , , H6H C, 4 Y # 7: &''K, =C4 ,F )
www.syrianconomy.org
H6H C , # + C C :&''& , ,+7 )
2
. www.syrianconomy.org C P , , 7
-٢٠٩ -
3
H-0 09& 0 5 J @. (9. ; ;9 ' 9 : ( RPPS– MNOP )+5 (1 9G W & H- !
( &''9 )./A')5 267 _6 5 FC /(./ 2
J! _6 C
5 FC
DC _6 !
_6
F
Nb,`
`bOa
bbOOP
MNOP
NR,`
`RPM
`VNaP
MNOS
Ob,`
VMO`S
VObRPO
MNNP
OP,P
VMOON
aSSSVR
MNNS
`b,b
VPRSN
aOPOaP
MNNN
`S,O
RaNOR
aNMRaa
RPPP
`N,S
VOVbN
ORO`Rb
RPPa
`P,O
aa`Na
OMOVaR
RPPS
UC
% B
.E + F , ( &''* )./A. ) Z D J 1 : 5 J H- 5 / I D/ 9 (`M) 8 (9 (1 89 H- 5 .51 ( RPPa – MNOP) +5 ' 6 , H- . 9G W 5 J 351 A %
' A9 & / + I' * > A9 D/ ;% 5 (1 351 8
4
A0 . 0 7 / B 9 ! & > ;% B H- 5 0& MNNP 8 + ( VMO`S) H- / ; A. 09G W 9& & H- ! .51 RPPa 8 ' + (VOVbN)
.(
M)
RPPa 8 ' (% `N,S) & MNNP 8 (% Ob,`) 0 ! 4! H- ; ( A9 ! 4 W & H- ! A9 &
*0 044 (1 351 9 (5 J c4 6 W ;% B (1 A <
. A9 ' >!/
(0 04I (" ! 4
5 (9 !4 J 1. &Qa
<! ( I I%= A 3! !! ! > % <5/ 74
0 %& 0 70 0 / /- ? /- 9 ! ' .E + F , &''9 D )
-٢١٠ -
1
04 0 (0 4 (1 !/ <9 8- ( 75G ' >1B
:
א
א2אL−١−٢−٣
%0
0! 04 0 ' 91 +9! 1 B ! - *E 0& A9' 91 +9 L9 5 6 ( *E
(M)
/ L9 84 MPP×
9G + 9G / 9&
= 5 J
0 5 J ! (9 + (/ 5 J J! 84
: ( ) 91 +9 *E
( &''9 – ./A' ) 5 1 1 5 FC /(& / 2
5 FC
1
1 (&) 1
1
.÷;
.÷&
(;) MOSN
NSP
MbMOS
OR`V
O,`Pa
MNOP
MSM`
bRb
MSS`P
baR`
MP,Rb`
MNOS
RRRV
VNPR
RbNVb
a`ROR
MR,MMb
MNNP
V`PP
VMMN
SROSb
aaSbR
Ma,ROS
MNNS
R`P`
RSMV
aVPMP
VOOOP
MS,ONM
MNNN
MMaNM
MVRab
MO`SVS
RMbMNP
Mb,VRP
RPPP
MVSRb
MaSaa
RRP`aa
RaVM`N
Mb,VRP
RPPM
MV`bV
MOaaR
RVS`Sa
VMSNMN
M`,MVP
RPPR
MVaNM
MSMPR
RVb`bO
RbSPVN
M`,SSP
RPPV
MOVN`
MV``P
VR`PMN
RaNPMa
M`,`NV
RPPa
R`aNO
RVRRS
SPRVbN
aRaVPP
MO,RbN
RPPS
C 1C
(.)
.6 + F, (&''*) ./A& ) Z D J F : I- H- J 5 L5 ( `R) 8 (9 3051 0 0 = 8 !9B A4 ' $ / L!& 9
3051 09 0 5 J A 4 -5 +5 (1 (/*! - 5 J
0! 0I%= 8 ' % <5/ 74 + I%= / A J
.C , , 16
: &''9, + ,F – 2 , N)
-٢١١ -
1
0! %05 0 0 +05 ; ]e W! A. 8 (M). 8 (* " ( RPPb QRPPa ) (* B .(RPMP– RPPa)
( ; ( ! < "
(R)
: C
+ W! %- .( RPMP QRPP` )
(0 74 ' 8- ! 9 = <. ' / 0 (0 %5 /& (% MP ) !! A' (1 / 0 !4 (1 5 A9 74 -9 5 ? 8 ; <B * ' "
" J ( (1 ) 91 +9 L
;E W & ! c & %& / * > $") ! . " / 5 (1 $") 9G W ( ' 351 &
$%
t. 8? " 1 (B !/B 84 H- / + /
+0 (0! H0% / (1 > * > D5 ' (9 6-9 -/ (B
6 $ ;% " (I. <9 & ; " / ( '= ") /
0 ;5 (1 > 9G A' / * > Fe +4 '=0 "0 ! ( RPPaQMNOS) +5 (1 4 ' 4 ! WI ( (1
6. %
. " (%MS )> 4! " (%OS) H-
: (`V) 8 (9
1H ! # #O 1H6 C F /(;/ 2
(&''9)./A') 5 267
1H #O 1H
C
`,V
NR,`
MNOP
N,P
NM,P
MNOM
MM,P
ON,P
MNOR
MS,V
Oa,`
MNOV
Mb,P
Oa,P
MNOa
MS
ON
MNOS
Mb,V
OV,`
MNNP
RP,`
`N,V
MNNV
Mb,a
OV,b
MNNa
MR,V
O`,`
MNNS
MO,O
OM,R
MNN`
. ; > , I , , H6H C : &''K , - ,
)
1
WWW.ALWATAN.COM C P $7Y , # + [6 : &''* , 2C , )
2
-٢١٢ -
MN,`
OP,V
MNNO
Mb,S
OV,S
MNNN
MN,N
OP,M
RPPP
MO,M
OM,N
RPPM
VS,b
ba,a
RPPR
Va,M
bS,N
RPPV
Va,M
bS,N
RPPa
V`,`
ba,O
RPPS
. 6 + F, &''* D J 1 : "0 0-9 (0 0 / ' + $%
9 7! (9 (1 51 A* ( 34 91 & )9 9 0& '
'= " L5 8? 6 & 34 H ( %
1 0' <09G $%0
4' 9 4 75G + / * > 80 0! A0 + B < ! ! 351 / 8 - & 1 L5 4 8
& 69 8 %1 ; ]G RPPP
< FG + ; " ! C 71 A5 / c
80 0 ;0 ]G 4! " ! $! ;% 7 A L
0' 0 !. ( 3' ' I =. */ A ! %1
80 3051 <0=& H% A + ;9 * ' A9 / L 7
" c' 351 /E %
. A 3! 84 0' 0 0 0! / (%P,aP )4' 6 9 ' 8 8 !! .(
10 <0G *0
(M)
RPPV 8 (%R,a) MNO` 8 - !/ .
A (/*! +9 4 (1& H% "E (R) 4' c1* (bVPPP ) RPPV 8 ' k! 9/ * & (9 J
4 FG + (1&
0 0 0 0 H% ") - ' 1 /* L5 (!4 ( 81) B 4' "! + 09 1 / 4 91 8 ! -/
: ' c1 69 H% !
. +" (1 A <
. I5 (1 J =.
. .A> W$ I P .... # + [6 :&''; , C ,N )
1
. _C , S # 14 ` , G O C )
2
-٢١٣ -
. ! 45 +I L
0' 0! !0 L5 ( 351 ' (1 L 5/ ;0 + & ;E (/*! A J c4 85 & E ( + C5
0- L05! 0 09B J .4 A9 I5 H )! H% 5 / 3051 0& ;E0 0-1 351 K' H% -1 89! I (/*! -/- ! H-
3051! 8 (/*! -K' (1 J " I5 . -! > A9 ! -/-
705e 0- L5! ! ' I5 $%
/ -1 L5 A H- -
J + & ;E 6) 9 9 ;% ' 1 /-
+0 & H% ;E W J ' 4 %
I5 $%
9 ! F1 (M)
. 1 B A5 C !-' ! J
' /- 8-5K! % 9 H !/ 4! I5 $%
/ '
W0 J0 W J + & ;E H% (/ " 15 !
0& W J + & ;E I5 $%- A5 /- 75G K' H% . I* +4 !
(/* $!! J c4 ' 8
D/
H0% 70' 0/ J @ (1 ( + J 9 ! '
IG 9 J' 89 + @ W H- 9& J A9!
044 0 0' MNNS 80 (% Oa,R )& MNNP 8(% NO,V ) H- A9 RPPS 8
0 / (MNNSQ MNNP) (1 (% MM,N ) 4 + F1 04! (01 +0 ;(R). 8B D5 (1 (% MR,O )( ! /- A +105 A0 0 J & 69 D/ (! 9 A J & ( 8 +
0! <G ' H- A J J F1 ' 9
0 0-! 89 L5 ( / / 9& I5 $%
! J
. 1! / A 3! -! + (1 0 (`MRM,a) 0- D ( RROVM,S !" (B 89 k! MNNa 8 5'
!0 0
!" (B 9& (% VM )!! ( 51 ) ! !/ +
0 +0 ( Sa) C0 / !' C ' !-! H% 7' 9 5
8 A4 J + J!! D ( SP "/ & ( " ! ' , C S , + # , + F4 : &''9 ,^3 ,F )
1
. (/ > , I , # + 4C 2
5 2 7 I P : ./// , 2C ,I )
. .9 > ,
-٢١٤ -
2
(!0 ) 9 B (% b`) I9 B( % OS )! B 5 / -'0 A09 ' ; ' +" / 9 I . (RPPP – MNNS) !
' - 4! & ;E 7 ! 91 7 -9 !
:
(M)
t! ")! 9 / ' E! & 0 ! /* % + (1 J > I* +4 C. 89 : 2B
. A9 '
C0.& 0& ;E %
F1 8-9 ! 5 (1 J C : CH
5 J ! (9 . + B J - !
. 91 +9 89 +05 (01 0 0 0 /0 0 0! ! 84 : 9 SPSS W! L!& J & ! (1& ! ( RPPSQMNNS )
: 1 C 6
).
: ! ( Q
r =0.91
0 y0 x/0 ! ! 9 ( r / %& ' !1 )
: P,PS >
: .5 %1)
H0:r =0
: 8 .'
Y X ! 9 : ! .5
H1 : r ≠ 0
Y X ! 9
r
~
t =
2
:
= 6.62
(1 − r )(n − 2)
( R)
9' t J Q
: =! 4' 9 t t
α
1− , n − 2
2
= t ( 0.97,9 ) = 2.62
/ + ! H
W H0 .5 3' H% t% > t
α
1− , n − 2
2
9 4!
. α = 0.05 > . * > , I , CC C M J 1V6 X
, # C : &''& ,= ,- ) 1
٢١٨ ص، o ذآ+G ﻡ ﺱ، ,رات ﻡ) ﺕ,H ﻡ، !G;%ء ا1KL ا: X ﻡ، وشA) ا، 6! ااه، () ا- 2
-٢١٥ -
( M)
: / !! J! 84 / !9 > D4
X
Y
%
Υ = −1363833.744 + 94448.99351Χ
Υ ′ = 94448.9935
E χ (Y
E x (Y
) = y (′x )
) =Y χ′
Χ
=8
Υ
E x (Υ ) = 4
09 RPPS 80 0 0X=18.269 /0 0 0-' 0/ 0 04 %M 04! / = %& 6 %-' $9 D5! +!/ !. Ε Χ (Υ ) = 8 .%O 4! $9 D5! = C K'
: 9 +5 D5 (1 1 C 6
)R
: ! ( Q
r =0.90
: .5 %1)
: 8 .'
H0: r= 0
y X ! 9 : ! .5
H1 : r ≠ 0
y X ! 9
~
t =
t
r
(1 − r )(n − 2)
α
1− , n − 2
2
2
: J! 84
= 6.2
: 9 t = t (0.975,9 ) = 2.62
60 0 c ! .5 (!4 H0 .5 3' H% ~
t 〉t
α
1− , n − 2
2
9 4!
A0 70' %
H* . P,PS > 89 / + 9
0 89 + ( ! H- + & / + ;E , ; A
. 65 ' 9 8" ;9 9 & ;E !0! J! 84 / !9 /) Q
/0 0x 80 4 81! >1 + ! B 81! / . RPPS 8 /
. ; ﻡ ا
اE
آH !?%!ت ا^ﺱﺱ! ^ن او ﺕA" ﻡ ا3
! Xت ا^وﺱط اT أ: RK ﻡ- 1
-٢١٦ -
Χ
Υ
: (/* (0"y /0 ("X , x,y ! " Ε Χ (Υ ) = ΥΧ′
~
Υ = −1455670.973 + 100294.4778Χ
ΥΧ′ = 100294.4778
Ε Χ (Υ ) = 9
Ε Χ (Y
) = 3.6
9 X=18.269 4 %N 4! C 8-! '%M / =! 6 %
+!/ &
A 89 + ' 8
;% B + A <* / $9 +
5 %
. / +
0 : C 17 P 1 1 J I5C 6
QV
0& ! (1K! / ( + ) ! ! : 9 J
+9 75G ( ) / ! ! ( J ! ( 81! Q
: 9 (D .( ) 91
r=0.96
: (/* " y =bx+a
∧
y = 49715.468x-19740.469 : (/* %1) 9 !" J!
0 0 +0 0! / ' + aN`MS,abO 4 (
+9 75G ' 4! / %& ; 1 A . + aN`MSabO 4! 91
A!0 = x (4 = (" /E R 2 = 0.92 ( &
. = %
(1 $ / 91 +9 75G ' = %NR ( y
0 0! (" +9 - %
R = 0.96 ; ! %- 4 8 & : 9' F J Ι . /) .5 (1
F=
δ 2 y% n − m
⋅
= 131
S 2 yy% m − 1
F 〉 F ′ %
F ′ = 4.75 v 2 = 12 v1 = 1 !4 9 F ′ -٢١٧ -
! 9 6 c Η 0 8 .' 3' ! "!4 ! (" ;
0= 0! ! c ! .5 (!4 91 +9 89 /
. !9 ( / ) Χ (4 = ( 91 +9) Υ A!
09 / + A 1 A 91 +9 75G 89 E! %& : ~
P,NS $0 (0! Υ2010 044 04 . ;% 4" > Υ2010 = 809783.1972
% 2010 − 2s γγ% , Υ% 2010 + 2s γγ% ] :
. [773411.0593,846155.336 ] = [ Υ
04 .0 ;%0 4" > Υ2015 = 913091.9397 : 9 RPMS 8 !! H%/
: (9 P,NS $ (! Υ2015 44
Υ% 2015 − 2S γγ% , Υ% 2015 + 2S γγ%
] = 876719.8018,949464.0776 ]
04" >0 Υ2020 = 1164037.968 : & ,0 RPRP 80 E0! !0! B H%/
0 0' , ;% = A = 91 +9 89 [112766.83,1200410.106
]
0 1 A 75G / A 6& , /
(/*0! 01 8 I%= / < / + B ! ) & 9
0B . 4 & ! -' / ; 3=! H% 8
+ A 4 ; > 351 ' (" ' - (=*0 74 / + J /& B "/ ' 9 ! , /
. + / 9 ) FG ( (.'B
! H &''' Y UC 6
C $! Qa
: 9& / J & ! (1&
rxy = 0.97 : 9G W / ! 1 ! ( Q
)! 9G W Y / X = ! 1 9 & * r &
. !" RPPP
: ! ! 9 ( r / %& ' !1Q
: 8 .'*
H0 :r = 0
. Y X ! 9 : ! .5 *
H1 : r ≠ 0
. Y X ! 9
-٢١٨ -
~
t =
r
(1 − r )/ (n − 2)
2
: ~
t Q
= 11.2
: 9 t Q
= t (0.975,8) = 2.306
t
α
1− , n − 2
2
~
c0 0 ! .5 (!4 8 .' 3' ! t 〉 t
α
1− , n − 2
2
: 9 4! Q
. P,PS > 9G W / ! 9 6 : " , / A 9G W !9 >
y = a0 + bX
Υ% = −569867.316 + 91596.76838X
ΕΧ ( Υ ) = b
X
= 1.6
Y
64'0 ;%0 = '%M 4! / ' ! = %
' Ε X (Y )〉1 !
c01 80 64*! H- > /E %
% M,b 9G W 75G
!0 +0 c01 609! 0 / 9G W 9& !/B <9 J
;%0 - 3! & '.& L!*G / > 9 H
( c1 ) H-
. 1 I5 3! 6
' 5 (1 A' ' !" RPPP )! 9G W -44 + &
0 W & F%M 4! 4 (1 5 J /E 4 (1 ' / ' . (1 > ' 8 /
( M
%V 4! 9G
/0 9 (9 @. . * > / %I / (
: W J 9G W
H&''' Y UC 5 FC 4( (K ) 2
5 FC 4
Y UC
"% UC
H &'''
C
aROSR,N
V`RNNR
O`Pa
MNOP
V`RNN,R
VONabN
MRMMb
MNNP
bPRMR
NVMbbP
MSONM
MNNN
SbSaS
NPVNaa
MbVRP
RPPP
SSVON
NVabbN
Mb`RP
RPPM
SSNPM
NbaS`a
M`MVP
RPPR
B
. ٤٩٨ص،
رHAﺱL ا، !)ﻡ$ ا
ار ا، ( و آU E!(Xد ﺕ1%23 اRH ا: ٢٠٠٦ ، I(;
اG ، !X
اG- 1
-٢١٩ -
SbVPN
MPPaVaO
M`SSP
RPPV
SOVbM
MPMVOaRM
M``NV
RPPa
bVRaV
MMSSVOb
MORbN
RPPS
. E + F , ( &''* ).//.) Z D : (0 04' +5 (1 ". / ; <B 7! (9 ;%0 0B ( %P,aV ) 4' k! 9G W ( 9 ! (%V,Vb) / 0& > ; <B ; (% R,OQ) & 9G W 5 J A9 ' 8
0 W0 5 J 351 & '.& / 5 !! ! 9
0/ 01 0 8- C. + (1 J / * > $%0
0 ( & B 9 @I* (1 351 %& (. ;5 (1 . "/! 4
' 9 9G W & 5 (1 A5 4' +' ' 0 8 & '.G! MNNO 8 <"! 5 L5 89 +5 H ' 44 . "! +9
;5 (1 ( ' ". "9 9 (RPPSQRPPP) ! +5 ' 6 &
W0 0' 0 ( 9 & / ( c 8? 9G W : (9 6. %
. ". 351 9G UC 5 FC 4 , UC , +C C 2
((9) 2
QRPPP
MNNOQMNNP
MNNPQMNOP
!
R,V
V,R
V,Vb
% / ; (
S
b
P,aV
% W ; (
R,V
`,R
R,OQ
RPPS
5 J ; (
% W
. ( &''9).//') Z D : + 1 ! WI 3! & ;5 (1 ' 351 > : -1 / +5 $%
(1 4 '
! + 9G 4 ! 1 4 •
. ; L4 ! c4 ( 1 L ) ," L4
-٢٢٠ -
80 "0 A0 ' * J! W " ! /- / J 8 •
. 4 ! A 8< ! " ' A , , -/
*0 >0 ;0 ;5 (1 > 351 & > ; A9 •
. ! 9G +4 /& 8/ 1 c' (4 !
(01 "! D/ / (! 4 9G W ' !/ E! •
. 'B
+ I' ' + / 5 (1 ' 4 4! + $%
$/% 9 . + 9B J J (1 ' / !
:
א
אI(H
א2א2
;א−٢−٤−٣
0& 1g 8 ! 4 8! C 1 ! % -/! F1 ' 8
0! 0 90- H% (!4 ' -)*! 4 <9& - J 9
(0! 80 (0/ 0 k! (! F1 ' 84 , 4' 7
04 8" 5. ! ' !9B 4! 1 (/* (B != ' 5
)*0 ! ' + " /- 3?B H% & 9 8- %& - <9 (!
0 ! 8-1 J%9 351/ 8-/ J9 4 - 8- (5!
<9 (! !/ 8 A +!/ + >& ' ,
0 ! 8- +!/ 9 + J!! H! ' LG .B <* 8-1
J!! >1 ' ' + ( A9 / (!4 ! )* ! ! 8-I0 ' 7 F1 ' 8
4 9 4! D5! ( 9- 89&
7' ! 1 & +! " 4' (" K' H% 8-!
0 91 ' ! (`b) 8 (9 -9 ' +!/ !4 , & ;E
: ; ! 4 '
P # 1 4O C h7 # 16 4 / (* / 2
( &''9 – ./A' ) 5 17
J! 16 C
17 P #
%
٨,٩
1 J! 16 C
%17 P P 1 1 # 17
16 1C
٣,٤
١٥٧٣٨,١
٥٣٥,٩
١٩٨٠
٢٦,٨
٩,٨
١٨٥٨٤,٩
١٨٣٩,٨
١٩٨٢
١٩,٧
١٠,٨
١٥٨٦٩,١
١٧٢٤,٩
١٩٨٢
٢٠,١
٩,٦
١٦٦٥٩,٤
١٦٠٠,١
١٩٨٣
١٤,٧
٨,٧
١٥٧٨١,٢
١٣٧٥,٦
١٩٨٤
١٣,٩
٩,٨
١٧٣١١,٣
١٥٣٨,١
١٩٨٥
٢٥,٧
١٣,٦
١٦٦٣,٩
٢٢٧٣,٩
١٩٨٦
-٢٢١ -
٣١,٩
١٥,٠
٢٢٥٩١,٩
٣٣٩٠,١
١٩٨٧
٢٢,١
١٨,١
٣٣٠١٢,٣
٥٩٨٣,٢
١٩٨٨
٣٦,٩
٢٣,٦
٣٦١٢٨
٨٥٣١
١٩٨٩
٢٥,٩
١٤,٩
٥٨٦٦٢
٨٧٢٢
١٩٩١
٣٦,٩
٣٤,٥
٨٣١١٣
٢٨٧٤٠
١٩٩٢
٣٥,٧
١٣,٩
١٠٤٤٨٨
١٤٦٠٩
١٩٩٣
٤٣,٥
١٠,٩
١٥١٤٦٢
١٦٥٠٨
١٩٩٤
٤١,٨
١٠,٧
١٣٧٧٥٤
١٤٧٧١
١٩٩٥
٣٨,٤
١٣,٨
٢٤٤٣٠
١٧٦٨٠١
١٩٩٦
٢٩,٩
١٣,٨
١٦١٧٠٣
٢٢٣٩٥
١٩٩٧
٣٤,٠
١٥,٨
١٦٢٣٧٤
٢٥٦٧٩
١٩٩٨
٢٣,٨
١٣,٦
١٧٥٣٠٠
٢٣٨٧٨
١٩٩٩
١٠,٤
٨,٠
١٧٧٨٤٨
٧٢١٤
٢٠٠٠
٣٣,٣
١١,٢
٢٨٨٥٢٨
٢٣٢٤٢
٢٠٠١
٢٥,٢
٧,٥
٣١١٨٥٠
٢٣٣٦١
٢٠٠٢
١٧,٩
٨,٣
٣٩٧٥٩٤
٣٣١٨٤
٢٠٠٤
١٥,٩
٧,١
٤٥٦٣٨٩
٣٢٦٧٨
٢٠٠٥
. 6 + F, ( &''* – ./A. ) Z D J 1 : : (`b) 8 (9 ' + (OSVM) & MNOP 8 + (SVS,N) L5 87
+0' ' F1 & 9- 9 (% Vb) k! ; (! MNON 8
= H%/ 8-I1 9- 89 C %& " !
50 L5 9 91 ( 6-* ;% ; ^' ! ! 7 /
0 0 809 + & ! J + ' !/ & 0=! %& ( MNOO – MNOP) +05 (01 01 A0 ' 9 = 0 ! J 4 -= (M)
(% MO,M) MNOO 8 ' (%Va,a)
0 ;09 J0 0' 09 = ' != (
. '
0-5 ' 8 " +' ' 89 + (! ' %1 8 <9G & 89
0& MNNa 80 0' 0 + (MbSPO) 89 A9 (9 %&
0 09 & $%
' c 5 / RPPP 8 ' + (`RMa)
:-
(
.91 ! ( ' 1! -! ! ' ; * > Q
. .;(;>, 1 , , 7 16 2M 3% :.///, ,S)
-٢٢٢ -
1
)0 / ;% B +9 ( 7 ' + C 351 QJ
. !9B ( ! ' 8
45 ! 8-9
351 ( c' (E. , 5 I + ( ' ( 7 / Q
. 7B ' 5 A9 J!! H% 9B
89 8 ( 8 ' 5 ( ' L.B * Q,
0! ( ' 5 I .51 ! (E. & ( 4 (1 04 (1 -.51 ' / A MNNb 8 ! I 5
0
(0& ( $%
L A 5 351 J!! 4 "
09 .051 9B % 2 + ? 0/ ? - 351! ' +/% ( ! 9 A 4
MNNS80 0 0! . ! / ! G ! / ' ( (% RR,b) !0! 0-' 0!9B 0 3051 (" (! 1 ,B & '.G!
(M)
1 (1 MNNO 8 (C bPP) <=
H%/ +/% ( ' 351 4 .! W1 4 -! $%0
09 4 (1 (% RS) (4 !! -' 05! 05/ <9G %1 8 J4 (!4 ' (bSP) 0 +95 ( ;. @! H% %5 8 8 %& - !
0 <0& 0 09 (! 91 75G c4! < 351 -!!
04 $ ' c1 L4 (! 91 75G %& . 91
c04 K' -" W / .
0 0-K' 91 + . 8 L4 69 ! 91 75G
9& + C -B B . ? 7= ! 1 E <! " x
0? 70 @0 0 ? C ' C ! +95 L QF
8? H% ' -9 ! $%
( ;% B H0 c04 8 B $%
& , $%
4! +9 C + ,& F1 ' / % RS 0 ! H%! +95
. ' -9 7 " 3! L +G (! $%0
0! 0 & != A9* <9G %1 8 ! (/ + ( `) / ;% C 9* D ;A&> ,W$ I P ...... 7 16 2M 3% : ./// , ,S )
-٢٢٣ -
1
0 +0 (O )0 0& /% 9* A' 8" + (V,NS )0! . " (B C ' + ( O,RS ) - 7! / A9 -& 4 MNOb Jg ' 9* C 7 " C0 (0 70' + C ( & 9* 7 '
C A9*0 70 $%
,& C- / +9 ( 7 ' + C & J
+0 (RV–RR) 0! (0 C ! 7 $%
! F1 MNOb / O / VP i0! + (Ra –RV)& A5 /B (!4 (A! <* ) 0 0' $0 0 8" MNOb / ( * ' + (M`,S – MO,S) & H% ! (RR – RP) > & ! ' 351 + ( VV – VP ) ! ( (9 (MNOO –MNO`)
/ ! H% MNNa ! += 8/! 7 $%
! H% (M)
9 C 7 & - 8 %
- 7!
0 0' 0 0& 9*0 0 J0 E* 8 / + >
C0 0 <0=& 0 C0 ' $%1 8 ;% <9G & (RPPV–RPPM)
. F1 ' 89 ' J ;% 9*
/ c4 $9! ( J9 4 4 (1 '- K' H%
+ / 9 ! ' 5 74 * -=. *! > ! (" 91 1 .5 -9
. ( 9 (! 5 ) 5 ' (1 ! . &.* > , I 1C , , # MC : &''' , , ` )
-٢٢٤ -
1
"#
:: $%&; <=( > 0
אא:א7Nא,א=<M;%7?!-א1
#א"
א
! .
אא!O:)*+א1
#א"
.!
$
-٢٢٥ -
"#
מא
)אMאMא
א
א
0 0-9 ( !? $9 & > +9 +
L* &
(M)
: 1 ,"
. 91 L4 @ W! %5 (1 H% ;4 : (B > (0" G > 5 8!& (1 91 +9 ! 7 : " > . ( ! + +9 4 &
+09 0 0' /*! 7' 91 +9 U * "/B : ," > . +9 = & 8. (1 CB & ' 91
80 3051 0 c0 ;% – +9 ! @! . 4 " %
04 /5 / 4! 8 A ' / (1 <-& UI- -& 8" /9
U .' 9G c1 +<5/ ' 8- (I >& $! (!4 U
(R)
. !9B ' ]5 09 ; > +"E + ! % ) 91 +9 ) &
0- J4 (!4 ' 9 C' +9 I ? C / - /
0 !90 -
+ ( =. 91 +9 ! <! & A' ; 8
;09 c01 L4 ' + +!/ ! ; . ;9
. 7 g & 69 7' ;%
0 0G 80-5 70' " 9 ' $%5 g ;9 ; &
(0 0 ' / 91 +9 -! ) 1 U !9 ;
(0 H ' (9 "g 1 $%
6 ( I9 – B Q ) !
0 +9 (9 ' ; 4 3! ' * 9 ' J9
:
(V)
-
S 2% 1@ C 2 C , VC 1O , ./// , 2, I )
1
.*).9 > , I – _C P , , , H6H C , VC : &''& ,=C4 ,F )
2
&&A> , I
WWW ALI qtissdya
C P $7Y , 7 + 3% : &''& , F%, )
com
-٢٢٦ -
3
0 0 0 60! 7" / > & ( 4 1 9 . 91 <! '
: 7 91 +9 7I & 7 ! $%
f ! U 91 +9 ! QM
7B ( & ;E - / " 9/ LG ( FG + '
. 7B 0' -9 <! +9 ' > 9 J QR
0' 01 A 3! .5 4 & ' +9 7 @' & ;E -9
0 U I9 1 /9 8 351 & '.& >1B 3! (01 . L ( & 3! !
." >1 65 8 !9B 4 )
<09 0 ,0 = A (
E +9 1 C51 U 4! /% &
^0/ 0 (04 & '.& 9 > ") 9 (/*! +9 . * > 351 ! + / ;
0 80 (4 ! 8 ' + ( (" -" +5 $%
' &
+ <9& %1! " +9 4 351 & 7 8 & 69
:
(M)
! -9& / %
'
0 F0G <! 11 & <9 ' c1 L4 + •
. *! 91 "
. U 1 C c4 A C ' •
. 91 +9 ' I9 B 4 351 (1 !. 351 •
. 9! (& ! A A9* 69 •
.- ( I 9 A' •
. 5*4 •
4!0 J9 +5 ( 91 1 & 5'
0! 0! A I" 5 4 U H% ! 0!B – 0 /*0 A0 ( 9 ( ' 5 $%
,
. +9 & 8. .A > , I , , # + [6 : &''9 , 2C , )
. www.Economy,syria.com,
-٢٢٧ -
1
א
א
אI(
0A1
א
א/א
9 ( U 1 ( ! 9 9' " +
G 9 / $%0
(0" 0! 0/ %
-9 / I5 U! -! + & ;E
;09 80 0' +! +
! G / (/* ( 9 . CB 3! U + U -.! (* G 9 5 9 (9 - (0/ 0 + ( ! G 9 5 U + U 12
(* +9 9 1 ' +9 A ' +9 & '.G! *' ;
09 >09 , !B ' / I!! 4 ' "
(M)
. (/ & U ; (/
:א
א
אI(
0A1–א+@אא/א−١−١−٤
>0 04 * & F . !B /* L. 0 0 0 0* ' ( ) ! C 1 CB -!9
09 / G 4 A' .4 /* L* ' (1 H% '4" 9
-9! 4 9 3! 8 / & + !B :
(R)
-
D – !B /* 5 / 8 L4
;09 80 0' F ; A / * ; QM
. /* ! !9
80 0= 0/9 0 04! 8! 7 & QR
6! 84 ;% 8 8 ! 3! 9 8 ]& '
. A4 8 0' 0/ 0G 04 0'/ 0 6' ! ! 9 (! QV
. /* %5
,% O C VC 15 &''; , ,2O)
1
. . > _C B
H6H C , - , , B 14 + : &''& , =C4 ,F )
.A> , I , 7
. 3M , , # I : ./// , , +$C
-٢٢٨ -
2
(0 (0! 0 + !B 9 !9 /9 8 351 Qa
80 0& /* %5 <! U ( MRQMP) +' (1 9 (/*! /* ' <.B
. /* $%
%5 + + - ' 8 $%
<5G
(0! ,! >9 7 6. 7' /* & ' 9 (! 8 QS
)*0 04! 80 A0 /*0 %5 <! D1 ! 9
. 5! 4
. !B .5 )* 4! 8 Qb
!B A /* ! / J? <9G $%
(" 9 &
H0% 0! 0 >0 74 !9G / ' J4 > ' !
>0 0' .(M) /* 5 A 8 ;% ! 9 44 J
0 0 0 0 0' - + & 4 /* 5 ;E A J "I9 + / ' + (!4 !B
. /- A " .5 ' / 4 G 9/"I9 >1 !
. !B ( & A5 @9
(0 /) !B 7 & 9 7' 5 .
$%
/ . !B & "" . * ( 7 &"9"1 H%/ (MN`O 8 %
. J 3 69 ( 351 " ' "/ / !B 7 (!4 ! J '
0!B 0 & 69 /. !B ' /9 8 "/B
01 @ 9 & '.& 9 <.B + ' MS 0
. /* 5 ( ' 7 &"9"
J0? J!0! +0 0 !4 -9 ' ' 3 ' C. -5 9/ > C. * / 9&
. +9 4! 7B! 9/ (4 91 " 7' +! 7 I' H-' ( > ") 0' + H* F& 5 8 <* (1 L4 ' + - 7'
0& 0 +0 0& '.G! 9/ (4 ;9 ]5 9 ! > 5
0 0 704 0' 0 +! !B 8 5 c %& . 9
EL – I mam , M , M , 1999 ; " Arab European EconomiC part nership with particular reference )
to Syria , Egypt "Arab Economic , Journal , NO , 16 , sum , 99
-٢٢٩ -
1
! A 75 - !B ! I4 ;9 ; &
0-' J9 /9 8 9 <5& . ;% MN`` 8 % !9
(09 0' <0 051 J9 5 $%
? ( H ( '
& /% 75 %
J9! + $%
8?! . ;9 ;
8 9& ( %MS ) 9 8 + 9 ! 09& 0
(M)
( %ba) ! 8 D5 ' -! =! + 81 9 RPPa
. ;%0 (``) 8 (9 (1 !B ! ;9 A. C /
: !B ( A ;9 (! 89 ;9 @.
M ( &''9).//' ) 5 267 B 2 + /((/ 2
J! 1 1 B 2
B 2
NVMS+
RPMMb
MPOPM
MNNP
``MR+
RbPNa
MOVOR
MNNS
MPSaa+
RVbbN
MVMRS
MNNN
OORSN+
MaPRbM
SRPPR
RPPP
OVSRR+
MSbVN`
`RN`S
RPPM
MPbVPa+
MSMRb`
aaNbV
RPPV
OP`Oa+
MVaPbO
SVROa
RPPa
MR`RNO+
MOOOVN
bMSaM
RPPS
+ . E + F (&''*).//. ) Z D : H0
!B @ !B ! ;9 (9 -
0 705 0 0 B U 1 A 6 ' !B -! A ! +
,0 0!B ( -9 / + R,S 4! 0 % 09 0-9 (I +! !B 8
'.0 0 (0 ( L ? ! ? 81 5 ) (!4 '.
0!B 0 ( 0& B @. (`O) 8 (9
(R)
./%
: ( RPPaQRPPP) 8Y
. E + F &''9 D )
1
1CC 1 P , B : &''; ," + )
WWW.acc pss. org / Arabic /a kurasat / ka461 htm
2
-٢٣٠ -
M (&''K)&''') Z B 2 J! B 1 /(A/ 2
&''K
&'';
&''&
&''.
&'''
VPPN
VSba
aRRP
VbVa
V`VN
81 5
aVa
SPS
SOO
VbN
aPO
! ?
MPR
Maa
RPV
RPa
RRN
81 $7Y – B 5 C , # C 2B C4 @ : &''9 , , : www . AL mowaten. org / society / working /8-04/ working – 26-8/
: 1CC 80 MNNP 8 "<! ' !B ( A ;9 (! 89 !
H0
& 605 ' 6 9 7 ( %
' (% MV,` )k! (! RPPa
(!4 8
!B (9 ' J! (=! ! ' (1 U +0 80
0! ;%0 ; 5 & I (/*! ( $%
9 J! 60 ; !0 74 ;9 (! 8? !B & 0 89 ( & <* ( & %
!B ( 4! A !! 1
0 !0 0! (9. 5 / !B : !B ( 8
& 5 267 B 2 X
J! 1 1 C F /(// 2
(&''K).//' )
%1 C
%1 C
RM,`
SS
Rb
a,O
M`
R`,V
'
`,O
N,a
!
. E + F ( &''9).//. ) Z D J 1 : 0 -0 0=! , !! U - U 9 U /* 4! (`N) 8 (9 -
0 K0' C# . (%RM,b ) - =! ' (%SS) (09 0' ;09 (0! A0 (9 5 A 8 ' - +05 (%R`,V ) 0' 0& 0 0 0 k0! 0 . = 5 "
. +5 D5 ' (%M` ) (RPPaQMNNP)
-٢٣١ -
9 (I U .5 (9 ' 1 !B – /* "
>0 0!B ;09 8 ' F + ) & U. * / /* $%
. /* ! 6. ' 6!9
7 J ) B 1
C .).).)K
: 0 091 +09 L0 0 0 – !B /* !9 "2 ("
: '
H & - "/ !B ( 4 > +& (1 ! > $9 / ;9 ' U9 71 %
(
-I/0* A 4 ! ! -! A " 69
C51 %
! + +5 & +9 " J%9 U . !B
0& H%0 09 C ; ;9 ' 9 + (M)
. !B 7B
FG ' +%' A A' 9 (! 0' I4 t* U' " & + !B 9 40 0G 5 - -5/ (4 -9& 8 -9& $09 0 09 ' / 4 <9G (I H% ? -
(R)
. !B /* 5 U4! & + !B '
.51 J!! ! +9 89 + & 7B /
;E A 0& /* ;E A 6K' >1 -9 /9 ? ! & /9
0! WI & U ; ! <! %
!B ;9 8 ' F
0 0-9 0 ! %
FG (9 ' 4 ' ' 7 / -'
/* W0 !B 7B ! (! ;9 E I +B !
. +9 & ' : J!Y !B + +!/ ' H
+ I! 9& A9* •
C , + J – B 1
C , 7 : &''9 , S, N )
1
* > , I , . CH H6H
Philippe , Bermard , (1997 ) " . Syrian – European Ymion Econompic and jinacial partnership "
paper presented
2
-٢٣٢ -
3051 0/9 80 351 89 9 5/ 351 •
.JI.
8-)*0 0/
+& 91 7 + •
. 8- +9 A'
. )* 8/ +5 •
%0
' ' ( 7 ' 1 !B /* (!& ( •
. (9
0 A0 U 1 !B 7 69 + 5 / •
-0 09 3051! A H /
0
0!B (0 0 + 4! . /9
. !
0& ! 6K' /* ( ' ; ;9 ; A. 8 %
<. 0!B 7B & (1 (- C 6B 4 9 /* ' 4 .5 !
@ .'B $%-' !B 7 ' "/ +9 @ I" 75 !
0 804 !9 - / /9 8 4 9 81 8 (1
; I" 5 B U ("! D !B & !
(M)
. ( !B -4 : 7 J – B 1
C )&).).)K
: 4 ' 5 ! "2 c1
80G (1 !B ! +9 ! / /* & (01 ;9 ' 9 ( & ;E + !B A J 0? 0 t* 3! 5 & < c1 8 L4 '
7'0 80 0 0& 0 + ( ' 1 ' +4
0 0 U1 U ! U / /)! 9 / & !B "
. /* 5 C
B U'1 +0 +09 04 +5 /& / 5 / !B 7B & ( & B + !B 7
, CH H6H C # - – B 5 C : &''9 , )
. .K > I – C 2B C4 @ - #
-٢٣٣ -
1
0 (/*! ' ' +!/ +4 ' +
.A 9 % >1B 81
80 <0=& 0 U"/ 5 %
– 5 81 /9 ' & (M)
. 9G -9 , 8 ( ' /* 75 J /9
(D)! ( 3! ' 69 C !B ! & & 04' 0!B 0 (! .'B 7! A !B /* 74! 7! /
0 0 04 . 8 HB - (R)
. ( %RPPQMPP ) ! ] !B ( & -1 > /9 .51
.05 - /9 8 & + & +09 & . ? >1B ( ;0 0 C/ & ! + ' 4' D %
AI.0! 0' J? J!! !B A' ' (" '.& <!
0 0 8 /9 8 .1 4! C -B ' >1B !9B
. ; '.& 5/ (/* A
0 "0 0& 0 09 0 ' A C. !! %1 %& J %& ' FG + + ( 9& A' (9 9/
. 04' (%V )6 ! 9 !B 6"! $ / ; 5
FG /B !B ! 9/ +95 A 8/ !
091 +09 (/
4! !B 7 (1 U9 / ;
$%0
0 0!B 9 7 @' / 6. 0-"! 4 !B AI.! 9 & '.& /9 8 / 4 +1B
(V)
. 2 6 (! ; 71 6)* 09 !B A 9! c1 91 +9 ' 9 85 0 0 +0 0! 9 H- & 9 H- I9 (
0! 0 +09 "0 & 9 H%/ H- & ( L5 !B
0 0!B @ 3! ' ( , A / . >1B ( J
H6H C J! M L – B 14 + : &''' , =C4 ,F )
1
. .A >, I . HH C , M \#G 4 – B R 4 1 : .//( 6 , -7 )
2
. .9(> , I 1C , 1 I ;.> , I , 5 " c$C " 4 B : &''; , )
-٢٣٤ -
3
)0 (0 1 ' 7 i ;% !B ! 1 +9 & 0& 69 ' 1 4 + +. 8/! U 0!? (B DE $9 9 + +9 4 > 5 4
0 0 (9 %
' 5 (1 / 0 & !B " 69 + / ' 7 t'
(M)
. + / +5 ; +0 +09 4 & (1 !B ! ! +9 & 7 ' + *! & ' / * (1
: J!Y !B
0' <.0B (0 A9 @ - +9 & . ! B QM
;%0 B ! B ! U%5 >1 ;B - . !B 7B ' ' .1 4!
/ ' * I! ! /9 8 3 !B B QR
. !B 7 & AI.! (1 & -4! ;E U 04 (0B <.0B ( 9 (.5 C !B (/ K' H% & '.G! QV
0! (0 09 0 <& ( – ! – (=! )
(.05 0& ;E C !B (/ / . ( ! ) 4'G
(R)
. 4' ! ( 6& +9- ( !B 0 +0 ' 69 RS 0 !B ( & & 70 0& U 09 U 1 @ 9 & '.& 9 <.B
+0 !4 -9 ' /* 5 ( ' 0 0 90/ >0 C0. * 9 J? J!!
+09 04! 0 70B! 0 0 0' C. -5
(٣)
. 0/ & 5 7! B ' ; 3 /* $%-!
+09 9 9 & 6 ;9 ' 3I5 351/ 6 3! ' !
. !9B " 6. %
91
. &K > W$ I P ... 14 + : &''& , =C4 ,F )
1
. &&.> , 3M , , 1 : ./// ,+ , V
)
2
1 4M J 5 HY I # SEBC , B + 2 B 2 1% 3
. www.ArabBorsa.org\Enps\ht24.htm. 1CC $7Y -٢٣٥ -
"0! >0 !B /* 5 5 9 8? 6 2M I 80 0!B 0 A0 /* ' (1 9 & 3 E ! : C% # 4 W$3 ]9 - %& * 9
09 0-! ! % JB 4! ; ! /* 5 . •
!B . -
) ( (=! ! ) U (B !B ( !B
804 0 C"/ ) U (B !B 7 ; H%/ .( i ... " A. 09 3I05 704 ;09 ! ' 1 B 8 (1& 8 •
. !B
0E A0 / /9 .51 +' & A +9 ' F •
. !B E ' 8 -5 C/ 0 0 8 . ; ;9 ' 74 /* 5 . •
A0 0- ' / 6! ! %
' !B ;9 3I' "
. !9 / A - (/ 64! 8 + +9 ' 4
: B 5 - + 27 B 1H P -1 /9 8 ! ! -! A L5 9 <5&
/*! A' 4 + +. ("! * !B (
50 ; c1 L4 A /* * & ' - L' @5 !B
0 0 0 09 + ! !B 9/ +!1 .'
<09& ;09 0 $09 0- %5 ! ( '/ (
'0.& /*0 05 %05 0.5 ' .? ' 1 7 ' G
. +9 (9 ' !1 G (9 ' 5 (4 %
* ; 4 & (4 9 69 ; !
0 & !B /* & 1 -9 84 ;%
,0 >1B ( J9 & %& 4 & J ' 6
0 (0 ' ; x = & 5 = ( SP & 9
(0 91 7B F% ' 7 = & > 7 & 6
' 1 ( J9 +5 LG ! H%. 91 + 7B
(" – !B /* 5 A K' % ! "2 H /*
0! ) = & *! 8. U ! ' ; ! U 1
-٢٣٦ -
0& 8.0 0 %01 ' E! (9 H
8' U9 U1 ! A /* !
/* - !9 +5 c' 5. +1 H% B !B 9
. -! +9 & 1 * .5 ' 1 !)'
(0 8
B ; 8- !B – /* 5 & 8 (/*!
0'/ ' ' H% ' ! ( (9B ' J/ 74 c' & ; %
0 0 04 (09B ' ! "g H
/ /)! - 1 9
' -9* (
) & ( MR) 4 +5 ' ! / 0' 9 ! ;% ;*! ( D ' " J ;" x ' (1 L04 801 0! ;04 9* %1 & '.G! ( (9B . 91 +9 L ! 9G
/*0 5 !9 / 8
-9 / (9 ' A (
(0! A !! %1g 8 ; (/*! %
(= 8 %& . ( 4 > '
. ; U U' / 6K' %
74 %& 4 4 6! 5
:(WTO)
;א
אMIN
א;
מAOא−٢−١−٤
0 9 "<9 >1B ! ( (" ; !
0 5 K' H% +9 ' / 8 8 U. / < 6' , ! ")
(0" 80/! 4' D ; "E C +9 & ' - A 8
0- 0 B 9/ U. (! +9 89 (%NP ) "/B <.B ( +9
0 <.0 C0B ! 8 6! 8 - 75 C A B =! 9 @
. & ' 5 9 7 ' @ A 1 +9
0" * ' . (/ C/ +9 & 8. J! 4 0 -*01 & +9 & 8. 7! ' D 8 > .
(M)
RPPM
0 -0 / "/ !9B 9 8 - @5! - & ' -. ;E
7 & -1 > .5 ! A / -9 U 1 !9B 7B (1
(R)
. !B 9! -! / 5 U 4' !B
70B ]5 @ +9 +9 5 . 0 05 0 (/ - c ;9 H 8
" 9! !9B P $7Y , VC J! -C 14 + : &''9 , S , N )
1
WWW. mowaten . org / society / working / 8-04/ htm : C
&K > , I , 5 , C 2% 2 : &''' , , )
-٢٣٧ -
2
(M)
: 1 5 (1994 GATT) A +9
0B 0 0* (0"! ! (* 9 7! ' 8 ! )%
A $%
+*! ? JI. 3' H% + A !
<09 / -!" /9 8 & - 8 4' 9 / 4 . 9 4/ +. . %& /9 ' A' &
0 3!0 & 0 G 8 / 84 L )F
<0=G 0 D01 +0' ( 7 1! G FG
. G
. >1 ( 7 7?& ' " ? ' + /* L )h
(0 0 4 +I5 + AI.! /9 " D & Q]
. RPPP 8 ! ' /9 " 5 %5 (! 4 ] +' !. 5 5 4! -* @ <9& 8 +9 . Qx
0 0 0 0 9 -* @ <9& + AI.! +9
0 I%= 9 I%= !1
<0=& +0 09 +9 !. /) . W! * A. <.B (
0 5 * A 3 <9G
(R)
. I%= A +9 51 U ("
0/ 74 5 '/ '! <.B ( 8 /5 / 74 (9 ' Q
0 0 I.04 <9G ' H% ' ! >1B <.B ( /5
.
(V)
. A! 8 & <9 -51
0' <.0B 0! ( k! , ( =) 8 ' + ! ( /* !
>0 0 +9 & . MRS ( ! MV +9 0.5 B A.1 8 ! I ' I 5 & + /*
. ( = ) C*& 9
1C VC 5 2V # #G 1 P : .//K , 2 ,I )
1
.&; > 1 . &(> I P )
2
5 1 @ , 15
I5C , 1 : .//A ,J54 , 6 )
3
. .&(> , 3M ,
-٢٣٨ -
80 ! ( C = +& & > C = ?
. 91 -9 ' ( D B J= ) ! ( 3! %1 (=)
: VC J! -C 14 ) .)&).)K
;0 ]G ! 9! C1 +9 & 8. ! &
C0- 0 – !B /* ! >!/ ! + +9 4 & - ' FG ( " 7 ' ; I A & -9
(M)
. ("B 81 !
: -
' + +9 & 8. ! H*
0 A0/ G 5 / 4 '/ <=K! H% 8 91 +9 L QM
8 9 + / /9 '! <5/ c 4
(R)
. H9 64 ! W W ! '
& A4 ( - !9B A4 ! <=& QR
. ! 8I4 ! H' ! F1
01 0 0
0 (* (! A 4 J & QV
>0 !0 0 (04 1 ? ) C/
0' <.0B ( A -9 .5 9! U 4 $%
' (V)
. +9 0 ! !B A /* 75 & ' 84 !
0! "0 7 & 6. / U " A' -K' 5 / 4 091 1 7 ' ' 9 A / & -!%9 8 5"/
0/ 0. !0 +! -' A ' 1. " %5 -
$%0
(0" 01 +
0 0 U J ? 551
1C , VC 5 2V # #G 1 P : .//A , 2 , I )
1
. &( > , 1 C4 > , W$ I P .. VC J! -C 14 , + : &''9 ,S , N )
2
A
1C , 2 J 15 HT : &''' , ,263 )
. ;A> , 1
-٢٣٩ -
3
DE J%09 0& F -5/ 8 ( DE! %5 / "
(M)
. A* $%
' " !9 (
+& & ' %1 G 1 & : 4 Qa
MNNM 8 / MP / 8 " (/ * 4 ' RO 8 4 !9B + F1& (1& )*! +9 8/B
. ' 1 C D)! c1 RPPM / V / RN '
& ,0 0 0' 0/5 / H%/ +9 & 8. J QS
/5 -4 -! ' " 89 !9B /*
(R)
. ; 4 & ' ?
F01 0& 0!9B A4 ( - C-! C Qb
. ! 8I4 ! H' 4 (1 4 : +9 & 8. 7 ' 7 E <! Q`
0 0-9 9 " / ! ! -! +"/ ! 0' (0 <9& - J ;% 7 -9 > 9 & /*
11 7B ! 1 (9 E G
. 7 B (/*
: VC J! -C 3B )&)&).)K
4 & $9! ( ' ? @! +9 F1 <4! &
+0 +9 4 G !B A -9 .5 >!/ ! + +9
04 0& A 3 +9 8/ 1 !B ! !
+09 0 0 8/B 4 -/ ' >!/ ! + +9
. !B 75 !! ( H%/ 0' I 1 1! ].! <*
0 0 0& <5/ 91 +9 ' 4 @ 1 -
4 : ! H% 9 /9 8!
-C , J B P VC HG : &''; , % ,+
)
1
/ > , I , I , 1C , VC J! -C 23 :&''; ,C , )
.
-٢٤٠ -
2
0 !9& ") % / 91 +9 +9 & 8. & Q
(0 J09 6!" 6! (4 %
' ; * (9
<09G 0- -0 (0!/ / 4 <9G ' 04 0! 0' ( / 5 / . 91 -9 & '
$0? A 4 ! + ! (/ K' 6 U4' 9 ! & * A
(M)
. 6I/* ' . !9& / ") ; 91 +9 ") & QJ
.0 FG (I ' 7 -" 9G +4 A & ;E
0 FG 5 & ;E / B 351 & ;E ;% B
<0 8-9 ' !9B 9 6" ;% ; (! & 9 A'! H%
. 91 7B ' 7 '
8-"0 0* 0 0 9 ! ! ' > & (
0
*0 $%
'/ 8 69 FG > A' 45 351
& %& 0-91 8 +9 & ' / "< ; . 91 7B & (1 U U* @! 6 FG > A'
'0 09 B & FG A' +9 & 8. )* & QF
(MFN) 0 "/B +5 -/ 9 91 7B
0' <.B ( -.5 /9 4 7I !
0 U09 0
0
+ $%
H* <.B ? ( 0! 0!9B 0 ' !4 J (/* (R)
. (9 (%bP) U (/* 5 -" J.
0& ;E0 0 +09 & -. 9 / ! 8 & Q
;E U 4 /* I 9 & 9/ (4 * . 4 FG 7 -9 2 5/ 351 & ! H%
0. +*& <K! H% ' ;" x & 8 %
;E /
L04 %
A' '5* !" 4! )! ! ; (B L4
. ' " & !
, 1C , + J 7 H% : &''; , C , )
1
www.Syrian economy . org P $7Y . &/ > ,I
, + 45C 4 , C C B VC M : &''9 , 3 , + )
..> , I
-٢٤١ -
2
09 0/9 - L5 & ;E C +9 & 8. & Q
0'! 0 0 U .5 4 <9G (! 91 +9 . ' A. ' ! /9
*0 0 9 >1B !. ' + U . H% 89 /
JI. >1 L 3' / U . 91 +9 89 ;
09 35 VAT '. 4 !. (" -5 / - ( /9
(M)
. + <=& * +9 5 & I* /9 ' 3' ! 8 J9 $%
(" c & 9 <9G ? / 4/ I <9G ? !
(R)
. 9
0 9 A 6K' ;9 Q0
%& 04 0 U0I- C $%
/ U - A.1 / 4
04 (0 (0 0 +09 /9 8 . /% 52
0- 0 0' U 0 4! /9 8 ' +< /
U0!/ U<9 (/* 2 -9 B I%= A 8. 9 /9 -. = /9 8! 4" . +!/ +! A $%
K' ! +9 & 0 0 0
. ? / A A 4!
U0!/ U (/* + A' ) -. J ! ")
0 9 7' ! /9 8 3' $%
' / 9
0 0 0 89 ;% B 7' I* -
. + " 9 ' -/ & ! +
9 A + + (!4 ' Q
+9 ' <.B ( 7 ' "/B ! $%
A
70B 0& 09 $%
(1 6 ! U * (/* -B U9 + $%
.&( > , W$ I P....... , 15
I5 , 1 : .//A ,J54 , 6 )
1
.
1 , C 2M VC – 7% 1O : .//9 ,3 , +
)
.; > 1 , -٢٤٢ -
2
U 7B $%
(1 '/ ? - & & U * (/* / & + $%
/ . 91
0
' J09 0 04 * -' 9 --9 +* '
' A9* / <*& (9 ;% B . %
-'
' ]9 -
. U U . 91 7B ' c5 ( 09! ")0 0 $%0
8? + J 1HY W$3 I
#
5 /9 ' ( +9 A -9 .5
+! 9& +! A 6K' $%
& -. (!4 -4
0 ' ;9 9 %
(E. U. A 6/ . 4 > + !/
. 91 7B ' ' 9 ! A 4
0/& ( +9 & 8. K' $. (/ 8? H% A
(01 f0 ,0 (0 0' 0 +9 - <9& & <9
. ' !
L04 0/ 80 351 +9 K' 9 F0G 80 k! 351 ;?B 9 ' 75 8 4 ( ' 809 , (%RM) 4 , ( %Vb) 0! 8 ( %RP) 4! 705 /9 ' & ? / 4 '/ ( 75 8 /
.(M) (%VM) 4! -4& U .
0' 09 $%0
H% D/ 7B ' 9 L5 &
80 3051 0 5 / FG + ' ' %0
(0" H% . 9 + = ( ' Fe 84 /
+0 (0 7 ' B ' D' 9 +4 8 351
0! 0 9 / -% + ( 7 ' 4 '
. 9 $%
' ! 5 9G *
0 +9 & += 8. K' 9 +0!/ 0 ( 4 +.4 $%
& ' 9 J9! -/
.0 U 0 -0 @0 0 & /9 / U 35 -
7 ' 7 ' < 9 $9 ?& D !
(R)
. >1B (
: VC 4! - 1 # 2 -5 : &''; ,% , +
)
www . iqtissadya . com 25
P $7Y , 1MC , VC O @ : &''K , P#C , N5 )
www.Alalam.ekt . com
-٢٤٣ -
1
2
(09 0 0 1 ' ' ! C/ +!/ U-9 L. %
J 0 +9 > 9 8 & ' - L' /
%0
70' -0 0 L' -/& C. 8? U 1g (! .JB
: VC J! -C % -C 1 );)&).)K
6 +9 & 8. ' / -9 <g 51
0 0/9 ' 351 !! +9 & 8. + . 4'
+ 04' 0! 0 .0 -)! /9 8 & 351 & ;E A0. +0. !0 "2 75 / !9G "2 D 8. 0 !9 "2 + +9 A. A J ! <9G (M)
. +9
: & ;E C H% VC J! -C -
^
0/ 8/! -.! ( ' 8 + 8 .M
(R)
. '. - J!! F1 . /9 5 1 & ' 351 .R
. ' +4 ? 3! 5 9 ( .V
. ' ' 9 I%= A L5 .a
A0 ; 8E ! , ! " ' 8 .S
. 9 A.
(V)
. ! 6! ; 4 4' .b
: ' c1' VC J! -C6 @ 1 %
. 9 ;9 8 F1 <4! /& 8. M
. - 7B & %5 +5 .R
15 2 # =M 15 D3 : &''; , I , )
1
, B , % O C , P # + 2 =M
;'> ,_C
H6H C , 7 7 #C 14 P " C R4M 23Y : ./// ,7 , C )
2
A> , I , CH
, , 7 ! P , C 1O 5 : ./// , C , #)
.*9 ) .*K > , I ,
-٢٤٤ -
3
70B 0' ' + + 9 c1 FG +9 .V
. FG ' . /5 / 74 5 ( ' 9/ (4 +5 .a
0! U / / J9 +9 & (1 "g 84 & (4 / 7! 0 0/9 8 351 9 1 & 351 + 4.
0 01 0& 0 5! 84 5 /9 8 L! H% (0! 7 A 89 U I1 89 I L! %
' 0' AI.! A G /9 & %& +"/ -! ;9
80 0/ 0 0' H + 75 (%MPQa% ) ! & /9 8 351 (
J- 51 ;9 (! 89 .51 8 ' %& ( % MPPQSP% ) ! /9
8 U!- AI.! (1 H%/ 51 -I* AI.! 4! J 7 /9 8 . /9
0! 0 0! ;0 -!/ =! + B! 7 )'
+04! 70 ; 69 ;% B ; +9 ( ' G
0 ! +9 & 8. (! U ( ' 9
60 ' * 8 (5! U! / ' 9 + /E
04 80" 0! ( A I" 9 7 : %
' F & (0 0 +09 & 8. (9 !B /* ( 8" >!/ ! + +9
701! 051 ! U !4 I1 . ! 89 / U.
!" ( 6/ +9 = -!9 ( U U* ) I I! x
. n 6/ 3 )* %
$9 C4
( 091 +9 L c1 ' ) - ! & 8. 4 6 '
--0& 91 +9 (! 35 B C
Y 5 ! 84 0 0 0/ 0 ' U ' 4 n !4 U '
+09 90 0
I* & 9 > /&
. - +5 5/ ^/ 5 A -9 > 91
(0 +.0 0
U U 8/ 9 8 A ( ' U1 9 0 30! "0 01 / !/ J9 -9 J U! /!
(0/ 8.0 0 ' L / .. A' !/ . = c ' <"
0 ' ; 8 J!! ( 4 > ' I
I1 6 J
6& 74 ( 69 ;% ( 1 / ' -9
. 8. I- ! -' 9 ( ! ) ( A.!
-٢٤٥ -
-٢٤٦ -
P
אPאIP(
P0A1DP+אP+;אPא
א,6
א−٣−١−٤
:א
+09 04 K' H* ! ( ! !B /* & 8. &
A0 0' 09 A RPPS 8 " / -* ! % %5 >!/ ! +
. !B 9
@0 -K' ( (/ ! I" 5 ! 84 /* / %&
0! 70 U >!/ ! + +9 4 & & & / G U 9
"0 0! ( D J%9 ' (" ! ( '.& J/ 74 /*
89 4' D +5! @ 4 F1 & 69
U ! ! 4 (1
;E0 6K' H% 74 %& /* 5 & ' !B 7 U. & ! 7
J%9 ' 8
4 % 89 A* K! @ ! 4 4 &
. ! 4 (1 " !B ( : ^ M4C F% ).);).)K
/ 84! 7 1 G = / 4 – . 0! (0 ! "g +9 8 G 0 74 C-! ! ( -%1 44 +1 8
>!/ ! + +9 5 /'
!0 7B $%
& ! A %5 ! 7B A (1 ! +0 7' 9G c1 (1 c1 +<5/ A' & > ;% B . ( 0& '.G! 7 FG 9 ! ; (/ U (/ -! A !
(M)
. 74 ' 8
;% 9 ;" x 71
09 (! 7& >!/ ! + +9 4 G ;%5 W! /
8 0& U0 / < /9 ? ! 7Y %5! ] )* !
.
(R)
/9 8 (" "B % 8 /9 8 <5& / 4
J!! = . MNOM8 ! ( ! (! 5 7! WI & QJ
-/ (9 -& 8. <! -4! ' 8 ] 8 -g C.
04! ) ! ( ! ! ) 7 ! < D ? ! ! +9
(OP) 80 (9 .+9 (9 ' /% ' - / 8 H%! ( ! 91 +9 9K!
: H% @.
. &>,I , C 4 $ , 34 I#G, ^ M4C : &''K , ,7# % )
1
,C 4 , ^ M4C 2 I4 IM : &''K , , [M )
2
. .&> , I
-٢٤٧ -
5 7 # C C C 7 4 (A' ) 2
(&''K)./A9 )
&''K
&''&
&'''
.///
.//(
.//9
.//'
./A9
RM,NPP
RM,VPP
M`,NPP
Ma,MPP
MS,SNS
MV,Mba
MV,NPR
`,PMM
! ! MO,MPP
M`,OPP
MS,bPP
MV,bPP
MR,Oba
MM,P`a
O,`OM
O,RPS
! ! aP,MPP
Va,bPP
VV,SPP
R`,`PP
RO,aSN
Ra,RVO
RR,bOV
MS,RMb
! ! +9
aRM,OVP
aPb,MRP
aPP,NMN
VPS,V`S
VPS,V`S
R``,NOR
RaM,aSV
VSV
9G ! 91 +9
N,S
O,S
O,V
N,P
N,V
O,`
N,a
a,V
& ! ! +9% !
! 91 +9 9&
Escwa , based on IMF , Direction of trades tatistics ycar book (2005-1987) : (1 ! ( 9G 91 +9 & ! ! +9 ! (OP) 8 (9 !
0 A0 ;0 D0/ I. ! $%
(%MP ) ( UI / (RPPaQMNOS ) +5
! %
) ! ( ! 9 I" 9 5 +"/ 8? ! ;
0. - "/ /* / ! ; 74 J? (0 80 >0 H ! 9 -' I - G / ,
(M)
.(-! !
0! +09 !0 + 9 69 ! ! +9 B H%
: ' c1 9G +9 ' !
. A F& 1 ! ! 8 ' 9G +4 7. .M
. ! ! +9 --9 G /9 4 .R
. +9 $%
1 (/
C. .V
0' 60 C01! Fe " (' A ' 7! ! ! 9 J? .a
. + ! 8 7
0 0-! 0' 0! 9 ! ! / ! ( C1 .S
( R)
. -
0-9 (0 -' ( !9B & ! ( 9 .b
. "E ; 8 ' 9 ! ! 91 .`
04 0 (0 -0 7?G (" ! ! +9
6 , C C! 34 , 2 C :.//A , , )
1
. ..9> , 3M , . ٣٤٦ ص، o ذآ+G ﻡ ﺱ..... رة ا"ر! ا ر$%ا: ٢٠٠١، ا، - 2
-٢٤٨ -
0! + +9 4 & <9 9 ? !9 $%
U .(M)...... -
. MNNO 8 U<! H* ! ( g . <1 ' C-! >!/
: C ^ M4C 3B )&);).)K
0' +0*! J0 ! + +9 4 ' -. <9 74 I5 &
; FG 3 "/B +I5 & , ]G W! @
0/9 0! 0 $%
+' ! ' x & ? 6
0-9 0 +4 J/ FG -9 (%! . ? J/ -44
8.0 ! !9B FG ' -9 ;4 FG / & '.& !9B FG '
J09 & %
!B A /* 5 A ! +9 & : J/ I5 9
5.0 /& & 3! -.! ! 7B ]5 9! 1 7 A ;E QM
04 09 0 9/ *! 9 ! /G 4
& 4 8 & + (/ ( $%
;B +5
A ! ! 9 ! 89 FG ' + 74 +9
J%09 (0! "0 809 + A9* $%
(" , & !9B (
. 4 4 % " 1! 91 7B "
04 80 (.05! 9G +4 A ! /
+& /& QR
. 9 ! L /*
L0' 0! ! & + & /* W! ' ( ' 4 $%
(" ' 74
]5 J9 & %
' 74 " > U & U FG
! + ! U4' c1 /& 3! -.! 7B
: ^ M4C % I4 $7 1 ););).)K
+09 4 & 8. <9G 9 ; ! 4 %1 4 8/B"4!
: 3% $C >!/ !
04 J09! >0!/ 0! +0 +09 04 5 8. 4' QM
. MNN`8 b 8
0I A0. A0 C A' 8/ <" )* ! 9 ! ] QR
. MNNO 8 % 4 8/ <" J? A
. ٢٧٠ص، o ذآ+G ﻡ ﺱ.... ، د ا)ﺹة1%23ت اA,ا: ١٩٩٧ ،دX ﻡ، G ز- ،دXﺵ- 1
-٢٤٩ -
c10 8 <"! (" "B % JI. /9 8 9 351 QV
(M)
. 4 8/B U4' !
. ! ( A A +9 8 Qa
0-! 0I" 5 & & ! >!/ ! + +9 4 5 %5 (9 -4 I" 5 ' 74 %
/9 351 J A' +/E ! ( !
809 +0 0' 0 0 ( ... ! B 7 ) ! ( A
(OR,`P) & RPPP 8 (ab,SP) 5 4' & +' ! "
(R)
09& 0 (%SP) 1 L ' ! " $%
/ RPPV 8
.
. L 8" L $ ! "
! ! ! 8 JI. A9 <=& 8 4' ! A 7 5 & '
! /9 8 351 (9! LG ;9 / 9 ("! ( ! AI.!
+0 +09 4 %5 ]9& (- +! +4 I" 5 & ' >1B ! !
. >!/ !
0 ! A 4' ( B ) ! ( 3! ! I" 5 (! 89 ( A . -! 9 (! + C-! 0 09 !/ U -. (.5! 6 C. & $%
& ' -!
(V)
. /9 8 +5
0- ' 6 8 ;% 91 D9 ( ! + +9 4 <*& 75
05 A0 '0.& )* % AI.! /9 8 <5& 8 , RPPa 8
' 75 ;% ;9 (! > A' ' 91 " + (5
80 ( MNNO 8 ( S )9 D9 ( ! ;9 (! 89 /
& ,0 (09 %
' U U4 %
( SP) & RPPa
AI.0! 80 70I 0& 0! W01 ( AI.! (1 A & ;E 5
: ! ! +9 ' ; ! 4 9 </* 8
! (OM) 8 (9
(٤)
. , 16
2 # 1VC 2 47 : &''. , % ,+M )
1
. /; > , 1 , C 1 @
, 9& > &''K , B , 2 C \ DCH 15 X
J! VC )
2
www . moft . go : C P $7Y
14 +C X
, &''K , C 2
5 # 3H% ^ M4C )
3
;'> , B , B M4C 2 # 2
. www.Iqtissadya.com P $7Y &''K , = 2 M4C )
-٢٥٠ -
4
C # + 4M D (A.) 2
% &''K
% &'''
% .//9
1C
RS,Vb
VO,Mb
RO,RP
!
Ra,aN
!
RR,aM
!
RM,PV
N,P`
B
N,PN
G
MR,RO
B
Escwa , based on IMF , Direction of trade statistics yearbook , 2001 ; IMF , Direction of : trade statics quarterly September 2005
! -9 I ! 9 /* (9 +09 0/ L9 RPPa 8 ( %RS,Vb ) ! ! +9 , !
.! A ! +9 / L9 (%Ra,a ) ! !
0 0 0! $%0
! + +9 4 (/* I" 5 $%
C- &
0' -! ' ! ! + * > 9G + -! 9
!0 ' ! F (- C 5 $%
+"/ . /9 9 & &
. ! ( 91 +9 9& ' ! ! +9
2 + 2 J ^ M4C 5 H% )K);).)K
: ! ( 4 ! + ' + ! +9 4 IG *
: (OR) 8 (9 6. %
. ! ( & 6 ! 351
( &''K ).//( ) 5 2 + 2 /A&/ 2
RPPa
RPPV
RPPR
RPPM
RPPP
MNNN
MNNO
MNN`
MRObR`
O`MMS
NaNbb
SOMRS
SSMbV
MVaSM
MRa`O
MSROM
RN,N
RP,O
RM,M
MS,a
MO,S
RM
M`,N
Rb,M
Mb,a
MV,a
MM,N
N,a
`,V
O,V
`,N
O,S
B
; 91 ;9 (! 9&
! ( & !
%
( !
%!
. E + F ( &''9).//A ) Z D J F : 0& 0! + ! + +9 4 5 (9 : / 5 7! %5 ! +5 (1 (/*! .51 ! -٢٥١ -
8 (% MS,a )& MNNO 8( % R`,N) ! ( & ! .51 QM
. ( % RP,O) k! RPPV 8 U A5 RPPM
!0 / RPPM 8 5' J! RPPM 8 U<! ! ( ! + QR
. RPPa 8( %Mb,a) ! (%N,a) 0! (0! 09& ]0 %& 0! ;0 ;09 (! ' D QV
0 (0! RPPa 8 + (MRObR` ) MNN` 8 + (MS,RO)
.U 9 ! ! ; ! 4 ! ( %
(% RV,N )k! ;
!0 0' U 0. U.51 H
9' c1 ' :(OV) 8 (9 6. %
! ( & (&''K).//() Z 2 P + C + 2 /A;/ 2
&''K
&'';
&''&
&''.
&'''
.///
.//A
.//(
RP,`
Mb,V
MM,VR
RM,M
MP,VO
`,aM
`,S`
`,`b
MV,a
MN,O
Ra,PS
SP,RN
aR,RV
SP,Ma
V`,NV
V`,b`
bNO
aSR
a`a
OMS
bbO
SMP
aNS
SPN
B
( !
%!
( & !
%!
! ;9 (! 9&
*
'
. E + F ( &''9 ).//A ) Z D J F : . ( &''9 ).//A ) Z + M *
0 0 9* "/ ! A 9* 5 (OV) 8 (9 @.
809 0/ 0! 0 809 89 J 4' ] 8 A
: / H% 89 !/ (% RM,M )0& MNNN 80( % `,aM) ! ( A ! 5 QM
0 0 3051 0& H0% (% MM,VR )& RPPR 8 .51 8" RPPM 8
RPPM 8 (M)
(M,NPV) & RPPP 8 ( V,RMR) @. (/*! RPPM 8
.
0 (% SP,Ma )0=! %& MNNN 80 U<! ! ( & ! 5 QR
80 ( %aR,RV) ! 8" MNNO 8( %VO) / ! 9&
. RPPa 8 (% MV,a )& .51 8" RPPM 8 (% SP,RN ) 8" RPPP
...*> MC IC &''& + M )
-٢٥٢ -
1
0? ;9 (! ' U U H
9 ;9 (! 9G !! QV
. ; 8 351 J!! UI" RPPM 8 ! !%!% 84 80 90 351 +5 ! ( 9* 5 & 9* 5 / A 35 A <=& .5 /9
L0 ' (" J? & %& L 8 - & C5 (/*! / ! (
. I%= W
: J!Y H% / 8 5 7! W
A4 /
+& 8 351 ' F 4 +5 8 .M
80 0 L04 L C* / L4 H% ' E
. '/ 8
B 8 %& c1
( ' I (%NP ) 9 %& (/ D D' L ! L4 & .R
0 !40 "0 69 1 & 9 ! - !
. D' (/
70 ! J? ' & J!B ' A + ? C/ & .V
. + <5& 9* E E /* ' G (! B %
(
& 91 4 4 J? .a
. +G 8 8 1 J? t* ' E ! C. .S
(M)
. -& A 9 (1 ( ! ( 3! 9 .b
I" 5 &: A I" 5 % ! ( A ;9 (! c1 ' 0-. ( G – ! – – ! – B ) ! ( 3! A .5 %
:( $%
A ;9 (! ! (Oa) 8 (9 ' IG
( &''K).//() 5 DCH 15 1$ 2 P + 2 /AK/ 2
&''K
&'';
&''&
&''.
&'''
.///
.//A
.//(
MON
RMN
RPa
R`O
R`b
MbN
RPN
MNN
( $%
VaM
V`S
VOb
SbN
SSb
SNM
SbP
b`S
( $%
& SVP
SNa
SNP
Oa`
OVR
`SN
`bN
O`a
;9 (!
bR,N
ba,O
ba,SN
bM,bO
bS,Pb
SV,N`
bM,MP
S`,`V
bV,M
bV,`
ba,aO
`P,MP
`R,M`
`a,`V
bS,MP
`V,bP
(0 0 9& & ; !
% 5 %
(0 0& 0 & ( $%
& !
# 1M% - , + J ^ M4C 5 UDC : &''K , , )
. FO C P C M C
-٢٥٣ -
1
%!
bP,V
bV,`
ba,aS
b`,MP
bN,bS
bO,O`
b`,MS
bN,R`
(0 A (! & ( $%
;9 (! !
%!
J 5 HY 2 # >7 R4M VC : &''9 , : "O P C M C # 1M% - , + C R4M
C4 J B HY 2 C : (Oa) 8 (9 !
."! " RPPP 8 U<! (/*! 5 ( – 809 04! ( $%
& U U -* 8 : ( $%
& – J
. MNN` 8 74 (0! 89 4! 6 ? RPPP 8 U<! ( $%
A ;9 (! 5 QF
. MNN` 8 74
+0 0' 0- +9 WI 74 8 >!/ ! + +9 4 5 9 7! W0! %5 69 + J!! H% ! ( C51 :
(M)
' (" . 4
0 0! 9 ! ] ! 8I 1 +G C. (R)
. %5! <.B ( 8 8 6!
. I" > 7 4' . ' C1 ! FG (/
6!* . B C1 B <.B ( L U '5* 8 c4 09 -0 = ' 9 !!
. G <9G 0 +0 +5 9 %5 +' ( <" . +9 . 4 9 7' 9/ .&; > , W$ I P ... , C C! 34, 2 C : .//A , , )
1
.'> , W$ I P .. .. 34 I#G ^ M4C : &''K , ,7# % -2
-٢٥٤ -
. ) 8 - 9 .>!/ ! + +9 5 ' : 17 I
# %
U U J ! ( ' 1 +9 /% ! / ; ' 1 +9
A0 0! +09 9& (%Ra) ! ' 8- , ! 91 +9 '
89 / M(%RS) k! +9 ' 1 +9 J4 ! 1
;0 . ( H ' - ! H%/ ! ( ' 5 1 +9
-' 1 ! ( (/ ! & H% ; 4
0 D B (" ' U! U J 4 % ! ( 5'
0/ 0! ( 4! 89 U"/ 75 1 - 89 J=
. ( 4! U'1 - 75 1 -
0( %bP )0 -0 k! %& 1 + ! ( + ' )
0 01 A0 - (%SP ) B ! 1 A - 9&
(R)
. (% aP )J= (%VV )D ( %RS )
(/*0 4! 1 (%Mb,b )! 1 ! ! ("
0! 0 (/*0 / - 9& (%MR,b) ! A ! 0 (%`,b ) A0 ! - A 41 D (MR,S )! D 1
0 09& (%b,R) ! 1 ! =! ! A D 09& 0 (%M`,R )!0 A0 0! 0 0 (/*0 04! 01 (V)
. A -
L0 0' k0! <.B ( ! > 1 +9 89 & +*G 9
80 0! 0 7 89 %`V 1 L ' 7 89 %NV . 7 89 %a > ' ! $%
9
. ١٢٦ ص، + ا ا- 1
, + 5 , ^ M4C 5 # 1 C 2 : &''K , , ) 2
. ..9> , I
;.> , &''K ,
2 , ^ M4C # 17 P- )
-٢٥٥ -
3
! א
א
א
3 1 7 / ") ' U
U ! ; ' 91 +9 ( J
. 1t! (/*! --9 91 7B A ( / -' J
80 (0! 91 +9 ") 5/ 5! ( 91 +9 ! D/
%/
69B C1 ' +<5/! ( 8 9 +9' 4
'0 !. <9& 4' C ' A (/*! 9 *B J9
(M)
. g 7 g -/ 0 91 91 ( C ( ' +9 91 +9! 4 1 ' ( ' ' U U J ' 8 0/ 0. 04 5' ;9 -* ( ( "/ 6 U U
(I0 !0 0/ 0 4' "/! !/ ? 4' ' 1 91 34 A "/B 7B " *! "
. I* % (
:אא
א
א3
א−١−٢−٤
09 W! ( ' 1 /& 6/ ! C 8-
- 84 c1 L4 U. 84 8 L4 ( J9 K' '
0& +0*G ! G %
' 5/ 351 A ' +
0I -! 8 8 A4 ) A! -
804 0/ ;0 0 + / %& ! C !
80 L04 B 3! ' C 1 (! C
. c1 L4
C0 C (/ * ! MNbb 8 ' ' c1 4 / 4
809 0 0!/B <9! ; ;9 C "I ' 8
+ 9 ' 1
(R)
. ' ' (
VC =7 + @ , 2 7 6 : &''; ," , = )
1
. &''; 2% /.K).' , _ , ,. *9 > I – 1
- , 2 14 + # VC : &''' , ,
C )
-٢٥٦ -
2
804 0 ' 1 ' E !/ ; ;9 C C0-! H% F1 (1 ' 9 (! -)! 9 7B 81! C
(M)
. 91 8 A ( ' C 91 1 ;9 * 8
=! %& 9G W ' U (%SP )! 8
1 ;9 * (RPPaQMNNP ) +05 (1 U (%OP) ' L4 + 9& 6
0 (%bS )0 %0 ' ' 5 89 (%`S )& 65 89 ' c1 ( (R)
. RPPa 8 ' ' AI
. >1B C ; ;9 C !
A0 04 ' 34 9& ; ;9 C ! (OS) 8 (9
: >1B C 6
M (&''9)./A') 5 # XM ! " /A9/ 2
٢٠٠٥
١٩٩٢
١٩٩٠
١٩٨٠
١٣٦.٧٢١ ١٢٨.٥١١ ١٢١.١١٣ ١٩٦.٣٩ ١٦٢.٨ ١٤٥.٤ ١٣٨.٤ ١١٩.٧
٨٩.٩
٥٩.٠
١٣.٦٩
; ;9 C
٣١.٢٣٨
٢٩.١٣٨
٢٤.٠٢٠
٢٣.٢
١٣.٤
١٥.٥
١٥.٥
١٤.٥
١٣.٣
٨.٦
٠.٥
C
١٢.٣٦٤
٧.٣٣٤
٦.٨٧٣
٥.١
٢.٣
٢.٥
٢.٩
٣.٧
٢.٥
١.٤
٠.٢
C
٣٥.٧٤١
٢٥.٩٢٤
٢٥.١٣٧
٢٤.٦
٢٢.٦
٢٠.٢
١٨.٦
١٥.٤
٨.٧
٥.١
٠.٧
;4 C
٢١.٢١٣
١٦.١٩١
١٥.٣٤٥
١٣.١
١١.٤
١٠.١
١٠.٧
١٠.١
٩.٣
٤.٧
٠.٣
!* C C
٢٣٨.٢٧٧ ٢٠٧.٠٩٩ ١٩٢.٤٨٨
٢٦٣.٠
٢١٢.٥ ١٩٣.٣ ١٨٦.١ ١٦٣.٤ ١٢٣.٨
٧٨.٨
١٥.٦
34 L9
٧٦.٦
٧٤
٨٩
٦٢
٢٠٠٢
٦٢.٩
٢٠٠٠
٧٥
١٩٩٧
١٩٩٦
٧٥
١٩٩٥
B
١٩٩٤
٥٧.٣
٢٠٠٤
٧٤
٧٣
٧٢
& ;9 C !
L9
.E + F, ( &''* – ./A. ) Z D J 1 : k0! ,0 ' ( ; ;9 C (OS) 8 (9 ! RPPR 8 ' (% `S )6! ; + (MNb,V ) 34 9& 6
: 9 <9 * / %
' ( A! ( ! >1B !B C 84
>01B *0 04! A 4! ; ' +!/ ! ;9 * . /
809 0 0 3=! ; ;9 C A (/ (/*! 8 L4 ( . -! / E
. &&> , I , 1C , # 7 " : &''9 , I ,C )
1
. ( &''9).//. ) Z + + " +C M )
2
-٢٥٧ -
0' $ & U ; ;9 C A ( c1 8 ) ;9 L4 ( . 6!1 +9 (9
( 90 J0! 04 5 ) 81 1 89 L5 . C %
7 %5 ;%0 B ( ) 91 8 A ( ' c1 C . 6* 6 / " 04 701 " A'0 I & AI 4 & +4 9 C H . .4 .4 ! +0B +0 0& ;E0 ' -9 ' ;9 C 1. 5 ;% B
0 0! <0=& ,0! A! H% <. ' >1B *B J 9
0! I! J%9 +4 ' +!1 C H ' c1
. /* 1 C ,K! ] . RPPM/a/Mb i /RO/ 8 4 L0 80 L04 0& 0 304 0-! ' ' C ! 0' 60 0 %0
' - (9 (9B +4 34 & '.G! +9
: (Ob) 8 (9
. M ( &''9 – ./A' ) 5 267 1 4M [C " /A*/ 2
! J! C
XM !
C
% XM
C
`M,R
MP,NSa
SN,`
C
M,bVa
P,bbV
P,OSV
`,OPa
MNOP
RR,MR
a,RPM
V,MaV
M,SS`
MV,RM`
MNOS
`V
`N,M
S,M
S,V
O,N
S`,O
MNNP
`R
NN,M
b,N
S,N
MR,M
`M,S
MNNM
`R
MRS,M
O,`
b,O
MS,b
NP,V
MNNR
bN
MbV,b
MM,V
Mb,O
M`,S
MMa,M
MNNV
`R
M`O,`
MS,a
a,O
MN,`
MRa,O
MNNa
`M
RPM,M
MO,b
a,O
RM,R
MaR,`
MNNS
`M
MRa,b
RP,a
a,N
RR
MSR,b
MNNb
`M
RVO,O
RR,O
S,N
Ra,a
MbN,R
MNN`
bb,a
RaV,b
Ra,M
a,N
RV,a
MbV,R
MNNO
`R,S
RbV,Nb`
Ra,N`
b,a
RV,V
MNM,V
RPPP
bR,b
RbN,`S`
Ra,M
O,V
a`,S
MbO,N
RPPM
SM,V
RaS,S`a
RS,V
N,b
b`
MRS,N
RPPR
aV,S
ROb,NOP
VS,M
MN,O
OR,a
MRa,O
RPPV
VN,O
VVP,MPP
a`,V
Rb
OS,V
MVM,a
RPPa
-٢٥٨ -
B
VN
aRM,SVV
ba,M`V
R`,NPP
OP,VaR
MSb,SOM
RPPS
.E + F (&''* – ./A. ) Z D : ! (/* , 5 4! 9 34 + (Ob) 8 (9 (1 RPPP 80 %`R,S 0 091 +09 L4 34 ! A9 8? 5
: J!B & H% A9 ' 34 89 RPPa 8 ' %N,O&
. L ( & 34 8B 84 69 QM
90 0 ( <* ( ; ;9 C 3 QR
. ( ;/ * – J! – 4)
0 % a` 0 1 A +9 (/* , * 4! ;9 * 89 QV
. +9 & -9 34 %- ' 9G W 89
. 51 (/*)! 9 *B & ' 44 3I5 69 Qa
/%0 +0 J!0 & 91 +9 L & 34 ! ' A9 & 9 @5 8 ( 84 ; ;9 C 9 QM: -
A'0! <05/ 0 @5 +9 ( ' >1B C & E9 0 A'0 H9 351 ' 84 ; ;9 C : (O`) 8 (9 6. %
.
(M)
&''9 – .//' )5 + + " 15 ! 7 /A(/ 2
(
7 R4 7 !
" 15 !
" 15 !
(&) B
(.) + +
%+
79.5
`aRMO
59030.4
MNNP
82.2
`VONO
89860.3
MNNR
MaR
N`aMO
138397.3
MNNS
RMP
`SaSV
158665.5
MNNO
48.6
aPV`RS
196393
RPPP
40.4
abVNRV
187973
RPPM
34.1
SaObOV
187340.2
RPPR
24.1
SPMOP`
MRMMMV
RPPV
www.alalam.ekt.com : 1CC P # # [6 : &''9 , ,
C )
-٢٥٩ -
1
22.5
S`RPVV
MROSMM
RPPa
Ma,S
NRbbbN
MVaRbV
RPPS
. E + F ( &''*– .//. ) Z D J 1 : 0' H*0 ? H
91 +9 ( ' X95 351 %
k! 8 %& 1 C 9 A ( ' U. U J L4 %
(
. RPPS 8 (% 14.5 ) > ( C ( 5 U9 .51 !! & ' 8 ( 1 ;9 ) ; ' -9 & QR
4. 5 C 8 ! RPPa 8 4' % bV & 0I - , !" 6< 9 !/ (/*! (0! 0 0& C -4 34 8 ;9 C - A40! 0- A'0 A4 +G - <4 $ 9 / @!
0 0' 4! - $%
& +1B +5 ' 8? U4 !9B
RPPV 8 ( MMPP 8 ) 4 +9 + . + 4.
80 = ; ;9 C 7 @5! 6!9! . g D/ I -
(0! 304 ' ' I 7 %`S H ;% ; ;9 C & QV
0!4 L9 +!/ ! ' c1 L4 & (9B + I - 84
. / /* E & J
% I - 34
6& %& C ( +! @' 7 ( & Qa
0 0/ % MPR !0! k! %
(/ = ! & ; @5 . ;9 C > !9B A4! +9
6. %
. 8 L4 & 34 -! ; ;9 C ! : (OO) 8 (9
(&''9).//') 5 F 1 4M C 15 C F /AA/ 2
1 4M
%C
R4M
%_ R4M
%>7 R4M
%
R4M
V,Sa
P,SV
Mb,`R
`N,R
MNNP
`,NP
P,SR
MN,SO
`V
MNNM
`,S
P,VN
RP,ab
`M,b
MNNR
a,NR
P,RR
MN,Na
``,N
MNNV
b,SM
P,VM
RV,aR
bN,`b
MNNa
S,ON
P,Ra
RS
bO,O
MNNS
-٢٦٠ -
B
b
P,RS
Ra,NS
bO,O
MNNb
S,`P
P,Mb
Ra,NS
bN,R
MNN`
S,ba
P,MV
RS,VO
bO,O
MNNO
S,VN
P,MP
Ra
`P,S
MNNN
S,V`
P,PO
Ra,VP
`P,R
RPPR
N,ba
P,Pb
RO,S
bM,O
RPPV
MP,RR
P,PO
Va,S
SS,R
RPPa
S,Ob
P,Pa
aR,O
SM,V
RPPS
.E + F , (&''*).//. ) Z D J 1 : ( % `P,R ) ( ") 8 L4 - 5 ! 34 A &
80 0 0' RPPa 8 ' (% SS,R )& .51 ! $%
& RPPR 8 ' 34
9& (%bP )!! 8
6 8?! - (%Ra,V) ! & c1 L4 (
. 8 D5 (1 8 L4 (%Vb )(!4 AI
>1B 4 ! 8 L4 & U . $ (! 4' H% B C4 L4 E ( 6.& 4! +I5 351 3 <9& (- '
<09 ( 0B 7 W E J! A +9 E ) 8
0 50 9& (%SP )(! B ") %& 8 L4 5 !/B
0E 0! 0( % VN,N) !0 0 >01B % ! RPPR 8 ' 8 L4
80 L04 E @ .65 8 ' 8 L4 & ] C (9 (M)
(%MP,M)
0 304 ! & . " -1 J ; ;9 C U . ;
L04 J!! RPPa 8 ' (%Va,S ) & MNNP 8 (% Mb,` ) 5 c1 L4
0/ 01 9& t* & A9* ;% MNNM 8 " J4 ' c1
' ;9 A. C-! c1 L4 ! ] & '.& 7! ' +9 ?
L4 + & H% +!/ ( ( 8 L4 - ( / '
8 - ! L5 E ' 1 89 L5 & ;9 ( 8
. 34 ! 9
609! 0' ;0 ;09 C %1 91 +9 L < C-! 6K' H%
'0 ]G 74 ' 8
4 9 +9 L4 : <9G H 8
91 +9 A J ;% *
C0/ .0 RPPR/N/Ra i0! SVVb 8 4 7' ( (- QM
8- ( J? 8 !9B A4 @! ; ;9 C
. 6 + F , &''9 D )
-٢٦١ -
1
0 8 +& A C-! 8- F B 0 +0 C-! H% A ; ;9 C !9B A4
!90 0/ 04 %
&
(M)
. 91 7B ' ' - 0 !" H% 44 ( .
. +
0- c1 C FG B c1 L4 ( QR
$%
( 8 , . ( 1 C ;9 C )!9B A4! (!
804 C0! 1 (B 1 ! (/*0 $%0
C . $%
<9 (! ;/ C
0 J C1 C 6)! %
c1 L4 "/ %SP U!4
70 0. 0- + !/ 4 H% 89 ? 7 '
0! ;0 ;09 C0 804 / . J 351! H% 4
@05 0 -0 ( 9 .5 <9G 4 351 /&
. C0/ ()! / <9G ()! - (.' 84! ; ;9 C 84 / QV
0& W1 ( U1 F1 != <9G /
. 1g -4 - 75 - $%
! , C +* "4' c1 L4 (! 1 1 C ] Qa
0 0 0-9 2 FG H% !9B . ( (4 I ) U 1 t*
! 74 9 C 7 9& 4 %
I C- & (4 / U%&
8 c1 L4 6! 84 B 4/ 6! 84
. 5/ 351 (9 !9B A4 ' ;E F1 + 9
0'/ 0 4 ! 9 J 69& + ! 3- & %&
. -9& A J ! - 4 A9 @ FG! 34 !
:
א
א
א0א66א−٢−٢−٤
(09 0' L04 %
6! ;% (1 91 +9 1 1 B !
01 0 <!'. ! 1 1 ' 1 91 +9 .1 Www.iqtissadya.com ,s + + @ # : &''; ,5 , 2 )
-٢٦٢ -
1
C
B 9 91 +9 *E A.! c1 8
H
/ " 1
:
(M)
0! 1 1 ' 91 +9 0B 0 0 (4 ,! /- J/ =QM
. C +
0! 0! A ;9 ( D 91 8 A QR
. ; (/ 74
09 0 0 <0!B C51 7 8 7 A9*QV
. L5 J!! 91 7 ' -5 ' ! . I- H- + A (! -G /- A FG A9* (Qa
. 91 8 A (! AQS
+9 + 7 - *! ") 1 7 -6
.6 f (1 ; ' & '.G! 91
+09 L ! 1 1 (1 ' 1 " ! :(ON) 8 (9 6. %
1 (! U 4 91
# 1H ! J! C 7 447 F 7 R4 1H/ A/ / 2
R4 1H C
R4 1H
! J! 7
7
% 1H
aP,M
MNO`
aNSa
MN`PQMNbb " 1 1
ab,R
VbNO
OPPPP
MN`SQMN`M "" 1 1
VM,`
M`MbO
SaMbb
MNOPQMN`b ! 1 1
Ra,M
RaSMP
MPMaNV
MNOSQMNOM 1 1 1
VP,`
abMVP
MSPPPP
MNNPQMNOb 1 1
Vb,N
OVRRR
RRSMaR
MNNSQMNNM ! 1 1
aa,a
MaNbaO
VVbOOM
RPPPQMNNb" 1 1
VP,b
M`VRNR
SbbPNO
RPPbQRPPM 1 1
1H . 7 R4M 7 447 , 447 D3 , = D : :(ON) 8 (9 !
K..> , W$ I P .... L + 4 : ./A; , C ,N )
-٢٦٣ -
1
01 0' 01 " & 91 +9 L ' " %5 ! L5QM
<0=& 8 MN`P 8 % 6 H% > (%ab,R Q%aP,M ) !! "" "
0? 091 +9 7 . (! c1 L4 -!9! @ 8 4 3!
70! H% 91 +9 - <4! / / W! 1
(0 0 0 84 ; ! 4 ' /* (M)
. + 9 + 9 ( A 5 4 !
0B 9 H% (%Ra,M) & 1 1 1 ' !/ (/*! " ! A9 QR
c04 91 9 ; ! 4 - 0/ G ' 1 ! + C 81 !9B A4
+09 L0 "0 A09 0& '0.G! 6 9G ! ' 9 0 ' (1 6! 1 C. & +/% 1 ' 91
0 '0.K! "0 1 ( B L5 ' " 51 . * !/
! ! 5 F& A9* H- * / 4 QV
c1 L4 ( 8 A4 ) E U/ MNON 8 %
8
G ? 91 +9 L ' c1 L4 +
0 ! ; 74 C-! 91 +9 " %5 ! + '
. ' ;9 >01B 0 04 "0 A0 04 " + 8? 6 &
0 0' U I U9 H
9 ( 1 1 ' %RO,S % M`,b)
1 3! ( MNNMQMNNP – MNON ) 8B <"! 1 1 8 ' ;9
: (NP) 8 (9 6! %
! 7 447 # + / /'/ 2
= . 2 + SMNQ
" 1
`VMNQ
"" 1
SS``Q
! 1
MMMRMQ
1 1
MVSa+
1
bPO`Q
! 1
. K* > , W$ I P .... W4 I#G + # +MC VC : &''' , , C )
-٢٦٤ -
1
O`OQ
" 1
`OPPS Q
1
. ;.9> , 7 R4 7 447 # 1 J 1 : : (NP) 8 (9 8 = ! 351 9 1 1 1 ' ;9 9 85 .M
0 9& 351 (/ C
B! 4
0/ ? @ A9 A 4!
+ ! +1B % $/ *- A (9 ' c1 L4 *
0' 801 + ' U " $ / ! 1 J '
80 9G AI.! 89 9 7B ' 351 J!! I
80 & '.G! 91 7B - ) - + I4 ! !
WI0 H% J 4' * >9 B ! '/ +
<0! 90! 01 1 ' " ( .' ;9 !
0& 5 ! A (/*! 1. 9 -5/ L5 *! %5
(M)
. ! "g H% H MNOS 8 (% RO,b)
+0 0 W0 + (bPO` )& ( ;% ! 1 1 ' 9 L5 . R
3051 ( ) - B L5 91 3051 0 A04 ! & ' 5 ! ( ! . ' A9 6 J %
U 5 80 +9 9 3I5 74 1 1 + 8 & ' /% 52 J!B &
(R)
. ! 1 1 3I5 ' %V & (
0' 10 J0 89 + /E 8
; ( 6 8I 9 7! W
0 09 ! ' 4 91 +9 + (/*! . 0 0 09 ,0 60 01 80 += / +9 1 %5 WI 01 A0. 0 ! H% 8 & ;9 9 A5 / - 1 0 4 1 1 91 +9 +9 1 . ! ! 6& (! 4' L4 . ) 91 +9 /*& ( &
. &9& > , &''' , I , , # MC , ,
` )
1
, I , # 7 447 , # - P : .//A , 4 ,# )
2
. ;.9 > , 2 -٢٦٥ -
:
א
א
א0/
+א+@
אאAא−٣−٢−٤
*! !9B " 89 +! +9 ( ' 9 8 8
0! +0 +. A " I "/ I! 71 (! (/! ( . 6/* L
!/ J%9 5/ ( 8 69 ;% !/B ; - 9 & - 0 0 0 0 5 74 A / +<5/ % " /
0*! " 7 & /* 5. ( ' *! !9B " %1) !
(M)
. - F I +)* % 7 9 L* '
01 < 4 ( ' +*! !9B " H!*0 F0 0! D04 @! 6& 1 ( '
809 0-' 0 0 J (1 A 3 8-5 i > 0 0/ ' 4 ! /* > ! (B DE 4'
H- FG "E . *! ? *! -4*! !9B " (R)
. !"
"0 0/ 809 4' H ") H% ' 6! - (/*! (1
. +I5 C : CB H 1 ).);)&)K
c01 L04 ( ' 8 ' U
U *! !9B " 7' !
0 ( G E 4 91 (E.
" H% 6 !. <5G 7?K! *! !9B " J%9 8 J9 /
(V)
: <9G 4! ") !9B
0 04 0 ! .M
0 .05 "0 0/ -! -!9& $%
(/' (
. +. -! 8- H / ]5
4 6 !. 8 (/*! . : I4 .R
. 5 JI. % 4 <5G - 84
0 0 + C ! " J9 4 .V
+ 81. F1 & (B ( /& 4 C
. ' 89 351 / ;4 3
. 9K > ,4 , , - : &''. , ,M )
1
. K( > , 3M , -C , CB H J 3H% : &''K ,F4 , )
2
- , # .//. .' H CM HT : &''; , ,
C )
3
. &;& > , I , 1
-٢٦٦ -
"0 L0 551 4 / /' / .5 4 .a
. 9 A 3I5 A / +
-9 1 A9 (* ,! 7 (/ -4 /G .S
. " 89 + H% A9* " 1 /' "
0 "/ " J9! 8 5/ ! " x (/* I4 C &
x I- ( -! ' D' ( ! H% >1B !. <5G . " J
: # +H fC )&);)&)K
6 4' ! =" 3! . 8B ' ' " x &
04 1 & " 4! A 8? . +5 ' "
80
/ " !9& I! ' 8 * H% ! .
A0 80 4 %
U MV ! MNNM 8 MP 8 " 4 $%
. " J9 J%9
0 ! !9B " J%9 C-! <9G %1 " I! 0 ' != " 6 " RP 8 4 ,MP 8 "
0 <09G $%
& ? ! ! <9& JI. 351
0 0! 0!9B " J9 ' +*! - <5G
809 0 0"/! 0!/ 0/ ' J > / 8 " $%
& 4 " 1 C1 U ' 5 " 89' 5 "
0
1 " 9& (M)
% RO & %5 ! 4' G <9G
0' / -)! ! " $%
C 9 %& >1B ( A 4 !
. ]!B < U (4 1 (9
0 09! ") " H% U / ;% 4! & ) 8 !9B "
0 <9G .51 J % / G 4 (
0& -.0- 0! 4! ' 7* ( 4 (.' " J9 !0 0 70 0 0B +04 (9 ' 1. / " C
J%09 C0-! +0I5 0 .051 /9 8 JI. .51 "
(R)
. !9B "
.;> , I , H F # 447 P : &''; , , )
1
4 , C #MH ^ , T 1
2 43 , B C : &''' , + , )
2
.&* > , ,I , JB
-٢٦٧ -
+'0 ? " ! * / !9B " J%9 + &
: " ! 8
!
0- 09 10. "0 J B +4 A* &: 17 C )s .
!0 *0 0& C0-! 30 0 (/ =! H% /G
80 7 & / 1 (9 ' ! * 3! ' 4 .(1)"
+01/ 3B $%- 1 (& ) 6! 3B ;* J9 " ! 74
9)0! 804 7 & >1 ! ( ' 6* ' *! / . +
k!! " 3B
. L* C/ +4: =Y >7 1! )2s
" 9* ( 8
4 I! !: CM L CCM 1 )3s
0 A9*0 H0% K0' .= 4 @. -9 '5*! C . 4 / %K'
H0 0-9 (09 @05' 3!0 -.! A . 4 !. %& "
. C (/ -! E <9G 5 "
0 0K! (! - , !9 / 1 $%- g 7* ( -! 4
& 0 70! 80-5 -0 4 5 -9 / ]. '5*! (R)
. 4 ( <9G 8-' A 4! U @! "
(0" 4 ! J. 3 " 9 , +4 <9G K' ' 0 A0 " c1 3 MNO` 8 Ra 4 A MNNM 8 MP 8 4 3
0& <09& + A.1 +)* & c1 <9& K' H% & '.& 8
. L* C/ '.& C/ A' " . ! I! (/* / <9G $%
& ,! RPPP % 4 ( 8 4' H%
(V)
. 4 ( ' ;G ]G & '.& !9B " J%9
" 9* ( 8
4 ! : MC 1 )4s
& . 4 ' -.- ! A . '
! / 4'
C 34 % OS H%g ! 1 4' I 7 -4!
9G (B <* %VP 1 9G ? 4 ! % MS 9G 4 &
,I, # H 1 C , +H fC 1M : ./// , 6 ,-7 )
1
. ;>
, , C , B C , + [6 # 57 F : &''& ,2C , )
2
. www.syria.conomy.org , – I – ./ > C , ,; > , I , # + [6 : &''; ,2C , )
-٢٦٨ -
3
(%VQR) /' 34 %S +I5 / , 5/ ( +I5! 34 /
4 . !9B (B 81 C ( ! C ) 8- $%-! 8 %S 0 "/ 1 = 5 I' ! (!4! /* ! ! 0 10 A09 ! ' . B +I5 ! 75 ( /
(M)
. / *! (1 7 ' -5 +=
04 ! 3! . MNNP 8 % ( -K' ( 7 1 " (%NQS ) ! ] ;% 351 +I5 7 0-! ' 3 <9G $%
/ !. <5G 7 !9B ]!B
") +9 L K' H% & '.& MNNa 8 ' ! ? (B 1 ! +9 L4 5 9& % `S ! ;9 C 84 , ' 34!
+09 80 A9 @. 5 9& %S C 5 9 . 1 +9 L 551 L & " 69
0- 0 0 ! A9 8? I -K' C c1 ' (0 0!9B " @ RPPP/S/MV i ` 4 / ! "2
. ( + SP 4! ; ) +9 ( C ! F1 6
0B 0 0 0-! 0 (/* : 1 )5s
J9 !9B " A9* / ! ' H- "
: <9G ! ! %1) ! A 0/& 0 1 A9 ' 8
(U1E & 8 ) 7Y 7 & 8-B C " A ( 7 ! 9G * ' -5
. 5 +)* 3051 0 ,! 81. 351 %
' 4 . W! G ! ;4 G . c1 L4 8 L4 t* ! 0 ! 8 7 %1) (
' 9G ]. C #S , 2
"V 4 C C , H 1T : ./// : 2C ,I )
. /> , I
-٢٦٩ -
1
U E U& J / += 9/ A ( +4 U9 +
' (١)
.1 U ! 1 " I! '/ (/
B 4! U 1
. M )6s
0 0/ 0 c1 ; ]G 1 A ' MNNN 8 % 3051 -9 ' 9 . MNNS 8 % ; 0 & ( J
7 (. > ;% B C 89 "
. +9 ( c!
0 / !. <5G !9B " !! "/ ( -/ / ! ' =! 1 <5G !9B " @ 9 / '
B % 4 !9B " 69 I (/*! !. <5G 81
(!40 0! 0' (
) J *! 84 A9* & +45 I 7 . "
: J! CB H I# ););)&)K
$%0-' 04 0 0' 0-' J0? " +*! !9B " !
0 L0 %0
J%09 ( J9 H% 1 A FG * G ) "
0 0 ( 8
B & 64' + . ' (/ $<& !9B "
0 (`M) 8 ;% !9B " L %
7' / 6/ (/! " x
0& ;E " ' 'G B *! !9B " ! 8/& ! 6 & MNNP 8
91 3 (1 - !/ * = 8 71 +9' L
1 4 U* U 9 J! ;% 3 (9B 3 %
U!/ U!9 0 09 0 71 & ;E ;% B 6 J!! A5 +I5 J!! 6I!
(R)
. 91 ' + 0& -!0 + RPPa 8 U<! !9B " U U 4' -* : (NM) 8 (9 6. %
9G W 9&
M &''9).//' Z J! CB 1H I# //./ 2
&''9 &''K &''; &''& &''. &''' .//9 .//'
B
, D # S CB H 1 : &''9, % , y F ) 1
. &.A> ,
, = , . &/* > ,3M 4 C , _C 1 :&''. ,F4 , )
-٢٧٠ -
2
V`b
VMO
RMO
RRS
RPS
R`P
MPP
`M
& 4' 9&
/ 7' !
VP
MM
N,a
N,b
N,O
N,S
O
V
& !9B "%
9G W
UNCTAD , world, In vestment Reports , 1996 -2005 : (0 0/ 09G 0 W0 & +*! !9B " ! (9 "0 J4 + / 8 ( (RPPVQMNNP )+5 (1 (%MP)
"0 04! !9B " <5G - 8?! +*! !9B
. ;" x I! -9 (%! J ;% B . MNNM 8 (MP) 8
: (M) 7 H% 8 RPPS 8 ( %VP ) & ! $%
. 1 +! 6 E J9 +! ; ]G %5 ' LG . +9 (9 ' !9 ! ! A - + 5 / (1 H%/ 1 ) /* 8 (9 @' 1 C & . c1 L4 A9* '
01 0-9 + c1 ,! " J/ <& . - 4! 8 <9G ! " J/ ' + +%' , 8 . 7B 7 & . A9 H " I
D) 8 0( % S,S)5 ? W U !%9 @! U ' ; ;" A & / ' (B (" ' %
74
(09 @0' 8 (/*! " I! 8 c1 " 4
. ' (
( %RS ) c01 " 89 A5 %& " 9 <9 ' ( & 0"/ RPPS 80 0=! 5 ? /* RPPa 8 A 4 RPPS 8
80 k! %& ," / ' " (V,b)
=% I% H6 @ # 1M% - , I C c 2 : &''K , , )
. &''K /&*)&K/ , 1 2
-٢٧١ -
1
0 0' 0 8B $%
U % MS + (RPPSQRPPV) +5 (1 ]
(M)
. 9G W ' %S,S (
: # CB 1H6 1HY )K);)&)K
(= ( *! !9B " <2 3! >
+!0 /*0 FG A ( $%- I $%
+9 <! !
0/ 0. +04 A ' 1 +9 (/* ' U U-& 8- 0 A 7 ' 1 C- *B "/ I (1 !9B "
/ / +!/ 4! A /* U U H
, . (9
0!9B "0 "E. Fe ( ' (/ *B ' (1 I (/* A0' ( / / = !! ; J9 C1 +*!
0 ;09 0 ") +*! !9B " & 9
!09 0/ 0' *! (/*! - F1 A B - ,! 5. ! '
0 (/*0 %0
' !/ / ( ' !9 ") /
0 0 0' 8
/ A4 (4 3I' ( 9 . 0 0! ( ;9 ' c1B ) ") $%
' ' 31 (!
0!9B "0 9 ") (9 7 (* 84 & ( 04 =! +!/ ! ! 8 9 8/ ' +*!
0 / 84 5/ <9G (! @. 6 75 7 (* W- 9 6 ,
.D4 84 ' 81 ! + >1 -9 -9 ") H
L0 0"" 0-9 0 0 0' 84 51 -!? ' / 9 &
0 0' +"0 /*0 A0' C1 ( (4 – – ) *
. 8B - : # + J CB 1H H% )%
* H 9 ! ;9 *! " * ") -
H0 0 / ( ' %
!9 "B 74 8 , 6' 9 F1 A
0 0 !! / %& +' (1 - !/ *
0 60)! E0! / ,! $ 75 ; ( / . 3I' & 9 J4 ( >
, .A ,&''* , # + +H P X , – + + ^C )
. & > , I
-٢٧٢ -
1
0 +0 +.0! .4 %
D) +' 4 (B C ! '
0= !0 9 8 ,
(M)
MNNa 8 9 +9' !/ /* - 0' 3I0' 09 MNNM 80( %MRV,N )0& 0 0! (%ba,N ) . ;9 ! %1 MNNS 8 U<! ! ! *! " * &
+%0 0 0 0 0 ' MNNV 8 ! ' RPPM 8
4!/ - %
RPPM 8 ! ! ! (MNNNQMNNO ) 351 8" MNN`8
0! 0 " C ' 91 1 ; /! ") >1B *
(RPPMQMNNV) +05 ' - * H = ! J! %& 9 4
*0 H ( ;9 ! " % *E %
(MP,PV)9 8 9
(R)
. ' +4 8 FG C/ L5 J!! ! 84 A 8
' C51 ' (" -K' ;9 +*! ? ") !! 0/ 0 0 ( & ! (!4 ' /& !9B A4
. ;9 !9& " % %
U c1 U "/ -/ U +9
$%0
0/ 0 (0 D5! +9 & " H 1 ")0 $%0
J04 (!4 ' *1 551 U 0 @! 91 F& (/*! 9 ! @!
. I- 6/*! W "/!
- (1 ' +!/ + & ;E " H / ' ! " H
/ / /
0 H- + & - ' 4 - (.' 9 !!
. - / U9 (1 * H 4 ; ' 9 $%
/
0 - - 84 ' 8B /* 3! 6& )9 ;% 81 !!
0!9 /9 !. c4 A ,! -' U H /* -'
0& '.& +-! 8 U9 +4 /I* -B H% ,! -/ / 5' A'
(V)
. H% (' +4 ' 8B /* 0 +5 ' ! " % ' ;9 +*! " ") ! %&
0 *0 7! 84 %
@ . 1 7 1 A 3! ' 8?
. E + F &''& D )
1
, , , # CB 1H ^ : &''&, [ ,CS )
2
. .'. > , I www.,Iqtissadiya.com C P $7Y, # H P : &''* ,y J54 ,+5 )
-٢٧٣ -
3
70 0 0& 0 %0
!9& " % / !9B " / /
. 4 & 351 : 1 # J HB)F
0/ 0 0 " ! !9B " ! J F +9 ' +04 0 A0! / / =. & ;E ;% ' ' 1G '
"0 3= %- !9B ( ) J C B +9
. 4 7 (" E 1 7B 1
(01 ]& 3? ( ,! - / $%
(" ' @
0 0-9 / A. (" <9& J %1 & )9 -' '
. - -' C
0& (0 + ;9 J 7 A4 C/ <9& <J 8? 09 *0B ")0 0/ 0!/ (/*! ") 1 A / J & 0 0-9 > +' ' !9B " ! ! . H% U !
0! /*0 J09Y (0/! / /* >1 (! c4 =
: 9
(M)
. J9 "
' ' ( I C ) F1 A 4 * ( / /
0 0' +0*! " 51 ") ].& - 5. @ ' H% /
. > U / ' D ; '
: ( 16 ) 7 1M# )%
0 %0
0 I C ' (9 3! H
& '.&
. 5. @ ' ! 0 ' +%5 +*! !9B " =! : ( 2 =% ) % 16 Q.
0-' 0! 0 +0 (`OSM,a) RPPP C = MNNM 8 MP 8 4 7'
%& 4' + ( O`R,a )0! 4 ; ( 7' /* +0' D50 9 B J c1 L4 !" / ; ( J!
" ! (R) + (bORaa,N ); $9 ( RPPRQMNNS) .U9 5. 4' (% M,V) 0! 4 c1 / ' +*!
. // > , W$ I P ....., + J CB 1H ^ &''&,[ ,CS )
1
. E + F , &''; D )
2
-٢٧٤ -
;0 7'0 0 04 + (ab) ; 35 C 7' 6 /
6/0 ! F1 U9 $%
(MN) ! +*! "
(M,R) U0 0- 5 J ( , +*! " 8 6!! @' (M`) . 4 ! ' I ! ( 3! ' * (!4 -! +K! + * H
: R # 3H [B Q&
,"0 0 > ( %MS )& >1B( %M )+9 -" ! 9 8 -.!
0 / < ]!B 3! 9 7 -" A! 4! J? 8 . (RPPRQRPPP)
(0/ (=0 80 ; / J!! H% /* " +I F1
"0 <0! (! !9B " !! . / 8 " C*/ 9G 0- L.B <4! )! / 3! . 8 (/*! ;" x ' 44 D 8
(0B F1 (.' " c' "! 8-* 4= 8-9 C
. ' 45 0 ' !9B " * 3! H
: h7 C 1 XM );
0 0! 091 01 3 -.! ( & 7 8
(M)
. (% ab,S) 34 9& !9B ! 34 ! / !9B
0 (0 ' +4 G <9G / + ! * $%
. -* ( 91 7 & 69 7 !9B ! 3
: ( 1 # ) 7 1M# – F
0! 0 F01 ' 3! H
;9 ' 9 & '.&
J%09 H% * D5 9 75 (/*! %& @ ? ' -9!
: ' $%
-4 " - 74 !9B (B DE
& ]!B (! 84 * : ( CB H D ) h7 [B ).
+
]! ]! H
/ 8 I 351 ; / H
%& . F1
H0% . $! & 6 %1 A 3! >* " J9B " ( 8 8
U . ! +4 C )! (" F1 ]!B ( ' ! J!!
. " J/!
80 A' ! 9/ (4 75G! * 84 : C 2MC 2M 1 # )&
+G 01 04 0 c1/ 9/ (4 -! 8 (I (!4 . >1 8 9 L1 <!
P $7Y # # CB H C : &''* ,y J54 ,+5 )
. www.Iqtissadiya.com C
-٢٧٥ -
1
* + M,RS !9B " * 75G /
6! (%S) A' (!4 c1 ( 1g -! (%V) k! A' H% & '.&
80 +/% * ' * +! + R & ( >1 8 A
(0 D (% M,SQP,S) ! A'! 84 * ! / 9/ (4 (!4 '
. H% (! '
! 7 ' 34 +I5 & : 7 2M 1 # QV
(0 ]0 0! ( % O,S ) 34 ; +I5 ( / H%! (%MPQ`)
0/ . 0!9B 0! 91 7 (%MRQN ) ! * 34 +I5
50. %& 05/ !/ 91 7 34 %
%MP,S +I5 ( RP,S J4 91 1 ( /' %MP F1 L' ; 4 ! U.'
0 8 %
. %M` k! ! ' 1 (! 4 A5 ( %
. C/ 351 ' 1 7 !9B ! 3 @ -9
04 601 0 A * / ' ! (NR) 8 (9
. ' ") (9 I- -٢٧٦ -
CB H 1 1 # //&/ 2
( &''&).//; ) 5
1 ;9/A,&
1 .9*',9
9/ (4 8 VN
( D MbVa,S
91 1 `N,`
" ]! MMN,M
Q
91 3 bP
Q
' 9 VaR
V`Mb,N
V`Mb,N
.&A* > , I 1C , # CB 1H ^ :[ ,CS : " * 3! / ' ' 9 H
7! @.
0 % RM,N 00! 04 9 +9' /* %
' 3I' 74 U !' ' !9B
%0
% NP,O 91 ' & = ! ( ! . L9
H%! .' ! 7! 7' F1 J 9 (
! %& . ; ' ( ! " - +*! !9B " (4 /
09 – (=*0 * !? ! +5 H / – MNNS 8 ! ; '
" * (/ -& 9 3=! ' ' 9 H
H0 09 80 $9 ! *E %1 / (B 6K' 4 = 9 8 *!
0 9 , ;9 & +!/ !! ;% ' ! " "
. !/ (/*! J9 / ' " x (5 ( !9B ( D A ( J9 6 0=! 0 0 *B + -. " $%
! 0' (10 U9 +!/ U! ( ;% 84 (/* (/* & ( ,! - (
0' 04' 0& 0 ! ' " @ 6' " ;% ! 4 (9 * !9B ( D . !4 9/ % 9G *
: * ' "
. (I& A 8 74 : 2B
60 J! @' 7B! ! ]5 <9& : CH
. i . !9 H! ! 7 & 11 C51
0 0 A ' 7 8 + ; ]G : '
0 ' 1 !9B " J! @' +9 F ' c1 L4
0 0 0 1 6/ ( 3! . +9 J
-٢٧٧ -
! ! 4 7 +& . 90/ <04 ' -9 6 D C"/ F! 8 %& ]5 %
&
-9 $%
B f! ' ; J ! + C51 : ! H% 9 $%
- c5 +5 . 9/ *! 4 . 9G +4 A 91 C51 ) (1 !9B A4 A . ( I ? 5 ( 0B %01E J0 ]05! L*0 8 %/ 1 %1E J9
$%
+5 J9 (! ]G ' E! %/ ? ' 80 A * 1! ! D ; ]5! -I * J9
. ' ' :א
א2א
א
א2+;א−٤−٢−٤
0 0 0 0 9 ' +9 / U=! U") 91 "E
(/ +.! 4 ( +9 ' /* -5 (4 -
. - & +45 ( +9 %5 <9& A 351 <9&
>0& 0' ( +9 / +*! +9 ! H* 7B 70 0' 0!9B " *! !9B " (* 91 ( ;0 0 g (5 J 4! 3 @. DE 8/ -' (4 " 1 -' I* % ( ' 1
0-' " %& " I L5! ( H + (B
H0
0. 09& ' 34 81 +. * 4 ( 7)! 4
- !9B " J%9 - ' - + ' "E >1 (
(M)
. +9 > 7B & %5 : 7 IB J! $5C )%
0 c' +5 + (4 & 7B & %5 4 ;E QM
. - -9 I 74 8" . &K > ,_C , B , 6 : &''; ,"% , = )
-٢٧٨ -
1
W0! ! A9 . 9 A. ( *- A. = J QR
0 0 W0! +5 A ;4 4 ; +
. 91 <! C51 H! 4 7/ E -4
70B 0& - %5 A 4 A' ( - ( J/ & QV
. 8 (1 - ( J/ U"/ 75 91
: 7 6 1!) F
0- 0 0 ( + C. & +9 J? ;E QM
0 05/ + & ;E ;9 * U 35 9 '
. -9 ' -! A ! +5 I' 45' ;E 6 ;% 91 89! ' ;9 ") QR
%
;E ;9 ' 9 ' ' 9 & 351
. " 8" H- 351 & $!
09 0 0& 351 89 ' ! ("QV
. 91 +9 ! (/ JI. /9 8 351
(0 0'/ ? / 91 3 & ! )9 U!?
+09' 0 0 +9' ! ; "4! " "
' 9 ( 3 ' 91 3 81 : +% 91 +9
. 8I4 91 +I5 ' <9G H%/ ;9
0 <9 - ( I ( "" ) !/B J Qa
)0' I5 H ," ;9 * .5 4 A' & -9
+I5 ! . $%- 9 </* 7 .5 4 & <9& ? 4 U .1 "/B 4 ' +9 <9& - ( 8 ! 8 > +9 <9& 9 I 9 I5 !/
U"/ I H 89 . %VP - ( (SSPQRSP)
. <! C51 1 89
$%0- X905 F1 J 1 !9B " - @5 ( QS
04 "0 ;9 * 8 +. "g H% W (B
0 9 +95 / $%
' (1 +.! 3! . >1 3! & H%
A.01 0* +<5/! * ' -9 9 ;9 * H* Qb
. H! G +<5/ C. , B ' +* ! C*e
-٢٧٩ -
: 7 7 ).)K)&)K
(0 <0 3 ' =! ( A' 91 34 ( - &
0 809 A0' ' 8
;% B /- A ( 1 9& A*
7 4 ( A' 9 4 ( $9 (
(M)
. ( 1 E*! (1 4
H% / - 75 5 ' I5 A B : 7 7 C
0 !! <' 9 $9 ' -& ! +" L 7
C0-! 60 351 351 B 6 + ! . (R)
: HT - 81. + ;E ;% B . +04 C.& & ;E H% K' W & 1 ( A5 )%
(V)
. ! 8
U %
0! $%
%1) 8 %K' 7 ' A c4 ;E ! 8
& )F
. I%= A < 7 - ;E H% K' !
+<05/ 0 0 7 +<5/ "E 81. , 351 )h
. I* +4 0 J09 0' < +!/ !4 ( (/* /* 8 1 ) &
0 4 (
) +& /& ; J9 ' 34 (B '
. +9 C A 8< /
@!0 U1 ( D! ; – ; ) (" L. )* H% U
<*0e 0 H0! 4 7 & '.& ( ' " D' "E
04 0-K' U*! -1 / %& ! <.)/ 9 (/ ' 1 % 0 (04 B 8 ! L!& ! .5 + U*
. ]5 & 0 09 L0.B < ( + 4 7 (1 J 30! (0 ! * ; / 9 ; / L.B
. ; ]5 1 ,1
- , # C , # P : &''; , ,
C )
1
. .;* > ,I
;';) ;'. > , C , F @ , : ./A/ ,# % ,J54 )
2
..&).. > , 3M ,
2M , C 2 # " 7- : .//* ,+ , )
3
-٢٨٠ -
+04 A*0 (0 0!9B 34 !/ (/*! +' ' 4
. ; 91 8 1 + > ;% B !9B " A9* C-! B
0-9 91 8 , /* ( >& !
0I' 0 0 ' 4 A %
/ <* 9G ? A* ( 0 809 ! (NV) 8 (9. 8 !9B A4 ' 8 9 91 : ' 5 6I! 91
( &''K)./A') 5 17 P 1 UC J! 7 ! C / /; / 2
7 C
7
C
J! 7
J! 7
% 1
%1
MM
VOR
MPb
R`
V,SaN
MNOP
Mb
VOR
bbP
N`
MP,OMN
MNOS
RV
VOS
bOa
MM`
Mb,Ob`
MNNP
b
VOV
VOS
MRN
MO,NaR
MNNM
N
RO`
VOP
Maa
MN,PM`
MNNR
MV,M
M`a
bVM
Maa
MN,PM`
MNNV
MV,M
RRN
bMa
MV,S
RP,SSO
MNNa
V,`
MSS
S`S
MVS
RM,VMO
MNNS
V
MRa
VRM
MRS
RM,aRP
MNNb
`,`
MRP
SMS
MRS
RP,N
MNN`
a,a
MMN
``S
MVN,b
RR,a
MNNO
a,a
MMN
bbM
MVa,b
RR,b
MNNN
Mb,V
MMN
VPb,b
MVP,N
RR
RPPP
MS,b
MRP
SMO
MMO,`
RR,b
RPPM
Mb,M
MRS
VOP,M
MPV,N
RS,O
RPPR
M`,N
MVR
aVS,O
MM`,N
RV,N
RPPV
RM,O
MVO
aS`,N
MRS,`
Ra,O
RPPa
J! C
% UC
7
B
The Ecomomist Inetlligence Unite . (&''9 – ./A& ) $ Z + M : 57 %, 2002 . country repoets , world bunk
: ( NV) 8 (9 80 0 ( Mb,ObR )0& (V,Sa ) 91 89 L5 QM
: & > %
RPPM 8 (RR,b) MNNP
0 0 ;9 ' 9 6-* ;% !/ J0 0! 9G W ' 9 U (MNNNQMNOP )+5
-٢٨١ -
0 !/ (/*! 8 H% ( % 351 . +95 91
0' 0
9 /
1 , & I ? I& L!& 1 A 3 9& / J ' + ' " 0 + ' " / . ' 9 W 91 3 & $! > ;% 9 ! 9 ' 9 8" (١)
. 8/ 8" 0 0' " >1B E H! 4 7 . 8 0 c04 0& > ;% B H! 7 A 8 5 A 8 -/
0 +0 !/ & 351 ' * "/ ' ( C
(٢).
91 H! <5G 0 (*0 <09& . ; ]G %5 A. & 4 ' B $%
A09 J0 ; * ' c1 L4 + 9 (/*! 91 +9
. ' RPPM 80( % MMO,` )0& MNNR 8 (% Maa ) 9G W & ! A9 QR
80( MO,`) k0! 0 4 W 91 89 MPP 0 ! $%
9
RPPM 80 (% SMO )0& MNOP 8(% MPb ) 5 & ! / RPPM
(% VR,` )0 0' !0 $%0
0=! U "' ! ( & U 5 ! 304 0 ;0 0! 4 > / *E %
' (%MMN,N)
. 91
0 & * ! $%
!! U 1 "/B & 1 ! & QV
0-' 0! 901 6 1 '/ ! -/- 1 A <0' 0 0 0! + ;.(V) >1 -9 U -9 <J D
. ! $%
5 / 351 6 1 !
0!! +!/ ! (% RV) & %& MNNP 8 ' 5 / ! $%
U 4"0 U! !( %RP ) & ! 6 9 ;% ! ! D4
0& (0 0 0 ' @. (/*! 9 ! $%
& 1! C5 !
, J M 7 7 3% 6! P C J 3HG 7 : .//* , , )
1
. *9> , I , , . .99 > , .//( , 2 , + M ) )
2
. &K > 3M , 2M , 3HG 7 XM , C : .//* ,+ , )
3
-٢٨٢ -
<! C51 ' !/ (/*! 8
5 89 ' & A!! RPPM 8 (%MS,b)
0 (" : -I A -9 (1 %
91 (M)
. MNNa 80 '/0 (0 3! A MNNM 8 H! A /* - D & <G * H* U 4! ' 5 A 0 0 0 !. & (9 %
' 4 -9- & '.G! . 91
c01 80 6 H% . 9G A* ( --9 A + 34 & <9 F1
A0' 80 (/*! 4 9& A' " A* ( 91 34
0 0 0 /0 91 +9 L ' (' (/*! 8
H% K' B 9G A* (" A* H I 7 34 $%
! I5 B
J0 0 +*0 ( -9& c1 A* 3!
0 91 L. , ( C "" 9 . A4 )(R) C
. - (/ !! -.! 9 *E 3! ' U 0 *0 B H% L ' (
& 5 91 34 89 A9*0 J ( (& ) -9 91 34 ! 0 30 +0 + 9 / 0 0 4 + (9 B 3 J ' !4 9 $%
. J !- L5 = . 91 0 0 6/-0 L5 @. & 91 1 ! L5 /
0 $0 - ( ' ! ! 4' I'
(0 0-& )09 4' $%
5 8 !4 1 C4 / H%! 1 A
DE J%09 -0 40 704 (9 !9B (!4 - C 0 C051 ; /- ]G W! 7! & )9 ; ! 4 .(B
. 91 L5 +)
0 7 (/* !9B 1 91 & : (4 / 8 (/*!
0B 0 30 / & %
351 / /
1 (/* W % MPP %OP & ( ' W0 0 ( %OQa ) (% MSQMP) & ' 4! 91 1 0& 0 !0 -0 9 ( ! D4' . 7 (/* . 1! '5 ! 4" U %RP J M 7 7 3% 6 P C J 3HGz 7 : .//* , , )
1
. .AA > W$ I P .. . ./; > &''& , 2 , + M )
-٢٨٣ -
2
!0 $%
-' 9 + U ! H
!! ! $%
8/ + >1 ( K' A!!
U 0! 0 0' - 1 ' J /*! 69 ? ( 3! ' %SP 0
H0
091 - 35 +& & . H% A %RP ( ! $%
=! >1
+0 6 ' 8 91 6 1 ! + ") /
& '.& 7B ' ' - $%
! A . ! ' !9B A4 9 > B
-٢٨٤ -
ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ
-٢٨٥ -
ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ
: UDC J! CH 267 C M
05 <" 8 %& +5 9 ; ;9 QM
01 & A9 = + 8 W H% /
(4 +5 (& 9 ! 9 - /-
0 A0 0 0 351 ; 69 9 J '
0 04 0 /9 !. 8 -! "
c5! (-9! 7 1 & '.& (9B ( c1 ( J? C
0' 0" ! C. 9 9 @5 -9 (*' 0' +0! 7 91 <9& 4 7B ' 8
0! A0 70' ! 4 5 B & A 4' J!! A ' C.
. = ! * ! 7 4' 91 7B
(01 91 +9 ( ' 1 IG *E 9 - QR
J09 0' 0 0/ $0 J9 ' /! 91 +9 %& @.
0 A0 >0 (0!4 J9 ' ( 91 ) A ! 0 0= "E ! 1 H% (9 . " /- . A $%
3 J! 4
0! 05 = !9 +/E FG (/
! ! "2 <9
'0.G! ; * ' 1 ;% L4/ 5 L ! 91 L4 /E
1 A L $' ! ; (/*! ! ' ; * 8? H% &
0 0& ! W ") & 89 A "B 7 0' * $%
A9' ;9 (! * !4 7 C! ! , !/
. 9G * (1 D (1 B $ D @ ?
0/ 0!' 0" +' (1 9 ' / 9 91 (! ' & QV
9 ( 4 C @! 8 ( U<9 ' L
+0 (2556) + (1502 ) 1980 8 9 91 (! '
' 8 ; ! 4 ' L 1988 8 9 %
D/ / B 9! ! ! L4 %
' 74 35
L4 "/ 5 H- 9 !/ ; L C1
-٢٨٦ -
09& 0& 0 0 ! 9 H% 5 (1 L5 / ! +")
80 ( %2.3) 4! .51 +' ' -! A 4 " +' (1 . 8 D5 ( % 15.7) ! A (١) 1980
0 <"0! 0 +05 (01 0 9 - 91 (! & Qa
09 +5 $! / ;% ;9 ' 3I' -' 74 , (MNNP – MNON)
%& .04 70 < ' 5 ( & + 0 0' " / 4 . + ( ` Q a) 3I5 =!
(MP ) 80 " (! +!/ t* 8 9* 91 +9 <9&
MNNP 80 (% V`,P) 9& & ! L5 ' 0 ! 351 (!4 ! $%
L5 & MNNa 8 (%SP,R) &
0 0 0 609& ' ; ( & 9&
RPPP 0 0' -9 & % aP (/*! F1 C A 9
0 ; / & (/*! & ( % V`,M % V`,O) & RPPM
. ! $%
351 & 0! 80
0 (0& / 69 > QS
0"B 0& > ' " + -4' + & (I0! 0 / / 9 + ' 8
;% ' !
70B ' ' + C. 5 % 5/ 6' ! / 8 - & * 4 /. 91
0' 0 0 H% 9 9 I ]5 ! !/ !
0& 04 505 = 5/ ! (! 84 B /
0 0 ! .51 4' '. 4 % <*& ' @9 8 C 9
0 RPPS 8 (% Ra,V )& MNNP 8 (% V`,M ) 9& & A
80 A 9 ! (/*! H% D/ 91 +9 I L /& (
.91
0 (0 0& 0 ' = !/B "B Qb
0 0' "E ( ' 0 0 ' !/B B <& J ;% B . ") "/ (4 69& ' + 74 $ !/ L4 <& ! 04 % 0 6 ' & B . '.
. 7 1!,./// % # , E + F-
-٢٨٧ -
1
0 0! 1 ' ! ' 91 +9 Q`
RPPS 80 % Ra,V & MNNP 8 % VS,M A ! .51 , !
80 % `,S 0& MNNP 80 % Ma,R 351 C A -9 /
% `P,V 0& MNNP 8 % SP,S L5 & B ! -9 ! RPPa
% `S & MNNP 8 % aS L5 81 5 ! -9 , RPPS 8 %bP,` RPPa 8
09 0 --9 ! D/ %
RPPV 8 % bR,V & RPPR 8
80 !B 7 $9! 69 -5/ L5 -9 > 351
. ' A +
! B -9 , ' 91 +9 L < ' ! QO
RPPV 80 % S,N 0& MNNR 8 % a,S L5 9G W ' /9 JI.
@ /9 5 351 / ; A 3 %
80! %01B ! C- 6 J= 8I4 /9 5 (/
H% ( <5G
%
; * A9*! (" ; C- D MNNa 8 % 4 /9 5
0/ 9 & - & J /9 !. (9 @0 /9 5 (/
D/ /- A 1 ' /9 5 L5 . +9 (5 I 2 + +9 K' H% /- 80 04' 09 - A9! / 8 9G * C-!
(9 ' - c /9 8 J (! " .4 RPPS 8 / aNa / 8 8 &
' 1 !! " 6 RPPM 8 / RbS / 8 8! + 4 /9 5
0 (01K! 0 H09 0 C/ " 8 c % M & I%= D0E 3051 %
.' " /9 8 5 (9 . 8 %
' - c
+09 0 ! "g - / /9 5 ' +9 * & C
. 91
69 D/ , RPPa 8 MNNN 8 % ' + 7 -* QN
. '=9 A +" + B 7B A ( +9 ( (1 ' " ! 9 69 ( - & %
8? 6 &
;" ( 1 (/*! 7 ! / H9 – – (4 / + I -9
<*0K! E ] / H% 4 %1 X! ;% B G -9 . +*! < DI! ! " I
7 & +9 A U )* 5 + 7 ' A 4' (/*
0 0 ( ' " +9 A9* ! ! ! ! +
-٢٨٨ -
0
A9 ; ]5 - %' !! + 7 ] . 9 & 6t! (4 A
04 ' ") ' J ' A5 / & QMP
/0 5 % ( 9 & ( ; !
/0 ( > 4' RPPa 8 (%R,aS) & MNNP 8 (% R,`S) 6.51 8? D0/ ;% B / 9 + 9 =. + & A5
" !/ ") H- 89 + / 1 J ( H- +!
901 + ' 8
;% B 4 (1 ' + $%- / 9G
0 H-0 !0 A9 A /- A / 9 1 ! 8 9
04 ) 09G ? 4 ' > C 8 (B $%
9 & " 1 =
. 1 " & 4 9 8 1 ( !. 1 A*
A0. ( '/ 8
-! ! .4 / ) <& ! H%
0 ' + ! < & ( (- D4 ! + C
% / !
0 4 F& + -1 / 74 !4 3I5 ' + /
/0 *0 >0 A' ! ; + ' - 0-9 0 ;*0! "/ 1 8 / / + Y ( c' )
0 0= 0 >01 -9 -/ 51 -/*)! '= = . 8 ; / 71 & ' 4 9
! / ) ; 69 8
& QMM
A ; ( ... 7 4 > C. ! 0.5 ' 84 A H%/ Fe ' - J ! + +9 5 7!
01 9 L4 (
) 6! !B /*
9 H% (/ . +" 9 - 4 9 & '.G! -4 -9&
. -4! ' ! ; ]G W! 7 ' -! J9 =.0 09 -.5 -9 * ; (
) +& & "%&
4 (
E $ 7B ' ' 4 4 ' 0 0& 0 8. !9& >1 ! "g H-'. 9 $%- ! "2 -9 C0 (0 0' ! ! & 8. 4' %1 +9
3051 0! 69& ' !/ L4 6 ; 351 -5/ L5 7B ' ' A + 8 6
0 +9 & 8. /& ;% FG ! -9
0 ]05! 7 ' 3!B ! ( I ! +1B ! ( & .
-٢٨٩ -
(%aP) 0
D/ ! ' ! ' (% MS ! ) +*! !9B " ;9 (!
0!9B "0 & (MP) 8 " & 8? 0! "0 J%9 ' 6= 5 J4 ' / 5. ( *!
0 A ( RPPV QMNNN +5 (1 ( ' (9 " 1 ) % R 5.
. B ' (RPPSQ RPPa) MaVM 04 RPPS / N /RR i0 RMVR 04 0! (! C 8 & QMR
+0 !. ' -1 & +9 RPPR /MM / RS i
;09 C0 0
0' 84 8 . 44 ( ' 8
! 04 04' = C-! /9 ! (!! 84 ;
MaVM 04 ; ;9 C = 4' H% 7 ' !. 69 8 /%
@0' 70 8- ! 8 ;% RPPS /MM / Mb i bPMO 4 !
0! 4 3! <4 (9E A' c! ( 8! c!! A4 ) ' 9 C !9& /. !9B + C +* J 7! ? J . -9 4 / ' + !9B
+0 C0 ( 9 B " ( 5 1 %K' !9B A4
. B !/ 7 (/*! / -٢٩٠ -
ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ
:2 ] / -& WI "! (1 B 0 - L - (1 89 + ( )M
: J! C A + F& /
0' A0 + ;% !' : (1 4 8 •
L0 ;%0 !! " H% ' 61 4 8 !/ 9 3 6
0! %& = 8 (1 %
!" / (1 4 - (/
09 09 )*0 %0
' . ( (9B ' (1 ' 9 H
/ . + A L C (1 4
<0* (0 !9B 4 '/ ' J9 & : ; ( <! •
0 0 0' 69 ' I / %K' 9 A
04 0 = (1 K' "B ' ".51 5. ! 69 9 J9
. ; ( 351 6 J C !9B
0 0 +1 "/ + 7 : A 7 (9 7. •
: 2 J!Y H% +
. J ( <! ( Q
. +4 C. QJ
. =. 3 (QF
0!! & )0 4 ' ! ' + +!/ + & / Q R
(! 9/ ' (1 FG (/
(9 FG 9
!0 +0 0- + ' ,! 9! 9/ /
!! c1 8 FG A (/ ' ' 4 + +
9 D! / '
. " – FG – " ":," ' ]9 ( +.
( C <*& - <5G / !/ 6 69* ; ( 8
( 69 ;% !9B A4 B -' + ' . ; ( ! *
-٢٩١ -
$%0-' 04 0 0' -' J? " +*! !9B " ! QV
L %
J%9 ( J9 H% 1 A FG A* G ) "
0 & 64' + . ' (/ 6I& / (I (/! !9B "
: ! H% L %
7' / 6/ (/! " x ( 8
B (!
+%' 1 - ' " A + 9 / " I
<*& •
04' 0 (0 80 0 c04 " 1 84! 5/ +
. c1
A* 4 ;% " - @ C-! " 8/ 3! ( •
"0 J0 A* 6/! -9& c1 A* I 7 '
. ;B +!/
0 (01 0 F1 ! ;9 (! 89 + ' + 7 (5 •
. -' ;" x - ,
0' 0 (01 A 8 J + 5 / c & Qa
0 %01 (1 +9 !B /* I" 9 5
: H0% != 1 !9B ! " J%9 : JB •
: (1 . 4 S 0 (1 84 " <5& @ QM
70' 0 0! ) (- " G <9G ! QR
. /0* 701 09/ 0! ) 4 9! L* 7& QV
. /* A 4 9& 9
: (1 8 : CH •
+ C0*& 0 C0? /*0! -. ( 7 <*& QM
.
. - 91 7 /* <*& 5 QR
. I
<*& QV
: ! I4 t* ' +4 A' E : HH •
. 7 <*& QM
-٢٩٢ -
01 0. 0-9& 0I4 9 8 FG C/ 351 QR
. ! 0!9B A04 A ,! / 9 7 /* <*& QV
. . . ! % 9 1 8 : •
. 8 L4 ]& : 7 •
: (1 5 ? ' + 74 / QS
+ ' C
B 74 ! & 8 ; ' + 74 Q
!0 %0
/ (9 A ! J9 H% (= 9G
0 ( ' -" ' 9 +4! H% 74 / 9G (/- '!
: -
1 (I 9 J9' . 91 7B c4 •
. 7 (9 ' +!1 c4 •
. * FG C/ L5 •
. ( E J? •
. 9 J? •
. 9G 4 1 ,!! 8
•
. ' >1B ( J9 +5 1
0 0 <9G ! 4 7I 91 +9 Q
0' 0 4 /9 ' 7' 91 +9 8/ 9 ? (/
. .5 JI. 8 & 351
" 9/ (1& 4' - D ! A (/ W! %5 Q
A09 0' 0 0! 9G (= ( + 9& > 0 C51 FG ' (.' / 74 . 81 0* +09 J0 (* c1 8 4 8- ' Q
0 0 C-! H% 1 ' J/ (1 9 84 '
. 91 7B ' ' -/ -٢٩٣ -
H0% B W L. <& + ( ! Q
: - + 7 !
. 3 / !/)! /* W I
,&
•
%0 501 7! 4 <9G %1 ! (5
•
9& 4 7B & F1 ' & I
. +9 7
F0G (I0 4 (B J9 ' 8- 6 !9B ! " A9*
•
. ' - " +G
A0 "! I A !9B ! ( A 9 •
0 & 8. L. ! !B /* 5 A !B . ! ( A >!/ + +9 7 5 4 (/ +9
( A / ( J ,! / 4 74 & / C- J9 Qb
0-4! 0/ W! A / 8 ! + A ; 0 ) (9 -1 +<5/ + " J -& $%
(
)
. -9 J - !
-٢٩٤ -
ﺍﳋﺎﲤﺔ
0 0 (! J' !9B " J%9 & ;E ' ; x &
09& 5 (9 ;. ( D . (B DE +9
;0 ]5 J9 (1 / / WI $%
& ( / . FG ( 9&
0! $%0
05/ H%0! ! 9 5/ 8? J 91 8 A (/'
L04 0 04 0 9 ' 4 ) (" '- (1 351
; x " LG /!* A. '
0/ C*G A c1 L4 (5 -9& + 8 J & '.G!
D A9* ' (1 H% 9 %& --9 L4 %
' 0 0
(I0 ) 9/ & 6! J9 H% & '.G! - &
. g ' F1 -!%9
-0 J9 +5 D! I g 7* J9 H/ +1 / 4!
0B H0 ! 6!* 3! H
B <1 ( $%
6' ' 8 ! !
0 0! w05 < / J!B ' C ! -!!
H0! ;0 0 (1 ! ' ( (/ %1) F & c1* . C "4 "/ +! ; 7 -٢٩٥ -
Gאא
: F
0! +/%0 7'g >!/ ! + +9 4: RPPa !* 1' ! .M
. 7* *
09 0 ' : RPPa ! ; .R
. /G
/ ! -9 ' ( : RPPa ! ; .V
. D* 9 +9
*0 0. 0: RPPV . J 9 * / 8: MNNM 4*B .a
. 9 ! J/ / J 9
0. 0. 04 A0! (01 91 +9 : RPPM 9 .S
.7* *
0G 9 <. ' /& ! ! +9 :RPPR .b
.SRc +
4 4 1 -
B ! *
; 4 C* ; :MNN` ^ .`
. 7* J= 7*
0' J*0 7 +9 ! 8
! ; ]G: RPPV ^ .O
. 7* . +
!4 6'g !B /* L* - : MNN` .1 .N
. 7* 9 * 7* ! 9 ! + . B A * 7 E : RPPa @' C1 .MP
. J 9 * : MNOb ; .MM
. ! ! ! 85 91 +9 : MNOa J
! * .MR
! -9 (/
: MNN` ; . .MV
. D* 9 +9 / " MNNV – MNSV " +5 (1
'4" > 2 ( !
2 : RPPP ; / .Ma
. 7* B ! *
-٢٩٦ -
80 0' /0* ,!B / ' ; ]G :RPPP (! / .MS
.7* !
0/9 0-") ! ! D : MNNO H .Mb
. ! 7'2 A ! ' ! (!4 J/ . 7* 9 * /* : MNNa 7' .M`
0 0' 01 01 ' !. A* : MNNO ' .MO
. 7* (9 . / 9 '= ( 7 : MNNa 5 4* .MN
. 7* /5 "9% !B /* : RPPV 8 .RP
. 7* /5 - (9 ( / : RPPP 8 .RM
. 9 + . : RPPM 4 .RR
+0 80B 7 / 7* 9 / : MNN` . .RV
. UNFPA
*0 09 0 H0! 0 0 : RPPM J0 0! 0 ! .Ra
. +
4 !
2 9 ( !
2 : RPPP J ! ! .RS
. 7* B ! * '4" >
. +
4 +9 +9 : MNNN ; 8 ! .Rb
0- 0--5 0 0 : MNNb 0 0 " . ! 9 .R`
. /G 9 J!* E -
+09 0 !B A /* +9 "g : RPPV ;/ .RO
. 7* ! .- . ! 9 c5 = : RPPP ! ;5 .RN
. * 9 * 4! < : RPPS ^/ 8
! .VP
' 9 J/ : J/ ' ! -9 ' / cI1: MNNR 8
! .VM
. 7* * ! ! -9 / !
0 09 0- 0/& ! ( ! +9 :MNNO .VR
. +
4 <G -٢٩٧ -
. 7* 9 * D ' ; /5 : RPPa ; .VV
0! 0 (!4 +9 9 8 -1 = : MNNS 8
!& ; .Va
. ! ! + /
0! 0- F01 0' (!4 : MNNO !? .VS
./
0B 7*0 ' /! 4 ! 69 : MNOS D' D' .Vb
. =! g != 9
8*- >!/ ! + +9 4 (/ 7! 74 : RPPa 8/ ! ]4 .V`
. 7* * !
0 (09 0' / ( 1 : RPPM ;*4 .VO
. ! * ! E . 7* ! ! / <G : MNOb / .VN
%0' 0' 0I9G (/* G ! :RPPS 4 ! * .aP
.! ( 9 ! ( ! +9 / "
. ! 9 4 ' 4 : MNOS 8 ! H! .aM
0I! 0' 0*! 0? 0*! !9B " : RPPS + J .aR
. D* 9 +9 / ! >!/ ! + +9 4 5 ' ( : RPPa + .aV
. 7* /5
.+
4 ! !/ ' /* ! 7 : MNNN ;% .aa
: 16 1@ 1C
.RPPV 8 aP 8! 7 + 7 8 ' 9 : RPPV W-! J .aS
A0 +0 0& 804 " 91 +9 4 :RPPS - ! !* 1' ! .ab
.7* ,! > !B .5 1 I
;
8 9 <"" + 91 +9 ' <g : MNNP J ]* .a`
. 7*
80 09 0 <0"" +0 0 ' + 7 : MNNS 6 ! .aO
. 7* -٢٩٨ -
<0"" +0 0!B /*0 0/ 91 +9 : RPPS ? ^! .aN
. 7* 8 9 +* " 0 0 <0"" + +9 : RPPV D J! .SP
. 7* 8 9 +*
<0"" +0 0 0!B /* ! : RPPR D J! .SM
. 7* 8 9 +* 1 0! 0/B ;! (4 4 %5 ' " : MNNV 4 ! .SR
. ! 8 ;! (4
0'1 0 +0 0' H* ! ( 81 : MNNO C .SV
80 0 (M) 0 RP 09 ,! * 9 9 !9
.
( 7 " * E 7 9 ( : RPPa .Sa
. ! !
0 A0 0 ( ' 91 +9 :MNNO ! 5 .SS
. +
4 9 +9 / !! 4!
<0"" +0 0'=9 - (/
: MNNP ^ .Sb
.7* 8 9 0G 0 0 = ( ' (!4 :RPPP ^ .S`
.+
4 ,! ! 9 0 <0"" +0 0 0' +I5 C : MNNS 8/ .SO
. 7* 8 9 9
0' ;04 0 ]G & ' +I5 351 ' > : RPPS 8/ .SN
. R R` 9 ,! * 9 9 . 7* + 8B 4 : RPPS 8
!& ; .bP
+0 91 +9 ' ]* J / <g J4 : MNNP 8 ;1 .bM
. 7* 8 9 <""
<0"" + /G A !! 91 +9 ! : MNNb 8 ;1 .bR
. 7* 8 9 -٢٩٩ -
0-9 0' 0'= = ! ! : MNNO 8 ;1 .bV
7 A ! / / -4 ( * & 4 !
. 7* ( 7 8 / ( + 8B
+0 0 0! -9 ' ; / : RPPR 8 ;1 .ba
. 7* 8 9 +* 1 <""
0' " + ;" x / 4 : MNNN .1 .bS
. 7* A0 +& + C 351 / :RPPP .1 .bb
. +
4 9 (1
(09 0 0E <! ( + +9 = :MNNN (9 7 .b`
. 7* H! A ! + ?
+09 0 5 ( ' -'g ! 9 A : MNNa (9 7 .bO
. / ! - * . 7* " J/ ' 1 A* : RPPV ! .bN
+09 0 + +9 : RPPP 5 .`P
. +
4 91
0' 0
" ! -9 ' : MNNV ! .`M
.7* 6/5 .1 4 + ' 4 +. . 7 <0"" +0 ;0 0 0 091 +9 " : RPPV .`R
. 7* 8 9 ( +*0 "" <"" + ; :RPPP .`V
.7* 8 9 ' 9 0 8 9 <"" + ' A :RPPV 7 .`a
.7*
0 70'g ;4
A. ' : MNOb 7' .`S
. 7* 8 9 <"" + / ;0 E ( 91 ! - +9 : RPPV C* D* .`b
. H/ // +9 D1
-٣٠٠ -
;0 0 >!/ ! + +9 4 5 WI : RPPa * .``
. /B != 9 A + -4 + ' 4 +.
/*0 05 09 ' ; ;! (4 L 7'g: RPPS 4 ! ! .`O
! ; !B (B / - + ' 4 +. –!B
.* 9 A
0G 4 3! ' *! : RPPM . .`N
.7*
8B ! E 84 ,! ' +B 8 !1 : RPPR . .OP
. ' (5 +
70 0 04 & 4 + 7 : RPPR ' .OM
. 7* +
<"" + 91 +9 ' c1 L4 : MNNS 5 8/ ! .OR
. 7* 8 9 +09 0 (0/
0! 0! 0"# : MNNO F' D ( ! .OV
. +
4 9 A! 9 9 ,! 9 91
+0 091 01 ' ! A L4 (
) : MNNN 1 ! .Oa
. 7* 8 9 <""
(09 0' ! D4 5 I
: RPPV 7 ! 9 .OS
09 9 A ' ;9 (! D4 5 <
. H + 8B g !=
<0"" + ' -'g " ' 91 +9 : MNNO ; .Ob
. 8 9 7* +* 9 +9 G +9 5 : RPPV 8 (= .O`
. H – + 8B g != 9
. +
4 !1B ! ;! (4 X' E* ' /' : MNNO -' .OO
0 0!9 9G - , ! : MNNa 4 .ON
. 7* +9 '? !B & W ( + 0 0"2 0 ;0 0 0/9 : MNNS ? L .NP
. 7* 8 9 " <"" + 9
-٣٠١ -
8 9 <"" + ' 7 g 4 / : MNNb / .NM
. 7* 0 <0"" +0 7 g (1 ! c1 L4 : MNNb 4 ! ( .NR
. 7* 8 9 0- 01 ' ;! (4 91 +9: MNNR ! c1 .NV
. 1
<0"" +0 ; * (5 (9 1 7 89 A : MNNN (! 7 .Na
. 7* 8 9 '? ( C * 9G + / 2 : MNNN (! 7 .NS
. 7*
0! (0 0 +9 5 9 "2 : RPPP (
.Nb
. / ! - *
;0/ J/ +B ! L* ! -9 ' +B @ .N`
. ! ( 9 <e
- 1 4 + ' 1 .NO
. 7* 1 I
+
J0/ RPPM – MNNP 80 / MS / 80 "0 8/)! A* A! 4 .NN
. 7* "
. 7* <e ;/ J/ : MNNS ' 91 +9 L .MPP
30 :RPPa 0! ! +9 (5 ' " >!/ ! + +9 4 .MPM
. New York + 8B /B 4 ( ' G (/ ;
. 7* ' ; ;" A 3 G ; ; > .MPR
.RPPb 8 + 4 .MPV
: 2D
A ' % )' 91 +9 " : MNNS ,? .MPa
. 1 - c1 8! ( " 7'g /*
0! 0 0-9 0! 091 +09 (/* " : RPPR 8"
59 .MPS
. D* 9 +9 / 9 " ! -9
-٣٠٢ -
/*0 0& 0' 0!B ! ; (!4 :RPPb 8"
59 .MPb
! ( 3! J9 & +*G A - +5 8 /& Q!B
.+
4 D* 9 +9 / $/
0 " ; ' ; / / J " : RPPS >
J9 .MP`
. 7* 9 / 9
0 0! 0-9 ' I%= ) / : MNNa ! & .MPO
. J 9 / 8 / 9 0
! 0
0& + " : MNN` 9 .MPN
. 7* 9 / 9 " / 9 " ' !9B " >9 " : RPPR ] 8? .MMP
. 7* 9
/ 9 " ' W (= " : MNN` J 4 .MMM
. 7* 9 0/ $0/ " (" " ( ' 91 " : MNNb +- .MMR
. 7* 9 : 1
. 7* <e ;/ J/ (RPPbQ MNOP) +/% 8Y IG 9 .MMV
. +1 91 +9 <& .MMa
. ! ( 9 ! ( IG 9 .MMS
. ! 4 7 51 B ; 4 .MMb
. (RPPaQMNNaQMNOMQMN`P) 8Y / .MM`
. (RPPPQMNOM ) ' 1 +9- @ WI .MMO
: CB P
119. Hoed man , Bernard , 1999 : The world trade organization , The Europe Union ,
The Arab world trade policy priorities , Pitlaus – working, P . 17 .
120. Direction of trade statistics , IMF " 1993 – 2004 " .
121. United Nation , world population prospects : The " 2000 -2004 " Reoision ,
volume : comprelend sieve Tildes ,Department of Economic and social affairs
population Diosion , New York .
122. Oxley , The challenge of free trade , N . Y , 1999 .
-٣٠٣ -
123. Imam , M, M, 1999 :arab Europen Economic part nership with reference to Syria ,
Egypt , Arabe Economic , Journal , No , 16 , sum .
124. Philippe , Bernard , 1999 : Syrian – European Ymion Economic and jinacial part
nership " paperpresented " .
125. M.G.Kendall an C.A.O ,Moir cheartaish .Bath analysis Building , UFS tech .Bol
. No 12 tech 414 London mar . 1997 .
126. Escwa , based on IMF , Direction of trade statistics year book quarterly
September , 2001 , 2005 .
127. Unctad , world Im vestment Reports " 1996 – 2005 "
128. P.Evans and , Iwalsh , EIU , Guide to the neve catt London , 1999 .
129. Ellis Frank , 1998 , Agricul tural policies in Development countries a Syria
cambridye University Press .
130. Sukaar, Nabil, Syria, 2001: Strategic Economic issues, work shop vision for
Middle East, North Africs, Gammarth, Tunisia, 9-11 Junc, 2004, p.11
131. Hussein. M.EL-Amach, possible Interaction between the budget, Tax reform in
Syria, Economic Research forum for the Arab Countries, Iran, Turkey, Cairo, 1999,
pp7-15
: L # 7 C P
-
www.mowaten.com.
www.Alwatan.com.
www.Iqtissadya.com.
www.Alqtissadnewswy\htm.
www.Alqtissad.com.sy.
www.Alalam.ekt.com.
www.Alsharaq arab.org.
www.Syrianconomy.org.
www.accpss.org\arabic\akurasat\k461/.htm.
www.ArabBorsa.org.
www.Alysouria.org
-٣٠٤ -
ﺍﳌﻼﺣﻖ
-٣٠٥ -
(.) I
TIR 1C 2MC 5
;"0 x0 ' ;! (4 ! ! AI.! (4 6! ;% U
. >1 -9 !9B ! ( A ' -9 !
C09 0' * ! AI.! (4! 4 /9 5 6! U
0 1 (4 (9 ' G /* 7 (- ' ! MN`S/MM/Ma i!
0& .0 MNNO/O/a i0! /aO/ 80 * 8 J9! ! (M)
. 5 $%
<09G 0 (-0 * ! AI.! (4 (- 5 $%
&
(! 5/ $%
<9 (9 + CB ( ! /9 G
. -/ H- ? J -! C -05 ! 5 $%
/SO/ + (M) +45 8/ J9! - 9 !!
5 $%
8/ 7! 5! 4 >1B + CB A '1 ! ?
$%0
0! /S`/ + ( b & R) 45 ' - c 8/ / 7
. + D5 (M) +45 J9! >1 (I! 35! '1
A*0 09 0 0 0 (4 A9* 5 $%
51 . TIR ' -/ J9! + 9 ? "
0 0/ 4 /RP/ (! -! ! 5 $%
& 8. !
J0 " 5 A9* 6 MNNM 8 MP 8 " 6 c
U 0!9& U 0! 8 ; <G ' ' " 8-* & J9B
. ' " x (&) I
W B h$C
0!9 0? ,0! (09 0' ( I! ( ) $9 B F% 81 4
: (" IG !/ U!/ U (Nonexperimental research)
0 30! ]* ! Pedhazur . wright , Simon , Blalock , Kerlinger and
: ( %
' 1
o .../ K* / ;(' 7 J! \ _C # B ^ # F 1
. TIR 5 J! -C J Z B Y - +$ .////;/.9
-٣٠٦ -
: "! ( ' 1 (An exogenous and an endogenous variables ) : 1 = 91 = Q
0 !!0 F%0 7 91 =! 6'1 ;% = 91 =
0= ( H% !! F% ' +9 =! 6'1 ;% = -' 1 =
(4 = 6 + 1 = ( ! Z = Re I* )1 ' 6 91
0! I*0 )1 & '.G! >1 4 = ' A! = 6 >1 +
%0
0! ( Land 1975 ) 4 . ! = + 4 = + !! F% ' 9'
(Originationg – (1 7"! – 1 = >' , = >0 0! 6'1 ( 5 ) & ; F% C- ;% = from within )
0 ;% = (Originationg from without ) Q F% F1 7"! – 91 =
. !! F% 7 91 =! 6'1
( Residual ) : ! Q
-0 0/ 0 = " ( ;% ( Random error ) I* )1 !
. Re ! 6 *! ? (/*! ! D 8 !! F% ' @ (/*! -I
( A direct causal relationship ) : +*! !! Q
( lf and 4' Y A! = X (4 = ! +*! !! 9
!! F% ' 1 / = 4! U Y ' *! = , X ' = only if )
. U !" " 4!
(An indirect causal rela tionship) : +*! ? !! Q
' U"E X / Y A! = X (4 = ! +*! ? !! 9
. >1 = ! Y
(Path coefficient ) : "! ( Q
50 0 U 0 A!0 0= 0 (40 = " Pji "! ( (
. ( i ) (4 = & ( j ) A! = & * (Subscripts )
( ! I9 ( & 6 ' ; "! ( /%! 9
( ' J! ( Moser and Kalton , 1997 ) > Beta weights = BjS )
! ! ! ( ( /& & & $9 B F% ' "! ( 8! I9
0' (Paths ) – H0 – 0 ! = ! ( +*! ? "g +*! "g & =
. !! F%
( A recursive causal model ) : $9 ;B !! F% Q
-٣٠٧ -
( / !! F% %
' 8 , $9 !! 6' / ;% F% 0! !! -B U 4' = J F% %
5' = ! Reciprocal causation )
. ' X = U!! / Y = / ' Y = U !! X = / %K'
(Aunidirectional arrow ) : $9 ;B 8- Q
0' (9 ;% ) A! = & ( U!! ;% ) (4 = 8 84 8- . !! F%
-٣٠٨ -
ﺍﻟﻔﻬﺮﺱ
5
R-
R
7 1@: 2B 25
S
: 34 7 : 2B L
S
: 91 9 (QMQMQM
O
. QMQMQMQM
O
. QRQMQMQM
MP
. C QVQMQMQM
MM
. 91 +9 / 9 WIQaQMQMQM
MO
: 1 1 23 : CH L
MS
: QMQRQM
RM
. (/- QMQMQRQM
RM
. ! J (/-QRQMQRQM
RV
. 81 J + C QVQMQRQM
Ra
. '=9 L QaQMQRQM
RO
: QRQRQM
VV
(/-QMQRQRQM
Vb
. '=9 LQRQRQRQM
aM
. ; ;9 QVQRQM
aa
: 7 # >7 4M 3 : LH L
SP
. c1 8 4 /- ! QMQVQM
SS
: + 1 # : P L
S`
. ( MNONQ MNOP) +5 (1 ; ' QMQaQM
bP
. (MNNNQMNNP) +5 (1 ; ' QRQaQM
bV
. (RPPSQRPPP) +5 (1 ; ' QVQaQM
bN
+ 6 C 3% 7 : CH 25
`b
: # 7 3B : 2B L
`b
: 4 (1 !! -
91 +9 – MQMQR
`O
.!" B! 9G W ' 91 +9 L Q MQMQMQR
OM
.9 B! 9G W ' 91 +9 L QRQMQMQR
Ob
D 1 4 7 R4 1HY : CH L
-٣٠٩ -
: # ^7B
Ob
. ' L 91 +9 QMQRQR
NM
. ' 91 +9 QRQRQR
N`
. ' 91 +9 5 L QVQRQR
MPP
0) 0I 91 +9 ! ( QaQRQR
. ( MPO
' 91 +9 (4 L QSQRQR
MRb
: 1 7 1@ 4 : LH L
MRN
. 91 +9 1 " QMQVQR
MVa
.91 +9 L 1 " ! RQVQR
MVS
. 91 +9 +9' 4 VQVQR
MaM
: 7 P + 6 : P L
MaV
. F1 ; C*/ 9 QMQaQR
MaS
. 9 QRQaQR
Ma`
. / 9 QVQaQR
MaO
. '=9 / *E QaQaQR
MaN
. '=9 / *E QSQaQR
MSP
. 9/ ! *E QbQaQR
MSP
. ( Q`QaQR
MSM
. 91 8 A ;9 (! (QOQaQR
MS`
LH 25
7 J C # >D7
MSO
: # C : 2B L
MbP
: ' / QMQMQV
MbM
. !1 QMQMQMQV
MbS
. ' QRQMQMQV
Mbb
.+9- QVQMQMQV
M`P
: / '=9 LQRQMQV
M`M
. ' J / A QMQRQMQV
M`S
. ' / ; J/ QVQMQV
M`O
: ' / A !4 E! QaQMQV
MOV
. ' / A ; QMQaQMQV
-٣١٠ -
MOV
. / ; ( ' A = QR – aQMQV
MOa
. A 81 ( QVQaQMQV
MOS
. A 81 ' ( QaQaQMQV
MOb
. / ; J/ ' A ! =QSQaQMQV
MO`
: 7 J C 1
C : CH L
MNP
. 91 +9 ' 5 J QMQRQV
MNN
. 91 +9 / F1 ' QRQRQV
RPa
P 25
+ VC 2V # 7 RPb
: 7 J 3H% 1 : 2B L
RPb
: 91 +9 " – !B /* QMQMQa
RMP
. 91 +9 – !B /* !9 /QMQMQMQa
RMM
. 91 +9 – !B /* ! / QRQMQMQa
RMS
.( WTO) +9 & 8. "2 QRQMQa
RM`
. +9 & 8. ! QMQRQMQa
RMO
. +9 & 8. B QRQRQMQa
RRR
. +9 & 8. 8 8. ! QVQRQMQa
RRa
: 91 +9 " >!/ ! + +9 4 5 QVQMQa
RRa
. >!/ ! + +9 4 8 J! QMQVQMQa
RRb
. !! >!/ ! + +9 4 B QRQVQMQa
RRb
. >!/ ! + +9 4 8/ 7! -%1 <9G QVQVQMQa
RRO
(0 0! ;9 (! >!/ ! + +9 4 5 " QaQVQMQa
. !
RVV
: 7 2: CH L
RVV
. 91 +9 ( ' C QMQRQa
RVN
. 91 +9 ( ' 1 1 QRQRQa
RaR
. 91 +9 ( ' +*! !9B " QVQRQa
RaV
. !9B " QMQVQRQa
RaV
. ' ;" x QRQVQRQa
Ra`
. & !9B " 7' QVQVQRQa
RaO
. ' *! !9B " ") QaQVQRQa
RSa
. 91 91 +9 ! QaQRQa
-٣١١ -
RSb
. 91 91 +9 QMQaQRQa
RbP
. 1 UDC
R`P
. 7
R`M
.P
ROP
.I6
ﻓﻬﺮﺱ ﺍﳉﺪﺍﻭﻝ
5
R-
2
;
. (RPPSQMNOP) +5 (1 91 +9 *E
M
.&
.! 4 R
MO
. ( RPPPSQ MNOP) +5 9 B! -= ! V
RR
( RPPSQMNOP )+5 + ! J ! J/
a
RV
( RPPSQMNOP )+5 + 81 J J/
S
RS
(RPPSQMNOP )+5 (/ & ! J/
b
RN
W 91 +9 9& & -!( RPPSQMNOP )+5 (1 .9 B! 9G
`
VV
( RPPSQMNOP) +5 + 81 J + ; ! B
O
VS
( RPPSQMNOP) +5 + ! J ! J/
N
V`
( RPPSQ MNOP) +5 (/ J ! J/
MP
aM
. (RPMSQRPMP) (1 A ; ;9 MM
aR
.( RPPSQMNOP )+5 ; ;9 MR
aS
SP
SM
SV
0 09& 0& c1 8 4 ! J/ ;9 .( RPPSQMNOP )+5 (RPPSQMNOP) +5 (5 ! 5 A) ' c1 8 4 +05 c01 80 04 0 810 ! J 5 A ! J/
. (RPPSQMNOP)
+05 c01 80 04 0 810 0! J ! J/
. (RPPSQMNOP)
MV
Ma
MS
Mb
SN
(MNONQMNOP )+5 ' 4
M`
bR
(MNNNQMNNP )+5 ' 4
MO
bS
( RPPSQRPP) 8Y ' 4
MN
``
( RPPSQMNOO )+5 ' 4 RP
`O
( RPPSQMNOP) +5 !" RPPP )! 9G W ' ;9 L4 8-&
RM
OP
(RPPSQMNNP) +5 (1 1 A 9G W ! (
RR
-٣١٢ -
.
OR
+05 (01 9 B! 9G W & ! / J/
.(RPPSQMNOP)
RV
OV
. ( RPPSQMNNP) +5 9G W ! !1 ! (
Ra
O`
. ( RPPSQMNOP) +5 ! J/ ;9 (! RS
NR
0 0 09& & ! ;9 . ( RPPSQMNOP) +5 Rb
NS
. RPPS 8 ' + + 3!
R`
NM
( RPPSQMNOP) +5 9& & 81 5 J/
RO
NN
(RPPSQMNOP) +5 ' 9& & -! 5 RN
MPN
+05 0 0 09& 0 0! 0- (4 I ! A
. ( RPPSQMNOP)
VP
MMR
. + 7 ' " VM
MMV
+ 7 ;9 AI.! / *E
VR
MMS
. + 7 ' A VV
MM`
. (RPPSQMNOM) +5 .B ! /
Va
MMN
. (RPPSQMNOP) +5 (1 E (1G / VS
MVb
. (RPPSQMNOM) +5 D % ;)' ! + + AI.! / Vb
MR`
+05 (01 !" B! !" ( D / H- ' 1 A ] 1
.(RPPSQMNOP)
V`
MVM
.(RPPSQMNOP) +5 (1 !" RPPP )! 9G W 75G
VO
MVO
. 91 +9 +9' 4 +9' 4
VN
MaM
. (RPPaQMNNR) +5 (1 ! +9 & 91 +9 ! J/
aP
Maa
. !" RPPP )! (RPPSQMNOP) +5 91 8 ; C*/ 9
aM
Mab
.(RPPSQMNOP) +5 (1 ' 9
aR
Ma`
.(RPPSQMNOP) +5 / 9
aV
MaO
. (RPPSQMNOP) +5 (1 '=9 /
aa
MaN
. (RPPSQMNOP) +5 '=9 /
aS
MSM
.(RPPSQMNOP) +5 ' ( ab
MSR
. 8 A (! / 84 4 8
a`
MSS
.(RPPaQMNNM) +5 +9 ; !
aO
MSO
.( RPPSQMNOP) +5 ' / aN
MSN
. 4 % ' / SP
MSN
( RPPaQMNOM)+5 8 4 ( 3! ' / SM
MbM
. ( RPPSQMN`P) +5 (1 ' 81 ( SR
MbR
.8 + ' / !1 (
SV
MbV
.G J 8 + ' / !1 (
Sa
MbV
. 8 ( ' / !1 (
SS
Mba
. 8 + ' !1 Sb
-٣١٣ -
MbS
. 8 + ' 81 ' (
S`
Mbb
. RPPR 8 ' 8 ( ' 81 ' (
SO
MbN
. MNOM ' ! +9-
SN
MbN
. RPPP ' ! +9-
bP
M`M
. 9& ' (/ ! ' > / ! A
bM
M`a
' / / ! A ' J / ! A
.RPPa8
bR
M`S
. (RPPSQMN`P) 8Y ' / ! ; J/
bV
M`b
. 8 ( RPPV 8 ' / ; J/
ba
MOV
!B (I! "4' RPMSQRPP` +5 (1 / 4
bS
MOa
. 4 ( ( ! ( / ; ( 4
bb
MOa
. 4 ( ( ! ( / 5. b`
MOS
. ' 81 ( 4
bO
MOS
. ' 81 ' ( 4
bN
MOb
!B (I! U4' (RPMSQRPPM) +5 (1 I5 J / ! J/ 4
.
`P
MON
. (RPPSQMNOP) +5 (1 H- 5 J
`M
MNP
. (RPPSQMNOP) +5 5 J
`R
MNM
" 9& ' '= " ! J/
`V
MNO
. !" RPPP )! 9G W 5 J `a
MNN
. W 5 J 9G W / ; (
`S
RPP
A0 0 0' 09 -= ! F1 ' . (RPPSQMNOP) +5 1
`b
RPO
. (RPPSQMNNP) +5 (1 !B ( ! ;9 ``
RPN
. (RPPaQRPPP) 8Y !B ( & B `O
RPN
+05 (01 0!B 0 ( 30! 0& 0 ! J/
. (RPPaQMNNP)
`N
RRS
. ! 91 +9 ' ! - ! ! 91 +9 OP
RRO
91 +9 ' ; ! 4 I </*
OM
RRO
.(RPPaQMNN`) +5 ! ( ! ;9 (!
OR
RRN
.(RPPaQMNN`) 8Y ! ( A ; ;9 (!
OV
RVP
. (RPPaQMNN`) +5 I" 5 % ! ( A ;9 (!
Oa
RVa
. (RPPSQMNOP) +5 ' 34 9& C OS
RVS
.(RPPSQMNOP) +5 (1 4 ] C
Ob
RVb
. ; ;9 C 5 9& 91 +9 O`
RV`
. / J 4 5 ! J/
OO
RaP
. ' " 9& & -! 1 1 J 91 +9 L "
ON
RaM
. 1 1 ' ;9 NP
Ra`
.(RPPSQMNNP) 8Y & +*! !9B " 7'
NM
-٣١٤ -
RSV
. *! !9B " * / ' NR
RS`
.(RPPaQMNNP) +5 1 A W & 91 8 9& !
NV
-٣١٥ -
ﻓﻬﺮﺱ ﺍﻷﺷﻜﺎﻝ
5
R-
2
RR
. 9& & ! J !
M
Ra
81 J J/
R
VR
.9G W 91 +9 9& & ! J/
V
VN
. '=9 L
a
aN
. c1 8 4 ! L
S
MPS
. "! ( I- WI ! 8
b
MPO
."! ( I- WI
`
M`a
.RPPa 8 ' ' J / A O
M``
. RPPaQMNSP 8B (1 $ ' / 8-
N
-٣١٦ -
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz