Gmail - Policy Analysis: The Gap Separating Rich from Poor in Syria
٤ ‫ ﻣﻦ‬١ ‫ﺻﻔ ﺤﺔ‬
Dr. Samer Kantakji <[email protected]>
Policy Analysis: The Gap Separating Rich from Poor in
Syria
SRCC <[email protected]>
To: [email protected]
Mon, Aug 8, 2011 at 5:35 PM
Policy Analysis
Syria and Arab Countries:
A General Comparison of the State of Poverty
8 August 2011
Poverty, simply defined, is an inability to secure basic human needs, in particular food,
water, clothing and shelter - necessities without which ordinary life cannot continue.
However, there are other aspects of poverty which are no less significant. These
include the loss of human dignity and the inability to participate effectively and proactively in public life in a political, economic, social and cultural sense. Moreover,
poverty turns its victims into frustrated jobless citizens that can easily be mobilized
under certain political, social and economic circumstances. Such spontaneous
mobilization is like an explosion of a ticking time bomb causing a great deal of harm to
society and state.
In analysing poverty levels across Arab countries, one can observe varying degrees of
complexity and causes which is reflected in the present political, economic and social
realities of Arab states. It can be said that poverty is a current issue within every Arab
country and is a common theme in discussions of the Arab spring. There are however
certain dissimilarities, as a result of which these countries can be grouped into three
levels in terms of their relationship with poverty.
The first group of countries are those stricken by extreme poverty, within which the
proportion of poor people exceeds half of the population. Among this group are
countries such as Somalia, Palestine and Yemen where a majority of the population
suffer from poverty, many of them even fall within the classification of extreme
poverty. The social, economical and political deterioration in those states can be visible
with deep-rroted ramifications.
The second category includes countries such as Egypt, Syria and Jordan. The
proportion of poor people within their populations totals around forty per cent, around
half of whom are living in extreme poverty levels. The various implications of the
poverty indicators are clear within these countries and comprise a major factor leading
to the Arab spring in 2011.
The third category of poverty within the Arab states comprises resource-rich countries
such as Algeria and Iraq. There are poverty-stricken classes living within these
countries, some of them destitute, the proportion rises as high as twenty per cent of
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Gmail - Policy Analysis: The Gap Separating Rich from Poor in Syria
٤ ‫ ﻣﻦ‬٢ ‫ﺻﻔﺤﺔ‬
the population. There are clear indications within these countries of the existence of
poverty.
In general terms, the causes of poverty in Arab states can be classified into external
and internal factors. The primary external cause is the geo-political environment
within which the Arab states' international relations are conducted, in particular with
regards to the economy and finance. Although the external factor is not detrimental on
its own, as seen with rise of southeast Asian countries, it is more focused on political
and economic ability and intelligence of states to make international and regional
financial decisions. Most Arab countries have a corrupt authoritarian regime that
deems it incapable of making foreign relations decisions that impact their societies
positively. With regards to internal causes, the most significant are the imbalanced
policies pursued by Arab governments in the fields of economic development added to
extreme levels of corruption. This includes their bias in favour of the rich at the
expense of the poor, the lowering rates of development, the growth of unemployment,
and the rising rate of inflation, which robs income of its purchasing power. Among the
internal reasons are primarily political and financial corruption, lack of transparency
and the inability to enforce laws and regulations fairly.
The effects of these policies lead not only to the perpetuation of poverty, but more to
its escalation and deepening roots over time. According to some estimates, huge
increases in population may result in a doubling of poverty within Arab countries over
the coming two decades, unless fundamental political and economic reforms are
undertaken by these states. A serious shift in policies is required in order to involve
civil society with the state in a comprehensive multi-layered approach to development
that aims at achieving high growth rates of around ten per cent, a fair and equitable
distribution of income along side with the rooting out of corruption.
Although Syria suffers from similar features of deep-rooted poverty as other Arab
states such as Egypt and Jordan, Syria differs from them in certain important aspects,
including the following:
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The population growth rate in Syria is higher than other countries of the same
group. In fact, it has one of the highest population growth rates in the Arab
world of 2.5%. This is likely to continue in the foreseeable future.
The wide-spread phenomenon of a shadow economy stands out in Syria against
other Arab states. This is a system based on the illegal and illegitimate principles
of tax evasion, smuggling, bribery, corruption and so on, the proceeds of which
exceed hundreds of billions of Syrian pounds. Syria endures a level of corruption
which is among the highest in the Arab world according to the Freedom House
and Transparency Institute. This corruption involves the various levels of the
executive body, judiciary, legislative, the military and the Ba’th Party.
Syria is suffering more than other Arab countries from crises resulting from
drought and lack of rainfall. This has a negative impact on its agriculture and
livestock, both of which are among its basic resources. It also has a negative
impact on the population, as large numbers of people are forced into internal
and external migration.
Syria also has the Arab world's lowest levels of media transparency, as authority
continues to have a strong presence, particularly in the section of the media
under government control. This furthers the lack of transparency in information
being available equally and fairly to the general population.
Naturally, the presence of these factors within the Syrian economy renders the country
more susceptible than others to an escalation of the phenomenon of poverty. Given the
increasing levels of corruption and lack of the rule of law, poverty is expected to
further deepen and escalate especially with the high rate of population increase and
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‫‪Gmail - Policy Analysis: The Gap Separating Rich from Poor in Syria‬‬
‫‪the lack of sustainable development policies.‬‬
‫‪The looming dangers of poverty in the Arab world have been a common theme in the‬‬
‫‪Arab spring revolutions. As a future transitional phase is within reach in Syria, policy‬‬
‫‪makers should think of a serious shift in economic development policies that go‬‬
‫‪beyond cosmetic reforms implemented in the previous era. This would require a‬‬
‫‪collaborative effort of state institutions with civil society groups to develop a strategy‬‬
‫‪for the coming period that deals with combating corruption, implementing sustainable‬‬
‫‪development programs that include economic as well as human development aspects,‬‬
‫‪and tackle the issue of poverty and unemployment. Other policies that should be‬‬
‫‪looked at include the effects of the waves of drought and the decline in the agricultural‬‬
‫‪seasons. These measures cannot be realised in the absence of participation,‬‬
‫‪transparency, a democratic system, and most importantly under the lack of media‬‬
‫‪freedoms.‬‬
‫ﺳورﯾﺔ واﻟﺑﻠدان اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ؛ ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻔﻘر‬
‫‪ ٨‬آب‪/‬أﻏﺳطس ‪٢٠١١‬‬
‫ﯾﻌﺗﺑر اﻟﻔﻘر ﻓﻲ أﺳﺎﺳﮫ ﻋﺟز ﻋن ﺗﺄﻣﯾن اﻻﺣﺗﯾﺎﺟﺎت اﻹﺳﺎﺳﯾﺔ ﻟﻺﻧﺳﺎن‪ ،‬وﻻﺳﯾﻣﺎ اﻟﻐذاء واﻟﻣﺎء واﻟﻠﺑﺎس واﻟﺳﻛن‪ ،‬وھﻲ‬
‫اﺣﺗﯾﺎﺟﺎت ﻻﯾﻣﻛن ان ﺗﺳﺗﻣر اﻟﺣﯾﺎة ﺑﺻورة طﺑﯾﻌﯾﺔ ﺑدوﻧﮭﺎ‪ .‬ﻏﯾر أن اﻟﻔﻘر ﯾﺗﺿﻣن ﻣﺣﺗوﯾﺎت أﺧرى‪ ،‬ﻻﺗﻘل أھﻣﯾﺔ ﻋن‬
‫اﻟﻣﺣﺗوﯾﺎت اﻟﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪ ،‬إذ ﺑﯾن ﻣﺣﺗوﯾﺎﺗﮫ ھدر اﻟﻛراﻣﺔ اﻹﻧﺳﺎﻧﯾﺔ‪ ،‬واﻟﻌﺟز ﻋن اﻟﻣﺷﺎرﻛﺔ اﻟﻔﺎﻋﻠﺔ واﻟﻧﺎﺷطﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺣﯾﺎة اﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺟواﻧﺑﮭﺎ اﻟﺳﯾﺎﺳﯾﺔ واﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ واﻻﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﯾﺔ واﻟﺛﻘﺎﻓﯾﺔ‪ ،‬وھو إﻟﻰ ﻣﺎ ﺳﺑق‪ ،‬ﯾﺟﻌل ﻣن اﻟﻔﻘراء ﻗﻧﺎﺑل ﻣوﻗوﺗﺔ‪ ،‬ﯾﻣﻛن أن ﺗﻧﻔﺟر ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺳﯾﺎق ظواھر ﺳﯾﺎﺳﯾﺔ واﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﯾﺔ واﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ‪ .‬وﺑﺎﻧﻔﺟﺎرھﺎ ﯾﻣﻛن أن ﺗﻠﺣق اﻟﻛﺛﯾر ﻣن اﻷﺿرار اﻟﻔﺎدﺣﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ واﻟدوﻟﺔ‬
‫وﺑﺎﻹﺳﺗﻧﺎد إﻟﻰ ﻣﺣﺗوﯾﺎت اﻟﻔﻘر اﻟﺗﻲ ﯾُﻣﻛن أن ﺗﺗﺿﻣن ﻣﺳﺗوﯾﺎت ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻧﮫ ﻣﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ اﻟوﻗﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﺳﯾﺎﺳﯾﺔ واﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ‬
‫واﻻﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﯾﺔ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺑﻠدان اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﮫ ﯾﻣﻛن اﻟﻘول أن اﻟﻔﻘر ﯾُﻣ َﺛل ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺣﺎﺿرة ﻓﻲ ﻛل اﻟدول اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ وﺟود‬
‫ﺗﻣﺎﯾزات ﺗﺟﻌل ﺗﻠك اﻟﺑﻠدان ﺗﻧدرج ﻓﻲ ﺛﻼث ﻣﺳﺗوﯾﺎت ﻟﺟﮭﺔ ﻋﻼﻗﺗﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻘر‬
‫أول ھذه اﻟﻣﺳﺗوﯾﺎت‪ ،‬ﺗﻣﺛﻠﮫ اﻟﺑﻠدان ﺷدﯾدة اﻟﻔﻘر‪ ،‬واﻟﺗﻲ ﺗزﯾد ﻧﺳﺑﺔ اﻟﻔﻘراء ﻣن ﺳﻛﺎﻧﮭﺎ ﻋن ﻧﺻف اﻟﺳﻛﺎن‪ ،‬وﺗﻧدرج ﻓﻲ ﻋدادھﺎ‬
‫ﺑﻠدان ﻣﻧﮭﺎ اﻟﺻوﻣﺎل وﻓﻠﺳطﯾن واﻟﯾﻣن‪ ،‬اﻟﺗﻲ ﯾﻌﺎﻧﻲ أﻏﻠب اﻟﺳﻛﺎن ﻓﯾﮭﺎ ﻣن اﻟﻔﻘر‪ ،‬وﻗﺳم ﻛﺑﯾر ﻣﻧﮭم ﯾﻌﺎﻧﻲ ﻣن اﻟﻔﻘر اﻟﺷدﯾد‪،‬‬
‫وﻛﻼھﻣﺎ ﺗراﻓﻘﮫ ﺗردﯾﺎت ﻣﺗﻌددة‪ ،‬ذات ﺗﻌﺎﺑﯾر ﻣﻌﻠﻧﺔ‬
‫واﻟﻣﺳﺗوى اﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﺗﻧدرج ﻓﻲ ﺗﻌداده ﺑﻠدان ﺑﯾﻧﮭﺎ ﻣﺻر وﺳورﯾﺔ واﻷردن‪ ،‬وﺗﺻل ﻧﺳﺑﺔ اﻟﻔﻘر ﺑﯾن ﺳﻛﺎﻧﮫ إﻟﻰ ﻧﺣو أرﺑﻌﯾن‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺎﺋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻧﺻﻔﮭم ﻓﻲ ﻣﺳﺗوى اﻟﻔﻘر اﻟﺷدﯾد‪ .‬وﻣؤﺷرات اﻟﻔﻘر ﻓﻲ ھذه اﻟﺑﻠدان واﺿﺣﺔ ﻓﻲ دﻻﻻﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬واﻷزﻣﺎت اﻟﻣرﺗﺑطﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻘر ظﺎھرة وﻣﻌﻠﻧﺔ‬
‫وﯾﺗﺿﻣن اﻟﻣﺳﺗوى اﻟﺛﺎﻟث ﻣن ﺑﻠدان اﻟﻔﻘر اﻟﻌرﺑﻲ‪ ،‬ﺑﻠداﻧﺎ ً ﻏﻧﯾﺔ ﻣﺛل اﻟﺟزاﺋر واﻟﻌراق‪ ،‬اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﻌﯾش ﻓﯾﮭﺎ ﻓﺋﺎت ﻓﻘﯾرة‪ ،‬وﺑﻌﺿﮭﺎ‬
‫ﻓﺋﺎت ﻣﻌدﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﯾﻣﻛن أن ﺗﺻل ﻧﺳﺑﺗﮭﺎ ﻣن اﻟﺳﻛﺎن إﻟﻰ ﺣدود اﻟﻌﺷرﯾن ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺎﺋﺔ‪ ،‬وﺛﻣﺔ ﻣؤﺷرات واﺿﺣﺔ ﻓﯾﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ وﺟود اﻟﻔﻘر‬
‫وﺑﺻورة ﻋﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈن أﺳﺑﺎب اﻟﻔﻘر ﻓﻲ اﻟﺑﻠدان اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ ﺗﺗوزع ﻣﺎﺑﯾن أﺳﺑﺎب ﺧﺎرﺟﯾﺔ وأﺧرى داﺧﻠﯾﺔ‪ .‬واﻷھم ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﺑﺎب‬
‫اﻟﺧﺎرﺟﯾﺔ اﻟﺑﯾﺋﺔ اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺟري داﺧﻠﮭﺎ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت اﻟدوﻟﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﺑﻠدان اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ‪ ،‬وﻻﺳﯾﻣﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺟﺎﻧﺑﯾن اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدي واﻟﻣﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺣﯾث ﺗﺣظﻰ‬
‫اﻟدول اﻷﻏﻧﻰ واﻷﻗوى ﺑﻣﯾ ﱢزات ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺳﺎب اﻟدول اﻷﻗل ﻏﻧﻰ وﻗوة وﻛل اﻟدول اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ ﺗﻧدرج ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻣﺔ اﻟﺛﺎﻧﯾﺔ‪ .‬أﻣﺎ اﻷھم‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﺑﺎب اﻟداﺧﻠﯾﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺄﺳﺎﺳ ُﮫ اﻟﺳﯾﺎﺳﺎت ﻏﯾر اﻟﻣﺗوازﻧﺔ اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﻧﺗﮭﺟﮭﺎ اﻟﺣﻛوﻣﺎت اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﯾﺎدﯾن اﻟﺗﻧﻣﯾﺔ اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ ﻟﺟﮭﺔ‬
‫ﻣﯾﻠﮭﺎ ﻟﺻﺎﻟﺢ اﻟﻔﺋﺎت اﻷﻏﻧﻰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺳﺎب اﻟﻔﺋﺎت اﻟﻔﻘﯾرة‪ ،‬واﻧﺧﻔﺎض ﻣﻌدﻻت اﻟﺗﻧﻣﯾﺔ وﺗﻧﺎﻣﻲ اﻟﺑطﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬وارﺗﻔﺎع ﻣﻌدﻻت اﻟﺗﺿﺧم‬
‫اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺟﻌل اﻟﻣداﺧﯾل ﺗﻔﻘد ﻗدرﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﺷراﺋﯾﺔ‬
‫وﺗؤدي ھذه اﻟﺳﯾﺎﺳﺎت وﻧﺗﺎﺋﺟﮭﺎ‪ ،‬ﻟﯾس إﻟﻰ اﺳﺗﻣرار اﻟﻔﻘر ﻓﺣﺳب ﺑل إﻟﻰ ﻣﻔﺎﻗﻣﺗﮫ ﻣﻊ اﻟوﻗت‪ .‬وطﺑﻘﺎ ً ﻟﺗﻘدﯾرات اﻟﺧﺑراء ﻓﺈن‬
‫اﻟﻔﻘر ﯾﻣﻛن أن ﯾﺗﺿﺎﻋف ﻓﻲ اﻟﺑﻠدان اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻌﻘدﯾن اﻟﻘﺎدﻣﯾن ﻣﻊ اﻟزﯾﺎدة اﻟﮭﺎﺋﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺳﻛﺎن ﻣﺎ ﻟم ﺗﺣﺻل إﺻﻼﺣﺎت‬
‫ﺟوھرﯾﺔ ﻣن اﻟﻧﺎﺣﯾﺗﯾن اﻟﺳﯾﺎﺳﯾﺔ واﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺑﻠدان اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗؤدي إﻟﻰ اﺷراك اﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ اﻟﻣدﻧﻲ إﻟﻰ ﺟﺎﻧب اﻟدوﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫إﺣداث طﻔرات ﺗﻧﻣوﯾﺔ ذات ﻣﻌدﻻت ﻧﻣو ﻋﺎﻟﯾﺔ ﺗﻘﺎرب اﻟﻌﺷرة ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺎﺋﺔ‪ ،‬وﺗوزﯾﻊ ﻋﺎدل ﻟﻠدﺧل‪ ،‬وﻣواﺟﮭﺔ ﺟذرﯾﺔ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻔﺳﺎد‬
‫إن ﺳورﯾﺔ ‪-‬ﺑﺻﻔﺗﮭﺎ واﺣدة ﻣن اﻟدول اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ‪ -‬ﺗﻧطﺑق ﻋﻠﯾﮭﺎ اﻟﻣﻼﻣﺢ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻔﻘر ﻓﻲ اﻟﺑﻠدان اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ‪ ،‬وﻻﺳﯾﻣﺎ‬
‫ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ اﻟﺑﻠدان اﻟﻣﺻﻧﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻣﺳﺗوى اﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﻣﺛل ﻣﺻر واﻷردن‪ ،‬اﻟﺗﻲ ھﻲ ﺑﻠدان ﻣﺣدودة ﻓﻲ ﻣواردھﺎ ﻣن ﺟﮭﺔ‪ ،‬وﻓﯾﮭﺎ‬
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‫ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ‪ ٤‬ﻣﻦ ‪٤‬‬
‫‪Gmail - Policy Analysis: The Gap Separating Rich from Poor in Syria‬‬
‫ﻣﺳﺗوﯾﺎت ﻣن اﻟﻔﻘر ﯾﻘﺎرب ﺗﻠك اﻟدول‪ ،‬ﻟﻛﻧﮭﺎ ﺗﺧﺗﻠف ﻋن ﺗﻠك اﻟدول ﻓﻲ ﺑﻌض ﻣن اﻟﻣﻌطﯾﺎت اﻷھم ﻓﯾﮭﺎ‬
‫أوﻻ ً ‪ -‬إن ﻣﻌدﻻت اﻟﻧﻣو اﻟﺳﻛﺎﻧﻲ ھو أﻋﻠﻰ ﻣن ﺑﻘﯾﺔ ﺑﻠدان اﻟﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑل ھو ﻣن أﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌدﻻت ﻧﻣو اﻟﺳﻛﺎن ﺑﯾن اﻟدول‬
‫اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﯾث ﺑﻠﻎ ‪ ٢،٥‬ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺎﺋﺔ‪ ،‬وھو ﻣرﺷﺢ ﻟﻼﺳﺗﻣرار ﻓﻲ اﻟﻣدى اﻟﻣﻧظور‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﯾﺎ ً ‪-‬إن ﺑﯾن أﺳﺑﺎب اﻟﻔﻘر ﻓﻲ ﺳورﯾﺔ ﺷﯾوع ظﺎھرة اﻗﺗﺻﺎد اﻟظل‪ ،‬وھو اﻗﺗﺻﺎد ﯾﻘوم ﻋﻠﻰ أ ُﺳس ﻏﯾر ﻗﺎﻧوﻧﯾﺔ وأﺧرى ﻏﯾر‬
‫ﻣﺷروﻋﺔ‪ ،‬وﻣﻧﮭﺎ اﻟﺗﮭرب اﻟﺿرﯾﺑﻲ واﻟﺗﮭرﯾب واﻟرﺷﺎوي واﻟﻔﺳﺎد وﻏﯾرھﺎ ﻣن أﻧﺷطﺔ ﺗﺗﺟﺎوز أﻣواﻟﮭﺎ ﻣﺋﺎت ﻣﻠﯾﺎرات اﻟﻠﯾرات‬
‫اﻟﺳورﯾﺔ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻟﺛﺎ ً ‪ -‬إن ﺳورﯾﺔ ﺗﻌﺎﻧﻲ أﻛﺛر ﻣن ﺑﻘﯾﺔ اﻟدول اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ اﻷﺧرى ﻣن اﻷزﻣﺎت اﻟﻧﺎﺗﺟﺔ ﻋن اﻟﺟﻔﺎف واﻧﺣﺑﺎس اﻷﻣطﺎر‪ ،‬ﻣﻣﺎ‬
‫ﯾﻧﻌﻛس ﺳﻠﺑﺎ ً ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣواﺳﻣﮭﺎ اﻟزراﻋﯾﺔ وﺛروﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﺣﯾواﻧﯾﺔ‪ ،‬وﻛﻼھﻣﺎ ﺑﯾن ﻣواردھﺎ اﻷﺳﺎﺳﯾﺔ‪ .‬ﻛﻣﺎ ﺗﻧﻌﻛس ﺳﻠﺑﺎ ً ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻛﺎﻧﮭﺎ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﺗدﻓﻊ أﻋداد ﻛﺑﯾرة ﻣﻧﮭم إﻟﻰ ھﺟرة داﺧﻠﯾﺔ وﺧﺎرﺟﯾﺔ‬
‫راﺑﻌﺎ ً ‪ -‬إن ﺳورﯾﺔ ﺗﻌﺎﻧﻲ ﻣن ﻣﺳﺗوى ﻓﺳﺎد ھو ﺑﯾن اﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺳﺗوﯾﺎت اﻟﻔﺳﺎد ﺑﯾن اﻟﺑﻠدان اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ‪ ،‬وإن ھذا اﻟﻔﺳﺎد ﯾﺷﻣل‬
‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗوﯾﺎت اﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺟﮭزة اﻹدارﯾﺔ اﻟﺗﻧﻔﯾذﯾﺔ إﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ اﻟﺟﮭﺎز اﻟﻘﺿﺎﺋﻲ‬
‫ﺧﺎﻣﺳﺎ ً ‪ -‬ﻛﻣﺎ أن ﺳورﯾﺔ أﻗل اﻟﺑﻠدان اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺳﺗوﯾﺎت اﻟﺷﻔﺎﻓﯾﺔ اﻹﻋﻼﻣﯾﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﯾث ﻣﺎزاﻟت اﻟﺳﻠطﺔ ﺣﺎﺿرة ﺑﻘوة وﻻﺳﯾﻣﺎ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻣﯾدان اﻹﻋﻼم اﻟﻣﺣﻛوم ﺑﺎﻟﺳﯾطرة اﻟﺣﻛوﻣﯾﺔ‬
‫وﺑطﺑﯾﻌﺔ اﻟﺣﺎل‪ ،‬ﻓﺈن ﺣﺿور ھذه اﻟﻣﻌطﯾﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟواﻗﻊ اﻟﺳوري ﯾﺟﻌل ﻣن ﺳورﯾﺔ أﻛﺛر ﻣن ﻏﯾرھﺎ ﻋرﺿﺔ ﻟﻣﻔﺎﻗﻣﺔ ظﺎھرة‬
‫اﻟﻔﻘر‪ ،‬اﻷﻣر اﻟذي ﯾﻌﻧﻲ أﻧﮭﺎ ﯾﻣﻛن أن ﺗﻧﺗﻘل إﻟﻰ ﺑﻠدان اﻟﻣﺳﺗوى اﻷول ﻣن ﺑﻠدان اﻟﻔﻘر اﻟﻌرﺑﻲ ﻣﺛل اﻟﯾﻣن واﻟﺻوﻣﺎل‬
‫وﻓﻠﺳطﯾن‪ ،‬اﻟﺗﻲ ﯾرﺗﻔﻊ ﻓﯾﮭﺎ ﻣﺳﺗوى اﻟﻔﻘر إﻟﻰ ﻓوق اﻟﺧﻣﺳﯾن ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺎﺋﺔ ﻣن اﻟﺳﻛﺎن‬
‫إن اﻷﺧطﺎر اﻟﻣﺣﯾطﺔ ﺑﺎﻟواﻗﻊ اﻟﺳوري ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﻣﺎ ھو ﻋﻠﯾﮫ اﻟﺣﺎل ﻓﻲ اﻟﺑﻠدان اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ اﻷﺧرى‪ ،‬ﻛﺎن أھم ﻣﺑررات اﻟﺛورة‬
‫اﻟﺳورﯾﺔ ﺑﻌد ﻓﺷل اﻟﺳﯾﺎﺳﺎت اﻟﺣﻛوﻣﯾﺔ ﻣن إﺟراء أي ﺗﺣﺳن ﻓﻲ ﻣﺳﺗوى اﻟﻔﻘر ﺑل وزادت ﻣن ﺗﻔﺎﻗﻣﮫ وﺗﻌﻘد ﻣﺷﻛﻼﺗﮫ‪ .‬إن‬
‫اﻟﻣطﻠوب ﻓﻲ ﺳورﯾﺔ ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺎت أﻛﺛر ﺟذرﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺗﺻدي ﻟﻣﺷﻛﻠﺔ اﻟﻔﻘر؛ ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺎت ﺗﺷﺗرك ﻓﯾﮭﺎ اﻟدوﻟﺔ واﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ اﻟﻣدﻧﻲ ﺑﺻورة‬
‫ﻣﺷﺗرﻛﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘوم ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣواﺟﮭﺔ ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺗﻠك اﻟﺧﺻوﺻﯾﺎت‪ ،‬وﻻﺳﯾﻣﺎ ﻣﺟﺎل اﻟﺗزاﯾد اﻟﺳﻛﺎﻧﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌدﻻﺗﮫ اﻟراھﻧﺔ‪ ،‬ورﺳم‬
‫ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺎت ﻣن ﺷﺄﻧﮭﺎ ﻣواﺟﮭﺔ آﺛﺎر ﻣوﺟﺎت اﻟﺟﻔﺎف وﺗردي اﻟﻣواﺳم اﻟزراﻋﯾﺔ‪ .‬وﻛﻠﮫ ﯾﻧﺑﻐﻲ أن ﯾﺗراﻓق ﻣﻊ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺟﺔ ﺟدﯾﺔ ﻟواﻗﻊ‬
‫اﻟﻔﺳﺎد‪ ،‬اﻟذي ﯾدﻣر أﯾﺔ ﻣﺣﺎوﻻت وﻣﺑﺎدرات ﻣن أﺟل اﻟﺗﻧﻣﯾﺔ‪ ،‬واﻟﺗﻘدم ﻧﺣو ﺗﺣﻘﯾق اﻟﻣﺳﺎواة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‪ ،‬وﻻﺳﯾﻣﺎ ﻟﺟﮭﺔ ﺗوزﯾﻊ‬
‫اﻟدﺧل ﺑﺻورة ﻋﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬وھﻲ إﺟراءات ﻻﯾﻣﻛن أن ﺗﺗﺣﻘق ﻓﻲ ظل ﻏﯾﺎب اﻟﻣﺷﺎرﻛﺔ واﻟﺷﻔﺎﻓﯾﺔ واﻧﻌدام اﻟﺣرﯾﺎت واﻹﻋﻼﻣﯾﺔ‬
‫ﺧﺻوﺻﺎ ً‪ ،‬واﺳﺗﻣرار ﺳﯾطرة اﻟدوﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻣؤﺳﺳﺎت اﻹﻋﻼﻣﯾﺔ واﻻﺗﺻﺎﻻت‬
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Gmail - Policy Analysis: The Gap Separating Rich from Poor in Syria
٤ ‫ ﻣﻦ‬١ ‫ﺻﻔ ﺤﺔ‬
Dr. Samer Kantakji <[email protected]>
Policy Analysis: The Gap Separating Rich from Poor in
Syria
SRCC <[email protected]>
To: [email protected]
Mon, Aug 8, 2011 at 5:35 PM
Policy Analysis
Syria and Arab Countries:
A General Comparison of the State of Poverty
8 August 2011
Poverty, simply defined, is an inability to secure basic human needs, in particular food,
water, clothing and shelter - necessities without which ordinary life cannot continue.
However, there are other aspects of poverty which are no less significant. These
include the loss of human dignity and the inability to participate effectively and proactively in public life in a political, economic, social and cultural sense. Moreover,
poverty turns its victims into frustrated jobless citizens that can easily be mobilized
under certain political, social and economic circumstances. Such spontaneous
mobilization is like an explosion of a ticking time bomb causing a great deal of harm to
society and state.
In analysing poverty levels across Arab countries, one can observe varying degrees of
complexity and causes which is reflected in the present political, economic and social
realities of Arab states. It can be said that poverty is a current issue within every Arab
country and is a common theme in discussions of the Arab spring. There are however
certain dissimilarities, as a result of which these countries can be grouped into three
levels in terms of their relationship with poverty.
The first group of countries are those stricken by extreme poverty, within which the
proportion of poor people exceeds half of the population. Among this group are
countries such as Somalia, Palestine and Yemen where a majority of the population
suffer from poverty, many of them even fall within the classification of extreme
poverty. The social, economical and political deterioration in those states can be visible
with deep-rroted ramifications.
The second category includes countries such as Egypt, Syria and Jordan. The
proportion of poor people within their populations totals around forty per cent, around
half of whom are living in extreme poverty levels. The various implications of the
poverty indicators are clear within these countries and comprise a major factor leading
to the Arab spring in 2011.
The third category of poverty within the Arab states comprises resource-rich countries
such as Algeria and Iraq. There are poverty-stricken classes living within these
countries, some of them destitute, the proportion rises as high as twenty per cent of
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Gmail - Policy Analysis: The Gap Separating Rich from Poor in Syria
٤ ‫ ﻣﻦ‬٢ ‫ﺻﻔﺤﺔ‬
the population. There are clear indications within these countries of the existence of
poverty.
In general terms, the causes of poverty in Arab states can be classified into external
and internal factors. The primary external cause is the geo-political environment
within which the Arab states' international relations are conducted, in particular with
regards to the economy and finance. Although the external factor is not detrimental on
its own, as seen with rise of southeast Asian countries, it is more focused on political
and economic ability and intelligence of states to make international and regional
financial decisions. Most Arab countries have a corrupt authoritarian regime that
deems it incapable of making foreign relations decisions that impact their societies
positively. With regards to internal causes, the most significant are the imbalanced
policies pursued by Arab governments in the fields of economic development added to
extreme levels of corruption. This includes their bias in favour of the rich at the
expense of the poor, the lowering rates of development, the growth of unemployment,
and the rising rate of inflation, which robs income of its purchasing power. Among the
internal reasons are primarily political and financial corruption, lack of transparency
and the inability to enforce laws and regulations fairly.
The effects of these policies lead not only to the perpetuation of poverty, but more to
its escalation and deepening roots over time. According to some estimates, huge
increases in population may result in a doubling of poverty within Arab countries over
the coming two decades, unless fundamental political and economic reforms are
undertaken by these states. A serious shift in policies is required in order to involve
civil society with the state in a comprehensive multi-layered approach to development
that aims at achieving high growth rates of around ten per cent, a fair and equitable
distribution of income along side with the rooting out of corruption.
Although Syria suffers from similar features of deep-rooted poverty as other Arab
states such as Egypt and Jordan, Syria differs from them in certain important aspects,
including the following:
l
l
l
l
The population growth rate in Syria is higher than other countries of the same
group. In fact, it has one of the highest population growth rates in the Arab
world of 2.5%. This is likely to continue in the foreseeable future.
The wide-spread phenomenon of a shadow economy stands out in Syria against
other Arab states. This is a system based on the illegal and illegitimate principles
of tax evasion, smuggling, bribery, corruption and so on, the proceeds of which
exceed hundreds of billions of Syrian pounds. Syria endures a level of corruption
which is among the highest in the Arab world according to the Freedom House
and Transparency Institute. This corruption involves the various levels of the
executive body, judiciary, legislative, the military and the Ba’th Party.
Syria is suffering more than other Arab countries from crises resulting from
drought and lack of rainfall. This has a negative impact on its agriculture and
livestock, both of which are among its basic resources. It also has a negative
impact on the population, as large numbers of people are forced into internal
and external migration.
Syria also has the Arab world's lowest levels of media transparency, as authority
continues to have a strong presence, particularly in the section of the media
under government control. This furthers the lack of transparency in information
being available equally and fairly to the general population.
Naturally, the presence of these factors within the Syrian economy renders the country
more susceptible than others to an escalation of the phenomenon of poverty. Given the
increasing levels of corruption and lack of the rule of law, poverty is expected to
further deepen and escalate especially with the high rate of population increase and
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‫ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ‪ ٣‬ﻣﻦ ‪٤‬‬
‫‪Gmail - Policy Analysis: The Gap Separating Rich from Poor in Syria‬‬
‫‪the lack of sustainable development policies.‬‬
‫‪The looming dangers of poverty in the Arab world have been a common theme in the‬‬
‫‪Arab spring revolutions. As a future transitional phase is within reach in Syria, policy‬‬
‫‪makers should think of a serious shift in economic development policies that go‬‬
‫‪beyond cosmetic reforms implemented in the previous era. This would require a‬‬
‫‪collaborative effort of state institutions with civil society groups to develop a strategy‬‬
‫‪for the coming period that deals with combating corruption, implementing sustainable‬‬
‫‪development programs that include economic as well as human development aspects,‬‬
‫‪and tackle the issue of poverty and unemployment. Other policies that should be‬‬
‫‪looked at include the effects of the waves of drought and the decline in the agricultural‬‬
‫‪seasons. These measures cannot be realised in the absence of participation,‬‬
‫‪transparency, a democratic system, and most importantly under the lack of media‬‬
‫‪freedoms.‬‬
‫ﺳورﯾﺔ واﻟﺑﻠدان اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ؛ ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻔﻘر‬
‫‪ ٨‬آب‪/‬أﻏﺳطس ‪٢٠١١‬‬
‫ﯾﻌﺗﺑر اﻟﻔﻘر ﻓﻲ أﺳﺎﺳﮫ ﻋﺟز ﻋن ﺗﺄﻣﯾن اﻻﺣﺗﯾﺎﺟﺎت اﻹﺳﺎﺳﯾﺔ ﻟﻺﻧﺳﺎن‪ ،‬وﻻﺳﯾﻣﺎ اﻟﻐذاء واﻟﻣﺎء واﻟﻠﺑﺎس واﻟﺳﻛن‪ ،‬وھﻲ‬
‫اﺣﺗﯾﺎﺟﺎت ﻻﯾﻣﻛن ان ﺗﺳﺗﻣر اﻟﺣﯾﺎة ﺑﺻورة طﺑﯾﻌﯾﺔ ﺑدوﻧﮭﺎ‪ .‬ﻏﯾر أن اﻟﻔﻘر ﯾﺗﺿﻣن ﻣﺣﺗوﯾﺎت أﺧرى‪ ،‬ﻻﺗﻘل أھﻣﯾﺔ ﻋن‬
‫اﻟﻣﺣﺗوﯾﺎت اﻟﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪ ،‬إذ ﺑﯾن ﻣﺣﺗوﯾﺎﺗﮫ ھدر اﻟﻛراﻣﺔ اﻹﻧﺳﺎﻧﯾﺔ‪ ،‬واﻟﻌﺟز ﻋن اﻟﻣﺷﺎرﻛﺔ اﻟﻔﺎﻋﻠﺔ واﻟﻧﺎﺷطﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺣﯾﺎة اﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺟواﻧﺑﮭﺎ اﻟﺳﯾﺎﺳﯾﺔ واﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ واﻻﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﯾﺔ واﻟﺛﻘﺎﻓﯾﺔ‪ ،‬وھو إﻟﻰ ﻣﺎ ﺳﺑق‪ ،‬ﯾﺟﻌل ﻣن اﻟﻔﻘراء ﻗﻧﺎﺑل ﻣوﻗوﺗﺔ‪ ،‬ﯾﻣﻛن أن ﺗﻧﻔﺟر ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺳﯾﺎق ظواھر ﺳﯾﺎﺳﯾﺔ واﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﯾﺔ واﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ‪ .‬وﺑﺎﻧﻔﺟﺎرھﺎ ﯾﻣﻛن أن ﺗﻠﺣق اﻟﻛﺛﯾر ﻣن اﻷﺿرار اﻟﻔﺎدﺣﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ واﻟدوﻟﺔ‬
‫وﺑﺎﻹﺳﺗﻧﺎد إﻟﻰ ﻣﺣﺗوﯾﺎت اﻟﻔﻘر اﻟﺗﻲ ﯾُﻣﻛن أن ﺗﺗﺿﻣن ﻣﺳﺗوﯾﺎت ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻧﮫ ﻣﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ اﻟوﻗﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﺳﯾﺎﺳﯾﺔ واﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ‬
‫واﻻﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﯾﺔ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺑﻠدان اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﮫ ﯾﻣﻛن اﻟﻘول أن اﻟﻔﻘر ﯾُﻣ َﺛل ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺣﺎﺿرة ﻓﻲ ﻛل اﻟدول اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ وﺟود‬
‫ﺗﻣﺎﯾزات ﺗﺟﻌل ﺗﻠك اﻟﺑﻠدان ﺗﻧدرج ﻓﻲ ﺛﻼث ﻣﺳﺗوﯾﺎت ﻟﺟﮭﺔ ﻋﻼﻗﺗﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻘر‬
‫أول ھذه اﻟﻣﺳﺗوﯾﺎت‪ ،‬ﺗﻣﺛﻠﮫ اﻟﺑﻠدان ﺷدﯾدة اﻟﻔﻘر‪ ،‬واﻟﺗﻲ ﺗزﯾد ﻧﺳﺑﺔ اﻟﻔﻘراء ﻣن ﺳﻛﺎﻧﮭﺎ ﻋن ﻧﺻف اﻟﺳﻛﺎن‪ ،‬وﺗﻧدرج ﻓﻲ ﻋدادھﺎ‬
‫ﺑﻠدان ﻣﻧﮭﺎ اﻟﺻوﻣﺎل وﻓﻠﺳطﯾن واﻟﯾﻣن‪ ،‬اﻟﺗﻲ ﯾﻌﺎﻧﻲ أﻏﻠب اﻟﺳﻛﺎن ﻓﯾﮭﺎ ﻣن اﻟﻔﻘر‪ ،‬وﻗﺳم ﻛﺑﯾر ﻣﻧﮭم ﯾﻌﺎﻧﻲ ﻣن اﻟﻔﻘر اﻟﺷدﯾد‪،‬‬
‫وﻛﻼھﻣﺎ ﺗراﻓﻘﮫ ﺗردﯾﺎت ﻣﺗﻌددة‪ ،‬ذات ﺗﻌﺎﺑﯾر ﻣﻌﻠﻧﺔ‬
‫واﻟﻣﺳﺗوى اﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﺗﻧدرج ﻓﻲ ﺗﻌداده ﺑﻠدان ﺑﯾﻧﮭﺎ ﻣﺻر وﺳورﯾﺔ واﻷردن‪ ،‬وﺗﺻل ﻧﺳﺑﺔ اﻟﻔﻘر ﺑﯾن ﺳﻛﺎﻧﮫ إﻟﻰ ﻧﺣو أرﺑﻌﯾن‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺎﺋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻧﺻﻔﮭم ﻓﻲ ﻣﺳﺗوى اﻟﻔﻘر اﻟﺷدﯾد‪ .‬وﻣؤﺷرات اﻟﻔﻘر ﻓﻲ ھذه اﻟﺑﻠدان واﺿﺣﺔ ﻓﻲ دﻻﻻﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬واﻷزﻣﺎت اﻟﻣرﺗﺑطﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻘر ظﺎھرة وﻣﻌﻠﻧﺔ‬
‫وﯾﺗﺿﻣن اﻟﻣﺳﺗوى اﻟﺛﺎﻟث ﻣن ﺑﻠدان اﻟﻔﻘر اﻟﻌرﺑﻲ‪ ،‬ﺑﻠداﻧﺎ ً ﻏﻧﯾﺔ ﻣﺛل اﻟﺟزاﺋر واﻟﻌراق‪ ،‬اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﻌﯾش ﻓﯾﮭﺎ ﻓﺋﺎت ﻓﻘﯾرة‪ ،‬وﺑﻌﺿﮭﺎ‬
‫ﻓﺋﺎت ﻣﻌدﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﯾﻣﻛن أن ﺗﺻل ﻧﺳﺑﺗﮭﺎ ﻣن اﻟﺳﻛﺎن إﻟﻰ ﺣدود اﻟﻌﺷرﯾن ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺎﺋﺔ‪ ،‬وﺛﻣﺔ ﻣؤﺷرات واﺿﺣﺔ ﻓﯾﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ وﺟود اﻟﻔﻘر‬
‫وﺑﺻورة ﻋﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈن أﺳﺑﺎب اﻟﻔﻘر ﻓﻲ اﻟﺑﻠدان اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ ﺗﺗوزع ﻣﺎﺑﯾن أﺳﺑﺎب ﺧﺎرﺟﯾﺔ وأﺧرى داﺧﻠﯾﺔ‪ .‬واﻷھم ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﺑﺎب‬
‫اﻟﺧﺎرﺟﯾﺔ اﻟﺑﯾﺋﺔ اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺟري داﺧﻠﮭﺎ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت اﻟدوﻟﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﺑﻠدان اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ‪ ،‬وﻻﺳﯾﻣﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺟﺎﻧﺑﯾن اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدي واﻟﻣﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺣﯾث ﺗﺣظﻰ‬
‫اﻟدول اﻷﻏﻧﻰ واﻷﻗوى ﺑﻣﯾ ﱢزات ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺳﺎب اﻟدول اﻷﻗل ﻏﻧﻰ وﻗوة وﻛل اﻟدول اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ ﺗﻧدرج ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻣﺔ اﻟﺛﺎﻧﯾﺔ‪ .‬أﻣﺎ اﻷھم‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﺑﺎب اﻟداﺧﻠﯾﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺄﺳﺎﺳ ُﮫ اﻟﺳﯾﺎﺳﺎت ﻏﯾر اﻟﻣﺗوازﻧﺔ اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﻧﺗﮭﺟﮭﺎ اﻟﺣﻛوﻣﺎت اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﯾﺎدﯾن اﻟﺗﻧﻣﯾﺔ اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ ﻟﺟﮭﺔ‬
‫ﻣﯾﻠﮭﺎ ﻟﺻﺎﻟﺢ اﻟﻔﺋﺎت اﻷﻏﻧﻰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺳﺎب اﻟﻔﺋﺎت اﻟﻔﻘﯾرة‪ ،‬واﻧﺧﻔﺎض ﻣﻌدﻻت اﻟﺗﻧﻣﯾﺔ وﺗﻧﺎﻣﻲ اﻟﺑطﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬وارﺗﻔﺎع ﻣﻌدﻻت اﻟﺗﺿﺧم‬
‫اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺟﻌل اﻟﻣداﺧﯾل ﺗﻔﻘد ﻗدرﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﺷراﺋﯾﺔ‬
‫وﺗؤدي ھذه اﻟﺳﯾﺎﺳﺎت وﻧﺗﺎﺋﺟﮭﺎ‪ ،‬ﻟﯾس إﻟﻰ اﺳﺗﻣرار اﻟﻔﻘر ﻓﺣﺳب ﺑل إﻟﻰ ﻣﻔﺎﻗﻣﺗﮫ ﻣﻊ اﻟوﻗت‪ .‬وطﺑﻘﺎ ً ﻟﺗﻘدﯾرات اﻟﺧﺑراء ﻓﺈن‬
‫اﻟﻔﻘر ﯾﻣﻛن أن ﯾﺗﺿﺎﻋف ﻓﻲ اﻟﺑﻠدان اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻌﻘدﯾن اﻟﻘﺎدﻣﯾن ﻣﻊ اﻟزﯾﺎدة اﻟﮭﺎﺋﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺳﻛﺎن ﻣﺎ ﻟم ﺗﺣﺻل إﺻﻼﺣﺎت‬
‫ﺟوھرﯾﺔ ﻣن اﻟﻧﺎﺣﯾﺗﯾن اﻟﺳﯾﺎﺳﯾﺔ واﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺑﻠدان اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗؤدي إﻟﻰ اﺷراك اﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ اﻟﻣدﻧﻲ إﻟﻰ ﺟﺎﻧب اﻟدوﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫إﺣداث طﻔرات ﺗﻧﻣوﯾﺔ ذات ﻣﻌدﻻت ﻧﻣو ﻋﺎﻟﯾﺔ ﺗﻘﺎرب اﻟﻌﺷرة ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺎﺋﺔ‪ ،‬وﺗوزﯾﻊ ﻋﺎدل ﻟﻠدﺧل‪ ،‬وﻣواﺟﮭﺔ ﺟذرﯾﺔ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻔﺳﺎد‬
‫إن ﺳورﯾﺔ ‪-‬ﺑﺻﻔﺗﮭﺎ واﺣدة ﻣن اﻟدول اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ‪ -‬ﺗﻧطﺑق ﻋﻠﯾﮭﺎ اﻟﻣﻼﻣﺢ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻔﻘر ﻓﻲ اﻟﺑﻠدان اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ‪ ،‬وﻻﺳﯾﻣﺎ‬
‫ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ اﻟﺑﻠدان اﻟﻣﺻﻧﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻣﺳﺗوى اﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﻣﺛل ﻣﺻر واﻷردن‪ ،‬اﻟﺗﻲ ھﻲ ﺑﻠدان ﻣﺣدودة ﻓﻲ ﻣواردھﺎ ﻣن ﺟﮭﺔ‪ ،‬وﻓﯾﮭﺎ‬
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‫ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ‪ ٤‬ﻣﻦ ‪٤‬‬
‫‪Gmail - Policy Analysis: The Gap Separating Rich from Poor in Syria‬‬
‫ﻣﺳﺗوﯾﺎت ﻣن اﻟﻔﻘر ﯾﻘﺎرب ﺗﻠك اﻟدول‪ ،‬ﻟﻛﻧﮭﺎ ﺗﺧﺗﻠف ﻋن ﺗﻠك اﻟدول ﻓﻲ ﺑﻌض ﻣن اﻟﻣﻌطﯾﺎت اﻷھم ﻓﯾﮭﺎ‬
‫أوﻻ ً ‪ -‬إن ﻣﻌدﻻت اﻟﻧﻣو اﻟﺳﻛﺎﻧﻲ ھو أﻋﻠﻰ ﻣن ﺑﻘﯾﺔ ﺑﻠدان اﻟﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑل ھو ﻣن أﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌدﻻت ﻧﻣو اﻟﺳﻛﺎن ﺑﯾن اﻟدول‬
‫اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﯾث ﺑﻠﻎ ‪ ٢،٥‬ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺎﺋﺔ‪ ،‬وھو ﻣرﺷﺢ ﻟﻼﺳﺗﻣرار ﻓﻲ اﻟﻣدى اﻟﻣﻧظور‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﯾﺎ ً ‪-‬إن ﺑﯾن أﺳﺑﺎب اﻟﻔﻘر ﻓﻲ ﺳورﯾﺔ ﺷﯾوع ظﺎھرة اﻗﺗﺻﺎد اﻟظل‪ ،‬وھو اﻗﺗﺻﺎد ﯾﻘوم ﻋﻠﻰ أ ُﺳس ﻏﯾر ﻗﺎﻧوﻧﯾﺔ وأﺧرى ﻏﯾر‬
‫ﻣﺷروﻋﺔ‪ ،‬وﻣﻧﮭﺎ اﻟﺗﮭرب اﻟﺿرﯾﺑﻲ واﻟﺗﮭرﯾب واﻟرﺷﺎوي واﻟﻔﺳﺎد وﻏﯾرھﺎ ﻣن أﻧﺷطﺔ ﺗﺗﺟﺎوز أﻣواﻟﮭﺎ ﻣﺋﺎت ﻣﻠﯾﺎرات اﻟﻠﯾرات‬
‫اﻟﺳورﯾﺔ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻟﺛﺎ ً ‪ -‬إن ﺳورﯾﺔ ﺗﻌﺎﻧﻲ أﻛﺛر ﻣن ﺑﻘﯾﺔ اﻟدول اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ اﻷﺧرى ﻣن اﻷزﻣﺎت اﻟﻧﺎﺗﺟﺔ ﻋن اﻟﺟﻔﺎف واﻧﺣﺑﺎس اﻷﻣطﺎر‪ ،‬ﻣﻣﺎ‬
‫ﯾﻧﻌﻛس ﺳﻠﺑﺎ ً ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣواﺳﻣﮭﺎ اﻟزراﻋﯾﺔ وﺛروﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﺣﯾواﻧﯾﺔ‪ ،‬وﻛﻼھﻣﺎ ﺑﯾن ﻣواردھﺎ اﻷﺳﺎﺳﯾﺔ‪ .‬ﻛﻣﺎ ﺗﻧﻌﻛس ﺳﻠﺑﺎ ً ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻛﺎﻧﮭﺎ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﺗدﻓﻊ أﻋداد ﻛﺑﯾرة ﻣﻧﮭم إﻟﻰ ھﺟرة داﺧﻠﯾﺔ وﺧﺎرﺟﯾﺔ‬
‫راﺑﻌﺎ ً ‪ -‬إن ﺳورﯾﺔ ﺗﻌﺎﻧﻲ ﻣن ﻣﺳﺗوى ﻓﺳﺎد ھو ﺑﯾن اﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺳﺗوﯾﺎت اﻟﻔﺳﺎد ﺑﯾن اﻟﺑﻠدان اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ‪ ،‬وإن ھذا اﻟﻔﺳﺎد ﯾﺷﻣل‬
‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗوﯾﺎت اﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺟﮭزة اﻹدارﯾﺔ اﻟﺗﻧﻔﯾذﯾﺔ إﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ اﻟﺟﮭﺎز اﻟﻘﺿﺎﺋﻲ‬
‫ﺧﺎﻣﺳﺎ ً ‪ -‬ﻛﻣﺎ أن ﺳورﯾﺔ أﻗل اﻟﺑﻠدان اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺳﺗوﯾﺎت اﻟﺷﻔﺎﻓﯾﺔ اﻹﻋﻼﻣﯾﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﯾث ﻣﺎزاﻟت اﻟﺳﻠطﺔ ﺣﺎﺿرة ﺑﻘوة وﻻﺳﯾﻣﺎ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻣﯾدان اﻹﻋﻼم اﻟﻣﺣﻛوم ﺑﺎﻟﺳﯾطرة اﻟﺣﻛوﻣﯾﺔ‬
‫وﺑطﺑﯾﻌﺔ اﻟﺣﺎل‪ ،‬ﻓﺈن ﺣﺿور ھذه اﻟﻣﻌطﯾﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟواﻗﻊ اﻟﺳوري ﯾﺟﻌل ﻣن ﺳورﯾﺔ أﻛﺛر ﻣن ﻏﯾرھﺎ ﻋرﺿﺔ ﻟﻣﻔﺎﻗﻣﺔ ظﺎھرة‬
‫اﻟﻔﻘر‪ ،‬اﻷﻣر اﻟذي ﯾﻌﻧﻲ أﻧﮭﺎ ﯾﻣﻛن أن ﺗﻧﺗﻘل إﻟﻰ ﺑﻠدان اﻟﻣﺳﺗوى اﻷول ﻣن ﺑﻠدان اﻟﻔﻘر اﻟﻌرﺑﻲ ﻣﺛل اﻟﯾﻣن واﻟﺻوﻣﺎل‬
‫وﻓﻠﺳطﯾن‪ ،‬اﻟﺗﻲ ﯾرﺗﻔﻊ ﻓﯾﮭﺎ ﻣﺳﺗوى اﻟﻔﻘر إﻟﻰ ﻓوق اﻟﺧﻣﺳﯾن ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺎﺋﺔ ﻣن اﻟﺳﻛﺎن‬
‫إن اﻷﺧطﺎر اﻟﻣﺣﯾطﺔ ﺑﺎﻟواﻗﻊ اﻟﺳوري ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﻣﺎ ھو ﻋﻠﯾﮫ اﻟﺣﺎل ﻓﻲ اﻟﺑﻠدان اﻟﻌرﺑﯾﺔ اﻷﺧرى‪ ،‬ﻛﺎن أھم ﻣﺑررات اﻟﺛورة‬
‫اﻟﺳورﯾﺔ ﺑﻌد ﻓﺷل اﻟﺳﯾﺎﺳﺎت اﻟﺣﻛوﻣﯾﺔ ﻣن إﺟراء أي ﺗﺣﺳن ﻓﻲ ﻣﺳﺗوى اﻟﻔﻘر ﺑل وزادت ﻣن ﺗﻔﺎﻗﻣﮫ وﺗﻌﻘد ﻣﺷﻛﻼﺗﮫ‪ .‬إن‬
‫اﻟﻣطﻠوب ﻓﻲ ﺳورﯾﺔ ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺎت أﻛﺛر ﺟذرﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺗﺻدي ﻟﻣﺷﻛﻠﺔ اﻟﻔﻘر؛ ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺎت ﺗﺷﺗرك ﻓﯾﮭﺎ اﻟدوﻟﺔ واﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ اﻟﻣدﻧﻲ ﺑﺻورة‬
‫ﻣﺷﺗرﻛﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘوم ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣواﺟﮭﺔ ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺗﻠك اﻟﺧﺻوﺻﯾﺎت‪ ،‬وﻻﺳﯾﻣﺎ ﻣﺟﺎل اﻟﺗزاﯾد اﻟﺳﻛﺎﻧﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌدﻻﺗﮫ اﻟراھﻧﺔ‪ ،‬ورﺳم‬
‫ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺎت ﻣن ﺷﺄﻧﮭﺎ ﻣواﺟﮭﺔ آﺛﺎر ﻣوﺟﺎت اﻟﺟﻔﺎف وﺗردي اﻟﻣواﺳم اﻟزراﻋﯾﺔ‪ .‬وﻛﻠﮫ ﯾﻧﺑﻐﻲ أن ﯾﺗراﻓق ﻣﻊ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺟﺔ ﺟدﯾﺔ ﻟواﻗﻊ‬
‫اﻟﻔﺳﺎد‪ ،‬اﻟذي ﯾدﻣر أﯾﺔ ﻣﺣﺎوﻻت وﻣﺑﺎدرات ﻣن أﺟل اﻟﺗﻧﻣﯾﺔ‪ ،‬واﻟﺗﻘدم ﻧﺣو ﺗﺣﻘﯾق اﻟﻣﺳﺎواة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‪ ،‬وﻻﺳﯾﻣﺎ ﻟﺟﮭﺔ ﺗوزﯾﻊ‬
‫اﻟدﺧل ﺑﺻورة ﻋﺎدﻟﺔ‪ ،‬وھﻲ إﺟراءات ﻻﯾﻣﻛن أن ﺗﺗﺣﻘق ﻓﻲ ظل ﻏﯾﺎب اﻟﻣﺷﺎرﻛﺔ واﻟﺷﻔﺎﻓﯾﺔ واﻧﻌدام اﻟﺣرﯾﺎت واﻹﻋﻼﻣﯾﺔ‬
‫ﺧﺻوﺻﺎ ً‪ ،‬واﺳﺗﻣرار ﺳﯾطرة اﻟدوﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻣؤﺳﺳﺎت اﻹﻋﻼﻣﯾﺔ واﻻﺗﺻﺎﻻت‬
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