اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth in Middle East and North Africa د .ﻣﺠﺪي اﻟﺸﻮرﺑﺠﻲ 1 ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﻠﺹ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻌﺩﺩ 10 ﺩﻭل ﻤﻥ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺎﻡ 1995ﺤﺘﻰ ﻋﺎﻡ .2003ﻭﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻫﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺘﻤﺯﺝ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺒﻴﺎﻨـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻘـﺎﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﻀﻴﺔ .Dynamic Panel Data Modelsﻭﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻤــﺎﺫﺝ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺯﻭﻡ ) The Generalized Method of Moments (GMMﺍﻟﻤﻘـﺘﺭﺤﺔ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁــﺔ Arellano ).and Bond (1991 ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﺇﻟﻲ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ .ﻭﺘﺘﻠﺨﺹ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻷﻏﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﺒﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﺠﺘﺫﺍﺏ ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ .ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺃﻥ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل. ﻤﺼﻁﻠﺤﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ: ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ،ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ،ﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ .1ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻟﻘﺩ ﺤﻅﻲ ﺍﻷﺩﺏ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻲ ﺒﺎﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺕ ﺒﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ )) Foreign Direct Investment (FDIﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺸﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺘﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻵﻥ ﻓﺼﺎﻋﺩﹰﺍ ﺒﺎﻟﺤﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻹﻨﺠﻠﻴﺯﻴﺔ (FDIﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ )ﺍﻨﻅﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴـل ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎلDe Gregorio, 1992; Blomström et al., 1994; : 1ﻗﺴﻢ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد آﻠﻴﺔ اﻹدارة واﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻣﺼﺮ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮم واﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ 257 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ;Borensztein et al., 1995; Balasubramanyam et al., 1996; Olofsdotter, 1998 Bashir, 1999; De Mello, 1996; Nair-Reichert and Weinhold, 2000; Crakovic and ;Levine, 2002; Kumar and Pradhan, 2002; Bengoa and Sánchez-Robles, 2003 .(Chowdhury and Movrotas, 2003; Kang and Du, 2005 ﻭﻗﺩ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻜﻼﺴﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭ Neoclassical Models of Growth ) (Solow, 1956; Swan, 1956ﻭﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ Endogenous Growth Modelsﺃﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻁﻠﻕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ (Romer, 1986; Lucas, 1988) New Growth Modelsﺘﹸﺸﻜﱢل ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﻟﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ. ﻭﺒﺎﻹﻁﻼﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻨﺎﻭﻟﺕ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ FDIﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺘﻡ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ) Chowdhury :(and Mavrotas, 2003, p. 2ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ،ﻭﻤﺤﺩﺩﺍﺕ ، FDIﻭﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﺴﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻴﻔﺔ ،ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ FDIﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ .ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺩﺏ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ. ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻫﻭ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻌﺩﺩ 10ﺩﻭل ﻤﻥ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ 2003 – 1995 ،ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺘﻤﺯﺝ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻁﻠﻕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ .Dynamic Panel Data Modelsﻭﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺯﻭﻡ )The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺤﺯﻤﺔ ﺒﺭﺍﻤﺞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼــﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ .Stata Version 8.2ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘـﺔ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻗﺘﺭﺍﺤﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ) Arellano and Bond (1991ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻡ ﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻤﺘﺴﻘﺔ ﻭﻜﻔﺌﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ .ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺠﻬﺎ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ. ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺴﺘﺔ ﺃﺠﺯﺍﺀ ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ :ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻷﻭل ﻴﻀﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ .ﻭﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﻴﺘﻨﺎﻭل ﺍﻹﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ .ﻭﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ ﻴﺨﺘﺹ ﺒﻌﺭﺽ ﻤﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ .ﻭﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻊ ﻴﻬﺘﻡ ﺒﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺘﻬﺎ .ﻭﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ ﻴﺘﻡ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻋﺭﺽ ﻭﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ .ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ،ﻓﻔﻴﻪ ﻴﺘﻡ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﺨﺹ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﻼﺼﺔ ﻭﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﻷﻏﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ. 258 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 .2ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻘﺩ ﺤﻅﻴﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ FDIﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺒﺎﺕ .ﻭﻴﻬﺩﻑ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ،ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ ﻟﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ .ﻭﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﻴﻨﻘﺴﻡ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺩ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺒﻨﺩﻴﻥ ﻓﺭﻋﻴﻴﻥ :ﺃﻭﻟﻬﻤﺎ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ FDIﺒﺎﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ .ﻭﺜﺎﻨﻴﻬﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ FDIﺒﺎﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ. 1.2ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ FDIﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺸﺘﻘﺎﻗﻪ -ﻜﻤﺎ ﺴﺒﻕ ﺫﻜﺭﻩ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ -ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻴﻭﻜﻼﺴﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭ ﺃﻭ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ .ﻓﻔﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻴﻭﻜﻼﺴﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭ ﻴﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﻫﻤﺎ ) Arena, 2003, p. :(10ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻲ ﻭ/ﺃﻭ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ .ﻭﻫﺫﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﻴﻌﺎﻟﺠﺎ ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ،ﻭﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻡ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﻴﻥ ﺘﺘﺤﺩﺩ ﺒﻘﻴﻡ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﺨﺭﻱ ﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ .ﻭﻁﺒﻘ ﹰﺎ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭ ﻓﻘﻁ .ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴل ،ﻭﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ ﺍﻟﻐﻠﺔ ﻟﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ،ﻓﺈﻥ FDIﺴﻭﻑ ﻻ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻟﻪ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ .ﻭﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻥ FDIﺴﻭﻑ ﻻ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻟﻪ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺩﺍﺌﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ ﺍﻟﻐﻠﺔ ﻟﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ) .(Campos and Kinoshita, 2002, p. 400ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻲ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻟﻬﺎ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ. ﺃﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ ،ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻴﻨﻘﺴـﻡ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺃﺜﺭﻴﻥ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﻴﻥ ) Kumar and Pradhan, 2002, p. 5; Agiomirgianakis et al., :(2003 p. 4ﺃﻭﻟﻬﻤﺎ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﺏ ،ﻭﻴﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺃﻥ FDIﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ .ﻭﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺜـﺭ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺘﺤـﻘﻕ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗـﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ FDIﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤـــﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻼﻗـــﺔ ﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻁﺭﺩﻴـﺔ )ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤل .(Crowding-in Effectﻭﺜﺎﻨﻴﻬﻤﺎ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﺏ ،ﻭﻴﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺃﻥ FDI ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺼﺎﺤﺒﻪ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﻭﺠﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻴﻔﺔ. ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻴﻬﺩﻑ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﺜﺭﻴﻥ ،ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﱠﺩﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ .ﻭﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﻴﻨﻘﺴﻡ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺩ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﻓﺭﻋﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ :ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ،ﻭﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ 259 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ،ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﻷﺜﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﱠﺩﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ. 1.1.2ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻴﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻴﻔﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﺩﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ .ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﻻﺴﺘﻌﺎﻨﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ ) .(Kumar and Pradhan, 2002, pp. 6 - 7)(1ﻭﻴﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺘﻴﻥ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻴﻔﺔ :ﺃﻭﻟﻬﻤﺎ ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ .ﻭﺜﺎﻨﻴﻬﻤﺎ ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ. ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﻤل ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﻫﺎﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺘﻴﻥ ،ﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ )ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﺴﻴﺔ( ﺘﻌﻤل ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻓﻘﻁ. ﻗﺒل ﺩﺨﻭل ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺍﻟﻌﻤل ﻓـﻲ ﺼـﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟـﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴـﺔ ﻴﺘﺤﻘـﻕ ﺍﻟﺘـﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻴﻘﻁﻊ ﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴـﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠـﺔ ﻓـﻲ ﻤﺠـﺎل ﺼـﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟـﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴـﺔ )(FF ﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟـﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﺴـﻴﻁﺔ ) .(IIﻭﻤـﻥ ﺜـﻡ ﻴﺘﺤﻘـﻕ ﺸﺭﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ ، Bﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠـﺔ ﻓـﻲ ﻤﺠـﺎل ﺼـﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟـﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻫﻭ ، OI1ﻭﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠـﺔ ﻓـﻲ ﻤﺠـﺎل ﺼـﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟـﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴـﺔ ﻫـﻭ .OF1 ﻭﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺩﺨﻭل ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺍﻟﻌﻤل ﻓﻲ ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ،ﻓﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ،ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ )ﺃﺜﺭ ﻤﺯﺍﺤﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ( ﻤﻊ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ .ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ FFﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﻨﺘﻘل ﺇﻟﻲ ﺃﺴﻔل ﺇﻟﻲ .F1F1ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻫﻲ ، B1ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ OF1ﻭﻫﻭ ﺃﻗل ﻤﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻗﺒل ﺩﺨﻭل ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﻋﻤل ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ،ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻅل ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﺍﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻕ ﻟﻡ ﻴﺘﻐﻴﺭ. 260 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ ) :(1ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ F F3 F1 F1 F2 I I1 I3 O I2 = Iﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ = Fﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭKumar and Pradhan, 2002, p. 7 : ﻭﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺭﺩﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﻴﻥ )ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ( )ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺍﺒﻁ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻔﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ( ،ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻘل ﻋﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ .ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻤﺴﺎﻭﻴﺔ ﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ،ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻥ ﻴﺘﻐﻴﺭ .ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ IIﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﻨﺘﻘل ﺇﻟﻲ ﺃﺴﻔل ﺇﻟﻲ I1I1ﻭﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ،B1ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﺍﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻕ ﻭﻫﻭ .OI1 ﺃﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﺃﻗل ﻤﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ،ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﻘل .ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ IIﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﻨﺘﻘل ﺇﻟﻲ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻟﻲ .I2I2ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ، B2ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻫﻭ 261 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ) OI2ﻭﻫﻭ ﺃﻗل ﻤﻥ ، (OI1ﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻫﻭ ) OF2ﻭﻫﻭ ﺃﻗل ﻤﻥ .( OF1 ﻻﺤﻅ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ B1ﻻ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻟﻠﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﺤﺎل ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ .Bﻻﺤﻅ ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ ، B2ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ .ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻨﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻗﺎﻤﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﺒﺈﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺴﻠﻊ ﺨﺼﻴﺼ ﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺒﺈﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺴﻠﻊ ﺘﺤل ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺓ ،ﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ FFﻟﻥ ﻴﻨﺘﻘل )ﺃﻱ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻤﺯﺍﺤﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ( .ﻭﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ .B3 ﻻﺤﻅ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺍﺒﻁ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻨﺸﺄ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ) OI3ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﻤﻥ OI1ﺃﻭ OI2ﺃﻭ OF3ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﻤﻥ OF1ﺃﻭ OF1ﺃﻭ .(OF2ﻭﻴﻌﻨﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻟﻠﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻴﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﺯﺍﺤﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ .ﻭﺒﻌﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﺃﺨﺭﻱ ،ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻟﻠﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻴﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ )ﺍﹸﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤل .(Crowding-in Effect ﻭﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻤﺎ ﺴﺒﻕ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﻋﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﺴﻠﻊ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﺴﻠﻊ ﺨﺼﻴﺼﹰﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﺴﻠﻊ ﺘﺤل ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻁﻠﺏ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻘل ﻋﻨﻬﺎ. 2.1.2ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻴﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻴﻔﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺼﺎﺤﺏ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﻭﺠﺒﺔ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺼﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﻤل ﻭﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل .ﻭﺘﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺼﺎﺤﺏ FDIﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺃﺭﺒﻌﺔ ﻗﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﻫﻲ) Bjorvatn et al., 2001, pp. 6 – 8; Lensink and Morrissey, 2001, p. :(4; Blomström and Kokko, 1996, pp. 12 - 15 .1 ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺘﺭﻜﺯ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺩﺨﻭل ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻴﻔﺔ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ،ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺩﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺎ 262 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺒﺄﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺙ ﻗﺎﻋﺩﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺔ ﻁﺒﻘ ﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﺒﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﻟﻬﺎ. .2 ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺭﻴﺏ ﺘﻨﺸﺄ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺭﻴﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺇﺩﺨﺎل ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻴﻔﺔ ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺙ ﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺡ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل .ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻁﻭﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺎ ﻟﻠﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ﻻ ﻴﺘﺄﺘﻰ ﺇﻻ ﻤﻊ ﺘﻭﺍﺠﺩ ﻗﻭﻱ ﻋﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻤﺩﺭﺒﺔ ﻭﻤﺅﻫﻠﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜل ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺠﻌﻠﻬﺎ ﻗﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺎ .ﺇﻥ ﺩﺨﻭل ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻴﻔﺔ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺘﺩﺭﻴﺏ ﻭﺘﺄﻫﻴل ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﺨﻠﻕ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻓﺯ ﻟﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺘﺩﺭﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ،ﻭﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺭﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺅﻫﻠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻱ. .3 ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﻜﺭﺓ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻴﻔﺔ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻗﻴﺎﻤﻬﺎ ﺒﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﺘﻘﺩﻤﹰﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺭﻜـﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل . .4 ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺍﺒﻁ ﺘﺭﻜﺯ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺍﺒﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ FDIﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻟﻠﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻴﻔﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺍﺒﻁ ﺍﻷﻤﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﻠﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺤﺩﺙ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ .ﻓﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺭﻭﺍﺒﻁ ﺍﻷﻤﺎﻤﻴﺔ ،ﻓﺘﻨﺸﺄ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺀ .ﻭﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺍﺒﻁ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ .ﻓﺎﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﺎﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﺒﺎﻟﻘﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺘﻬﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﻭﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ، ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ .ﻭﺘﺸﺠﻊ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺇﻨﻔﺎﻗﻬﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ،ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻲ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ .ﻭﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ. ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺍﺒﻁ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻔﻴﺔ ،ﻓﺘﻨﺸﺄ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ. ﻭﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺍﺒﻁ ﺇﻟﻲ ﻨﻘل ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺤﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺭﺩﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﻴﻥ ) ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ(. ﻓﺎﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ )ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻱ( ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ )ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺌﻊ( ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﻟﺘﺸﻤل ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﺭﺍﻤﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺭﻴﺏ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل 263 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥ ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ،ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ. ﻭﺘﺄﺨﺫ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﺒﺔ -ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻟﻬﺎ ﻨﻘل ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺎ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ -FDIﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻜﺎل ﻫﻲ :ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ،ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ،ﻭﺘﺭﺍﻜﻡ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ]ﺍﻨﻅﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ ) .[(1ﻁﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ،ﻓﺈﻥ ﺃﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺼﺎﺤﺏ FDIﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺨﻠﻕ ﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻴﻔﺔ ،ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺘﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻬﻡ ،ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ .ﻭﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥ ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﻭﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻱ ،ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ. ﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ ) :(1ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺘﺭﺍﻜﻡ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻲ إﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻹﻧﺘﺎج اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺗﺤﺴﻴﻦ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎت ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ وإﻧﺘﺎج ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎت ﺟﺪﻳﺪة ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭAsia Research Centre, 2001, p. 14 : 3.1.2ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﱠﺩﻡ ﻴﺨﺘﺹ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﻌﺭﺽ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ ﺒﺴﻴﻁ ﻴﻭﻀﺢ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ )ﺍﻨﻅﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔBorensztein et al., : 264 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 – 1995, pp. 4 – 9; Bashir, 1999, pp. 1 – 3; Lensink and Morrissey, 2001, pp. 7 .(9ﻭﻴﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻲ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻘﻪ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺘﺸﻜﻴﻼﺕ )ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ( ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ) ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻤﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻲ .(Capital Deepeningﻭﻴﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺃﻴﻀ ﹰﺎ ﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻜل ﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ .ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﻴﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﻫﻡ :ﻤﻨﺘﺠﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺫﻴﻥ ﻴﻘﻭﻤﻭﻥ ﺒﺘﺄﺠﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ،ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﺭﻋﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻥ ﻴﻘﻭﻤﻭﻥ ﺒﺈﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ،ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻭﻥ .ﻭﻴﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻤﻨﺘﺠﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺘﺄﺨﺫ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ: N Yi = AHi1-α ∑ Kα ; 0 p α f 1 j =1 ij )(1 ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ : = iﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ = jﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ = Yﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ = Aﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ .ﻭﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻟﺘﺤﺴﻥ ﻨﻭﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﻋﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻤﻊ ﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﻜﻤﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ. = Hﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ = Kﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﻱ = Nﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺸﻜﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ. ﻭﻴﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﺃﻥ Nﻴﺘﻡ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻪ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﻌ ﹰﺎ .ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈﻥ: *N = n + n )(2 ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ : = nﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻜﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ * = nﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻜﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﺎﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺘﻘل ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻜل ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ،ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ ) (1ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻜﺘﺎﺒﺘﻬﺎ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ: Yi = AHi1-α NKiα )(3 ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ) Nﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺸﻜل ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻜﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ( ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ. ﻭﻨﻅﺭﹰﺍ ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﻤﻨﺘﺠﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻴﺘﺤﺩﺩ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺴﻌﺭ ﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ) :( P j 265 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ∂Yi / ∂ij = A α Hi1−α Kijα −1 = Pj )(4 ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ j ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ) Kij = Hi (α A / Pj )1/(1−α )(5 ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺇﻟﻲ i ﻴﺘﺤﺩﺩ ﻁﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ: Kij ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻓﻘﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ . P ﻭﻨﻅﺭﹰﺍ ﻷﻥ K = K j ∑ ،ﺤﻴﺙ j i ij j Kﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻭﺒﺔ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﻴﻥ ،ﻓﺈﻥ: ) K j = H (α A / Pj )1/(1−α )(6 ﻭﺒﺎﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ Kﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﺨﺘﺭﺍﻋﻬﺎ ﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ،ﻭﺃﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩ ]ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ) [(rﺜﺎﺒﺕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ) ، (sﻭﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ) ، (tﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﺭﺍﻉ ﻭﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ) [V (t ) ] ( jﻴﺘﺤﺩﺩ ﻭﻓﻘﹰﺎ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ: N V (t ) = ∑ ( Pj −1) K j e−rt j =1 )(7 ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺸﻴﺭ j Kﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺞ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ .ﻭﻁﺒﻘ ﹰﺎ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ،ﻓﺈﻥ ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻐﻁﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻘﻁ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ j )ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﺼﺤﻴﺢ( )ﺃﻱ.( P f 1 j Pﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻺﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺘﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﻁﻭﻴﻊ ﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺎ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﺘﻬﻴﺌﺔ ﻭﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻘﻭﻟﺔ ) .( Φﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻬﻴﺌﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ: ])* Φ = Φ [n *, ( N / N )(8 ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻵﺘﻲ: ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ Φﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﻭ * nﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻘل .ﺒﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ * nﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﻨﻘﺹ Φﻭﺍﻟﻌﻜﺱ ﺼﺤﻴﺢ ) .( ∂Φ / ∂ n* p 0ﻭﻴﻌﻨﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ Φﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﻭ FDIﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻘل .ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻴﻔﺔ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥ ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻜﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ. 266 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ Φﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺸﻜﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻲ ) ( Nﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺸﻜﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ) * ( N / N * )( Nﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻘل. ﺒﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ) * ( N / Nﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﻨﻘﺹ Φ ) .( ∂Φ / ∂ ( N / N *) p 0ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩ ﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺃﺭﺨﺹ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﺭﺍﻉ ﻭﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻜﺱ ﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ. ﻭﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻭﺘﻬﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻘﻭﻟﺔ ) ( Φﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺼﻴﺎﻨﺔ ﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﻴﺘﺤﻤﻠﻬﺎ ﻤﺎﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻜل ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ .ﻭﻴﻤﺎﺜل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺘﺸﻜﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﺴﺎﻭﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ ،ﻭﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﹸﻬﻠﻙ ﺘﻤﺎﻤﹰﺎ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺴﺒﻕ ﺫﻜﺭﻩ .ﻭﺒﺎﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ Steady stateﺤﻴﺙ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ) (rﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺜﺎﺒﺕ ،ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺞ ﻤﻥ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺘﺸﻜﻴﻠﺔ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﺤﺩﺩ ﺘﺒﻌﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ: Π(t ) = V (t ) −Φ )(9 ﻭﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺨﺘﺎﺭ Kﻟﺘﻌﻅﻴﻡ ) ، Π (tﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﹸﻌﻁﻲ Kﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ j j j ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ ) .(6ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ ) (6ﺇﻟﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩﻩ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻅﻴﻡ ﻫﻭ Pjﻭﺍﻟﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﺘﻌﻅﻴﻤﻪ ﻫﻭ ) −1) H .(α A / Pj )1/(1−α ﻭﻴﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﺤل ﺍﻷﻤﺜل ﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻅﻴﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻵﺘﻲ: . (P j Pj = P = 1/ α f 1 )(10 ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﻌﻭﻴﺽ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﺎﻭﻱ Pﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ ) (10ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ ) (6ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ j ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻭﺒﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻜل ﺘﺸﻜﻴﻠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ: ) K j = K = H ( A α 2 )1/(1−α )(11 ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﻌﻭﻴﺽ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﺎﻭﻱ Pﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ j ﺭﻗﻡ ) (10ﻭﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﺎﻭﻱ K j ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ )(11 ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ ) (7ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ: )(12 N ) V (t ) = H A1/(1−α ) (1−α )/ α .α 2 /(1−α ).∑ e−r (s −t j ﻭﺒﺎﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻠﺩﺨﻭل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺞ ،ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺤﺩﺙ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ V (t ) = Φ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ: 267 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 N ) Φ = H A1/(1−α ) (1−α )/ α .α 2 /(1−α ).∑ e−r (s −t )(13 j ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺸﺭﻁ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺃﻴﺔ ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﻴﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ: ) r = ( H / Φ) A1/(1−α ) (1−α )/ α .α 2 /(1−α )(14 ﻭﻹﺩﺨﺎل ﻋﻼﻗﺔ FDIﺒﺎﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺒﺎﻷﺨﺫ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺍﻷﺴﺭ. ﻓﺎﻷﺴﺭ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﺘﻌﻅﻴﻡ ﻤﻨﻔﻌﺘﻬﻡ ﻭﻓﻘﹰﺎ ﻟﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ: Θ ∞ U = ∑ (C −1)/(1−Θ).e− ρ t )(15 t ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ: = ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ C = Θﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻔﻀﻴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻴﻥ = ρﻤﻘﻠﻭﺏ ﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ ﺍﻹﺤﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻲ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻓﺘﺭﺘﻴﻥ ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺘﻴﻥ Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution ﻭﻓﻲ ﻅل ﻤﻌﺩل ﻋﺎﺌﺩ ﻤﻌﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ) ، ( rﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻷﻤﺜل ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ: ) gc = (1/ Θ).(r − ρ )(16 ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺸﻴﺭ gc ﺇﻟﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ .ﻻﺤﻅ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭ ﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭ ،ﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ) ( gﻴﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ) .( g c ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﹰﺍ ،ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻌﻭﻴﺽ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﺎﻭﻱ r ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ: )(17 ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ ) (14ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ ) (16ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ] g = (1/ Θ)[( H / Φ). A1/(1−α ) (1−α )/ α .α 2 /(1−α ) − ρ ﻭﺘﻭﻀﺢ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ: ﺇﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ) ( gﻴﺘﺤﺩﺩ ﺒﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺘﻔﻀﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻴﻥ ) ( Θ ، ρﻭﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ) .( Aﻓﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭ – ﻗﻴﻡ ﻀﺌﻴﻠﺔ ﻟﻜل ﻤﻥ ρ - Θ ،ﻭﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺎ ﺃﻓﻀل – ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤل - Aﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ . g ﺇﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻁﺭﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ FDIﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ g g ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﻭ FDIﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻘل .ﻭﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻜﺱ ﺼﺤﻴﺢ .ﻓﺎﻟﻨﻘﺹ ﻓﻲ Φ )ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ * ( n ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ،ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ . g 268 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻁﺭﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ H ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ g g ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﻭ H ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻜﺱ ﺼﺤﻴﺢ. ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻘل .ﻭﻴﻌﻨﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻁﺭﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠـﺏ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ) .( Hﻓﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ H g ﻭﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻴﻔﺔ ﻭﺨﻼﺼﺔ ﻤﺎ ﺴﺒﻕ ﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻁﺭﺩﻴﺔ )ﻤﻭﺠﺒﺔ( ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ) ( g ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﻭﻜل ﻤﻥ ، FDIﻭ H ،ﻭﺘﻔﺎﻋل FDIﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ H ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ 2.2ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻴﻀﻡ ﺍﻷﺩﺏ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻨﺎﻭﻟﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ FDIﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ .ﻭﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺇﻟﻲ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺘﻤﺎﺜﻠﺔ .ﻭﻴﻭﻀﺢ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )(1 ﺒﻤﻠﺤﻕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎل. ﻭﺘﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺓ ﺒﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ) Crakovic and Levine (2002ﻓﻲ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺭﻜﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺘﻤﺯﺝ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﻀﻴﺔ )ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ( ،ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺭﻜﺯﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺴﺎﻜﻨﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺕ ﺃﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ .ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻗﺩ ﻴﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﻤﺘﺤﻴﺯﺓ ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺘﺴﻘﺔ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﻋﺩﺓ ﻤﺸﺎﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻜل ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ .ﻓﺎﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ FDIﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻴﻤﻜﻨﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﻜﻭﻥ FDIﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ ﻴﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺃﻭ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ .ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎل ،ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻜل ﻤﻥ FDI ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ .ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ FDIﻭﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻴﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺍﻟﺤﺼــــﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺎﻤـﻼﺕ ﺍﻨﺤــــــﺩﺍﺭ ﻤﻘــــﺩﺭﺓ ﻤﺘﺤﻴﺯﺓ ).(Borensztein et al., 1995, pp. 15 – 16 ﻻﺤﻅ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﻌﺎﻟﺞ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻜل ﻭﻤﺸﺎﻜل ﺃﺨﺭﻱ ﺴﻴﺭﺩ ﺫﻜﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ. ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺘﻴﻥ Bashir (1999) :ﻭ)Hassan (2003 ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺘﻴﻥ ﺒﺩﻭل ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻵﺘﻲ: ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺭﻜﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻜﻴﺔ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ ،ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺭﻜﺯﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺘﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺴﺎﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ. 269 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﺒﻘﺔ ﻟﻡ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺃﺨﺫﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺘﻴﻥ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ :ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ. ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺩﺏ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ ﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ FDIﺒﺎﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ، ﻭﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻷﺩﺏ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﺒﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻱ .ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ،ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻲ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻟﻡ ﺘﹸﺴﺘﺨ ﺩﻡ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺘﻴﻥ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺘﻴﻥ ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل. .3ﻤﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﻤﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺃﺜﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ .ﻭﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﺎﺫﺝ ﻁﺒﻘ ﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﻷﺜﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻕ ﻋﺭﻀـﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺩ ﺭﻗﻡ .3.1.2 ﻭﺤﺘﻰ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻡ ﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻤﺘﺴﻘﺔ ﻭﻜﻔﺌﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺯﻭﻡ )The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺭﺤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ) .Arellano and Bond (1991ﻭﻟﻠﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﺴﻠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ. ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺩ ﻴﻨﻘﺴﻡ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﻓﺭﻋﻴﺔ :ﺃﻭﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﱠﺩﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ .ﻭﺜﺎﻨﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻲ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﱠﺩﻡ .ﻭﺜﺎﻟﺜﻬﺎ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﱠﺩﻡ. 1.3ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﱠﺩﻡ ﺤﺘﻰ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﻷﺜﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻴﹰﺎ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻜﺘﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ ) (17ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ: )( FDI * H ) + β H + β ′Z + U (18 it it git = a + β FDIit + β it 3 1 2 i = 1,......, N & t = 1,......,Ti ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ: 270 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 = iﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ = tﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ = Nﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ = Tﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻟﻜل ﺩﻭﻟﺔ i ) = ( FDI * Hﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﻔﺎﻋﻠﻲ ﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﺘﻔﺎﻋل FDIﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ H Z = ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ .ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻴﻁﻠﻕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻜﻤﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻀﺎﺒﻁﺔ ،ﻭﻫﻲ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﺤــﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺎﺕ ﺒﻴﺎﻨـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻘــﺎﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﻀﻴﺔ )ﺍﻨﻅـﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴـل ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎل: Barro and Sala-i- (Martin, 1995; Barro, 1996 ﻻ ﻭﺴﻁﻪ = Uﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﻗﻴﻤﻪ ،ﻭﺃﻨﻪ ﻴﺘﺒﻊ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻌﹰﺎ ﻤﻌﺘﺩ ﹰ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﻲ ﻴﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺼﻔﺭ ،ﻭﺘﺒﺎﻴﻨﻪ ﺜﺎﺒﺕ. ﻭﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﻷﺜﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ. 2.3ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻲ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﱠﺩﻡ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻲ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻁﺒﻘ ﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﻷﺜﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ . gﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ GMMﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻟﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺍﻴﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ :ﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﻤﺸﺎﻜل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻴﺯ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻋﻥ ﺇﻫﻤﺎل ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ،ﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ، Endogenity ﻭﺘﺠﻨﺏ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺠﺫﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺓ ،ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ ﻤﺒﻁﺄﺓ ).(Nkurunziza and Bates, 2003, p. 11 ﻭﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺃﺜﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ: )(19 ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ: git − git −1 = (a −1) git −1 + β ′ X it +ηi +U it = gﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ = ηﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﻴﻘﻴﺱ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻅﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ = Xﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ) ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ .( gﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺘﺘﺤﺩﺩ it −1 ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ ) (18ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ ﻁﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ 271 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ﻷﺜﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ gﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﱠﺩﻡ ﻓــﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﺴـــﺎﺒﻕ ﻋﺭﻀـــــﻪ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺴﺒﻕ ﺫﻜﺭﻩ ] , H it ) ، [ FDI , ( FDI * Hﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻲ ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺍﺕ gﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ: it it ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ) (OPENit • ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ) ( INVit • ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ) ( FSDit • ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﻔﺎﻋﻠﻲ ﻴﻌﺒﺭ ﺘﻔﺎﻋل FDIﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ [( FDI *OPEN )it ] OPEN • ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﻔﺎﻋﻠﻲ ﻴﻌﺒﺭ ﺘﻔﺎﻋل FDIﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ [( FDI * FSD)it ] FSD • • ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ) ( EFit • ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ) ( INFit • ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ) (GSit • ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ) ( POPGit • ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ) ( PRit ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻜﺘﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ ) (19ﻟﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ: git = a git −1 + β ′ X it +ηi +Uit )(20 ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻭﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺌﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻘﻴﺱ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻅﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ i ) (ηﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ ﻟﻘﻴﻡ i ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﻭﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄِ .ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺒﻌﺎﺩ ηi ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ .ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ ) (20ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ ﻟﻘﻴﻡ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ: git − g = a( g −g ) + β ′( X it − X ) + (Uit −U )) (21 it −1 it −1 it −2 it −1 it −1 ﻻﺤﻅ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ ﻟﻘﻴﻡ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ )(20 ﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺘﻴﻥ :ﺃﻭﻟﻬﻤﺎ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ) .( Xﻭﺜﺎﻨﻴﻬﻤﺎ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩ ) ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐـﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒـﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻁﺄ ) −g it −2 it −1 (U −Uﻭﺍﻟﻔﺭﻭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ ﻟﻘﻴﻡ it .( gﻭﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠــﺔ ﻫﺎﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺭﺡ Arellano and it −1 272 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ) Bond (1991ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻁﺄﺓ ﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺴـﺎﻋﺩﺓ ) Arena, .(2003, p. 17 ﻭﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺭﺍﻀــــﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ .1 :ﺃﻥ ﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﻁــﺄ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺘﺴﻠﺴﻠﻴﹰﺎ .2 .ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻀﻌﻴﻑ ،ﻓﺈﻥ GMMﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺸﺭﻭﻁ ﺍﻟﻌﺯﻭﻡ Moment Conditionsﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ):(Crakovic and Levine, 2002, pp. 5 - 6 )(22 E ⎡⎣ git − s *(U it −U it −1) ⎤⎦ = 0 for s ≥ 2; t = 3,...T )(23 E ⎡⎣ X it − s *(U it −U it −1) ⎤⎦ = 0 for s ≥ 2; t = 3,...T ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺸﺭﻭﻁ ﺍﻟﻌﺯﻭﻡ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻁﺄ ﻭﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ .ﻭﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺸﺭﻭﻁ ﺍﻟﻌﺯﻭﻡ ﺍﻗﺘﺭﺡ ) Arellano and Bond (1991ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ .GMM 3.3ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ GMMﺠﻴﺩﺓ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﻤﺘﺴﻘﺔ .ﻭﻴﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﺍﺘﺴﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻴﻀ ﹰﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴـﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺼﺎﻟﺤﺔ .ﻭﻟﻠﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺼﻼﺤﻴﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﺴﻠﻲ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ. ﻭﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻠﺔ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ Uit ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺘﺴﻠﺴﻠﻴﹰﺎ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﺴﻠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ .ﻭﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻡ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺘﺴﻠﺴﻠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻭﺍﻗﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻲ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴــل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ GMMﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ ﻟﻤﺘﻐــﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ. ﻭﻓﻲ ﻅل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ،ﻓﺈﻥ ⎡⎣ ∆U it ∆U it − 2 ⎤⎦ = 0 . Eﻭﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﻴﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻷﺼﻠﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺘﺴﻠﺴﻠﻴﹰﺎ ﻭﻴﺘﺒﻊ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺭﻙ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ .ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺭﻓﺽ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﻴﻌﻨﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺤــﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻷﺼﻠﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺘﺴﻠﺴﻠﻴﹰﺎ ، ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﻜﺩ ﺼﻼﺤﻴﺔ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﻭﺸﺭﻭﻁ ﺍﻟﻌﺯﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘــﺩﻴﺭ) Calderόn .(et al., 1999, p. 11 273 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 .4ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ 1.4ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻭﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺘﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺸﺭﺓ ﺩﻭل ﻤﻥ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﻫﻲ: ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ ،ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏ ،ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ،ﺍﻟﻜﻭﻴﺕ ،ﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﻹﺴﻼﻤﻴﺔ ،ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ ،ﻤﻭﺭﻴﺘﺎﻨﻴﺎ ،ﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﺼﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ،ﺍﻟﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﺭﻴﺔ ،ﺘﻭﻨﺱ. ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﻁﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻟﻜل ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻟﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ .ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺴﻼﺴل ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ .Unbalanced Panel Dataﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺍﺕ) = N *T ( NTﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ) ( Tﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻜل ﺩﻭﻟﺔ. 2.4ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ: .1ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ) : ( gﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻨﺼﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ it ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ )ﺒﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺴﻨﺔ (1990ﻤﻘﺎﺴﹰﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ .ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ : git = ∆( PCIit )/ PCIit *100 PCIit = (RGDP / POP)it ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ : PCI = ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻨﺼﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ )ﺒﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺴﻨﺔ (1990ﻤﻘﺎﺴ ﹰﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ = RGDPﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ )ﺒﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺴﻨﺔ (1990ﻤﻘﺎﺴﹰﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ = POPﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ .2ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨل ) it : ( FDIﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨل ﻜﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ .ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺒﻘﺴﻤﺔ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻘﺎﺴﹰﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻘﺎﺴﹰﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ) ( GDPﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ،ﻤﻊ ﻀﺭﺏ ﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ .100 it 274 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 .3ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ) it : ( Hﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﺘﺤﻘﻴﻥ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻭﻱ .ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻭﻱ )ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻨﺎﺕ( ﺒﻐﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻓﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻡ ﻤﻘﺴﻭﻤﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺫﻴﻥ ﻴﻨﺩﺭﺠﻭﻥ ﺘﺤﺕ ﻓﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ،ﻤﻊ ﻀﺭﺏ ﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ . 100 .4ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ) : (OPENﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ it ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻘﺎﺴﹰﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻤﻘﺴﻭﻤﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ GDPit ،ﻤﻊ ﻀﺭﺏ ﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ .100 .5ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ) : ( INVﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ )ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻴﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل it ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺕ ﺯﺌﺩﹰﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ( ﻜﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ .ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺒﻘﺴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻘﺎﺴﹰﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ، GDPﻤﻊ it ﻀﺭﺏ ﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ .100 .6ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ) : ( FSDﺘﻘﻴﺱ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴﻊ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻘﺎﺴ ﹰﺎ it ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ) ( M 2ﺇﻟﻲ GDPit ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ .ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ – ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻁﻠﻕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ -ﺘﻘﻴﺱ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ .ﻭﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ M 2ﺇﻟﻲ GDPit ﻋﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ ﻴﻌﻨﻰ ﺘﺭﺍﻜﻡ ﺃﺴﺭﻉ ﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﺘﻨﻭﻋــﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺼـﻭل ﺍﻟﻤـﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻤـﺔ ،ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌـﻊ ﺍﻻﺩﺨــﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺒﺼﻔﺔ ﺨﺎﺼـﺔ ) Darrat, 1999, p. ، (26ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﺎﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ،ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻨﻁﻭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻤﺩﺨﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺨﺭﻴﻥ ﻭﻤﻨﺤﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ،ﻤﻥ ﺨـﻼل ﻗﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ .ﻭﻨﻅﺭﹰﺍ ﻷﻨﻪ ﻤﻊ ﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﻨﻤﻭ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﻭﻅﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﺎﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ،ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ] [(M 2/ GDP)*100ﻜﻤﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﻭﺍﺴـﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺩﺏ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ )ﺍﻨﻅﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎلKing and Levine, 1993a, 1993b ; Murinde and Eng, : 1994 ; Lyons and Murinde, 1994 ; Arestis and Demetriades, 1977 ; Ahmed and ; .(Ansari, 1998 ; and Darrat, 1999 .7ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺘﻤﺜل ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻴﻥ :ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ Interaction Effectﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﻓﻘﻁ .ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎل ،ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻔﺎﻋل ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﺎ ﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺁﺨﺭ .ﻻﺤﻅ ﺃﻥ ﻜل ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉ ﻫﻭ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺤﺎﺼل ﻀﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺒﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﺘﻔﺎﻋل ﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ .ﻭﺘﺸﻤل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺘﻔﺎﻋل ﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘل ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ) ( FDIﻭﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ it ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ .ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻵﺘﻲ: 275 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 - ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻴﻌﺒﱢﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻔﺎﻋل FDIﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ : [( FDI * H ) ] Hﺘﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻁﻭﻴﻊ it ﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺄﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ ﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻡ. ﻓﺎﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ ﻟﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻤﺎ ﺘﺴﻤﺢ ﺒﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ .ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺃﺨﺫ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲit : ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻴﻌ ﱢﺒﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻔﺎﻋل FDIﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ : [( FDI * FSD) ] FSDﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺘﻔﺎﻋل FDIﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ it ) . ( FDI * H .FSDﻓﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥ FSDﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ .FDIﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﻜﺱ ). ( FDI * FSD ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺤﺎﺼل ﻀﺭﺏ FDIitﻭ ، FSDitﺃﻱ it ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻴﻌﺒﱢﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻔﺎﻋل FDIﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ :[( FDI *OPEN ) ] OPENﻗﺩ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﺘﻔﺎﻋل it ﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ ﺒﻴﻥ FDIﻤﻊ .OPENﻓﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺯﻴﺩ FDIﻜﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ .OPENﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺃﺨﺫ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ. ( FDI *OPEN ) : it .8ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ) : ( EFﻗﺎﻤﺕ ﻤﺠﻠﺔ Wall Streetﺒﺎﻟﺘﻌــﺎﻭﻥ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺔ Heritageﺒﺈﻋﺩﺍﺩ it ﺭﻗـﻡ ﻗﻴــﺎﺴﻲ )ﻤﺅﺸﺭ( ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ The Index of Economic Freedom ) .(The Heritage Foundation, 2004) (EFﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﻫﻭ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻟﻘﻴﻡ 10ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺘﻐﻁﻲ 10ﻤﺠﺎﻻﺕ ﻫﻲ :ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ،ﺍﻟﺴﻴـﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ،ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ،ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ،ﺍﻷﺠﻭﺭ ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ،ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﻨﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ،ﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ، ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﺩﺍﺀ ،ﺍﻟﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺭﻭﻗﺭﺍﻁﻴﺔ ،ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ. ﻻﺤﻅ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺘﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ ﺒﻴﻥ 1ﻭ .5ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺄﺨﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ 1ﻓﺈﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺘﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺒﺄﻗﺼﻰ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ )ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﺘﺤﺭﺭﹰﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ( ،ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺄﺨﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ 5ﻓﺈﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺘﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺒﺄﺩﻨﻰ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ )ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﺍﻨﻐﻼﻗﹰﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﻗل ﺘﺤﺭﺭﹰﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ(. ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺇﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺴﺎﻟﺒﺔ .ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻟﻠﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ) ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺴﻥ ﺃﻭ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ( ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ. .9ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ) : ( INFﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻔﺽ ﺍﻟﻀﻤﻨﻲ ﻟﻠﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ it ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ GDP Implicit Deflatorﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻭﻀﺢ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻜﻜل. ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺒﻘﺴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻘﺎﺴﹰﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ 276 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻷٍﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ) (1990 = 100ﻤﻘﺎﺴﹰﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ،ﻤﻊ ﻀﺭﺏ ﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ .100 .10ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ) : (GSﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻜﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ it ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ .ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺒﻘﺴﻤﺔ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻘﺎﺴ ﹰﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ GDPit .11ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ) ،ﻤﻊ ﻀﺭﺏ ﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ .100 : ( POPGﻋﺩل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ. it .12ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ) : ( PRﻗﺎﻡ ﺒﻴﺕ ﺍﻟﺤــﺭﻴﺔ ) Freedom House (2003ﺒﺈﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﻗﻡ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻲ it ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻟﻠﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ The Index of Political Rights ) ،(PRﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﻀﻤﻥ ﺤﻕ ﻜل ﻓﺭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺸﺘﺭﺍﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻤﺘﺨﺫﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻲ ).(Meek, 2003, p. 1 ﻻﺤﻅ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺘﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ ﺒﻴﻥ 1ﻭ .7ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺄﺨﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ 1 ﻓﺈﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺘﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺒﺄﻗﺼﻰ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺤـﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ )ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﺘﺤﺭﺭﹰﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ( ،ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺄﺨﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ 7ﻓﺈﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺘﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺒﺄﺩﻨﻰ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ) ﺍﻷﻗل ﺘﺤﺭﺭﹰﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ (. ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺇﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺴﺎﻟﺒﺔ .ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ) ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺴﻥ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ( ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ. 3.4ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻴﻭﻀﺢ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ) (2ﺒﻤﻠﺤﻕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ. .5ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﻴﻬﺩﻑ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ GMMﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻭﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ .ﻭﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺎﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺤﺤﺔ ﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ Heteroskedasticity-Consistent ) .Covariance Matrix (HCCMﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻟﻸﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﻁﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ .ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﺘﺴﻤﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ GMMﻓﻲ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ .ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﻼﺹ ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ. 277 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ﻭﻟﻌﻠﻪ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﻴﺩ ﻗﺒل ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ FDI ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ،ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻜل ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺩﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ .ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻴﻨﻘﺴﻡ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺩ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺒﻨﺩﻴﻥ ﻓﺭﻋﻴﻴﻥ :ﺃﻭﻟﻬﻤﺎ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ FDIﺒﺎﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ. ﻭﺜﺎﻨﻴﻬﻤﺎ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ. 1.5ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻴﻬﺩﻑ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺩ ﺇﻟﻲ ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺇﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﻨﻅﺭﺓ ﻤﺒﺩﺌﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ FDIﺒﺎﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ) ( gﻗﺒل ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ .ﻭﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﺘﻡ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻋﻼﻗﺔ FDIﺒﺎﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ، gﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻜل ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ]ﻨﻅﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ) (3ﺒﻤﻠﺤﻕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ[ ﻭﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﻟﻜل ﺴﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ]ﻨﻅﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ) (4ﺒﻤﻠﺤﻕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ[. ﻓﺒﺎﻹﻁﻼﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ) (3ﺒﻤﻠﺤﻕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ،ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ .1 :ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDIﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ 2003 – 1995ﻜﺎﻥ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ، % 1.52ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ gﺨﻼل ﻨﻔﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ .2 . % 1.05ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ gﻜﺎﻥ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﹰﺍ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺼﺭ ، ﻭﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﹰﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏ ،ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻁﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ .3 .ﺇﻥ ﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ FDIﻭ gﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﻭﺠﺒﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ 6ﺩﻭل ﻤﻥ 10ﺩﻭل .ﺃﻤﺎ ﺒﺎﻹﻁﻼﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )(4 ﺒﻤﻠﺤﻕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ،ﻓﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﺘﻤﺎﺜل ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﻤﻊ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻕ ﺫﻜﺭﻩ .ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﺘﻀﺢ ﺇﻥ ﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ FDIﻭ gﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﻭﺠﺒﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ 6ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ 9ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺸﻜل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ. ﻭﺒﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ FDIﻭ gﻟﻜل ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ،ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ ،ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻴﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ .0.14ﻭﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﻤﻭﺠﺒﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﻴﻥ .ﻭﺘﺘﻀﺢ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻤﺠﺭﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ .ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺼﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ﻓﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺘﻀﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ. 278 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ ) :(3ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ 10 5 0 g -5 -10 -15 20 15 10 FDI 5 0 2.5ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻴﻭﻀﺢ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ) (5ﺒﻤﻠﺤﻕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ .ﻭﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ: ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ) Arellano and Bond (1991ﻟﻼﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﺴﻠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ GMMﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻭﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ ﺇﻟﻲ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺭﻓﺽ ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻡ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ،ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ .ﻭﻴﻌﻨﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺃﻥ ﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻷﺼﻠﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺘﺴﻠﺴﻠﻴ ﹰﺎ .ﻭﻴﺅﻜﺩ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺼﻼﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ،ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ،ﻭﺼﻼﺤﻴﺔ ﺸﺭﻭﻁ ﺍﻟﻌﺯﻭﻡ ﻼ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺘﺴﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ .ﻭﻴﻌﺩ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺩﻟﻴ ﹰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ. ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ Fﻓﻲ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﺇﻟﻲ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻜل ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻜﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ. ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻕ ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻘل ﻓﻲ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ .ﻭﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ) Bengoa and .(Sánchez-Robles, 2003, p. 11 ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻟـﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ :ﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ،ﺘﻔﺎﻋل FDIﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ،ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁـﺎﻉ 279 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ،ﺘﻔﺎﻋل FDIﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ،ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ،ﺘﻔﺎﻋل FDIﻤـﻊ ﺃﺜـﺭ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ،ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ،ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ،ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ،ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠـﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ،ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ،ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ .ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺃﻥ FDIﻴﻌﺘﺒـﺭ ﺃﺤـﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺤـﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ. ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺇﺸﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ ﻨﻅﺭﻴﹰﺎ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ :ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ،ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ، ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ،ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ]ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺭﻗﻡ ) (2ﻓﻘﻁ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺘﻀﻤﻥ FDIﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤـﺴﺘﻘل[ ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ،ﺘﻔﺎﻋل FDIﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ،ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺘﺠـﺎﺭﻱ ،ﺘﻔﺎﻋـل FDIﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ،ﺘﻔﺎﻋل FDIﻤﻊ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ،ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠـﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ،ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ. ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDIﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﻤﻊ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺃﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻭﺠﻭﺩﻩ .ﻭﻴﻌﻨﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺜﺭ FDIﻤﺴﺘﻘل ﻋﻥ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤـﺎﻟﻲ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟـﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ. ﺘﺤﺴﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ FDIﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻘل ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ .ﻓﺒﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺭﻗﻡ ) (2ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺘﻀﻤﻥ FDIﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤـﺴﺘﻘل ، ﺒﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ) (3ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻟﻡ ﻴﺘﻀﻤﻥ FDIﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻘل ،ﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴـﺔ ﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ،ﻭﺍﻟﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ،ﻭﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ،ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠـﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺭﻗﻡ ) (2ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒﻤﺜﻴﻠﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺭﻗﻡ ) .(3ﻭﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDIﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ. ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋل FDIﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻱ. ﻭﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﺒﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ .FDIﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ FDIﻴﻤﻜﻨﻪ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ. ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺠﻴﻥ ﺭﻗﻤـﻲ ) (1ﻭ ) (2ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﻥ ﻀﻤﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺘﻬﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ .FDI ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺠﻴﻥ ﺭﻗﻤﻲ ) (1ﻭ ) .(2ﻻﺤﻅ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺭﻗﻡ ) (3ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻟﻡ ﻴﻜﻥ FDIﻀﻤﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ،ﻜﺎﻥ ﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ .ﻭﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺃﻥ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ FDIﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤـﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺠﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﻴﻥ ﺒﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ]) (1ﻭ ) [(2ﺃﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻫـﺫﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺠﻴﻥ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺴﺒﻕ ﺫﻜﺭﻩ. 280 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺴﺎﻟﺏ ﻭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋل FDIﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺠﻴﻥ ﺭﻗﻤﻲ ) (1ﻭ ) (2ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻀﻤﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺘﻬﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ .FDIﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤـﺼﻭل ﻋﻠـﻰ ﻨﻔـﺱ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ) .(Carkovice and Levine, 2002, p. 10ﻭﺭﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺭﺠﻊ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺡ ﻤﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ .ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﻬـﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺭﺼـﻴﺩ ﻴﺘـﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDIﻓﻘﻁ ﻭﻟﻴﺱ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺱ .ﻭﺍﻟﺩﻟﻴل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺃﻥ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ FDIﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻘل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭ ﺃﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺘﺤﺴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ – ﻜﻤﺎ ﺴﺒﻕ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﻪ -ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒـﺎﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻟﻡ ﻴﺘﻀﻤﻥ FDIﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻘل ،ﺤﻴﺙ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭ. ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ .ﻭﻴﻌﻨﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺃﻥ ﺯﻴـﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴـﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ. ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ. ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺴﺎﻟﺏ ﻭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ .ﻭﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﻨﻘﺹ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ. ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺫﻭ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ .ﻭﻴﻌﻨﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺜﺒﻴﺕ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺩﻭﺭﹰﺍ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﹰﺎ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ. ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡ ﺍﺘﺠـﺎﺭﻱ ،ﻭﺘﻔﺎﻋـل FDIﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ،ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ .ﻭﺭﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺭﺠﻊ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺩﺭﺠﺘﻲ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ. ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ .ﻭﻴﺭﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺘﻀﺎﺅل ﺤﺠﻡ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ .ﻻﺤﻅ ﺃﻨﻪ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻭﺫﻭ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴـﺔ ﺇﺤـﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﺤﺠـﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ) Bashir (1999ﻋﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺨـــﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ .1990 - 1975 .6ﺍﻟﻤﻠﺨﺹ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﻼﺼﺔ ﻭﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﻷﻏﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼــﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻌﺩﺩ 10ﺩﻭل ﻤﻥ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ .2003 -1995ﻭﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻫﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺘﻤﺯﺝ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴــل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺒﻴﺎﻨـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻁــﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﻀﻴﺔ .Dynamic Panel Data Modelsﻭﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻤــﺎﺫﺝ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤـﺔ 281 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ﻟﻠﻌﺯﻭﻡ ) The Generalized Method of Moments (GMMﺍﻟﻤﻘـﺘﺭﺤﺔ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁــﺔ Arellano ).and Bond (1991 ﻭﺘﺘﻠﺨﺹ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻵﺘﻲ : .1 ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ .ﻭﺘﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺼل ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻠﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﺼﺘﺎ ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺃﺜﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺩﻭل ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ])] [Bashir (1995), Hassan (2003ﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ) (1ﺒﻤﻠﺤﻕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ[. .2 ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻔﺎﻋﻠﻪ ﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ. .3 ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺴﺎﻟﺏ ﻭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻔﺎﻋﻠﻪ ﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ. .4 ﻋﺩﻡ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻔﺎﻋﻠﻪ ﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ. ﻭﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻷﻏﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻵﺘﻲ : .1 ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﺒﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﺠﺘﺫﺍﺏ ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ .ﺤﻴﺙ ﺨﻠﺼﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل. .2 ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ﺒﺈﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻹﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل .ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻭﻀﺤﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ FDIﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ. .3 ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﺒﺈﺘﺒﺎﻉ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﻟﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ .ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDIﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ. .4 ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺡ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ .ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDIﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺡ ﻤﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﹰﺎ. 282 2005 ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ15 و14 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ Agiomirgianakis, G., Asteriou, D., and Apothem, K. 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The Heritage Foundation (2004), Index of Economic Freedom, http://www.heritage.org/research/features/index/countryFiles/English/2004Index .pdf World Bank (2003), World Development Indicators CD – ROM, World Bank: Washington, DC. www.sesrtcic.org 286 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ﻤﻠﺤﻕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ) :(1ﻤﻠﺨﺹ ﻟﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﻀـﻴﺔ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ 1985 - 1960 78ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻭ 23ﺩﻭﻟـﺔ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﹰﺎ ﻁﺭﻴﻘـﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺒﻌـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﺼﻐﺭﻯ ﻟﻠﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻜﻜل. ﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ Blomstrom et al. )(1994 ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻴﺔ ) (OLSﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ـﺏ ـﺭ ﻤﻭﺠـ ـﻭﺩ ﺃﺜـ ﻭﺠـ ﻭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭ FDIﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟـﺩﻭل ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴــﺭ FDIﻋﻠــﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤــﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﻤﻨﺨﻔـﻀﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺴﺎﻜﻥ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﺴﻼﺴل ، 1979 – 1970 ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴــﺭ FDIﻋﻠــﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤــﻭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﹰﺎ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘـﺩﻴﺭ 1989 – 1980 ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ ﻅﺎﻫﺭﻴﹰﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ The Seemingly Unrelated ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠـﺏ Regression (SUR)Technique ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ 287 69ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ Borensztein et al. )(1995 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻴﻔﺔ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟـﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﺒﱢﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻔﺎﻋل FDIﻤﻊ ﺃﺜـﺭ ﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ـﺏ ـﺭ ﻤﻭﺠـ ـﻭﺩ ﺃﺜـ ﻭﺠـ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﻀـﻴﺔ ـﺭﺍﺕ ـﻲ OLSﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴـ ـﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﹰﺎ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺘـ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴــﺭ FDIﻋﻠــﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤــﻭ ﻤـ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻜﻜل The Generalized Instrumental ـﺏ ـﺭ ﻤﻭﺠـ ـﻭﺩ ﺃﺜـ ﻭﺠـ Variable Estimator ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴــﺭ FDIﻋﻠــﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤــﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ـﺸﺠﻴﻊ ـﺔ ﺘـ ـﻊ ﺴﻴﺎﺴـ ـﻲ ﺘﺘﺒـ ﺍﻟﺘـ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴــﺭ FDIﻋﻠــﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤــﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﺒﻊ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻹﺤﻼل ﻤﺤـل ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ 288 1985 - 1970 46ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻨﺎﻤﻴـﺔ ﺘـﻡ Balasubramanyam ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺘﺘﺒـﻊ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺘـﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺍﻟـﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺘﻁﺒـﻕ ﺴﻴﺎﺴـﺔ ﺍﻹﺤﻼل ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ )et al. (1996 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ـﺏ ـﺭ ﻤﻭﺠـ ـﻭﺩ ﺃﺜـ ﻭﺠـ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﻀـﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴــﺭ FDIﻋﻠــﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤــﻭ ﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ OLS 1990 - 1980 50ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ )Olofsdotter (1998 ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻗﻭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﺒﱢﺭ ﻋـﻥ ﺘﻔﺎﻋـل FDI ﺴــﻭﺍﺀ ﻤــﻊ ﺃﺜــﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻔــﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺭﻭﻗﺭﺍﻁﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺤﻤﺎﻴـﺔ ﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ـﺏ ـﺭ ﻤﻭﺠـ ـﻭﺩ ﺃﺜـ ﻭﺠـ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺴﺎﻜﻥ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﺴﻼﺴل 1990 - 1975 )ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻪ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﻨـﻭﻱ( ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﹰﺎ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘـﺩﻴﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ـﻥ ﺩﻭل 6ﺩﻭل ﻤـــ )Bashir (1999 ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺘــﻲ OLSﻭﻁﺭﻴﻘــﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺒﻌــﺎﺕ ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ـﺭ ﻤﻭﺠـ ـﻭﺩ ﺃﺜـ ﻭﺠـ ـﺏ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﺭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ The Generalized Least Squares )ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻪ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ( ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ (GLS) Technique ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﺒﱢـﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻔﺎﻋل FDIﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﺘﺴﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻤـﻊ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻲ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﻭﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻠﺔ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻫﻨـﺎﻙ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﹰﺎ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ 289 1995 - 1960 72ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ Carkovic and )Levine (2002 اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ 14و 15ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ 2005 ﺃﺜﺭ ﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDIﻋﻠـﻰ ﻟﻠﻌﺯﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ـﺏ ـﺭ ﻤﻭﺠـ ـﻭﺩ ﺃﺜـ ﻭﺠـ The Generalized Method of )Moments (GMM ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺴﺎﻜﻥ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﺴﻼﺴل ﻭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭ FDIﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﹰﺎ ﻁﺭﻴﻘـﺔ OLS ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨـﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ 2001 - 1980 ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ ﺸـﻤﻠﺕ 95ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺸﻤﻠﺕ 8 ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ ﺩﻭل ﻤﻥ ﺩﻭل ﺃﻗﻠـﻴﻡ ﺍﻟـﺸﺭﻕ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺴﺎﻟﺏ* ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ 290 )Hassan (2003 ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ :ﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ * ﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺃﺨﺭﻱ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺴﺎﻟﺏ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDIﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ : Saltz, 1999; Herms and Lensink, 1999. ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ) :(2ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻤﺼﺩﺭ)ﺃﻭ ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ( ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ: ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ )ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ( 2000 -1995ﻤـﺄﺨﻭﺫﺓ ﻤـﻥ: ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴـﺔ ﺍﺴﻁﻭﺍﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴـﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨل ) ( FDIit ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﺎﻡ 2002 ﺩﺭﺠـــــﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺘـــــﺎﺡ ]). [World Bank (2002 ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ 2003 – 2001 :ﻤﺄﺨﻭﺫﺓ ﻤﻥ :ﻗﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ )(http://devdata.worldbank.orgdata.query ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ) (OPENit ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴــــﺔ ﻤﻘﺎﺴــــﹰﺎ ﺍﻟــــﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ) (GDPit ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ) ( POPit ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺭﺓ 2000 – 1995ﻤـﺄﺨﻭﺫﺓ ﻤـﻥ: ﺍﺴﻁﻭﺍﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴـﺔ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ) (GSit ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﺎﻡ 2002 ]). [World Bank (2002 ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻋﺎﻡ 2001ﻤﺄﺨﻭﺫﺓ ﻤﻥ :ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﺎﻡ 2003ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ )(rrojasdatabank.inf/wdr03/swidi.pdf ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ 2003 – 2002 :ﻤـﺄﺨﻭﺫﺓ ﻤـﻥ : Country at a Glanceﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ (http://www.worldbank.org/data/countrydata/ )countrydata.html ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺼﺩﺭﻫﺎ ﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺒـﺎﻟﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴـﻊ ﺒﺎﻷﺴــﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴــﺔ ﻤﻘﺎﺴــﹰﺎ ﺒﺎﻟــﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺨﻁ )(Online http://www.imfstatistics.org/imf/ifsbrowser.aﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ) (M 2it )spx?branch=ROOT ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻔﺽ ﺍﻟﻀﻤﻨﻲ ﻟﻠﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠـﻲ ﻗﺴﻡ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀ ﺒﺎﻷﻤﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ (http://millenniumindicators.un.org/unsd/snaaﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ) (1990 = 100ﻤﻘﺎﺴﹰﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﻌﻤﻠـﺔ )ma 291 ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ) (GDPDEFit ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘـﻲ ﺒﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺴـﻨﺔ 1990ﻤﻘﺎﺴـﹰﺎ ﺒﺎﻟـﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ) ( RGDPit ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻫﻭ :ﻤﺭﻜـﺯ ﺍﻷﺒﺤـﺎﺙ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴـﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘـﺩﺭﻴﺏ ﻟﻠـﺩﻭل ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ) ( Hit ﺍﻹﺴﻼﻤﻴﺔ )(www.sesrtcic.org ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻋﺎﻤﻲ 1995ﻭ 1996ﻟﻸﺭﺩﻥ ﺘﻡ ﺃﺨـﺫﻫﺎ ﻤﻥ :ﺍﺴﻁﻭﺍﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼـﺔ ﺒﻤﺅﺸـﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴـﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﺎﻡ 2002 ]). [World Bank (2002 ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻋﺎﻤﻲ 1999ﻭ 2000ﻟﻠﻤﻐﺭﺏ ،ﻭﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻋﺎﻡ 2001ﻟﻠﻜﻭﻴﺕ ﻭﺘﻭﻨﺱ ،ﻭﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻋﺎﻡ 2003ﻟﻜﺎﻓـﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﺄﺨﻭﺫﺓ ﻤـﻥ :ﻤﻌﻬـﺩ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻨﺴﻜﻭ )(http://www.uis.unesco.org ﻻﺤﻅ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﺘﺴﻘﺔ ﻷﻥ ﺒﻴﺎﻨـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﻭل ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﻤﺼﺩﺭﻫﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻨﻅﻤـﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻨﺴﻜﻭ. )Freedom House (2003 ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ) ( PRit ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ) ( EFit )The Heritage Foundation (2004 292 ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ) :(3ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ) ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ( ﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ FDIﻭ g ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ g ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ g ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDI ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDI 0.09 1.62 1.95 0.89 0.57 ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ 0.31 5.50 1.25 2.99 1.70 ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏ -0.22 1.43 0.32 2.21 2.90 ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ -0.27 5.05 -6.14 0.72 -0.03 ﺍﻟﻜﻭﻴﺕ 0.76 1.90 3.0 0.07 0.06 ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ -0.69 1.30 1.73 0.52 1.24 ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ 0.49 1.16 1.50 7.16 4.80 ﻤﻭﺭﻴﺘﺎﻨﻴﺎ 0.38 1.00 2.45 0.35 0.93 ﻤﺼﺭ 0.16 3.78 1.06 0.11 0.63 ﺴﻭﺭﻴﺎ -0.39 1.72 3.42 1.00 2.39 ﺘﻭﻨﺱ 0.14 3.77 1.05 2.85 1.52 ﻜل ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ) :(4ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ) ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ( ﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﻲ FDIﻭ g ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ g ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ g ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDI ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ FDI 0.25 -0.29 0.21 -0.21 0.31 0.25 0.47 -0.11 0.15 0.14 3.92 5.19 2.90 2.04 4.09 4.53 5.13 2.12 2.36 3.77 0.82 2.41 0.46 2.44 -0.14 -0.63 0.24 1.44 2.45 1.05 0.50 0.44 1.51 1.43 0.76 2.19 3.48 3.52 6.04 2.85 0.48 0.54 0.99 1.05 0.74 1.49 2.56 2.50 3.31 1.52 ﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ 293 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2003 - 1995 ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ) :(5ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ )(2003 - 1995 ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻊ :ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ) (∆git 6 -0.528 *)(0.065 -0.577 ***)(0.000 ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ 2 3 4 5 -0.883 -0.776 -0.493 -0.523 **)(0.027 **)(0.048 *)(0.050 *)(0.067 -0.536 -0.577 -0.603 -0.591 ***)(0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000 ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ 1 -0.699 ﺍﻟﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺕ *)(0.076 -0.475 ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ (∆g ***) (0.008ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻕ ) it −1 ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓـﻲ ﺘـﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ 0.981 ***)(0.005 1.346 ***)(0.000 0.003 )(0.184 0.006 **)(0.041 0.008 ***)(0.000 0.238 )(0.441 -6.702 ***)(0.000 0.310 )(0.267 -6.783 ***)(0.000 0.390 )(0.242 -6.774 ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴــــﺭ ﻓــــﻲ ﻨﻤــــﻭ ***) (0.000ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ) (∆POPG -2.144 )(0.269 -6.225 ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴـــﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸـــﺭﺓ ﺇﻟـــﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨل ) (∆FDIit -2.439 ***)(0.000 -2.458 ***)(0.000 -2.534 ***)(0.000 ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴــﺭ ﻓــﻲ ﺘﻁــﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁــﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ) (∆FSDit ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ) (∆GSit it 294 -6.789 ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴــــﺭ ﻓــــﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﻘــــﻭﻕ **)(0.019 ***) (0.000ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ) (∆PRit -0.858 )(0.633 -0.282 )(0.876 0.687 )(0.740 ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴــــﺭ ﻓــــﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴــــﺔ 0.036 )(0.527 0.092 *)(0.078 0.103 **)(0.010 ـﺎل ـﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤـ ـﻲ ﺭﺼـ ـﺭ ﻓـ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴـ -0.0003 )(0.942 -0.016 *)(0.060 -0.022 **)(0.011 0.233 ***)(0.005 0.225 ***)(0.003 ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ) (∆EFit ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ) (∆Hit ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻔﺎﻋل ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨل ﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺭﺼـــــﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤـــــﺎل ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻱ ] [∆( FDI * H )it 0.0004 **)(0.028 0.0004 *)(0.071 ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴــﺭ ﻓــﻲ ﺍﻻﺴــﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠــﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ) (∆INVit ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻔﺎﻋل ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ 0.0001 **)(0.019 ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨل ﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ ـﺎﻉ ـﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁــــــ ﺘﻁــــــ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ] [∆( FDI * FSD)it 0.0008 )(0.512 ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻔﺎﻋل ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ 0.0005 )(0.614 ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨل ﻤﻊ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺩﺭﺠــــــﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺘــــــﺎﺡ 295 ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ] [∆( FDI *OPEN )it -0.048 *)(0.052 -0.047 **)(0.045 ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴــﺭ ﻓــﻲ ﻤﻌــﺩل ﺍﻟﺘــﻀﺨﻡ 0.016 )(0.562 0.019 )(0.480 ﺩﺭﺠــــــﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺘــــــﺎﺡ -1.44 )(0.151 -1.46 )(0.144 ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ) (∆INFit ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ) (∆OPENit -1.45 )(0.147 -1.61 )(0.108 -1.43 )(0.152 -1.14 )(0.253 ﺇﺤـﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﺨﺘﺒـﺎﺭ Arellano and ) Bond (1991ﻟﻼﺭﺒﺘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠـﺴﻠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﻤﻼﺤﻅﺎﺕ: *** ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ ﺩﻻﻟﺔ ﻗﺩﺭﻩ % 1 ** ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ ﺩﻻﻟﺔ ﻗﺩﺭﻩ % 5 * ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻱ ﺩﻻﻟﺔ ﻗﺩﺭﻩ % 10 -ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻡ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﻗﻭﺍﺱ ﺘﻤﺜل ﻗﻴﻡ – p 296
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