تحميل الملف المرفق

١٣‫م‬






 

‫ﻋﺒﺪاﶈﻤﻮد ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﺒﺪاﻟﺮﲪﻦ‬
 
 ––
‫اﳌﺴﺘﺨﻠﺺ‬
 


 
 
 




 
 

 



‫ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬-١

 




 





 



 
 
 
 
 
 
Altimir,1984, Bhagwati 1988, Fieldes 1989, Cardoso and Helwegge 1992, and Thomas 1987.

 ‫اﳊﺒﻴﺐ‬‫ﺳﻼﻣﺔ‬
 ‫ﺳﻼﻣﺔ‬


 

(Hicks)



  


  




 
(Burki and Ul Haq)


 
 
 --




 Hicks, 1979 
 
  Hicks and Streeten 1979, Hicks 1979 Streeten, 1981‫ﳏﺒﻮب اﳊﻖ‬
 Burki and Ui Haq 



 
 

 


 



 
 
‫ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج واﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ واﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت‬-٢
PCY

(The World Tables)


 

 (Wheeler)
 Wheeler, 1980 


(Hicks)RGPCY
--
 

 





 Morris) 
Physical Quality of Life Index (PQLI)



 
(Knowles) 
 
 
Larson and Wilford, 1975, Morris, 1979, Wheeler, 1980, Ram, 1982,
 Tilak, 1992, Simonis, 1991, McGillivray, 1991.
 Morris, 1979 
 Azariadis and Drazen, 1990Wheeler, 1980 
 Knowles, 1993 
Knowles, 1993


 

AGE
 INFT

 PRIM

 


 


 
 
 

 
 

INVES

 XMY

 

XMY 
 

 


 
 

 pcy = f (age ,inf t , prim, inves, xmy ) + u
  
  pcy
  age
  inft
  prim
  inves
  xmy
 
u

 



 

The World BankWorld Tables
 

 Time Series Analysis
 
 




-
 

 Pooled Time Series- Cross Section Analysis


 --

 


  




 



  



 
‫ اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج اﳌﻘﺪرة‬-٣
‫ دوال اﳓﺪار اﻟﺪول اﳌﻔﺮدة‬-١/٣

 
pcy j = α j + β j age j + γ j inf t j + δ j prim j + ω j inves j + η j xmy j + u j ; 

j = 1, 2,...,10
 

β j ,δ j ,ω j , ηj > 0
γj <0

  Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)  
Feasible Generalized Least 
 Squares(FGLS)
 
 
d
-2
R
xmy
inves
0 . 352
( 4.387)

−0 . 065
(1.351)

−0 . 299
(1.720)

 0 . 301
(1.294)
0963
0 . 464
( 2.009)

0 . 063
( 0.471)

0925
0 . 073
( 0.457)

0 . 241
( 2.620)

2418*
0951
1552
0967
1651
1239
age

−0.375
( 3.797 )


−0 . 364
( 2.594)
 0 . 424
( 3.381)
 5.731
( 4 .091)
 0 . 973
( 2.783)
−21. 614
( 5.543)



5 . 772
( 7.591)

 0 . 524
(1.957)
 8 . 818
(5.041)
−33. 843
( 3.934)



 0 . 162
( 0.562)
 3 . 125
(1.977)
−7 . 682
(1.022 )


prim
inft




 Regression and Time Series Analysis (RATS)

d
-2
R
xmy
inves
prim

age

−0 . 897
( 4.791)
 1. 964
( 3.845)
 2 . 801
( 0.999)
54 . 416 −239 . 908
(9.890) (7.277)
inft
1943*
0982
0 . 038
( 4.796)

−0 . 290
( 4.785)

1925*
0946
1. 790
(5.270)

−0 . 185
(1.630)

−5. 629
( 3.315)

 9 . 373
( 4.553)
0 . 060
( 0.330)

−0 . 240
(1.875)

0 . 296
( 0.461)

−0 . 067
( 0.367)

0 . 001
( 0.006)

0 . 621
( 2.758)

−0 . 524
( 3.047)

−0 . 372
(1.524)


−0 . 168
( 2.557)

0 . 065
( 2.182)

0 . 002
( 0.014)

0 . 169
( 3.060)

−0 . 333
(1.472)

0 . 089
( 2.804)

 0 . 380
(1.501)
−0 . 212
(1.573)

−0 . 109
(1105
. )

−0 . 025
( 0.311)









 1. 299
( 7.633)
10 . 330
(5.672)

−42 . 073
( 6.656)


 1. 040
(1.440)
6 . 772
( 2.202)

−23. 764
(1.663)


 0 . 341
( 0.249)
 22 . 111
( 0.646)



−3. 741
( 0.545)

−0 . 447
( 0.387)
1. 032
( 0.524)

 4 . 324
( 0.330)


−0 . 604
(1.747)

21. 002
( 4.839)
 7 . 494
(1.652)
3071. 422
( 4.751)

 0 . 766
(1.901)
 13. 071
( 2.999)
18 . 947
( 2.484)

−131. 736
( 2.672 )

 0 . 498
(1.787)
−15. 598
( 2.540)

−36 . 782 219 . 198
( 2.697 )
( 2.715)

 0 . 860
(1.829)
 3 . 057
(1.440)
−8 . 639
( 0.875)
1625
0958
2521
0914
2119*
0903
1802
0940
2602*
0961
1393*
0851
1928*
0837
1970
0495
2030*
0363
0 . 094
( 0.648)

 0 . 170
(1.287)
−0 . 157
( 0.751)

 9 . 978
(1.557)
16 . 232
(1.714)

−105. 642
(1.588)

2377*
0677
0 . 007
( 0.188)

−0 . 063
( 0.679)

 11. 621
( 4.038)
20 . 382
( 3.991)

−131. 604
( 3.914)

1571*
0532
0 . 502
( 4.241)


 6 . 756
( 2.414)
13. 487
( 2.406)

−77 . 435
( 2.224)
2620*
0921
2068*
0892
−0 . 217
(1.616)

 0 . 078
(1.573)
 0 . 120
( 0.101)
0 . 862
(8.439)

−2 . 305
(1.858)

 11. 641
(13.580)
63. 419
(11.757)

−294 . 756
(13.314)

0 . 023
( 0.385)

 0 . 133
(1.571)
 0 . 398
(1.477)
 1. 942
( 6.300)
15. 417
( 7.228)

−67 . 888
( 6.740)



















dt
2
R 
 


 


 

 
 




 


 
 



 



 ‫اﳊﺒﻴﺐ‬



 
 
 
Individual Effects  
Time Effects 

 

 
(Pooled Estimation) ‫ﻤﻊ‬‫ اﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ا‬-٢/٣
 

pcy ij = α ij + β ij age ij + γ ij inf t ij + δ ij prim ij + ωij inves ij + ηij xmy ij + u ij ;
i = 1970,1971,...,1990;
j = 1,2 ,...,19



 
 pcy = −7.063+ 3.227 age − 0.223 inf t + 0.085 prim
ij
ij
ij
ij

( 2.637 ) (5.714 )
(1.305)
( 0.770)
+ 0.258 inves ij + 0.142 xmy ij ;
(2.021)
2
R = 0.482
(1.691)
∧
σ = 0.738
∧
  σ 


 




 -

 
(Larson and


Wilford)

Specification Error 
 
 



 dumoil
darabdasaf

 
 pcy = −1.909 + 2.622 age − 0.570 inf t + 0.016 prim − 0.077 inves 
ij
ij
ij
ij
ij
( 0.711) ( 4.383)
( 3.602 )
( 0.151)
( 0.636)
+ 0.108 xmy ij + 0.612 dumoil ij − 0.199 dasaf ij + 0.493 darab ij
(1.390)
2
R = 0.588
( 6.041)
(1.905)
(5.214 )
∧
σ = 0.658 

 Larson and Wilford,1975 


F






 

 
p
 


F


 

Fixed Effects
Random Effects
 

Larson and Wilford, 1975
 


  
 



 
(The Fixed Effects Model) ‫ ﳕﺎذج اﳌﺆﺛﺮات اﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ‬-١/٢/٣




Covariance Model
The Within Estimator 
 
19
 
pcy = ∑ α j D j + β age + γ inf t + δ prim + ω inves + η xmy + u; 
1
j = 1, 2, …, 19
 

pcyij = 0.536 ageij − 0.570 inf tij + 0.169 primij + 0.418 invesij + 0.024 xmyij ; 
(1.487)
2
R = 0.374
(4.839)
(2.482)
(8.650)
(0.452)
∧
σ = 0.206
 Greene, 1993Hsiao, 1986



 

 


 

pcy ij = 1845
age ij − 0.408 inf t ij + 0155
primij + 0.067 invesij + 0.025 xmy ij ;
.
.
(7.471)
2
R = 0.374
(2.120)
( 2.220)
∧
σ = 0.206
(2.581)
∧
p =0.823
(28.101)
(0.650)



 

 
 
 
(The Random Effects Model) ‫ ﳕﺎذج اﳌﺆﺛﺮات اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻴﺔ‬-٢/٢/٣

 Parametric shift

 



 
The Error 
 Components Model
αj; j =12, ,...,19
 


 

pcy ij = 4.483 + 0.376 age ij − 0.542 inf t ij + 0.187 prim ij + 0.371 inves ij +
( 2.294 ) ( 0.999 )
( 4.960)
( 2.705)
( 7.269 )
0.050 xmy ij + 1165
.
dumoil + 0.733 dasaf ij + 1.051 darab ij 
ij ( 2.839 )
(0.947 )
( 3.951)
( 4.204 )
∧
2
σ = 0.212
R = 0.453





 
pcy ij = − 6.830 + 0.407 age ij − 0.323 inf t ij + 0.138 prim ij + 0.063 inves ij
(1123
. ) ( 0.801)

(1.861)
( 2.102 )
( 2.715)
+ 0.017 xmy ij + 2.817 dumoil ij + 3.033 dasaf ij + 2.580 darab ij
( 0.473)
2
R = 0.872
( 3.502 )
∧
σ = 0.658
( 4.147 )
( 3.679 )

∧
p = 0.823
(30.187)

 



‫اﳋﺎﲤﺔ‬
 
- ’‘-

- 
 -


 
 

 
 




 
 
 

 

‫اﳌﺮاﺟﻊ‬
‫ اﳌﺮاﺟﻊ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬: ‫أوﻻ‬
-‫ ﻓﺎﻳﺰ إﺑﺮاﻫﻴﻢ‬،‫اﳊﺒﻴﺐ‬
 
،١‫ ﻋﺎﺑﺪﻳﻦ أﲪﺪ‬،‫ﺳﻼﻣﺔ‬
 -٢ 
‫ ﳏﺒﻮب‬،‫اﳊﻖ‬
 
‫ اﳌﺮاﺟﻊ اﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬: ‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎﹰ‬
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Journal of Economics, vol 105 (1990), pp 50126
Bhagwatti, J “Poverty and Public Policy”, World Development, vol 16, 5(1988), pp 539-55
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

Streeten, P . “First Things First Meeting Basic Human Needs in the Developing Countries”,
Oxford University Press 1981 
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
‫اﳌﻠﺤــﻖ‬
: ‫دول اﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬

 
  :‫ دول اﳋﻠﻴﺞ اﻟﻌﺮﰊ‬:‫آﺳﻴﺎ‬
  :‫دول ﻋﺮﺑﻴﺔ آﺳﻴﻮﻳﺔ أﺧﺮى‬
  : ‫دول ﻏﺮب آﺳﻴﻮﻳﺔ‬
  : ‫دول ﺷﺮق آﺳﻴﻮﻳﺔ‬
  : (‫ دول ﻋﺮﺑﻴﺔ )ﴰﺎل إﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ‬:‫أﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ‬
   : (‫دول أﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺔ أﺧﺮى)ﺟﻨﻮب اﻟﺼﺤﺮاء‬


Basic Needs and Income Level in Muslim Countries
ABD ALMAHMOUD M ABD ALRAHMAN
Professor
Department of Economics
King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
ABSTRACT. Would Muslim countries’ interest in satisfying the basic needs of their citizens
have a negative impact on income level, as asserted by critics of Basic Needs approach?
This paper addresses the question empirically by selecting a sample of 19 Muslim countries
and taking for the years 1970 – 90 a set of social indicators related to fulfillment of basic
needs, which including life expectancy at birth, infant mortality and primary education
Included also were some economic indicators such as investment to income ratio and the
volume of external trade.

Several models were used, including single country time-series and pooled regressions.
The overall conclusion of our econometric analysis is that fulfillment of basic needs has no
clear negative impact on per capita income level. The best variables explaining what level
were infant mortality and primary education (among the social variables) and investment
(among the economic variables). These conclusions underscore the conten-tion of no
conflict between rapid economic growth and need fulfillment, and support an earlier
conclusion of Dr. Al-Habeeb for Pakistan and Morocco.