‫ﺇﺳﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻭﻓﻖ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻓﱰﺍﺽ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻻ�ﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻼﺕ‪:‬‬
‫™‬
‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺀ ﻭﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺳﻘﺎﻁ )ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ(‪.‬‬
‫™‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﰲ ﺳﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﺴﻮﺑﺔ ﻻ�ﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺀ )ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎ�ﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ(‪.‬‬
‫™‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌـﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﳌﻔﱰﺿـﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑـﺘﺔ ﻟـﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻻ�ﺘﺎﺟـﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑـﺘﺔ ﺧـﻼﻝ ﻓـﱰﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳـﻘﺎﻁ ﺣﺴـﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻄـﺎﻉ )ﺗﻘﺪﻳـﺮﺍﺕ ﻣـﻦ ﺣﺴـﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﳓـﺪﺍﺭ ﺃﻭ ﻃﺮﻕ‬
‫™‬
‫ﺃﺧﺮﻯ(‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ‪:‬‬
‫™‬
‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍ�ﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﺳﻨﺔ ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﻣﻊ ﳕﻮ ﲟﻌﺪﻝ ﻫﻨﺪﺳﻲ ﺳﻨﻮﻱ‪.‬‬
‫)‪LP (i, t + 5) = LP (i, t ).(1 + GRLP (i, t + 5‬‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﻭﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪I….1‬‬
‫‪i‬‬
‫ﺳﻨﺔ ﺑﺪﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ‬
‫‪t‬‬
‫‪t +5‬‬
‫ﺳﻨﺔ ﻫﺪﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ‬
‫ﺇ�ﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬
‫‪LP‬‬
‫‪GRLP‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﳕﻮ ﺇ�ﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬
‫)ﺍ�ﻈﺮ ﺍﳌﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﻠﺤﻖ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪.(2‬‬
‫™‬
‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ )ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻇﻴﻒ( ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ‪:‬‬
‫)‪EM (i, t + 5) = VA(i, t + 5) / LP (i, t + 5‬‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚ‪:‬‬
‫‪EM‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫‪VA‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬
‫‪LP‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﲨﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫‪I‬‬
‫)‪EM (t + 5) = ∑ EM (i, t + 5‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ )ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ(‪:‬‬
‫‪IP‬‬
‫)‪EMP (t + 5) = ∑ EM (i, t + 5‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬
‫‪IP + IS‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻲ )ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ(‪:‬‬
‫)‪∑ EM (i, t + 5‬‬
‫‪i = IP +1‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ )ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ(‪:‬‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚ‪:‬‬
‫‪IP‬‬
‫‪IS‬‬
‫= )‪EMS (t + 5‬‬
‫‪I‬‬
‫)‪∑ EM (i, t + 5‬‬
‫= )‪EMT (t + 5‬‬
‫‪i = IP + IS +1‬‬
‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﱄ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻮﻱ‪.‬‬
‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻮﺳﻌﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﳐﺘﺼﺮﺓ ﻛﺎﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﱄ ‪) P‬ﻛﺎﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ( ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻮﻱ ‪) S‬ﻛﺎﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ(‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﻲ ‪) T‬ﻛﺎﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ(‪.‬‬
‫™‬
‫ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻻﲨﺎﱄ‪:‬‬
‫™‬
‫ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ‪:‬‬
‫) ‪EMGR = EM (t + 5) − EM (t‬‬
‫) ‪EMPGR = EMP(t + 5) − EMP(t‬‬
‫) ‪EMSGR = EMS (t + 5) − EMS (t‬‬
‫) ‪EMTGR = EMT (t + 5) − EMT (t‬‬
‫™‬
‫ﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﻲ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺯﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ) ‪: (T , S , P‬‬
‫)‪% EMP(t + 5) = EMP(t + 5) / EM (t + 5‬‬
‫)‪% EMS (t + 5) = EMS (t + 5) / EM (t + 5‬‬
‫)‪% EMT (t + 5) = EMT (t + 5) / EM (t + 5‬‬
‫™‬
‫ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﰲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫]‬
‫[‬
‫‪GGREM = (EM (t + 5) / EM (t ) )5 − 1 ⋅ 100‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪EGREM = [(Ln{EM (t + 5) / EM (t )})/ 5]⋅ 100‬‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚ‪:‬‬
‫‪GGREM‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﻇﻒ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳋﻤﺲ‬
‫‪EGREM‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻱ ﺍﻷﺳﻲ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﻇﻒ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳋﻤﺲ‬
‫‪Ln‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻏﺎﺭﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬
‫™‬
‫ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤــﻮ ﰲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨـﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﻲ )ﺍﳌﻌــﺪﻝ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻲ( )ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﱄ ‪ P‬ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻮﻱ ‪ S‬ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﻲ ‪:( T‬‬
‫]‬
‫[‬
‫‪GGREMP = (EMP(t + 5) / EMP(t ) )5 − 1 ⋅ 100‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫]‬
‫[‬
‫‪GGREMS = (EMS (t + 5) / EMS (t ) )5 − 1 ⋅ 100‬‬
‫]‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫[‬
‫‪GGREMT = (EMT (t + 5) / EMT (t ) )5 − 1 ⋅ 100‬‬
‫ﻣﺜــــﺎﻝ‪:‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫ﻟﺪﻳــــــــﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﺒــــــــﻴﺎ�ﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟــــــــﻴﺔ ﻋــــــــﻦ ﺍﻻﺳــــــــﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﰲ ﺍﻟــــــــﺒﻠﺪ ﺱ ﻟﻠﺴــــــــﻨﻮﺍﺕ ‪ 1991‬ﻭ‪) 2000‬ﺍﳉــــــــﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗــــــــﻢ ‪.(5‬‬
‫ﻛﻤـــــــﺎ ﻟﺪﻳـــــــﻨﺎ ﻣﺼـــــــﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻘـــــــﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀـــــــﺎﻓﺔ ﻟـــــ ـﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻟـــــــﺒﻠﺪ ﻟﻠﺴـــــــﻨﻮﺍﺕ ‪ 1991‬ﻭ‪ 2000‬ﻭﺇﺳـــــــﻘﺎﻃﺎﲥﺎ )ﺍﺳـــــــﺘﻌﻤﻠﻨﺎ ﻟـــــ ـﺬﻟﻚ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺴـــــــﻴﻂ‪ .‬ﺩﺍﻟـــــــﺔ ‪ Growth‬ﰲ ﺑـــــــﺮﳎﻴﺔ ‪ .(excel‬ﻛﻤـــــــﺎ ﻟﺪﻳـــــــﻨﺎ ﻣﺼـــــــﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻘـــــــﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀـــــــﺎﻓﺔ ﻟـــــ ـﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻟـــــــﺒﻠﺪ ﻟﻠﺴـــــــﻨﻮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﳋﻤﺴﻴﺔ ‪ 2010 ،2005‬ﻭ‪) 2015‬ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪.(6‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠــــــﻮﺏ ﺃﻭﺟــــــﺪ ﺗﻘﺪﻳــــــﺮﺍً ﻟﻠﻄﻠــــــﺐ ﻋﻠــــــﻰ ﺍﻟﻘــــــﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠــــــﺔ ﺍﳌﺪ�ــــــﻴﺔ ﻭﻓــــــﻖ ﺍﻓــــــﱰﺍﺽ ﳕــــــﻮ ﺍﻹ�ﺘﺎﺟــــــﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴــــــﺘﻘﺒﻞ‬
‫ﺑﺪﻻﻟﺔ ﺍﲡﺎﻩ ﳕﻮﻫﺎ ﰲ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ‪.2000 – 1991‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪(5‬‬
‫ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﺱ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ‪2000 - 1991‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺰراﻋﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ واﻟﺘﻌﺪﻳﻦ‬
‫اﻟﺒﻨﺎء واﻟﺘﺸﻴﻴﺪ‬
‫ﺗﺠﺎرة اﻟﺠﻤﻠﺔ واﻟﻤﻔﺮق‬
‫اﻟ ﻨﻘﻞ واﻟﻤﻮاﺻ ﻼت‬
‫واﻟﺘﺨﺰﻳﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤ ﺎل واﻟﺘﺄﻣ ﻴﻦ‬
‫واﻟﻌﻘﺎرات‬
‫اﻟﺨ ﺪﻣﺎت اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋ ﻴﺔ‬
‫واﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮع‬
‫‪1991‬‬
‫‪1442.4‬‬
‫‪591.8‬‬
‫‪702.7‬‬
‫‪739.7‬‬
‫‪1992‬‬
‫‪1475.3‬‬
‫‪614.2‬‬
‫‪721.5‬‬
‫‪763.9‬‬
‫‪1993‬‬
‫‪1508.2‬‬
‫‪636.4‬‬
‫‪740.4‬‬
‫‪788.1‬‬
‫‪1994‬‬
‫‪1541.1‬‬
‫‪658.9‬‬
‫‪759.2‬‬
‫‪812.4‬‬
‫‪1995‬‬
‫‪1574‬‬
‫‪681.3‬‬
‫‪778.1‬‬
‫‪836.6‬‬
‫‪1996‬‬
‫‪1606.9‬‬
‫‪703.5‬‬
‫‪796.9‬‬
‫‪860.8‬‬
‫‪1997‬‬
‫‪1639.8‬‬
‫‪725.9‬‬
‫‪815.8‬‬
‫‪885‬‬
‫‪1998‬‬
‫‪1672.7‬‬
‫‪748.4‬‬
‫‪834.6‬‬
‫‪909.3‬‬
‫‪1999‬‬
‫‪1705.6‬‬
‫‪771.6‬‬
‫‪853.5‬‬
‫‪933.5‬‬
‫‪2000‬‬
‫‪1738.5‬‬
‫‪793‬‬
‫‪872.3‬‬
‫‪957.7‬‬
‫‪240.4‬‬
‫‪250.3‬‬
‫‪260.2‬‬
‫‪270.1‬‬
‫‪280‬‬
‫‪289.8‬‬
‫‪299.7‬‬
‫‪309.6‬‬
‫‪319.5‬‬
‫‪329.4‬‬
‫‪32.3‬‬
‫‪34.1‬‬
‫‪36‬‬
‫‪37.8‬‬
‫‪39.6‬‬
‫‪41.5‬‬
‫‪43.3‬‬
‫‪45.1‬‬
‫‪47‬‬
‫‪48.8‬‬
‫‪873.7‬‬
‫‪927.8‬‬
‫‪981.8‬‬
‫‪1035.9‬‬
‫‪1090‬‬
‫‪1144‬‬
‫‪1198.1‬‬
‫‪1252.2‬‬
‫‪1306.2‬‬
‫‪1360.3‬‬
‫‪4623‬‬
‫‪4787.1‬‬
‫‪4951.1‬‬
‫‪5115.4‬‬
‫‪5279.6‬‬
‫‪5443.4‬‬
‫‪5607.6‬‬
‫‪5771.9‬‬
‫‪5936.9‬‬
‫‪6100‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪(6‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺑﺎﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻣﻼﻳﲔ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺰراﻋﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ واﻟﺘﻌﺪﻳﻦ‬
‫اﻟﺒﻨﺎء واﻟﺘﺸﻴﻴﺪ‬
‫ﺗﺠﺎرة اﻟﺠﻤﻠﺔ واﻟﻤﻔﺮق‬
‫اﻟ ﻨﻘﻞ واﻟﻤﻮاﺻ ﻼت‬
‫‪66227‬‬
‫واﻟﺘﺨﺰﻳﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤ ﺎل واﻟﺘﺄﻣ ﻴﻦ‬
‫‪17874‬‬
‫واﻟﻌﻘﺎرات‬
‫اﻟﺨ ﺪﻣﺎت اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋ ﻴﺔ‬
‫‪82717‬‬
‫واﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮع‬
‫‪690568‬‬
‫‪1991‬‬
‫‪182575‬‬
‫‪191254‬‬
‫‪43161‬‬
‫‪106760‬‬
‫‪1992‬‬
‫‪191293‬‬
‫‪197329‬‬
‫‪47526‬‬
‫‪118074‬‬
‫‪1993‬‬
‫‪213079‬‬
‫‪219378‬‬
‫‪8854‬‬
‫‪143222‬‬
‫‪1994‬‬
‫‪215813‬‬
‫‪231762‬‬
‫‪54868‬‬
‫‪146369‬‬
‫‪1995‬‬
‫‪225902‬‬
‫‪247403‬‬
‫‪58506‬‬
‫‪159882‬‬
‫‪1996‬‬
‫‪241508‬‬
‫‪266524‬‬
‫‪68101‬‬
‫‪164526‬‬
‫‪1997‬‬
‫‪276347‬‬
‫‪320714‬‬
‫‪73748‬‬
‫‪158341‬‬
‫‪1998‬‬
‫‪255932‬‬
‫‪349685‬‬
‫‪74893‬‬
‫‪152197‬‬
‫‪1999‬‬
‫‪308182‬‬
‫‪373630‬‬
‫‪76842‬‬
‫‪156345‬‬
‫‪2000‬‬
‫‪269806‬‬
‫‪365429‬‬
‫‪71237‬‬
‫‪161838‬‬
‫‪66898‬‬
‫‪69329‬‬
‫‪78639‬‬
‫‪95995‬‬
‫‪107366‬‬
‫‪113453‬‬
‫‪123016‬‬
‫‪122444‬‬
‫‪134869‬‬
‫‪18809‬‬
‫‪22971‬‬
‫‪26839‬‬
‫‪27981‬‬
‫‪28939‬‬
‫‪28093‬‬
‫‪30087‬‬
‫‪30774‬‬
‫‪36021‬‬
‫‪95399‬‬
‫‪94608‬‬
‫‪96872‬‬
‫‪97452‬‬
‫‪98890‬‬
‫‪100161‬‬
‫‪103618‬‬
‫‪108310‬‬
‫‪114694‬‬
‫‪735328‬‬
‫‪771441‬‬
‫‪851162‬‬
‫‪913121‬‬
‫‪975854‬‬
‫‪107085‬‬
‫‪7‬‬
‫‪108942‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪117652‬‬
‫‪7‬‬
‫‪115389‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‪:‬‬
‫ﳓﺴـــﺐ ﺇ�ﺘﺎﺟـــﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤـــﻞ ﺣﺴـــﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻄـــﺎﻉ ﻟﺴـــﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺳـــﺎﺱ ﻣـــﻦ ﺍﻟﺒـــﻴﺎ�ﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠـــﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺑﺘﻘﺴـــﻴﻢ ﺑـــﻴﺎ�ﺎﺕ ﺍﳉـــﺪﻭﻝ )‪ (6‬ﻋﻠـــﻰ ﺑـــﻴﺎ�ﺎﺕ‬
‫)‪(1‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ )‪ (5‬ﻟﻠﺴﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﻓﻨﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺍﻹ�ﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﳝﺜﻞ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ )‪� (7‬ﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﳓﺴـــﺐ ﺍﲡـــﺎﻩ ﳕـــﻮ ﺍﻹ�ﺘﺎﺟـــﻴﺔ )ﺑﺎﺳـــﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺩﺍﻟـــﺔ ‪ Growth‬ﰲ ﺑـــﺮﳎﻴﺔ ‪) .(excel‬ﻣﻼﺣﻈـــﺔ ﻛـــﺎﻥ ﳝﻜـــﻦ ﺇﺳـــﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻹ�ﺘﺎﺟـــﻴﺔ‬
‫)‪(2‬‬
‫ﺑـــﺄﻱ ﻃــﺮﻳﻖ ﺁﺧـــﺮ ﺭﻳﺎﺿـــﻲ ﻛﺘﻄﺒـــﻴﻖ ﲟﻌـــﺪﻝ ﳕـــﻮ ﺍﻹ�ﺘﺎﺟـــﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴـــﻨﻮﻱ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳـــﻲ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﲢﻜﻤـــﻲ ﺑـــﺎﻓﱰﺍﺽ ﺗﻐـــﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳـــﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟـــﺘﻘﺎ�ﺔ‬
‫ﻣـــﺜﻼ‪ .(‬ﻭﳝـــﺜﻞ ﺍﳉـــﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗـــﻢ )‪ (8‬ﻫـــﺬﻩ ﺍﻹﺳـــﻘﺎﻃﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﺴـــﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﻤﺴـــﻴﺔ ‪ .2015 ،2010 ،2005‬ﻭﻳ‪‬ﻼﺣـــﻆ ﰲ ﻫـــﺬﺍ ﺍﻟـــﺒﻠﺪ‬
‫ﺗﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﺇ�ﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺳﻘﺎﻁ ‪‬ﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺇﻥ ﺍﺧﺘﻠﻔﺖ ﺑﲔ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﻭﺁﺧﺮ‪.‬‬
‫�ﻘﺴـــﻢ ﺇﺳـــﻘﺎﻃﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘـــﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀـــﺎﻓﺔ )ﻣـــﻦ ﺍﳉـــﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗـــﻢ ‪ (6‬ﻋﻠـــﻰ ﺇﺳـــﻘﺎﻃﺎﺕ ﺍﻹ�ﺘﺎﺟـــﻴﺔ )ﺍﳉـــﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗـــﻢ ‪ (8‬ﻭﳝـــﺜﻞ ﺍﻟـــﻨﺎﺗﺞ )ﺍﳉـــﺪﻭﻝ‬
‫)‪(3‬‬
‫ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ (9‬ﺇﺳﻘﺎﻃﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﻴﺎً ﻭﻓﻘﺎً ﻟﻠﻔﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺏ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪(7‬‬
‫ﺇ�ﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﰲ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ‪2000 - 1991‬‬
‫أﻟﻮف اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺰراﻋﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ واﻟﺘﻌﺪﻳﻦ‬
‫اﻟﺒﻨﺎء واﻟﺘﺸﻴﻴﺪ‬
‫ﺗﺠﺎرة اﻟﺠﻤﻠﺔ واﻟﻤﻔﺮق‬
‫اﻟ ﻨﻘﻞ واﻟﻤﻮاﺻ ﻼت‬
‫واﻟﺘﺨﺰﻳﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺎل واﻟﺘﺄﻣﻴﻦ واﻟﻌﻘﺎرات‬
‫اﻟﺨ ﺪﻣﺎت اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋ ﻴﺔ‬
‫واﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮع‬
‫‪1991‬‬
‫‪126.5772‬‬
‫‪323.1734‬‬
‫‪61.4216‬‬
‫‪144.3288‬‬
‫‪1992‬‬
‫‪129.6638‬‬
‫‪321.2781‬‬
‫‪65.8711‬‬
‫‪154.5674‬‬
‫‪1993‬‬
‫‪141.2803‬‬
‫‪344.7171‬‬
‫‪11.9584‬‬
‫‪181.7307‬‬
‫‪1994‬‬
‫‪140.0383‬‬
‫‪351.7408‬‬
‫‪72.2708‬‬
‫‪180.1686‬‬
‫‪1995‬‬
‫‪143.521‬‬
‫‪363.1337‬‬
‫‪75.1908‬‬
‫‪191.1093‬‬
‫‪1996‬‬
‫‪150.2944‬‬
‫‪378.8543‬‬
‫‪85.4574‬‬
‫‪191.1315‬‬
‫‪1997‬‬
‫‪168.5248‬‬
‫‪441.8157‬‬
‫‪90.3996‬‬
‫‪178.9164‬‬
‫‪1998‬‬
‫‪153.0053‬‬
‫‪467.2435‬‬
‫‪89.7352‬‬
‫‪167.3782‬‬
‫‪1999‬‬
‫‪180.6883‬‬
‫‪484.2276‬‬
‫‪90.0316‬‬
‫‪167.4826‬‬
‫‪2000‬‬
‫‪155.1947‬‬
‫‪460.8184‬‬
‫‪81.6657‬‬
‫‪168.9861‬‬
‫‪275.4867‬‬
‫‪267.2713‬‬
‫‪266.4450‬‬
‫‪291.1477‬‬
‫‪342.8393‬‬
‫‪370.4831‬‬
‫‪378.5552‬‬
‫‪397.3385‬‬
‫‪383.2363‬‬
‫‪409.4384‬‬
‫‪553.3746‬‬
‫‪551.5836‬‬
‫‪638.0833‬‬
‫‪710.0265‬‬
‫‪706.5909‬‬
‫‪697.3253‬‬
‫‪648.7991‬‬
‫‪667.1175‬‬
‫‪654.766‬‬
‫‪738.1352‬‬
‫‪94.6744‬‬
‫‪102.8228‬‬
‫‪96.3617‬‬
‫‪93.5148‬‬
‫‪89.4055‬‬
‫‪86.4423‬‬
‫‪83.5998‬‬
‫‪82.7487‬‬
‫‪82.9199‬‬
‫‪84.3152‬‬
‫‪149.3766‬‬
‫‪153.6061‬‬
‫‪155.8120‬‬
‫‪166.3921‬‬
‫‪172.9527‬‬
‫‪179.2729‬‬
‫‪190.9653‬‬
‫‪188.7469‬‬
‫‪198.1719‬‬
‫‪189.163‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪(8‬‬
‫ﺍﻹ�ﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭﺓ‬
‫اﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺰراﻋﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ واﻟﺘﻌﺪﻳﻦ‬
‫اﻟﺒﻨﺎء واﻟﺘﺸﻴﻴﺪ‬
‫ﺗﺠﺎرة اﻟﺠﻤﻠﺔ واﻟﻤﻔﺮق‬
‫اﻟﻨﻘﻞ واﻟﻤﻮاﺻﻼت واﻟﺘﺨﺰﻳﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺎل واﻟﺘﺄﻣﻴﻦ واﻟﻌﻘﺎرات‬
‫اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺎت اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ واﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮع‬
‫‪2005‬‬
‫‪199.2582‬‬
‫‪628.1055‬‬
‫‪159.7645‬‬
‫‪188.0057‬‬
‫‪558.7346‬‬
‫‪810.4184‬‬
‫‪72.3682‬‬
‫‪235.8264‬‬
‫‪2010‬‬
‫‪232.9653‬‬
‫‪808.022‬‬
‫‪256.5354‬‬
‫‪197.0415‬‬
‫‪732.8586‬‬
‫‪907.4519‬‬
‫‪64.7312‬‬
‫‪277.0499‬‬
‫‪2015‬‬
‫‪272.3743‬‬
‫‪1039.474‬‬
‫‪411.9213‬‬
‫‪206.5116‬‬
‫‪961.2465‬‬
‫‪1016.104‬‬
‫‪57.9001‬‬
‫‪325.4794‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪(9‬‬
‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺰراﻋﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ واﻟﺘﻌﺪﻳﻦ‬
‫اﻟﺒﻨﺎء واﻟﺘﺸﻴﻴﺪ‬
‫ﺗﺠﺎرة اﻟﺠﻤﻠﺔ واﻟﻤﻔﺮق‬
‫اﻟﻨﻘﻞ واﻟﻤﻮاﺻﻼت واﻟﺘﺨﺰﻳﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺎل واﻟﺘﺄﻣﻴﻦ واﻟﻌﻘﺎرات‬
‫اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺎت اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ واﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮع‬
‫‪2005‬‬
‫‪1933.2‬‬
‫‪939.0‬‬
‫‪986.8‬‬
‫‪1110.5‬‬
‫‪394.9‬‬
‫‪62.1‬‬
‫‪1761.3‬‬
‫‪7187.8‬‬
‫‪2010‬‬
‫‪2144.3‬‬
‫‪1104.7‬‬
‫‪1112.7‬‬
‫‪1281.6‬‬
‫‪470.2‬‬
‫‪78.0‬‬
‫‪2249.9‬‬
‫‪8441.4‬‬
‫‪2015‬‬
‫‪2378.5‬‬
‫‪1299.7‬‬
‫‪1254.5‬‬
‫‪1479.1‬‬
‫‪559.9‬‬
‫‪98.0‬‬
‫‪2874.1‬‬
‫‪9943.8‬‬