‫ﺇﺳﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻼﺕ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﺼــــــﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺴــــــﻜﺎﻥ )‪ (pop‬ﻣــــــﻦ ﻋﻤــــــﺮ ‪ 10‬ﺳــــــﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﻭﻣــــــﺎ ﻓــــــﻮﻕ ﺣﺴــــــﺐ ﺍﳉــــــﻨﺲ ﻭﻓــــــﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤــــــﺮ‬
‫ﻋﻠـــــــﻰ ﺍﳌﺴـــــــﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟـــــــﻮﻃﲏ )ﻟﺴـــــــﻨﺔ ﺍﳍـــــــﺪﻑ ‪ .(t+5‬ﻣﻌـــــــﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻻﺳـــــــﻬﺎﻡ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘـــــــﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠـــــــﺔ ‪ LFPR‬ﻟﻔـــــــﺌﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤـــــــﺮ ﻣـــــــﻦ ‪ 10‬ﻓﻤـــــــﺎ ﻓـــــــﻮﻕ ﻭﺣﺴـــــــﺐ ﺍﳉـــــــﻨﺲ ﻋﻠـــــــﻰ ﺍﳌﺴـــــــﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟـــــــﻮﻃﲏ )ﻟﺴـــــــﻨﺔ ﺍﳍـــــــﺪﻑ ‪ (t+5‬ﻭﻫـــــــﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﳌــــــﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﺇﻣــــــﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜــــــﻮﻥ ﺟﺎﻫــــــﺰﺓ )ﻛﺈﺳــــــﻘﺎﻃﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴــــــﻜﺎﻥ( ﺃﻭ ﻣﻔﱰﺿــــــﺔ ﺑﺎﻋﺘــــــﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗــــــﻊ ﻭﻣــــــﺎ ﻳــــــﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻣــــــﻦ‬
‫ﺗﻐــــــﲑﺍﺕ ﻋﻠــــــﻰ ﳏــــــﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﻋﺎﻣــــــﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟــــــﺘﺎﱄ ﻓــــــﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻘــــــﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠــــــﺔ ﺣﺴــــــﺐ ﺍﻟﻔــــــﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤــــ ـﺮﻳﺔ ‪ ،a‬ﻭﺍﳉــــــﻨﺲ‬
‫‪s‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ‪ t+5‬ﲢﺴﺐ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‪:‬‬
‫)‪LF ( a, s, t + 5) = PoP ( a, s, t + 5).LFPR ( a, s, t + 5‬‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚ‪:‬‬
‫‪a‬‬
‫ﻫـﻲ ﺍﻟﻔـﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤـﺮﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 3‬ﺇﱃ ‪) 16‬ﺃﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ‪ 14-10‬ﺳﻨﺔ ﻭﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ‪ 75‬ﺳﻨﺔ ﻓﻤﺎ ﻓﻮﻕ( ﳝﻜﻦ‬
‫ﺇﺿـﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻔـﺌﺔ ‪ 2‬ﺇﻥ ﱂ ﻳﻜـﻦ ﻫـﻨﺎﻙ ﺟﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻷﻃﻔﺎﻝ ﺃﻭ ﺣﺬﻑ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ‪ 3‬ﺇﻥ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻗﻮﺍ�ﲔ ﲤﻨﻊ ﻋﻤﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻃﻔﺎﻝ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺳﻦ ﺍﻟــــ ‪ 15‬ﺳﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪s‬‬
‫ﻫﻲ ﻟﻠﺠﻨﺲ )ﺫﻛﻮﺭ ﻭﺇ�ﺎﺙ( ‪ 1‬ﻭ ‪. 2‬‬
‫‪t‬‬
‫ﺳﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ‪.‬‬
‫‪t +5‬‬
‫ﺳﻨﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﻘﺎﻁ ﺃﻭ ﺳﻨﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﻬﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳋﻄﺔ ﺍﳋﻤﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ )ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻌﻤﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﻟﻜﻞ ﲬﺲ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﻻﺣﻘﺔ(‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﳜـﺮﺝ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺃﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﳉﻨﺲ ﻭﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﰲ ﺳﻨﺔ ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ‪ t+5‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ )‪. LF (a, s, t + 5‬‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺑﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺴﻴﻄﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ‪:‬‬
‫)‪ (1‬ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ )ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﻭﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﳉﻨﺲ(‪.‬‬
‫‪32‬‬
‫)‪ (2‬ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺯﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﳌﻮﺳﻌﺔ )ﺷﺒﺎﺏ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻟﻐﲔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺴﻨﲔ(‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (3‬ﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ )ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﳉﻨﺲ ﻭﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﳌﻮﺳﻌﺔ( )�ﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﺌﻮﻳﺔ(‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (4‬ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﰲ ﺍﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ )ﺍﲨﺎﱄ ﻭﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﳉﻨﺲ( )ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻘﺔ(‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (5‬ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﰲ ﺍﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ )ﺍﻻﲨﺎﱄ ﻭﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﳉﻨﺲ ﻭﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﳌﻮﺳﻌﺔ( )�ﺴﺐ ﻣﺌﻮﻳﺔ(‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﻣﺬﻛﻮﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻠﺤﻖ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪.(1‬‬
‫ﲤﺮﻳﻦ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻟﺪﻳــــــﻨﺎ ﺍﳉــــــﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗــــــﻢ )‪ (1‬ﺍﻟــــــﺬﻱ ﻳــــــﺒﲔ ﺍﳍــــــﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤــــــﺮﻱ ﻟﻠﺴــــــﻜﺎﻥ ﰲ ﺍﻟــــــﺒﻠﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑــــــﻲ )ﺱ( ﺣﺴــــــﺐ‬
‫ﺍﳉــــــــﻨﺲ ﻟﻌــــــــﺎﻡ ‪ 2000‬ﻭﺍﺳــــــــﻘﺎﻃﺎﺗﻪ ﺣﺘــــــــﻰ ﺍﻟﻌــــــــﺎﻡ ‪ .2015‬ﻭﻛـــــــﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﳉــــــــﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗــــــــﻢ )‪ (2‬ﺍﻟــــــــﺬﻱ ﻳــــــــﺒﲔ‬
‫ﻣﻌــــــﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﳌﺴــــــﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤــــ ـﺮﻳﺔ ﰲ ﻗــــــﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤــــــﻞ ﻟﻠﺠﻨﺴــــــﲔ ﺍﳌﺸــــــﺎﻫﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﻔﱰﺿــــــﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠــــــﻮﺏ ﺇﳚــــــﺎﺩ ﺗﻘﺪﻳــــــﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﰲ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﻟﻠﻔﱰﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﻤﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪. 2015 – 2005 :‬‬
‫‪33‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪(1‬‬
‫ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﺱ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2000‬ﻭﺇﺳﻘﺎﻃﺎﲥﺎ ﻷﻋﻮﺍﻡ ‪2015 ،2010 ، 2005‬‬
‫)ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﻓﻤﺎ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺑﺎﻷﻟﻮﻑ(‬
‫ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ‬
‫‪2000‬‬
‫‪2005‬‬
‫‪2010‬‬
‫‪2015‬‬
‫ﺫﻛــﻮﺭ‬
‫‪14-10‬‬
‫‪1553.9‬‬
‫‪1799.6‬‬
‫‪2112.8‬‬
‫‪2344.9‬‬
‫‪19-15‬‬
‫‪1308.2‬‬
‫‪1543.1‬‬
‫‪1792.8‬‬
‫‪2106.0‬‬
‫‪24-20‬‬
‫‪1047.6‬‬
‫‪1287.9‬‬
‫‪1533.6‬‬
‫‪1783.4‬‬
‫‪29-25‬‬
‫‪830.3‬‬
‫‪1021.9‬‬
‫‪1278.5‬‬
‫‪1524.2‬‬
‫‪34-30‬‬
‫‪711.5‬‬
‫‪807.3‬‬
‫‪1015.2‬‬
‫‪1270.4‬‬
‫‪39-35‬‬
‫‪583.2‬‬
‫‪692.6‬‬
‫‪800.6‬‬
‫‪1005.8‬‬
‫‪44-40‬‬
‫‪417.2‬‬
‫‪567.0‬‬
‫‪683.1‬‬
‫‪791.1‬‬
‫‪49-45‬‬
‫‪299.7‬‬
‫‪402.3‬‬
‫‪556.2‬‬
‫‪670.9‬‬
‫‪54-50‬‬
‫‪234.9‬‬
‫‪287.6‬‬
‫‪390.2‬‬
‫‪538.6‬‬
‫‪59-55‬‬
‫‪170.1‬‬
‫‪220.1‬‬
‫‪272.7‬‬
‫‪371.3‬‬
‫‪64-60‬‬
‫‪153.9‬‬
‫‪155.3‬‬
‫‪202.5‬‬
‫‪251.1‬‬
‫‪69-65‬‬
‫‪126.9‬‬
‫‪132.3‬‬
‫‪136.4‬‬
‫‪179.6‬‬
‫‪74-70‬‬
‫‪93.2‬‬
‫‪101.3‬‬
‫‪108.0‬‬
‫‪112.1‬‬
‫‪+75‬‬
‫‪82.4‬‬
‫‪103.9‬‬
‫‪122.9‬‬
‫‪139.1‬‬
‫‪7612.7‬‬
‫‪9121.9‬‬
‫‪11005.2‬‬
‫‪13088.3‬‬
‫ﻣﺞ‬
‫ﺇ�ﺎﺙ‬
‫‪14-10‬‬
‫‪1487.7‬‬
‫‪1719.9‬‬
‫‪2016.9‬‬
‫‪2235.6‬‬
‫‪34‬‬
‫‪19-15‬‬
‫‪1264.9‬‬
‫‪1480.9‬‬
‫‪1717.2‬‬
‫‪2014.2‬‬
‫‪24-20‬‬
‫‪1019.3‬‬
‫‪1254.2‬‬
‫‪1476.9‬‬
‫‪1711.8‬‬
‫‪29-25‬‬
‫‪815.4‬‬
‫‪1007.1‬‬
‫‪1250.1‬‬
‫‪1471.5‬‬
‫‪34-30‬‬
‫‪684.5‬‬
‫‪804.6‬‬
‫‪1003.1‬‬
‫‪1244.7‬‬
‫‪39-35‬‬
‫‪571.1‬‬
‫‪676.4‬‬
‫‪799.2‬‬
‫‪997.7‬‬
‫‪44-40‬‬
‫‪427.9‬‬
‫‪562.9‬‬
‫‪669.6‬‬
‫‪793.8‬‬
‫‪49-45‬‬
‫‪314.6‬‬
‫‪419.8‬‬
‫‪554.8‬‬
‫‪661.5‬‬
‫‪54-50‬‬
‫‪252.5‬‬
‫‪306.4‬‬
‫‪411.8‬‬
‫‪544.1‬‬
‫‪59-55‬‬
‫‪193.1‬‬
‫‪243.0‬‬
‫‪297‬‬
‫‪399.6‬‬
‫‪64-60‬‬
‫‪174.1‬‬
‫‪182.3‬‬
‫‪230.9‬‬
‫‪283.5‬‬
‫‪69-65‬‬
‫‪143.1‬‬
‫‪157.9‬‬
‫‪167.4‬‬
‫‪213.3‬‬
‫‪74-70‬‬
‫‪105.3‬‬
‫‪121.5‬‬
‫‪136.4‬‬
‫‪145.8‬‬
‫‪+75‬‬
‫‪95.9‬‬
‫‪128.3‬‬
‫‪163.4‬‬
‫‪198.5‬‬
‫‪7549.2‬‬
‫‪9065.3‬‬
‫‪10894.5‬‬
‫‪12915.5‬‬
‫ﻣﺞ‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪(2‬‬
‫ﻣ‪‬ﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻹﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﺒﻠﺪ ﺱ‬
‫ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ‬
‫‪2000‬‬
‫‪2005‬‬
‫‪2010‬‬
‫‪2015‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺬﻛﻮﺭ‬
‫‪14-10‬‬
‫‪0.025‬‬
‫‪0.023‬‬
‫‪0.018‬‬
‫‪0.015‬‬
‫‪19-15‬‬
‫‪0.366‬‬
‫‪0.355‬‬
‫‪0.326‬‬
‫‪0.285‬‬
‫‪24-20‬‬
‫‪0.598‬‬
‫‪0.614‬‬
‫‪0.665‬‬
‫‪0.724‬‬
‫‪29-25‬‬
‫‪0.798‬‬
‫‪0.823‬‬
‫‪0.885‬‬
‫‪0.915‬‬
‫‪34-30‬‬
‫‪0.907‬‬
‫‪0.919‬‬
‫‪0.933‬‬
‫‪0.945‬‬
‫‪35‬‬
‫‪39-35‬‬
‫‪0.910‬‬
‫‪0.925‬‬
‫‪0.944‬‬
‫‪0.977‬‬
‫‪44-40‬‬
‫‪0.971‬‬
‫‪0.980‬‬
‫‪0.982‬‬
‫‪0.983‬‬
‫‪49-45‬‬
‫‪0.989‬‬
‫‪0.977‬‬
‫‪0.979‬‬
‫‪0.979‬‬
‫‪54-50‬‬
‫‪0.987‬‬
‫‪0.972‬‬
‫‪0.969‬‬
‫‪0.967‬‬
‫‪59-55‬‬
‫‪0.982‬‬
‫‪0.985‬‬
‫‪0.986‬‬
‫‪0.977‬‬
‫‪64-60‬‬
‫‪0.758‬‬
‫‪0.754‬‬
‫‪0.753‬‬
‫‪0.750‬‬
‫‪69-65‬‬
‫‪0.485‬‬
‫‪0.465‬‬
‫‪0.412‬‬
‫‪0.395‬‬
‫‪74-70‬‬
‫‪0.295‬‬
‫‪0.255‬‬
‫‪0.188‬‬
‫‪0.105‬‬
‫‪+75‬‬
‫‪0.139‬‬
‫‪0.112‬‬
‫‪0.087‬‬
‫‪0.044‬‬
‫ﺍﻹ�ﺎﺙ‬
‫‪14-10‬‬
‫‪0.004‬‬
‫‪0.004‬‬
‫‪0.003‬‬
‫‪0.002‬‬
‫‪19-15‬‬
‫‪0.120‬‬
‫‪0.115‬‬
‫‪0.109‬‬
‫‪0.102‬‬
‫‪24-20‬‬
‫‪0.315‬‬
‫‪0.333‬‬
‫‪0.347‬‬
‫‪0.382‬‬
‫‪29-25‬‬
‫‪0.307‬‬
‫‪0.355‬‬
‫‪0.380‬‬
‫‪0.405‬‬
‫‪34-30‬‬
‫‪0.338‬‬
‫‪0.370‬‬
‫‪0.399‬‬
‫‪0.430‬‬
‫‪39-35‬‬
‫‪0.335‬‬
‫‪0.362‬‬
‫‪0.382‬‬
‫‪0.412‬‬
‫‪44-40‬‬
‫‪0.340‬‬
‫‪0.365‬‬
‫‪0.392‬‬
‫‪0.447‬‬
‫‪49-45‬‬
‫‪0.339‬‬
‫‪0.381‬‬
‫‪0.398‬‬
‫‪0.445‬‬
‫‪54-50‬‬
‫‪0.188‬‬
‫‪0.202‬‬
‫‪0.263‬‬
‫‪0.315‬‬
‫‪59-55‬‬
‫‪0.182‬‬
‫‪0.198‬‬
‫‪0.242‬‬
‫‪0.302‬‬
‫‪64-60‬‬
‫‪0.070‬‬
‫‪0.078‬‬
‫‪0.087‬‬
‫‪0.102‬‬
‫‪69-65‬‬
‫‪0.038‬‬
‫‪0.045‬‬
‫‪0.062‬‬
‫‪0.087‬‬
‫‪74-70‬‬
‫‪0.030‬‬
‫‪0.032‬‬
‫‪0.035‬‬
‫‪0.045‬‬
‫‪+75‬‬
‫‪0.008‬‬
‫‪0.005‬‬
‫‪0.003‬‬
‫‪0.002‬‬
‫‪36‬‬
‫ﺍﳊﻞ‪:‬‬
‫ﻟﻘﺪ ﰎ ﰲ ﺇﺳﻘﺎﻁ ﻣ‪‬ﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﺮﺍﻋﺎﺓ ﻋﺪﺓ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﺮﺟﺢ ﺣﺼﻮﳍﺎ ﻭﻫﻲ‪:‬‬
‫™ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺺ ﻣ‪‬ﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﻷﻃﻔﺎﻝ )ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺟﻪ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻌﻤﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ﺍﻻﺑﺘﺪﺍﺋﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻮﻱ( ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻴﻮﺥ )ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﻋﺪ ﺍﳌﻘﻨﻦ(‬
‫™ ﺗﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﻗﻠﻴﻞ ﰲ ﺇﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺬﻛﻮﺭ ﰲ ﻓﱰﺓ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﺭ ‪.64-25‬‬
‫™ ﺗﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭﺍً ﰲ ﺇﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﺍﻹ�ﺎﺙ ﰲ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﺭ ‪ 20‬ﻓﻤﺎ ﻓﻮﻕ‪.‬‬
‫™ ﺍﻓﱰﺍﺽ ﻫﺠﺮﺓ ﺻﺎﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺻﻔﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻣـﺎ ﺇﺳـﻘﺎﻃﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴـﻜﺎﻥ ﻓﻬـﻲ ﻣﻌﻄﻰ ﻳﺴﻬﻞ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺑﺮﳎﻴﺎﺕ ﻋﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻣﺘﺎﺣﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻟﲔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﲔ ﻳﺘﻢ‬
‫ﺿـﺮﺏ ﻋـﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴـﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺴـﻘﻂ ﲟﻌـﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﳌﺴﻘﻂ ﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﳌﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ‪ /‬ﺍﳉﻨﺲ‪ /‬ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺳﻘﺎﻁ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭ�ﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻟﲔ )‪ (3‬ﻭ)‪.(4‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪(3‬‬
‫ﺑﻴﺎﻥ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺬﻛﻮﺭ ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2005‬ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ‬
‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﻘﻂ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﳌﺴﻘﻄﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬
‫‪14-10‬‬
‫‪1799.6‬‬
‫‪0.023‬‬
‫‪41.4‬‬
‫‪19-15‬‬
‫‪1543.1‬‬
‫‪0.355‬‬
‫‪547.8‬‬
‫‪24-20‬‬
‫‪1287.9‬‬
‫‪0.614‬‬
‫‪790.8‬‬
‫‪29-25‬‬
‫‪1021.9‬‬
‫‪0.823‬‬
‫‪841.1‬‬
‫‪34-30‬‬
‫‪807.3‬‬
‫‪0.919‬‬
‫‪741.9‬‬
‫‪39-35‬‬
‫‪692.6‬‬
‫‪0.925‬‬
‫‪640.6‬‬
‫‪44-40‬‬
‫‪567.0‬‬
‫‪0.980‬‬
‫‪555.7‬‬
‫‪49-45‬‬
‫‪402.3‬‬
‫‪0.977‬‬
‫‪393.0‬‬
‫‪54-50‬‬
‫‪287.6‬‬
‫‪0.972‬‬
‫‪279.5‬‬
‫‪37‬‬
‫‪59-55‬‬
‫‪220.1‬‬
‫‪0.985‬‬
‫‪216.7‬‬
‫‪64-60‬‬
‫‪155.3‬‬
‫‪0.754‬‬
‫‪117.1‬‬
‫‪69-65‬‬
‫‪132.3‬‬
‫‪0.465‬‬
‫‪61.5‬‬
‫‪74-70‬‬
‫‪101.3‬‬
‫‪0.255‬‬
‫‪25.8‬‬
‫‪+75‬‬
‫‪103.9‬‬
‫‪0.112‬‬
‫‪11.6‬‬
‫ﻣﺞ‬
‫‪9121.9‬‬
‫‪0.577‬‬
‫‪5264.5‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‪ :‬ﳏﺴﻮﺏ ﺑﺪﻻﻟﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻟﲔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﻴﲔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪(4‬‬
‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ )ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ( ﻟﻠﺒﻠﺪ ﺱ ﰲ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﲬﺴﻴﺔ ‪) 2015-2005‬ﺑﺎﻷﻟﻮﻑ(‬
‫ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬
‫‪2000‬‬
‫‪2005‬‬
‫‪2010‬‬
‫‪2015‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺬﻛﻮﺭ‬
‫‪14-10‬‬
‫‪38.8‬‬
‫‪41.4‬‬
‫‪38.0‬‬
‫‪35.2‬‬
‫‪19-15‬‬
‫‪478.8‬‬
‫‪547.8‬‬
‫‪584.5‬‬
‫‪600.2‬‬
‫‪24-20‬‬
‫‪626.5‬‬
‫‪790.8‬‬
‫‪1019.8‬‬
‫‪1291.1‬‬
‫‪29-25‬‬
‫‪662.5‬‬
‫‪841.1‬‬
‫‪1131.4‬‬
‫‪1394.6‬‬
‫‪34-30‬‬
‫‪645.3‬‬
‫‪741.9‬‬
‫‪947.2‬‬
‫‪1200.5‬‬
‫‪39-35‬‬
‫‪530.7‬‬
‫‪640.6‬‬
‫‪755.7‬‬
‫‪982.6‬‬
‫‪44-40‬‬
‫‪405.1‬‬
‫‪555.7‬‬
‫‪670.8‬‬
‫‪777.7‬‬
‫‪49-45‬‬
‫‪296.4‬‬
‫‪393.0‬‬
‫‪544.5‬‬
‫‪656.9‬‬
‫‪54-50‬‬
‫‪231.8‬‬
‫‪279.5‬‬
‫‪378.1‬‬
‫‪520.9‬‬
‫‪59-55‬‬
‫‪167.0‬‬
‫‪216.7‬‬
‫‪268.9‬‬
‫‪362.7‬‬
‫‪64-60‬‬
‫‪116.7‬‬
‫‪117.1‬‬
‫‪152.5‬‬
‫‪188.3‬‬
‫‪69-65‬‬
‫‪61.5‬‬
‫‪61.5‬‬
‫‪56.2‬‬
‫‪70.9‬‬
‫‪38‬‬
‫‪74-70‬‬
‫‪27.5‬‬
‫‪25.8‬‬
‫‪20.3‬‬
‫‪11.8‬‬
‫‪+75‬‬
‫‪11.4‬‬
‫‪11.6‬‬
‫‪10.7‬‬
‫‪6.1‬‬
‫‪4300.1‬‬
‫‪5264.5‬‬
‫‪6578.6‬‬
‫‪8099.5‬‬
‫ﻣﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻹ�ﺎﺙ‬
‫‪14-10‬‬
‫‪6.0‬‬
‫‪6.9‬‬
‫‪6.1‬‬
‫‪4.5‬‬
‫‪19-15‬‬
‫‪151.8‬‬
‫‪170.3‬‬
‫‪187.2‬‬
‫‪205.4‬‬
‫‪24-20‬‬
‫‪321.1‬‬
‫‪417.6‬‬
‫‪512.5‬‬
‫‪653.9‬‬
‫‪29-25‬‬
‫‪250.3‬‬
‫‪357.5‬‬
‫‪475.0‬‬
‫‪596.0‬‬
‫‪34-30‬‬
‫‪231.3‬‬
‫‪297.7‬‬
‫‪400.2‬‬
‫‪535.2‬‬
‫‪39-35‬‬
‫‪191.3‬‬
‫‪244.8‬‬
‫‪305.3‬‬
‫‪411.0‬‬
‫‪44-40‬‬
‫‪145.5‬‬
‫‪205.5‬‬
‫‪262.5‬‬
‫‪354.8‬‬
‫‪49-45‬‬
‫‪106.6‬‬
‫‪160.0‬‬
‫‪220.8‬‬
‫‪294.4‬‬
‫‪54-50‬‬
‫‪47.5‬‬
‫‪61.9‬‬
‫‪108.3‬‬
‫‪171.4‬‬
‫‪59-55‬‬
‫‪35.1‬‬
‫‪48.1‬‬
‫‪71.9‬‬
‫‪120.7‬‬
‫‪64-60‬‬
‫‪12.2‬‬
‫‪14.2‬‬
‫‪20.1‬‬
‫‪28.9‬‬
‫‪69-65‬‬
‫‪5.4‬‬
‫‪7.1‬‬
‫‪10.4‬‬
‫‪18.6‬‬
‫‪74-70‬‬
‫‪3.2‬‬
‫‪3.9‬‬
‫‪4.8‬‬
‫‪6.6‬‬
‫‪+75‬‬
‫‪0.8‬‬
‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬
‫‪0.4‬‬
‫ﻣﺞ‬
‫‪1508.1‬‬
‫‪1996.2‬‬
‫‪2585.5‬‬
‫‪3401.7‬‬
‫ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬
‫‪5808.2‬‬
‫‪7266.7‬‬
‫‪9164.1‬‬
‫‪11501.2‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ )‪ (4‬ﻳ‪‬ﻤﻜﻦ ﺑﻴﺴﺮ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﳌﻮﺳﻌﺔ )ﺷﺒﺎﺏ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻟﻐﲔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺴﻨﲔ( ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻭﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﳌﺬﻛﻮﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺍ ﳌﻠﺤﻖ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪.(1‬‬
‫‪39‬‬