National accounts:
recent achievements and new perspectives
Eurostat Conference - National Accounts 2009
Brussels, 16 September 2009
Walter Radermacher, Eurostat
Chief Statistician of the EU
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The world in one figure?
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The Economic System in Statistics:
A “flat” projection
space
stocks
investment
depreciation
flows
export
import
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time
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SNA: statistical model rooted in economic theory
“Macro-Economic Accounts”
Mixed approach: Observation based + imputations/models
Parameters, e.g.
– Market economy
• Transactions
• Market prices
– National
– Periodical
– Property rights
– Sectoral
– Products and « Tangibles » in focus
Models, e.g.
– Elimination of price effects
– Seasonal adjustment
– Depreciation / consumption of gross fixed capital
Strengths: Flows – Weakness: Stocks
Quality profile of Official Statistics: Code of Practice, Convention
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The Pyramid of Statistical Information:
Composite indicators
Indicator
(sets)
Specific
Purpose
Accounting
systems
MultiPurpose
Primary information
from surveys, registers etc.
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Strengths and weaknesses are well known
Extensions of the conceptual model have always
been needed.
The present challenges, which create plausible
requests, are for example
– the shift towards knowledge societies (capitalisation
of R&D),
– demographic changes (pension schemes),
– or the increased relevance of nature as an input factor
Fundamental dilemma:
– not every important element of reality is measurable
– not every measurement can be carried out with the
quality of Official Statistics.
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Best way to proceed
Combination of a smooth and cautious revision of
the so called "core" of national accounts
supplemented by so called "satellite" accounts
which can include elements with another quality
profile
Same priority and allocation of resources
Different user groups and purposes
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Recent developments
2003 the United Nations Statistical Commission decided
to update SNA 1993
– Reflect new economic developments such as
globalisation, progress in methodological research and
advances in users' needs
– Coordination by Inter-Secretariat Working Group on
National Accounts (ISWGNA): United Nations, IMF,
OECD, World Bank, Eurostat (chair since 2008 and
coordination with MS)
– 44 methodology-related recommendations
– Advisory Experts' Group (AEG): 20 national accountants
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Recommendations
Rooted in a globalised economy, one in which new financial
products develop
Links between government and public enterprises
Matters such as intellectual property products, research and
development, innovations in financial markets, goods sent
abroad for processing and the future burden of pensions in
ageing societies
Impact on the main aggregates of the system, such as Gross
Domestic Product;
Particular efforts to harmonise the SNA and the new Balance
of Payments Manual.
Consistency with the System Integrated Environmental and
Economic Accounting (SEEA 2003).
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Evolving methodology
AEG and the “High Level Forum”: the new SNA 2008
methodology allows to cover all State interventions in
the market, in response to the crisis, that have been
recorded to date
Task forces will continue to discuss, at international
level, important issues such as emission permits aimed
at combating environmental damage, and the treatment
of insurance, for example after disasters
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Revision of ESA
SNA revision is being carried over to the ESA
Specific needs in a European context, in particular own
resources, the excessive deficit procedure and the
Structural Funds
Intensive discussion with NSIs
Commission's proposal for a revised ESA: June 2010
– revised methodology
– data transmission programme
Regulation of European Parliament and Council: 2012
Implementation: 2014
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Long term directions
National accounts data must be relevant and timely, but first of
all they must be reliable
– quality of basic data: quality assurance with external control tools
(EU procedures as a benchmark)
Modelling techniques supplementing statistical observation
(test in “laboratories” / satellite accounts)
Development of global economic accounts: better coordination
between producers of statistics at world level, in relation to
exchange of data and metadata
Developments related to the norms of business accounting,
integrating company accounts data in national accounts
calculations in full respect of the fundamental principles of
national accounting
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Going further
Enlargement of balance sheet accounts (analysis of
wealth)
Sustainable development: simultaneously economic,
social and environmental aspects; long-term / short-term
“GDP and Beyond” Communication of the Commission:
(http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2009:0433:FIN:EN:PDF)
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Actions to better monitor the present situation
Action plan:
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=3
273,75548807&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL#5)
Medium term: group ensuring the link between private
accounting and national accounting
The cooperation between NSIs should be developed at
world level
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Statistic users and producers: Interactions
Users of statistics
information need
Producers of statistics
discussion / definition
• perception patterns
• programmes
• products
conducting of
processes,
provision of
products and
services
use
knowledge
statistical
information
communication
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work
system
statistical
data + metadata
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Information needs: How are they defined?
Politics
Public
Opinion
Statistics
Science
Institutional setup
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What is important?
Reputation of Official Statistics
Quality
Trust
Statistical Literacy
Communication
Resources
Efficiency of processes
Cooperation in the European Statistical System
Cooperation between ESS and ESCB
A vision for European Statistics
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2009:0404:FIN:EN:HTML
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