ﻡ ١ ﳐﺘﺎﺭ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻣﺘﻮﱄ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ-١ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻹﺳﺮﺍﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻲ ﺎﺣﺎﻟﻴ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻹﺳﺮﺍﻉ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﻬﻼﻛﻲ ﺃﺣﻜﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ-٢ ﺑﺈﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺎﺀ ﻣِﻨﻜﹸﻢﻦ ﺍﻟﹾﺄﻏﹾﻨِﻴ ﻴﻭﻟﹶﺔﹰ ﺑﻜﹸﻮﻥﹶ ﺩﻻ ﻳ ٍﺩﺍﺋﻤﺔ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻲ-٣ ﻃﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ The Absolute Income Hypothesis The Relative Income Hypothesis The Permanent Income Hypothesis The Life-Cycle Hypothesis postulates Consumption Catch-Up Hypothesis ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ An Aggregation Problem ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﻣﻘـﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻠـﻲ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻖ١/٣ t tYC C t = f (Yt) dC < 1 dY d C dY ( Y ) < 0 d dC ( ) < 0 dY dY C dC > Y dY dInC 0 < < 1 dInY 0 < F. Shapiro, Macro economic analysis, 5th ed. (N.Y: Harcourt, 1982), 356-359. J. M. Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (New York: Harcourt, Brace 1936), 92-97. ﺯﻳـﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ٢/٣ Duesenberry Peak Income J. D. Duesenbery: Income, Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behavior (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1949), p. 45. C = (c − b) Y + bY C Y Y C = cY a = c − bY C = a + bY S =aY+b Y Y C Y = 1(a + b) Y Y a Y YS (b ≤ 0) (α > 0) = b Keep up with the Joneses Emulative Purchases Shapiro ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺋﻢ- ٣/٣ Friedman Permanent Income C = bY P Y P C dC = =b Y dY Transitory Yt = Y P + Y T Y T Ct = C P + CT Y P = W0 Y + W1Y−1 + W2 Y−2 + ... + Wn Y−n Milton Friedman,. A Theory of the Consumption Function, Princeton: National Bureau of Economic Research (1957), Chapter 1-3, 6, 9. 0 < W1 < 1 − 1 W 1 W0 > W1 > W2 > ...Wn C = cY = cW0 Y + cW1Y−1 + ... + cWn Y−n P (cW ) c 0 c > cW0 Shapiro Shapiro ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﳊﻴﺎﺓ-٤/٣ 1...T U = U(C1 , C2 ,...CT ) C t = aA t −1 + bYt + cYte Ye A Ando, Modigliani Ye C t = a1A t −1 + a 2 Yt F. Modigliani, and R. Brumberg, Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function in: Kurihara, K. K. Post-Keynesian Economics, New Brunswick, N.J.: Rutgers University Press (1954) pp. 381-396. F. Modigliani, and A. Ando, Tests of the Life-Cycle Hypothesis of Savings, Bulletin of the Oxford Institute of Statistics, Vol. 19, No. 2 (1960), pp. 49-67. A. Ando, and F. Modigliani, The Life-Cycle Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implication and Tests, American Economic Review, Vol. 53, No. 1 (March 1963), pp. 55-84 Shapiro ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻹﺳﺮﺍﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻲ-٥/٣ The Demographic Transition Gap Theory Logistic 0, Yt1 Yt1, Yt2 Yt1- Yt2Yn dC >0 dY d dC ( ) > 0 for Y < Yn dY dY d dC ( ) < 0 for Y > Yn dY dY Yn C = Y a e − b / Y ;0 < a < 1; b > 0 APC C = Y a e −b / Y > 0 Y MPC = dC = (a + b / Y)Y a e −b / Y > 0 dY d dC 1 ( ) = 2 e − b / Y [a (a − 1)Y a + 2b(a − 1)Y + b 2 ] dY dY Y APC = 2 dC =0 dY 2 a (a − 1)Y a + 2b(a − 1)Y + b 2 = 0 Yn = − b (1 + 1 − a a a −1 b > 1,0 < a < 1 d (MPC) > for Y < Yn dY d (MPC) < for Y > Yn dY Yn Yn Yt1- Yt2 ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺳﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻢ ﺍﳌﻘﻄﻌﻲ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ-٦/٣ Time Series Data Cross-Section family Data Duesenberry Friedman Modigliani, Ando ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ-٤ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻖ-١/٤ (1)C t = a 0 + a 1Yt + u1t (2)C t = b0 + b1Yt + b 2 t + u 2 t (3)InCt = c 0 + c1InYt + u 3 t ; c0 = Inc (4)InC t = g 0 + g1InYt + g 2 t + u 4 t ; g 0 = Ing ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ-٢/٤ (5) Ct Y = a 0 − a1 t + v1t Yt Yt (6) Ct Y − Yt = b 0 − b1 t + v2t Yt Yt (7)C t = h 0 + h 1Yt + h t C t −1 + v 3t (8)C t = a 1Yt + a 2c t −1 + w 1t ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺋﻢ-٣/٤ (9)InC t = b1InYt + b 2 InCt −1 + w 2 t (10)C t = a1Yt + a 2 Yt −1 + a 3C t −1 + e1t ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﳊﻴﺎﺓ-٤/٤ (11)InCt = b1InYt + b 2 Inyt −1 + b3 InCt −1 + e 2 t ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻹﺳﺮﺍﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻲ-٥/٤ (12)InCt = aInYt − b / Yt + σ t C t = t Yt = t Yt = t u t , v t , w t , E t , σ t Smithies, Woytinsk, Bennion, L.Paridiso J. Mosak, Forecasting Postwar Demand III, Econometrica, Vol. 14, No. 1 (January 1945), pp. 25-53. National Budget for Full Employment, Washington: National Planning Association (1945). E.G. Bennion: The Consumption Function Cyclically Variable, Review of Economics and Statistics, (November 1946), pp. 21-35. W. Woytinsky, The Relationship Between Consumer's Expenditures Savings and Disposable Income, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 28, No. 1 (February 1946), pp. 112-132. A. Smithies, Forecasting Postwar Demand I, Econometrica, Vol. 14, No. 3 (January 1945). pp. 1-14. C t = cYt c1 C t = gYt g1eg 2 t g1 c1 Kuznets St = a 1 − Ydt + b Ydt Yd t Yd ,t St Ct S = 1− Ydt Ydt = 1 − (a 1 Ydt + b) Yd = a 0 − a1 Ydt Yd Ferder J. Duesenberry, Income-Consumption Relations and Their Implications, in Income, Employment and Public Policy: Essays in Honor of Alvin Hansen, New York:, Norton (1948), pp. 54-81. J. Duesenberry, Income, Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behavior. Cambridge: Harvard University Press (1949). p. 49. R. Ferber, A Study of Aggregate Consumption Functions, National Bureau of Economic Research, Technical Paper, No. 8, (1953). St = b1 Ydt − Yd + b 2 Ydt Ydt Brown h1 h1 1− h2 (YP ) = b(Yt + e −( b−a ) Yt −1 + e −2 ( b −a ) Yt −2 + ... + e −T ( b −a ) Yt −T Koyck Transformation λ = e − ( b −a ) C t = gb( Yt + λYt −1 + λ2 Yt −2 + ... + λN Yt − N C t −1 = gb(Yt −1 + λYt −2 + ... + λ Yt − N N −1 ∴ λC t −1 = gb(λYt −1 + λ2 Yt −2 + ... + λN Yt − N C t − λC t −1 = gbYt a 2 = λ, a 2 = g b Ct = a1Yt + a 2 Ct−1 T. M. Brown, Habit Persistence and Lags in Consumer Behavior, Econometrica, Vol. 20, No. 31, (June 1952), pp. 250-264. M. Friedman, A Theory of the Consumption Function, Princeton: National Bureau of Economic Research (1957), Chapters 1-3, 6, 9. M. Friedman, The Concept of Horizon in the Permanent Income Hypothesis, in: Studies in Mathematical Economics and Econometrics (Stanford, Calif. Stanford, 1963). non-constant response A Transformation Y(A) assetsDavidson et al C A t = A t −1 + Yt − C t C t − C t −1 = a 0 (Yt −1 − C t −1 ) + a 1 (Yt − Yt −1 )u t * C t = a1Yt + (a 0 − a 1 )Yt −1 + (1 − a 0 )C t −1 + u t * u t * = u t − u t −1 C t = a Yt + a 2Yt −1 + a 3C t −1 + u1t 1 a Ct = Yt eb / Yt InC t = aInYt − b / Yt Money Illusion PYC J. H. Davidson, D. F. Hendry, , F. Srba and S. Yeo, Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship Between Consumers Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom, Economic Journal, Vol. 88, No. 3(1978), pp. 421-439. C Y = b P P P C = bY C = a + b Y P P P C = aP + bY Observations C = f (Yd ) C = f (Y − T ) T T = g( Y) C = f (Y − g(Y) :) = h ( Y) dC = f (Y − g(Y))(1 − g′(Y )) = h′(Y) dY The Number of Observations h D-W Serial Correlation ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺩﻭﺍﻝ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺻﺮﺓ-٥ I.M.F.: International Financial Statistics, 1984 Year book. ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴـﺔ Aggregate Private Gross CConsumption YDomestic Product t The Coefficient of Determination D-WF The Lagged Dependent Variable D-WD-Wh h )ﺃ( ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻭﺇﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻮﻛﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ba a "t" )ﺏ( ﻣﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﻮﺿﺤﻬﺎ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ The Critical "t" Value F , R2 )ﺟـ( ﻗﻴﻢ F , R2 Other things being the sameF h, D-W t FR2 h, D-W :ﺃﻭﻻﹰ Habit persistence FerberDuesenberry :ﺎﺛﺎﻧﻴ YtMulticollinearity tYt-1 F , R2 F , R2 :ﺛﺎﻟﺜﹰﺎ A time trend ﺎﺭﺍﺑﻌ :ﺎﺧﺎﻣﺴ Yn d (MPC) > 0 dY d (MPC) < 0 dY Yn Yn Yn Yn ( d C = 0) 2 dY 2 Yn R2 , F R2 , F ﻗﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻲ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ-٦ ﻭﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺑﻮﱐ Showing off ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺑﻮﱐ dC >0 dY dS <0 dY C+S= Y ﻗﺪ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ-٧ A Built-in-Policy ﺭﲟـﺎ ﻗﺪ ﻗﺪ The Consumption Catch-up Hypothesis ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻲ ﻓﻠﻦ ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺷﻜﺮ ﻭﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺟﻊ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ: ﺃﻭﻻ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺁﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﱘ ، ﳏﻤﺪ ﺃﻧﺲ،ﺍﻟﺰﺭﻗﺎﺀ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻲ،ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺑﻮﱐ ﳏﻤﺪ ﺃﲪﺪ،ﺻﻘﺮ ، ﻳﻮﺳﻒ،ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺿﺎﻭﻱ ، ﳏﻤﺪ ﻳﻮﺳﻒ،ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻧﺪﻫﻠﻮﻱ ﺃﺑﻮ ﺯﻛﺮﻳﺎ ﳏﻲ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻦ ﳛﲕ ﺑﻦ ﺷﺮﻑ،ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻭﻱ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺟﻊ ﺍﻹﳒﻠﻴﺰﻳﺔ: ﺎﺛﺎﻧﻴ Ando, A. and Modigliani, F., "The Life-Cycle Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implication and Tests", American Economic Review, Vol. 53, No. 1 (March 1963)55-84. Bennion, E. G., "The Consumption Function Cyclically Variable", Review of Economics and Statistics, (November 1946)21-35. Brown, T. M., "Habit Persistence and Lags in Consumer Behavior", Econometrica, Vol. 20, No. 3 (June 1952)250-264. Davidson, J. H., Hendry, D. F., Srba F. and Yeo, S., "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom", Economic Journal, Vol. 88, No. 3(1978)421-439. Duesenberry, J., "Income-Consumption Relations and Their Implications" in Income, Employment and Public Policy: Essays in Honor of Alvin Hansen, New York:, Norton (1948)54-81. Duesenberry, J., Income, Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behavior. Cambridge: Harvard University Press (1949). Ferber, R., A Study of Aggregate Consumption Functions, National Bureau of Economic Research, Technical Paper, No. 8(1953). Friedman, M. A Theory of the Consumption Function, Princeton: National Bureau of Economic Research (1957). Friedman, M. "The Concept of Horizon in the Permanent Income Hypothesis, in: Christ, C.F. et al. (ed.) Measurement in Economics: Studies ill Mathematical Economics and Econometrics, Stanford: Stanford Univ. Press (1963). International Financial Statements 1984, Washington: International Monetary Fund, 1984. Keynes, J. M., The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. New York: Harcourt Brace, (1936). Modigliani, F. and Ando, A., "Tests of the Life-Cycle Hypothesis of Savings", Bulletin of the Oxford Institute of Statistics, Vol. 19, No. 2 (1960), 49-67. Modigliani, F. and Brumberg, R., "Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function" in: Kurihara, K.K. (ed.) Post-Keynesian Economics, New Brunswick, N.J.: Rutgers University Press (1954) 381-396. Mosak, J., "Forecasting Postwar Demand III" Econometrica, Vol. 14, No. 1 (January 1945)25-53. NPA, National Budget for Full Employment, Washington: National Planning Association (1945). Shapiro, E., Macroeconomic Analysis, 5th ed., N.Y., Harcourt Brace (1982). Smithies, A., Forecasting Postwar Demand I, Econometrica, Vol. 14, No. 3 (June 1945). 1-14. Woytinsky, W., The Relationship Between Consumer's Expenditures Savings and Disposable Income, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 28, No. 1 (February 1946), 112-132. An Econometric Study of Islamic Shari'ah (Law) Rules and the Consumption Function in Contemporary Muslim Countries MUKHTAR M. METWALLY Professor of Economics, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia ABSTRACT. What would be the direction of change of aggregate consumption in contemporary Muslim countries if income redistribution schemes that are called for by Islamic shari'ah (law) are implemented? The present paper answers that question by fitting several types of aggregate consumption functions to each of 30 Muslim countries data. The best fitting function in each case is then used to assess the likely impact of Islamic redistribution. The types of functions estimated for each country reflect: the absolute, the relative, and the permanent income hypotheses as well as the life-cycle and other hypotheses. None of these common hypotheses fits very well the data of these countries. We have therefore introduced a new variant of the absoluteincome hypothesis which we called: 'Consumption Acceleration Hypothesis', and which was found to provide a better fit for the data.
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