2005‫ ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ‬،295-263:‫ ﺹ‬،‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﺴﻼﻤﻴﺔ )ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻨﺴﺎﻨﻴﺔ( ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺩ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ ﻋﺸﺭ– ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﻭل‬
‫ﻤﺩﻯ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﻏﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﻔﺸل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ – ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ‬
‫ ﻓﻠﺴﻁﻴﻥ‬،‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﻏﺯﺓ‬
‫ﻴﻭﺴﻑ ﻤﺤﻤﻭﺩ ﺠﺭﺒﻭﻉ‬
‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ – ﻗﺴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻤﻌـﺔ ﺍﻹﺴﻼﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻏﺯﺓ‬
‫ ﻴﻌﺘـﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠـﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟـﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻭﺍﺌـﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ ﺒﻤﺜﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻤﻜﻥ ﺭﺠﺎل ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل‬:‫ﻤﻠﺨـﺹ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟـﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻠـﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟـﻴﻭﻥ ﻭﻏـﻴﺭﻫﻡ ﻤﻥ ﻋﻤل ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺘﻬﻡ ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺠﺎﺘﻬﻡ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ ﻭﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺃﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺼﻭﺭﺘﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﻠﻭﺏ‬،‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺴﻌﻭﻥ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺤﻭل ﺃﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ‬
.‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺘﺘﻌﺩﺩ ﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﻭﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﻭﻤﺠﺎل ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬
‫ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤـﺙ ﻴـﺭﻯ ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﻗﺩ ﻭﺠﻬﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ‬
‫ ﻜﻤﺎ‬،‫ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻻ ﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬،‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﻭﺃﺭﺼﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻻ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬،‫ﺃﻥ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﺎﻟﺞ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﹰﺎ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻀﻠﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻨﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺒﻨﺎ‬،‫ﻤﺎ ﻟﻡ ﻴﺘﻡ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺘﻬﺎ ﺒﻨﺴﺏ ﻤﺭﺠﻌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬
.‫ ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻐﻔل ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬،‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻗﺎﺼﺭﺍﹰ‬
The Ability of the External Auditor Through Financial Analysis to Detect
Unusual, Errors and the Forecasting about the Project's Failture – Applied
Study on the External Auditors in Gaza Strip, Palestine
Abstract: The Financial analysis of the published financial statements is
considered a tool that enables businessmen, financial establishments, financial
analysts and others for making their studies and inferences to obtain the required
information about the institution's activities. The financial analysis whatsoever his
picture depends upon the comparative method, this method is numerous depending
to trends, nature and the scope of comparison.
The researcher perceives that there are numerous criticals addressed to the
financial analysis, from it, the financial ratios are a relationship between the items
and balances on the balance sheet date, accordingly, it does not appear changes
over years. Also some of financial ratios treated with totals which will be often
misleading. The financial ratios will not be useful unless we compare it with the
industry reference ratios, if we make the financial analysis according to income
and financial position statements, this analysis will be shortage. Finally the
analysis by financial ratios usually forgets the inflation problem.
‫ﻤﺩﻯ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪...‬‬
‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤــﺔ‬
‫ﻴ‪‬ﻁﻠـﻕ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﺴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻜﺈﺤﺩﻯ‬
‫ﻭﺴـﺎﺌل ﺍﻟﺘﺩﻗـﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ ﻴﻠﺠﺄ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‬
‫ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨـﺔ ﺒﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻤﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻤﻤﺎﺜﻠﺔ ﺘﻌﻤل ﻓﻲ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎل‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬
‫ﻓـﻲ ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌـﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠـﻴﺔ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ ﻷﻱ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨـﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺭﺒﻁ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺒﺒﻌﺽ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻋﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺩﻟﻴل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺼﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻻ ﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺩﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺫﻴﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻨﺎﻥ ﻤﻔﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻜﻲ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﺩﻟﻭل ﻤﻌﻴﻥ‪.‬‬
‫‪1- (Kinney 1987).‬‬
‫‪2- (Tabor, and Willis, 1985).‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﻌﺘـﺒﺭ ﺍﻹﺠـﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠـﻴﺔ ‪ 3- (Taylor, and Glezen, 1994).‬ﺇﺤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﺤﻭﺼﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻫـﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ ﻴﻘـﻭﻡ ﺒﻬـﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻗﻴﺎﻤﻪ ﺒﻌﻤل ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤـﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺇﺫ ﻴﺭﻜﺯ )‪ 4- (Boynton, and Kell, 1996‬ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺘﻜـﻭﻥ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺃﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ‪ 5- (Hylas, and Ashton, 1982) .‬ﻭﻴﻁﻠﺏ ﺃﺩﻟﺔ ﺇﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻋـﻨﺩﻤﺎ )‪ 6- (Taylor, and Glezen, 1994‬ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﻀﻌﻴﻔﹰﺎ ﻭﻻ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‪7- (Boynton, and Glezen, 1996) .‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺴـﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﻭﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻠﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﻭﻥ ﻨﻭﻋﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭل ﻴﺴﻤﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻷﻓﻘﻲ ﻭﻫﻭ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻋﺒﺭ‬
‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻴﻼﺌﻡ ﻏﺭﺽ ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﻷﻥ ﻫﺩﻓﻪ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺃﻱ ﺃﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻋﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻓﺎﺕ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻴﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺼﻭﻴﺒﻬﺎ ﻭﺘﺼﺤﻴﺤﻬﺎ‪8- (Loebbecke, "et.al.", 1989) .‬ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﻴﺴﻤﻰ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺤﻠـﻴل ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻲ ﻭﻫﻭ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺘﻌﻤــل‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎل ﻓﻲ ﺴﻨﺔ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻴﻼﺌﻡ ﻏﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉ ﺍﻷﻭل‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻷﻨﻪ ﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﻤــﺩﻯ ﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻨﺠﺎﺤﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻤﻊ‬
‫ﺸﺭﻜــﺎﺕ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﺘﻌﻤل ﻓﻲ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎل ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋــﺔ )‪9- (Ketz, "et.al", 1990‬‬
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‫ﺠـﺭﺒـﻭﻉ‬
‫ﻜﻤـﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻫـﻨﺎﻙ ﻀـﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺘﺩﻋﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﺎﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻟﻸﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫)‪ (1‬ﻋﺩﻡ ﻜﻔﺎﻴﺔ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (2‬ﻋﺩﻡ ﻜﻔﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (3‬ﻓﺸل ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (4‬ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﻭﻗﺕ ﻭﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟـﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﻤﺜل ﺃﺤﺩ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﻓﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺯﺍل ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻬﺎ ﻭﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩﹰﺍ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻨﺔ ﻓﺘﺭﻯ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﺌـﻕ ﺘﺤـﻭل ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻷﺨﺫ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤل ﻟﻠﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﻭﻟﻬﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﻓﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻴﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻜﺎﺩﺭ ﻓﻨﻲ ﻤﺘﺨﺼﺹ ﻭﻭﻗﺕ ﺃﻁﻭل‬
‫ﻟﻠﻘـﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﻬـﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤـﺔ ﻤﻤـﺎ ﻴﺠﻌﻠﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺜﺎﻨﻴﻬﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼـﺹ ﻓـﻲ ﻤﻭﺍﻀـﻴﻊ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺎ ﺘﺘﻁﻠﺒﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﺤﺙ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻤﻭﺍﻀـﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺴـﻭﻴﻕ ﻭﺒﺤﻭﺙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻭﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴـﺔ ﻭﻫـﻭ ﺃﻤﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻭﻓﺭﻩ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻟﻭﺤﺩﻩ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺩﻓﻊ ﺒﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤـﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﺭﻯ ﺒﺈﻨﺸﺎﺀ ﻗﺴﻡ ﺨﺎﺹ ﻟﺩﻴﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺭ ﺒﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻫـﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﻤﻰ ﺒﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻴﻕ ﺤﺘﻰ ﻴﺘﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﺴﺘﺸﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤـﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺒﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺜﺎﻟﺙ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﺌﻕ ﻓﻴﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﻭﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻤﻘـﺒﻭﻟﺔ ﻋﻤﻭﻤﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺠﻪ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﻭﺹ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻗـﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺨﺎﻁﺌﺔ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻭﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﻴﻌﺭﻀﻪ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎﺀﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻴﻌﺭﺽ ﺠﻬﺎﺕ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻜﺈﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﻷﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻔﻴﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‪10- (Simmic, 1984) .‬‬
‫‪11- (Arab Society of Certified Accountants, 2001).‬‬
‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬
‫ﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻤـﺩﻯ ﻗﹸـﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤـﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠـﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻭﻓﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
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‫ﻤﺩﻯ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪...‬‬
‫ﻤـﺩﻯ ﻗـﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤـﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠـﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌـﺭﻭﻓﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺩ ﺇﺭﺸﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺘﺤﺫﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﺒﻜﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺇﻓﻼﺱ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻗﺒل ﺇﻓﻼﺴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‬
‫ﺒﻤﺩﺓ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤـﺩﻯ ﻗـﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤـﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠـﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌـﺭﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨـﺒﺅ ﺒﻌﺩﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﺄﻋﻤﺎﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﻋﻥ )‪ (12‬ﺸﻬﺭﹰﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻴﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺠﺎﺒﺘﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﺒﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪-:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴــﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‪:‬‬
‫ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻭﻓﺔ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴـﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠـﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻭﻓﺔ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺇﺭﺸـﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺘﺤﺫﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﺒﻜﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺇﻓﻼﺱ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻗﺒل ﺇﻓﻼﺴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺒﻤﺩﺓ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠـﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻭﻓﺔ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬
‫ﺒﻌﺩﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﺄﻋﻤﺎﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤـﺔ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬
‫ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﺩﻯ ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل ﻤﻥ ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺴﻠﻴﻤﺔ ﺃﻡ ﺘﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻌﺩﻴل‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺩﻯ ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﻪ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﻯ ﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﺃﻭ ﻓﺸل ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺠﻭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭ ﻟﻠﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺭﻜﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺃﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻻﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
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‫ﺠـﺭﺒـﻭﻉ‬
‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬
‫ﺘـﺒﺩﻭ ﺃﻫﻤـﻴﺔ ﻫـﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤـﺙ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﺩﻨﻰ ﺩﺭﺠـﺔ ﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻵﺘﻲ‪-:‬‬
‫)‪ (1‬ﻤﺴـﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤـﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻴﻡ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺄﺨﺫ ﺨﻁﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤـﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﺠﻭﺍﻨﺏ ﺍﻟﻀﺭﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻹﺒﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺼﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪12- (Holder, 1983) .‬‬
‫)‪ (2‬ﺘﺴـﺎﻋﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻭﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻀـﻤﺎﻥ ﺼﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﺼل ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻓﻬﻲ ﺘﻘﻠل ﻤﻥ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ‪13- (Georgiades, G. 2001) .‬‬
‫)‪ (3‬ﺘﺴـﺎﻋﺩ ﺍﻟﻤـﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠـﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺨﺘﺼﺎﺭ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺘﺨﻔـﻴﺽ ﺘﻜﺎﻟـﻴﻔﻬﺎ ﻭﺫﻟـﻙ ﻤـﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺘﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻀﻤﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻀﺭﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﺃﺼﺩﻕ ﺘﻤﺜﻴل‪.‬‬
‫‪14- (Hansen, and Shaftel, 1977).‬‬
‫)‪ (4‬ﺘﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻴﺢ ﻟﻪ ﺴﻬﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺁﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻓﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺭﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺒﻬﺎ )‪ (Basu‬ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 1983‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺒﺢ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ )‪ (Earnings to Price Ratio, E/p.‬ﺘﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻋﺎﺌﺩ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‪15- (Basu, S. (1983) .‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻜل ﻤﻥ )‪ (Rosenberg, Reid and Lanstein‬ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪1985‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺒﻴﻨﺕ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﻤﻭﺠﺒﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻓﺘﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻭﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻭﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻜﺩ ﺫﻟﻙ ) ‪Chan, Hamo‬‬
‫‪ (and Lakonishok‬ﻓـﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 1991‬ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺃﺠﺭﻴﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻴﺎﺒﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫)‪16- (Rosenberg, and Lanstein, 1985‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺒﻬﺎ )‪ (Bhandari‬ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 1988‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺨﻠﺹ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻤﻭﺠﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ‪17 (Bhandari, 1988) .‬‬
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‫ﻤﺩﻯ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪...‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻜل ﻤﻥ )‪ (Barbee, 1989) (Fisher, 1984‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻴﻥ ﺒﻴﻨﺎ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﻭﻀـﺢ )‪ (Fisher‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﹰﺎ ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺎﹰ‪،‬‬
‫ﺘﻜـﻭﻥ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﺭﻭﻓﺔ ﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ )ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭﻫﺎ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ(‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻓـﻴﻬﺎ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ ﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﻨﺴﺒﻴﹰﺎ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻌﺭﻭﻓﺔ ﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ‪،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺸﺭﺍﺌﻬﺎ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻨﺴﺒﻴﹰﺎ‪18- (Fisher, 1984). .‬‬
‫‪19- (Barbee, 1989).‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻜل ﻤﻥ )ﻓﻭﺯﻱ ﻏﺭﺍﻴﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﻭﺩ ﺠﻌﻔﺭ( ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 1988‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﺠﺭﻴﺕ‬
‫ﻋﻠـﻰ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﻴﻨﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺠﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ‪) -20 .‬ﻏﺭﺍﻴﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺠﻌﻔﺭ‪.(،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺒﻬﺎ )ﻋﺒﺩﺍﷲ‪ ،‬ﻋﺒﺩﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﺭ‪ (1995 ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺃﺠﺭﻴﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴـﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻭﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﻴﻨﺕ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ‬
‫ﻭﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ‪.‬‬
‫‪) -21‬ﻋﺒﺩﺍﷲ‪ ،‬ﻋﺒﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﺭ‪.(1995 ،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻜل ﻤﻥ )"‪ (Barbee, "et.al‬ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 1996‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺭﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬
‫ﺒﻴﻥ ﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻓﺘﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺭﺒﺢ ﻭﺤﺠﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸـﺭﻜﺔ ﻭﺒﻴـﻥ ﻋـﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺨﻠﺼﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﻟﻬﻤﺎ ﻗﻭﺓ ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻓﺘﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪.‬‬
‫)‪22- (Barbee, W. Mukherji, S. and Raines, G. 1996‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺒﻬﺎ )ﻤﻁﺭ‪ ،‬ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﻋﻁﻴﺔ‪ (1998 ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﺴﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟـﻴﺔ ﺘـﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﺘﺒﻌـﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺃﺨﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺃﻭ ﹰ‬
‫ﻻ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﻤﺨﺯﻭﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴـﻠﻌﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﺕ ﺃﺼﻭﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﺒﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﺇﺤﺩﻯ ﻁﺭﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎﺭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻋﺠﻠـﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻁﻔﺎﺀ ﺃﺼﻭﻟﻬﺎ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻤﻭﺴـﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺘﺒﻌﺕ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﺘﺤﻔﻅﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺭﺴﻤﻠﺔ ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻠﺠﻭﺀ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺭﺴﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻭﻓﺎﺕ ﻭﻓﻲ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﻻﺓ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺤـﺎﻻﺕ ﺘﺄﺠﻴل ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺩﻴﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺘﻭﺤﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ‬
‫ﺒﺨﺼـﻭﺹ ﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠـﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻔﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺃﻡ ﺒﺨﺼﻭﺹ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺭﺍﻑ‬
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‫ﺠـﺭﺒـﻭﻉ‬
‫ﺒﻨﺼـﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻷﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﻭﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﺸﺭﻜﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻴﻠﺔ‪) -23 .‬ﻤﻁﺭ‪ ،‬ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬
‫ﻋﻁﻴﺔ‪.(1998 ،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ ﻗـﺎﻡ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻜل ﻤﻥ )‪ (Clark, and Weinstein‬ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 1983‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺘﻭﺼـﻼ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺴﺎﻫﻡ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻗـﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﻴﻥ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺤﻔﻅ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭﻫﻡ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﺈﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﺸل ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻗﺒل ﻓﺸﻠﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻲ ﺒﻌﺩﺓ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫)‪24- (Clark, and Weinstein, 1983‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺭﺴـﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺒﻬﺎ )‪ (Firth, M.‬ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،1978‬ﻭﺘﻭﺼل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻨﻪ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﺒﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺭﺩ ﻓﻌل ﺴﺎﻟﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺒﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﺘﺤﻔﻅﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺒﺨﺼـﻭﺹ ﻋـﺩﻡ ﺍﻟـﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﺄﻋﻤﺎﻟﻬﺎ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻅﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻴﺱ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻔﻅﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺤ ‪‬ﺩ ﺫﺍﺘﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫)‪25- (Firth, M., 1978‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻜل ﻤﻥ )‪ (Menon, and Schwart,‬ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 1987‬ﻭﺍﻟﻠﺫﻴﻥ ﺘﺼﻼ‬
‫ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﻠﻤﺕ ﺘﺤﻔﻅﺎﺕ ﺘﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﻘﺩﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻓـﻲ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻟﻬـﺎ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺴﺎﻟﺒﺔ ﺒﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺃﻗل ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﻡ ﺘﺘﺴﻠﻡ‬
‫ﺘﺤﻔﻅﺎﺕ ﺘﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﻘﺩﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻟﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫)‪26- (Menon, and Schwartz, 1987‬‬
‫)‪27- (Altman, and McGough, 1974‬‬
‫ﻤﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬
‫ﺴـﻭﻑ ﻴـﻨﻬﺞ ﻫـﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻔﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺎﺩﹰﺍ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﻭﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺒﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻵﺘﻲ‪-:‬‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﹰﻻ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻵﺘﻲ‬
‫)‪ (1‬ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ‬
‫ﻴﻌﺘـﺒﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻤﺭﺍﺩﻓﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺘﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﻡ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻗـﻴﻤﺔ ﺒـﻨﺩ ﻤﻌﻴـﻥ ﻜﺎﻟﻤﺨـﺯﻭﻥ‪ ،‬ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻨﺘﻤﻲ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺩ ﻭﻫﻭ ﺒﺎﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺼـﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺩﺍﻭﻟﺔ ﻟﻴﻅﻬﺭ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺸﻜل ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ )‪ ،(%‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺭﻗﻤﻴﻥ ﻅﻬﺭﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﻟﻜﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻴﺭﺘﺒﻁﺎﻥ ﻤﻌﹰﺎ‬
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‫ﻤﺩﻯ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪...‬‬
‫ﺒﻌﻼﻗـﺔ ﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺤﺼﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺍﻭل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺸﺘﻕ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨـﺔ ﻗـﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺼـﻭل ﺍﻟﻤـﺘﺩﺍﻭﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺒﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺨﺼﻭﻤﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺩﺍﻭﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﻤﻭﺠـﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗـﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺸـﺘﻘﺎﻕ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻟﺭﺠﺎل ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻬﺎ ﻜﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﺠﻪ ﻨﺸﺎﻁﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪28- (Anderson, "et.al", 1995) .‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺨﻤﺱ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪-:‬‬
‫)ﺃ( ﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﺭﺒﺤﻴـــﺔ‬
‫ﻤـﺜل ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﺠﻤل ﺍﻟﺭﺒﺢ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺭﺒﺢ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‪.‬‬
‫)ﺏ( ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻫﻲ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻜﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﻓﺎﺀ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠل‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪-:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‬
‫‪ -‬ﻨﺴﺒـﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺍﻭل‬
‫‪ -‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺼل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻓﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ‬
‫)‪29- (Taffler, 1982‬‬
‫)ﺝ( ﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫ﻭﺘﺴـﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻜﻤﺅﺸـﺭﺍﺕ ﻟﺘﻘﻴـﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻜﻔـﺎﺀﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﺼﻭﻟﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﺜل ﻤﻌﺩل ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ‪ ،‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻴﻨﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺼﻴل‪.‬‬
‫)ﺩ( ﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻜﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﺤﻤﻠﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺭﻀـﻭﻥ ﻭﻤـﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺸـﺭﻭﻉ ﺒﺴـﺒﺏ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺠﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ‪ (Trade on Ownership) ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪-:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ‪ /‬ﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ‪ /‬ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‪.‬‬
‫ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ‪ /‬ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘـﺔ‪.‬‬‫‪30- (Woelfel, 1994).‬‬
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‫ﺠـﺭﺒـﻭﻉ‬
‫)ﻫـ( ﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﻭﻴﺴـﺘﻔﺎﺩ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻜﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﺜﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻠـﻴﻬﺎ‪ -:‬ﺭﺒﺤﻴـﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﺴﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﻨﺼﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺯﻉ‪ ،‬ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ‪ ،‬ﻤﻀﺎﻋﻑ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻓﺘﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻬﻡ‪31- (Deakin, 1976) .‬‬
‫ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻴﺯﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻓﻬﻲ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻴﻴﺴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺂﺕ‬
‫ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺤﺠﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻷﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎل ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻑ ﺃﺤﺠﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺂﺕ‬
‫ﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻘﺔ ﻤﻀﻠﻠﺔ ﻭﻻ ﻤﺩﻟﻭل ﻟﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺠﻬﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻫﻭ ﻁﺎﺒﻊ ﺍﻟﺠﻤﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﺴﻡ ﺒﻪ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﻗـﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨـﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﺘﻭﻀﺢ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺤﺎل ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻟﺤﻅﺔ ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺒﻴـﻨﻤﺎ ﺍﻷﻜـﺜﺭ ﺃﻫﻤـﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ‬
‫ﻻ ﻭﻤﻭﻀﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﻗـﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻷﻨـﻪ ﺒﺫﻟﻙ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺸﻤﻭ ﹰ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (2‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻴﻠﺠﺄ ﺭﺠﺎل ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﻭﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﻟﺘﻼﻓﻲ ﺴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻤﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﹰﺎ‬
‫ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠـﻴل ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺩ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﺍﺭ ﻋﺩﺓ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺎﻟـﻴﺔ ﻟﻠـﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺙ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺩ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨـﺔ‪ ،‬ﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻭﻓﺭ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺴﻌﻰ‬
‫ﺇﻟـﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠـل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟـﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻤﻜﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻴﻥ ﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﺩﻕ ﻋﻥ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺤﺎل ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻭﻋﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺘﺨﺫ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺸﻜل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻷﻓﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸـﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﺍﺭ ﻋﺩﺓ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺘﻤﺘﺩ ﻤﻥ ‪ 10 – 5‬ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﻭﺘﻌﺎﻤل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴـﻨﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻔـﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟـﻴﺔ ﻜﺴﻨﺔ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﻟﻴﺘﻡ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺇﻅﻬﺎﺭ ﻗﻴﻡ ﻜل ﺒﻨﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺸﻜل ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ )‪ (%‬ﻤﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺱ ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (3‬ﻤﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤ‪‬ﺩﻗﻘــﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﹰﻻ‪ :‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻴﺴـﻠﻙ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺨل ﻤﻥ ﻤﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻤﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﻘﺒﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻴﻥ ﻴﻬﻤﻬﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺤﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‪-:‬‬
‫ﻼ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (1‬ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺓ ﺍﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﺤﺎﻟﻴﹰﺎ ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒ ﹰ‬
‫)‪ (2‬ﻓﺭﺽ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
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‫ﻤﺩﻯ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪...‬‬
‫‪32- (Barnes, and Huan, H. (1993): PP. 213 – 228).‬‬
‫ﺃﻨﻅﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎل ‪-:‬‬
‫)‪33- (Boritz, and Kralitz, 1987‬‬
‫)‪34- (Chen, and Church, 1992‬‬
‫)‪35- (Cormier, "et.al", 1995‬‬
‫)‪36- (Koh, and Killough, 1990‬‬
‫)‪37- (Koh, and Oliga, (1990‬‬
‫)‪ (3‬ﻤﺩﻯ ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺭﺴﻡ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻤﺩﻯ ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﺴـﺘﻐﻼل ﺍﻟﻤـﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﺈﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺃﺼﻭﻟﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻭﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻫﺎ‪38- (Pringle, "et.al", 1990) .‬‬
‫ﺃﻨﻅﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎل ‪-:‬‬
‫‪39- (Estes, and Reimer, 1977).‬‬
‫)‪40- (Firth, 1980‬‬
‫)‪41- (Gomez- Guillamon, 2003‬‬
‫)‪ (4‬ﻤﺅﺸـﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺤﻴﻁ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻤﺎﺭﺍﺘﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻟﻭ ﺘﻌﺭﻀﺕ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻹﻓﻼﺱ )‪42- (Clark, and Weinsteink, 1983‬‬
‫ﺃﻨﻅﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎل ‪-:‬‬
‫)‪42- (Altman, 1968‬‬
‫)‪43- (Alderson, and Betker, 1999‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﻴﺩﺓ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ ‪-:‬‬
‫)ﺃ( ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﺒﺤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫)ﺏ( ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫)ﺝ( ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ‪.‬‬
‫)ﺩ( ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴ ﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻭﻴﺴـﻠﻙ ﻫـﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺨـل ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺌـﻨﻭﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴل‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﻘﺼﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺤﻭل‪-:‬‬
‫)ﺃ( ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺩﺍﺩ ﺃﺼل ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻥ ﻭﺘﺴﺩﻴﺩ ﻓﻭﺍﺌﺩﻩ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﻗﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫)ﺏ( ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﻭﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﻴﻜل ﺭﺃﺱ ﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ‪.‬‬
‫)ﺝ( ﻤـﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁـﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ ﺘﺤـﻴﻁ ﺒﺩﻴﻭﻨﻬﻡ ﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ ﺒﺄﻭﻟﻭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺭﺽ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﻘﻭﻗﻪ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻟﻭ ﺘﻌﺭﻀﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻹﻓﻼﺱ ‪.‬‬
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‫ﺠـﺭﺒـﻭﻉ‬
‫‪44- (Carcello, and Palmrose, 1994).‬‬
‫ﺃﻨﻅﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎل‪-:‬‬
‫)‪45- (Casterella, "et.al", 2000‬‬
‫)‪46- (Constable, and Woodliff, 1994‬‬
‫)ﺩ( ﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﺒﻌﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﻭﻴﻡ ﺃﺼﻭﻟﻬﺎ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻘﺩﻡ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻜﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ‪-:‬‬
‫* ﻭﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﻴﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎل ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪-:‬‬
‫)‪ (1‬ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (2‬ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺀﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴل‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (3‬ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (4‬ﺍﻟﺘﺩﻓﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺠﻠﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴل‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻟﺜ ﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ‬
‫ﺘﺤﻠـﻴل ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﻴﻌﺘـﺒﺭ ﻀـﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻏﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﻭﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤـﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌـﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟـﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻷﻏﺭﺍﺽ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﻻ ﺘﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ ﺠﻤﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌـﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟـﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻗﻘـﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺴﺒﻘﺕ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﻟﺫﻟﻙ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﻏﺎﻟﺒﹰﺎ ﻤﺎ ﺘﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺴـﺠﻼﺕ ﻤﺤﺎﺴـﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻟﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻗﻘﺔ ﻤﺜل‪-:‬‬
‫)ﺃ( ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺤﻭل ﺍﻟﺭﺒﺤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫)ﺏ( ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻤﺜل‪-:‬‬
‫ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻴﻨﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ‪.‬‬‫‪ -‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤل ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (4‬ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﹰﻻ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺘﺤﻠـﻴل ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻴ‪‬ﻌﻁﻲ ﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺠﻴﺩﺓ ﻋﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻭﻭﻀﻌﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻜﻨﻪ‬
‫ﻴـﺘﺠﺎﻫل ﺃﺒﻌـﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‪ ،‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻜﺂﻟـﺔ ﺘﺼﻭﻴﺭ ﺘﹸﻌﻁﻲ ﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻟﺤﻅﺔ ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻡ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺤﻠل ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﺨﺫﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺨﻼل ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺘﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤـﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﻤـﻥ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﻴﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺴﻥ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ ﺨﻼل ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‪.‬‬
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‫ﻤﺩﻯ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪...‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴ ﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺠﻌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻫـﻲ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﻤﻌﻴﻥ ﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﹰﺍ ﻟﻜل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸـﺂﺕ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻬﺎ ﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻨﺴﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺤﺎﻟـﺔ ﻨﻤـﻭ ﺃﻡ ﻓـﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‪ .‬ﻓﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻻ ﻴﻔﻴﺩ ﻜﺜﻴﺭﺍﹰ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻼ ﻟﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﺘﻁﻭﺭﹰﺍ ﻭﺘﻘﺩﻤﹰﺎ ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻪ ﺃﻗل ﻤﻤﺎ ﺘﺤﻘﻘﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺒﻬﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﺜ ﹰ‬
‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺭﻴﻌﺔ ﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺯل ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺴﻴﺞ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ﻤﻌﻴﻥ )‪ ،(%15‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬
‫ﻨﺴـﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺴـﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺴـﺭﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺠﻌﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ )‪ (%20‬ﻓﻬﺫﺍ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺭﻴﻌﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻗل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻟﺜ ﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻤﺸﺎﺒﻬﺔ‬
‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻤﺸﺎﺒﻬﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬
‫ﻏـﻴﺭ ﻤـﺭﻏﻭﺒﺔ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻷﻥ ﻜل ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻅﺭﻭﻓﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻭﺃﺼﻭل ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻠﻤﻭﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻋﺎﺩﻟـﺔ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (5‬ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﺎﻹﻓﻼﺱ‬
‫ﻟﻘـﺩ ﻗـﺎﻡ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺨﺒﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻭﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺒﻤﺜﺎﺒﺔ ﻤﻘﺎﻴﻴﺱ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﺎﻹﻓﻼﺱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﻭﺍ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪-:‬‬
‫)‪ (1‬ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (2‬ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﺠﺯﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (3‬ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﻀﺭﺍﺌﺏ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (4‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻗﻴﺔ ﻟﺤﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻓﺘﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﺭﻭﺽ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (5‬ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‪.‬‬
‫)‪47- (Jones, 1987‬‬
‫ﺃﻨﻅﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎل‪-:‬‬
‫)‪48- (Nasir, 2000‬‬
‫)‪49- (Eidleman, 1995‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻨﺨﻔـﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺩ‪‬ﻨﻴﺎ ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﹰﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻓﻼﺱ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟـﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻱ ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺴﻨﻭﻴﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻨﺸﺎﻁﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﺯﺩﻫﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﻻ ﺘﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﺍﺀ‪.‬‬
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‫ﺠـﺭﺒـﻭﻉ‬
‫)‪ (6‬ﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﻀﻌﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺭﻏﻡ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﺎﺘﻪ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻗﺩ ﻭﺠﻬﺕ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻋﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﻨﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺯﻫﺎ ﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪-:‬‬
‫)ﺃ( ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﻭﺃﺭﺼﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻴﻭﻡ ﻤﻌﻴﻥ ﻭﻫﻭ ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ﺇﻗﻔﺎل ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻭﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻻ ﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﺴﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫)ﺏ( ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﺎﻟﺞ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﹰﺎ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻀﻠﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫)ﺝ( ﺍﺨـﺘﻼﻑ ﺘﺼـﻨﻴﻑ ﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﻴﺠﻌل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺼل ﺇﻟﻰ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻻ ﻤﺘﺩﺍﻭﻟﺔ ﻗﺩ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭﻩ ﺁﺨﺭﻭﻥ ﺸﺒﻪ ﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻜﺱ ﺼﺤﻴﺢ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺽ ﺃﺼﻭ ﹰ‬
‫)ﺩ( ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻻ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻤﺎ ﻟﻡ ﻴﺘﻡ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺘﻬﺎ ﺒﻨﺴﺏ ﻤﺭﺠﻌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‪.‬‬
‫)ﻫــ( ﺇﺫﺍ ﺘـﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﻨﺎ ‪‬ﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻏﺎﻟﺒﹰﺎ ﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻴﻜـﻭﻥ ﻗﺎﺼـﺭﹰﺍ ﻟﻌﺩﻡ ﺸﻤﻭل ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜل ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤـﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﺼﻴل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﻀﺢ‬
‫ﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺭ‪.‬‬
‫)ﻭ( ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻐﻔل ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴ ﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺩﺍﻨﻴــﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ‬
‫ﺇﻀـﺎﻓﺔ ﻟﻠﻤـﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻔﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﻠﺫﺍﻥ ﺘﻨﺎﻭﻟﺘﻬﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻁﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟـﻨﻅﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻓـﺈﻥ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒ‪‬ﻌﺩ ﻤﻴﺩﺍﻨﻲ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻲ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺎﻟﻭﻗﻭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠـﻲ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠـﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﺈﻓﻼﺱ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺒﺎﻨﺎﺕ )‪ (Questionnaire‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻡ ﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩﻫﺎ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺽ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﻏﺯﺓ ﻭﻋﺩﺩﻫﻡ‬
‫)‪ (85‬ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﹰﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺭﺴـﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺸﺘﻤل ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ )‪ (85‬ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺎ‪ ،‬ﺘﻡ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﺴﺘﺒﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﻡ ﻭﻫﻡ ﻴﻤﺜﻠﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺼـﻠﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤل‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺠﺎﻉ )‪ (68‬ﺍﺴﺘﺒﺎﻨﺔ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺼـﺎﻟﺤﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻠـﻴل‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺘﻤﺜل ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ ﻗﺩﺭﻫﺎ )‪ ،(%80‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ ﻭﻤﻌﻘﻭﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻗﻴﺎﺴﹰﺎ ﻟﻸﺒﺤﺎﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺎﺜﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
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‫ﻤﺩﻯ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪...‬‬
‫ﺃﺩﺍﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬
‫ﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﺩﺍﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬
‫ﻟﻘﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ ﻗﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﻭﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻤﺒﺩﺌﻴﹰﺎ ﻤﻊ ﺨﻤﺴﺔ ﻤﻜﺎﺘﺏ ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﺘﻌﻤل ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻗﻁـﺎﻉ ﻏﺯﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻘﺩ ﻁﻠﺏ ﻤﻨﻬﻡ ﺍﻹﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺴﺌﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻤﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀـﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘـﺘﺭﺤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺠﻤﻌـﺕ ﺇﺠﺎﺒﺎﺘﻬﻡ ﻭﺘﻡ ﺍﻻﺘﺼﺎل ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻲ ﺒﻬﻡ ﻭﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻼﺕ‬
‫ﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﻤﻌﻬﻡ ﻭﺃﺨﺫﺕ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻤﻼﺤﻅﺎﺘﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺒﺎﻥ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻗﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﻘـﺩ ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺒﻼﺕ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺒﺎﻁ ﻤﺩﻯ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠـﻲ ﻋـﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﺈﻓﻼﺱ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔـﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺴـﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻟﻘﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺇﺭﺴﺎل ﻗﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻭﺘﻌﺩﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ )‪ (85‬ﻤﻜﺘﺒﹰﺎ ﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﻏﺯﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﺘﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪-:‬‬
‫)‪(1‬‬
‫ﺃﺭﻓﻕ ﻤﻊ ﻗﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺨﻁﺎﺏ ﻤﻭﺠﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺤﺩﺩ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻫﺩﻑ‬
‫)‪(2‬‬
‫ﺃﺭﺴﻠﺕ ﻗﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻤﻜﺎﺘﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﻏﺯﺓ ﻭﻋﺩﺩﻫﺎ )‪ (85‬ﻤﻜﺘﺒﺎﹰ‪،‬‬
‫)‪(3‬‬
‫ﺘـﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺩ )‪ (68‬ﻤﻜﺘﺒﺎﹰ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻤﺜل ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺇﺭﺠﺎﻉ ﻗﺩﺭﻫﺎ )‪ (%80‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﻭﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺇﻜﻤﺎل ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺒﺎﻨﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺴﺭﻋﺔ ﺍﻹﺠﺎﺒﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺤﺴﺏ ﻋﻨﺎﻭﻴﻨﻬﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺠﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻟﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺴﻁﻴﻨﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ ﻭﻤﻌﻘﻭﻟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬
‫ﻻ ﺒـﺩ ﻤـﻥ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﻴﻘﺘﺼﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﻏﺯﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻓﻠﺴﻁﻴﻥ ﻟﻌﺩﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻀﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻷﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺴﺠل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤـﺙ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺘﺯﺍﻤﻥ ﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﻴﺩﺍﻨﻴﹰﺎ ﻤﻊ ﺃﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺍﻨﺘﻔﺎﻀﺔ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺎ ﺼﺎﺤﺒﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺘﻘﻁـﻴﻊ ﻭﻋﺯل ﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﻏﺯﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺽ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺘﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ‬
‫ﻤـﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﺼـﻭل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﻭﺜﻴﻥ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﻏﺯﺓ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻴﺴﺠل ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﺒﺎﻥ ﻋﺩﺩﹰﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﻭﺜﻴﻥ ﻗﺩ ﺍﻋﺘﺫﺭﻭﺍ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺒﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬
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‫ﺠـﺭﺒـﻭﻉ‬
‫ﺘـﻡ ﺘﺼـﻤﻴﻡ ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﺒﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﺭﺴـﻠﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﻡ ﺘﻔﺭﻴﻎ ﻭﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ ﻭﺭﺩﺕ ﻓـﻴﻬﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺴـﺘﻜﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺹ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﻌﺩﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺒﻼﺕ ﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻭﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯﻫﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓـﻴﻤﺎ ﻴـﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺘﺤﻠـﻴل ﺍﻟﺒـﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻔﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻲ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﺍﻭل ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻀﻴﺤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺎﺕ ﻭﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﻨﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻘﻠﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻓﻠﺴﻁﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻜـﺎﺩﺕ ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴـﺔ ﻤﻬﻨﺔ ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻓﻠﺴﻁﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻭﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺴﻠﻁﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺤـﺘﻼل ﺍﻹﺴـﺭﺍﺌﻴﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜـﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺔ ﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﺘﺩﺭﻴﺠﻴﹰﺎ ﻤﻊ ﻋﻭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺴـﻁﻴﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻴﻥ ﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻏـﻴﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﺸﻙ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﻜﻤﻬﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻻ ﻴﺯﺍل ﻓﻲ ﺤﺩﻩ ﺍﻷﺩﻨﻰ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻜﺫﻟـﻙ ﻻ ﻴـﺯﺍل ﺃﻤـﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻬﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﺠﻬﻭﺩﹰﺍ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻴﺠﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﻡ ﻋﻤﻠﻪ ﻟﻠﻭﺼﻭل ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺠﻭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺭﺠﻊ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺤﺴﺏ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺭﺍﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪-:‬‬
‫)ﺃ(‬
‫ﻋـﺩﻡ ﻜﻔﺎﻴـﺔ ﺍﻟﻘـﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺭﻗـﻡ )‪ (10‬ﻟﺴﻨﺔ ‪ ، 1961‬ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻟﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﻤﻬﻨﺔ‬
‫ﻤـﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻤﻭل ﺒﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻀﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺼﺩﺭ ﺒﺸﺄﻨﻪ ﻗﺭﺍﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺭﺌﻴﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴـﻠﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺴﻁﻴﻨﻴﺔ ‪ /‬ﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺴﻁﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (5‬ﻟﺴﻨﺔ ‪1997‬‬
‫ﺒﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺴﻁﻴﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻡ ﺇﻟﻐﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﻤل ﺒﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺒﺎﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺒﺼﺩﻭﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (32‬ﻟﺴﻨﺔ ‪.1985‬‬
‫)ﺏ( ﻀـﻌﻑ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨـﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺠﻤﻌـﻴﺔ ﻤﺩﻗﻘـﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺴـﺎﺒﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺠﻤﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺴﻁﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫)ﺕ( ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻭﻋﻲ ﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﺄﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺠﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻴﻴﺯ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻋﺩﺓ ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺸﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻘﺩﻤﻬﺎ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﻤﻜﺎﺘﺏ ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺸﻤل ‪-:‬‬
‫‪ (1‬ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﻓﻘﹰﺎ ﻟﻘﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩﺓ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (2‬ﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻷﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻜﺸﺌﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻅﻔﻴﻥ ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﺫﻟﻙ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (3‬ﺘﻘﺩﻴـﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻭﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺌﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺴﺏ ﺍﻵﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺸﻐﻴل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪50- (long man, 1989). .‬‬
‫‪ (4‬ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺸﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪277‬‬
‫ﻤﺩﻯ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪...‬‬
‫‪ (5‬ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺸﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ ﺃﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (6‬ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺸﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫)‪51- (Goldman and Barlev, 1974‬‬
‫ﺃﻨﻅﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎل‪-:‬‬
‫)‪52 – ( Nicholols and price, 1979‬‬
‫)‪53- ( Simmic, 1984‬‬
‫)‪54- ( Antle, 1984‬‬
‫‪ (7‬ﻋﻤل ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (8‬ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺄﺴﻴﺱ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (9‬ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﻜﺎﺘﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﻏﺯﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺭ ﺒﺎﻟﺫﻜﺭ ﺃﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﻜﺎﺘﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﻏﺯﺓ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺘﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺠﻠﺔ ﻟﺩﻯ ﻟﺠﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺘﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻌـﺔ ﻟﺠﻤﻌﻴـﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺴﻁﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ‬
‫)‪ (85‬ﻤﻜﺘﺒﹰﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻤـﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺠﻐﺭﺍﻓﻲ ﻭﻤﻭﻗﻊ ﻤﻜﺎﺘﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻜـﺎﻥ ﻨﺼـﻴﺒﻬﺎ )‪(15‬ﻤﻜﺘﺒﹰﺎ ﻭﺘﻤﺜل )‪ (%18‬ﻤﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺘﺏ‪ ،‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁﻰ ﻓﻜﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻨﺼﻴﺒﻬﺎ )‪ (4‬ﻤﻜﺎﺘﺏ ﻭﺘﻤﺜل )‪ (%5‬ﻓﻘﻁ ﻤﻥ ﻋـﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺘﺏ‪ ،‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻏﺯﺓ ﻓﻜﺎﻥ ﻨﺼﻴﺒﻬﺎ‬
‫)‪ (66‬ﻤﻜﺘـﺒﹰﺎ ﻭﺘﻤـﺜل )‪ (%77‬ﻤﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺘﺏ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﻜﻭﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺴﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬
‫ﻓﻬﻲ ﻤﻘﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺴﻁﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﻫﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (1‬ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﺢ ﺃﺩﻨﺎﻩ‬
‫ﻴﺒﻴﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﻜﺎﺘﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﻏﺯﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪(1‬‬
‫ﺕ‬
‫‪01‬‬
‫ﺍﻹﻴﻀـﺎﺤـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻏﺯﺓ‬
‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺘﺏ‬
‫‪66‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ‬
‫‪%77‬‬
‫‪02‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁﻰ‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪%5‬‬
‫‪03‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫‪15‬‬
‫‪%18‬‬
‫‪85‬‬
‫‪%100‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬
‫‪278‬‬
‫ﺠـﺭﺒـﻭﻉ‬
‫"ﺭﺴـﻡ ﻜﺭﻭﻜـﻲ ﻴﻭﻀﺢ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﻜﺎﺘﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﻏﺯﺓ ﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ"‬
‫‪%5‬‬
‫‪%18‬‬
‫‪%77‬‬
‫ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻘﺩﻤﻬﺎ ﻤﻜﺎﺘﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻭﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﻭﻥ ﺒﺄﺩﺍﺀ ﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ ﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺨﺩﻤـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤـﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺸﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻤﺜل ﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺭﺍﺌﺏ ﻭﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻤل ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺭﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪(2‬‬
‫ﻴﺒﻴﻥ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺸﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻤﻜﺎﺘﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﻏﺯﺓ‬
‫ﺕ‬
‫‪01‬‬
‫ﺍﻹﻴﻀـﺎﺤـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫‪%40‬‬
‫‪02‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫‪%30‬‬
‫‪03‬‬
‫ﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ‬
‫‪%23‬‬
‫‪04‬‬
‫ﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫‪%07‬‬
‫‪%100‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬
‫‪279‬‬
‫ﻤﺩﻯ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪...‬‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪(3‬‬
‫ﻴ‪‬ﺒﻴﻥ ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠﺩﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫‪Valid‬‬
‫‪Cumulative‬‬
‫‪Descriptions‬‬
‫‪Frequency Percent%‬‬
‫‪Percent‬‬
‫‪Percent‬‬
‫‪34‬‬
‫‪50.00‬‬
‫‪50.00‬‬
‫‪50.00‬‬
‫ﻤﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﺒﺸﺩﺓ ‪valid‬‬
‫‪24‬‬
‫‪35.29‬‬
‫‪35.29‬‬
‫‪85.29‬‬
‫ﻤﻭﺍﻓﻕ‬
‫‪92.64‬‬
‫‪7.35‬‬
‫‪7.35‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫ﻤﺤﺎﻴﺩ‬
‫‪97.05‬‬
‫‪4.41‬‬
‫‪4.41‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫ﻻ ﺃﻭﺍﻓﻕ‬
‫‪100.00‬‬
‫‪2.95‬‬
‫‪2.95‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﻻ ﺃﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﺒﺸﺩﺓ‬
‫‪--‬‬
‫‪100.00‬‬
‫‪100.00‬‬
‫‪68‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪(4‬‬
‫ﻴﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺩ ﺇﺭﺸﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺘﺨﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﺒﻜﺭﺓ ﺒﺈﻓﻼﺱ ﻭﻓﺸل ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻗﺒل ﺇﻓﻼﺴﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺒﻤﺩﺓ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬
‫‪Valid‬‬
‫‪percent‬‬
‫‪35.29‬‬
‫‪Percent %‬‬
‫‪Frequency‬‬
‫‪Cumulative‬‬
‫‪percent‬‬
‫‪35.29‬‬
‫‪35.29‬‬
‫‪24‬‬
‫ﻤﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﺒﺸﺩﺓ ‪valid‬‬
‫‪82.35‬‬
‫‪47.06‬‬
‫‪47.06‬‬
‫‪32‬‬
‫ﻤﻭﺍﻓﻕ‬
‫‪94.12‬‬
‫‪11.77‬‬
‫‪11.77‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫ﻤﺤﺎﻴﺩ‬
‫‪97.06‬‬
‫‪2.94‬‬
‫‪2.94‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﻻ ﺃﻭﺍﻓﻕ‬
‫‪100.00‬‬
‫‪2.94‬‬
‫‪2.94‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﻻ ﺃﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﺒﺸﺩﺓ‬
‫‪--‬‬
‫‪100.00‬‬
‫‪100.00‬‬
‫‪68‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ‬
‫‪280‬‬
‫‪Descriptions‬‬
‫ﺠـﺭﺒـﻭﻉ‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪(5‬‬
‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﻌﺩﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﺄﻋﻤﺎﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤـﺔ‬
‫‪Cumulative‬‬
‫‪percent‬‬
‫‪29.42‬‬
‫‪Valid percent‬‬
‫‪Percent %‬‬
‫‪Frequency‬‬
‫‪29.42‬‬
‫‪29.42‬‬
‫‪20‬‬
‫ﻤﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﺒﺸﺩﺓ ‪valid‬‬
‫‪91.18‬‬
‫‪61.76‬‬
‫‪61.76‬‬
‫‪42‬‬
‫ﻤﻭﺍﻓﻕ‬
‫‪94.12‬‬
‫‪2.94‬‬
‫‪2.94‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﻤﺤﺎﻴﺩ‬
‫‪97.06‬‬
‫‪2.94‬‬
‫‪2.94‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﻻ ﺃﻭﺍﻓﻕ‬
‫‪100.00‬‬
‫‪2.94‬‬
‫‪2.94‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﻻ ﺃﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﺒﺸﺩﺓ‬
‫‪--‬‬
‫‪100.00‬‬
‫‪100.00‬‬
‫‪68‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ‬
‫‪Descriptions‬‬
‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺒﻌﺩ ﺘﻔﺭﻴﻎ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻀﻤﻨﺘﻬﺎ ﺃﺩﺍﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ )ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺒﺎﻨﺔ( ﻭﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬
‫ﺒـﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ )‪ ،(spss‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺍﻤﺞ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻤﻥ ﺼﺤﺔ ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪-:‬‬
‫)‪ (1‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬
‫"ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟـﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﻴـﻥ ﺍﻜﺘﺸـﺎﻑ ﺍﻷﺨﻁـﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ"‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﻠـﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﻤـﻥ ﺼﺤﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﺈﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬
‫ﺇﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺃﺴﺌﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺒﺎﻨﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (1‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺸﺘﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ )‪ (11‬ﺴﺅﺍل‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (3‬ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬
‫ﺫﻟـﻙ ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻓﺎﺩ )‪ (58‬ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﹰﺎ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻴﻤﺜﻠﻭﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ ﻗﺩﺭﻫﺎ )‪ (%85.29‬ﺒﻤﻭﺍﻓﻘﺘﻬﻡ‬
‫ﺒﺄﻨـﻪ ﺘﻭﺠـﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻗﻭﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺨﻁـﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻓﺎﺩ ﻫﺅﻻﺀ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﻭﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻔﺤﺹ ﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺘﻬﻡ‬
‫‪281‬‬
‫ﻤﺩﻯ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪...‬‬
‫ﻓـﻲ ﻋﻤـل ﺒـﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺍﻟﻤـﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﻭﻓﻲ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﻴﺩ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺼﺤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (2‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫"ﻴﺒﻴـﻥ ﺒﺄﻨـﻪ ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠـﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺩ ﺇﺭﺸﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺘﺤﺫﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﺒﻜﺭﺓ ﻹﻓﻼﺱ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﻓﺸﻠﻬﺎ ﻗﺒل‬
‫ﺇﻓﻼﺴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺒﻤﺩﺓ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ"‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﻠـﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﻤـﻥ ﺼﺤﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﺈﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬
‫ﺃﺴـﺌﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﺒﺎﻨـﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ ،(2‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺸﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ )‪ (11‬ﺴﺅﺍل‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (4‬ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬
‫ﺫﻟﻙ‪ .‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻓﺎﺩ )‪ (56‬ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﹰﺎ ﻭﻫﻡ ﻴﻤﺜﻠﻭﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ ﻗﺩﺭﻫﺎ )‪ (%82.35‬ﺒﻤﻭﺍﻓﻘﺘﻬﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺃﻨـﻪ ﺘﻭﺠـﺩ ﻋﻼﻗـﺔ ﻗﻭﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺇﺭﺸـﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺘﺤﺫﻴـﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﺒﻜﺭﺓ ﻗﺒل ﺇﻓﻼﺱ ﻭﻓﺸل ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺒﻤﺩﺓ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻗﺒل ﺇﻓﻼﺴﻬﺎ ﻭﻓﺸﻠﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﻴﺩ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺼﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (3‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‬
‫"ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟـﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﻴـﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻨـﺒﺅ ﺒﻌـﺩﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﺄﻋﻤﺎﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤﺔ"‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﻠـﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﻤـﻥ ﺼﺤﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﺈﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬
‫ﺃﺴـﺌﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﺒﺎﻨـﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ ،(3‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺸﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ )‪ (11‬ﺴﺅﺍل‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (5‬ﻴﻭﻀﺢ‬
‫ﺫﻟﻙ‪ .‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻓﺎﺩ )‪ (62‬ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﹰﺎ ﻭﻫﻡ ﻴﻤﺜﻠﻭﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ ﻗﺩﺭﻫﺎ )‪ (%91.18‬ﺒﻤﻭﺍﻓﻘﺘﻬﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺃﻨﻪ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻗﻭﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﻌﺩﻡ‬
‫ﺍﺴـﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﺄﻋﻤﺎﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﻋﻥ )‪(12‬‬
‫ﺸﻬﺭﹰﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻴﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﻴﺩ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺼﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‪.‬‬
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‫ﺠـﺭﺒـﻭﻉ‬
‫)ﺃ( ﺍﻟﻨﺘـــﺎﺌﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻴﺠـﺏ ﺍﻹﺤﺎﻁـﺔ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻗﺼﻭﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺴﻁﻴﻨﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴـﺒﻲ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﻔﺎﻫﻴﻡ ﻭﻓﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻤﺜل ﻤﺒﺩﺃ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‪،‬‬
‫ﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌـﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟـﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻗﻘﺔ ﺘﺸﻜل ﺃﺴﺎﺴﹰﺎ ﻻﺴﺘﻨﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴـﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟـﻴﺔ ﻤﺜل‪ :‬ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺒﺤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﺴﺏ ﻫﻴﻜل ﺭﺃﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤـﺎل‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﺴـﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸـﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴـﻭﻗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺠﻭﺍﻨﺏ ﻜﺜﻴﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﺎﺤﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل‪.‬‬
‫ﻤـﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﺘﺒﺎﻋﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻗﻘـﺔ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻗﺭﺍﺀﺘﻪ ﻟﻠﻨﺴﺏ ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﻴﻭﻟـﻲ ﺍﻫـﺘﻤﺎﻤﹰﺎ ﺨﺎﺼـﹰﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻜﺎﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺭﺒﺤﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﹰﺎ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭﺓ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﹰﺎ ﻁﺭﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻨﻅﺭﹰﺍ ﻷﻥ ﻓﺸل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻻ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺒﺎﻟﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻹﻓﻼﺱ ‪ ،‬ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺃﻥ ﺇﻓﻼﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‬
‫ﻤـﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤـﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻨـﻴﺔ ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺼﺩﻭﺭ ﺤﻜﻡ ﻗﻀﺎﺌﻲ ﺒﺫﻟﻙ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻹﻓﻼﺱ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘـﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻔﺸل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻗﺎﻨﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻤـﻨﻬﺎ ﺇﻨﻬـﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻜـﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻨـﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺤﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺍﺌﻨﻴﻥ ﻟﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻟﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻟﻼﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻟﻪ ﻭﻴﺘﻭﻗﻑ‬
‫ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺤﺩﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻻﺕ ﺠﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻟﻌﻼﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻗﻑ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻗﺩ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻗﺎﺩﺭﹰﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻟﻪ ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻅﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫)ﺏ( ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫* ﻴـﺭ ﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤـﺎﺕ ﻓـﻲ ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺘﻔﻴﺩ ﺃﻏﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﻻ ﺴﻴﻤﺎ ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻻﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﺸـﻙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻪ ﺃﺜﺭﻩ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ‬
‫ﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻷﻨﻪ ﻴﻭﻓﺭ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻗﻭﻴـﻡ ﺒﺩﺍﺌـل ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺩﻴل ﺍﻷﻓﻀل ﻤﺜل ﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﺎﺌﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻫﻤﻬﻡ‪.‬‬
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‫ﻤﺩﻯ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪...‬‬
‫ﻴﺠـﺏ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ ﺘﺠﻌـل ﻋﺎﺌﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﺘﺘﻨﺎﺴﺏ ﻤﻊ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﺩﻯ‬
‫ﺘﻭﺍﻓـﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤـﺎﺕ ﻭﺘﻤﺎﺜﻠﻬﺎ ﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺩﺓ ﻓﻬﻡ ﻭﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﺴـﺘﻴﻌﺎﺒﻬﻡ ﻟﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺃﻤﺭﹰﺍ ﻀﺭﻭﺭﻴﹰﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻬﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﻀـﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﻗـﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺒـﻨﻭﻙ ﺒﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﺃﺠﻬﺯﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺼﻴﻎ ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻤﺜل‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺠﻴﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭﻱ ﻭﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻜﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺴـﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟـﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺸـل ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺼﺩﺭﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ‬
‫ﻭﻴﻭﻀﺢ ﻫل ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﺄﻋﻤﺎﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺃﻡ ﻻ‪.‬‬
‫ﺘﻭﻀﻴﺢ ﻟﻠﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻓﺭﺽ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﻭﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺎﻫﻴﻡ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ‬
‫ﺒﻬﺎ ﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﻌﺴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺸل‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺄﺜﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭﻫﺎ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﻌﺎﻴـﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﻀﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻨﻔﺫ‬
‫ﺒﻭﺍﺴـﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤـﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠـﻲ ﻋـﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻴـﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﻙ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺭﺽ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻋﻤﺎل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻴﻴﺱ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺘﺄﻜـﻴﺩ ﻤﻌﻘـﻭل ﻋﻥ ﻤﺩﻯ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺨﻁﻁ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻭﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫﻫﺎ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻴﺜﺎﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻙ‪.‬‬
‫‪284‬‬
‫ﺠـﺭﺒـﻭﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴـﺔ‬
‫ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺒﺎﻟﻠﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬:‫ﺃﻭ ﹰﻻ‬
‫ "ﻤﻀﻤﻭﻥ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ‬،(1988) ،‫ ﺩﺍﻭﺩ‬،‫ ﺠﻌﻔﺭ‬/‫ ﻓﻭﺯﻱ‬،‫ ﻏﺭﺍﻴـﺒﺔ‬01
.233 – 201 ‫ ﺼﻔﺤـﺔ‬،(2) ‫ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬،(4) ‫ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺩ‬،‫ ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺃﺒﺤﺎﺙ ﺍﻟﻴﺭﻤﻭﻙ‬،"‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺃﺒﺤﺎﺙ‬،‫ "ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻭﺩﻴﺔ‬،(1995) ،‫ ﻋﺒﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﺭ‬، ‫ﻋـﺒﺩﺍﷲ‬
02
.155 – 135 ‫ ﺼﻔﺤﺔ‬،(1) ‫ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬،(11) ‫ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺩ‬،‫ﺍﻟﻴﺭﻤﻭﻙ‬
‫ ﻤﺠﻠﺔ‬،"‫ "ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﻼﻗﺔ ﻭﺃﺜﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬،(1998) ،‫ ﻤﺤﻤـﺩ ﻋﻁـﻴﺔ‬،‫ﻤﻁـﺭ‬
03
37-36 .‫ ﺹ‬،(1998 ‫ ﺃﺏ‬/‫ )ﺘﻤﻭﺯ‬،(107) ‫ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻨﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻲ‬
‫ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺒﺎﻟﻠﻐﺔ ﺍﻹﻨﺠﻠﻴﺯﻴﺔ‬:‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴ ﹰﺎ‬
01 AICPA (1988), Statement on Auditing Standards (SAS), No. 56: Analytical
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...‫ﻤﺩﻯ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
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‫ﺠـﺭﺒـﻭﻉ‬
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...‫ﻤﺩﻯ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
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288
‫ﺠـﺭﺒـﻭﻉ‬
‫ﺒﺴﻡ ﺍﷲ ﺍﻟﺭﺤﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﺤﻴﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺨﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻼﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﺯﻤﻴﻼﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﺭﻤﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻼﻡ ﻋﻠﻴﻜﻡ ﻭﺭﺤﻤﺔ ﺍﷲ ﻭﺒﺭﻜﺎﺘﻪ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﺘﻭﺠـﻪ ﺇﻟـﻴﻜﻡ ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜﺭ ﻭﺍﻻﺤﺘﺭﺍﻡ ﺭﺍﺠﻴﹰﺎ ﺘﻌﺎﻭﻨﻜﻡ ﻻﺴﺘﻜﻤﺎل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻓﻘﺔ ﻭﻋﺩﺩﻫﺎ )‪ (3‬ﺤﻭل ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‪:‬‬
‫"ﻤـﺩﻯ ﻗـﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠـﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟـﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﻔﺸل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻭﻋﺩﻡ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺘﻪ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﻏﺯﺓ – ﻓﻠﺴﻁﻴﻥ"‬
‫ﻋﻠﻤـﹰﺎ ﺒـﺄﻥ ﺠﻤـﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺴﻨﺯﻭﺩ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺴﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﺒﺴﺭﻴﺔ ﺘﺎﻤﺔ ﻭﻟﻥ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺇﻻ‬
‫ﻷﻏﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﻓﻘﻁ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﻔﻀﻠﻭﺍ ﺒﻘﺒﻭل ﻓﺎﺌﻕ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺭﺍﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‪،،،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻜﺘﻭﺭ‪ /‬ﻴﻭﺴﻑ ﻤﺤﻤﻭﺩ ﺠﺭﺒﻭﻉ‬
‫ﺃﺴﺘﺎﺫ ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻙ‬
‫ﻜﻠﻴـﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ – ﻗﺴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ‬
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‫ﻤﺩﻯ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪...‬‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺒﺎﻨﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ )‪(1‬‬
‫"ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ"‬
‫ﻡ‬
‫ﻤﻭﺍﻓﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻴﻀﺎﺤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺒﺸﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻤﻭﺍﻓﻕ‬
‫ﻤﺤﺎﻴﺩ‬
‫ﻻ‬
‫ﺃﻭﺍﻓﻕ‬
‫ﻻ‬
‫ﺃﻭﺍﻓﻕ‬
‫ﺒﺸﺩﺓ‬
‫‪ 01‬ﻫل ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻼﻋﺏ‬
‫ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺒﺎﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﻤﻥ‬
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‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺃﺠل ﺭﻓﻊ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ؟‬
‫‪ 02‬ﻫل ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻼﻋﺏ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺒﺘﺨﻔﻴﻀﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﻤﻥ‬
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‫‪4‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺃﺠل ﺍﻟﺘﻬﺭﺏ ﻤﻥ ﺩﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻀﺭﺍﺌﺏ؟‬
‫‪ 03‬ﻫل ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻼﻋﺏ‬
‫ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺒـﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻀﻬﺎ ﺒﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻋﺎﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬
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‫‪3‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺘﻀﻤﻥ ﺤﺩﹰﺍ ﺃﺩﻨﻰ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ؟‬
‫‪ 04‬ﻫـل ﻴﻤﻜـﻥ ﻟﻠﻤـﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻋـﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸـﺭﻭﻉ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﺘﺸﻑ ﺍﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ‬
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‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ؟‬
‫‪ 05‬ﻫـل ﻴﻤﻜـﻥ ﻟﻠﻤـﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻋـﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻨﺼﺢ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺒﻌﺩﻡ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ‬
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‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤ ٍﺩ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻷﻨﻪ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ؟‬
‫‪ 06‬ﻫـل ﻴﻤﻜـﻥ ﻋـﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤل ﻓﻲ ﺒﻀﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ‬
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‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡ؟‬
‫‪ 07‬ﻫـل ﻴﻤﻜـﻥ ﻋـﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﻴﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻀﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ؟‬
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‫‪ 08‬ﻫـل ﻴﻤﻜـﻥ ﻋـﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺒﺸـﺭﻜﺔ ﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﻴﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﺎﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺯﻨـﺔ؟‬
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‫ﺠـﺭﺒـﻭﻉ‬
‫‪ 09‬ﻫل ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻋﻤﻭﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺼﺎﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﻴﻑ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻭﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ؟‬
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‫‪ 10‬ﻫـل ﻴﻤﻜـﻥ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﺭﺩﻭﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﻤﺴﻤﻭﺤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒـﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺘﺴﺠﻴل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤـﺭﺩﻭﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻭﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻡ ﺒﻌﺩ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬
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‫‪2‬‬
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‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ؟‬
‫‪ 11‬ﻫـل ﻴﻤﻜـﻥ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻜل ﻤﺼﺭﻭﻑ ﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻭﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﻴﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒـﻴﺭ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺼـﺭﻭﻓﺎﺕ ﻀـﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
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‫ﻟﻠﻤﺼﺭﻭﻓﺎﺕ؟‬
‫ﻤﻊ ﺘﺤﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ‪،،،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻜﺘﻭﺭ‪ /‬ﻴﻭﺴﻑ ﻤﺤﻤﻭﺩ ﺠﺭﺒﻭﻉ‬
‫ﺃﺴﺘﺎﺫ ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻙ‬
‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ – ﻗﺴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﺴﻼﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻏﺯﺓ‬
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‫ﻤﺩﻯ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪...‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺭﻗﻡ )‪(2‬‬
‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺩ ﺇﺭﺸﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺘﺤﺫﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﺒﻜﺭﺓ ﻹﻓﻼﺱ ﻭﻓﺸل ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻗﺒل ﺇﻓﻼﺴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺒﻤﺩﺓ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻡ‬
‫ﻤﻭﺍﻓﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻴﻀﺎﺤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺒﺸﺩﺓ‬
‫‪ 01‬ﻫـل ﺘﻌـﺘﻘﺩ ﺒـﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻴﻭﺍﺠﻪ ﺍﻟﻌ‪‬ﺴﺭ ‪24‬‬
‫ﻤﻭﺍﻓﻕ‬
‫ﻤﺤﺎﻴﺩ‬
‫‪32‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫ﻻ‬
‫ـﻕ‬
‫ﻻ ﺃﻭﺍﻓـ‬
‫ﺃﻭﺍﻓﻕ‬
‫ﺒﺸﺩﺓ‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟـﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻨـﻲ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻻ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻗﺎﺩﺭﹰﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺴـﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺘﻪ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠل ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﺍﻋﻴﺩ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﻗﻬﺎ‬
‫‪ 02‬ﻫل ﺘﻌﺘﻘﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ‪26‬‬
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‫‪2‬‬
‫ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺴﺭﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻭﻴل ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺴﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‬
‫ﻻﻟﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺘﻪ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠل؟‬
‫‪ 03‬ﻫـل ﺘﻌـﺘﻘﺩ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺨﺎﻟﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻟﺸﺭﻭﻁ ‪25‬‬
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‫ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻗـﻴﺎﺕ ﺴﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻌﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺒـﺎﺡ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺴﺒﺒﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﺠﺯ ﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ؟‬
‫‪ 04‬ﻫل ﺘﻌﺘﻘﺩ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻴﻭﺍﺠﻪ ﻋ‪‬ﺴﺭﹰﺍ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﹰﺎ ‪27‬‬
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‫ﻋـﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻻ ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﺈﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻠﺔ ﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟـﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﺔ؟‬
‫‪ 05‬ﻫـل ﺘﻌـﺘﻘﺩ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﺒﻁﻠﺏ ﺩﻋﻡ ‪26‬‬
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‫ﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﻴﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺴﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺘﻪ‬
‫ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠل ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﺇﻓﻼﺴﻪ؟‬
‫‪ 06‬ﻫـل ﺘﻌـﺘﻘﺩ ﺃﻨـﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﻀـﺕ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ‪26‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸـﺭﻭﻉ ﻋـﻥ ﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻔﻪ ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻤﻌﺩل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﺌﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺎﺜﻠﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﻴﻤﺜل ﻓﺸل ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ؟‬
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‫‪1‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺠـﺭﺒـﻭﻉ‬
‫‪ 07‬ﻫل ﺘﻌﺘﻘﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻟﻘﺩﺭﺘﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪28‬‬
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‫‪2‬‬
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‫‪4‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗـﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﻭﻋـﺩﻡ ﻗﺩﺭﺘـﻪ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺴـﺩﺍﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟـﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺃﻴﺔ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻴ‪‬ﺴﺒﺏ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻓﺸل ﻤﺎﻟﻲ؟‬
‫‪ 08‬ﻫـل ﺘﻌﺘﻘﺩ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻟﻡ ﻴﺴﺘﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ‪24‬‬
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‫ﺍﻟﻌ‪‬ﺴـﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟـﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﺸﻜل ﻓﺸل ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻗﺎﻨﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﻹﺸﻬﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﻓﻼﺱ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ؟‬
‫‪ 09‬ﻫـل ﺘﻌـﺘﻘﺩ ﺒـﺄﻥ ﺇﻨﻬـﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻜﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻨﻲ ‪19‬‬
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‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸـﺭﻭﻉ ﻴﺘﺭﺘـﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺘﺤﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺍﺌﻨﻴـﻥ ﺨﺴـﺎﺌﺭ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻟﺏ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ؟‬
‫‪ 10‬ﻫل ﺘﻌﺘﻘﺩ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻟﻠﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ‪20‬‬
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‫‪10‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﻘﻴـﻴﻡ ﺭﺒﺤـﻴﺔ ﻭﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻭﻤﺩﻯ‬
‫ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺘﻪ ﻭﺍﻟﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻬﺎ؟‬
‫‪ 11‬ﻫل ﺘﻌﺘﻘﺩ ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﻟﻭ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺸﻜل ‪19‬‬
‫‪37‬‬
‫‪9‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺃﻓﻀـل ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺨـﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺇﺭﺸﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺘﺤﺫﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤـﺒﻜﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺃﺼﺎﺒﺕ‬
‫ﺸﺭﻕ ﺁﺴﻴــﺎ؟‬
‫ﻤﻊ ﺘﺤﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ‪،،،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻜﺘﻭﺭ‪ /‬ﻴﻭﺴﻑ ﻤﺤﻤﻭﺩ ﺠﺭﺒﻭﻉ‬
‫ﺃﺴﺘﺎﺫ ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻙ‬
‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ – ﻗﺴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﺴﻼﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻏﺯﺓ‬
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‫ﻤﺩﻯ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪...‬‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺒﺎﻨﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ )‪(3‬‬
‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﻌﺩﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﺄﻋﻤﺎﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤـﺔ‬
‫ﻡ‬
‫ﻤﻭﺍﻓﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻴﻀﺎﺤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺒﺸﺩﺓ‬
‫‪ 01‬ﻫـل ﺘﻌـﺘﻘﺩ ﺒـﺄﻥ ﻓﺭﺽ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻴﻠﺯﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ‪20‬‬
‫ﻤﻭﺍﻓﻕ‬
‫ﻤﺤﺎﻴﺩ‬
‫‪42‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﻻ‬
‫ﺃﻭﺍﻓﻕ‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﻻ‬
‫ﺃﻭﺍﻓﻕ‬
‫ﺒﺸﺩﺓ‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻅﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤـﺔ؟‬
‫‪ 02‬ﻫـل ﺘﻌﺘﻘﺩ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻓﺭﺽ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻴﻠﺯﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﺒﻌﺩﻡ ‪22‬‬
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‫‪1‬‬
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‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤل ﺃﻭ ﺘﻘﻠﻴﺹ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻟﻪ ﺒﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ؟‬
‫‪ 03‬ﻫل ﺘﻌﺘﻘﺩ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻓﺭﺽ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ ‪18‬‬
‫‪44‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺘﺼـﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸـﺭﻭﻉ ﻷﻨﻪ ﻴﺭﺴﻡ ﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺴﻴﺌﺔ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻲ ﻟﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ؟‬
‫‪ 04‬ﻫـل ﻴﻌﺘـﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﺴﺌﻭ ﹰﻻ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﻤﺩﻯ ‪17‬‬
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‫‪2‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫ﻗـﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻟﻼﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻟﻪ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻬﺎ ﻴﺘﻡ ﻋﻤل ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ؟‬
‫‪ 05‬ﻫـل ﺘﻌﺘﻘﺩ ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ‪18‬‬
‫‪44‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﻘـﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﺄﻋﻤﺎﻟﻪ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻤﺜل ﺼﻌﻭﺒﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟﺴـﻴﻭﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺘﺠـﺎﻩ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﻟﻼﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻴﺠﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻔﻅ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭﻩ؟‬
‫‪ 06‬ﻫـل ﺘﻌﺘﻘﺩ ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ‪24‬‬
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‫‪3‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﻟﻼﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻟﻪ‪ ،‬ﻴﺠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻻﻤﺘﻨﺎﻉ ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﺇﺒﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﻱ ؟‬
‫‪ 07‬ﻫل ﺘﻌﺘﻘﺩ ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‪23 ،‬‬
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‫‪3‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﻴﺠـﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻻﻨﺴﺤﺎﺏ ﻤﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺃﺨﺫ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻨﻲ؟‬
‫‪ 08‬ﻫـل ﺘﻌـﺘﻘﺩ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻓﺸل ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺇﺭﺸﺎﺩﺍﺕ ‪20‬‬
‫ﺘﺤﺫﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﺒﻜﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻓﺸل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻴﺏ ﻟﻪ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻌﺩﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ؟‬
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‫‪42‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺠـﺭﺒـﻭﻉ‬
‫‪ 09‬ﻫـل ﺘﻌـﺘﻘﺩ ﺒـﺄﻥ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪22‬‬
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‫‪2‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻪ ﺭﺩ ﻓﻌل ﺴﺎﻟﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ؟‬
‫‪ 10‬ﻫـل ﺘﻌـﺘﻘﺩ ﺒﺄﻨـﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺼﻌﻭﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ‪18‬‬
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‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺭﻴﺠﻲ ﻟﻸﺭﺒﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‬
‫ﺒﻌﻤﻠـﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ ﻭﺇﺤﺠﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ‬
‫ﻟﻪ‪ ،‬ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺘﻪ؟‬
‫‪ 11‬ﻫـل ﺘﻌـﺘﻘﺩ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺒﻬﺎ ‪18‬‬
‫‪44‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺒﻌـﺽ ﺨـﺒﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠـﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻤﺜل ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟـﻲ ﺍﻷﺼـﻭل‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺭﺒـﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﺠﺯﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺼـﻭل ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‪ ،‬ﻟﻬﺎ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﺎﻹﻓﻼﺱ ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ؟‬
‫ﻤﻊ ﺘﺤﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ‪،،،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻜﺘﻭﺭ‪ /‬ﻴﻭﺴﻑ ﻤﺤﻤﻭﺩ ﺠﺭﺒﻭﻉ‬
‫ﺃﺴﺘﺎﺫ ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻙ‬
‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ – ﻗﺴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﺴﻼﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻏﺯﺓ‬
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