Employment and
the circular economy
Infographic
Britain faces huge economic challenges in its use
of labour and scarce natural resources. Although
unemployment is now falling, the risk of being
out of work is higher in some regions and for
some types of occupations. And supply risks
in an increasingly competitive global economy
mean we must get better at using natural
resources. Our analysis shows that these
challenges are linked, as improving Britain’s
resource efficiency could also significantly
benefit the labour market.
Developing a circular economy involves a major
industrial transition. In the past, industrial
developments have often involved using less
labour, creating high unemployment in some
regions or for some categories of workers. By
contrast, the growth of the circular economy
should involve using resources more efficiently,
but with more labour. And, significantly, this
growth in employment is likely to be experienced
right across the country, concentrated among
occupational groups where unemployment is
high, such as the low skilled, or in skilled
occupations where large numbers of jobs are
projected to be lost in the future.
Our illustrative calculations suggest that, if the
current trend towards greater resource efficiency
continues, the growth of the circular economy
could reduce unemployment by about 54,000
and offset around seven per cent of the expected
decline in skilled employment. Even more
extensive development of the circular economy
has the potential to reduce unemployment by
around 102,000 and offset nearly a fifth of the
expected loss in skilled employment.
The UK is becoming more efficient at using resources 1...
Resources
wasted
2000
2010
210 million
tonnes
160 million
tonnes
50 million
tonnes
Resources
recycled
115 million
tonnes
520 million
tonnes
420 million
tonnes
Resources
extracted or
imported
...if this continues, employment in the circular economy
should keep growing 2
Actual employment in circular economy activity in 2008 and 2012, and potential employment to 2030,
based on the current path of development
667,000
452,000
462,000
2008
2012
2030
It can also create additional jobs where unemployment is higher 3
Unemployment rate in UK regions, June-August 2014
Potential net job creation in circular economy activity to
2030 at current growth rate (as a percentage of labour
force)
Scotland
5.5%
Scotland
0.07%
North East
0.54%
(6,948 jobs)
North East
9.3%
North West
6.7%
Wales
6.5%
West Midlands
7.5%
North West
0.24%
(8,474 jobs)
East Midlands
5.5%
Wales
0.23%
East England
4.9%
West Midlands
0.39%
(10,659 jobs)
London
6.6%
South East
4.7%
South West
4.6%
Yorkshire
& the Humber
0.30%
(7,978 jobs)
Yorkshire
& the Humber
7%
East Midlands
0.08%
East England
0.01%
London
0.12%
Different circular economy activities offer different
skill opportunities 4
Activity
Higher value, closed loop recycling
Lower value, open loop recycling
Servitisation (services instead of products)
Remanufacturing
Reuse
Biorefining
Low skilled
Skilled
Professional
...and there is the potential to create proportionally more jobs in
occupations with high unemployment 5
Net job creation
potential by occupation
under the current
Net job creation
development path
potential by occupation
to 2030 (as a
under the current
percentage of the
development path
labour force)
to 2030 (as a
percentage of the
labour force)
Current occupational
unemployment (as
a percentage of the
Current occupational
labour force)
unemployment (as
a percentage of the
labour force)
0.74%
0.61%
0.74%
0.24%
0.12%
0.24%
0.12%
3.69%
0.61%
0.28%
0.28%
4.34%
3.69%
5.77%
4.34%
5.77%
7.85%
7.85%
Sales
and customer
services
Sales
and customer
services
Administration
and secretarial
Administration
and secretarial
9.74%
Skilled
Operatives
9.74%
Elementary
Skilled
Operatives
Elementary
...and also help to address the projected decline in low skilled and
mid level occupations 6
Net job creation
potential by occupation
under the current
Net job creation
development path
potential by occupation
to 2030 (as a
under the current
percentage of the
development path
labour force)
to 2030 (as a
percentage of the
labour force)
Expected change
in occupational
employment to 2022 (%)
Expected change
in occupational
employment to 2022 (%)
0.74%
0.61%
0.74%
0.24%
0.12%
0.24%
0.12%
0.61%
0.28%
0.28%
-2.4%
-2.0%
-2.4%
-2.0%
-8.7%
-8.7%
-10.8%
-10.8%
-12.9%
Sales
and customer
services
Sales
and customer
services
-12.9%
Administration
and secretarial
Administration
and secretarial
Skilled
Operatives
Elementary
Skilled
Operatives
Elementary
Because it helps tackle regional and occupational unemployment,
over a quarter of new jobs in Britain’s circular economy to 2030 could
be net jobs 7
Re
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Bio
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a n u fa c tu r i ng
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54,000
rv
lin
Se
g
Rem
net jobs created in the circular
economy out of a potential
total of 205,000 to 2030
iti
sa
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Open
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Data sources
1Note: ‘Resources wasted’ covers all materials going to any
waste disposal route. Some of the materials flowing into the
economy are consumed directly, for example food and drink,
or are dissipative outputs to land and air, while others are
absorbed into fixed assets and infrastructure and are
available for future recovery. Resources extracted or
imported include biomass, metals, minerals and products.
Source: ONS and WRAP calculations
2Historical data: ONS Business register and employment
survey (BRES), for details of the compilation of these figures
see J Morgan and P Mitchell, 2015, Opportunities to tackle
Britain’s labour market challenges through growth in the
circular economy, Green Alliance/WRAP; future scenario for
the circular economy: Green Alliance and WRAP calculations,
see J Morgan and P Mitchell, 2015, op cit
3Historical data: ONS, Labour force survey, October 2014;
future net jobs scenario for the circular economy, Green
Alliance and WRAP calculations, see J Morgan and P Mitchell,
2015, op cit
4Green Alliance and WRAP, see J Morgan and P Mitchell, 2015,
op cit
5Uses Standard Occupational Classification (2010). Historical
data: ONS, Labour force survey, October 2014; future net jobs
scenario for the circular economy, Green Alliance and WRAP
calculations, see J Morgan and P Mitchell, 2015, op cit
6Expected decline in occupational employment to 2022:
UKCES, March 2014, Working futures, evidence report 83,
UK Commission for Employment and Skills; future net jobs
scenario for the circular economy, Green Alliance and WRAP
calculations, see J Morgan and P Mitchell, 2015, op cit
7Green Alliance and WRAP, see J Morgan and P Mitchell,
2015, op cit
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