Changes Attributable to Pesticides in Egg Breakage Frequency and Eggshell Thickness in Some British Birds Author(s): D. A. Ratcliffe Reviewed work(s): Source: Journal of Applied Ecology, Vol. 7, No. 1 (Apr., 1970), pp. 67-115 Published by: British Ecological Society Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2401613 . Accessed: 24/01/2012 22:35 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. British Ecological Society is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Journal of Applied Ecology. http://www.jstor.org CHANGES ATTRIBUTABLE TO PESTICIDES IN EGG BREAKAGE FREQUENCY AND EGGSHELL THICKNESS IN SOME BRITISH BIRDS BY D. A. RATCLIFFE Station, Monks WoodExperimental The NatureConservancy, AbbotsRipton,Huntingdon INTRODUCTION Beforethe late 1940s it was a rare eventforbrokeneggs to be foundin the nestsof and sparrowhawk peregrine(Falco peregrinus) (Accipiternisus),butfrom1951 onwards, of clutchdepletionsin whicheggswereeither bothspecieshave showna highfrequency was not found broken, or disappearedin circumstanceswhere human interference birds their destroyed indicatedas thecause. In mostinstancesit appearedthattheparent own eggs,eitherby eatingor by breakingand/orejectingthem(Ratcliffe1958, 1960). Scottishgolden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos)also showedan unusuallyhighfrequencyof egg breakage,again attributableto parentaldestruction,during1960-63 (Lockie & becamefrequentbefore Ratcliffe1964). Althoughgolden eagle egg breakageevidently 1960 (Ratcliffe1960), lack of earlierobservationsmade accuratedatingof the change An examinationof the eggshellsof peregrineand sparrowhawkhas recently difficult. decreasein weight(thickness)occurredin bothduring disclosedthata highlysignificant 1946-50, and has been maintainedever since; golden eagle eggshellsshowed a less decreasein weight(thickness), datingfromaround1951 markedbutstillhighlysignificant setsout in greaterdetail The to paper 1966 present 1967a). (Ratcliffe and continuing up and changein eggshellweight,and discussesthecorrelatheevidenceforeggdestruction declinein population to thewell-established tionbetweenthesephenomena;relationships three are togetherwith the in these examined, success* species status and breeding has extendedto other been The study to be responsible. believed changes environmental of other bird types. and a wider range raptors RECENT FREQUENCY OF EGG BREAKAGE Beforeabout 1950, Britishperegrineshad a mean clutchsize of 3f5eggs and a mean one egg fledgedbrood size of 2 5 young(Ratcliffe1963a, 1967b).On average,therefore, the main causes of in everysuccessfulnestingfailed to produce a fledgedyoungster, or deathof embryos)and nestling of eggs(throughinfertility failurebeingnon-hatching Some failuresinvolvedbreakageor unexplaineddisappearanceof one or two mortality. eggsduringincubation(total failures,as throughthe takingof wholeclutches,are disregarded),but Table 1 suggeststhatduringthe firsthalfof thiscentury,partialclutch cause of thedisparitybetweenclutchand brood size. depletionwas an infrequent By contrast,forthepost-1950period,in a total of 208 peregrineeyrieswitheggs,no involvingbreakage certainly lessthaneighty-one depletedclutcheswereknown(fifty-one ten-foldincreasein thisphenomenon,from400 of one or moreeggs); an approximately * ofa population. to thetotaloutputofyoung(i.e. productivity) Breedingsuccessin thispaperrefers 67 68 Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds -4 tn 'it 0 t- 0 0 Rt z C) xn 0 eq cq 00 00 4-1 Rt 00 It 0 0 Q> W C*-, o cd O.W 0 (7N 4-4 L. 0 o 0 . = V-4 Z 0 0 C's bb ;.., Q> 0 0 Cd +_ oo -4 't Cld C) eq lqt lqt C14 Cd 17* ci 10 100 it en Itt ol t en ;.4 .0 '.0 110 v qJ C) C) 0 z 4. 00 C) 0 0 0 4) ;-4 Q o 4- 0 -0 cd > Cld 0 0 0 Cd > cd 5 W CD o >. pq Cd Cd OD Cd Cd W ct$ cd _+_. -o = 0 0 0!4 0 64 W Cd Cd 0 0 f4a .0 Cd '161 cd F "Z; 0 :3 C) C) 0 ;-4 Cd Cd 5 cd ce t;r4 _4- +4 w +4 64 C)o 0 C) w .1W 4.1 C.) +3 Z oj ce Cd la Cd o cdC. C) t cd s-4 w +3 0 tj z C) 0 z 0 U2 Rh z z = 0 'A o 0 o 52 z z z w z > 04 0 Cd C's C'd en t- en en C) in C) in 110 v) N o 00 o ,C ,C o 4-4 0 ml o 00 +.. Cd Cd 0 0 Cd cl cld PO > C) 0 > 0 cd E54 Cd 0 C) cl Cd ce pq z 0 Q'o +1 -! 0 Cd w w pq Cd +- C) a 0 cd Cd cd 10 0 0 t 0 cl D. A. RATCLIFFE 69 to 3900. Duringtheperiod1961-66,mean brood size in northern Englandand southern Scotland(wherethemajorityof depletionshave beenfound)was only1P5and 1P7young respectively, comparedwiththeformernationalaverageof 2-5 young.Mean clutchsize has shownno decrease,in termsofeggsactuallylaid, and thisfallin brood size is largely an effectof increasedclutchdepletion.Since about 1950,egg breakagehas also been a common cause of loss of entireperegrineclutches,and thereforeof total breeding failureof manypairs. Whiletheperiodafter1950is indicatedas theera offrequent peregrine clutchdepletion, and used as thebasis forcomparisons,thephenomenonmayhave beguna littleearlier. My firstrecordof egg breakagewas in 1949,and othersingleinstanceswerenotedby D. Humphreyin Dorset in 1948,and by R. J. Birkettin Cumberlandin 1948 or 1949. While observationalbias is possible,and breakageor disappearanceof peregrineeggsis not a completely newevent,clutchdepletionin thisspecieshas clearlyoccurredwithunprecedentedfrequencyin recentyears. Moreover,the more intensiveobservationsof Birkett& Parr(Table 1) suggestthatmyown data underestimate thescale ofthephenomenon,at least since 1961. While I have reportedthe more criticalseriesof records available to me, thousandsof otherperegrineclutcheswere seen by ornithologists in Britainduringtheperiod1900-50,and it is inconceivablethateggbreakageon therecent scale could have escapednoticeand comment.Such a phenomenonwould not be overlooked by the collectingfraternity, yet when Nethersole-Thompson & NethersoleThompson (1942a) wrote on eggshelldisposal, theyknew of only two instancesof peregrineeggs beingbrokenbeforehatching.It is truethat small shell fragments can easily pass unobserved,and disappearanceof eggs withouttraceis even less likelyto attractattention,yet the testimonyof severalexperiencedobserversleaves no doubt thatfullclutchesof less than threeeggswereunusualbeforeabout 1950. Full clutchesof two eggscan be acceptedas a normalthoughinfrequent occurrence (c. 50 ) but genuinefullclutchesof one egg wereformerly rare,and the majorityof recentincubatedsingleeggsprobablyrepresent clutchesdepletedotherthanby human I saw no incubated'singles'in thirty-four intervention. eyriesbetween1945and 1950,but therewerefourteenin 176 eyriesbetween1951 and 1968,eightbeingaccompaniedby definiteremainsof brokeneggs. Of the othersix 'singles',fivecould not be examined closelyto look for accompanyingshell fragments;moreover,four of the six were in territories wherebreakagehas been provedin otheryears,and the othertwo werein hauntslittledisturbedby humans.These six 'singles'have therefore beenincludedin the Appendixlist of depletedclutches.I have omittedfromthislistany instancesin which collectingwas suspectedas a cause of eggsdisappearingwithouttrace;in thesesixty-one depletedclutches,onlysixteeninvolvedsimplytheunaccountabledisappearanceof eggs, and in ten of theseat least one egg was left. When thepost-1950data in Table 1 are analysedaccordingto district, the following geographicalpictureemerges: NorthernWales: 4 depletedclutchesout of 9 (440%) NorthernEngland: 27 depletedclutchesout of 63 (430%) SouthernScotland:38 depletedclutchesout of 96 (400%) Highlands: 12 depletedclutchesout of 40 (300%) Frequencyin the Highlandsas a whole is not significantly different (at the 500 level) fromthatin the otherthreedistrictscombined.However,data on breedingsuccessare available (mainlyfromD. Weirand A. Watson) fora morelimitedarea of thecentral 70 Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds givinga total of forty-nine Highlandsfortheperiod 1961-65; tenpairs bred regularly, were successful,with an average of 2-5 nestingsobservedand of these, forty-three youngper successfuleyrie.Althoughmosteyrieswerenot examinedclosely,onlythree definiteclutchdepletionswereknown,and as mean brood size here equalled the prelowerin thecentral of egg-losswas probablyconsiderably 1950nationallevel,frequency Highlandsthanin otherpartsof Britain. No criticaldata are availableforsouthernEnglandor southernWales,wheretheperegrinebreedingpopulationshave been close to extinctionsince 1961, and information fromIrelandis also lacking. sparrowhawknestsseen with Data on otherraptorsare scantier,but in twenty-four Englandbetween1943 and 1950,eggbreakagewas found eggsin Norfolkand northern Wales and clutchesseenin northern onlyonce,in 1947;whereaseightout oftwenty-seven northern Englandbetween1951and 1960weredepletedbybreakage(Ratcliffe1960and unpublished).Moreover,I. Prestt(personalcommunication)has numerousrecordsof clutchdepletion(ofteninvolvingegg breakage)in sparrowhawknestssince 1960, and believesthatduringrecentyearsit has been a frequentcause of smallbroodsand failed nestings.WhileCampbell(1960) reportedan instanceof eggbreakagein a sparrowhawk nest in 1927, it is apparentthat the phenomenonhas occurredwith unprecedented in thisspecies,too, sincearound 1950. frequency (1964) reportedthefollowingincidenceof eggbreakagein Scottish Lockie & Ratcliffe clutches; goldeneagle eyries:1937-50,one in nineclutches;1951-60,fourin twenty-six clutches.For an earlierperiod 1936-42, D. Nethersole1961-63,eightin twenty-two golden Thompson(unpublished)foundonlyone instanceof egg breakagein twenty-six eagle eyriesseen witheggs. Isolated instancesof egg breakagehave been notedin Britishnestsof kestrel(Falco in in 1966; D. A. Ratcliffe in 1931; D. J.Jefferies tinnunculus) (D. Nethersole-Thompson in 1968),merlin(F. columbarius)(D. A. Ratcliffein 1964; E. L. Roberts 1964), hobby (F. subbuteo)(D. Nethersole-Thompsonin 1932), common buzzard (Buteo buteo) in 1962; C. Tubbs in 1963-66)and osprey(Pandionhaliaetus)(D. Weirin (D. A. Ratcliffe of to indicatetherecentfrequency 1964).These raptorshave notbeen studiedsufficiently much comto attract not been enough frequent thisphenomenon,but it has evidently mentamongornithologists. Amongstotherbirdswhichare themselvespredatorsof eggs,brokeneggs are rarely found,but in the Corvidaetheyhave been reportedoccasionallyforthe raven(Corvus duringthelast 10 years.The majorityofbirdspecies corax)(D. Holyoak,D. A. Ratcliffe) to their eggsby predators,so thatthefindingof brokeneggsin loss and damage suffer ofthephenomenon to is be expected,and anychangein frequency someof theirnests only such as lapwing species localities, In some in predation. an increase mightwell reflect a substantial lose annually and apricarius) (Charadrius goldenplover (Vanellusvanellus) or and thiscan foxes, gulls crows, first by predation of their through layings proportion be regardedas a normalsituation.Moreover,birdswhichare themselvespredatorsof onlyamongthe eggsmay have strongdefencesagainsteatingtheirown. It is therefore raptorsthattherecentspate of eggbreakagestandsout as a strangeand unprecedented event. THE NATURE OF EGG BREAKAGE clutchesknownpersonallyby thewriterare given Details of sixty-one depletedperegrine D. A. RATCLIFFE 71 in the Appendix.These are givenas a sample; lack of space precludesmentionof the manyotherinstancesreportedby otherobservers. Breakageofperegrine eggsis indicatedbypiecesof shell,usuallyin thenest,but sometimeson ledgesor thegroundbelow.Typically,thereare comminuted angularfragments to the egg complete 2-10 mm across, but the remainsvaryfromthe tiniestfragments exceptfora gapinghole; oftenthereare large,crumpledpiecesof shellheldtogetherby the liningmembranes.The egg contentsare usuallymissing,thoughoccasionallycongealed tracesare found.The majorityof depletedclutchesshow definiteevidenceof breakage(Table 1 and Appendix),but eggssometimesdisappearwithouttraceand their fateis thenobscure.Twice,however,afterseeingeyriesin whichno traceof shellor egg came acrosstheremainsof an eggsomelittledistance contentswas visible,I accidentally away, on the open hillside. Egg loss can occurbeforethefemalehas completedherclutch,or at any pointin the incubationperiod; and it can involveanynumberof eggsin theclutch.Occasionallythe butmoreusuallyeggsare lost one wholeclutchappearsto be destroyedsimultaneously, by one duringincubation,and Table 1 (footnote)indicatesthata higherproportionof losses occurs when the incubationperiodis well advanced.Usually,once egg loss has occurred,it sooneror laterinvolvesthewholeclutch.Onlyfourof mysixty-oneeyries withdepletedclutchescertainlyproducedflyingyoung,thoughthe singleyoungsterin anotherdied,and thirteen eyrieswhichstillheldat leastone,possiblyviable,eggwerenot re-visited. In forty-four depletedclutchesitwas certainthatno youngwerereared,and in onlytwo of thesewas humanrobberyof remainingeggsknownor suspected.In fiveof theseforty-four eyries,the remainingeggs (fourc/l, one c/2) were addled and in two more,singlefertilesurvivingeggs were deserted.The taking,forchemicalanalysis,of clutcheswhich singlefresheggscould have beenan additionalcause offailurein thirteen producedno young,thoughin tenof theseeyries,all theremaining eggswerelost-sughad theybeen left. gestingthatthetesteggswould probablyalso have been destroyed, incubatedfirstclutchesusuallylay second Peregrineswhichlose freshor onlyslightly clutchesafteran intervalof 16-26days(D. Nethersole-Thompson, personalcommunication; Walpole-Bond1938),butnormallytheyseldom'repeat'whenincubationofthefirst eggswas faradvanced.In the majorityof clutcheswhichlose all theireggs,loss of the last egg occurswhenincubationis welladvanced,and thechanceof repeatsbeinglaid is loweredaccordingly, althoughin one instance(Appendix,no. 45) a repeatwas laid after the remainingaddled egg of thefirstclutchhad evidently been incubateda fullmonth. While the truefrequencyof repeatclutchesfollowingfailureof firstlayingsthrough depletion(as distinctfromhumanrobbery)is notknown,itis unlikelyto be high.Loss of a wholeclutchin themannerdescribedthususuallyspellsnestingfailurefora peregrine pairfortheyearconcerned;evenwhen'repeat'clutchesare laid, theseare likelyto suffer the same fateas thefirstlayings.My own recordscontainthreeinstancesof peregrines replacingclutcheslostbydepletion;in one (no. 25) therepeatalreadycontaineda broken and theothertwo (nos. 45 and 52) eventually eggwhenfirstseenbut was not re-visited, failed.I have, however,heard of severalreliableinstancesin whichyoungwerereared from'repeats'afterthefirstclutcheswerebroken. The patternof clutchdepletionis thus extremely variable,but the net effecton the peregrinepopulationis a loweringof outputof flying youngaccordingto thefrequency of egg loss. Breakageof goldeneagle eggs is usuallymarkedby the presenceof numerouscomminutedshellfragments in theeyrie,thesebeinglarger(5-20 mm)thanin theperegrine, 72 Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds thoughrelativelyof similarsize. Sometimeslarge pieces of shell are found,but the contentshave usuallygone. In mostinstances,the whole clutch(usuallytwo eggs)was destroyed,but in one eyriewithtwo addled eggs,theremainsof a thirdegg werefound some distancefromand below thenest.As thegoldeneagle seldomlays 'repeats'under any circumstances, egg breakagein thisspeciesusuallymeanstotalbreedingfailurefor thepairconcernedin thatyear,and was evidently an important factorin thesharpdecline in breedingsuccessof thisspeciesin thewesternHighlandsduring1961-63. Brokenremainsofsparrowhawk eggsare as oftenlyingat thefootofthenesttreeas in thenest.Usuallytheyare comminuted fragments less than10 mmacross,butoftenthere are largerfragments and I. Prestthas recordsof eggswithonlyslightdamage,and still containingmost of the contents,lyingbelow the nest as thoughsimplytipped out. Eggshellshave occasionallybeen foundat some distancefromnestswhichthemselves containedno traceof eggs.In thisspecies,egg breakageis onlysometimesthecause of totalbreedingfailureforthepairsconcerned:out ofnineinstances,sevenofthenestsstill containedat least one incubatedegg whenlast seen,and I. Prestthas knownyoungto fledgefromseveraldepletedclutches.Even so, egg breakagewould seem to contribute strongly to therecentincreasein nestingfailuresin thisspecies,and certainly to reduced total outputof young. Most of theisolatedinstancesof brokeneggsin otherraptorsinvolvedthefindingof comminutedshellfragments in or beneaththenest.The generalsimilarity of appearance of the shell remainsin all theseraptors,but especiallyin peregrine,goldeneagle and sparrowhawk, suggeststhattheproximatecause ofbreakageis thesameforeach species. PARENTAL DESTRUCTION AS THE PROXIMATE CAUSE OF EGG BREAKAGE In 1951,whenre-visiting a Lakeland eyrie(Appendix,no. 2) which3 days beforeheld threefresheggs,I watchedthefemaleperegrine eatingone ofherowneggs.Afterflushing her,I foundthe scrapecontainedlargepieces of shell,wetwiththeremainsof theconofanotheregg,withcongealedtracesofyolkand tents,and also theground-upfragments albumen,indicatingthatit had beenbrokenat leasta day.The thirdeggwas undamaged. In 1952,P. Kimberand J. Robson also watcheda femaleperegrine eatingherown eggin a NorthWales eyrie. For manyyearsafterthis,therewas no directproofthatotherbrokeneggshad been eaten by theperegrinesthemselves.The shell remainsdiscoveredin manyothereyries and largercrumpledpiecesfoundin eyrie closelyresembledthecomminutedfragments was oftensuggestedbyothercircumstances, suchas thebreakno. 2. Parentaldestruction age of eggs one by one, withoutensuingdesertion,and the brooding(by at least three females)of the brokenremainsof entireclutches.Then, in 1966, in a Galloway eyrie (Appendix,no. 50), fromwhichthebroodingfemalewas flushed,I foundtwoeggs,large ofthesamebroken piecesofshellfroma third,and a castingcontainingsmallerfragments eggshell.The castingwas certainlya peregrine's,foramongstthefeathermatrixwas a evidenceof egg-eating homingpigeonring.I regardthisas further by parentperegrines. The twoshatteredeggsfoundawayfromeyries(Appendix,nos. 5 and 23) appearedto have had theircontentseaten.Eggs whichdisappearwithouttracecould wellbe carried fromtheeyriebeforebeingeaten,the remainslyingunseenon the adjacenthillside,or consumed. theycould be entirely has beenknownbefore.Nethersole-Thompson & NethersoleEgg-eatingbyperegrines D. A. RATCLIFFE 73 Thompson(1942a) recordedthatP. M. Meeson watchedan Irishperegrine eatingone of itsown eggsin 1914,butthisegghad beendamagedpreviouslyby a fallingstone.At the famouseyrieon the Sun Life buildingin Montreal,in 1949,thefemalewas seen eating of othershad been found,and a secondclutchdisappeared an egg aftershellfragments whichsuggestedthattheperegrines in circumstances had eatentheeggs(Hall 1955).The brokeneggfoundby E. Blezardbelowa Lakelandeyriein 1924had probablybeeneaten, thoughthe femalewas sittingon foureggs in this nest; and in 1927, D. NethersoleThompsonsaw a Sussexeyriewiththreeslightly incubatedeggsand theshellfragments of a fourthegg clearlymatchingthe comminutedremainsI have so oftenfound. Egg-eatinghas not actuallybeen witnessedin the otherraptors,thougha sparrowhawkwas seento hole one ofitseggswithitsbill and thento tipthedamagedeggout of thenest(M. E. Greenhalgh,personalcommunication to I. Prestt).In theinstanceofegg breakagein a Scottishospreynest,a castingof theparentbirdcontainedfragments of shellwhichexactlymatchedthelargerpieceslyingat thefootof thenest tree(D. Weir, unpublished).Otherwildbirdspeciescertainly eat theirowneggson occasion(e.g. thejay (Garrulusglandarius)Goodwin 1956), and the phenomenonis well knownin domestic fowl.A male heron(Ardea cinerea)underclose observationwas seen severaltimesto incubationbypiercingan egg,tastingthe contentsand thenflicking interrupt theremains out of thenest(Millstein,Prestt& Bell, in press). Two considerations arise; first,theremay be otherimportantdirectcauses of clutch and secondly,parentaleggdestruction is itselfpresumably depletionbesidesegg-breaking, theexpressionof otherindirectcausativefactorswhichstillhave to be identified. Moreover,a factorwhichcan be a directcause of egg breakagemay also operateindirectly, is to determinethe relative throughits effecton behaviour.The problem,therefore, importanceof parentaldestructionas a cause of clutchdepletion,and to identifythe factorsresponsibleforthisbehaviour. underlying OTHER POSSIBLE CAUSES OF EGG BREAKAGE Predationcannot be acceptedas a probable frequentdirectcause of egg breakagein fewauthenticrecordsof non-humanpredatorsraiding raptornests.Thereare extremely thenestsof Britishraptors,and thereis no evidenceof a significant increasein possible predators,or of a changein behaviourof thesepredators,after1950,in the areas conthateggs of peregrine,sparrowhawkand goldeneagle were cerned.Recentstatements destroyedbycrowshaveinvariablyturnedout to be surmisesbased merelyon thefinding of brokeneggshells. It has been suggestedthatthe increasein raptoregg breakageis connectedwiththe In thearea wheremostclutch post-1945increasein humaninvasionof thecountryside. depletionswerefound,therehas been collectingof raptoreggsfornearlya century, but thispaperdeals explicitly withinstancesofeggloss whichcannotbe attributed to directly humanintervention. Collectorsseldomtake onlypartof a clutch,and it is inconceivable thatpeople could be directlyresponsibleforegg breakageon thescale described.There fromcasual humandisturbance. are, however,thepossibilitiesof adverseindirecteffects From suchanalogiesas theeatingofyoungbytamerabbitsthroughhumandisturbance, it could be that,whileparentalegg-eating is indeedtheusual proximatecause of clutch depletion,it is a stressreactioninducedby the presenceof humansat or neartheeyrie. Armstrong (1947) has cataloguedinstancesof both egg and nestdestruction by parent reactions'usuallyoccasionedby human, birds,and regardstheseas typical'displacement 74 Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds oftheincubate.g. suddenflushing is thatsuchinterference, presence.Anotherpossibility ing bird,could increasethe chancesof accidentaldamage to eggsin the nest.It is also could eithermake the ownersdeserttheirnests,wherepossiblethathumandisturbance upon predatorswould destroythe eggs; or simplythatpredatorssuch as crowswould have a greaterchanceof raidingnestswhenthedisturbedownerswereon thewing. as an invalid Thereare twomainreasonsforregarding thiskindofhumaninterference explanationof theegg breakagephenomenon.First,thisincreasein humandisturbance is verylocal, and manyinstancesof clutchdepletionwerein remotecountryor sequesteredplaces wherefewpeople everpenetrate;moreover,manyof theraptornestscontainingbrokeneggsshowedno signsof havingbeen visitedpreviouslyby otherhumans duringthe same season. Secondly,many raptornestswere subjectedto considerable humandisturbancebeforethelast war,but withoutegg breakageresulting;thisdisturbance involvedthedeliberateand oftenrepeatedvisitingofnests,or thecasual and excessive disturbanceof nestinghaunts,such as that obtainingon some of the Kent and before1939. Sussex cliffsregularlyoccupiedby breedingperegrines In Cornwall,Treleaven(1961) foundthat after1955 the failureof certainperegrine eyriesto produceyoungcoincidedwiththe appearanceof extrafemales,whichsometimesfoughtwiththeestablishedfalcons.This antagonismwas usuallythepreludeto the desertionof the particulareyriesand, althoughthese were not examinedclosely,by it has been a not implicationthe eggsweredestroyedor abandoned.In manydistricts, ofeithersex,to appear infrequent event,bothbeforeand after1950,fora thirdperegrine, whenthe occupyingpair are flyingaround afterbeing disturbedfromtheireyrieby and occupants,but sometimes humans.Usuallythereis no antagonismbetweenintruder (unfightingoccurs. Before 1939, Walpole-Bond (1938) and Nethersole-Thompson interaction denseperegrine population amongsttheparticularly published)notedfrequent of the Sussex coast; theyfound that some intruderswere toleratedand otherswere attacked,but egg breakageremaineda rare event.In 1936,W. C. Lawrie (see Blezard 1946) photographedtwo femaleperegrinesstandingtogetheron a Lakeland eyriewith foureggs,one birdbeingin an aggressive pose, butfouryoungflewfromthiseyrie.I have betweenthe occupantpair knownthreeinstances,all in southernScotland,of fighting and an intruding peregrine:in thefirst,in 1949,therewas an eyriewithone of theeggs broken(Appendix,no. 1); whilein the othertwo,in 1960 and 1966,the occupantshad eitherfailedto lay or losttheireggs.D. Weir(in preparation)also foundthatan instance in Speysidein 1968was associatedwithpersistent of nestingfailurebya pair ofperegrines interference by an intruderfemale. The associationof nestingfailurewithintraspecific interactionthusappears to have been mainlya featureof recentyears.It is doubtfulwhether'intrusion'at eyrieshas increasedgenerally,and myown observationsdo not suggestthatit is a normaleventat eyrieswithdepletedclutches;but perhapsbirdswhichhave brokentheirown eggs or failedto lay mightbe inclinedto visitand disturbneighbouring pairs. Obviously,any scuffles at eyriescould easilydamageeggs,theintruder mightbreakthem,or stressmight develop in the owners,causingthemto destroytheirown eggs. However,even if the oftheabove kind, ofeggbreakagewereassociatedwithinteractions recenthighfrequency been an in theremust necessarilyhave change populationbalance or unprecedented in has to be turn. Such effects and this have not been intraspecific explained behaviour, with Potts found that were correlated for other they raptors,though (1968) suggested the in shag(Phalacrocoraxaristotelis). egg breakage interaction could In conclusion.whilepredation,humandisturbanceand intraspecific D. A. RATCLIFFE 75 accountforoccasionalor local egg breakagein raptornests,theyare totallyinadequate as a generalexplanation,bearingin mindthe scale of thisphenomenon.The following in theraptorsconcerned, a prevalentchangein eggshellthickness section,demonstrating moreor lesscoincidentin timewiththeonsetofwidespreadeggbreakage,makesparental destructionan entirelyfeasiblegeneral explanationof this phenomenon,though it the searchforan ultimatecause. throwsback stillfurther DECREASE IN EGGSHELL WEIGHT An examinationofeggshellstakenfromvariouspartsof Britainduringthelast 100years been a highly and goldeneagletherehas recently sparrowhawk showedthatin peregrine, and widespreaddecreasein eggshellweight,withoutanyparallelreductionin significant 1967a).Measurements size,and thatthischangehas beenmaintainedeversince(Ratcliffe eggshells(see Appendix,p. 112) revealedthatthis of severalperegrine and sparrowhawk changehas involveda decreasein shellthickness,but thatthedecreasein weightis not also be involved. whollyaccountablein thisway; decreasein shelldensitycould therefore Both kinds of changeimplydecreasedstructuralstrengthof eggshellsand, hence,increasedchancesofaccidentalmechanicaldamageto eggsin thenest,as wellas metabolic changein theparentbird.McNally(1965) foundthatin domesticpoultry,thepercentage as the eggshellweightdecreasedfrom6-0g to of eggscrackedincreasedlogarithmically 3 5 g and thattherewas an incidenceofcrackingsubstantially higherthannormalin eggs withshellsmorethan0-6 g below thecalculatedweightforthesize. Eggshellsweighing over6-0g wereseldombrokenundergood handlingconditions. The parameterused to measureeggshellsin thisstudyexpressesrelativeweightand is knownas 'the eggshellindex'; it is explainedin theAppendix(p. 113). Peregrine Eggshellindex in this species shows a sudden and unprecedenteddecreaseduring 1946-48 (Figs. 1 and 2). Values for eggs takenfromvariousparts of Britain(mainly southernEngland,northernEngland and southernScotland) during1947-69 are, on Britishand average,19 1% lessthanthosefora sampletakenduring1900-46.Forty-nine in p. Ootheca (see Appendix, Wolleyana (1845-65) continental Europeanperegrineeggs from different the 1900-46 British sample; not show mean index significantly a 111) moreoverthedecreasewas foundwithineach of thetwelvecollectionswhichcontained pre-1947and post-1946eggshells.The eggshellchangeis thusnotan artifactconnected of thespecimens. withage or treatment Before1947,therewereno significant geographicalvariationsin mean peregrineeggshellindexwithintheBritishIsles. Since 1947,eggshellsfrominlandareas of thecentral and easternScottishHighlandshave showna muchsmallerdecrease(4.40 O) in meanindex thanthosefromotherpartsof Britain(Table 2). In fact,theonlypost-1946eggshells examinedwhichcould be describedas havinga 'normal'indexare eightof the sixteen specimensfromthispart of Scotland (Fig. 1). All ten of the post-1946eggsfromthe westernHighlandsare of sub-normalindex. Sparrowhawk overalldecrease The situationin thisspeciesis similar:a suddenand unprecedented froma fallin weight in mean eggshellindex(17-2%) during1946-50,resultingentirely (Figs. 3 and 4). Whileno recentHighlandeggshave been examined,veryfewpost-1947 Pesticidesand eggbreakagein birds 76 eggshellsof'normal'indexhaveyetbeenfound;buteggshellsfromsouth-eastern England have showna significantly greaterdecreasein index(2-9" against13-9y0) thanthose fromotherdistricts, althoughno regionalvariationwas apparentbefore1947(Table 3). Goldeneagle Fewer data are availableforthisspecies,especiallyduringthe earlypost-warperiod, and thoughtherehas been a highlysignificant decreasein meaneggshellindexof 9.900, The earliestpost-1946specimen theonsetofthischangecannotbe datedwithconfidence. 2-302-20- 2190 1 1.* t -CP E E * 1.80 -:;.!i,j E1-70- . . .* 1~ ~ 8... 0 %IS * ~ . 3 0 ;iy , * .* . o 60 1- ; 1-50 -.: . 140 :-; 130 -. 1-20I 10 1*00 1900 1910 1920 1930 Year 1940 1950 1960 1970 in Britain.0, index(relativeweight)of theperegrine FIG. 1. Changein timeof eggshell fromtheCentralandEast ScottishHighlands;*, eggshellsfromotherdistricts Eggshells (see Table 2). availablefromwesternScotlandwas in 1951and had an indexof 2-83; a clutchfromthe same territory in 1952 had a mean indexof 2-82. Eggshellsof sub-normalweightwere regardedas theonsetof subsequentlyusual in thisregion,so that 1951is provisionally change.However,the decreaseapplied to eggsfromwesternScotlandonly,thosefrom thecentraland easternHighlandsshowingno change(Table 4). Otherspecies The studywas extendedto theeggsof otherraptors,and a widerrangeof otherbird to and ecologically. The studywas,however,confined bothphylogenetically typesdiffering c'J 0~~~~~~~~ 0 0 * * . . *.o. * . * . * o o .. * *~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. * 8.. _ * ? * I * * o- ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~~0 0 * ~~~~~~~~~~~~~* * * ????-'O * ee** * * O oE ., * * .3... - 0 0 0 ~ ~~ 0) 33 ~ o e. * '0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ o W ~~* C * 0 a'- . 0 a)~~~~~~~~~~0 . - 0 U) a) ~~~~i o 0t 6 0 * 0? C'J 0 a) ro c E 0 09 (~~~~~0 r~~~~~~o a') & (b)I~~~~M C'J a') - 0 0 0~~~~~ a)t (0 ~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~ ~ ~ ~ j, 0 . 0 ~ * a~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 0 O 04 ?~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I 1'-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 0 N O * ,.* ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 0 .\J 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~" 0')~~~~~~~~~~~ 0 . 0 01 r 0 0 . * . 1C 0 0 %. * a) O 0~~~~~~~~~~ 0 ') ) (\0' 0 C C'\ 78 Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds mediumsized or largebirds,as the delicateeggshellsof smallspeciespose problemsin measurement. The resultsare givenin Table 5. No geographicalsub-division was made forthesespecies,becauseeithertherewereno indicationsofregionalvariationin eggshell indices,or the data weretoo fewto testthispossibility.The kestrelshoweda smaller decreasein mean eggshellindex(4.90 .), beginningin 1946,whilethemerlinand hobby showeddecreasesof 12-7y.and 5-2y. respectively, beginningin 1951 and 1952. In all threespeciesit appearsthattheeggshellsofcertainindividualshave undergonea marked Table 2. Comparisons ofperegrineeggshellindicesbetweendifferent periodsand regions Regionand period Mean index + S.E. (1) All regionsof 1-866 + 0-021 Britainand northern Europe1847-65 (2) All regionsof 1-836 ? 0007 BritishIsles 1901-46 (3) All regionsof BritishIsles 1901-46 (4) All regionsof BritishIsles 1901-46 (5) All regionsof BritishIsles 1901-46 (6) All regionsof British Isles 1901-46 (7) All regionsof British Isles 1901-46 (8) All regionsof BritishIsles 1901-46 1P836 ? 0007 1-836 + 0007 1-836 + 0007 1P836 0 007 1-836 ?0 007 1-836 ? 0007 No. of eggs Regionand period 49 All regionsof BritishIsles 1901-46 509 All regionsof BritishIsles (excl.Centraland East Highlands) 1947-69 509 Centraland East Highlands 1949-69 509 WestHighlands ofScotland 1956-68 509 Southern Scotland 1958-69 509 Northern England 1947-69 509 Wales 1947-54 509 Southern England 1947-59 00 Mean No. of Significance of index eggs differ- difference + S.E. ence betweenmeans (t-test) 1-836 509 -1-6 Not ? 0007 significant 1-485 + 0011 211 -19 1 <0 001 1-755 ? 0 037 16 -4-4 < 0 05 1-414 + 0-028 10 -23.0 < 0 001 1 432 + 0-023 29 -22-0 < 0 001 1-473 ? 0-020 79 -19-8 <0 001 1-628 13 -11P4 <0 001 1-503 + 0-014 75 -18-1 <0 001 +0-051 in eggshellindicesfordifferent Thereare no significant differences regionsoftheBritishIsles before 1947,butas someregionalsamplesare small,theoverallBritishmeanindexhas beenusedas thebasis of comparison forthisearlierperiod. decreasein index whereasthose of othersare unchanged.There is not a significant decreasein thecommonbuzzard,thoughin thisspeciestheeggshellindexseemsto show an unusuallyhighvariancebothbeforeand after1947.OnlyeightrecentBritisheggshells are availablefortheosprey,but as theyshow a 21P24%decreasein eggshellindexcompared withan oldersample,thisis clearlya speciesin need of further study. Among the Corvidae,the ravenshows no significant change,but in both rook and carrioncrowthereis a smallyetsignificant decreasein eggshellindexof 5.000 and 4800 and blackThreemoorlandbreedingspecies,thegoldenplover,greenshank respectively. D. A. RATCLIFFE 79 180 170 160 0 - 60 ; *~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~I50 * 1 ? 150 _-* E .: _ .,,, * . * XP . 0 *0 0 J *Cs g ~0? ; 120~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ - s *~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ O O "0 J 10 1*0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0 *s . I*30 " oo so 0 * " * O " oO ? 0E *+x". 9 as0~~~~~~Ya _ 1a,Eghel 30 pi (1) Stet 4 C EnGl02? (1 (2) eg EnlnT pi an3). rmot-astr id 920 6 England South-east + 0 013 ?0013 1-418 68 +0-00 1902-46~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~C Ise (3l Oh regionis (2 outhEagstel f ()AlRegionsa British Isles 1902-46 1942 230 + 0-0 + 05 No c +001 England~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~C Briis 0 fromohrdsics(e eg d tigicn 68 1ot-eas 101 England tri *, egseO ine Ohregos 1902-46 England South-east Enln 20 +0010~~~~0n 1-121~co 010 1976 Brts + 145 0 008 129 +05 No significant0 0 -0f9 00 4 <01 0 cm01 Ise i 42 20 her 418 68thestrSouth-asta 423 298n ofRegions All a178 ? 0008o gg Britis Isles 0 bw regions000 121 frm00edsrit(e -2gsell 129 279n ?r0008fernc -172 <0%igifca1 1947-67 headed gull,showno significant change.Of thesea birdsstudied,thekittiwake, razorbill and guillemotshowno significant change,buttheshagshowsa12s3a decreasein eggshell index.The eggshellchangein rook,carrioncrowand shaghas notbeen datedaccurately, 0 0 (p 0 0 LC) 8 . * * 0 0~~~~~~ - * * o C0o *.o e *- * * o % ~~0 0~~~~~~~~~ * 0 0 9) 0 O N C) * oO ??0 o o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ** * * 3. ;. * et; * 6 . ? ? 0 0 . . 0 0 10 N () ~~~ rO N N 0 0 N N - N 0 00 0 N 0 a 0 * 00 0 00 * 9) wo o 0 a ?ooo8 o. o * 0 _ * 0 O - O O 0 0 00 ~~~~~~~~~00 ~~~~~ 0) 0) O -6) + N- a - M0 0 a p * O 0 10 a -~~~~~ (b) Ia 0!eM -- 0 _ a o 0~~~~~~~~~~~0 0 93 0 aa a?O O Cl) 0 00 0 o 0* a OO 0 0 _ 0 0 _~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~t~~~~~t (0 Ol 9 o8 ooc 0 0 * *00 ? a ** o dO * a * 4 0 9 * *s o o 0 * * o 0 = 0* 0 * l_ 0 0 i - O - -~ 0 0 81 D. A. RATCLIFFE as thesamplesavailabledo not covereach consecutiveyear,butin all three,changeafter 1947is indicated. (Ratcliffe1967a) thateggshellsof merlin,hobby This revisionof a previousstatement and carrioncrow had shownno changein weightresultsfromexaminationof much largersamplesforthesespecies. periodsandregions ofgoldeneagle eggshellindicesbetweendiferent Table 4. Comparisons Regionand period (1) WestScotland 1848-1946 Mean index + S.E. 3-146 + 0035 3.146 (2) WestScotland +0 035 1848-1946 (3) Centraland east 3-137 Scotland ?0053 1949-67 (4) Centralandeast 3-164 ? 0-032 Scotland 1855-1946 No. of Regionand period eggs 84 Centraland east Scotland 1855-1946 84 WestScotland 1951-65 22 WestScotland 1951-65 45 Centraland east Scotland 1949-67 Significance No. of % eggs differ- ofdifference means ence between (t-test) Not +0 6 3K164 45 significant + ?0032 Mean index + S.E. 2-834 +0054 2-834 + 0 054 27 -9 9 < 0 001 27 -9 7 < 0001 3-137 22 -0.9 + 0053 Not significant THE CAUSES OF THE EGGSHELL EFFECT Chemicalanalysisof 30-50 yearold specimensshowedthatoldereggshellspreservedin collectionsconsist,on average,of about 900o calciumcarbonate,theremainingfraction beingshellprotein(Tyler& Geake 1953),adherentshellmembranesand residualfilmof contentsleftafterrinsingwhentheeggswereblown.Comparisonof pre-1947withpostthatthedecreasein shellthickness eggsanalysedin thiswayconfirmed 1947sparrowhawk thecalciumcarbonatefraction.Change or densityhas involvedmainly,ifnotcompletely, raptorsis thusimplied. in calciumcarbonatemetabolismof theaffected Eggshellthicknessin birds is known to be affectedby severalfactorsunder both conditions,and thineggshellsseemto be a reactivesymptomcomnaturaland artificial of calcium, diet,especiallydeficiency mon to variouskindsof avian adversity. Imperfect eggs but also of manganeseand vitaminD, causes domesticfowl to lay thin-shelled (Sturkie1965). Shortageof food in a wildbirdspeciescould lead to productionof thinshelledeggs,butthereis no evidencefora declinein availablefoodsupplyfortheaffected raptorsat thetimeand overthetotalarea concerned. Sturkie(1965) mentionsthat age and geneticconstitutionaffecteggshellthickness; be thatin thesewild species,the eggshellchange reflectsa general could it therefore ageing,or geneticshiftin thepopulation?Clutchestakenannuallyfromthesamefemale peregrinein Devonshirefrom1924to 1929 showedthefollowingmean eggshellindices: 1924-179, 1925-185, 1926-178, 1927-199, 1928-193, 1929-199. This suggeststhat diminishing eggshellindex does not normallyoccur withinthe averagelife span of a breedingperegrine,whichcan be put at less than the 6 years above (Ratcliffe1962). Increasingaverageage of thepopulationis thusnotlikelyto be thecause of theeggshell A substantialdecreasein shellindexwas, moreover,knownto occurin eggsof the effect. same individualoccupantsof threedifferent peregrineeyriesduringthe criticalperiod, of the therebyrulingout thepossibilityof it beingdue to changinggeneticconstitution population(Table 6). 82 Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~o ~~ v v v v 2 v I I .????? $oo o$ o$oo ooo o I oo. I v o I v I 00 00 I I I o, o o o- ~~ 0 0 z 0 z 0 z I I k ;l o o o1 +l +l +l +l on +l +l +l +l +l o +l 0 z 0 . ; 0 z I + o Co I on +l +l * , o +l I +l + 9 +l ~~~r e oo ,_2 N ~~~+l 00 * +l o ^ X o I' > < * tt 0 ~~0 A 00 en oo 9sD +l +l _, cl C Cl - tD > +l I o e t t ' o 'I o +l -| 9a~9e~9e2O~9O 0 5 't q0000nSn > *O o 0 N N C -N Cl t t 00 e en e ON Cl - 1 W- +l nz 0Q +l 'I ot m +l 00 W- e w 0 T o CN 0 t- 00 t Cl ON 'IC ON I tn 0a 00 Cl Q > +l O-_ -e0 o ot +l > +l 1f~ d t0 vC t- 00O Cl 00 +l 1 W ON Nt ON 00 ~ en en~ +I N0 w C, t +I ~00C ~ 00 Cl <,W * <Y Cd 'I ; -4 00 - o t- t t C's 0-. cd f ~~~. 00 en C's~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > ,= o 0 ON 0 rT- (7-< 00 O 0 ~t O i- 0 t d 0 O 0 t O 0 00 00 C t t - O e_I Cl~ Cl ? 00 00 - It ? N t en ?? ^C O OCOI0 - O 0 V^ ? 00 ? g ~~~~~~~ .~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~C It Z tr; cl, C t- e C i Q t 00 C "o Q 00 - t- ~ t- +l Cl C 00 o 'O 00 Cl "t 0 '~~~~~~~~t 00 0 Cl 'C Nt 9 1t q) to +l oI o,- 00 0N 00 cC1tq Ot N o m999~9 999a g eN 00 -0d N 00 W tCC N C m 'I +l o 0 = +l Cd o - S c; C's +l .: r oN + o vg 0 z O I? 9 o^oN 9 *1-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~O o9 ~~~~r 0 ON ou o ol ~ z o C*N ~ 0 v v 0 0 z = ~~~~~ 9 t e - o Ce ; 2t 0 O< - S ?~ C'sI= 0tQ 10 ~~~~~-~~S ~t} - 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~l rj, ~~~~~~~~0 ~ - 0 C Cl 00 O m CI 0S I g- ~ Qn N Cl Xj ~ 0I e X ~ CINir 00 mi '. ~ ~ >i 01. 0 3 - d - D. A. RATCLIFFE 83 Thereis some evidencethatstresscan cause decreasein eggshellthickness,but stress is itselfa responseto other,externalfactors,themostrelevantofwhichhavealreadybeen discountedas an adequateexplanationoftherecentprevalenceofeggbreakagein raptors (p. 74). My colleague,I. Prestt,is currently thequestionofdiseasein wildraptors; investigating thisstudyhas involvedconsultationwithspecialistsin avian diseasesand post-mortem examinationof severalhundredraptors.Disease is wellknownas a cause of thin-shelled eggs,and theappearancein Britainoftwo suchdiseases,infectious bronchitis and Newcastlediseasein 1947does,in fact,givea fairlyexacttimecorrelation withtheonsetofthe eggshellchangein wild birdshere.Infectiousbronchitishas not been reportedin wild birds,butNewcastlediseasewas knownto occurin a numberofwildBritishspecies.While theeggshellsofinfected wildbirdsmayhaveshowna decreasein thickness, thewidespread and persistent eggshellchangereportedforseveralBritishraptorscan hardlybe attributed to Newcastledisease,as thishas not been isolatedin anybirdof prey.Moreover,some poultryinfectedby thisdiseasewerefoundto recoverfullhealth(and to lay normaleggs Table 6. Changein eggshellindexin threefemaleperegrines Year EyrieA, Lancashire EyrieB, Lancashire EyrieC, Yorkshire Clutchsize Mean index Clutchsize Mean index Clutchsize Mean index 1943 1944 3 4 2-03 1-97 3 3 1.90 1-86 - 1946 1947 3 1-36 2 - 1-49 3 3 1945 1948 1949 3 3 4 1-92 1-35 1-29 3 1-79 - - - 2-18 1-78 - again),whereastheeggshelleffect has continuedin someraptorsat an undiminished level from1947 up to the presentday. Finally,thereis no reason whygolden eagles and peregrinesin the easternHighlandsshould have been exemptfromsuch an epidemic disease while those in the westernHighlandswere infected-a necessarypostulateto accountforthe differences in eggshelleffectby the disease hypothesis.Thereis no evidence thatany otherdisease could have affectedBritishraptorson a widespreadscale from1947 onwards. All thefactorsmentionedabove completely failto providean adequateexplanationof theeggshellchange,bearingin mindits extremely widespreadyetunprecedented nature, the patternof geographicalvariation,the synchrony and otherremarkableparallelism in severaldifferent specieswithwidelyvaryingecology,and thewayin whichit has been maintainedwithapparentlyunabatedstrength sinceitsfirstappearance.Onlysome profound,widelypervasive,simultaneousand unprecedented environmental changeseems adequate to account for this effect.Attentionnaturallyfocuses on the large-scale environmental pollutioncaused byman,showingrapidaccelerationduringthepost-1945 period.First,thereis therapidincreasein fall-outofradioactivematterfromatomicand thermo-nuclear explosions,beginningin 1945. Fall-out did not become a matterof concernuntilthermo-nuclear deviceswereexplodedin 1954,and itsgeographicalpattern does notmatchthatofeggshellchange.In Britain,fall-outis highestin theheavyrainfall areas of the northand westof Britain.This factorseemstherefore unlikelyto be the cause of decreasingeggshellindex. 84 Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds The othermain increasein environmental pollutionhas been the accumulationof persistent residuesof synthetic organicchemicalsmanufactured in largequantitiesand used widely.Tyler(1950) has shownthatcertainorganicdrugs,suchas sulphanilamide, caused a markeddecreasein eggshellthicknesswhenadministered to domesticfowl,and it is conceivablethata varietyof accidentalchemicalpollutantsmighthave thiseffect. Althoughpollutionby inorganicsubstances,such as atmosphericsulphurdioxide,is increasing(Mellanby1967)thisis nota newphenomenonand is notlikelyto be involved. Environmental contamination by lead frommotorfuelsis now causingconcernin some countries, thoughthisis mainlya problemofurbanareas,and is unlikelyto haveshowna sudden,spectacularincreasearound 1947. However,a notablefeatureof the post-war world,includingBritain,has been the greatincreasein productionof complexorganic chemicalsforindustry, agriculture and domesticuse. and thecontribution oftheseto riverpolluThe post-warincreasein use of detergents tionis well known,but thesesubstancesgiveno groundsforsuspicionas the agentsof eggshellchangein raptors.On theotherhand,attentionhas onlyrecently been drawnto the potentiallyharmfuleffectsof the persistent poly-chlorinated biphenyls,whichhave beenfoundin tissuesoffish,eaglesand humansin Sweden,and werefirstdetectedin an eagle(Jensen1966).Thesesynthetic compounds,whicharewidelyusedin themanufacture ofplastics,lubricantsand insulatingmaterialand are releasedunalteredintotheenvironmentin a numberof ways,have recentlybeen shownto accumulatewidelyin thetissues ofwildbirds,includingraptors,in Britain.It is suggestedthatPCBs aretoxicresiduesand constitutea potential that,beingpersistent organochlorine compounds,theytherefore hazardto wildlife(Holmes,Simmons& Tatton1967).WhilePCBs wereused industrially before1939, theyhave showna substantial,thoughprobablygradual,increasein use duringthepost-warperiod.Reynolds(1969),in discussingtheuses ofPCBs, suggeststhat theymay have been used in pesticideformulationsto extendthe active life of these caused by thepresenceof chemicals.This authoralso discussestheanalyticaldifficulties thatthepeaksobtainedbygas-liquidchromatography, PCBs and considersthepossibility and identified as PCBs, could be condensationproductsof the metabolitesof organochlorineinsecticides. of persistent residuesof agriThe widespreadoccurrencein the Britishenvironment culturaland otherinsecticidesand fungicidesis well known(Moore 1965a). Particular noticehas beentakenin Britainof theorganochlorine compounds,DDT, yBHC,dieldrin, aldrinand heptachlor.In Swedentherehas been moreconcernabout contamination by residuesof organomercury persistent compounds,whichincreasedrapidlyin the 1940s, a trendreflected by levelsin raptortissues(Berget al. 1966). Similarincreasesin use of and organosulphur non-persistent organophosphorus compoundsalso occurredat this that certainof thewidelyused dithiotime,and amongthelattergroupthereis evidence carbamatescan affecteggshellthicknessin poultry(Johnson,Waibel & Pomeroy1955; Picco 1962). The relevanceof non-persistent pesticidesto raptorsis unknownand attentioninevittoxic residuesknownto accumulatein thetissuesof raptors, ablyfocuseson persistent them in some of relatively largeand potentiallyharmfulamounts,e.g. pp' DDT (commercialDDT also containsop' DDT), and itsmetabolitespp'DDE, TDE; yBHC andother isomersofBHC; HEOD (dieldrin);heptachlorepoxide; organomercury compoundsand between1963 and PCBs. In Britain,tissuesand eggs of peregrinesand sparrowhawks in detectableresidues,of DDE, whereasin 1968have showna consistent preponderance, the golden eagle, during1963-65, DDE and dieldrinwere usuallypresentin similar D. A. RATCLIFFE 85 amounts.No eggor tissueofanyofthesethreeraptorswhichhas beenanalysedso farhas been withoutone or otherof theseresidues,and themajorityhave containedboth. Of 799 liversor eggsof all Britishraptorsexaminedduring1963-67,9900 containedresidues of DDE (Prestt1967). Though organochlorineresiduelevels are oftenless in other species,Table 7 shows thatcontaminationby thesesubstancesaffectsa wide range of of Britishbirdpopulationsby organoon contamination Britishbirdtypes.Information eggsexaminedin 1966showed0 3 ppmand mercury residuesis scanty,buttwoperegrine pictureofcontamination, nilresidues.Data on PCBs are too fewto givea comprehensive eggsexamined(13% nil),2-15 butlevelsduring1967-69average1 80 ppmin 30 peregrine sparrowhawkeggs (3500 nil). For the golden eagle, nineteeneggs ppm in forty-eight frominlandeyriesall showednilPCBs, butan eagletfounddead belowa westcoast eyrie contained1700 ppm in its liver. The organochlorine pesticideresiduesand PCBs have preciselythatmaintainedperchangeresponsiblefordecreasein eggshell vasivenesspostulatedfortheenvironmental weightin certainBritishraptors.DDT and yBHC weredevelopedas insecticidesduring to maintainhygieneamongstmilitarypersonnel, the 1939-45war and used extensively especiallythoseon activeservice.Whenthewarended,thewideruses ofDDT and yBHC soon resultedin extensiveuse,forcontrol wereexploredand exploited;theireffectiveness and agriof insectpests of households,gardens,pets,farmlivestockand horticultural culturalcrops.In 1945 and 1946,followingreleaseof DDT on thecommercialmarket, numeroussuccessfulfieldtrialswere reportedin its applicationagainstinsectpests of cropsand animals,and it is clearthatin 1946therewas alreadyconsiderablelocal use of DDT as a sprayin orchards(Shaw 1946a, b; Massee 1945, 1946; G. H. L. Dicker, In Shaw (1946a), J.G. Mitchell,reviewingsheepdip trialsof personalcommunication). DDT against blowflyand tick,reportedthat 'the success achieved has stimulateda vigorousdemandamongfarmersforpreparationsforfielduse'. The Cook Report(1964; p. 57) says 'DDT was firstavailable in theU.K. forexperibut on fruitthereafter mentaluse againstcroppestsin 1944-45.It was used commercially treatment an economic made until price reductions its use on fieldcrops was limited propositionabout threeyearslater'.The same sourceindicatesthatyBHC had a similar earlyhistoryto DDT; 'BHC was developedas an insecticidein Englandin 1942. Field trialswerein progressin 1945-46.Because of thelow cost of thismateriallittletimewas lost in applyingtheresultson a commercialscale; crudeBHC wirewormand fleabeetle dusts were freelyavailable by 1947'. The scale of use of DDT and yBHC continuedto and a growing increaseas theyfoundapplicationto a wideningrangeofcropprotection, use as sheepdips. After1955,themoretoxiccyclodienecompoundsdieldrin,aldrinand as seed use, particularly heptachlorwereintroducedand foundwidespreadagricultural these last to In of wild birds attributable deaths 1962, following catastrophic dressings. began to reducethe amountsbeingreleasedinto the substances,voluntaryrestrictions theseand furtherrethe Cook Report (1964) in formally recommending environment; in reducingtheuse ofcyclodienes(Moore 1965b). strictions, probablyhad stillmoreeffect Dieldrinwas widelyused as a sheepdip, sometimeafter1955,untilthisuse was banned in 1966. voluntarily In reconstructing of raptors,it is imporcontamination thepictureof organochlorine firstreacheda tantto knowwhentheamountof chemicalreleasedintotheenvironment quantityto level highenoughto enterthesebirdsin the areas concernedin sufficient is of causal relationship cause physiologicaldisturbance. A correlative patternsuggestive not simplya matterof timingof residueintroduction, but mustincludeamount,distri- 86 Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds butionand circulation.Figuresforthemanufacture and use of thefirstorganochlorine insecticides have notbeenfoundforGreatBritain,butin theUnitedStates,productionof DDT was 15 000 tonsin 1945,risingto 32 000 tonsin 1950(Quaife,Winbush& Fitzhugh extensiveapplicationsof DDT againstinsectpests, 1967). Foreseeingthe forthcoming Wigglesworth (1945) discussedthe implicationsand possible dangersof this for 'the balance of nature'withintheinsectworld.Only3 yearslater,theaccuracyoftheprediction about use is confirmed by the statementof Vogt (1948, p. 30) that'. . . biologists throughoutthe world are alarmed by the widespreadand unselectiveuse of DDT'. It is evidentthattheaggregateuse of DDT and yBHC in Britainwas considerablein 1946and thattheamountused increasedin each successiveyearup to at least 1950.The adventand increaseof theseinsecticidesin theenvironment thuscoincidedcloselywith the onset of eggshellchange and its evidentlyrapid spread throughcertainraptor populations.It is notat firstobvioushow thisenvironmental changecould haveimpinged upon wildraptors,forthelinkbetweenthetwoseemstenuousuntilDDT cameintomore use in 1948.Whentheearlyuses of DDT and yBHC are examinedin generalagricultural detail,however,some probablelinksat once emerge. An earlyapplicationof theseinsecticides whichfoundenthusiastic use was thedusting of domesticanimalsand birdsagainstexternalparasites.The Veterinary Record for26 October 1946 containsthe followingeditorialcomment,underthe heading'DDT and gammexanein small animal practice':'A greatdeal of publicityhas resultedfromthe DDT-and it is not surprising developmentof thesepowerfulinsecticides-particularly thattheend ofthewarhas seenthemarketing ofverynumerousinsecticidalpreparations. Many of theseare producedby reliablefirmsand the amountof the activeprincipleis are now availableofvaryingcontentand clearlydefined:on theotherhand,preparations issued by "mushroom"firms.... We find,in fact,almosteverychemist,cornstrength chandler,or generalstorestockedup withDDT preparations,easilypurchasableand used upon animals,numbersof whichare unfortunately indiscriminately findingtheir In the same issue,Kirk (1946) said 'It is to be regretted way to veterinary infirmaries.' thatthegeneralreleaseof DDT has been extendedto thelaity,as we findalmostevery little"general"shop or pet shop is sellingthesubstanceindiscriminately, thepurchasing cumulativeand cats are especipublicbelievingthatit is harmless.The drugis extremely ally susceptibleto its cumulativeaction.' This earlyveterinary use ofDDT evidently appliedto homingpigeons,althoughitwas discontinued later;Whitney(1961) listsDDT dustsand spraysas one ofthemosteffective meansofcontrolling ectoparasitesofhomingpigeons.Preparationsofan anti-feather-rot creamcontainingyBHC are still(1969) availableto fanciers.From 1946 onwards,there could thushave been a remarkablydirectlink betweenthesenew insecticidesand the whichtakes(and took at thattime)the domesticpigeonas its principalprey peregrine, in all districts southof theHighlands(Ratcliffe1963a). The writerfoundhoming species in Lakeland and Gallowayperegrine pigeonrings every eyriecontainingyoungwhichhe examinedduring1945-48.This use of DDT could have been appliedto militarycarrier pigeonsevenbefore1946,but it is not likelyto have becomewidespreaduntilafterthis insecticidewas firstreleasedto thepublic,at theend of 1945.Agricultural and horticulturaluses of DDT probablysooneror laterbecame a chiefsourceof DDE residuesin theperegrine. In the peregrine,thefirstsignsof decreasein eggshellweightmayhave been in 1946 (Fig. 1 and Table 6) but onlyone clutch(c/2),in Lakeland,was involved.In 1947,six out of elevenclutches(eightLakeland,two Brecon,one Sussex) werewellbelowpreviously D. A. RATCLIFFE 87 normalweight.All fourclutches(two Dorset,two Lakeland) examinedfor1948wereof sub-normalweight;in 1949,offourclutches,three(twoLakeland,one Sussex)werelight, but theother(Cairngorms)was of normalweight(Fig. 1). The availablesamplesforthis to givean accurateidea of the criticalperiodare thustoo smalland unevenlydistributed incidenceand geographicalspreadof eggshellweightdecreasein thewholeBritishpereis necessary, as Fig. 1 could be misleadingin itsimpligrinepopulation;thisqualification cation of rapid eggshellchangethroughthewholepopulation. The sparrowhawkdoes not normallytake homingpigeons,but preysmainlyon small passerines,manyof whichfrequenthabitats,suchas gardensand orchards,whereDDT foundwidespreadearlyuse. In thisspecies,one clutchout of eightin 1946was evidently an area with lighterthan normal(Fig. 3); it came fromthe outskirtsof Bournemouth, Of sixclutchesin 1947,fourfromtheIpswicharea were numerousgardensand nurseries. werenormal.In 1948,ofnine all light,buttheothers,fromDorsetand Nottinghamshire, clutches,threewerelight(Surrey,Hampshire,Suffolk),two borderline(Surrey,HampSutherland).In 1949,ofeightclutches,five shire)and fournormal(Dorset(two),Suffolk, werelight(Dorset, Surrey,Hampshire,Suffolk(two)), and threewerenormal(Dorset (two), Hampshire).Only by 1950 were all clutches(three)lighterthan normal.While in theabove southerncountiesin contaminationof some sparrowhawks organochlorine of 1946and 1947,fromsuburbanand horticultural uses,is veryprobable,contamination the whole southernEnglandpopulationis likelyto have been variableand incomplete use of DDT and yBHC becamereallywidespreadand intensive. untiltheagricultural Althoughmore sparrowhawkeggs were available for the criticalperiod,compared withthe peregrine,the datingof the eggshellchangein both speciesdependson small samplesdrawnfromveryfewpartsofBritain.Untilmorematerialis foundand examined, it is impossibleto tell how far thisevidencehas nationalor merelylocal significance. whenthe data for both speciesare takentogether,theysuggesta wideNevertheless, spreadand moreor less synchronous phenomenon,at leastin England,coincidingin its of these insecticides intotheenvironment onsetwiththeintroduction of organochlorine birds. but in the Kestreleggshellsof sub-normalweightfirstappearedin 1946(in Wiltshire), merlinno signofdecreasewas detecteduntil1951,and in thehobbynoneuntil1952.This situationcorrelateswiththeenvironmental forsomekestrelsin southernEngland pattern, frequenturbanand suburbanareas,whereasthishabitatis unusualformerlinand hobby areas. It is thus which,moreover,each spend at least halfthe yearin non-agricultural likelythatpopulationsof thelast two specieswereless exposedto earlyorganochlorine contamination thanthoseof peregrine, sparrowhawkand kestrel. The widespreaduse ofDDT and yBHC in sheepdipsprobablygave an earlysourceof forbirdswhichhabituallyfeedon sheepcarrion,notablythegoldeneagle contamination (in westernScotland),buzzard and raven.The last two specieshave shownno eggshell change,and whilethegoldeneagle has undergonea markeddecrease,thelack of specimens for the period 1946-55 makes dating of the eggshellchange uncertainin this species.Most of the recentgolden eagle eggshellsexaminedhave been post-1955,and those analysedfrom1963-66 containedapproximatelysimilaramountsof DDE and dieldrin(Lockie, Ratcliffe and Balharry1969). Dating of eggshellchangein shag,rook and carrioncrowis also uncertain. However,for all speciesshowinga decreasein eggshellweight,it is certainthatthe change occurredafterand not beforethe widespreadintroductionof organochlorine insecticidesinto the environment. It is possiblethattherewas interspecific variationin 88 Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds o 0-4 Q 70 r ,_ oo 0 o O 0 00 ON dB O?? e O 00 C14 en 00 CN1 ON V e* ? ? z~~~~ 4) Zo 8o oo zoY : 880 t ;O o b Ev o m o OOoN N t b o 66 o ~~~~~~~~~? o oY? 6C O QN 009No -.2 U 8- oo ? o o~ 0 .? ?- t~ ? It C 0~o C o , 0 o C C 00 e 0 ; 0 OWOL NNNI ^ --'I 00 6 oo ote ON ? Cb". o 00 p 0Oo O l'tN0C- ~, o ot-: 080~ oo 8o +) o 80W 0 *0f. 8e <f8 c , |00 ONc 00 00 ) b D. A. RATCLIFFE 89 c .r O~~~~~~~e ON to, - ~ 0 Z; 8 0 8 ~~~~~~~~ 55O0.Nm^Ob^ o ood od d od o) o oooooooo? O o O O o 0 Cd-st3} 0 Z El 4 E :W 0 ,.d3o C' _ o o O o o o PC < m ~~~~~~o~~~~ ~ _ ,_~~~~~~~~~4 C' N t, > | o S ^ $? ? - | - l $ S N S t | o m s~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~C 8" ?" | cn C 8 , 9 ;S S r4= en 1 |8 O = .W~~~~~~~4= o O ? ? o Ot *,s, =Q EQo os en kn v o ZJ ,,0 E 9 .0 5 ce; ^ 2 9 a8~~~~~~~~~~d 9 C CS 90 Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds in exposureand in sensitivity to the onsetofeggshellchangeaccordingto bothdifferences earlierand laterinsecticides. If therewereno morethana timecorrelationbetweenorganochlorine insecticideuse There and eggshellchange,it would hardlybe justifiableto claim a causal relationship. are, however,otherrelevantlinesof evidence. First,thereis theevidenceof geographicalparallelism.The greaterdecreasein weight of sparrowhawk eggshellsfromsouth-eastEngland,comparedwiththosefromCumberland, Hampshireand Dorset,matchesthemoreintensiveuse of agriculturaland hortiin differences in contaminationof the culturalpesticidesin thefirstregion,as reflected species(Table 7). In thecentraland easternScottishHighlands,eggshellchangeis slight thatorganowiththefinding (or nil) in peregrines and nilin goldeneagles,corresponding chlorinepesticidecontaminationof the peregrinethereis onlyabout a quarterof that foundin otherregionsof Britain(Table 7); whileforthegoldeneagle,thelevelis onlya tenthof thatfoundin thewesternHighlands(Table 7). The case of the golden eagle is especiallyilluminating.In westernScotland this residuesofsheepdips, specieshabituallyfeedson sheepcarrionand so takesup persistent thougheagles livingnear or on thewestcoast are also likelyto accumulateresiduesby theirhabitoffeedingon sea birdsas well(Wormell1965).In centraland easternScotland, wherethe supplyof wildpreyis good, eagles eat littleor no sheepcarrion,and in some areas sheepare fewor absentanyway(Brown& Watson 1964).Whilecoastal eaglescan takeup notonlyorganochlorine pesticideresiduesfromsea birds(Moore & Tatton1965), but also PCBs (Presttet al. 1970), those in inland districtsof the Highlandslive the whichwould be virtuallypesticidefree,but forthe local yearroundin an environment use ofsheepdips.The inlanddistricts ofthewesternHighlands,whereeggshellchangehas occurred,forma vast wildernesscountry,remotefromurban and industrialcentres. to imagine Having discounteddecreasein food supply(Lockie et al. 1969),it is difficult whatotherrecentenvironmental changecould conceivablyhave occurredhere,exceptthe of organochlorine sheepdips. verydirectone of introduction Thereis growingexperimental biochemicalevidencethatDDT, DDE and dieldrincan cause decreasein eggshellweight.Calciummetabolism, and therefore eggshellformation, in birdsis controlledby oestrogenand boththyroidand parathyroidhormones(Sturkie 1965). There is a considerablebody of evidence(Kupfer 1967) that in vertebrates insecticidesin generalstimulatethe productionof liverenzymeswhich organochlorine degradethesteroidhormones,and thusdisturbmetabolismof oestrogen.Peakall (1967) has shownthiseffectin domesticpigeons,withboth DDT and dieldrin,and concludes thattheeffects of thetwo chemicalsare additive.A possiblebiochemicalpathwayfrom eggsis thus demoncontamination by DDT and dieldrinto productionof thin-shelled strated. Jefferies (1967, 1969) has showna delay in ovulation,decreasedegg weightand an increaseinrelativeshellweightinBengalesefinches(Lonchurastriata)fedpp' DDT. These resultsdemonstrate a disturbanceof eggformationand suggestthatthefinalexpression of physiologicalchangeinducedby DDT mayvaryaccordingto species.Jefferies interbalance,producingapparent pretshisfindings as an effect ofDDT on theTSH-thyroxine in the bird. Jefferies & French(1969) have shown that feedingsubhyperthyroidism lethalamountsofpp' DDT to domesticpigeonscaused an increasein thyroidweightand a reductionin colloid contentof thefollicles.These conditionsmay reflecta hyper-or hypo-functioning gland, and could connect with the eggshellchange in wild birds. of are knownin thisrespect,as theadministration Interspecific physiologicaldifferences 91 D. A. RATCLIFFE on theoestrogen-induced has beenfoundto have oppositeeffects risein plasma thyroxine calciumin layingducksand hens(Hohn 1961). Fig. 5 suggeststhat in the peregrinethereis a correlationbetweenincreasingtotal organochlorine pesticideresiduecontentof eggsand decreasingeggshellindex,up to the residuelevel of about 10 ppm, above whichthereappears to be no markedeggshell as it connectswiththe observation change.The formof thisrelationshipis important, withtimeshowthatthedecreasein eggshellweightin thisspecies(and thesparrowhawk) i.e. no furtherdecrease afterthe firstfew years (Figs. 1 and 3) ed a 'plateau-effect', despite a continuingrise in organochlorinepesticideuse after1950. This lack of a simplelinearrelationship,shownalso by Fig. 5, suggeststhatabove a certainlevel of some otherphysiologicalmechanismmay beginto operate.It residuecontamination, is also possiblethateggswithshellsbelow a certainlevel of thickness,are brokenand 2 00 _ 1.90 _ E E E I180. ^1 70 160 * 0 1-150 _ S 1-40 - 0 *~~ * * 0 S 1 30 1 20 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Total organochlorine pesticide residues (ppm ) betweenorganochlorine pesticideresiduecontentand shellindexfor 5. Relationship fromtheCentralandEastScottish Highlands; 1963-69.*, Eggshells eggsoftheperegrine, fromotherregionsofBritain. *, eggshells FIG. eatenso quicklythattheyareneverfound.The thinnest and sparrowpost-1946peregrine hawkeggshellsexaminedwouldcertainly appearto be highlyproneto accidentaldamage. It is also possiblethatparentbirdscontainingmorethan a certainresiduelevel do not lay eggs.McNally(1965) foundthatdomestichen eggswithshellsweighingless than3-5 g werelostin thepoultryhouse. resulted It is, however,probablethattheincreasinguse of organochlorine insecticides in an increasingproportionof raptorpopulationsbeingaffectedand showingthe eggshellchange. If thedata in Fig. 5 are analysedin two geographicalgroups,theperegrineeggshells fromthe centraland easternHighlandshave a highermean index (1.75 against 1.46) and lowermean residuecontent(2.78 ppm against 13-56ppm) than thosefromother 43 at P <0001 (t = 6-22and 5-22respectively, beingsignificant regions,bothdifferences df). Fig. 5 also impliesratherwide variabilityin individualresponseat any level of contamination. 92 Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds Fig. 6 shows that thereis some correlationbetweentotal organochlorinepesticide contentof different speciesand percentagedecreasein eggshellindex.This graphcould also reflectdifferential environmental exposureto contaminationor interspecific differences in retentivecapacityfor residues,as well as a certaininterspecific variabilityof responseto these substances.The last possibilitycasts doubt upon any quantitative inferenceswhich mightbe drawn fromexperimentalspecies about the physiological effects ofresiduelevelsin wildspecies.Moreover,thevariableenzyme-inducing powerof different chemicalssuggeststhatthe simplearithmetic sum of residueshas onlylimited meaningas an indexof contamination. 21 20 19 - * Peregrine(excludingEast and Central Highlands) 18 17 * Sparrowhawk 16 15 - V 14 - -13 * Shag ,C 12- c 10 g 9 * Merlin * Golden eagle (West Highlands) 8_ 7 6_ 5 * Rook * Carrion crow * Kestrel 4 3 2* Kittiwake I _ -I -2 -3 0 Buzzard Raven a *Raven ~~~~~~~Guillemotl * Razorbill Black-headed GulI 0-5 10 1i5 2 0 25 30 log ( Mean total organochlorine residues xlO 6. Relationship betweenmeanorganochlorine pesticideresiduecontentof eggsand meanpercentage changein eggshell indexforfourteen speciesofBritishbirds.A statistical examination of thedata has notbeenmadeas thetwoparameters do notalwaysreferto thesamesamples. FIG. The possibleindividualcontribution of different organochlorine pesticideresiduesto raptoreggshellchangecannotyetbe gauged.Initialeffects wereevidentlya responseto DDT and perhapsyBHC but it seemslikelythataldrin,dieldrinand heptachlorcontributedlater,fortheavailable evidenceindicatesa generalsimilarity in thephysiological activityof thesechemicals.In the goldeneagle,the timingof the reductionin breeding successsuggeststhatin generaldieldrinhad more seriouseffects than DDT (Lockie & Ratcliffe1964),but as adequateeggshelldata are lackingforthepre-dieldrin period,one cannotbe surethatthiswould be truefortheeggshellchangespecifically. The case forbelievingthatorganochlorine insecticidesare themajorcause of theeggshell changeis stronglysupportedby evidencefromNorthAmerica,whereHickey & Anderson(1968) havefoundthata paralleland unprecedented decreasein eggshellweight in the peregrine(18.8% in California),ospreyand bald eagle (Haliaetus leucocephalus) D. A. RATCLIFFE 93 in 1947 also. of DDT in thatcontinent, coincidedin onsetwiththegeneralintroduction correlationbetweenincreasingmean DDE Moreover,theseauthorsshoweda significant gulls(Larus argentatus) contentofeggsand decreasingmeaneggshellthickness in herring betweenthe Britishand North American fromfivedifferent colonies. The similarity change situationsis remarkableand demandsan explanationin termsof environmental scale. Finally,Porter& Wiemeyer(1969) have shownexperion an extra-continental mentallythat in a captivebreedingpopulationof the Americansparrowhawk(Falco sparverius), dosage witha combinationof DDT and dieldrincaused increasedegg disapby parentbirdsand reducedeggshellthickness.The pearance,increasedegg destruction advancedabove and developedfromcorrelative evidenceis thusconvincingly hypothesis supportedby controlledexperiment. Thereis evidencethatPCBs could be causallyinvolvedin productionof raptoreggshellsof sub-normalweight.Riseboroughet al. (1968) have shownthatin pigeons,PCBs have fourtimesthe enzyme-inducing activityof technicalDDT and six timesthat of DDE. Littleinformation is available about thetimingand scale of the appearanceand oftheenvironment. Thischemicalcomplexhas manyuses increaseofPCB contamination in industry, and it has evidentlyshowna greatpost-warincreaseas an environmental pollutant.Compared withDDT and yBHC, however,the increasein use of PCBs is later,and it is likelyto have showna steady likelyto have beenmoregradualand slightly increaseup to the presentday. Even in 1967-68,contaminationof Britishraptorsby pesticideresidues(no analyticaldata forPCBs PCBs-isfarlowerthanby organochlorine are available for earlieryears).Neitherthe biological pathwaysnor the geographical contaminationby PCBs are yet known accurately.While patternof environmental theiruse is likelyto be heaviestin urbanand industrialpartsof Britain,PCB residues & (Prestt,Jefferies appear to be heaviestin birdswhichfeedin an aquatic environment Moore 1970). To sum up, it would seem obtuseto denythatthereis a strongprimafacie case for pesticidalresiduesto be causally suspecting, firstand foremost,knownorganochlorine This hypothesisrestsnot on a theeggshelleffect. involvedin initiating and maintaining makean extremely lines,whichtogether singlelineofevidencebut on severalconvergent and compellingcase. Thereare some groundsforsuspectingPCBs to be a contributory additivecausal agent.It is possible that the total cause of the eggshellchange was a combinationof severalchemicalpollutantswhichincreasedas a wholeduring1947-68, of one causal in timeand location.The identification thoughwithvaryingcontribution The factthatPCBs does notexcludeotherpossibilities. agentin sucha situationcertainly pollutantsuntil1966mustnaturally escapedsuspicionas possiblyharmfulenvironmental cause the non-chemist to wonderif therecould be otherpotentiallyhazardous waste productsof the chemicalindustryto whichattentionhas not yetbeen-drawn.This is a thattheknown lineofthoughtwhichwouldgainvalidityifitcouldbe shownconvincingly of the environmental eggshellchange. pollutantsare not thecause THE CONNECTION BETWEEN ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION, DECREASE IN EGGSHELL WEIGHT, EGG BREAKING, BREEDING FAILURE AND POPULATION CHANGE This sectionexaminesthe degreeof correlationbetweenthesefour phenomena,and considersto whatextenttheyare causallyconnected,whethertheycould all be successive could connectstagesin a differstagesin a singlecausal chain,or whether'short-circuits' 94 Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds are expresseddiagramaticpossibilitiesof relationship entorder.The varioustheoretical allyin Fig. 7. The firstimplicationis thatthesechemicalpollutantsaffecteggshellweightby altering the internalregulationof calciumcarbonatemetabolism,so thatCaCO3 supplyto the period becomesreducedalthoughthe bird's intakeof oviductduringthe egg-forming calcium remainsunchanged.There is anotherpossibility:that thesechemicalsimpair so thatfoodintakeis reduced,or thecatchingofpreymakes thebird'shuntingefficiency, moredemandsupon thebird,althoughthereis no decreasein the abundanceof prey. Organochlorinepesticideshave a neuropathologicaleffectand so mightcause subtle especially,takingof preydependson interference withmotorresponses.In theperegrine loss of harmonyin an acutelysensitivecontrolof visionand flight,and the slightest impairthebird'sabilityto 'lock mightsignificantly nervousand muscularco-ordination on' to its rapidlymovingand manoeuvrabletarget.Revzin (1966) claimedthatendrin of healthand/or had an adverseeffecton visual acuityin the pigeon.Anyimpairment in theproductionof thinnershelledeggs. huntingactivitymightbe reflected peregrineswhichdestroytheireggs are not obviouslyunhealthy.One Nevertheless, pair (DumfriesE) broke theireggs in 1962, rearedfouryoungkestrelsafterbreaking theirown eggsin 1963(Ratcliffe1963b),broketheireggsagain in 1964,and rearedtwo thesamebird(she youngin 1965.Duringthisperiod,thefemaleofthepairwas certainly had distinctive eggsand behaviourpattern)and appearedto be in finecondition;both the youngkestrelsand the youngperegrinesrearedby thispair werefed on a copious supplyof theusual prey. Yet anotherpossibilityis thatthinnershellsresultfromprematureextrusionof eggs, knownto occurin domesticfowlunderadverseconditions(C. Tyler,personalcommunication). Such an effectmightoccur withoutnecessarilyinvolvingchange in CaCO3 fewof therichlymarkedand marbled metabolism.Since 1947therehave been relatively typesof peregrineeggs so prizedby collectors,and a highproportionofeggshave been appears to pigmentation of the 'washy' or 'streaky'type,in whichthe richsuperficial happeneither havebeenmostlyrubbedoffwhentheeggwas laid. This could presumably was completeor 'fast',but pigmentation by theeggbeingextrudedbeforethesuperficial suchas imperfect maturation oftheshell, it could also resultfromothereffects, structural extruded of the oviductor cloaca. Prematurely inadequatepigmentsupply,or tightness and thinshelledeggsof lapwingand goldenplover(Charadriusapricarius)are sometimes ground foundnaturally,mainlyduringhard weather,and have a completelydifferent colour and type of surfacemarkingscomparedwithnormaleggs. Egg pigmentation ofanyoneinterested to measure,butmightbe worththeconsideration patternis difficult in thephysiologicalstudyof thesephenomena. While the work on hepaticenzymeinductionand steroidmetabolismsuggeststhat residuesmay affecteggshellthicknessby disturbinghormonebalance, organochlorine otherbiochemicalmechanismsincludingthose of the nervoussystemitselfcould be causationwill onlybe unravelledby involved.The detailednatureof thisfundamental carefulphysiologicaland biochemicalstudies. There is an obvious possibilityof causal relationshipbetweendecreasein eggshell thicknessand increasein eggbreakage.In the sampleof peregrineeggscollectedduring 1963-69,mean shellindexwas 1 42 in thosefromclutchesdepletedby breakage,comsignificant paredwith1-67foreggsfromnestswhereno breakagewas found,a difference at P<0O001 (t = 5 4864, df = 42). The hypothesisof a causal connectionis not damaged by the lack of an exact time D. A. RATCLIFFE 95 correlationbetweenonsetof eggshellchangeand increasedfrequencyof egg breakage. Onlyin the peregrineare the available recordsnumerousenoughto allow one to place any weighton thedatingof thebeginningof increasein egg breakage;and evenin this nests)thatit is species,therecordsforthecriticalyears1947-50are so few(twenty-nine quitepossiblethattheearliestinstancesofbreakageweremissedmerelybychance.All of thesetwenty-nine nestswerevisitedonlyonce,whentheeggswerefreshor onlyslightly incubated.The eggshellchangehas evidentlyaffectedthe whole peregrinepopulation outsidetheHighlands,but by no meansall thesefalconshave brokentheireggs,so that the onset of the second phenomenonis quite likelyto be less clearlydateable. Three instancesof eggbreakagewererecordedduring1948-49 (p. 69), but as two of theseare fromeyriesamples of unknownsize, theyare not claimed to be proof of increasein frequency. However,evenifit could be shownthatthetwophenomenadid not coincide exactlyin time,the hypothesiswould not be demolished;reasons are givenbelow for thinkingthategg breakingcould be a habit whichtakes a whileto develop.The direct causes of egg breakagemaybe simpleor complex. Eggs withthinshellsare moreproneto accidentalmechanicaldamagein thenestthan those withnormalshells.During incubationthereare normalhazards whichtestthe structuralstrengthof eggshells:the broodingparentmay accidentallycrush an egg, knockor pressone eggagainstanotheror againsta rockfragment, projectionor stickin thenest,or cause damagewithitsbillwhileturningan egg.Since 1947,I have fourtimes seen dentedperegrineeggswhichcould have been damagedin such ways,and F. Parr foundone peregrineclutchapparentlyclaw-holedby the sittingbird.The only one of thesedentedeggs actuallymeasuredhad an unusuallythinshell(index 1.25) and it is highlyprobablethatthe thinnestshelledeggs of peregrineand sparrowhawkwould be especiallysusceptibleto dentingbycontactwitheach otherin thenest.In birds,tremoring is a characteristic symptomof acute poisoningby DDT and dieldrin.It is not clear whetherlow levels of contaminationcan cause such obvious muscularresponses,but during sudden,convulsivemovementof the legs,feetor body,or evenmereclumsiness, incubationcould directly damageeggs(e.g. bydentingor claw-holing)whichwouldthen be eaten.The thinnertheeggshellthegreaterthe riskof such accidentaldamage. Howevercaused, damage to eggsin thenestusuallyelicitsa changein psychological responsein parentbirds,whichthendestroy(usuallyby eating)or removethe affected 1942a). In wildbirds, & Nethersole-Thompson eggs(Kirkman,in Nethersole-Thompson thisis normallya responseto damaged eggs only,but domesticfowlwhichhave once eaten theirown eggs oftendevelop a habit of doing so subsequently.In the wild, the recentprevalenceof egg destructionin certainraptorsprobablystemsfromincreased frequencyof damage to thinnershelledeggs; once practised,thisbehaviourcould conofeggdamageon subsequent ceivablybecomea habitwithoutneedingthespecifictrigger occasions. In thisview,parentalegg destruction would merelybe an incidentaland subsequent effectto the fundamental metabolicdisturbanceproducingthe thinnereggshells.However,in that the eggshellchangeimpliesinternalizedreductionin CaCO3 supply,the metabolicchangemightalso be expressedas behaviourtendingto increaseCaCO3 intake, i.e. a lime 'hunger'whichgives the bird an appetiteforits own eggshells,regardless ofwhethertheyare damagedor not.Certainhumandisturbances ofappetite,collectively knownas 'pica', are apparentlymetabolicallydeterminedand may sometimeshave a In someinstances,however,theeggcontentsare eaten functional nutritional significance. and mostof theshellleft,and sparrowhawks have beenfoundto tipeggsout ofthenest, D APP.E. Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds 96 z o w 0 L Lt z W -E 0 I 0.~~~~~~~~~~~~~ oZz .0 E~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. ~ UJ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ U 0 L)0 O < U UW j ..W X < _ 9~~~~~~~~~~ o :;~~~~~~~~~a _ 00C ~~~~~tU W~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ x . (fl~~~0C z 0 0 C,,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~C E 0 0)~w z Z 10 uI z 0 CEO. Cu Cu/ L zE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ E | E Eu EI .~~~~~~~0 CL~~-~U LU I zI- ~oJ u. 7E c Cd D. A. RATCLIFFE 97 withouteatinganypartof them(I. Prestt,unpublished).It is therefore possiblethategg breakingis simplya behaviouralresponseto thechangedinternalstateof thebird,with no nutritional significance, and may occurwithoutpreviousdamage to eggs. Sincethehormonesofreproduction are affected byDDT and dieldrin,itis conceivable that total reproductiveactivitymight become abated, so that incompleteeggshell formation,egg breakingand otherabnormalbehaviourwould thenbe simplydifferent aspects of this tendency.Otherfeaturesof the recentperegrinedeclinehave been the apparentfailureof manyfemalesto lay eggs,and thefrequently irregularappearanceof one or bothbirdsofa pairat thenestingcliffs, whenno eggshavebeenlaid. This suggests thata further symptom ofdeterioration to maintainnon-breeding is a tendency behaviour throughthe nestingseason, and it is possiblethathigherlevelsof contaminationcould suppressovulationand reducethestrength of thepair-bond.Therehas been an apparent increasein frequencyof desertionof incubatedeggs by peregrinesand golden eagles sincearound 1960,and, duringthe same period,goldeneagles and sparrowhawks have shown an unprecedently frequenthabit of buildingnestsbut failingto completethem. Peregrines,whichdo not build nests,have oftenscrapedand thenbrooded on empty scrapesfor some time.All thesesymptomspointingto apparentsterility could result fromchange in hormonalcondition,whichmightitselfbe temporaryor permanent, dependingon laterchangesin contamination level.In thiscontext,egg breakingmight represent of breeding,as a reactionappropriateto thehormonalstateof the termination parent. Thereis yetanotherpossibility:thatorganochlorine residueshave a directneurotoxic effect,inducingbehaviourwhichis completelypathologicaland aberrant.Kitselman (1953) foundthatat highdosage dieldrinproducedbrainlesionsin dogs but,whileit is generallybelievedthattheorganochlorine insecticides attackthecentralnervoussystem, theevidencegiveslittleindicationof effects on behaviour.Warner,Peterson& Borgman of (1965) have,however,convincingly shownthatexposureto sub-lethalconcentrations toxapheneproducedchanges-inbehaviouralresponsein goldfish.For theperegrine it is knownthatdieldrinand DDE can reachhighlevelsin thebraintissue(Jefferies & Prestt 1966).Moreover,Jefferies' (1969) evidencefortheeffects of DDT on thyroidmetabolism has clearimplicationsfora changein behaviour. In someperegrines, eggbreakingis notnoticeablyaccompaniedby otherabatementof breedingbehaviour,as in themanyinstanceswheretheemptyscrapesor brokeneggshells werebroodedforsome time; and moreparticularly in the two different pairs whichin 1961 and 1963 appropriatedkestrelclutchesaftertheyhad apparentlybrokentheirown eggs.In thesecondinstance,theyoungkestrelswerehatchedand rearedbytheperegrines as thoughtheyweretherealoffspring. In 1968,thefemaleofthesecondpair(DumfriesE) was watchedperforming scrapingmotionsin the eyrie,whichwas foundto containa singleintactegg,whileon a ledge below was another,evidentlykickedout and freshly crackedopen,butnoteaten;therewerepreviously foureggs(G. Carse). Scrapingbehaviourbelongsnormallyto thepre-laying to thetimesequenceof period,so thatdisturbance involved.Subsequentlythispair again dispossesseda breedingbehaviourwas evidently pair ofkestrelsoftheireggs,butfailedto hatchthem(J.Young). Thesecuriouseventsall suggestthatan unusualconflict ofurgeswas involved,withdisturbance butnotcessation of breedingactivities. These different hypothesesto accountforthepossiblepathwayswhichmightconnect pollutantactionwithparentalresponseare not necessarilymutuallyexclusive,and the causal relationships mayproveto be multidimensional. At a biochemicallevelone deals 98 Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds to determinea witha complexof interconnected systemsin whichit may be difficult sequenceof causation. Whateverits real meaning,thereseems littledoubt that the relationshipbetween close,and thatthe decreasein eggshellthickness and increasein eggbreakageis extremely factorresponsibleforthefirstphenomenonis ultimately thecause ofthesecond.Thereis equallylittledoubt thatthe increasein egg breakinghas been associatedwith,and resuccessin theraptorsconcerned.In sponsiblefor,a considerabledecreasein reproductive thesampleofperegrine eggscollectedduring1963-69,meanshellindexwas 1P60in those fromclutcheswhichlaterproducedfledgedyoung,comparedwith1 46 foreggsfromnests is significant at P <0-001 (t = 6 541, whichfailedto produceany young;the difference df = 42). In peregrine,sparrowhawkand golden eagle, the breakingor unexplained disappearanceof eggshas probablybeen a commoncause of breedingfailuresince1950, and has led to a substantialreductionin numberof youngrearedin Britain.This alone to accountforthepopulationdeclinein thefirsttwo species.Decrease in is not sufficient was widespreadfrom1947onwards,but no declinein breedperegrine eggshellthickness ing populationbecame apparentuntilafter1955. In fact,the eggshellchange became establishedat a timewhentheperegrine populationwas recovering rapidlyin areas firmly depletedbywar-time'control'.This is provedby data fromDorset,wherethepopulation increasedfromone pair in 1946to eightpairsin 1956and did not declineuntil1957 (D. Humphrey,unpublished),yet everyeggshellavailable after1946 was of sub-normal weight,and egg breakingwas foundin at leastthreeeyries.In Lakeland,whereeggshell changewas well establishedin 1947,therewas no clear evidenceof populationdecline until1961. In areas suchas Dorset and Lakeland,it is apparentthateggbreakagedid not greatly affectbreedingsuccessof thepopulation,as thiswas alreadylow because of egg collecting; thefirstmajorcause of eggloss merelytendedto replacetheother.However,when remoterareas, especiallyin Scotlandand Ireland,whereegg egg breakagelateraffected itresultedin effective reductionin breedingsuccess collectingwas previously insignificant, there.If breedingsuccessof the whole BritishIsles peregrinepopulationgraduallyfell ofthepopulationand, belowa criticallevel,therecouldhavebeenchangein age structure However,the 'crash' in finally,a failureto replacethelosses caused by adult mortality. breedingpopulation,beginningafter1955 and spreadingin a wave-likemannerfrom was almostcertainly southto north,was so abruptthata greatincreasein adultmortality a of there was sudden prevalence non-breeding and,in thepopulaundoubtedly involved; thanbefore1955. tionthatremained,hatchingfailureoccurredat evenhigherfrequency This populationcollapse coincidedwith the widespreadintroductionand rapidlyincontributions creasinguse of the highlytoxiccyclodieneseed dressings.The respective and breedingfailureto theperegrinepopulationdeclinewillperhaps of adult mortality neverbe known,thoughYoung (1969) has discussedtheoreticalpossibilities.Once the populationwas thus depleted,the continuedhighrate of breedingfailureamong the remainderwould tendto preventrecoveryin numbers.In thisway,a merelysub-lethal effectof persistent residuescould contributeto the presentlow state of the peregrine population. Similarconsiderationsapply to the sparrowhawk,which also showed a post-1955 population 'crash', with an associated reductionin breedingsuccess and increasein non-breeding (Prestt-1965). In thisspecies,egg breakagecould possiblyhave caused a decreasein breedingsuccessbefore1955, and has certainlydone so subsesignificant quently.As sparrowhawkbreedingpopulationswere previouslycharacterizedby sta- D. A. RATCLIFFE 99 the'crash'is likelytohave fromgame-keeping, resulting despitea heavymortality bility, of numbers recovery though,as in theperegrine, involvedincreasedadultmortality, population. in theremaining failure bythehighrateofbreeding wouldbe retarded and ofdeterioration, outputofyoungis theonlysymptom In thegoldeneagle,reduced to datetheonsetofthis It is difficult population. Scottish is shownonlybythewestern werestudying fieldworkers changein thisspecies.Despitethefactthatseveralenergetic in eggbreakage no obviousincrease goldeneaglesfrom1950onwards, Scottish western by1956(e.g.Brown& Watson1964), successhadbeenreported inbreeding ordecrease 1964). later(Lockie& Ratcliffe untilsomewhat andthesechangesdidnotdrawattention in thelate 1940sandthenweregradually DDT wereintroduced Sheepdipscontaining In thisspeciestheavailableevionwards. dipsfromthemid-1950s replacedbydieldrin mostcloselywithappearwerethuscorrelated changes thatthebiological dencesuggests itis possiblethatifdecreasein breeding However, in theenvironment. anceofdieldrin In goldeneagles, by 1950itwouldhavepassedunnoticed. successhad alreadyoccurred but,following 1963-65, during failure causeofbreeding wasthecommonest eggbreakage decrease dipsin 1966,theperiod1966-68showeda significant ofdieldrin thewithdrawal population Scottish successin thewestern in eggbreakageand increasein breeding in shellindexin a 1968-69 (Lockie et al. 1969),and therewas a partialrecovery high sampleof eggs(see noteaddedin proof,p. 106).Therewas also an unusually after1960.Thesechangestogether in thiseaglepopulation ofnon-breeding frequency in a low outputofyoungand it is probablethatby 1965thebalancebetween resulted thenthe forpopulation critical maintenance; was becoming and recruitment mortality rose. andproductivity beganto takeeffect sheep-dip ban on dieldrin datingoftheonsetof in eggshell weight, Withspecieswhichshowsmallerdecreases appearin 1951,inthekestrel first clearindications inthemerlin, changeis moredifficult; decline population has shownsubstantial in 1946,andinthehobbyin 1952.Thekestrel dataon breeding 1965),buttherearefewrecent England(Prestt in southern andeastern of kestrel eggbreakage(p. 70) were instances Bothof therecent successforthisregion. nestsseenwitheggsafter in lowlandnests,and I foundno eggbreakagein forty-three the of speciesis low(Ratcliffe contamination whereorganochlorine 1946in hillcountry, locally,butdataforthisspeciesaretoo fewto havedeclined 1965).Merlinpopulations andbreeding ineggbreakage increase ornottherehasbeena significant whether indicate thatthe informed am successofhobbiesbut ofthebreeding I haveno experience failure. received the well,despitehaving reasonably itsnumbers populationmaintains British no show signof Buzzards foroverhalfa century. of eggcollectors specialattentions northern in buttheyhavelocally(e.g. changeandonlyoccasionaleggbreakage, eggshell since1960(i.e.after inpopulation anddecrease innon-breeding England)shownincrease 1965). (Ratcliffe had madeitsimpacton thebuzzardpopulation) myxomatosis foundthata FarneIslandshagpopulation Potts(1968)in a studyoftheincreasing ofpolygamy incidence with correlation highrateofeggbreakageshoweda significant causedby was 1968 in atnests.A 'crash'intheeastcoastshagpopulation anddisturbance a Dinoflagellate bloom(Coulsonet al. 1968). crow,kittiwake theraven,carrion wereexamined, Oftheotherspecieswhoseeggshells 1940. The rook since or increase gullhave showna local general and black-headed therecontinued trend this whether uncertain atleastlocallyupto 1960butitis increased in the south, especially decline, a general shown have andrazorbill The guillemot after. a slowdeclineeviThegoldenploverhasundergone as a resultofoil pollution. mainly and onwards; from 1955 stable fairly been probably has 1940,but before beginning dently 100 Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds the greenshanksummerpopulationhas evidentlymaintaineda generalstabilityduring recentyears.(Data for the last nine species are mainlyfromParslow 1967.) There is insufficient information to allow one to stateconclusively whet-her thelast nine species have or have not experienced anymarkedchangesin breedingsuccesssince1940,butno indicationsof changein eitherdirectionhave been apparent. For thegroupof speciesexamined,correlationbetweenscale of pesticidalcontamination,eggshellchange,eggbreaking,breedingfailureand populationchangeis notconsistentthroughout. Partoftheproblemhereis thattheavailabledata on residues,eggshells and populationstatusfora speciesmayall referto different districts, and thereis a need for more criticalinformation such as that available for peregrine,sparrowhawkand goldeneagle. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF EGG BREAKING IN A 'NATURAL' SITUATION I wish finallyto examinethe possiblefunctionalsignificance of parentaleatingor disposal of damagedeggs.Accidentaldamageto eggs,whetherassociatedwithdecreasein shellthicknessor not,is likelyto resultin hatchingfailure,and egg eatingcan thenhave the effectof preventing thecontinuationof probablyfutileincubation,and thusofconservingboth theenergyof theparentsand valuablefood material.Decrease in eggshell unfavourablecondithicknessmay be a generalizedreactionto internally or externally tionsaroundlayingtime.Some suchfactors,e.g.ill-health (includingdisease),stress,food shortageand severeweather,wouldmilitateagainstsuccessful rearingofyoungiftheeggs hatched,while decrease in eggshellthicknessitselfreducesthe chances of successful theegg morefragileand proneto accidentaldamage.Egg eating hatching,by rendering would thenresultalso in avoidance of hatchingunderconditionsunfavourableto the survivalof chicks,and underextremeconditionsit mightalso increasethe chances of survivalof theparents. breeding Egg eatingmaythushaveevolvedas an adaptivemechanismwhichterminates undera widerangeof conditionswhicharisejust beforeor duringthelaying/incubation periodand are unfavourableto successfulnesting.The abilityof manyraptors(but not golden eagle and buzzard) to lay 'repeat'clutchesis relevanthere.Predationof raptor recentphenomenon,so thatthisabilityto eggsis largelyby humansand is a relatively more is to be an to more ancientcauses of eggloss or damage, 'repeat' likely adaptation such as fallingrocks,landslides,wind-blowof trees,ice or snowand severecold. Many Alaskan peregrinesnest on erodingrivercutbankswheregravitationalinstabilitycan easilyresultin damageto eggs(Cade 1960).If suchdamageoccurs,parentaleggdestructionthenpromotesa secondattemptat nestinglaterin thesame season and underpossiblyimprovedconditions. The winterof 1937, in Februaryand March was unusuallyseverein the Scottish well below average; Highlands,with exceptionalsnowfalland monthlytemperatures eighteggslaid byfivepairsof goldeneaglesduringthisspringhad a meanshellindexof 2-83. The followingwinter,1938, had only average snowfall,and January-March were higherthan average; nine eggs laid by fivepairs of golden eagles temperatures duringthisspringhad a meanshellindexof 3-10,i.e. 'normal'(Table 5). January-March 1941 was anotherwinterperiodof greaterthanaveragecold and snowfallin the Highlands,and a ravenclutchlaid in March had a lowermean eggshellindex(1 07) thanthe (in repeat(1.22) laid a monthlaterunderimprovedconditions.Nethersole-Thompson Bannermann1961) also reportsfrequently blue or bluish-white eggs findingthin-shelled D. A. RATCLIFFE 101 oflapwinglyingabandonedon fieldsin theCairngormfoothillsafterseveresnowstorms. The implicationis thatthinnereggshellswerea responseto severecold, eitherdirectly or throughincreaseddifficulty in obtainingfood,in a typicallysomewhatcalcium-deficient environment. Althoughegg eatingwas not involvedin theseexamples,theysuggesta naturalsituationin whichit could be evoked; threedifferent lapwingswereknownto eat theirdamagedeggs(Nethersole-Thompson & Nethersole-Thompson 1942b). Decrease in eggshellthicknesswould onlyfollowwhenunfavourableconditionsarose beforelayingtime,but egg eatingwould also be associatedwithadversechangeafter laying.If hormonalchangeis thebiochemicalmechanismproducingdecreasein eggshell thicknessin responseto adversity, thenit is also a predisposingfactorin any parental egg destruction whichfollowsaccidentaldamage to eggs. Can egg breakingbehaviour also be directly inducedby suchhormonalchange,occurringwithoutthespecifictrigger of eggdamage,as a parallelresponseto eggshellchange,and as partofa totalabatement ofbreedingactivityunderunfavourable conditions? Thisis a theoretical possibility which could be testedby carefulfieldobservation. to supporthis Wynne-Edwards (1962) used theevidenceforegg eatingby peregrines theoryof a homeostaticpopulationregulationdevice,wherebyindividualsreactinstinctivelyfromtheirassessmentof thefood situation,and limittheirfamilysize so thatthe populationdoes notreachthe'ceiling'ofitsresources.Egg eatingwouldthuscomplement the regulatorydevice of asynchronoushatchingwhichin many corvidsand raptors variationsin availablefoodsupply(cf.Lack 1954;Lockie adjustsbrood-sizeto short-term 1955a); it would operateduringthelayingand incubationstagesof thebreedingcycle, whereasasynchronous hatchingcan onlyoperateat thenestlingstage. ofCaCO3 metabolismcould be a directdensity-depenOn theotherhand,disturbance dent effectof available food shortage,and egg eatingwould thenbe a compensatory orindirectly reaction,eitheras an innateresponseto calciumdeficiency, throughthemore frequentdamage to the thinner-shelled eggs. The frequenteatingof hatchedeggshells suggeststhatmanyspecieshave a need to conservecalcium. The findingof manybrokeneggsin nestsof short-eared owls (Asioflammeus)during thefirstyearof a vole plague 'crash' (Lockie 1955b)is suggestive. Increasedhuntingby the owls doubtlessgave greaterchancesforpredationofnests,buttheshortageoffood and increasedcompetition mighthave producedphysiological changesin theowls.Stress is certainlyindicatedas a cause of parentalegg breakageamong some bird speciesin captivity. of eggdestrucNeitherthehomeostaticnordensity-dependent viewofthesignificance tion,as a responseto food shortage,appear to be relevantto the recentcontextof increasedegg destruction among Britishraptors.In the peregrineand sparrowhawk, egg rateforseveralyearsafter breakinghas continuedto occurat a highand undiminished the populationsof both reachedtheirlowestknownlevels.The lack of a tendencyto asynchronoushatchingin the Britishperegrinealso impliesthat this species is not normallysubjectto variationsin foodsupplyin thiscountryduringnestingtime.Shortage of food is moreconceivablein theclimatically marginalregions,botharidand arctic,of theperegrine's worldrange,and itis herethateggeatingcouldbe an associatedregulatory or compensatory mechanism.It is interesting thatLewis (1938) foundtwo instancesof smashedand disappearingeggsand two smallclutches(one and two eggs)in a seriesof eighteyriesof Iceland falcon (Falco rusticolusislandicus),a species normallylaying in clutchesoffoureggsand knownto be moreaffected thantheperegrine byfluctuations food supply(Cade 1960). Some otherBritishraptorsmorecertainly showasynchronous 102 Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds hatching,especiallythegoldeneagle and buzzard,withtheimplications forvariablefood supplyduringthenestingseason. Sometimeseggdestruction involvesremovaloftheintacteggsinsteadof eggeating.Is therea possibleconnectionbetweenthese activitiesand the normal,stronglyadaptive behaviourof eggshelldisposal afterhatching?Especiallyin those birdswhicheat the hatchedeggshells,such behaviourpointsto a delicatebalance betweentwo conflicting urgesin theparent;thecompulsionto protecttheegg and to removeit once theshellis opened (Nethersole-Thompson & Nethersole-Thompson 1942a).The actionsof a male heronwhichrepeatedlydestroyedits own eggswerereminiscent of eggshelldisposal or nest cleaningbehaviour(I. Prestt,personalcommunication). Many mammalshabitually eat theirplacentasand it is onlyone stepfurther forthemto eat theirsmallyoung.It is well knownthatrabbits,rats and pigs in captivitysometimeseat theirown young,especiallyafterbeingdisturbed.Armstrong (1947) regardsparentaleggdestruction bywild birdsas a displacementreaction,but thisbehaviourcould perhapsbe adaptivewhena predatorhas discoveredthenest.Lorenz(1966) believesthatin manyvertebrates onlythe developmentof special inhibitionspreventsthe expressionof aggressionby parents towardstheiryoung,and pointsoutthatvariouscircumstances these mayeasilyover-ride farm inhibitions;he mentionsa case wherean aeroplaneflyinglow over a silver-fox caused all themothervixensto eat theiryoung.Richards(1966,1967)has investigated this conflicting behaviourin thegoldenhamster(Mesocrietusauratus);itis onlywhenfemales are in thehormonalconditionappropriateto theperinatalperiodthatyoungare cared for; at all othertimestheyare killedand eaten. It thusappearsthata numberofvertebrates to destroytheirown havea latenttendency progeny,and thatsuchmanifestbehaviourcan be adaptivein severaldifferent contexts, thoughit could at timesbe regardedas simplyaberrant(i.e. non-adaptiveand pathological).This latentbehaviourcan evidently be activatedby internalbiochemicalchange fromperceptionof,or directbodilyresponseto,externalchangein conditions). (resulting is therefore thatcertainorganochlorine residuesmay,bychance, My tentative suggestion impingeon thebiochemicalprocesseswhichgovernnormalbehaviourpatternsin sucha latentbehaviouris expressed.In thissituation,thelatentbehaviour waythatalternative, (egg breaking)maystillbe expressedadaptively,in thatotherinternalchanges(decrease in eggshellthickness)are likelyto reducethe chances of successfulbreeding;but this behaviourcould also be regardedas aberrantin a generalsense,and its outcomeas to the species. detrimental ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am gratefulto thefollowing,who have suppliedme withrelevantinformation, mostly unpublished:E. K. Allin,C. Best, R. J. Birkett,E. Blezard,D. Brown,S. S. Chesser, G. Douglas, W. J.Eggeling,I. E. Hills,G. Horne,D. Humphrey, P. Kimber,R. Laidler, J. Mitchell,W. Murdoch,D. Nethersole-Thompson, R. Newman,F. Parr,I. Prestt,A. Rendall, E. L. Roberts,J. Robson, R. Stokoe,A. Watson,D. Watson,D. Weir,J. E. Wightman,M. Woodford.For access to egg collectionsin theircare, I have to thank C. J. 0. Harrison,I. Lyster,R. Wagstaffe, D. Wilsonand C. W. Benson; and I received generoushelp fromth-efourteenownersof privateegg collectionswho wishto remain anonymous.It is a pleasureto acknowledgethehelp and companionshipof E. Blezard and C. Durellin thefield.ThroughthekindnessofD. Lack, I consultedthejournalsofthe late E. B. Dunlop, and R. E. Booth of the MeteorologicalOfficecontributeddata on D. A. RATCLIFFE 103 weather.I. Presttand A. Tynansuppliedeggshellsforchemicalanalysis,and C. Tyler and in peregrine thedecreasein eggshellthickness byexactmeasurement kindlyconfirmed residueswereperanalysesof organochlorine Gas-liquid chromatography sparrowhawk. formedby the AgriculturalScientificServicesof the Departmentof Agricultureand Fisheriesfor Scotland,Edinburgh,and the Laboratoryof the GovernmentChemist, Toxic Chemicals oftheNatureConservancy's London,as partoftheresearchprogramme and WildlifeDivision,and I thankN. W. Moore forallowingme to use theseresults freely. I appreciategreatlytheviewsand ideas receivedin discussionwithmanyof theabove J.D. Lockie,N. named,and J. P. Dempster,M. C. French,J.J. Hickey,D. J.Jefferies, J.L. F. Parslow,M. P. M. Richards,J.G. Skellam,Mrs L. Stickel, W. Moore,F. Moriarty, For theirhelp withstatisticalanalysis W. Stickel,C. Tylerand V. C. Wynne-Edwards. to K. Lakhaniand M. D. Mountford.Manyotherswhohaveat of the data,I am grateful to thepresentpaper, have thuscontributed sometimehelpedme withraptorinformation of theirhelp. and I regretit is not possibleto giveherean individualacknowledgment Finally,mygratitudeis due to Miss S. Batchelorand Mrs M. Haas, who have helped enormouslyin thepreparationof thispaper,especiallyin processingthe eggshelldata. SUMMARY in the nests frequency (1) Since 1950,egg breakagehas occurredwithunprecedented and goldeneagles.The majorityof theseeggbreakof Britishperegrines, sparrowhawks ages are believedto have been caused by the parentbirdsthemselves,usuallyby the eatingof both shelland contents. (2) One proximatecause of thisphenomenonappearsto have been a widespreadand substantialdecrease in relativeweight(largelythickness)of eggshellsof peregrines, In the firsttwo sparrowhawksand golden eagles (19.1, 17-2and 9.90o respectively). species,this eggshellchange began in 1946-47,reached a climaxin 1948-50, and has persistedup to 1969. In the goldeneagle it probablybegan not laterthan 1951. Other species showingdecreasein relativeweightof eggshellsare kestrel(4.900, from1946), merlin(12.700, from1951), hobby (5.2%, from1952),shag (12.3o%, from1951),rook changewas found (5O00o from1958)and carrioncrow(4.80 from1958).No significant black-headedgull, razorbill,kittiwake, in eggshellsofcommonbuzzard,raven,guillemot, goldenploverand greenshank. change which parallels the eggshellchange in (3) The only known environmental has a likelyphysiologicalconnection,is thewideand timingand geographicalpattern, of the organicchemecosystemby residuesof synthetic spreadpost-1945contamination comIn in icals used as pesticidesand industry. particular,persistentorganochlorine been shown and have to of wild tissues experimentally in raptors, poundsaccumulate the The in birds. introduction of calcium mechanisms general affecting disturbphysiological horticultural and and then into into first use, DDT and yBHC, domestic,veterinary during1946-48,coincidedexactlywiththeonsetof theeggshellchange,and agriculture, thesechemicalsare suspectas initiatorsof thischange.The post-1955use of dieldrincontaminationand probably typeinsecticidescontributedadditivelyto organochlorine showeda theinitialeggshellchange;theindustrialpollutantPCBs evidently reinforced and could also have contrienvironmental as an increase contaminant, post-war gradual butedto theeggshellchange. (4) WithinBritain,thereis a strongcorrelationbetweengeographicalvariationsin 104 Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds leveloforganochlorine contamination, degreeofchangein eggshellweight,and frequency of egg breakage,in peregrine, sparrowhawk and goldeneagle. (5) Organochlorine contaminationevidentlytriggers a causal chain in some raptors; decreasein eggshellthickness(producingreducedmechanicalstrength)leads to more frequentaccidentaldamageto eggs,and henceto morefrequent parentaleggdestruction (sincebirdshave an innatetendencyto destroytheirdamagedeggs).Adverseeffects on breedingbehaviourmay also occur. The outcomeis a reductionin breedingsuccess. While the well-knownpopulation'crashes' of peregrineand sparrowhawkafter1955 thedeclinesin breedingsuccessmay evidently involvedunusuallyheavyadultmortality, have contributed, and would certainlyhelp to preventrecovery. (6) Interspecific differences in eggshellchange probably reflecta combinationof in exposureto persistent differences residuecontamination, differential uptakeand variationsin biochemicalresponseto a particularlevel of a residue. (7) Parentegg-breaking may be a normal,adaptiveresponseto variousadverseconand militateagainstsuccessfulbreedditionswhicharisebetweenovulationand hatching, ing. Contaminationby chemicalresidues,whenresultingin eggshellchange,takes the place of a 'natural'adversefactor,but theoutcomeis moredetrimental to thespeciesif reducedbreedingsuccessis maintained. REFERENCES London. Armstrong, E. A. (1947).BirdDisplayandBehaviour. and London. Isles,Vol. 10. Edinburgh Bannerman, D. A. (1961).TheBirdsoftheBritish of Swedish T. (1966). Mercurycontentin feathers A., Sjdstrand, B. & Westermark, Berg,W., Johnels, birdsfromthepast 100years. Oikos,17, 71-83. Blezard,E. (1946).LakelandNaturalHistory. Trans.Carlislenat.Hist.Soc. 7 (frontispiece). A. (1964).Thegoldeneagleinrelationto itsfoodsupply. Ibis,106,78-100. Brown, L. H. & Watson, and gyrfalconpopulationsin Alaska. Univ.Calif.Publs Cade, T. J. (1960).Ecologyof theperegrine Zool. 63, 151-290. Campbell, B. (1960).Brokeneggsin nestsofsparrowhawk.Br. Birds,53, 221. Pesticides. London. Organochlorine Cook,J. W. (Chairman)(1964).ReviewofthePersistent intheBritish Isles. BirdStudy,10,147-79. Coulson,J. C. (1963).Thestatusofthekittiwake ofshagsand other mortality Coulson,J.C., Potts,G. R., Deans,I. R. & Fraser,S. M. (1968).Exceptional shellfish seabirdscausedbyparalytic poison. Br. Birds,61, 381-404. ofthejay Garrulusglendarius. on behaviour Ibis,98, 186-219. D. (1956).Further observations Goodwin, Hall, H. (1955).GreatMomentsinAction-TheStoryoftheSunLifeFalcons.Montreal. FalconPopulations; theirBiologyandDecline.Madison,Milwaukeeand Hickey,J. J. (1969).Peregrine London. and D. W. (1968).Chlorinated andeggshell changesinraptorial hydrocarbons Hickey,J.J. & Anderson, birds. Science,N. Y. 162,271-3. fish-eating of and pinealbody.Biologyand Comparative Physiology Hohn,E. 0. (1961).Endocrineglands,thymus Birds,Vol. 2 (Ed. byA. J.Marshal),pp. 87-114.New York. in Britishwildlife. J. H. & Tatton,J. O'G. (1967).Chlorinated hydrocarbons Holmes,D. C., Simmons, Nature,Lond.216,227-9. in the D. J. (1967).The delayin ovulationproducedbypp'-DDT and itspossiblesignificance Jefferies, field. Ibis,109,266-72. D. J. (1969).Inductionof apparenthyperthyroidism in birdsfedDDT. Nature,Lond.222, Jefferies, 578-9. reference to and lannerswithparticular D. J. & Prestt,I. (1966).Post-mortems ofperegrines Jefferies, residues. Br. Birds,59, 49-64. organochlorine M. C. (1969).AvianThyroid:effect ofpp'-DDT on sizeand activity.Science, D. J.& French, Jefferies, N. Y. 166,1278-80. Jensen, S. (1966).Reportofa newchemicalhazard. NewScient.32, 612. cornto hensand B. S. (1955).The toxicity ofArasan-treated E. L., Waibel,P. E. & Pomeroy, Johnson, chicks. Proc.Am.vet.med.Ass.,No. 92, 322-3. in caninepractice. Vet.Rec. 58, 465-6. Kirk,H. (1946).DDT and gammexane D. A. RATCLIFFE 105 dosages,with Kitselman, C. H. (1953).Longtermstudieson dogsfedaldrinand dieldrinin sub-lethal reference to thehistopathological findings andreproduction.J.Am.vet.med.Ass.123,28-30. onsteroidfunction andmetabolism. Kupfer, D. (1967).Effects ofsomepesticides andrelatedcompounds ResidueRev.19, 11-30. Oxford. Lack,D. (1954).TheNaturalRegulation ofAnimalNumbers. Lewis,E. (Vesey,E.) (1938).In SearchoftheGyrFalcon.London. Lockie,J.D. (1955a).Thebreeding andfeeding ofjackdawsandrookswithnoteson carrioncrowsand otherCorvidae. Ibis,97, 341-69. owlsaftera voleplague. BirdStudy, Lockie,J.D. (1955b).Thebreeding habitsandfoodofshort-eared 2, 53-69. Lockie,J.D. & Ratcliffe, D. A. (1964).Insecticides and Scottishgoldeneagles. Br.Birds,57, 89-102. R. (1969). Breedingsuccessand dieldrincontamination of Lockie,J. D., Ratcliffe, D. A. & Balharry, goldeneaglesin WestScotland. J.appl.Ecol,6, 381-9. Lorenz,K. (1966).On Aggression. London. ofeggshell to crackedeggs. Poult.Sci. 44, 1513-8. weight McNally,E. H. (1965).Therelationship Massee,A. M. (1945).Noteson someinteresting insectsobservedin 1945. Rep.E. MallingRes. Stn, 1945. Massee,A. M. (1946).Noteson someinteresting insectsobservedin 1946. Rep.E. MallingRes. Stn, 1946. Mellanby, K. (1967).Pesticides andPollution. London. cycleofthegreyheronArdeacinerea. Ardea. Millstein, P., Prestt, I. & Bell,A. A. (inpress).Thebreeding contamination bypesticides. EcologyandtheIndustrial Society:a Moore,N. W. (1965a).Environmental Symposium of theBritishEcologicalSociety(Ed. by G. T. Goodman),pp. 219-37. Oxford& Edinburgh. Moore,N. W. (1965b).Pesticidesand birds-a reviewof thesituationin GreatBritainin 1965. Bird Study,12,222-52. insecticide residuesin theeggsof sea birds. Moore,N. W. & Tatton,J. O'G. (1965). Organochlorine Nature,Lond.207,42-3. D. (1942a).Eggshelldisposalbybirds. Br.Birds,35, C. & Nethersole-Thompson, Nethersole-Thompson, 162-9,190-200,214-23,241-50. D. (1942b).Reactionsof lapwingstowardsdamaged Nethersole-Thompson, C. & Nethersole-Thompson, eggs. Br. Birds,36, 99. Peakall,D. B. (1967). Pesticide-induced enzymebreakdownof steroidsin birds. Nature,Lond.216, 505-6. of ziramand of zinebfeedingon layinghens. Notiz.Mal. Piante,59/60, Picco,D. (1962).The effect 281-314. birdsin BritainandIreland. Br. Birds,60, Parslow,J. L. F. (1967).Changesin statusamongbreeding 2-47,97-123,177-202,261-85. on sparrowhawkeggshellsand S. N. (1969). Dieldrinand DDT: effects Porter,R. D. & Wiemeyer, reproduction.Science,N. Y. 165,199-200. in relationto Potts,G. R. (1968). Successof eggsof theshagon theFarneIslands,Northumberland, theircontentofdieldrinand pp'-DDE. Nature,Lond.217,1282-4. oferuptive movements, age,populationsize and otherfactorson the Potts,G. R. (1969).The influence aristotelis survivaloftheshag(Phalacrocorax (L.)). J.Anim.Ecol. 38, 53-102. Prestt,I. (1965).An enquiryintotherecentbreedingstatusof someof thesmallerbirdsof preyand crowsin Britain. BirdStudy,12, 196-221. of organochlorine insecticides on wildpredatory intopossibleeffects Prestt,I. (1967). Investigations birds. Proc.4thBr. Insect.Fungicide Conf.1, 26-35. in wild birdsin Britain D. J. & Moore,N. W. (1970). Polychlorinated biphenyls Prestt,I., Jefferies, and theiraviantoxicity.Envir.Polln,1. 0. G. (1967).Surveyofquantitative relations betweeningestion Quaife,M. L., Winbush, J.S. & Fitzhugh, and storageofaldrinand dieldrinin animalsand man. Fd Cosmet.Toxicol.5, 39-50. D. A. (1958).Brokeneggsin peregrine Ratcliffe, eyries. Br. Birds,51, 23-6. andgoldeneagle. Br.Birds,53,128-30. D. A. (1960).Brokeneggsinthenestsofsparrowhawk Ratcliffe, andravenCorvuscorax. Ibis, in theperegrine Falcoperegrinus D. A. (1962).Breeding Ratcliffe, density 104,13-39. in GreatBritain. BirdStudy,10,56-90. D. A. (1963a).The statusoftheperegrine Ratcliffe, Ratcliffe, D. A. (1963b).Peregrines rearingyoungkestrels.Br. Birds,56, 457-60. Britain. D. A. (1965).Organochiorine residuesin someraptorand corvideggsfromnorthern Ratcliffe, Br. Birds,58, 65-81. Lond.215,208-10. incertainbirdsofprey. Nature, Ratcliffe, D. A. (1967a).Decreaseineggshell weight in GreatBritain1965-66. BirdStudy,14,238-46. D. A. (1967b).The peregrine situation Ratcliffe, function in thepigeon. Toxic.appl.Pharmac. ofendrinon telencephalic Revzin,A. M. (1966).Effects 9, 75-83. 106 Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds residueanalysis. withpesticide (PCBs) andtheirinterference L. M. (1969).Polychlorobiphenyls Reynolds, Bull.envir.Contam.Toxicol.(U.S.), 4, 128-43. to youngin responsiveness Richards,M. P. M. (1966). Maternalbehaviourin the goldenham,ster: females. Anim.Behav.14, 310-3. pregnant and lactating virgin, Physiol.2, M. P. M. (1967). Maternalbehaviourin rodentsand lagomorphs.Adv.reprod. Richards, 53-110. M. N. (1968).Polychlorinated R. W., Rieche,P., Herman,S. G., Peakall,D. B. & Kirven, Riseborough, in theglobalecosystem.Nature,Lond.220,1098-102. biphenyls A. J. (1949). TheAvianEgg. New York. A. L. & Romanoff, Romanoff, Shaw,H. (1946a).Someuses ofDDT in agriculture.Nature,Lond.157,285-90. DDT and Benzenehexachloride in agriand theirsignificance Shaw,H. (1946b).The newinsecticides culture. JlR. agric.Soc. 106,204-20. New York. P. D. (1965).AvianPhysiology. Sturkie, in Cornwall. Br. Birds,54, 136-42. R. B. (1961).Noteson theperegrine Treleaven, of sulphanilamide on themetabolism of calciumcarbonate,phosphorus, Tyler,C. (1950). The effects in thelayinghen. Br.J. Nutr.4, 112-28. chlorideand nitrogen pore-and of membrane-, I. The determination Tyler,C. & Geake,F. H. (1953). Studieson eggshells. J. Sci. Fd Agric.4, 261-6. matrix-protein. London. Vogt,W. (1948).TheRoad to Survival. J. (1938).A HistoryofSussexBirds.London. Walpole-Bond, in fish:a quantitative L. (1966).Behaviouralpathology K. K. & Borgman, W. R. E., Peterson, Warner, pesticidetoxication.J. appl.Ecol. (Suppl.),3, 22347. studyofsublethal L. F. (1961).KeepyourPigeonsFlying.London. Whitney, V. B. (1945).DDT and thebalanceofnature. Atlant.Mon. 176,107-13. Wigglesworth, and goldeneagles. Br. and othersea-birds as preyofperegrines P. (1965).Manxshearwaters Wormell, Birds,58, 149. and London. inrelation toSocialBehaviour. V. C. (1962).AnimalDispersion Edinburgh Wynne-Edwards, Their on peregrine FalconPopulations: Peregrine populationdynamics. Young,H. F. (1969).Hypotheses Biologyand Decline(Ed. byJ.J.Hickey),pp. 513-9.Madison,Milwaukeeand London. (Received20 May 1969) Note added inproof have produced otherinvestigations Sincethispaperwas acceptedforpublication, change. of on thecause eggshell itsmainconclusions supporting evidencestrongly demonstrated studies have three other on sparrowhawks, American Besidesthework in thickness producedecreasein eggshell thatorganochlorine pesticides experimentally produced DDT and fed pp' op' birds.Bitmanet al. (1969)foundthatJapanesequail than ofshellweight) (as a percentage shellsand lowercalciumcontent eggswiththinner of include inhibition they involved mechanisms biochemical usual. Amongpossible avian in the activity anhydrase of carbonic and inhibition bone formation medullary decreasesin gland.Heath,Spann& Kreitzer(1969)obtainedsignificant shell-forming (Anasplatyof in mallard eggshells in cracking and increases (1300) thickness eggshell mallard that found feeding & Egbert (1969) Lehner and DDE. DDT fedpp' rhynchos) that and in eggshell thickness, a decrease caused significant dieldrin with1 6 ppm deThese studies obtained further effect. this level had little above increaseddosage those to levels comparable dose sub-lethal at thickness experimental in eggshell creases in thefield. foundwiththesepesticides golden western Scottish isthata sampleofseventeen evidence observational Additional indexof 3-066whichis sigeagleeggsobtainedduring1968-69showa meaneggshell fromthe meanindexof 2-834forthe 1951-65samplefromthis different nificantly thatas wellas thedecreasein egg region(P < 0.01,t = 2-754,df42). This suggests by Lockieet al. (1969),there successreported in breeding breakageand therecovery sheep in thisspeciessincethedieldrin ineggshell thickness has beena partialrecovery in 1966. dip ban wasimplemented D. A. RATCLIFFE 107 REFERENCES Bitman,J.,Cecil,H. C., Harris,S. J. & Fries,G. F. (1969).DDT inducesa decreasein eggshell calcium. Nature,Lond.224,44-6. ofMallardreproduction J. F. (1969). MarkedDDE impairment Heath,R. G., Spann,J. W. & Kreitzer, in controlled studies. Nature,Lond.224,47-8. Lehner, P. N. & Egbert, A. (1969).Dieldrinandeggshell thickness inducks. Nature, Lond.224,1218-9. 108 Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds APPENDIX depletedclutchesknowninperegrineeyries Recordsofsixty-one examinedby D. A. Ratcliffe1949-68 eyrieA. 18 April 1949. c/2 and one egg, emptyand withlarge (1) Kirkcudbright, hole, in crevice12 ftbelow eyrie.Brokenegg was pure whitewhereasothertwo were typicalred. Two femalesabout and one seen in skirmishwithmale. Clutchfreshand perhapsincomplete. 21 June1949. Eyrienot reached,but obviouslyhad no young. (2) Cumberland,eyrieA. 10 April 1951.c/3,freshand perhapsincompleteclutch. shell 12 April 1951. Two eggsbroken;femalewatchedeatingone, stale comminuted of the other.Thirdegg undamaged.Not re-visited. fragments eyrieB. 18 April 1951. c/2,and comminutedshellof at least one (3) Kirkcudbright, moreegg in the scrape.Eggs incubatedprobablya fewdays. Not re-visited. (4) Caernarvon,eyrieA. 29 April 1951.c/2,incubatedprobablya week. 3 May 1951.Comminutedshellofone eggin thescrape;theotherintact.Not re-visited. brokeneggshellon hillside, (5) Dumfries,eyrieA. 1 June,1951.Largepiece ofrecently within2-300 yd of eyrieledges.Both peregrinesabout, but evidentlywithno occupied eyrie. shellofat leastone more eyrieC. 4 June1951.c/2and comminuted (6) Kirkcudbright, egg in the scrape. Eggs a few days incubated.A repeatclutchafterprobable human nest.Not re-visited. robberyof firstlayingin a different eyrieD. 8 April 1952.c/3and comminutedshellof anothereggin (7) Kirkcudbright, thescrape.Eggs freshand breakagemayhave occurredbeforefourthegg was laid. One younglaterreportedhatched,but finallyfounddead (G. Trafford). (8) Caernarvon.11 May 1952.c/I and comminutedshellsof othereggsin the scrape. Incubationwell advanced. 30 May 1952.Brokenshelland congealedcontentsfromlasteggin thescrape.Female stillsittingon theeyrie(P. Kimber). (9) Dumfries,eyrieA. 6 April 1953. c/3 and fourthegg empty,withlarge hole, on notthelastlaid. Not ground20 ftbeloweyrie.Clutchfresh,and brokeneggwas evidently re-visited. shellof at leastone more (10) Merioneth,eyrieA. 25 April1953.c/2and comminuted in Incubation well advanced. the scrape. egg (11) Cumberland,eyrieB. 8 April 1955. c/4fresh.Reportedlaterwithonlytwo eggs and thesedisappearedone by one (F. Parr). eyrieC. 17 April 1955.c/2,apparentlyincubatedat least a week. (12) Kirkcudbright, of othereggs. Reportedlaterwithonly one egg, but thisprovedto be No fragments addled and was finallydeserted(W. Murdoch). of (13) Dumfries,eyri!B. 19April1955.c/i,advancedin incubation,butno fragments othereggs.Not re-visited. (14) Dumfries,eyrieA. 19 April 1955. c/I advancedin incubation;nestviewedfrom 15 ftaway,and no remainsof othereggsvisibleat thisdistance.Not re-visited. of (15) Peebles,eyrieA. 20 April 1955.c/2advancedin incubation,but no fragments othereggs. 25 May 1955.Brokenremainsof one egg and the otherdeserted,but bothperegrines about near theeyrie(W. J. Eggeling). D. A. RATCLIFFE 109 (16) Caernarvon,eyrieC. 18 April1956.c/l,advancedin incubation,and comminuted shell of othereggsin theeyrie.Eyrielaterreportedempty(E. K. Allin). (17) Dumfries,eyrieC. 20 April,1959.c/l, advancedin incubation,and comminuted shell of othereggsin the scrape.Not re-visited. (18) Dumfries,eyrieB. 26 April 1959.c/i, advancedin incubation.Nest viewedfrom 30 ftaway,and no remainsof othereggsvisibleat thisdistance.Not re-visited. eyrieA. 9 April 1960.c/3fresh.Later reportedbroken(F. Parr). (19) Westmoreland, (20) Cumberland,eyrieC. 13 April 1960. c/3,fresh.Later reportedto have disappeared; robberyunlikely(R. J. Birkett). (21) Dumfries,eyrieB. 16 April 1960. Half the shellof an egg,veryrecentlybroken, lying30 ftbelow eyrie,on a ledge. Female present.No repeatfound. (22) Dumfries,eyrieA. 16April1960.Brokenremainsofthreeeggsin thescrape.Eggs completelysmashedand empty,but shellsleftin big pieces. Female present. eyrieE. 23 April1960.Eyrieempty,butemptyeggwithlargehole (23) Kirkcudbright, lyingon thehillsideabout 30 yd away. Female present. (24) Cumberland,eyrieD. 30 April 1960. c/3,evidentlyadvancedin incubation. 24 May 1960. Eyrieempty,but not reached.Robberynot suspected. shellof (25) Dumfries, eyrieA. 11 May 1960.Repeat layingof22. c/2and comminuted at least one moreegg in the scrape.Eggs fresh.Not re-visited. (26) Tiree. 12 June1960.c/l,probablyfaradvancedin incubation.Nest viewedfrom 10 ftaway and no remainsof othereggsvisibleat thisdistance.Not re-visited. (27) Peebles,eyrieB. 23 April 1961. c/2,and comminutedshellof at least one more incubated. egg in the scrape.Eggs probablyslightly 6 June1961. One young,whichwas reared. (28) Inverness.11 May 1961.c/I hatching.The eyriecould not be examinedforshell remains,owingto awkwardnessof situation.One youngreportedto reared(M. Woodford). (29) Inverness,eyrieB. 13 May 1961. Comminutedshellof recentlydestroyedegg in the eyrie.Female was incubatinga c/6 of kestrelon anotherledge,havingevidently dispossessedthe owners.Not re-visited. (30) Ross-shire, eyrieA. 16 May 1961.Brokenremainsoftwoor threeeggsin theeyrie. been eaten,not merelycrushed. One or two stonesin theeyrie,but eggshad evidently (31) Perthshire, eyrieA. 30 June1961.c/2,and comminutedshellof at leastone more egg in the scrape.Both eggsaddled but femalestillincubating. (32) Dumfries,eyrieD. 7 April 1962.c/3,and comminutedshellof at least one more egg in theeyrie.One eggwas quitefresh,indicatingbreakagehad occurredbeforeclutch completed.Nest laterreportedto have failed(W. J. Eggeling). (33) Peebles,eyrieB. 8 April 1962.c/l, fresh. 26 May 1962. Eyrieempty,but forcomminutedeggshell. (34) Dumfries,eyrieE. 7 July1962.Comminutedshellofprobablymorethanone egg in thescrape.Both peregrinesstillabout. (35) Dumfries,eyrieE. II April 1963. c/4,fresh.One egg takenforanalysis. leftfromthisclutch,but peregrine 14 May 1963. Only a few small shellfragments incubatingc/4 of kestrellaid in same eyrie.The kestreleggshatchedlaterand all four youngwererearedto theflyingstageby theperegrines. (36) Inverness.14 April 1963.c/I fresh. 23 June1963. Nest empty,exceptforcomminutedshellfragments. (37) Peebles,eyrieB. 18 April 1963. c/3,fresh,one egg takenforanalysis. 110 Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds 11 May 1963.c/2.One egg obviouslyaddled,the otherfertile. 20 May 1963. Addled egg vanished withouttraceand fertileegg deserted,but the embryohad been dead fora week. (38) Kirkcudbright, eyrieF. 19 April 1963. c/3and comminutedshellof at least one moreegg in thescrape.One eggtakenforanalysis.The othertwoeggsdisappearedlater (E. L. Roberts). (39) Kirkcudbright, eyrieE. 19 April 1963. c/3and comminutedshellof at least one more egg in thescrape.One egg takenforanalysis.The othertwoeggsdisappearedlater (D. Watson). (40) Perthshire, eyrieB. 21 April 1963.c/3and largepieces of shellof anotheregg in the scrape.Not re-visited. (41) Inverness.eyrieD. 22 April 1963,c/4,somewhatincubated.Nest laterreported empty(F. Parr),but no reasonto suspecthumanrobbery. (42) Dumfries,eyrieE. 14 April 1964. c/4,fresh,one takenforanalysis. 31 May 1964.One desertedaddled egg,and thecomminutedshellsoftheothertwoin the scrape. (43) Peebles,eyrieB. 14 April 1964. c/4,fresh,one takenforanalysis. 31 May 1964. One deserted,addled egg,and the comminutedshellsof theothertwo in the scrape. incubated. (44) Peebles,eyrieA. 1 May 1964. c/4,slightly June1964. Female sittingcloselyon largebrokenpieces of shellof all foureggs. incubated.Repeat layingof 42. In (45) Dumfries,eyrieE. 31 May 1964.c/2,slightly Novemberthefemalewas sittingon theeyrie,buttherewas no traceoftheseeggs,and no younghad been reared. (46) Kirkcudbright, eyrieD. 8 April1965.c/4,fresh.One eggtakenforanalysis.Eyrie found1 June1966. laterreportedempty(E. L. Roberts)and shellfragments (47) Kirkcudbright, eyrieB. 11 April 1965. c/3,fresh.Eyrie later reportedempty found8 April 1966. (E. L. Roberts)and shellfragments 11 incubated(J. Mitchell). 1965. (48) Stirlingshire. May c/4,slightly near but no trace of fourthegg.Threeyounglaterreared 5 June1965.c/3, hatching, (J. Mitchell). (49) Perthshire, eyrieC. 9 May 1965.c/4,incubated(J. Mitchell). in the scrape. 6 June1965. Onlycomminutedshellfragments 8 D. 1966. and (50) Kirkcudbright, eyrie April c/2 largefreshly brokenfragments of at leastone moreeggin thescrape,whichalso helda peregrine castingcontainingshellfrom thisegg. One of the othertwo eggshad two dents;thisegg was takenforanalysis. 1 June1966. Eyrieempty,but repeatclutchfound(52). brokenfragments (51) Kirkcudbright, eyrieC. 8 April1966.c/2and crumpled,freshly of at least one moreegg in the scrape.One egg takenforanalysis. 1 June1966. Eyrieempty. (52) Kirkcudbright, eyrieD. 1 June1966.Repeatof50. c/2and comminuted shellofat leastone moreeggin thescrape.One eggwas 'chipping',buttheotherwas deeplydented, and its well-developed embryohad died. The dentedegg was takenforanalysis. (53) Kirkcudbright, eyrieD. 8 April 1967.c/4,fresh.Eyrielaterfoundemptyexceptfor brokenshells(G. Horme).The femalewas thesame as thatoccupyingthiseyriein 1965 (46) and 1966 (50, 52). (54) Peebles,eyrieB. 11 April1967.c/2,fresh.Eyrielaterfoundempty(G. Carse),but no reasonto suspectrobbery. D. A. RATCLIFFE 1I1 (55) Kirkcudbright, eyrieC. 9 April 1968. c/3,slightlyincubated;one egg takenfor analysis.A singleegg laterstillbeingincubated(R. Roxburgh). (56) Dumfries,eyrieE. 9 April 1968. c/4,fresh,one egg witha hole in its side and completelyempty,as thoughsucked.Not re-visited. (57) Dumfries,eyrieA. 10 April 1968. c/2,fresh. 15 May 1968. Brokenshellsin theeyrie(G. Horne). (58) Peebles,eyrieB. 10 April 1968.c/3,fresh;one egg takenforanalysis.Eyrielater foundempty(G. Carse) but no reasonto suspectrobbery. (59) Perthshire, eyrieD. 11 April 1968. c/4,fresh;one egg takenforanalysis.Eyrie laterfounddeserted,but youngrearedfromrepeatclutch(J. Mitchell). - (60) Cumberland,eyrieD. 17 April1968.c/3and comminuted shellof a fourtheggin the scrape.Remainingeggsseen intactjust beforehatchingbut onlyone youngreared (R. J. Birkett). 6 June1968.Comminutedshellof at leasttwoeggsin thescrape. (61) Aberdeenshire. / EGG DATA (1) Sourcesof materials Measurementsof eggshellswereobtainedfromthefollowingegg collections: E. P. Chance collectionin theBritishMuseum(NaturalHistory),London. Generaland Sir Maurice Denny collectionsin the Royal ScottishMuseum,Edinburgh. V. Hewittcollections(mainlyF. C. R. Jourdainand J. M. Goodall) in Rothschild Museum,Tring. Ootheca Wolleyana(J. Wolley collection)in Departmentof Zoology, University of Cambridge. Generalcollectionin the Cityof LiverpoolMuseums. Fourteendifferent collectionsin privateownership. Mostly singleeggs,taken underlicenceduringthe period 1963-68,for chemical oftheToxic Chemicalsand WildlifeDivision, analysisas partoftheresearchprogramme Monks Wood Experimental Station. Fennoscandianperegrine Exceptfor twenty-two eggsin OothecaWolleyana,all eggs examinedhad been takenin theBritishIsles. (2) Methodsof examination All the eggshellsexaminedhad beencleanlyblownthrougha hole notexceeding7 mm in diameter.Eggs withlargerblow holes wererejectedbecause: (a) The weightof shelllost in drillingthe hole is no longeran insignificant proportion of thetotalweight. ofsignificant (b) Largerholesare an indicationofadvancedincubationand therefore withdrawalof calciumand decreasein shellweight. The lengthand breadthof the eggshells(i.e. externaldiametersof the long and short axes) were measuredto 0-01mm by verniercalipers.The air dryweightwas takento 0-01g on a Sauter-Toppananalyticalscale S.113 portableelectricalbalance. With such instruments these measurementscan be rapidlymade. More accurate measurements of size,i.e. volumeor surfacearea, are eitherimpracticalor slow to make Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds 112 fora numberof fora largenumberof eggs.Estimatesof surfacearea weredetermined sparrowhawkeggs by use of the formulaS = 2rBP/2(Romanoff& Romanoff1949); withtheseestimatesof surface values of L x B forthesameeggsgave a linearcorrelation judged valid to use L x B as a linearand simplyobtainedproduct area. It was therefore thepresentpaper. forcomparingeggshellareas throughout of eggshells (3) Characteristics ofeggshellindex(relativeweight)foreach ofthespeciesstudied The normalvariability maybe gaugedfromthestandarderrorsgivenin Table 5. It is usual to finda moderate in size, weightand eggshellindexwithinthesame clutch.However, degreeof variability the combinationof mean size, mean weight,mean eggshellindexand eggshellshape is eggshells ofperegrineand sparrowhawk Table 8. Measurements Shell thickness (p) Length (cm) Breadth (cm) Shell weight (g) 4-48 5.37 5-18 5-35 5-36 4.99 5-12 3.90 4K16 4-20 4-14 4-20 4-17 4.13 3.60* 4.79 4-56 3-96 4-45 3-86 4-20 241t 313 310 272 294 274 284 Recentshells 1 2 3 Mean 5-21 5-12 5-26 5-20 4-02 4.03 3.95 4 00 3 40t 2-74 3-04 3-06 265t 220 241 242 Sparrowhawk Old shells 1 2 Mean 3-81 3 95 3-88 3-19 3-28 3-24 1.70* 1-88 1-79 208t 244 226 Recentshells 1 2 3 4 Mean 4-64 4-06 3-86 4 03 4-15 3 40 3-22 3-10 3-20 3-23 1-32t 1-29 1-17 1-61 1-35 144t 161 165 213 171 Peregrine Old shells 1 2 3 4 5 6 Mean * Withshellmembranes. shellmembranes. t Without oftenremarkablyconstantforthe same femalein successiveyears,and mayeven be a and colour. ofa particularbirdthantheeggshellmarkings morereliableguideto identity ofindivithismeansofrecognition reinforce and colournevertheless markings Distinctive duals. Limitedobservationsin relationto orderof layingsuggestthatin wild birdsthereis not necessarilya decreasein eggshellweightor size betweensuccessiveeggsof a clutch; D. A. RATCLIFFE 113 thelargest orheaviest eggshell maybe anywhere between thefirst andlastegglaid.Nor was thereanyhintthatwildbirdslivelong,enough foradvancing age significantly to affect eggshell weightor size.Before1947,theoccasionallight(thin-shelled) or undersizedeggwasliableto be produced byanyspecies. In anyspecies, themeasured eggshell weight islargely a function ofeggshell areax thickness.Therehas beenno changein eggsizesince1946in anyofthespeciesexamined, so thattheobserved changesin eggshell areevidently due to changesin thickness. weight Theonlyotherpossibleexplanation wouldbethateggshell andnotthickness density has or thatbothhavebeeninvolved. changed, ofa sampleofperegrine Measurements and madebyProfessor sparrowhawk C. Tyler(seeTable8) haveestablished eggshells thatthe decreasein weighthas certainly involveda substantial decreasein thickness. Relative can therefore be expressed eggshell weight ofindividual independently variations in eggsizebythe index'= 'Eggshell Eggshell weight (mg) Length(mm)x breadth (mm) andthisparameter ofeggshell mayalsobe a measure thickness. TEST OF CHANGE IN EGG-SHELL INDEX BY M. D. MOUNTFORD The sequenceof observations of egg-shell indexis dividedintotwoperiods,earlyand late.The earlyperiodextends fromyear1 to yeark, and thelaterperiodfromk+ 1 to whichgivesthemaximum yeark+ 1.Yeark is takento be thatyear,from1946onwards, between difference themeanegg-shell index,XE oftheearlyperiodandthemeanXL ofthe lateperiod. As k is selectedto maximizethedifference betweentheearlyand lateperiods,an ofthestraightforward t-test ofdifference meansisinvalid. application between Theprobof themaximum abilitydistribution difference mustbe used as thebasis of thetest themeansofthetwoperiods.As k rangesoveritspossiblevalues,from1946 between letbl, b2 ... b, be thecorresponding onwards, valuesof XE-XL s[+ N-Nj whereS2 equalsthetotalsumofsquaresabouttheoverallmean,Nk thenumber ofeggs in theearlyperiod,andN- Nk thenumber inthelaterperiod.Let,Bbe themaximum of theb,.Thenifh is anyvalue Pr(fl>h) = ZPr(bj>h)-ZPr(b1>h, i= 1 16i<j<1 bj>h)+ZPr(bi>h, 1<i<j< k<1, bj>h, bk>h)-etc. (1) Mountford that (1969)demonstrates Pr(b'>h) = -( dN-2 hB(I N22) i (2) Pesticidesand egg breakagein birds 114 and forlargeN, whichis thecase fortheegg-shelldata, Pr(bi> h,bj> h) = 2N-(l i) exp) I (IN 42)(b2I-2Abibj+bj} (3) whereA is thecorrelation betweenbi and bj. Ifbi correspondsto an earlyperiodextending fromyear I to yeari, and bj to an earlyperiodextendingfromyear I to yearj (i<j), thenit is easilyseen that A (4 {(N- N)Nj Usingthisrelation,and theprobability functions (2) and (3), thefirstand secondsummationsin (1) can be evaluated,forgivenvalues of h, by numericalintegration. The thirdand highersummationsof (1) could be similarlyevaluated.However,the numericalintegration of thesemultipleintegralsis no easytask.In manyapplicationsof the relation(1), thethirdand highersummationsare of negligiblemagnitude.However, fortheegg-shellindexdata thevaluesof A are so nearto unitythattheseriesof summationsof (1) is onlyslowlyconvergent;thehighersummationscannotbe ignored. The difficulty ofevaluatingthemultipleintegralscan be bypassedby usinga simplified test; thistestis conservative in the sense thatit under-estimates the significance of the observeddifference in means.Let A*be theminimumofthevariousvaluesofA.It willbe seenfrom(4) thatifyearp is thelast yearbefore1947in whichobservationsweremade, and ifyearq is thefinalyearin whichobservationsweremade, then A* = 1(-N_ 1)l/ I t(N-Np)Nqg Let cl, c2 ... c, be normal variates,each with variance 1/(N-4) and with equal correlationsA*.It has been shownby Slepian (1962) that Pr(fiJ>h)= 1-Pr(b, <h, b2<h, . . . b1<h)<1-Pr(cj<h, c2<h,... c,<h) (5) The value of Pr(cl <h, c2<h, . . . cl<h) is obtainedby followingan argumentsimilar to thatof Kendall & Stuart(1958,p. 353). N- 4 Letk2 ,k*,2= 1 thenPr(c, < h,C2<h,... cl<h) 00 - -00 j' '1 ex2 [Xof ie-2dtjdx, whereii=kh+(1 I_)x (6) -00 This integralis easilycalculatednumerically forgivenvalues ofh and A*.The inequality (5) ensuresthe conservative natureof the test,i.e. if h (0.05) is thatvalue of h forwhich (6) equals 0 95, then Pr(f,>h(O005))<?0 05 The numericalworkingofthemethodis demonstrated by applyingit to theshagdata. In all thereare sixty-oneobservationsof whichthirty-eight weremade before1947 and elevenin 1967,thelastyearin whichrecordsare available.Hence N = 61, Nk = 38 and forthedifferent partitions Np1 = 50. The minimumvalue of thecorrelationcoefficient after1946is therefore = 0608 38 0I60289 \23x 50/ D. A. RATCLIFFE 115 Observations weremadeinfiveoftheyearssucceeding1946;henceI value of /3,themaximumof theb's, is p =E From (5) and (6) L tNk 5. The observed 063499 N- Nk) 00 e-x22F Pr(/>>0-63499)< 1- where,u= khx+ 1/2 = = 00 e?-t2 5 dt dx -00 X = 760764+1P23215x. The integral,evaluatedby Simpson'srule,is equal to 0-999996.Hence Pr(f > 0 63499)< 0 000004 The difference is therefore veryhighlysignificant. REFERENCES Kendall,M. G. & Stuart,A. (1958).TheAdvanced Theory ofStatistics. London. Mountford, M. D. (1969).A testofdifference betweenclusters. Int.Symp.statist.Ecol.,Yale. Slepian,D. (1962).The one-sidedbarrierproblemforGaussiannoise. Bell Syst.tech.J. 41, 463-502.
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz