Climate Change Impacts: Decision Making and Risk Management in Wisconsin’s Utility Industry September 22, 2010 9:00am-­3:30pm Even if we were to wave a magic wand today and stop all carbon, NOx, and SOx emissions, the effects of what is already present in the air would be felt for the next three decades. Indeed, it has been stated that the effects we see today are from the output of tailpipes and industrial smoke stacks from the 1970s. If this is the case, what could we do today to be prepared for tomorrow? This session will examine what we know today about the changing Wisconsin climate and will discuss what steps the energy industry may want to take to prepare for this new world. Our goal is to help the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) conduct its research and craft a final product that will be immediately useful to the industries that need to be forward thinking. 9:00 – Introductions 9:10 – Modeling Climate Change in Wisconsin •
Dan Vimont, UW-­‐Madison o Historical temperature and precipitation trends o Projected changes to Wisconsin's future climate o Using probability to assess risk • Open Discussion: What do these changes suggest a utility might want to engage in today? 10:40 – Break 11:00 – Impacts on the Energy Industry—Will any of these changes have implications for the energy industry? •
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Wind Energy Building Energy Management Transmission CASE STUDY: How will climate change affect wind energy? Tracey Holloway, UW-­‐Madison Results from an analysis of three wind farms and how climate change affected their output 12:00 – Lunch 1:00 – Decision Making Under Risks of Climate Change •
Commissioner Lauren Azar, Wisconsin Public Service Commission o
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2:15 – Break Should we consider new risk assessments when planning for future infrastructure? How will utilities and regulators prepare for climate change and emission restrictions? 2:30 – Discussion: Getting the Perspective of Utility Managers •
Panel Discussion with Utility Forecasters and Strategic Planners o
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What information do utility managers need regarding climate change? Will climate change adaptation be important for Wisconsin’s utility industry? How will utilities respond to climate change? How should customers? 3:30 – Adjourn Mitigation vs. Adaptation A key concept to understand for this program is the difference between climate change mitigation and adaptation. Most discussions about climate change, especially in the context of energy utilities, deal with mitigation, which is reducing the amount of greenhouse gases that reach the atmosphere from human activities. Adaptation, which is the focus of this workshop, is about managing the negative impacts that climate change will have on humans in the future. The flow chart below shows the chain of events that lead to climate change and where mitigation and adaptation fit in with respect to reducing the harmful impacts of climate change. Reproduced with permission from Gregory Nemet, University of Wisconsin-­‐Madison