Adapting to Climate Change in Wisconsin:
Implications for the Electric Sector
Dick Bratcher
Senior Principal Consultant
KEMA, Inc.
Presented at the workshop
Our Changing Climate and Adaptation:
The Energy Industry Perspective
Wisconsin Public Utilities Institute
22 Sep 2010
Our profile.
•  Incorporated in 1927, 83 years
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
of “experience you can trust”
Headquartered in Arnhem,
the Netherlands
Locations and representation in
over 20 countries
Customers on all continents
More than 1,600 people
Net sales in 2009: ! 256.2
million
Our Services & Customers.
Services
•  Consulting services, technical & operational
services
•  Inspections, assessments, testing &
certification
•  Research & innovation
Customers
•  Energy supply industry
•  Energy intensive users
•  (Power equipment) manufacturers
•  Transportation and public safety agencies
•  Financial institutions and development banks
•  Authorities and regulators
Covering the entire energy value chain.
Objectives for This Presentation
•  Provide some structure for thinking about the
issue of electric sector adaptation to climate
change
•  Stimulate discussion about what electricity
companies should be thinking about vis-à-vis
adapting to climate change
This Issue isn’t New
•  “Utilities' managers and planners require
preliminary estimates of the timing, form and
magnitudes of the potential impacts of climate
change as a starting point for understanding
and management of these risks.”
–  Potential Effects of Climate Change on Electric Utilities, Electric Power
Research Institute, 1995
Perceived Risk Levels
Climate Changes Your Business. KPMG. 2008
Risk Preparedness Framework (All Risks)
Climate Changes Your Business. KPMG. 2008
Preparing for Potential Impacts of Climate
Change is a Risk Management Issue
•  Risk
–  probability of an event occurring
x consequences of the event
•  Management Options
–  Mitigation
•  An action that can reduce probability (or severity)
of consequences
–  Adaptation
•  Given that a consequence occurs, an action that
reduces negative impact
Preparing for Potential Impacts of Climate
Change is a Risk Management Issue
•  Risk
–  probability of an event occurring
x consequences of the event
What climaterelated events
–  Mitigation
important
•  An action that can reduce probabilityare
(or severity)
of consequences
for electricity
companies?
–  Adaptation
•  Management Options
•  Given that a consequence occurs, an action that
reduces negative impact
Preparing for Potential Impacts of Climate
Change is a Risk Management Issue
•  Risk
–  probability of an event occurring
x consequences of the event
•  Management Options
–  Mitigation
How likely are
those events?
•  An action that can reduce probability (or severity)
of consequences
–  Adaptation
•  Given that a consequence occurs, an action that
reduces negative impact
Preparing for Potential Impacts of Climate
Change is a Risk Management Issue
•  Risk
–  probability of an event occurring
x consequences of the event
•  Management Options
–  Mitigation
•  An action that can reduce probability (or severity)
Are the consequences
of consequences
severe
enough
to
affect
–  Adaptation
today’s asset
management
•  Given that a consequence
occurs, an
action that
operational decisions?
reduces negative or
impact
Risk Management Framework
Climate
change
Problem/
Context
Evaluation
Risks
Engage
Stakeholders
Actions
Options
Decisions
Events?
Probabilities?
Consequences?
• Demand-side
• Supply-side
• Energy
delivery
• Integration
Graphic: Adapted from National Research Council. 1983. Risk assessment in the federal government. Managing
the process. National Academy Press, Washington,
Where are We Now?
Problem/
Context
Evaluation
Risks
Engage
Stakeholders
Actions
Options
Decisions
Graphic: National Research Council. 1983. Risk assessment in the federal government. Managing the process.
National Academy Press, Washington,
Where are We Now?
Problem/
Context
Evaluation
Risks
Engage
Stakeholders
Actions
Options
Decisions
Graphic: National Research Council. 1983. Risk assessment in the federal government. Managing the process.
National Academy Press, Washington,
Where are We Now?
Problem/
Context
Evaluation
Risks
Engage
Stakeholders
Actions
Options
Decisions
Graphic: National Research Council. 1983. Risk assessment in the federal government. Managing the process.
National Academy Press, Washington,
Where are We Now?
Problem/
Context
Evaluation
Risks
Engage
Stakeholders
Actions
Options
$
Decisions
Graphic: National Research Council. 1983. Risk assessment in the federal government. Managing the process.
National Academy Press, Washington,
Where are We Now?
Risks?
Benefits of Action?Problem/
Context
Costs?
Evaluation
Risks
Engage
Stakeholders
Actions
Options
$
Decisions
Graphic: National Research Council. 1983. Risk assessment in the federal government. Managing the process.
National Academy Press, Washington,
Risk Management Options
•  Mitigation
•  Adaptation
•  Reduction in scientific uncertainty
–  Define risks better
–  Define benefits of action better
•  Technology development
–  Reduce costs
Risks?
Benefits of Action?
Costs?
WICCI Projections –
Mid-21st Century Wisconsin Climate
•  Annual average warming by 4 - 9° F; most
pronounced during winter
•  More very hot days
•  Fewer very cold days
•  More winter precipitation
•  Summer precipitation +/-?
•  More intense precipitation events
WICCI Projections –
Mid-21st Century Wisconsin Climate
•  Event
–  Annual average warming by 4 - 9° F; most
pronounced during winter
•  Implications
–  Reduced heating loads
–  Increased cooling loads
•  Potential adaptive actions
–  Increase baseload generating capacity
WICCI Projections –
Mid-21st Century Wisconsin Climate
•  Event
–  More very hot days
•  Implications
–  Increased peak demand
–  T&D losses
•  Potential adaptive actions
–  Add peaking capacity
WICCI Projections –
Mid-21st Century Wisconsin Climate
•  Event
–  Fewer very cold days
•  Implications
–  Minor reduction in demand
•  Potential adaptive actions
–  Minor changes in dispatch
WICCI Projections –
Mid-21st Century Wisconsin Climate
•  Event
–  More winter precipitation
•  Implications
–  Increased hydro storage?
•  Potential adaptive actions
–  Increase hydro dispatch
WICCI Projections –
Mid-21st Century Wisconsin Climate
•  Event
–  Summer precipitation could increase or decrease
•  Implications
–  Depends on which direction
•  Increase may not have much impact
•  Severe decrease could affect power generation due
to availability and temperature of cooling water
•  Potential adaptive actions
–  Decrease reliance on once-through cooling
WICCI Projections –
Mid-21st Century Wisconsin Climate
•  Event
–  More intense precipitation events
•  Implications
–  Flooding of power system facilities
–  Wind damage to T&D facilities
•  Potential adaptive actions
–  Harden infrastructure
Indirect Events
•  Increased electrification in response to
reducing carbon emissions from other sectors
(e.g., transporation) leads to higher overall
demand for electricity
Electric Share of Primary Energy
Source: Electric Power Research Institute
Indirect Events
•  Increased electrification leads to higher
demand
•  Population shifts back to more northerly states
increase demand
End sheet
Thank you for your attention.
Breakout Sessions
•  Land and Vegetation
•  Water
•  Air Temperature
•  Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather
Events