!"#$%&'(!")&*+(!,!-$*.!/*(0+1!
!"#$%&'(&$)&*&'(&+$
2343!5&6%766(*8!90&:(1!;<##<=&18!>0(+!?(%('!
?(#6<*!@*6A'7'(!"(*'(0!B<0!C76'&$*&D$#$'1!&*.!
')(!>#<D&#!/*E$0<*%(*'!FCG>/H!
Known: Wind Energy is
Vulnerable to Climate change!
•  Wind responds to changes in temperature
and pressure – as the climate changes, so will
wind!
•  Observed: decreasing trend in SWS since the 1970s over !
- the U.S. [Pryor et al., 2009],!
-  Australia [McVicar et al., 2008]!
-  globally [McVicar et al., in prep]!
Where do climate predictions
come from?!
All widely cited predictions
(“projections”) of future climate are
produced by General Circulation
Models (GCMs) !
!- Based on the physical and chemical
processes – also used to track hurricanes,
predict weather!
!- No perfect GCM … about 26 total in
IPCC!
!- GCM-future depends on assumptions
about emissions and growth!
,-&$."#/$0&1'23$40&5$6&#27/8$$
@%&+(6!B0<%!2&*!L$%<*'!
M !N(68!D7'O!"<&06(!0(6<#7A<*!FP!
QRR!I%!S!QRR!I%!&'!T*(6'H!!
M !U0(6#<=!&*.!C&$#<0!VQRRQWX!
.(:0(&6(!<B!YZ[3\]!$*!C-C!&:0<66!
')(!^C!<E(0!')(!QY6'!:(*'7013!!
M !_&*6D&:)!&*.!"&1&*!VQRYRWX!
#$`#(!:)&*+(!$6!(Sa(:'(.!(S:(a'!$*!
9)&*I6!'<!23!J<0(*K!
67%%(0!&'!=$*.!6$'(6!$*!"&#$B<0*$&!!
M !C&$#<0!('!&#3!VQRRbWX!=$*.!.&'&!
B0<%!>"_6!$6!*<'!0(a0(6(*'&AE(!<B!
<D6(0E(.!C-C!&'!6a(:$T:!6$'(6!$*!
')(!c&:$T:!?<0')=(6'!0(+$<*!<B!')(!
^C!
@%a0<E$*+!<*!>"_6O!!
M !!;$+)(0!0(6<#7A<*!.&'&!$6!%<0(!&aa0<a0$&'(!
B<0!=$*.!(*(0+1!&*&#16$6!!
M !>"_!d!(S'0&!$*B<0%&A<*!e!)$+)(0!0(6!=$*.!
(6A%&'(6!!
9)&*I6!'<!23!
J<0(*K!,!23!
L$%<*'!
^6$*+!&!C'&A6A:&#!2<=*6:&#$*+!
&aa0<&:)O!
M !!C&$#<0!('!&#38!QRRbX!B7'70(!C-C!$*!')(!
?<0')=(6'(0*!^C!%&1!.(:0(&6(!D1!7a!'<![R]!$*!
')(!6a0$*+!&*.!67%%(0!!
M !C&$#<0!('!&#38!QRRRX!2(:0(&6(6!a0<f(:'(.!&'!
6$'(6!$*!"&#$B<0*$&!&*.!9(S&6!
M !90&*6a&0(*'8!D&6(.!$*!<D6(0E&A<*6O!D7'!=$')!
6<%(!B7*.&%(*'&#!#$%$'&A<*!B<0!B7'70(!
a0(.$:A<*33$
^6$*+!5(+$<*&#!"#$%&'(!_<.(#6O!
M !!gh(*!E$(=(.!&6!a0(B(0&D#(!$*!a0$*:$a&#!'<!
6'&A6A:&#!.<=*6:&#$*+!V(3+3!c01<0$#.$-9:8!
QRYRW3!!
M !>&00(&7.!&*.!i&#E(1!VQRRjWX!k!Y\]!
0&;2#-+#!$*!')(!%(&*!=$*.!6a((.!=$##!#$I(#1!
<::70!&#<*+!')(!=(6'!:<&6'!<B!C<7')!G%(0$:&!!
M !C:)&(l(0$#.$-9:!VQRRbWX!67++(6'!C-C!<E(0!
U0&K$#!=$##!.0&%&A:&##1!5#;90&#!D1!QYRR3!
M !c01<0$#.$-9:!VQRYRWX!:700(*'!$*'(0Z&**7&#!
E&0$&D$#$'1!k!a0<f(:'(.!QY6'!:3!:)&*+(6!<E(0!
?<0')!G%(0$:&$
i$+3!Y!&Z+X!Ca&A&#!a&`(0*6!$*!&**7&#!&E(0&+(!=$*.!6a((.!<E(0!"&#$B<0*$&!&*.!6700<7*.$*+!&0(&63!
g70!=<0I!q!i7'70(!-$*.!gE(0!"&#$B<0*$&O!!
&H!YjbRZQRRR!&E(0&+(!YRZ%!=$*.!6a((.!F%m6H!B0<%!')(!?G55!.&'&n!DH!6&%(!&6!F&H!(S:(a'!B<0!!
')(!?"/cZ2g/!.0$E(*!"5"_!B0<%!?G55"Gcn!:H!6&%(!&6!FDH!(S:(a'!B<0!5(+"_on!.H!6&%(!&6!FDH!
D7'!B<0!;5_on!(H!i7'70(!YRZ%!=$*.!6a((.!&*<%&#$(6!F%m6H8!0(a0(6(*A*+!B7'70(!FQR\YZQRpYH!
%$*76!)$6'<0$:&#!FYjbRZQRRRH!B0<%!')(!?G55"GcZ&0:)$E(.!0(67#'6!B<0!"5"_8!:&#:7#&'(.!&6!
B7'70(!6$%7#&A<*!%$*76!')(!7*:<*6'0&$*(.!)$6'<0$:!6$%7#&A<*n!FBH!6&%(!&6!F(H!(S:(a'!')(!
5(+"_on!F+H!6&%(!&6!F(H!(S:(a'!')(!;5_o3!!
i$+3!Y!&Z+X!Ca&A&#!a&`(0*6!$*!&**7&#!&E(0&+(!=$*.!6a((.!<E(0!"&#$B<0*$&!&*.!6700<7*.$*+!&0(&63!
&H!YjbRZQRRR!&E(0&+(!YRZ%!=$*.!6a((.!F%m6H!B0<%!')(!?G55!.&'&n!DH!6&%(!&6!F&H!(S:(a'!B<0!!
')(!?"/cZ2g/!.0$E(*!"5"_!B0<%!?G55"Gcn!:H!6&%(!&6!FDH!(S:(a'!B<0!5(+"_on!.H!6&%(!&6!FDH!
D7'!B<0!;5_on!(H!i7'70(!YRZ%!=$*.!6a((.!&*<%&#$(6!F%m6H8!0(a0(6(*A*+!B7'70(!FQR\YZQRpYH!
%$*76!)$6'<0$:&#!FYjbRZQRRRH!B0<%!')(!?G55"GcZ&0:)$E(.!0(67#'6!B<0!"5"_8!:&#:7#&'(.!&6!
B7'70(!6$%7#&A<*!%$*76!')(!7*:<*6'0&$*(.!)$6'<0$:!6$%7#&A<*n!FBH!6&%(!&6!F(H!(S:(a'!')(!
5(+"_on!F+H!6&%(!&6!F(H!(S:(a'!')(!;5_o3!!
-)&'r6!')(!D(6'!&aa0<&:)s!
M !!@.(&##18!76(!%7#Aa#(!%(')<.<#<+$(68!%7#Aa#(!
%<.(#6!OD7'8!5"_6!e!A%(mtt333!i(=!0(6(&0:)(06!76(!
&##!%(')<.6O!!
M !9&I(!)<%(!a<$*'X!U(!:&0(B7#!&D<7'!)$0$*+!<*(!
:<*67#'&*'!'<!+('!u')(!D(6'v!B7'70(!a0<f(:A<*!
M $G*!&#'(0*&AE(s!')(!?<0')!G%(0$:&*!5(+$<*&#!"#$%&'(!
")&*+(!G66(66%(*'!c0<+0&%!F?G5""GcH!
M $<2'+=$B0((8!a7D#$:#1!&E&$#&D#(8!)$Z0(68!%7#Aa#(!%<.(#6!
M $,'&+=$g*#1!uGQv8!\R!I%!S!\R!I%!%&1!*<'!D(!)$Z0(6!
(*<7+)!$
;<'!<l!')(!a0(66(633!!
i7'70(!FQR\YZQRpYH!&E(0&+(!&**7&#!
C-C!%$*76!:700(*'!FYjbRZQ<RRH!
E&#7(6!!
M C<%(!:<*6$6'(*'!'0(*.6!(%(0+(!
&:0<66!&##!%<.(#6!
M !c0<f(:'6!%<0(!0<D76'!B<0!6<%(!
&0(&6!')&*!<')(06!!
"<*:#76$<*6!
•  "<*:#76$<*6!&D<7'!B7'70(!=$*.!.<*r'!a<$*'!$*!&!:#(&0!
.$0(:A<*!
•  O!.(6a$'(!')(!76(!<B!%&*1!%<.(#6!&*.!&*&#16$6!
&aa0<&:)(6!
•  9)(!.$E(0+(*:(!)$+)#$+)'6!=)&'!=(!.<*r'!I*<=!
•  ^*#$I(!'(%a(0&'70(!&*.!a0(6670(!:)&*+(6!q!=)$:)!&0(!
0<D76'!q!=$*.!$6!%<0(!6(*6$AE(!'<!.('&$#68!$%a&:A*+!
.(:$6$<*Z%&I$*+!B<0!(*(0+1!a#&**$*+!&*.!$*E(6'%(*'!
,'&.-;.=$.-"'99'(-/>(0+;:#5?$