Rate Design by Objective 1 Bonbright’s Principles (Bonbright, 1961) 1. The related, practical attributes of simplicity, understandability, 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. public acceptability, and feasibility of application Freedom from controversies as to proper interpretation Effectiveness in yielding total revenue requirements under the fair return standard Revenue stability from year to year Stability of the rates themselves, with a minimum of unexpected changes seriously adverse to existing customers Fairness of the specific rates in the approportionment of total costs of service among the different customers Avoidance of undue discrimination in rate relationships Efficiency of the rate classes and rate blocks in discouraging wasteful use of service while promoting all justified types and amounts of use: a. In the control of the total amounts of service supplied by the company, and, b. In the control of the relative uses of alternative types of service 2 Bonbright’s Principles – Summary and PURPA Additions Bonbright’s principles are often summarized as three objectives ♦ Revenue requirement ♦ Fair apportionment of production costs among customers ♦ Optimal efficiency The Public Utility Regulatory Policy Act of 1978 (PURPA) added: ♦ Conservation of energy by users ♦ Efficient use of facilities and resources by utilities ♦ Equitable rates to consumers No doubt the next energy legislation will add to these 3 Rate Design by Objective Rate Design by Objective Process 1. Determine rate design goals or objectives 2. Develop metrics, preferably quantative, for each goal 3. Design the rate, possibly with variants 4. Calculate a scorecard for the rate based on the metrics 5. Tweak the rate(s) and recalculate the scorecard iterating until you're satisfied Without specifying how the goals are to be measured, the goals are only “Mom and apple pie” “Far better an approximate answer to the right question, which is often vague, than an exact answer to the wrong question, which can always be made precise.” John W. Tukey 4 Example – Residential Flat Rate Utility has received indications from the PUC (hint, hint, wink, wink, nudge, nudge) that it should reconsider its current flat residential rate. The utility has decided upon the following objectives ♦ Efficiency in use ♦ Revenue sufficiency ♦ Rate continuity ♦ Equity There are lots of rate options to consider 5 Rate Options – Demand Response Two basic flavors ♦ Reliability-triggered • Direct load control (DLC): customer end-uses are directly controlled by the utility and are shut down or moved to lower consumption • Interruptible tariffs: customers agree to reduce consumption to a pre-specified level, or pre-specified amount, in return for an incentive payment ♦ Price-triggered • Time-of-use rate (TOU): The rate is time-varying to correlate to system peak, but the prices are static and not related to real-time system needs • Dynamic pricing: The rate is time-varying and adjusted in (near) real-time to address current system needs 6 The Critical-Peak Pricing (CPP) Rate Illustrative CPP Rate for Residential Class - Summer All-In Rates $1.40 Illustrative CPP Rate for Residential Class - Winter All-In Rates $1.40 Critical Peak Rate = 123.4 cents $1.00 $1.00 All-In Rate ($/kWh) $1.20 All-In Rate ($/kWh) $1.20 $0.80 $0.80 $0.60 $0.60 $0.40 $0.40 Off Peak Rate = 11.4 cents $0.20 Off Peak Rate = 11.4 cents $0.20 Existing Rate = 12.6 cents $0.00 Existing Rate = 12.6 cents $0.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 ♦ Customers get a discount on all hours except a few critical hours of the year ♦ On a few critical days, customers pay a substantially higher price equal to the cost of capacity plus the average critical peak LMP ♦ Customers are notified of critical days in advance 7 A CPP Rate Combined with a Time-of-Use (TOU) Rate Illustrative CPP/TOU Rate for Residential Class - Summer All-In Rates $1.40 Illustrative CPP/TOU Rate for Residential Class - Winter All-In Rates $1.40 Critical Peak Rate = 123.4 cents $1.00 $1.00 All-In Rate ($/kWh) $1.20 All-In Rate ($/kWh) $1.20 $0.80 $0.80 $0.60 $0.60 Peak Rate = 20.5 cents Off Peak Rate = 10.2 cents $0.40 $0.20 Peak Rate = 20.5 cents Off Peak Rate = 10.2 cents $0.40 $0.20 Existing Rate = 12.6 cents $0.00 Existing Rate = 12.6 cents $0.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 ♦ Customers are on a mild TOU rate on all non-critical days ♦ On critical days, they pay a much higher price during the critical hours 8 The Peak-Time Rebate (PTR) is a Mirror Image of the CPP Illustrative PTR Rate for Residential Class - Summer All-In Rates $1.40 $1.00 $1.00 $0.60 $0.60 All-In Rate ($/kWh) All-In Rate ($/kWh) $1.40 Existing Rate = 12.6 cents $0.20 -$0.20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Illustrative PTR Rate for Residential Class - Winter All-In Rates 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 -$0.20 0 -$0.60 Existing Rate = 12.6 cents $0.20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 -$0.60 -$1.00 -$1.00 Peak Rebate = -110.8 cents -$1.40 -$1.40 ♦ Customers pay the default rate for all kWh used; if they make no changes in their usage they continue to pay the default rate with no extra costs (“carrot only” approach) ♦ On critical days customers can earn a rebate reductions in usage below an estimate of what they otherwise would have consumed (their “baseline”) ♦ Baseline calculations are an important component of PTR rates 9 ComEd’s VLR Method ComEd’s Voluntary Load Reduction (VLR) program for C&I customers uses the following baseline calculation method: 1. Identify five non-event non-holiday weekdays preceding an event day 2. Calculate a baseline hourly load profile by averaging the hourly loads on these five identified days 10 California Public Utility Commission’s Baseline Calculation Method California Public Utility Commission’s (CPUC) baseline calculation method (10/10 method) is outlined below: 1. Identify ten non-event non-holiday weekdays preceding an event day 2. Calculate an interim hourly load profile by averaging the hourly loads on these ten identified days 3. Multiply the interim profile by 120% to account for weather adjustment 11 The Price Risk-Reward Trade-Off for Electric Rates Potential Reward Reward (Discount (Discount from from Flat Flat Rate) Rate) Less Risk, Lower Reward More Risk, Higher Reward Increasing Reward 10% RTP 5% VPP PTR CPP Super Peak TOU TOU Seasonal Rate Inclining Block Rate Flat Rate 0.5 Increasing Risk 12 1 Risk (Variance in Price) The Best-Designed Pilots Allow Us to Infer the “Arc of Price Responsiveness” with Much Clarity Pilot Results by Peak to Off-Peak Ratio Price-Only Results 40% Peak Reduction 35% 30% Best-Fit Curve 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Peak to Off-Peak Ratio 13 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 In Most Cases, the Inclusion of Enabling Technology Boosts Price Responsiveness Pilot Results by Peak to Off-Peak Ratio Results with Enabling Technology 40% Technology Curve Peak Reduction 35% 30% Price-Only Curve 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Peak to Off-Peak Ratio 14 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Utility’s Choice – Inclining Block Rate Utility decides to try an inclining block rate ♦ At this point in time, does not want to make the investment in meters required for any of the dynamic pricing rates ♦ Is in process of ‘smartening’ up its distribution system, so it could consider doing ‘smart meters’ in the future 15 Designing an Inclining Block Rate is Both an Art and a Science Some aspects of IBR design are more “science” than “art” ♦ Aligning prices with system costs Other aspects require subjective judgment ♦ Establishing the number of tiers ♦ Determining cutoff points 16 There Are Three Critical Decisions to be Made When Designing an Inclining Block Rate Illustration of Inclining Block Rate Critical Decision #1: How many tiers? Cents/kWh 20 15 Critical Decision #3: How to set prices? 10 5 Critical Decision #2: Tier cutoff? 0 0 200 400 600 Monthly Usage (kWh) 17 800 1000 Decision #1: How Many Tiers? The simplest IBR has two tiers ♦ Provides simplicity and understandability for the customer ♦ Reduces consumer-related issues for the utility A three-tiered rate is another approach ♦ Provides customers with a larger conservation incentive ♦ Still fairly easy to explain Some IBRs include as many as five tiers ♦ Most granular reflection of increasing costs ♦ In theory, the concept could be extended to a “straight line” 18 Decision #2: How to Establish the Cut-off Point Between Tiers? Lifeline ♦ First tier represents monthly usage level necessary to satisfy a basic standard of living Baseload generation ♦ First tier represents share of class usage that is met through baseload generation Average usage ♦ First tier represents average customer’s monthly usage Even allocation ♦ Cutoffs are set such that class usage is allocated evenly within the tiers Energy efficiency target ♦ For example, establish cutoff at 80% of previous year’s class usage Function of individual customer usage ♦ Specify tiers as percentage of usage on an individual customer basis 19 Decision #3: How to Set the Prices? Set based on system costs ♦ Final tier as peak marginal energy cost ♦ First tier as off-peak marginal cost Set based on policy goals ♦ Reverse-engineer the target level of customer response and price accordingly ♦ Build rate increase only into outer tiers ♦ Satisfy mandated rate caps (e.g., California) ♦ Constrain price range to limit distribution of bill changes The prices could be based on a combination of these options 20 There Are Other Important Decisions as Well Other decisions for consideration include ♦ Seasonality ♦ Which charges to vary by usage ♦ Which customer classes should be eligible ♦ How to define revenue neutrality Ultimately, all of the rate design considerations are interrelated and dependent upon each other 21 Final Design Two alternatives – two and three tiered IBR Two-tiered ♦ Maintains same customer charge ♦ Sets upper tier at 80% of marginal costs, but reduces first tier so as to maintain same revenue requirement collection Three tiered ♦ Reduces customer charge by $2.00/month ♦ Highest tier at full peak marginal costs, remaining tiers set at decreasing percentage of marginal costs As utility is in an RTO, uses both current and forward curve LMPs (two years) as basis for marginal costs 22 Alternative Rate Options Alternatives Tier II Existing Customer charge ($/month) Energy charge (cents/kWh) 0-800 kWh 801 - 1600 kWh 1601+ Tier III $7.00 $7.00 $5.00 7.0 6 8 6.0 7.5 10 Class Billing Data Usage Block Billing Units Customers MWh 0 - 800 kWh/month 801 - 1,600 kWh/month 1,601+ 300,000 200,000 100,000 525,000 350,000 175,000 TOTAL 600,000 1,050,000 23 Example – Measuring Efficiency Rate was based on marginal costs, so that is its first metric ♦ Tier rate expressed as a %-age of marginal costs Cost-effectiveness of a customer efficiency option ♦ Compare the cost-effectiveness of an efficiency option for the customer that is cost-effective for the utility ♦ Option is cost-effective in that the energy or demand savings exceeds the cost of option Leave it to you to decide the appropriate cost-effectiveness test. 24 Example – Efficiency Energy Efficiency Program Payback Assumptions Efficiency Incentive Tail Block as % Marginal Cost Reduction in Payback Period 800 kWh or less Customer 800-1600 kWh Customer 1600 + kWh Customer Inclining Rate - Two Tiers Inclining Rate - Three Tiers 80% 100% -10% 4% 12% -32% 1% 28% 25 Example – Revenue Sufficiency Apply class billing determinants to the rate change to derive total class revenues ♦ The initial calculation on the next slide is performed assuming no change in use • Could use long run price elasticity estimate used previously • Alternatively, could also look at shorter run impacts by using a short-run price elasticity 26 Example – Revenue Sufficiency, No Usage Change Rate Tier II Tier III $4,200 $3,000 Below 800 kWh/month $31,500 $31,500 800 - 1,600 kWh/month $28,000 $26,250 Above 1,600 kWh/month $14,000 $17,500 $77,700 $78,250 14% 42% Annual revenues ($000s) Customer charge TOTAL Change in percent revenue recovered in tail block 27 Example – Rate Continuity Calculate the percentage change in bills at various usage levels ♦ One issue that may need to be accounted for is the distribution of bills by number of customers ♦ This assessment may also need to account for weather variations through the year • Air conditioning and space heating loads 28 Example – Rate Continuity – Monthly Bill Charge Use (kWh/month) 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 2,400 2,800 3,200 Tier II -13% -3% 3% 6% 8% 9% 9% 10% 29 Tier III -44% -37% -22% -15% 25% 28% 30% 32% Rate Scorecard Rate Scorecard Inclining Rate - Two Tiers Inclining Rate - Three Tiers 80% 100% -10% 4% 12% -32% 1% 28% 14% 42% -13% -3% 3% 6% 8% 9% 9% 10% -44% -37% -22% -15% 25% 28% 30% 32% 1% 11% Goal 1 - Efficiency Incentive Tail Block as % Marginal Cost Reduction in Payback Period 800 kWh or less Customer 800-1600 kWh Customer 1600 + kWh Customer Goal 2 - Revenue Sufficiency Change in percent revenue recovered in tail block Goal 3 - Rate Continuity Percentage change in bill by use level Monthly usage (kWh) 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 Goal 4 - Equity Percentage change in average bill for customers on bill assistance 30
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