Housing and Plug Load Trends:
Updates from the Residential Energy
Consumption Survey
Bill McNary
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Large Public Power Council Rate Committee Meeting
Madison, Wisconsin
May 22, 2013
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis
www.eia.gov
Agenda
I.
RECS Overview
II.
2009 RECS Data and Trends: Tables and Highlights
III. RECS Data Availability and Micro Data
IV. Feedback to EIA
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
2
RECS History
• The only comprehensive source of national-level data on
energy related characteristics and consumption for occupied
U.S. homes.
– Produces estimates for U.S., Census Regions and Divisions, States, and
groups of States.
• The only survey in EIA that collects household data.
• First conducted in 1978. Periodic and is now conducted
every 4 years.
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
3
2009 RECS Data Collection
Household Interviews
•12,083 completes
•3X normal RECS
•Voluntary
•Primary, occupied housing units
•In-person interviews (CAPI)
•Collected Feb – July ’10
•Response rate: 80%
Energy Supplier Surveys
Rental
Agent
Survey
•4 mandatory surveys
•Electricity, Natural Gas, LPG, Fuel Oil
•For electricity, site energy is reported
•Data collected primarily online
•20 months of billing/delivery data requested
•Collected Jan – Aug ’11
•Response rate: 90%+
Housing Unit
Measurement
Weather
Data
(NCDC)
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
Census
Geography
4
2009 RECS Timeline
2009
2010
2011
2012
7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Household Survey
Sample Design and Listing
X X X X X X X
Data Collection
X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X
Editing
Imputation and Weighting
X X X X X X X X X
Characteristics Dissemination
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Energy Supplier Surveys (ESS)
Pre-Survey Activities
Data Collection
Editing
Consumption and Expenditures (C&E) Estimates
Annualization/Imputation
End-Use Modeling
C&E Dissemination
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X
5
Characteristics and supplier data feed into end-use consumption
and expenditure models
2009 fuel
consumption
(MBtu)
Space
Heating
A/C
Water
Heating
Appl/
Elec/
Light
SP Heat
A/C
W Heat
Appl/Elec/
Light
EL
X
X
X
X
NG
X
X
X
LPG
X
X
X
FO
X
X
KE
X
FUEL MODEL
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
6
RECS captures WHAT devices consume energy, HOW the
household consumes them, and HOW MUCH energy they
consume
• Space Heating (Main and Secondary)
• Air-Conditioning (Central and Room)
• Water Heating
• Appliances (Kitchen, Clothes Washing, etc)
• Electronics (TVs, Set-top Boxes, PCs, etc)
• Lighting and other uses
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
7
Coverage for 2009 RECS expanded to include estimates for
16 states
Red: Historical
RECS states (4)
Blue: Additional
states for 2009
RECS (12)
Estimates produced
for groups of
remaining states
Ex: NC/SC
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
8
EIA produced two main sets of 2009 RECS data tables
1. Household Characteristics: counts of households using
fuels, equipment, etc.; behavioral characteristics; square
footage
2. Consumption and Expenditures: totals and averages by fuel
and end uses
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
9
Total site consumption relatively flat over last 30 years
Total energy consumption in homes, 1980-2009
quadrillion Btu
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
10
Average site consumption trends downward
Average energy consumption per home
million Btu per housing unit
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
11
2009 RECS highlighted by more state-level data
Average home energy consumption for selected states, 2009
million Btu per housing unit
140
120
Northeast
Midwest
West
South
national average = 89.6
100
80
60
40
20
0
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
12
Shares of energy end uses have changed significantly
Total energy use in homes, 1993 and 2009
quadrillion Btu and percent
Refrigerators
0.46 (5%)
Appliances and
Electronics 1.94
(19%)
Total
10.01
Space Heating
5.32 (53%)
Refrigerators
0.48 (5%)
Appliances and
Electronics 3.04
(30%)
Total
10.18
Space Heating
4.23 (42%)
Water Heating
1.83 (18%)
Water Heating
1.80 (18%)
Air Conditioning
0.46 (5%)
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
Air Conditioning
0.64 (6%)
13
As total household consumption has remained relatively
constant, the shares by fuel have changed substantially
Household energy use, 1980
quadrillion Btu and percent (site energy)
Propane
0.35 (4%)
Propane
0.49 (5%)
Household energy use, 2009
quadrillion Btu and percent (site energy)
Fuel Oil and
Kerosene
0.60 (6%)
Fuel Oil and
Kerosene
1.52 (16%)
Electricity
2.48 (27%)
Electricity
4.39 (43%)
Total
10.18
QBtu
Total
9.32
QBtu
Natural Gas
4.69 (46%)
Natural Gas
4.97 (53%)
Total households: 81.6 million
Bill McNary , May 22, 2013
Total households: 113.6 million
14
Electricity consumption has increased dramatically, but the
share by end-use has been more consistent
Household electricity use, 1980
quadrillion Btu and percent (site energy)
Household electricity use, 2005
quadrillion Btu and percent (site energy)
Space
Heating
0.28
(6%)
Space
Heating
0.27 (11%)
Total
2.48
QBtu
Appl. and
Elec.
1.54 (62%)
Bill McNary , May 22, 2013
AC
0.36
(15%)
Water
Heating
0.30
(12%)
AC
0.88 (20%)
Total
4.35
QBtu
Appliances
and
Electronics
2.77 (64%)
Water
Heating
0.42 (10%)
15
Increased saturation of appliances
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
16
…as well as increased number of energy consuming devices
Number of electronic devices, 2009
million households
70.0
57.9
60.0
50.0
46.9
37.5
40.0
30.0
36.4
27.4
26.6
24.2
24.3
20.0
14.2
9.7
10.0
11.4
9.5
7.9
3.6
1.5
2.0
0.0
0
1
2
3
Televisions
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
4
5+
0
1
2
3
Computers
4
5+
0
1 to 3 4 to 8
9+
Rechargeable
electronic devices
17
Number of homes with 2 or more refrigerators is approaching
30% in the Midwest
Homes with 2+ refrigerators, selected survey years
Percent of homes
40%
30%
West
South
20%
Midwest
Northeast
10%
0%
RECS 1984
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
RECS 1997
RECS 2009
18
2nd Refrigerators are more likely to be older and less efficient
than main refrigerators
Age of refrigerators, 2009
Percent of homes
40%
Main Refrigerator
30%
2nd Refrigerator
20%
10%
0%
Less than 2 2 to 4 Years 5 to 9 Years
Years
10 to 14
Years
15 to 19
Years
20 Years or
More
Age of refrigerator
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
19
Steady rise in homes with A/C in all regions of the U.S. over
last 30 years
Homes using A/C, RECS survey years
Percent of homes
100%
80%
60%
South
Midwest
Northeast
West
40%
20%
0%
Survey Year
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
20
2009 RECS data show newer homes consume more energy on
average than older homes
Average household site energy consumption
by end use, 2009
MMBtu per household
100
80
Homes built before 2000
60
Homes built 2000-2009
40
20
0
Total
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
Space Heating
Water Heating
Air
Conditioning
Appliances,
Electronics,
Lighting
21
2009 RECS data show newer homes have more central air
conditioning
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
22
2009 RECS data show newer homes have more appliances and
electronics
percent of households
100%
Homes built before 2000
75%
Homes built 2000-2009
50%
25%
0%
Dishwasher
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
Clothes
Washer
Clothes Dryer
2 or more
refrigerators
2 or more 3 or more TVs
computers
23
Homes are also larger across the country
3,000
2,400
1970s
1,800
1980s
1990s
1,200
2000s
600
0
US
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
24
New homes do have more efficient windows
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
25
and respondents in newer homes say their homes are better
insulated
How well is your home insulated?, 2009
Percent of homes
100%
Well or Adequately Insulated
80%
60%
40%
Poorly Insulated or No Insulation
20%
0%
Before 1940
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
Year of Construction
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
26
RECS data availability
• Tables are posted on the EIA website at
http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/data/2009
• Housing Characteristics tables - March 2011.
• Square Footage tables - April 2012.
• Summary Consumption & Expenditures tables - June 2012.
• Fuel Consumption & Expenditures tables - July 2012.
• Detailed end-use tables – January 2013.
• Final microdata file – January 2013.
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
27
Public-use microdata
• Public use microdata is available at
http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/data/2009/#microdata
• For each of the 12,083 RECS households, hundreds of
variables are included
• Date is available as both a SAS file and as a .csv
• The full 2009 data file includes characteristics, consumption,
and expenditures data.
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
28
User-friendly updates to RECS microdata
• Common coding for “not-applicable” responses (-2)
• Consistent coding for derived variables makes it easier to filter subpopulations
– e.g., Natural Gas, Single-Family Homes, WI
• USENG = 1…TYPEHUQ = (2,3)…ReportableDomain = 9
• Question wording revised to capture equipment and fuel
“users”…as well as “have, but don’t use” for heating and
cooling
• More descriptive variable labels and response codes
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
29
How to use RECS microdata
• RECS website includes layout file, response code labels, and
questionnaire.
• For most analysis, NWEIGHT should be used. It is the
sampling weight of each individual RECS household.
– Sum of NWEIGHT values is 113.6 million, the total number of U.S. households.
– A household with NWEIGHT of 10,000 represents itself and 9,999 others like it.
• Ex: Average consumption of all homes built before 2000.
– In Excel, filter YEARMADERANGE to values 1 through 6. There are 10,425
RECS households that meet this description.
– Multiply the values for TOTALBTU (Column AHX listed in thousands) and
NWEIGHT (Column F) for each filtered row. Divide the total by the sum of the
NWEIGHT column for the average consumption. Total is 89.3 million BTU.
• Caution, there is sampling variation!
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
30
Potential Changes to RECS Supplier Data
Next RECS should be 2014. Interested in whether we could
collect:
• Smart Meter data – CBECS may ask for data as part of the
supplier survey. Main issue is how it would be used.
• Kilowatt data – only collect monthly kWh data currently.
• Pricing data – we get monthly data now but would like to get
variable pricing data if available.
• Breaks in service.
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
31
RECS Website and Contact Info
RECS homepage
http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/
RECS data release notification
http://www.eia.gov/listserv_signup.html
Chip Berry, RECS Survey Manager
202.586.5543
[email protected]
Bill McNary
202.586.6828
[email protected]
Danni Mayclin
202.586.7921
[email protected]
Bill McNary, May 22, 2013
32
Questions and Discussion
Bill McNary , May 22, 2013
33