MISO Planning Process
May 31, 2013
MISO Planning Objectives
Fundamental
Goal
The development of a comprehensive expansion plan that meets
reliability needs, policy needs, and economic needs
•
•
MISO
Board of
Directors
Planning
Principles
•
•
•
•
Make the benefits of an economically efficient energy market available to
customers by identifying transmission projects which provide access to
electricity at the lowest total electric system cost
Provide a transmission infrastructure that meets all applicable NERC
and Transmission Owner planning criteria and safeguards local and
regional reliability through identification of transmission projects to meet
those needs
Support state and federal energy policy requirements by planning for
access to a changing resource mix
Provide an appropriate cost allocation mechanism that ensures that
costs of transmission projects are allocated in a manner roughly
commensurate with the projected benefits of those projects
Analyze system scenarios and make the results available to state and
federal energy policy makers and other stakeholders to provide context
and to inform choices
Coordinate transmission planning with neighboring planning regions to
seek more efficient and cost-effective solutions
2
Focus is on minimizing the total cost of energy
delivered to consumers
High Capacity Cost
Low Transmission Cost
High Transmission Cost
Low Capacity Cost
Goal
Minimum Total Cost:
Energy, Capacity and
Transmission
Total
Cost
($)
H
Capacity Cost
L
L
Transmission Cost
H
3
Conditions precedent for increased
transmission build-out
Regional tariff
that matches
who benefits
with who pays
over time
Robust
business
case for
plan
Increased
regional
energy
policy
consensus
Cost recovery
mechanisms
that reduce
financial risk
4
Amalgamation of multiple techniques needed
to address increased scope and complexity
Reliability
Planning
• Powerflow
Strategic
Planning
• Scenario analysis
MISO
Transmission
Planning
Decision
Analysis
• Weighted average
• Probabilistic
Energy
Planning
• Congestion relief
• Reserve margin
requirements
Capacity
Planning
• Resource
forecasting
5
Planning Assessments
Multi Value
Assessment
• Is there a regional solution which
alleviates congestion on many points in
the system?
• How does this solution help with
reliability?
• Are the benefits sufficiently regionally
distributed?
Economic
Assessment
• Is there a single upgrade solution to solve
the congestion that provides more benefits
than costs over the first 20 years of its
life?
• Is there a solution which, when combined
with other economic projects into a
portfolio, will solve the congestion and
provide economic value?
Reliability
Assessment
• Is there a NERC reliability violation
associated with the congestion?
• Is there a violation of the local
Transmission Owner’s planning criteria?
• What are the differences in the planning
and operational models that are driving
the congestion?
6
Planning Roles
Top Down Planning
(MISO driven)
Access
Planning*
(Customer
driven,
MISO led)
MISO ValueBased
Planning
Approach
Policy
Assessment
(Inform and
comply)
Bottom Up Planning
(Locally driven)
7
*Access Planning includes both the long term Transmission
Service Queue and the Generator Interconnection Queue.
Stakeholder and Regulatory Involvement
8
MISO Value Based Planning
•
STEP 1: MULTI-FUTURE
REGIONAL RESOURCE
FORECASTING
STEP 7: COST ALLOCATION
ANALYSIS
STEP 2: SITE-GENERATION
AND PLACE IN POWERFLOW
MODEL
STEP 6: EVALUATE
CONCEPTUAL TRANSMISSION
FOR RELIABILITY
STEP 3: DESIGN CONCEPTUAL
TRANSMISSION OVERLAYS BY
FUTURE IF NECESSARY
STEP 4: TEST CONCEPTUAL
TRANSMISSION FOR
ROBUSTNESS
STEP 5: CONSOLIDATE &
SEQUENCE TRANSMISSION
PLANS
Objective of value based
planning is to develop the
most robust plan under a
variety of scenarios – not
the least-cost plan under a
single scenario
– The “best” transmission
plan may be different in
each policy-based future
scenario
– The transmission plan
that is the best-fit (most
robust) against all these
scenarios should offer the
most future value in
supporting the future
resource mix
9
Futures development and regional resource
forecasting
•
•
•
Regional resource forecasting is needed to obtain multiple long term views of
theoretical supply and demand resource availability given different policy and
economic drivers
Future scenarios and underlying assumptions are developed collaboratively
with stakeholders through the Planning Advisory Committee
The goal is a range of Futures linked to likely real-life scenarios that provides
an envelope of outcomes that are significantly broad, rather than a single
expected forecast
Narrow and less useful
Broad and more useful
MW
MW
Years
Years
10
Economic Model Inputs
Policy
Impacts
Emissions
Information
Fuel Price
Forecasts
Generator
Information
Transmission
Information
Economic
Models
Demand &
Energy
Growth Rates
11
Design conceptual transmission by Future,
if necessary…
Native Voltage Transmission Overlay Strategy
765 kV Transmission Overlay Strategy
12
Native Voltage with DC Transmission Overlay Strategy
Test conceptual transmission for robustness…
Summary of prior study inputs into Multi Value Project (MVP) Portfolio
13
Consolidate and sequence transmission
plans…
Multi Value Project (MVP) Portfolio
14
Evaluate conceptual transmission for
reliability…
Reliability assessment using a suite of tests to
determine system performance:
•
•
•
•
Steady-state analysis
Voltage stability
Short-circuit stability
Dynamic/transient stability assessments
For any identified reliability issues, both MISO and
TOs develop plans to ensure system reliability with
the addition of proposed transmission
15
Cost allocation analysis…
Allocation Category
Driver(s)
Allocation to Beneficiaries
Participant Funded (“Other”)
Transmission Owner identified
project that does not qualify for other
cost allocation mechanisms.
Paid by requestor (local zone)
Transmission Delivery
Service Project
Transmission Service Request
Generally paid for by Transmission Customer;
Transmission Owner can elect to roll-in into local
zone rates
Generation Interconnection
Project
Interconnection Request
Primarily paid for by requestor; 345 kV and
above 10% postage stamp to load
Baseline Reliability Project
NERC Reliability Criteria
100% allocated to local Pricing Zone
Market Efficiency Project
Reduce market congestion when
benefits are 1.25 times in excess of
cost
Distributed to Local Resource Zones
commensurate with expected benefit; 345 kV and
above 20% postage stamp to load
Multi Value Project
Address energy policy laws and/or
provide widespread benefits across
footprint
100% postage stamp to load
16