OMS/MISO
Resource Adequacy
Survey Update
January 31, 2014
The generation fleet in MISO is being affected by
multiple phases of environmental regulations
PHASE 1
Nature of
Regulation
Compliance
Dates
Impacts
PHASE 2
Mercury and air toxins Carbon regulations
(GHG)
2015 / 2016
• Significant coal
retirements
2016 implementation
PHASE 3
Water regulations
(316b)
PHASE 4
???
To be determined
• June 2014 rule release
• Continued pressures
• Outage coordination
on reserve margins
challenges
• Increased dependence
• Shrinking reserve
on natural gas
margins around MISO
• Growing dependence
on natural gas
1
OMS / MISO Resource Adequacy Survey Results
- As of January 1, 2014
Central & North Regions
In GW
108.2
Unclaimed
Merchant
Resources
99.7
8.2
8.5
13.9
Reserves
South Region
In GW
40.9
Claimed
Resources
91.5
94.3
5.5
35.4
4.6 Reserves
Demand
30.8 Demand
2016
Resources
2016 Resource
Requirement
Expected
Shortfall
2016
Resources
2016 Resource
Requirement
Expected
Surplus
Notes: Current system conditions (including capacity trapped both inter- and intra-regionally) would limit
capacity available for transfer from the South Region – currently estimated at 1.5 to 3.0 GW.
2
OMS / MISO Resource Adequacy Survey Results
- As of January 31, 2014
Central & North Regions
Unclaimed
Merchant
Resources
106.4
6.6
In GW
108.4
14.7
2.0
Reserves
South Region
In GW
Claimed
Resources
40.4
99.8
2016
Resources
93.7
Demand
2016 Resource
Requirement
Expected
Shortfall
2016
Resources
5.5
34.9
4.0
Reserves
30.9
Demand
2016 Resource
Requirement
Expected
Surplus
Notes: Current system conditions (including capacity trapped both inter- and intra-regionally) would limit
capacity available for transfer from the South Region – currently estimated at 1.5 to 3.0 GW.
3
Two primary drivers – decreases in demand forecast and
increases in resources – have reduced the North / Central
Regions 2016 projected shortfall to 2.0 GW
• Demand Reductions
– Current survey shows an aggregated 2016 demand of 93.7 GW
• This is a -0.75% annual growth rate for the next three years
• MISO’s weather-adjusted annualized growth rate is 1.5% since 2009
(would imply a 2016 load of 100.2 GW)
• The annual growth rate in the most recent Long Term Reliability
Assessment is 0.8% (would imply a 2016 load of 98.1 GW)
• Resource Increases
– 3.2 GW of previously uncounted resources are included
– 3.5 GW of generators were reclassified from retirement / low confidence
to high confidence - Investment and approvals are required to firm up
these resources
•
“Unclaimed” Merchant Generation
•
Survey includes 6.6 GW of merchant generation that is not currently
contracted to serve load
4
Results Reconciliation – January 1st to January 31st
Central & North Regions
In GW
8.5
3.2
3.5
Increase
In Reported
Resources
0.6
0.8
2.0
Retirement
Reconciliation
Expected
Shortfall
1/1/14
Reduced
Demand
Forecast
Increase
In
Reserve
Requirement
Expected
Shortfall
1/31/14
5
OMS / MISO Resource Adequacy Survey Results
Zone 1 (All or Parts of MN, MT, ND, SD and WI)
- As of January 31, 2014
Zone 1
In GW
Unclaimed
Merchant
Resources
Claimed
Resources
20.3
0.3
20.0
2016
Resources
1.6
18.6
2.1
Reserves
16.5
Demand
Observations
• Resources
– Reported retirements 210 MW
less than in Long Term Reliability
Assessment
– 99% of resources in zone reported
as high confidence for 2016
• Demand
– Reported demand 600 MW less
than in Long Term Reliability
Assessment
2016 Resource
Requirement
Expected
Surplus
6
OMS / MISO Resource Adequacy Survey Results
Zone 2 (Eastern WI and UP of MI)
- As of January 31, 2014
Zone 2
In GW
Unclaimed
Merchant
Resources
13.8
0.5
14.3
1.7
Reserves
Claimed
Resources
13.3
12.6
Demand
2016
Resources
0.5
Observations
• Resources
– Reported retirements 774 MW
less than Long Term Reliability
Assessment
– 87% of resources in zone reported
as high confidence for 2016
• Demand
– Reported demand 227 MW less
than Long Term Reliability
Assessment
2016 Resource
Requirement
Expected
Shortfall
7
OMS / MISO Resource Adequacy Survey Results
Zone 3 (All or Parts of IL, IA, MN)
- As of January 31, 2014
Zone 3
In GW
10.2
Claimed
Resources
10.2
2016
Resources
10.3
0.1
1.2
Reserves
9.1
Demand
Observations
• Resources
– Reported retirements 494 MW
less than Long Term Reliability
Assessment
– 94% of resources in zone reported
as high confidence for 2016
• Demand
– Reported demand 43 MW less
than Long Term Reliability
Assessment
2016 Resource
Requirement
Expected
Shortfall
8
OMS / MISO Resource Adequacy Survey Results
Zone 4 and 5 (All or Parts of MO and IL)
- As of January 31, 2014
Zone 4 and 5
In GW
20.7
Unclaimed
Merchant
Resources
4.4
Claimed
Resources
16.3
2016
Resources
<0.1
20.6
2.9
Reserves
17.7
Demand
Observations
• Resources
– Reported retirements 1,211 MW
less than Long Term Reliability
Assessment
– 98% of resources in zone reported
as high confidence for 2016
• Demand
– Reported demand 1,222 MW less
than Long Term Reliability
Assessment
2016 Resource
Requirement
Expected
Surplus
9
OMS / MISO Resource Adequacy Survey Results
Zone 6 (All or Parts of IN and KY)
- As of January 31, 2014
Zone 6
In GW
20.3
Claimed
Resources
20.3
2016
Resources
<0.1
20.2
2.5
Reserves
17.7
Demand
Observations
• Resources
– Reported retirements 1,657 MW
less than Long Term Reliability
Assessment
– 96% of resources in zone reported
as high confidence for 2016
• Demand
– Reported demand 847 MW less
than Long Term Reliability
Assessment
2016 Resource
Requirement
Expected
Surplus
10
OMS / MISO Resource Adequacy Survey Results
Zone 7 (MI – excluding UP)
- As of January 31, 2014
Zone 7
In GW
24.3
Unclaimed
Merchant
Resources
Claimed
Resources
21.2
1.5
4.2
19.7
20.1
2016
Resources
3.1
Reserves
Demand
Observations
• Resources
– Reported retirements 2,122 MW
less than Long Term Reliability
Assessment
– 95% of resources in zone reported
as high confidence for 2016
• Demand
– Reported demand 1,536 MW less
than Long Term Reliability
Assessment
2016 Resource
Requirement
Expected
Shortfall
11
OMS / MISO Resource Adequacy Survey Results
Zone 8 (Arkansas)
- As of January 31, 2014
Zone 8
In GW
8.8
0.2
8.6
1.0
Reserves
8.8
7.6
Demand
2016
Resources
2016 Resource
Requirement
Claimed
Resources
Expected
Surplus
12
OMS / MISO Resource Adequacy Survey Results
Zone 9 (LA, MS, TX)
- As of January 31, 2014
Zone 9
In GW
5.3
31.5
26.3
3.0 Reserves
Claimed
Resources
31.5
23.2
2016
Resources
2016 Resource
Requirement
Demand
Expected
Surplus
13
Next steps to expand available resources include
• Evaluate potential solutions and cost/benefit to stranded
capacity resources under varying conditions
• Establish specific availability and use conditions of load
modifying resources
• Establish South to Central/North capacity transfer limits and
conditions
• Eliminate barriers to efficient capacity transaction across
seams
• Continue to refine and standardize the survey process to
improve forward transparency
14