San
Fernando Valley State College
LONG-RANGE
The
A thesis
PLANNING IN THE AEROSPACE INDUSTRY
Technical Manpower Problem
submitted in partial satisfaction
requirements for the degree
of Master of
Business Admin istration
by
Morton Joseph Laine
------
January,
1968
of the
Science
in
The thesis of Morton Joseph Laine is approved:
San Fernando Valley State
January, 1 968
ii
College
TABLE OF
CONTENTS
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ABSTRA CT .
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C hapter
I. LO NG-RANGE PLANNING. . .
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Characteristics
Limit s
Benefits
Rationale
II.
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LONG-RANGE PLANNING IN AEROSPA CE
Market Constraint
Product Constraint
Characteristics
Limits
Rationale
III.
AERO SPA CE MANPOWER PLANNING REQUIREMENTS
•
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53
Skills
Characte ristics
IV.
CURRENT AERO SPA CE MANPOWER PLANNING
PRA CTI CE S
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62
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Skill s
Characteristics
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THE RE COMMENDED METHO DOLO GY.
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74
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Plan
Skills
Characteristics
Implications
B IBLI OGRAPHY
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89
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iii
ABSTRA CT
LONG-RANGE PLANNING IN THE AERO SPA CE INDUSTRY
The Technical Manpower Problem
by
Morton Joseph Laine
Master of Science in Business Administration
January, 1 968
This thesis develops a concept of long- range
planning which is based on the inherent characteristics
of the long-range planning process.
The concept is ex­
tended to the aerospace industry within the two major
constraints imposed on the industry.
The first of these constraints is caused by t�e
market being limited, in large part, to the United
States government and its various agencies.
The market
potential is defined b y the Federal budget allocati ons,
and is identified as mission requirements which translate
into specific hardware items.
The second constraint is caused by both the
technological complexity of these hardware items, and
the ·rather small quantity required o f each item.
The
industry•s capability consists, in reality, of technology,
not hardware.
The pro blem then becomes one of identifi­
cation of, and planning for, t echnical manpower.
iv
The requirements for aerospace manpower
planning--based on a mission-product-technology-skills
hierarchy and within the framework of planning character­
i stics previously developed--were then generated based
on the Work Package concept.
Current manpower planning practices in the
industry were researched by means of reports and pro�
cedures analysis, and through interviews with responsible
planning personnel within the industry.
Since skills
definition and identification (the f oundation of the
developed hierarchy)
proved inadequate, it became
evident that th ese current practices must also be
unsatisfactory.
This conclusion was supported by both
personal experience and the information gathered during
the research effort.
A plan was th en formulated for developing the
methodology needed to satisfy the requi rements of the
mission�to-skills hierarchy.
During the formulation of
t his plan, some potential effects of the methodology on
the skills mix, organization structure, and est�mating
techniques appeared.
These effects must be subjected
to rigorous analysis ·and evaluation.
v
CHAPTER I
LONG-RANGE PLANNING
Long-range planning has, in the past decade,
become quite popular with both industrial managers and
Management
Scientists.
A trend line for the popularity
would indicate an exponential increase d uring those ten
years.
This increase has persisted despite the lack of
agreement among the various observers on a single
definition for long-range planning.
This confusion is illustrated by Warren when, on
the same page, he equates long-range planning with ,long­
range forecasting 1 and then defines it as 11
for contingencies.11
expanded to 1 1
•
•
•
2
•
•
•
planning
This latter definition is later
a process of preparing for the
commitment of resources in the most economical fashion
and, by preparing, of allowing this comm itment to be
made faster and less d isruptively. u
3
Additional evidence of the lack of agreement is
lE. Kirby Warren, Long-range Planning:
The
Exec'utive Viewpoint ( Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice­
Hall, I nc., 1 96 6) , p. 17.
2 Ibid.
3 Ibid., p. 2 1.
1
2
readily available.
Anthony states:
"Strategic Planning
is the process of deciding on objectives of the organization, on changes in these objectives, on the resources
u sed to attain these objectives, and on the policies·
that are to govern the acquisition, use, and disposal
of these resources. "
4
The activities of
identif ied as:
Strategic Planning are further
"Choosing company objectives; Planning
the organization;
Setting personnel policies;
financial policies;
research policies;
Setting
Setting marketing policies;
Setting
Choosing new product lines; Acquiring
a new division; Deciding on non-routine capital expendi­
t ures. 11
5
Branch presents:
11Comprehensi ve p lanning is the
continued formulation of objectives for an organizational ,
entity a nd the guidance of its affairs toward their
6
attainmen t."
For many, there appears to be little difference
between
Strategic and
Comprehensive planning.
From the foregoing, it becomes obvious that a
4Robert N. Anthony , _Pl
_ _an
_ _n.;,..i_n_g,___a
,;.;;. n_d_C_o"'"'n'-t_r_o....;l;;;._ _S.._y_s_t"""'e'-m
"'-s:
Harvard
·A Framework for Analysis (Boston, Mass.:
Universit y, 1 965 ) , p. 1 6.
·
5 Ibid
•
I
p. 1 9
•
6Melville C. Branch, The Corporate Planning
American Management Association,
Process (New York:
1 962) 1 P• 26.
3
s e t of working de finiti ons mu s t be deve loped to as sure
con s i stency in the u se and meaning o f te rms th roughout
the ba la nce of th is docume nt .
De finitions
S ince p lanning mu st occur with in an environment ,
the fir st area o f concern i s fo reca s ting .
say s ,
A s F i sher
11 Fore ca sting and othe r 'background stud ie s ' are
rea lly not corporate p lann ing , but rathe r they are ba se s
fo r , or input s to , the plann ing proce s s . 1 1 7
Fore casting
The de fin ition of fore ca sti ng wh ich w il l be
u sed in thi s docume nt i s :
II
•
•
a ttempting to pre d ict
the kind o f env ironment the e nte rpr i s e wi l l be fac ing - p o l i tic a l , e c onom i c , soc ia l , an d ideo logica l--at some
.
8
distan t point in the future 11 ;
it .. . . . attempts to
find the mos t probab le c ourse of events , or at be st , a
range of probab i l itie s . 11 9
7 J . A . Stockfi sch , e d . , _P_l_ a_ n n _i_n_g
Fo
�� a _n_d �
_ _r�e c a_ _s_t
�l�·_ n_g
in the De fe ns e Industr i e s ( B e lmont , Cal i f . :
Wadsworth
P ub l i shing Company , Inc . , 1 962) , p . 6 9.
__
__
__
8 p . P . LeBreton and D . A . He nn ing , P lanning
The ory ( Englewood C l i ff s , N . J . :
Prentice -Ha ll , Inc . ,
1 96 ;L) 1 P• 3 5�
9 Pe ter F . Drucker , 1 1 Long-ra nge P lanning :
Cha l lenge to Manageme nt Sc ience , .. Management Science ,
V ( Apri l , 1 959) , 23 8 .
4
Ob j e ct iv e s
Perhap s the u lt imate in sema ntic confusion i s
re ached in the use o f the term s " obj e c t ive s " and
"go al s . "
Ste iner po s tu la te s that :
"Obj ect ive s are
b r oad and ge ne ra l , and are pur sue d b ut neve r achieve d in
terms of . t ime •
•
Goa l s are targe ts or de script ion s
o f th ings sought in a g iven t ime span . " 10
g oal s a s :
II
•
•
S c ott de f ine s
s tatement s of the primary purpo s e s
for whi c h the firm ( or a component par t o f i t)
i s being
ope ra te d . " 1 1 . Higginson b e l ie ve s that "an Ob j ective i s
a n end to be ach ieve d , a futu re condition o r resu lt to
be ac c ompl i she d . "
12
With d ifference s ex i s t i ng among the Management
S c ie nti sts , the p o s ition of the manage r who is not a
Manageme nt S c ient i s t i s not to be env ie d .
T o r e s o lve thi s conf lict , we nee d only rec ogn iz e
the hie rarchical nature of p l ann in g ob j e c t ive s .
At the
nea r-term level an obj ec tive may b e imme d ia te in nature
l OGeor ge A . S t e i ner , e d . , Manage rial Long-range
P lanning ( New York : McGraw -Hi l l Book Company , Inc . ,
1 9 64 ) 1 P• 3 2 0 .
l lB r ia n W . S cott, Long-range P lanning in
American Indus try ( New York :
Amer ican Management
A s s 9c iation , 1 9 6 5 ) , p . 2 3 .
12 M . Va l l iant Higginso n , Management P o l i c ie s :
Thei r Deve lopment a s Corporate Gu ide s , Ame r ican Manage­
me nt A s s oc iation Re sea rch Study 7 6 ( New York : Amer ican
Mana gement A s so ciatio n , 1 9 6 6 ) , p . 17 .
5
s u ch a s me e ti ng the payroll for th is week .
An inter-
me d iate level ob j ec tive co uld be planning the c apita l
inv e s tments to take a dvantage of lower capital costs
antic ipated two or three yea r s from the pre sent .
A
l ong-te rm ob j e c tive mi ght be to finance a l l expan s ion
internal ly a fter pro fi ts re ach a certain le ve l .
The primar y di fference betwee n near- te rm and
long-term ob j ec tiv e s i s the capab i lity of a lter i ng the
l o ng-te rm ob j e c tive s e ither qua ntitative ly or qua l i ta­
tive ly or both .
This week ' s payr ol l , for last week ' s
work , i s not rea l ly a fi t s ub j e c t for s u ch a lte rati on .
P lan
A lthough the sUb j e c t o f thi s chapter i s longr ange p l anning , it wo u ld seem a dv i sab le at th is po int to
d e fine the term 11 p la n 11 s i nce th is i s the pro d uc t o f
p lann ing .
The d e f i n i tion s e l e c te d for this purpose i s :
"A plan i s a pre determine d cour se of a ction . "
13
s u ch , " a plan mu s t have three cha ra c te ri s tic s .
i t mu s t invo lve the f utu re .
a c tion .
As
F ir st ,
Second , it mus t invo lve
Th ird , there i s an e lement o f pe rs ona l·or
o rga nizati on a l identi f ic at io n or c au sation . "14
Th is de fin iti on i s far l e s s comp r ehen s ive than
l3 LeBreton and Henn ing , p . 7 .
l4 rb id .
6
t hat u s e d by Fayol in his e leme nts of a " p lan o f
a ction . " 15
Fayo l seems to have inc orporate d e lements
of long-range planning into his e leme nts of a plan.
Separati on of the pro ce s s of long�range plann ing
from i ts prod uc t , a plan , i s des irab le i f s eman ti c
d i f f i c ult ie s are to be minimi zed .
P lanning
There are a lmost a s many de s c r iption s of p lann ing
a s the re are author s who have writte n about the sub j e c t .
Three of the se descripti ons are pre sente d w ith some
b r ie f comment s .
" P lanning
i s the se le c ting and re lating of facts
'
and the making and u s ing of a s sumptio ns re garding the
future in the v i s ual iza tio n and formu lation o f propo sed
a c tivitie s beli eved ne ce s sary to achieve de s i re d
r e s u lts " ; 16 thi s i s Terry ' s de fin itio n .
The de fin itio n
i s ne i the r pre c i s e no r c lear, but is exceed ingly
a cademic .
P lann ing i s not recogniz e d a s a pro c e s s .
1 7
Scott , w ith " p lann ing is an ana lytica l proce s s , , ,.._ '
15 He nr i Fayo l , Gene ra l and I ndu str ia l Admin i s tra­
tion ( New Yor k :
P itman Pub l i s h ing Corporat i on , 1 94 9 ) ,
p . 44.
16 G � o rge R . Terry , Principle s of Ma nagement
( 4 th e d . rev . ; Homewood , I l l . :
Richard D. I rw in , I nc . ,
1 9 64 ) 1 P• 184
o
17 scott , p. 2 1 .
7
r ec ogniz e s the fa ct that it i s a pro ce s s .
He says it i s
a proc e s s 11 • • • which encompa s s e s an a s se s sment o f the
futur e , the de term inati on o f the de s i red obj e c tiv e s in
the context of tha t future , 11
18
an d which re late s th e
organization to the e nvi ronmen t .
II
Scott then conclude s
• • that i t i s the de ve lopme nt o f alternative cou rse s
o f action to achieve s uc h ob j e c tive s , and the s ele c tion
of a c our se ( or cour s e s )
a lter na t i ve s . 11 19
of action from among the se
Thi s la st imp l ie s both f l exib i l ity
and mu ltip le path ac tiv ity .
" I t i s the continuou s proce s s of making pr e sent
e ntrepre neural ( r i sk t�king ) de c i si on s systematica l ly
a nd w ith the be st p o s s ib le knowledge of the i r futurity , 11
20
a statement whi c h show s Drucker ' s re c ognition of proc e s s
and the re lationship betwee n pre sent de c i s ions and
future time ; to continue , it i s 11 • •
• organiz ing
systemat ical ly the e ffo rts nee ded to carry out the s e
d ec i si ons , a nd me a sur ing the re sults o f th ese deci s ions
agai ns t the e xpe c tations through organi zed , systematic
21
feed-back . ��
Drucker s tre s s e s that system , organiz a-
tion , and feed-back are ne ce s s ary parts of the planning
18 rb id .
19 rbid .
20 Drucke r , p . 2 4 0 .
2 l rb id .
8
proce s s .
Imp l ic i t in the fe e d-back requirem ent i s the
c yc l i ca l nature o f the planning e ffor t .
P lann ing , a s u s e d he re in , can b e thou ght of as
a systematic , analytica l eva luati on of the organiz atio n
and its envi ronments , pre sent and antic ipate d , and
fo llow i ng the Scott and Dru cke r formu lati ons of purpose .
The hierarchic a l na ture of p la nning dir ectly c orre late s
w i th the hierarchic a l natur e of ob j e ctive s .
Hav ing c lar ifie d the me aning o f some of the
common terms emp loye d in di s cu s s ing long-range planning ,
i t i s time to exam ine some characte r i stic s of long-range
p lanning .
Characte r i stics
Once aga in we hav e a plethora o f i denti tie s .
F rom the ma s s it i s nece s sary to identify and s e le c t
those charac te r i stic s · which a re o f pr imary importance .
T ime Re late d
Thi s characte r i stic , when app l i e d to p lans , is
u n ive r sa l .
I t i s , of cour s e , futu re -or iente d s i nce the
pa st cannot b e i nflu enced b y e ither p la n s or actions
originati ng in the pr e se nt .
A s S c ott exp l a in s :
" P lanning i s b a s e d o n man•s
a s sumption that even though the futu re i s uncerta in he
c an do s omething to make it better than it would b e
9
otherwi se . u 2 2
He furthe r de scrib e s a manager ' s behavior
w ith thi s s tateme nt :
" E ith er he can try to grapple with
th e s e ever-chang ing cond it i on s by me ans o f p lanning
techn iqu e s or he can tru s t to luck by making no e ffort
t o plan . "
23
A s to how f ar in the future p lann ing sho u l d extend , S te i ne r ha s a c r iteri on .
11P lann ing sho uld. en-
compa s s a per i o d o f time in the future ne c e s sary to see
•
•
•
the f ul fi l lmen t of the commitments invo lve d in a
decis io n at the p re se nt time . "
24
Thi s is e specia lly
appropr iate when we examine its app l ic ati on to d if fere nt
type s o f indu s try .
In the h igh- fa shion w orld of women ' s garme nts ,
the commi tme nt may be for onl y six months and ye t , thi s
i s s ti l l long-range plann ing .
For a lumber c ompany , the
long-range p la nn ing invo lve d i n re fore station may invo lve
a commi tment approach ing a century.
So it is c lear that
the commitment of re s ou r ce s over time , rathe r than a
speci fic time span , i s the time re late d cha r ac te r i s ti c .
Anothe r w ay of expre s s ing the time re latedne s s
o f long-range p lann ing is the s ta tement u se d by both
2 2 scott , p . 2 1 .
2 3 Ib id
•
I
p
•
24
•
24 steiner , p . 4 5 .
10
S te iner 25 and Drucke r : 26
pres ent de c i s ions . "
" I t dea l s w ith the futurity of
Thi s ind icate s that the de c i s i on-
maker mus t be made aware of the impa c t , thr ough time ,
o f the e f fe c ts o f the dec is ion on the exter nal and
inte r na l environme nts a nd of how the impact s upports
the ob j e c tive s a t each a f fected hierarch ica l leve l .
A secondary , but s ti l l time re late d , characteri stic of long-range p la nn ing ha s to do w ith the profit
p a tte rn of an or ganiz ation .
De ferred Bene fits
A n exce l le nt de s cription of th is characte r i s tic
i s s upp l ie d by B ranch :
pre s uppos e s
a
" It i s ax iomatic that p la nning
wi l l i ngne s s to spend time , e ne rgy , and
money in the pre sent toward re s u lts wh ich w i l l not be
.. 27
.
. e d for some t�me
r e a 1 �z
.
I t shou ld not b e suppos e d
tha t this w il l ingne s s w i l l occur w ithout j us ti f i c ation-w he ther the j u s ti fic a tion be e c onomic , s ocia l , or in
s atis facti on of some othe r uti lity func tion .
Nor w i l l
th i s w i l lingne s s b e enha nce d b y the p lanner ' s ne g le c t o f
the anti c ipated envir onment.
25 Ib id . , p . 15 .
26Drucke r , p . 23 9 .
.
27 Branch
, p . 58 .
11
Environment a l ly Or iented
Recognit i on of the character i st i c of envi ron­
m ental or ient at ion ha s b ee n almo st unive r s a l .
Proof o f
thi s recog n ition c a n b e s e e n i n the empha s is g iven to
this orientat ion through out the l i te rature .
s ays , it i s e s sent ial to make
11
•
•
•
A s St e iner
an examination of
present t rends of the enterpr i s e , futu re env ir onmenta l
p o s sib i l i t ie s and the i r re l at i onship �o firm activ i t ie s ,
and a var i e ty of external and int erna l a ff a ir s . 1 1
28
Here
Steine r i s empha s iz ing th e influence o f intern a l and
external envi ronments on each o the r .
S cott al s o str e s se s the relat ion sh ip s o f
II
the company • s own strengths a nd weakne s se s
change s i n the e nvir onment :
technolog ical , and s oc ia l
a nd
•
strateg i e s . 11
29
.
economic , po l it ic a l ,
•
•
c ompet ito r s capab i l it ie s
Some of the externa l environ-
mental facto r s are ident if ie d , and th e fact th at the s e
factors are s ub j ect to change i s n ote d .
The internal
environment i s expre s se d only in term s of strengths and
we akne s s e s but the exter nal fac tors c e rta inly are
ident i fiable w ithi n the i nternal env i ronme nt .
Who ha s
not b ecome entang le d , how eve r innocen t ly , in a polit ic a l
web within an orga nizat ion?
2 Bste i ner ,
p.
11 .
2 9 sco t t , p . 64 .
12
A le s s academ ic i ndividua l , B ruce Payn e , bel i eve s
that the
[ are ]
"
.
•
•
mos t imp ortant th ing s to s tudy
•
( 1 ) the ke y influe nc e s in the grow th of the
indus try and ( 2 ) the s tre ngths and we akne s se s o f the
c ompany a s c ompar�d to those of its pre s ent or potential
c ompetitor s . "3 0
Exp l ic it reco gni tion is g ive n to the
e xter nal envi ronmental factors .
The internal environ-
men t is ag ain expre s sed i n te rms of strength s and weakn e s se s .
Both change and t ime re late dne s s ar e indicate d
b y the use o f the wor d "potentia l " i n re fere nce to
c ompe titor s .
I t rema i n s for Dru cker to s upply total recogni'
tion o f e nv ironmen ta l orienta tion w ith the s tateme nt
that:
"
•
•
•
a model of the re levants in inte rnal and
external env ironments--only a ' long -range plan' can
pr ovide."3 1
S inc e long-ra nge plann ing ha s the charac te r i s ti c
o f e nv ir onmenta l or ientati on , i t mu s t b e func tional within the environmen t .
Env ironmenta l ly Re spon s ive
To func tion w ithi n the e nvironment , a long -range
p lan mu s t be re spons ive to the environme nt .
I f the
·
3 0 nav i d w. Ew ing , e d . , Long - range P lanning for
Harper & Brothers , Pub li she rs ,
Manageme nt ( New York :
1 9 5 8 ) 1 P• 1 2 2 .
3 l nrucke r , p . 2 4 2 .
13
e nvironment change s , th e p l an mus t change .
firm s the change by thi s :
Branch con-
" Longer-range p lan s are
rev i s e d onc e a year , but adj u s tments brou ght about by
current e ve nts are accumu lated and fo rmal revi s i on i s
made in the interim if' i nd ic ate d . "
32
If some garage
i nventor were s uddenly to pate n t a cheap , simpl e device
for n u l l ifying gravity , one suspects that the transporta­
ti on ind u s try would fi nd imme diate cause for revi s ion of
long- range plan s .
The l ong -range p lanning proc e s s mus t
b e re spo n s ive to the environme nt .
Th i s re spon s i ve characte ri s tic i s supporte d at
the seconda ry level by two other characte r i stic s .
P r eventive
The first of the s e s ec ondary cha racteri sti c s i s
this :
" P lanning w i l l b e preventive rather than
c orrective in de s ig n . "
33
The evaluat ion of alternativ e s
and the s e l ection o f tho se deeme d both fe a s ibl e and
appropr iate i s a n a ttemp t to avo id tro ub l e .
By being
r e spon s i ve to th e environment , the long-range p lanni �g
p ro ce s s shou ld i denti fy prob lems far enough ahe a d in
time to prevent " surpri se " events .
Natura l ly the re w i l l b e c a se s where the environ- .
men t chang e s dra s tically in a short per iod of time .
3 2 Branch , p . 103
•
3 3 LeBreton and Henn ing , p . '7 5 .
Thi s
14
leads to the second of the seco ndary cha r ac te r i st i c s .
Cont ingen c ie s
An adequate long-ra nge plann i ng proce s s w i ll
prov ide for the developmen t of separate p lan s cove ring
var ious chang e s in the e nvi ronment .
The se p lan s w i l l b e
rev i s e d per iodi cal ly an d impleme n te d in re sp onse t o the
c ont inge ncy .
H . I. Anso ff , a Lockhee d v ic e pre s ident . ,
i dent if ie s , n o t exhau stive ly , some typ ic a l ar ea s .
A ma j or t e chno log i cal b reakthrough who s e
char acte r i s t i c s the planne r s ca n fore s e e , but
wh os e t iming they cannot at � r e se nt determ ine .
lor a] lo s s of
An e conomic re ce s s ion
or der s . A maj or eco nomic depr e s s i on . A l imit ed
A sudden c e s s at ion of c o ld war . 3 4
WaL
•
•
•
.
•
•
The requ ir ements o f e nv ironme nta l respons e
a utomati c a l l y lead to the next maj or character i st i c .
Flex ib i l ity
Thi s cha racte r i stic , t oo , has gai ne d wide spre a d
acceptance by Management S c i e nt i s t s .
S cott says :
1 1 F ir st , there i s the not ion o f fl exib i l ity a s a qua l ity
t o be built i nto the p lanning strategy . ..
35
Not ic e that
he u s e s 11planning 11 rathe r tha n 1 1planned, 11 th i s is anothe r
recognit ion o f proce s s--dynamic rathe r than s tati c .
110ne of the e s sent ial cha racte r i s t i c s o f a
plann ing gro up or orga n ization i s t o ma int a in
3 4 Ew i ng , p . 4 6 6 .
3 5 scot t , p . 141 .
15
f lexib il ity
•
•
•
adapting an d a dju sti ng the p l an to
the organiz ati on , and v ic e ve rsa . 11 3 6
Th is qu ote from
Ste iner furni she s additional pr oo f of the empha s i s
p l aced o n fl exib i l ity .
I n th i s c a se , the importance of
the organiz ation and the plann ing sta ff remain ing
r e spons ive to env ir onmenta l change s is a l so pointe d out .
The re is al so a d i re c t rel ationship between
c e rta i n a spe c ts of flexib ility and the time dimens i on
o f long -range plann ing .
The farthe r ahea d in time we
plan , the l e s s cer tai n we a re of the validity of ou r
a s sumptions .
Support for th i s pre mise come s from Branch :
11 The longer -range its proje cti ons , the gre a ter the i r
f lex ib i l i ty to a llow for increase d uncerta inty . 11 3 7
He
c lar ifi e s the re lationship b e tween time and f lexib ility
so mewha t further :
11 The exte nt of flexib il ity i s in part
a func tion of time -progre s s iv e commitmen t for pre sent-­
greater free dom of ac tion farther out in time . 1 1
This concept of flexib ility leads to
nate characte r i stic .
a
38
subor di­
Although subord i nate as a character-.
i s tic , th is face t of long-range planning may , in tru th ,
b e one of the mo st impor tant e lements of the entire
p r ocess .
3 6 steiner , p . 7 6 .
3 7 Branch , p . 10 9.
3 8 Ib id .
16
S e gue nti ality of Dec i s i ons
The flexible natur e o f the pr oce s s al lows de lay
i n mak ing de c i s ions and committ ing re s our ce s .
It i s
thus pos s ib le to re fra i n from comm itment unti l more
e v iden ce is ava i lab le an d then to make the commitment
a fter inte gra ting the new info rma ti on with tha t obta ine d
earlier and , if ne ce s s ary , to re v i s e the plan .
S cott says :
As
" Long -rang e p lans , by their very natu re ,
r e qu ire seque ntial de c i s ions and s ub seque nt readj u st­
ments . " 3 9
Thi s feature a l lows not only for incrementa l
e xpenditure s b ut for both re d ire cti on of e f for t and
c omplete el imina ti on o f a pro j ec t if the le ve l o f r i sk
b ecome s u nacceptab le .
The ab i l ity to make i nc remental expe nd i tur e s
make s i t po s s ib le to take tw o o r more actions , says
F i sher , "in e ar ly s te p s whe n the cost is like ly to be
l ow
•
•
Th i s parallel path po s s ibi l ity give s an
in s ight into the s truc ture o f a long - range p lan .
When it is impos sib le for var iou s reason s
( inadequacy o f ob j e c tiv e , l ack o f informati on , per s ona l
inde c i sion) t o select one among seve ra l a lternativ e s ,
two ,. or more , alter na tive s can be s e le c te d a nd the eve nts·
3 9 scott , p . 24 .
4 0 stockfi sch , p . 7 2 .
17
o f each laid out in a chron ologi c a l network .
I t can
readily be seen that each e vent may then be come a
decis ion node and tho s e porti ons of the plan which have
multip le paths le a ding to the de s i red event ( s ) , become
dec i sion tree s .
Sub j e ctive probabi l itie s can be
a s s igne d to the event ( s ) and c o s ts and return s deve lope d .
We can the n ca lcu late expe c te d value s for the alternat ive s .
S ince the number of mu lti ple path s i ncrea se s a s
w e move farther into the future , a nother primary
cha racteri s tic o f the long-range plann ing proce s s
b e c ome s a pparen t .
Un s truc tu re d
In try ing to so lve the prob lems o f long-ra nge
p lanning , evidenc e for the number o f events and de c i s ion s
incre a s ing as w e pre dict the future i s quite re al isti c .
The fact that we can not fo re s e e a l l o f the s e branche s
which occur from a s i ng le no de i s pre s e nted in an
an a ly s i s o f a 11 sing le 11 technical d i s covery by
I
•
I
•
Rab i 4 1
8
The date o f the event i s given a s 1 929 .
The
c utof f date f or te chnology deve lop ed from thi s .. s ing·l e 11
trunk i dea i s 1958 .
During the pe riod covere d , th ere
4 l nav i d A l l i son , 11The Growth of I dea s , .. I nter­
nati onal Sc ience a nd Technology , LXVII ( Ju ly , 196 7 ) , 25 .
18
ha ve been s ix ma j or ( five or more scie ntif ic contribu ti on s s temn1ing from the central tru nk) branche s and
It i s inc once ivabl e tha t
s everal secondar y branching s .
the tre e could ha ve been structu re d in 193 0 beyond the
next few yea r s .
To have asked Rab i , hims e l f , to deve lop
the s tr uc ture wou ld have b e e n futi le s ince none of h i s
co ntr ib u tion s �ere outs i de the tre e trunk a l though h i s
f inal contribution of ten wa s made i n 1953 .
There i s recogni tion o f th i s lack of s truc ture
i n the l iteratur e .
Strate g ic prob lems
are by the ir nature
c omplex a nd i l l s truc tu re d
current mathe­
matic a l a nd s tati s tical techn ique s have littl e
to co ntrib ute . .
[the prob lem i s] le s s one
o f mak ing an optima l cho i ce than it i s one of
be ing imag inat iv e and sy s temat i c in formula t ing
a lte rnative s . 4 2
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Th is view , accept ing mathemati c s a s the mo s t
highly s tructured of a l l the d i s c ip l i ne s and ac cepting
i ts non-re levance to lon g- range planning prob lems ,
re c e ive s suppor t from Rapoport and Drews :
".
•
•
the
e stab l ishme nt o f c r i te r ia a s to wha t i s actually be st
for a bus i ne ss e n terpr i se i s a ltogether beyond the re alm
of mathematics . "4 3
Anothe r v iew :
"The s tati sti c s o f
4 2 R . M . Cye r t and W. R . D i l l , "The Futu re of
B u s i.ne s s Educ at ion , " The Journal of Bu s ine s s , XXXVII
( Ju ly 1 1 9 64 ) 1 2 2 6
o
4 3 L . A . Rapoport and W . P . Drew s , "Mathematical
Approach to Long- ra ng e P lanni ng , " Harvard Bus ine s s
Rev i ew , XL ( May -June , 1 9 6 2 ) , 7 9 .
19
long-range plann ing sho uld b e based on actuar ial
pr i nciple s rather than on the unimag ina tive ma th ematics
of the hi storica l figures o f da i ly bookkeep ing ta l l ie s . ��4 4
There are other cha racteri stic s of long-range
p l anning pre se n te d by many othe r author s , but the f ive
di s c u s se d abov e rep r e sent , to th i s w r iter , the pr imary
characte ri s ti c s and their supporting secondar ie s .
Having de fine d long -range plann ing and d i s c u s se d
its characte r i s tic s , it would s e em appropriate to examine
s ome of the l imits of long-rang e planning .
Limits
There are , as u sua l , many ide a s a s to what
c on stitu te s the l imits of planni ng .
One group identi fi e s
the ma jor con s traint a s the uncerta inty caus e d b y time ,
an other say s the co s t of p lanning i s the princip le limi t ,
a third beli eve s i t to b e the u ti lity fun c ti on o f the
organ ization ' s de c i s i on-makers .
A rea sonab ly comp le te
a nd acceptab le s et of l imi ts h a s b e en deve loped by
Koontz and O ' Donne l l ,
45
which w i l l be u s e d he re a s a
framework.
4 4Ameri ca n Ma nageme nt As soc iation , P lann ing
Ahe ad for Profits , Report No . 3 ( New York : Ame ri c an
Management A s soc iati on , 1 9 5 8 ) , p. 5.
4 5 H. Koontz and c. o • Donne l l , Princ iple s o f
Manageme nt ( 2 nd e d . rev . ; New York: McGraw -H i l l Book
Company , Inc . , 1 9 5 9 ) .
20
Prob lem of Accurate Prem i s e s
The autho r s ident i fy th re e b a s i c types o f
pr emi se s upon whi ch p la n s are ba sed .
Non-c ontro l lab le
; popu lat i on growth ,
price leve l s , polit ica l envi ronment , t ax rate s
and.polic ie s , a nd bu s ine s s cycle s .
Semi-cont r o l lab le
share of the marke t ,
labor turnove r , labor e ff i c i e ncy , c ompany
price pol icy ,
ind us try leg i s la tive p o l ic y .
Cont r o l lab le
expan s i on into new
marke t s ,
aggr e s s i ve deve lopme nt or r e s earch
program ,
site for hea dquarter s off ice s . 4 6
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
This h ie rar c hy ·re fl e ct s , a s might be expe c ted ,
the t ran s i t ion from th e who l ly ext�r nal envi r onmen t t o
the who lly internal e nv ironmen t .
It wou ld seem axio-
mat ic tha t a premi s e b a se d who l ly on the interna l
e nvironment shou ld be ·who l ly co nt ro l lab le .
The sem i -
co ntrollab le category re fle c t s the int e r action between
the external and internal env ironment s and shou ld prove
l e s s sus cept ib le of contro l .
The externa l env ironment ,
a s here i dent ifi e d , is beyond the control of a ll but the
large s t o f ente rpr ise s , a nd then only indirect ly .
An exce l l e nt ra t io na le for th is l imit i s
pre se nte d by B ranch .
B ut , at pre sent , tru ly sc ient ific metho d can
be applie d only t o certain s egment s o f compre­
hens ive p l anning , be cau s e many of the d i f ferent
eleme nt s o f the to tal prob lem ar e variab le , some
canno t be expre s se d me an ingfu lly w ith numbe r s ,
4 6 Ib i d .
I
p . 4 78 .
21
·the unit s o f mea surement of othe r s a re not '
comparab l e , and the law s o f operation o f
an other group are unknown. 4 7
I t w il l b e come appare nt that the fore go ing s tatem e nt app l ie s to some of the o ther limit s as we l l a s to
the accuracy limi t .
Rap idi ty of Change s
There are two re late d prob lems re al ly app l icab le
here .
Looking a t th e t e chno log ica l side of th ing s , the
facet s of the fir s t are :
"Change s in te chnology.
T ime when pre d icted change s w i l l o c c ur . "
48
[and ]
We cannot
l imit our selve s only to the rap id ity of the cha nge s .
A ll owance mus t b e made for the t iming of the change a nd
it s pot ent ial der ivat ive s , a s the Rab i examp le show s .
Then , too , some of the non-cont r o l lable and s emic ontro l lab le p r em is e s in the external environment may
a l s o pr e sent the s e s ame re late d prob lems .
Ther e may be an awarene s s that a new tax b i l l
w i l l alter deprec iat ion rate s and al lowanc e s .
Th i s
awarene s s may not , however , inc l u de quant i tative values
for rat e s and al lowance s or the e ffecti ve date . · A
typic a l , unre s o lve d pr ob lem then a r i se s .
What i s the
expe c t ed impact on the organizat i on ' s capital
4 7 Branch , p . 8 7 .
4 8 scott , p . 1 3 1 .
22
e xpend iture plan ?
O r even mo re b a s ic:
w i l l the ne xt federa l
e l ec t i on r e s u lt in an adm ini strat ion mo re o r l e ss
favorab le to t he bus i ne s s commun ity?
The non-contro l lab le and semi -contro llab le
premi s e s are r e l ate d t o anothe r of the limit s .
Externa l I nfl exib i lit ie s
The externa l infl exib i l i t i e s a re bu i l t - in
por t ions of the external envir onment and long- range
plann ing to thi s env ir onme nt is rea ct ive in natur e .
One of the mo st fru stra t ing factor s of the e xterna l
e nv ironment i s .the beha vior of competit o r s .
o f thi s c ome s from Ewing :
Ver ificati on
11 Effec tive plann ing often re -
qui re s management t o choo se a course o f ac tion in the
l ight o f what a c ompet itor i s like ly t o do . ��
49
The re ason s for the e xternal inflexi b i l it i es a re
ea sy to under stand and exp lain .
The same c annot be said
for mos t of the ne xt type of l imit s .
Int ernal I nfle xib i l it i e s
The mo s t r eadi ly unde r s to od o f the se l imi t s is
that whi ch dea l s w ith the re sourc e s of the fi rm .
No
planning, whi ch require s the appl icat ion of re s ou rce s - ­
fina nc ial , ma npower , te chnolog i ca l--beyond the capab i l ity
4 9 Ew ing , p . 4 27 .
23
o f the firm t o · s upp ly , can be e xpe c te d t o be e ffe ctive .
I t i s requ ired of a l l p lanning e ffort tha t i t be conf ined to the po s s ib le re source appl i cat ion and rea sonab le expe ct at ions o f the re sults to be at tained from
thi s app l i cat ion .
It i s not rea sonab le to expect only
s u cc e s se s .
Le s s under s tandab le are tho se l imit s which are
impo sed by ex i s t ing , though ob s o lete , company pol icy .
Re c ogni tion of th i s type o f l imitation can lead to it s
e l im inat ion unle s s the ut i l ity funct ion of some execut ive wou l d prohib it the remova l of thi s con stra int .
Thi s ut i l ity funct ion constraint is not we l l
r e c ognized a nd ye t , i n many ins tance s , i t i s the mo st
d i f f i c u lt part of the interna l environment to overcome .
A s Scott po int s out :
" Strate g ic plans are u sually based
upon c orpora te sel f-appra i s a l s whi ch are acceptable to
'1
.
ma na gement , but they are no t nece s sar� y �mpar t �a l .
.
.. so
To fu rther i l lustrate the non- rationa l - - from the
o rgan ization ' s v iewpo int--nature of the u t i li ty func t ion
in fl ue nc e d de ci s ion , we have the ane cdot e , po s s ibly
apocrypha l in nature , o f the pre s i dent of a sma ll
e le ct ronic s company .
De spite the e conomic s o f the move ,
the . new , and large r , plant s ite cho sen wa s
C a l i fornia beach community .
5 0 scott , p . 8 0 .
a
sma l l
The pre s ident ' s rea son w a s
24
t hat hi s w ife ha d alway s wa nt e d t o live in s u ch a
c ommunity--and now co uld�
The l a s t of th e limit s is probab ly the mo s t
e a s i ly unde r s tood o f the five .
T ime and Expense
There i s a linea r re lat io nship b e twe e n the
two fac e t s of t hi s limit .
The longer the t ime du r ing
w hich e ffort is expe nde d on p lann ing , the greater th e
c o s t t o the orga niz a t i on .
Another point of view :
g iven
t he same amou nt o f de tai l , i t c os t.s more t o plan for a
Thi s par t icu lar re lat ionship , cons i der ing
longer t ime .
the mu ltipl icat i on of de c i si on node s an d a lternat ive s ,
prob ab ly i s not linear for p lann ing t ime span/c ost .
During the deve lopment al pe riod of the p lann ing
e ffort , we must agree w i th what Berg says about deve lopment :
II
•
peop le always want to s pend mone y for
development i f they are a l lowed t o . "
51
The forego ing wou ld seem to indicate the nee d
for tra de off studie s o f the fi rm ' s planning e ffort .
S ome s ort o f i dent ificat ion of the po int a t whi9h t imec o s t re lat i on ship s ment ioned above become marg inal wou ld
s e em to be a requirement for any s e r i ous pla nning e ffort .
5 1Norman Be rg , " Strategic P lanni ng in Conglome ­
r a t e C ompan ie s , " Harva rd B u s i ne s s Rev iew , XLIII ( May­
June , 1 96 5 ) , 8 5 .
25
So far , p la nning has been de fine d , i t s char acteri st ic s have been ident ifie d , an d i t s l imit s di s c u s se d .
Now , l e t u s s e e why w e want t o do plann ing .
Bene fit s
Thi s i s another c a s e of too much rathe r than too
l ittle informa t ion .
However , the phi losoph i ca l imp l ica-
t i on ha s been apt ly e xpre s s ed by an anc ient Japane se
prov e rb :
"He who c an see thre e days ahead w i ll b e r i ch
fo r three thou s and ye ar s . " 5 2
The b a s ic patter n o f benefit s derived from longr a nge p lann ing s eems to requ ire two categori e s .
A lthough
the d i st inctio n somet ime s appears di ffic u lt to make , some
b e ne fit s apply chie fly to the organ i z at i on , wh i le some .
a pply ch ie fly to the people withi n t he organiz at ion .
People
One of the mo s t important bene fits a s c r ib e d t o
long -r ange p la nn ing i s t h e developme n t o f plann ing for
the purpose of influe nc ing the external e nvironment .
Ralph J . Cord iner , pre s ident of Gener al E le ct r ic , said
i n regard to p lanning :
"P urpo se fu l mana ger s nee d to
deve lop the capac ity to infl ue nce r ather than me re ly
a dapt t o the bus ine s s env ir onme nt
•
•
•
[ they w i l l the n
5 2 Amer i can Manageme nt A s soc iat ion , P lanning Ahe ad·
i
for Prof it s , Report No . 3 ( New York :
Ame r i c an Mana gemen t A s sociat ion , 195 9 ) , p . 9 .
26
b e ] le s s likely t o s ac ri fi ce tomorrow ' s gre a t opportu­
nit ie s . " 5 3
Erne s t R . Breech , Ford Motor Company e xecut ive ,
i n di scus sing the stra te gy of a large company , i s even
roo re force ful :
"We b e l ieve it is our bu s i n e s s , and that
o f othe r large compan ie s , to make trend s , not to fol l ow
them . " 54
He stre s se s that th is can be a chieved only
thro ugh int e l l igent pla nn ing .
11 ' Cry s t a l l iz a -
Othe r " peop le 11 b e ne fi t s inc lude :
55
ti on' o f e xe cu t iv e thinking . 11
Thi s w ou ld o ccur
natura lly if we re c a l l the hierarch ical nature of
obj ec t ive s a nd p la ns .
Thi s b en�fit i s dire ct ly re lat e d
t o the ext e nt that comm i tte e s are invo lve d i n the p lann i ng proce s s .
"Committee i nve s tigat ion s
•
•
•
[ are ]
e xc e l le nt mea n s of keep ing the t op e xecut ive s informed
5
about di ffe r
' ent par t s of th e bu sine s s . n 6
H . Ladd P lumley , forme r pre s i dent o f the
u.s.
Chamb e r of Comme rce , b e l i eve s th at since manag eme nt i s
aware o f t he obj ec t ive s o f the vari ou s part s of the
o rgan ization , and re c e iv e s p eriodic c on tro l report s ,
c lo se supervi s ion is unne c e s sary .
5 3 Ib i d .
I
He b e lieve s that
p . 78 .
54Ewing , p . 43 8 .
5 5 rbid . , p . 7 6 .
5 6 Ihid .
;
�. -
... ----- ·-·
·-·--·---------------------------·----··----
...
----------- ..... . - ---- .. - "�-- ---�
------------ - - - -- -- .•..--�---'<·
--------�-----�--- -·······�--- ___________________,__
27
p l anning "
•
•
•
e nable s people to wo rk in fre e dom . u 5 7
Ste ine r , e xtend i ng the e ffe c t s o f the ob j e ct ivep l anning hierarchy , is c onvi nced that long-range p lann ing
'
"a s sure s dire cti on o f e ffor t . " 5 8
S inc e a l l ob j ect iv e s --
the pla nning pe r formance be ing adequate--are cons i stent ,
thi s l a s t i s almo st a tru ism and equ al ly ob vious i s the
fact that it "deve l op s per s onne l . " 5 9
A final , po s s ib ly unexpe cted benefit also occur s .
In some c as e s 1 however1 the d e s ire to e xceed
our budget plan s ac tua l ly accou nt e d f or the exc e l ­
lenc e o f our per formance .
It prov ided that in­
c e nt ive spark wh ich is o ften needed to ignite the
whole . 6 0
The l is t of "pe ople " bene fi ts i s not alli n c l us ive but is i ndi cat ive o f some of the rea sons for
long-range plann ing's pre valence throughout Amer ican
ind u s try .
The l i st of b e ne fi t s to the organizat i on i s
n o le s s lengthy and impo rtant .
Orga n iz at i on
Wherever uncertaint y e xi st s 1 making a dec is ion
wil l invo lv e the tak i ng o f r i sks .
i s that "
•
Drucker's attit ude
long-range p lanning i s not an attempt t o
5 7 11Long Range P la nn ing , " Bus i ne s s Manageme nt ,
XXVII ( Februar y , 19 6 5 ) , 3 8 .
5 8 ste iner , p . 1 14 .
5 9 Ib id .
6 0Ib i d . 1 p . 249 .
28
e l iminate r i sk .
I t i s es sent ial tha t the ri sks
t aken be the r ight r i sks . "6 1
Thi s can be ach ieved only
if the al t ernat iv es are i den t ified and properly eva luated .
The us e of para l l el pat h s can al so a s si s t in s electing
t he r isks to be t ak en .
The fact that " • • • the plann ing group may f ind.
b l i nd spo t s and t r oub le area s " 6 2 i s men t ioned by Ew ing .
Th i s can b e expected to r es u lt from the i nt egrat i on of
the h ierarchy o f ob j ect. i ves and p la n s whi ch ha s been
po stu lated ear l ier .
Ew ing al so looks at long-range p lann ing a s
furn i shing a .. . .
. company-wide s ounding board for
appr a i s i ng th e potent ial of new techniques . " 6 3
i s scarcely r oom for d is s ent .
There
I f s imu lat ion pr oves the
va lue of one a lternat ive and thi s is bo rne ou t by
experience , the t echnique w i l l probab ly bec ome acceptab l e
I f the s elec t ion proves fau l ty , the t echn ique-u ser s had
b et t er ha ve a c onv inc i ng explana t ion .
Plumley ha s a l is t of or gan iz ation b ene fi t s from
l ong -rang e p lanning whi ch r ea l ly requ ire no amp l i f icat ion . !
1.
I t forces a company t o dec ide the relat ive
importanc e o f va r i ou s pro j e ct s and a l lot
ea ch proj ect a cer ta in priority .
6 1Drucker , pp . 2 3 9 -24 0 .
62 Ewing , p . 7 6 .
6 3 Ib id .
29
·2 .
3.
4.
5.
6.
I t give s ea ch per s on in the company a ro ugh ,
and s ome t ime s a de ta i le d , idea of what other
departme nt s in the c ompany are try ing to do .
I t enab le s a comp any to move cohe s iv e ly .
I t fa c i l itates co s t contro l .
I t sp urs the i ntro duct ion of n ew produc t s .
I t enab le s ma nageme nt t o sp ot the re a sons
for dev iat ions from i t s plans more quickly
tha n it othe rwi se wou ld.o4
Perhaps it em 4 shou ld b e e xpand e d t o include
ot her kinds of c o ntrol .
The l a s t , a nd a mos t important , b ene fit ha s to
do w ith mea sur ing the e ffe ctivene s s of the organi z at i on ,
it s compone nts , and its per sonnel .
ava i lab le , this i s a po s s ib i l ity .
S ince obj e ct iv e s a r e
Howeve r , Scott ha s
s ome thought s on the sub j e c t .
This kind of p l an by it s very nature en­
c ompa s s e s a long period of t ime , and the re fore ,
any fina l c ompar i son of " actual " with " p la nne d "
w i l l not be �va i lab le for year s . 6 5
Anothe r reason fo r management to exerc i se care
in u s i ng long-range p la nning for me a sur ing e ffe ct ivene s s ,
ha s to do w i th the flexib i l ity characte r i s tic of obj e c tive s a n d plans .
The yar d s t i ck cha ng e s a s the ob j ec t ive
chang e s ..
One f inal wor d o f caut ion come s from Branch .
" P lans prov ide a mea su re o f p e r formance - -which , parent he t ic a l ly , is some time s ·the re a son for a strong
64 " Long Range P lann ing , " Busi ne s s Management ,
XXVII ( February , 1 9 65 ) , 3 7 .
6 5 scot t , p . 194
•
·
... .. ··-- ······ -··--------------�---··· -·--·····- ··••··· ···•··
..
·--·
-·····--·'---···-·····-··- ·-······- ... -··-·-··----···-···-·········-·· · ······--·-···········-··
30
r e s i stance t o the i dea . u6 6
Hav i ng i ntroduced the i dea of caut ion , the t ime
ha s come to iden t i fy some o f the rea sons for faulty
l o ng-ra nge p lann ing in indus try .
Fau lty P lanning
Th i s i s another area wh ich abound s in mat er ial
descr ip t ive of the prob l ems rel at ing to faulty longrang e planning .
One o f the more comprehen s iv e l i sts ,
d iv ided into th ree admittedly overlapping cat egor i es ,
i s fur nished by Steiner .
I.
II .
III .
Conceiv ing a nd under s ta nd ing the pr oces s
of pla nning .
Develop i ng an a dequate pla n and estab l i sh­
ing rea l i s t ic obj ect ives , po li c i es , a nd
stra t eg ie s .
Organi z at i on of pr ocedu res for effect ive
p lanning . 6 7
O f the s even it em s i n the fi r st category , two
a r e un iver sal ly menti oned by a ll other author s .
The s e
two spel l o u t t h e ab senc e of t op man agement invo lvement
w i th , or u s e of , plann ing .
Other s dea l w ith non-
�ecognition of planning a s a pro ces s , it s itera t iv e
natu re , the r equi r ement s o f flexib il it y , and inst itut i ona liz a t ion of the func t io n .
6 6 Branch , p . 4 9 .
6 7George A . Steiner , " How to A s sure Poqr Long­
range P la nn ing fo r You r C ompany , " Ca l i for nia Manag ement
Rev iew , VII ( Summer , 1 9 6 5 ) , 94 .
31
A s Vanc i l says :
" ( 1 ) The pre s i de nt i s the only
legitimate father of a p lann ing department .
( 2 ) A good
father doe sn•t aba ndo n one of his offspring a s soon a s
'
he has sired it . " 6 8
The secon d category co ns i s t s o f e ight item s .
The s e deal mos t ly w ith the mechanics o f p la nning and
s t re s s the fa i lure s of de finit ion o f ob j ec tive s , o f
f le xibi l ity , an d o f relat io n ship of long-range t o shortr a nge p lans .
The te n it em s of the third categor y have to do
w ith fa i l ure s in the ope rat ing area s of p l anning .
Forma liz ing the plans and inst itut iona liz ing the funct i on
are ag ai n stre s se d .
Anot he r way of looking at some cau se s of faulty
long- range p la nn i ng i s provide d by the charac ter i s t i c s
ident i fi e d e ar l ie r .
I f any one of the character i st ic s
is ignored dur ing the planning pro ce s s, b oth proce s s and
plan w i l l be fau lt y .
The importance o f the e nvironmental char acteri st i c s an d the re lat ion to t ime is atte sted to by
Anthony .
Few companie s have a s ystemat ic approach to
s t rategic pla nning . Mo st companies re act to
.change s in t f1e i r envi ronmen t a f ter they exper ience
6 8 Richa r d F . Van c i l, " --- So You ' re Go ing to Have
a P lanning Depart ment , " Ha rvard B u s i ne s s Rev iew , XLIV
(May-June , 19 6 6 ) , 89 .
32
the chang e s ; they do not have an organi z e d mea n s
o f attempting t o fore see changes and to take
action in ant i c ipat i on o f them . 69
It shou ld b e equal ly obv iou s tha t ne gle ct ing any ·
o f the l imi ts t o p lanning, which have b e e n prev iou s ly
d i scu s se d , wi ll cause ina dequacie s in b oth p la nning and
p la n s .
Furth e r inadequacie s ca n be cau sed by conf u s ing
a portion of a plan for the ent ire pla n .
It i s no t s u f fi c ie nt t o deve lop a fac il it ie s
a cqu i s i t ion p lan w itho u t a l so g enerating the support ing
f i na nc i a l plan and th � uti liz at i on plan with the potentia�
I
a lternat ive s the re t o .
The point has been re ached at wh ich it shou ld be
possib le to s ynthe s iz e a rat ionale for long-range p lann ing ..
Rationa le
The re seems to be gene r a l agre ement tha t the
fi r st s tep in the long-range p la nn ing pr oce s s i s that
o f--planni n g to p lan .
Thu s it i s ne ce s sary 1 1
•
•
•
to
de f ine wh at bu sine s s the company i s or i s to b e in a nd
the kind o f company it i s or i s to be . .. 70
On ly.a fter
thi s de finition ha s b een accomp li she d , c an the hiera rchy
of ob j ec tives be e stabli she d .
6 9Anthony, p . 38 .
7 0Ib i d . , p . 2 5 .
33
r·
-
�
I
I
Ob j e ct iv e s
Q u inn dec la re s :
ob j e ct iv e s c o nt i nue s :
•
" Sett ing ove ra l l company
i s the vital fi rst step . ,7 1
He
" The purpose of long-term ob j e ctive sett i ng
i s to keep u s from mak ing sh ort -term de c i sions that w i l l
wreck the company in the future . " 7 2
Remember tha t we have dete rmi ned tha t ob j e c t iv e s
f orm a hierarchy from top to bottom w i thi n the orga n izat ion .
Th i s imp l ie s that ob j e c t ive s at different leve l s
should b e e s ta b l i s hed b y manager s a t diffe rent le ve l s .
T h i s imp l icat ion i s recog nized by Ma ce when he s tate s
that the ch ie f e xe cut ive ha s the r e spon s ibi lity for
supp lying " le ader ship in the e stab l i shment o f corpora te
ob j e c t iv e s . u7 3
The h ierarchy o f ob j e ct ive s also e xtends through
the t ime d ime ns i on .
Indeed , the re i s lit t le value i n
e s tabl i shing ob j ec t iv e s i f the t ime funct i on i s not to
be incorporated into the setting of ob j e c t ive s .
Support
for th is argume nt come s from 0 • Donne l l .
Wha t i s to be done i n the imme dia te yea r
mu s t provide a fou ndat ion for t he obj e ct ive s o f
7 1 Jame s B . Qu inn , " Long-range Pla nn ing o f
I ndustr i a l Re sear ch , " Ha rvar d B u s i ne s s Review , XXXI X
( Ju ly-Augu st , 196 1) , 8 8 .
7 2 Ib id . , p . 89 .
7 3My le s M . Ma ce , "The Pres ide nt and Corporate
P lann ing , " Harvard Bus i ne s s Rev iew , XLI I I ( January­
Februa ry , 1 9 6 5 ) , 5 0 .
··--·· ··· ·--·----------�---------·--------------
..... . ............._
--···---·------··--···--·---·------------·····-····--··------·
.J
...........
34
each succe s s ive year and this can only be
guarantee d if short -range p lan s are pa rt of
the long -ra nge p lans . 7 4
So w e s e e that the s e tting o f ob j ec tive s creates
a matr ix of a t least two d imen s ion s .
The matrix , how-
ever , ha s some c onstra int s imposed upon it .
The s e
c on s t ra i nt s ha ve been point e d out i n s ome o f the l imits
imposed on p lanning .
The fir st s tep o f the rat iona le cons i s t s of
e s tab l i shi ng t he obj ec t iv e s ma tr ix within the con strain t s
o f the organizati on's re s our c e s a n d the environment a l
in f l exib ilities .
Upon complet ion o f the fi rst s tep , we
are ready to take the next step--devel oping the plans to
r e ach the obj e c t i ve s .
P lans and P lann ing
A lthough plan s and obj ective s a re de s c r ibed a s
individ ua l step s wi thin this rat iona le , in act ual fac t
there i s not thi s c lear cut separation be tween the two .
A s S t e i ne r write s :
11
•
•
•
they cannot be separate d from
the actua l p lann i ng proce s s it se l f .
The end s and means
of p l a nn ing c onti nuous ly re late i n a n iterative.
manner . .. 75
7 4cyr il O ' Donne l l , 1 1 P lanning Ob j ective s , ..
C a l i forn i a Management Review , VI (Winter , 1963 ) , 9 .
75 Ge orge A . S teiner , e d . , Manage rial Long-range
P la nning (New York: McGraw -Hi l l Book Comp any , I nc . ,
1 964) 1 P• 4 3 .
L��---�-- ---------�------------------ - -- -----
-----·---�-----------------------------------
35
r--··-1
!
. ,
.
. -- . --·
P la n s can a l s o be c on s idere d the matri x frame-
work in wh ich the ob j e ct ive s are embedde d .
The a lterna-
t i ve rout e s deve loped for rea ch ing future ob j ec tive s ,
a nd t he a lte rnat ive ob j e c t ive s deve l ope d in r e s ponse t o
t he uncerta inty factor of the future e nvi ronmen t s ,
constitute a sor t of th ir d dimen sion o f the mat r ix .
The con straint s and lim it s are the out er bou ndar ie s o f
the obj ec t iv e s -plan s mat r ix .
The more fu lly the obj e c tive s and plan s are
deve loped w ithin the se bounda r ie s , the more a dequat e . i s
t h e reali zation o f the ch ar acterist i c s e ar l ier a scribed
to long-range plann ing .
Onc e more , it must be s tre s se d that a p lan i s
not a one-time , s ta t i c event .
We are deal ing w ith a
pro ce s s , and t hi s p r oc e s s i s dynami c .
The importance
attached to "pr oce s s" is perhap s best i l lu strated by a
quot e from Warren:
II
•
it i s t he proce s s , the
mechani sm for p lanning , a nd not the p lan that i s o f
greate s t impor tance . .. 7 6
Th is le ads to the nece s s ity of creat ing a formal
sys tem for the p la nn ing e ffort .
i s pointe d up by Anthony :
Thi s ne e d for a system
"A sys tem fac ilitat e s a
7
proc.e s s ; it i s the me ans b y whi ch the proce s s occ ur s . 11 7
76 Warren
, p . 25.
7 7Anthony , p . 5 .
36
I t wou ld b e wel l to exami ne what the s ys tem doe s and wh o
i s re spon s ible fo r the s y stem func t ion s .
Sys t em
The sys tem s hould mainta in the p r oc e s s by which
the ob j e c tiv e s-pla n s mat rix come s i nto existence .
It
sho u ld'al so provi d e for monitoring the matr ix and the
per formance of the organizat i on i n . con formance to t he
matrix .
Take a c lo s er look at the ma trix conce pt .
fact shou ld b e except i ona l ly prominent .
One
Th i s i s the
re l at i onsh ip that ex i s t s among the ob j ectiv e s not on ly
i n the ve rti c a l port i on of the hie rarchy (operat i onal
g r oup up to the g ene ra l orga niz a t i on ob j e c tive s for now) ,
b ut al so along the hor izonta l (t ime d imen s i on) hie rarchy
of pre se nt to future ob j e ctiv e s for the var i ou s leve l s .
To uni fy both the vert ical a nd hor iz ont a l dimen s i on s
r equ ire s , a cc ording t o Ew ing tha t :
Top management should g iv e depar tments an d
div i s ions the opportunity t o s ubmit the ir own
"Bottom- up " planning he lps
plan s for growth .
a s sur e that much o f the impor tant wo rk w i l l be
done whe re the mos t spe c i fic knowl e dg e exi s t s . 7 8
Addit iona l support fo r th is be lie f c ome s from
Mac e , who states that "
7 8Ewing , p . 1 07 .
•
a ll key per sonne l have a
37
share in making th e planning funct ion real and meaning­
fu l . .. 7 9
I t i s readi ly se en that planning is.not done by
a n ind iv idual but is , r a the r , a sy stem that re quir e s the
e ffor t s of de c i sio n-makers a t a l l leve ls w ithi n the
organ i zat i on .
Fur ther , the s e de c i s ion-makers mu s t
f u rni sh informa t ion o n a c ont inu ing b a s i s , and the informa t i on mus t be kept curre nt a nd evalu at ed as each
dec i s ion point w ith in the sequent ial network is
approache d .
This upda t i ng a nd revis ion gener ate s a n othe r
dividend .
A s Char le s H . Percy , the j unior senat or from
I l l inoi s a nd f ormer pre s ident o f Be l l a nd Howe ll ,
c la ime d :
11 Looking ahead five year s from a c on sta nt ly
·mov ing c urren t date make s p la nn ing for the imme dia te
12 -month per io d e a s ie r . . . so
To ach ieve one o f our 11 people 11 bene fit s , the
eva lu at ion of ob j e ct iv e s , p lan s , informa t i on , and planning shou l d be per forme d by a group .
Th i s w il l s e rve to
famil iarize a wider area w ithi n the orga nizat ion with the
plann ing proce s s an d i t s re sult s .
7 9Myl e s M . Mace , 11The Pre s ident a nd Corporate
Planning , .. Ha rvard Bus i ne s s Rev iew 1 XLII I (January­
February , 196 5) 1 53 .
· 8 0E . c. Bursk a nd D . H . Fenn1 Jr . , e d . , Plann ing
the Future Strategy of You r B u s ine s s (New York : McGrawH i l l Book Compa ny , I nc . , 195 6) , p . 21 .
"·�·--·------
--------·-----------------------------·--·-·· -··--- ·-·
·---
... --�··-·--- --------------·-·----·---·-·-·-··---··--·--------··-
. -------·-·-
38
r- --
1
-----
---
- ---
I
I
'
I
.
-- --------·----
For the same rea s on , a group ( pr e ferab ly not
'
I
I
I
--- · - - -
ident i c a l in compos it ion bu t inc lud ing some of the same
key membe r s )
sho u l d al so monitor the per formance of the
organ iz at ion .
Some of the are a s to be monitored have
b e e n i denti f ie d by Drucker .
eight are a s in wh ich Ob j e c t ive s of per­
formance an d r e s u lts have to be set : Market
s tan d ing ; innovat ion ; pro du c tiv i ty ; phy s ica l
a nd fi na nc i a l re source s ; profitab i l ity ; manager
pe r forma nc e and deve lopme nt ; worke r per formance
an d a tt it u de ; public re sponsib il ity . 8 1
•
•
•
The r e a re oth e r are a s which can be ident if ie d
but perhaps the mo s t important omis s ion i s t hat of people
as a r e s ourc e .
Withou t thi s par t icular re source , the
p lann ing pa ttern--and th i s i s wha t is nec e s sary-- i s inc omplete .
Pattern under l ie s the entire p lanning e ffort .
Thi s i s evide nt from Wiener ' s de scr ipt i on of a pattern
as
11
•
•
•
e s s ential ly an arrangement characte rized by
the order of the e lement s of wh ich it is ma de , rather
tha n by the int ri n s ic nat ure of s uch e lement s
•
•
•
di s t rib uted i n t ime . .. 82
Aero space
The aer ospace indu s t ry has some a ddit ional
8 1Peter F . Drucker , The Prac t i ce o f Management
( New York: Harper & Brother s , Pub l i she r s , 19 54 ) , pp . 6 2 - ;
87.
8 2 Norbert Wiener , The Human Use o f Human Being s
( Bo ston , Ma s s . : Houghto n-Miffli n Compa ny , 1 9 5 0 ) , p . 3 .
-
L---�--�---
-
--·----
-
---------
j
-----,----·-- -·--·------------------------ ----�-----------------·--·-··----------
39
con strai nt s imposed upon it .
The s e addit ions w i l l be
ide nt ified a nd the ir impac t on the long- rang e pla nn ing
proc e s s d i s cu s se d i n the next chapter .
I
··------ ------·- -----·-····-· -�-------·--·-···-···--
... ·----
-·--- ....
·------·-- --- ------ ·----·-·
- -----· -------·-----··-·· ····--- ·····-
CHAPTER I I
LONG-RANGE P LANNING IN THE AEROSPACE
. I NDUSTRY
The term " aerospace , " a s used here in , may more
proper ly be re stric t e d to the space por t ion of the
aerospace i ndus try .
The remarks ma de , and the prob lems
d i sc u s se d , can be con s i dere d a spe cia l case w ith in the
ge ner al f ie ld o f aerospace indu stry .
Long-range plann ing in aero spa ce industry i s
s ub j ect t o two c onstra int s which are no t imposed upon
organizat i ons in othe r i nd us tr ie s .
-
-
The fir st of the s e con stra ints i s c aused by the
ex i ste nce o f a severe ly l imited marke t .
The Un it ed
Stat e s Governme nt , through it s va rio us age n cie s , ab sorb s
mo s t of the output of the _ indu stry .
In the space port ion,
the Governme nt re pre sent s pra c t ic a l ly the entire marke t .
The s econd constraint is imposed by the nat ure
of the ind u s t ry' s pr oduct .
Aga in , the empha s i s is on
the space por t io� of the indu stry .
The market pote nt ia l
_
i s de f ined by th e Fe dera l budge t a l locat ions and identifie d , ultimat e ly , a s mi s s io:t1 re qu irement s .
The mis s ion
requ ireme n t s are then trans la te d i nto spe c i f ic hardwa re
items .
The sa le s e ffort i s the n , of ne ce s s ity , custome r
40
41
a nd product oriente d .
Let u s exami ne th e e ffect o f the market cons t ra int on the long-range pla nning proc e s s .
Market C on s tra int
Many of the u s ual ma rke t ing te chnique s do not
r e a lly a pply to the ma rke t ing prob lems of aero space
i ndustry .
Adve r t i s i ng
The ba s ic ob j e ct ive of a dve rt i si ng i s , it has
been pos tulate d :
"To pre se nt i nformat ion about a
pr oduc t , arou se intere st , build de s i re , a nd get consumers
i n a favorable frame of mi nd to try the product . " 1
S ince
we are dea l ing with a monop sony , or , at best , a limit e d
o l igops ony , the norma l type of a dve rt i sing cannot be
expe cted to be e ffe c t iv e .
The mo st common form of adve r t i s ing in th i s
indu stry is ins t itut ional in na ture .
A lthough a
speci fic pro duct i s some t ime s ment ione d , more o ften the
t e chno log ical capab i l it y of the a dverti ser i s stre s se d .
Th i s technologi cal capab i l it y i s al so extended to both
the s a le s e ffort and t he cu stomer .
lE uge ne J . Ke l le y , . Marke t ing :
Strategy and
Funct ions ( Eng lewood C l iffs , N . J . :
Pre nt i c e -Ha l l , Inc . ,
1 9 6 5) 1 P • 9 6
o
42
Sa le s E f fort
The sale s e ffor t fo r the te chnologic a l capabi l i ty
mu s t be planne d aro und t echni c a l ly capab le ind iv idu a l s .
The sa le s team , and it is a team e f fort , c on s i s t s of a
group of int er d i s c ipl inary s c ient i st s and e ng ine e r s .
S ince the mis s ion requi re ment s exi s t , the e f fort
i s to c onvi nc e the 11 gov ernme nt 1 1 team tha t the organi za­
t ion ha s both the t echn ical a n d ma nag e r ia l capa c i ty to
produce the fu nct ional ha rdware .
The cost -schedule ­
per fo rma nce tra de off tr iangle mu st c learly ind icate , to
the c ompany • s bene fit , c omprehe n s ion of the mi s s ion and
the appr oache s nece s sary to it s succe s s ful complet ion .
Cus tomer
The e a sy i dent ificat ion of the c u s tomer i s not
w ithout it s ha z a rd s .
The c u stome r te am is probab ly a s
te chni c al ly capable a s the se l le r • s team and ha s one
e normous advant age not a va i lable to mo s t c u s tome r s --the
ava i labi l it y of proposals from oth e r compet itor s fo r
c ompa r i son a nd eva lua t ion .
Th i s factor , a lone , i s
s u f f ic ie nt t o require the market ing approa ch t o - be more
th an u s ua l ly sens i t ive to te chnology and compet it ion .
I f c ompany A i s not aware of c ompany B ' s techn ica l
capab i lity , company A may find it s e l f unab le t o c ompe t e
in certain te chnolog i c a l are a s .
Fortunate ly , cu stomer a nd compe t i tor s fo r a
43
g i ven miss ion are ge ne rally e a sy to identi fy .
The
opportuni ty fo r i n-depth ana l y s i s and e val ua t ion of bo th
i s pre s e nt , and fai lu re to do so can b e c ons ide red a
ma nageme nt failur e .
Othe r Func t i ons
Othe r marke t ing func t i on s-- d i st r ibut ion ,
pr i c ing , e t cetera--wi l l requ i re far le s s plann ing
e f for t than i s norma l ly devote d t o the s e are a s in o the r
i nd us tri e s .
There are few middl eme n a nd the Fe dera l
b u dget cons tra ints are , w ithin l imit s , fa irly we ll
de fine d .
No att empt has been ma de to spe l l out in deta i l
al l the rami fication s of the ma rket con stra int .
The
ba s ic e ffe ct o n the ob j e c t ive s -plans matr ix is to re duce
the number of a lt e r nate ob j e c t iv e s and plan s ava i lable .
Th i s means that the rema in ing ob j ect ive s and plans mu s t
be mor e thoroughly de fine d and eva luate d .
Ther e ar e ot her e f fe c t s on the matrix .
The se
oc c u r from the nature of t he product i t se lf .
Product Con s tra int
Dr . Robert S cha irer , A s s is tant Director of the
Deve.lopme nt P l ann ing Department o f Lockhe e d A ircra ft ,
ha s de scrib e d the indus try • s produc t s a s 1 1 • •
•
typically
very c omplex , highly engi neere d , prod uced in re lat iv e ly
44
.
2
sma ll numbe r s , and s o ld to an extreme ly narrow market . "
Th i s s ugge st s s ome o f the co n stra int s impo s e d on longrange pla nn ing by the pr oduc t .
Complex ity
The comp lexit y of the product indicate s the
ne e d for advance d technological capab i l ity and a le ngthy
plann ing span .
Th i s is supporte d by Ste iner with the
statement that " The long deve lopmen t-produ ct ion cyc le
of the typic a l modern weapon sys tem has increa s ing ly
l imited the va lue of annual budget i ng a s a pla nn ing
t oo l .
"3
The hor izonta 1 ( time ) d ime n s ion o f the
ob j ective s-plans mat r ix i s thus increased in both
complex i ty and le ngth .
Coupled with , and supporting ,
the spe c i fic product ob j ec t ive s , i s a web of re search
an d deve lopment obj e ctiv e s and plans .
Thi s web mu s t
re late t o the organ iz a t io n ' s te chno logy stance , the
curre nt and fore c a s t m is s ion requ ireme nt s , an d the
expected techno log i c a l capab i l it ie s of t he compet it ion .
Qua l ity an d Qua nt ity
The hi gh ly eng ineered char acter of the product
i s a re fle c t i on of the qual ity a nd re l iab il ity requ ire me nts .
Th is e f for t , together with th e te chno log i ca l
..
2 George A . Ste iner , e d . , Manager ial Long-range
Plann ing ( N,ew York: McGraw-H i l l Book Company , I nc . , 1964) , !
p. 266 .
3 Ib id .
I
p • 19 9
•
45
requirement s , i s i nd i cative of the cost , in time and
r e s ource s , of each item of hardwa re .
Not unexpe ctedly , the s e co st s fr eque ntly
de termine the quantity to be purcha se d by the proc ur ing
,
agenc y .
The c o s t s are genera lly high ; the qua nt it ie s
are u su a l ly low .
The se co s t s wo u ld appea r to be a
fu nct io n of the c urre nt st ate -of-the -art , and the amount
of te chnological deve lopment re quired to perform the
mi s s ion w ithin the time a l lowe d by the cu stomer .
He re i s o ne rough e stimate of the pla nn ing time
span requ i re d for util izat io n of advanced technology:
" A re c e nt McGraw-H i l l s tudy sugge sts that there i s an
ave rage lag of at lea st seven ye ars from the beg inn ing
o f re search
•
unti i the p ro duct i s ready . " 4
Obv iou s ly , i f th i s i s an ave rage , the actual plann ing
span should be considerab l y longe r .
In fa ct , many
c ompanie s are c ur rent ly foreca sting we ll into the fut ure
both pro duc t deve lopme n t and the t e ch nology advanc e s
nee de d t o support the deve lopment .
Typ ic a l of th ese i s
Thomp son-Ramo-Woolr
idge , Inc . , a nd the ir Probe 5
�
te chnique .
4 Ame r ica n Mana geme nt A s soc iat ion , P lann ing Ahead
for · prof it s , Report No . 3 ( New York :
Am er i can Manage ­
ment A s sociat ion , 1 9 58 ) , p . 110 .
5 " New Pro duc t s :
Sett ing a T imetab le , " Bus ine s s
Week , May 2 7 , . 19 6 7 , pp . 5 2 -6 1 .
46
Probe
The techn ique cons i s t s o f ident i fying new
produc t s and e st imat i ng th e t ime when the y are expe cte d
to be marke t -ready .
The t ime span covered i s ro ughly
from the pre se nt to the year 2 0 0 0 .
Hav ing identi fie d
the pr od uc t s , the marke t - t ime , and the c ompa ny in ter e s t ,
t he next s tep wa s to d e f ine the areas of technological
deve lopme nt requ ire d .
Th is was fol lowed by deve loping
a ne twork ( similar to a PERT cha rt)
of te chnologi cal
eve nt s and the chronology of the ne twork .
The f ina l
s tep wa s the deve lopment of plan s fo r reaching th e
ob j e ctive s .
Nee dle s s �o s ay , this technique i s iterat ive
in natur e .
The t ime ha s come to examine the impact of the s e
constra int s o n the l ong- ran ge pla nning proce s s .
Charac t e r i s t i c s
The impact o n t he " T ime -re late d " cha racte r i st ic
ha s a lready b e e n empha s ized .
The network ment i oned
above is a good indica t ion o f the way in wh i ch te chno logy :
extend s the t ime re lat ionship o f pla nn ing .
To be " Env ironmental ly O r ie nte d " in aero space
industry , i s to consider the po l it ic al a nd social imp l i ­
cat i ons of the futur e a nd their e ffect o n mis s ion r e ­
qui reme nt s .
The se req u iremen t s , in turn , must be
e xamine d fo r the ir e ffect on t he long-ra nge ob j e ct ive s
47
o f the organiz a t ion .
The capab i l ity of compe t it or s
b ecome s paramount i n eva luati ng the env ironment .
The rate o f technologi ca l chang e make s it
mandator y that incre ased atte ntion be g i ven the
characteri stic wh ich has been de scrib e d a s be ing
" Env ironment al ly Re spon sive . . .
The deve lopment o f
a lternat ive plans i s ne c e s sary to cov er many "wha t- i f "
c ont ingencie s and t o prevent t echnolog i ca l ob sole s ce nce
from becoming a b u i lt-in r e sult o f an inadequate
plann ing proce s s .
Becau se of the change s in the te chnologi c a l
e nv ironment , the charac ter i st ic of " F lexib i l i t y " mus t
be b u i lt into the planning proc e s s at al l leve l s .
Th i s
i s a l s o nece s sary beca u s e of the chang ing le vel o f
funding availab l e from yea r t o yea r--a refle c t ion of the
g ene r a l ec onomic and pol it i c al environment .
Th i s re ­
qui rement i s more s tr ingent fo r the aero spa ce compa ny ,
s i nc e the exter na l e nv ironmenta l var iab le s are le s s
s u s ceptible o f cont ro l tha n they are normal ly be l ieved
to be by othe r indu s t r ie s .
The "Un struc t ure d " cha r acter i s t i c pre se nt s a
pr ob lem u
The planni ng t ime span i s greater and shou ld
lea d to le s s s truc t uri ng .
Opposed to th i s is the
narrow ,market and r ap i d ob s ole scence of t echno logy ,
which c a lls for g reater str�cturi ng .
The tradeo ffs for
this characte r i st ic requ ire more de ta i le d ana lys i s and
48
a l ternat ive ident ific at ion and eva l ua t i on a
A s we did earl ier , let us look at the e ffe ct of
these c onstra int s on s ome l imit s of long- range p lanning .
Limit s
I t i s quite apparent that the hierarchy of
premi s e s --non-cont ro l l ab le , semi-control lab le , control­
l ab le - - show s a pronounced shift in the direct ion of the
non-control lab le .
Th is fo l low s log ica lly enough from
the i ncrea sed pre s s ure exerted by the exte rnal e nv iron­
me nt on the aerospace f ir m .
Thi s pre s sure cons i st s
pr ima ri ly of the s ingle purcha s ing source and , t o a
s l i ght ly le s ser extent , o f the t echno logica l nature of
the produc t .
" Rapid ity of Chang e s " ha s bee n s u ff ic ie ntly
stre s sed a nd requ ire s no further di scu ss ion .
" Externa l Inflexib i l it ie s , " a s stated , re fle ct
the external e nv i ronment and are l e s s sub j e c t to control
by aerospace companie s tha n by other indu s tr i e s .
11 I nt ern a l Infl exib i l i ties " are not qua l itat ive ly
d i ffere nt from tho se experie nced by fi rms in other
indus trie s .
The quan t itative d ifference wh ich exi sts
is d i ffic ult t o eva luate .
It may , pos s ibly , be caused
by the greater numbe r , re lat iv e ly speak i ng , of techn ic­
al ly oriente d and tra ined pe rson s in aero space man age ­
men t .
49
Becau se of the depth of an alys i s , the c omplex ity
o f the ob j ec t iv e s -plans mat r ix , and the l e ngth o f t ime
o f the developme nt -pro duct cyc le , the " T ime and Expense "
l imit r equir e s mo re carefu l study by aer ospace planner s .
Bene fits
The b e ne fi t s de r i ve d from long-range p lann i ng . by
aero space orga niz ations ar e ident ical to those of any
indus try .
The fact t hat the pro ce s s i s more d i f ficult
for the aerospace indus try wo u l d seem to make the benef it s more d i ffic u lt of achieveme nt .
The impact o f the con stra int s up on the longrange planning rat iona le shou ld now be apparent
•
.
Rat i onale
Det e rmini ng t he company ob j ec t ive s , althou gh
sti l l the nece s sary firs t s tep , i s more d i ffic u lt fo r
an aero spa ce c omp any .
Th i s dif f icu lt y i s a re s u lt of
the inte racti ons of the non-c ont ro l lab le a spect of the
environment , the uncertai nt y of the extent and t iming of
technologic a l cha ng e a nd innova t ion , and the l ack of
info rm at ion c onc e rn i ng ac tua l an d potential compe ti t or s •
capab i l it ie s .
The t ime dimens ion of the ma t r ix extends fur the r
int o the fu t ure than d oe s the same dimens i on for mos t
oth e r ind ustr ie s .
The re i s mor e unc e rtainty dur ing th i s
time d ime ns ion because o f the direct depe ndency o n the
50
r·----· -- ----------- -- --··- - -- ------------··--
I
g ove rnment .
- - - - ·-· ···- ···--·-··--· -- ------·--·-·-·- ·--- -··- ------__
.
_______ _ _ _ .. _ _ _
__ __ __ __ __
Coping with t he c u s tomer ' s _ t echnical team
mu st be more c are fully planne d for than in mos t othe r
c ircumstanc e s .
The number. and importance of the dec i s ion node s
i s far gre ater than e nc o unt ered el sewher e .
is a func tion o f technology a nd t ime .
Th i s number
The informat ion
re qui re d i s more d�tailed an d i ts cyc le time r edu ce d .
E s sent ia l ly , the rat iona le for aerospace lo ng­
range planning is not rea lly un ique .
I t s d ifference
l ie s in the fac t that it i s more diff icu lt and must
re ly more on an i nte grated e ffort by a ll leve l s of both
People are mo re
te chnical an d manag eme nt pe r sonne l .
important to the proce s s .
People are al so the mo s t important re s ou rce of
an aerospace o rgan iz at ion .
Much ha s bee n written of
th e requi reme n t s for manag e r s in indu st ry .
I n aerospace
firms , the te chnic al manpower requ ireme nt s are s ingularly
importan t and mus t be p lan ne d .
Mo st plann ing i s c arried out at the product
le vel .
But , a s Sc ott pos it s :
" .
•
•
it i s a lway s u s e -
f u l t o carry i ndu str ial c la s si f ic a t ions accordi ng t o
pro duct l ine s and pr oce s s e s to higher leve l s o f
ab s trac t ion . " 6
The highe r le ve l o f abstrac t ion , in
6 B rian W . Scott , Long -range P lanning in Ame r i c a n
Indu s try ( New Yor k:
Ame ri can Mana geme nt A s soc ia t ion ,
1965) 1 P • 91 .
51
thi s ins tance , i s te chnology .
S cott aga in :
11 Even though a s pe c i f i c te chno-
l ogica l a dvance ma y appe ar to be 11 di sc ont inuou s 11 in
re lati on to past deve lopme nts , it is us ual ly b a s e d on
an accumu lation
•
•
•
in the pa rticu lar s ub j ect are a . 1 1 7
P lanni ng-Programming-Budget ing System
The compat ib i l i ty of the long-range p la nn ing
ra t io na le deve l ope d in thi s , and the pr eceding chapte r
( w ith the P la nn ing-Programming -Budgeting Sys tem deve lope d
by the Committee for Economic Deve lopment )
recogni zed .
can be ea s i ly
The Committee stre s s e s goa l s , ob j e ct ive s ,
t ime-phas e d plans ( ident i f ie d by the Committee a s
pr ograms ) , and mea sure s o f co st-bene f it and cost­
e ffectivene s s .
8
The f ir st mea sure s the resou r c e s
expe nded w ith r e s u l t s l ike ly to b e ob tai ne d .
The se cond
c ompar e s the re sou r c e use of the var i o u s al ternat iv e s in
ac comp l i shing an ob j e c tive .
A e rospa ce Manpowe r
The technologica l capab i lit i e s o f an organizat ion i
do not r e s i de in labo rator ie s o r equ ipme nt o r file s .
The se c apab ilitie s , a nd the cont inu ity o f t hem , ex i st in
7 rbid . , p . 129 .
8 committee for E c onomi c Deve lopme nt , B udge t ing
for Nat ional Obj e c t ive s , A Statement by the Re search and
P o l icy Committee , New York , Jan uary , 1966 .
--�-- -------- -----�------ � -- - - · - -
-�- -
--
-
-
-
- --- ----- - -
- - ------- - - - -
-
-- ----- -
--�
-
-- -
-
-- -- -
52
pe ople .
Thu s we come to the real pro blem .
The prob lem i s caused by the f act that the
c apab i lit y of a n aerospace organizat ion con s i st s , in
re a l ity , o f te chno logy , no t har dware .
The qua lity and
quantity of an or ganization ' s te chnic a l ly trai ned man­
power are the true mea sures of its c apab i l it y t o mee t
the cu stomer ' s needs .
The requ ir ement s of aerospace
manpower p lanning wi l l be deve l oped .
r·--
---····
. . .---------------� ----·------·-------·- ....
---
-
I
CHA PTER I I I
AERO SPACE MANPOWER PLANNING REQUI REMENTS
11 I ndu stry ha s devot ed a great deal of time ,
e ffort , and mone y to the study of e conomic i nflue nc e .
•
•
•
thi s same time and e f fort have not been expe nded
to s t udy manpower foreca st ing . .. l
Wendel W. Burton o f
Minne sota Mining a nd Manu facturing ma de the pr� ceding
sta teme nt .
Unfortunate ly , he the n pr oceede d to
corre late s a le s dol lar s to manpower requ irements and
a s s e rted that the re su lts were s ati s fac tory for planning
p urpose s .
Aerospa c e management wou ld b e rather re luct ant
to spend money on manpower p lanni ng unle s s the ne ed for
s uch p lanning prove d ev iden t �
A s stated earlie r , the
produc t of any aer ospace c omp any i s the re s u lt of an
extreme ly soph i s t icated technology a nd thi s technology
c an be devel op ed on ly by a suffic i ent number of te chnica l ly tra ine d ind ividua l s .
The inference shou ld not be
made that me r e quantity is the c r iterion .
The qual ity
o f the ind iv idual and the adequacy of his tra ini ng are
lDavid W . Ew ing , e d . , Long-range P la nning for
Mana gement ( New York:
Harper & Brot hers , Pub l ishe r s ,
1 9 5 8 ) 1 P• 2 2 8 .
L_______.._______________________,_______....
53
54
.I
I
1,
r··- ..
•
-
a l s o factor s for evalua t i on .
However , we ar e de a lin9
not wit h indiv idual s but with the c o ntribut ion o f a
te chnologica l sk i l l at a certa in le ve l of c apab i l it y .
Some indication o f the increa s i ng ne ed for th i s
type of e ffort i s p re se nte d i n the manpower fore ca s t for
the A ircraft and Mi s s ile indu st ry deve lope d in 1960 by
Murray L. We idenbaum .
Manpower pe rcent age s are :
1954
8%
Managerial
1959
--
--
1965
1970
10%
1 2%
13 %
Technical
13
13
20
22
Industria l
64
48
33
29 2
The expe c te d cha nge i n the re lat ionships o f the
manpower requ i rement s ce rtainly sub stant iat e s the grow ing
c omp lexity of the pro du c t .
The incre a s i ng pre ponderance
of manage r ia l and technical per sonne l--much more di ffic u lt to obtai n a n d ret a i n than industr ial personne l--is
pe r sua s ive evidence o f t he ne e d for technical ma npower
pla nning .
Thi s i s no t an a ttempt to denigra t e the
manager ia l requ i rement s .
The mana ger of a techno log ical
function i s , usua l ly , a forma l ly traine d te chnolog i s t ,
a nd may be c on s i de re d only a s p o s s e s s ing an addit ional
ski ll .
2 J . A . Stockfi sch , e d . , Plann ing and Fore c a s t ing
in t he Defen s e Indu s tr i e s Belmo nt , Calif . : Wad sworth
Pub l i sh ing Compa ny , I nc . , 1 9 6 2 ) , p . 1 6 1 .
(
,_
__
----·---- ---------------
---- ------
-
--
----- ------- -------------------- --------- -------------------------- ------------ - - - - ------
55
r· -----· ·-
.
- - - - · · - -···-·· ··-·· · · · - · · · .. ··· -··- -···-···· · .
--· · · - . - - -
..
A s has been noted , empha s i s ha s been give n t o
the space por t ion of the aero space indus try .
The
great e r techno log i c a l capab i lity requi re d in the space
!
.
area i s one reas o n for t h i s empha s i s .
Anothe r rea son
i s pre s e nt e d by E . J . Richards i n hi s proj ect ion of A ir
Force Expend iture s .
Spa ce
1960
1965
1970
19 . 2%
3 1 . 0%
4 4 . 2 %3
The anti c ipate d change in the expend i ture
pattern for the A ir For ce wou ld seem to predic t a large r
marke t for the spac e e ffor t in the future .
When an or gan iz ati on ' s pr inc iple ob j ective s have
bee n de termine d to be in the space indus try , the next
le ve l of ob j ective s w il l de fi ne the type of m i s s ion requireme nts the f ir m wi l l s eek to s a t is fy .
The mi s s ion
requ irement s w i l l ind i cate the pr o duct l in e s and the
main technologi c a l f i e ld s i n wh ich a c apab i lity mus t
ex i st .
Analy s i s of a given techno log y reve a l s that the
fi e ld co n s i s t s o f a certa in group o f technical sk i l l s .
Th is approach appea r s to be the b a s i s for almo s t a l l
aero-space techn ic a l manpower planning .
Scott a ttribute s
a larg e port iqn of The Mart.in Company • s post World War I I
.
3 Ibid . , p . 2 0 7 .
-
··------------------·- - ------·-·--
· - - - ------------- - - ···- ------- ------- -·--··---------·------····---------------------_,/
56
r
I
··-- ·
------·---·-··
.
succe s s to th i s a pproach .
'
Fir st ,
ab i l it y t o de termine th e ba s ic
nature an d ski l l s of t he fi rm an d to relat e
[ them ] to the e nv i ronme nta l nee d s o f the t ime .
Second ,
[ the ab i l it y to ] anti c ipate
the mainstream of t echno log ic al progr e s s
[ a s ] re late d to
pre s ent sk i l ls . 4
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
E . D . Fo s t e r , Vice Pre s ident Economic P lanning
fo r Radio Corp orat i on o f Ame r ica , ha s s tate d :
" Per s on ne l
sk i l l s and abi l it ie s mus t b e examine d to determine how
the y can mo st e ffec t ive ly be uti l iz ed
or der ly attainmen t o f the ob j e ct iv e s s et . " 5
say s :
to a s s ur e
H e later
" They are going to re -eva luate our ent ire manpowe r
s it uat ion every ye ar . "
6
The fir st problem t ha t occurs in aerospace
technic al manpower pla nning is the d e f init ion and
ide nt i f icat ion o f the various technic al ski l l s o f the
re r sonne l .
Skil ls
We have me nt ione d earlier that the hierarchy of
ab s t rac t ion i s , roughly , mi s s ion , to product , to te chno l ogy , to sk i l l .
To illustr ate the hierarchy , le t us
4B r ian w. Scott , Long-range P lanning in Amer ic an
Amer i ca n Manageme nt A s s o c iat ion ,
Industry ( New York :
19 6 5 ) 1 P e 2 4 7
•
5Amer ican Management A s so c ia t i on , P lanning Ahe a d
for Pro f it s , Report No . 3 ( New York : American Management
As soc iat ion , 1 9 5 8 ) , p . 3 3 .
6 rbi d . , · p . 4 6 .
------------·-- -·-·--· --------· · ·------- ------··--- -..·-···-----·---------·------- ..
;
;
I
·--·---·-------__j
I
57
Mi s s ion--so ft- la nd
a vehi c le on the Moon and tele v i s e pictur e s of the Lunar
s u r face back to Earth .
Product--deve lop a power supply
for the te levi s io n system .
or c onvert e nergy .
Techno logy-- s tore , gene rate ,
Ski l l--requ ired in battery de s ign ,
fue l ce l l s , thermoe le c t r ic , a nd thermionic device s .
Another featur e o f the h i erarchy i s the increa se
in a lter native s a s we pr oceed down the la dder from
mi s s io n to sk i l l .
A l l of the ski l l s are requ i red in
order to perfo rm the eval ua t ion o f the alte rnat ive s-tradeoff s t ud ie s .
Due r ecog n it ion shou ld a lso be given
the incre a s i ng role playe d by so ftware requ i rements in
the spa c e bu s i ne s s .
He r e too , the accent is on in cr� a s -
ing sophisti cat i on , a nd t echno log ical ski l l s must keep
pa ce ..
A fter the de finit ion and ident if icat ion of
ski l l s have b e e n accomp l ishe d , the ba s e l ine for he re -andnow , t he next prob lem area is re ad i ly ide nt i f iab le .
Long-ra nge technic a l manpower p lanni ng is only one area
in wh ich long -range p lann ing is done .
Like all such
e ffort i t s hou ld p o s se s s the same character i s t ic s .
T ime Re late d
The totality of i ndivi dual ski l l s mu st ma tch ,
at each point in t ime , the ob j e c t ive s -p lan s s ituat ion
expected to exi s t at that time .
.
.
. --�- -------------·------------·--
.
Thi s re qu irement mean s
i
_,_____________ -------�-·- - - - -------- - - - - - -------------- ----------- ------��)
58
1
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:
:
:
:
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:
:::
:
:::
k
:
:
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s
s
f depart Ure ,
s
Fir s t , the a s s ignment o f e ach sk i l l t o each
ex i s t ing a nd e xpe cted program mus t be ma de .
i
The t ime s
dur ing wh i ch the ski l l w i l l be unav a i lab le f or other
as s ig nme nt mu s t a l so be r e corde d .
Th i s d i s c lo se s the
di f ference betwe e n the re sour c e expected to be avai lab le
and that requir ed during the p l ann ing per io d .
( It
sho u ld b e real i z e d that i nd i vidual s usually have more
tha n one ski l l .
This sugge s t s that there shou ld be a
pr i ority of a s s i gnment b a sed on c r it ic a l i ty o f ski l l ,
an d tha t a s s ignment of an ind ividual shou ld res ult in
th e w i thdrawa l o f a l l of h i s ski l l s from the ava i labi l ity poo l . )
Second , the re m � s t be deta ile d plann ing to
acquire the ski l l s no t ava i lable a s require d .
Thi s
p la nning shou ld encompa s s tra ini ng ; hiring , a nd the
pos s ible u s e of cons ultant s .
Third , the exce s s indiv idual s whose ski l l s ar e
not re qu i re d for one r e a s o n or anothe r--ob so le s cence ,
ob j e ctive chang e s , et cetera-- shoul d be inc lud ed in the
p la nn ing .
S ince c ont inu i ty i s a much sought a fter state
of a ffair s , p la nn ing for these ind iv id ua l s might
spe c i fical ly include train ing .
To support the above , i ntegration of deta iled
schedu les . become s mandato ry .
I n fact , the leve l o f
- --- -- -------·-----�---�----- -.-�--·· --- �·-····-------� ------ �------�-�--- -�---�--------..----------------
J
_._!
59
de tai l requ ired s ugge sts that thi s portion of the
planning p r oce s s be fully au tomate d .
Environment ally Oriented
I t i s unne c e s sary to belabor thi s a spect of the
planning prob lem .
I f the t e chnical manpower p lanning
is not so oriented , the ident i fication of the ski l ls
r equired a nd the i r avai labi lity wi l l match on ly by
Le aving thing s to chance is a non- surv ival
c ha nce .
a t t it u de in the compe t i t ive wor l d of the aero space
indu stry .
A l l re sour c e s mus t be u se d both e ffect ive ly
and effic i ently to s u rv ive in th is c ompet it i on .
Env iro nmental ly Re spon s ive
Here t oo , survival is at stake .
The he avy
technologica l invo lveme nt o f aero spa ce firm s make s the
pace of change far more rapid tha n in other i ndustrie s .
To protect the ma s s iv e inv e s tme nt nee ded to support th i s
te chnology requi r e s that the planning func t ion be
except ional ly se�s it ive t o chang e s in technolog i cal ,
economic , so c ia l , an d polit ical e nv ir onment s .
Integra�
t i on o f manpower and market pla nning mus·t be c lose and
cont inuou s .
The devel opment o f a very den s e th ird dime n s i on
. of the obj ec t iv e s -plan s matr ix shou ld be expected .
Th i s
i s cau sed by the occurre n ce of s o many "wha t - i f "
:
L
s ituat i on s .
( The me nt ion of gravity nul l if icat ion i s
-----····---- ------------------·-· ··------ -···· ·-·- --- - · - - - - --------------------·····----- -------------······---·--·--···
i
....1
60
of s i tuat ion . )
F le x ib i lity
The pre c e di ng , with the s ugge st ion of a lternat i ve s , and the ready re spons e to the e nvir onmen t , len d
c r e dence to the be l ie f tha t the manpower pla nning
l
!
func t ion " st ay loos e . 11
I f , as we bel ieve , technica l
·
.
manpower is the aerospace organ izat io n ' s pr ime resource ,
then flexib i l i ty of both p lans and plann ing become s o f
paramount importan ce .
The s o lution t o this prob lem are a
l i e s in the r e f inement and s tructure of the a lternat ive s
--the de c i s ion tree- -to increa se the numbe r of dec i s ion
node s and force the maki ng of more increment a l de c is ions
in the decis ion-making seque nce .
Un structured
The comments ma de in Chapter I I about th i s
characte r i st ic app ly e qu a l ly we l l .
The same detai le d
ana lys i s and alt e rnat ive ident i f i c at ion and eva lua t ion
i s ne ce s s ary t o a l le viate the u ns truct u red nature o f
the f utur e .
Ba s ic Prob lem
There i s one ba s ic p r ob lem area whi ch ha s not
bee n d iscu s sed .
Meye r Ke stnbaum has s tated th i s problem .
11 Every bu s ine s s is intere sted in find ing supe r ior people ,
i
L- ------ ------ ------ ----·-··-------···--
�
····-- - ·------··--- ·-----·---- --·--·----- ···- -·-·------·-------- ------- ---····---
�
61
-
-
but
-
�
t�� �: �
r e not e nough super ior pe ople to go around . " 7
The only solution to t hi s pr ob lem i s to de s ig n the
intern a l e nv ironment to be more attrac t iv e to superior
peop le than are the compe tito rs ' .
f i rm mu st be pe cp l e-oriente d .
Th is me ans that the
This w i ll promote , at
le a s t in manpow er plann ing , int erna l flexib ilit y .
A e r o spa ce Manpower P lann ing
Havi ng ide n t ifie d the ma j or aero space manpower
p lanni ng prob lem areas a nd indicated the so lut i on s , le t
u s examine some c u rr ent prac t ic e s in the indus try .
7 E . c . Bursk and D . H . Fenn , Jr . , e d . , P lann ing
the Future Strategy of Your Bus ine s s ( New York : .McGraw ­
Hi l l Book Company , Inc . , 1 9 5 6 ) , pp . 4 6 -4 7 .
--- --·--·""'"-·--·-·_j
- �- -------- -------- ---- ·--·------� - --·-�----..--·-------·------ ..------------·------..
CHAPTER IV
CURRENT AEROSPACE MANPOWER PLANNING
PRACTICE S
Recogn it ion o f the t echni ca l manpower planning
prob lem ex ists w ith in the indu stry .
Proof of th is is
fou nd in the formation of the Eng i neering Admin i strat ive .
Confe rence grou p .
Th is group ana lyz e s the prob lems en-
c ounte re d in Eng inee r i ng Admini strat io n and i s sue s
confident ia l re por t s o� the methods u se d in a ttemp t ing
to s olve the se prob lems .
The data and information pre sented in th is
ch apter , unle s s o the rwi se spe c i fic a l ly ident i f ie d , are
from a Report to the E leventh Con fe renc e . 1
Contrib ut ing
the da ta were th e fo l lowing companie s and the ir
d iv i s i ons :
Boe ing --Aerospace , A irpla ne , Ve rto l ;
Dougla s--Mi s si le s and Spa c e , A ircra ft ; Gene ra l Dynamic s-Pomona , Fort Worth , San Die go ; · Goodye ar--Aer ospace ;
Gr umman A ircraft ; Hughe s A ir c ra ft ; Lockhe ed--Ca l i for nia ,
Georgia ; Ling-Temco -Vought --A stronaut ic s , Aer onaut i c s ;
l J . c . Duffendack , Jr . and R . F . Jewe tt ,
Predi c t ing Engineer ing Manpower Nee ds , A Report to the
E l e ve nth Engi neering A dminis trat ive Confer ence , Burbank ,
Ca l ifo rn ia , Apri l , 1 96 6 .
62
63
I
Mart in
��B=�:i�ore ,
De nver , Or lando ; McDonne ll
�:r�
raft ;
North Amer ican A ircraft ; Northrop--Nora i r .
S inc e the data are c o n f i dential , no name s w i l l
be u s e d in pre s ent ing or di sc u s s ing the c onte nt s o f the
rep or t .
I n Chapt e r I I I , al l te chn ica l manpower plann ing
wa s de scrib e d as be i ng depe ndent upon the e s tabli shment
of a skil l s b a s e l ine .
The twe nty-one repor t i ng div i s ion s
a cknowle dge th is t o a ce rta i n extent .
Ski l l s
A t the t ime o f the report , s ixtee n of the twentyone foreca st re qu ir ement s by sk il l s , and fo ur of the
remain ing five were p re par ing t o do so w ithi n the same
yea r .
Thi s writer wa s p r iv i l eged to re ceive a compre-
h en s ive b r ie f ing a fter the succe s s fu l installat ion of
North Amer ica n A viat i on • s Qua l if i ca ti ons I nvent or y
The Program c on s i s t s o f two pa r t s .
Program .
1.
r e lat ing to :
The Employee Pro fi le co nta in s in format i on
formal e d uc at ion ;
spe c ial training ;
fore ign languag e s ; spe c ial a chi evement s s uch a s · pub l icat ions , patent s , and pro fe s s ional s oc ie t y memb er ship ;
mi l it ary service , out s ide int er e st s ; det a i l s of work
experie nce a t North Amer ica n Aviat ion a nd the three
mo st recent p revio us e mployer s .
In addition to this
background in forma t ion , proficienc y re port s and
I
.
'"----------,.----------·-•--••-�•··••·- �··---·-¥-··-----�--··•-----·- ---·-·�----· ---r--•�-----·�· -----·-··-•··--• ----.i
·."'
64
r--·· ··
·I
I
supe rvi so r ' s eval uat io n s o f the emp loyee are inc lud e d .
A l so pre sent i s a c urrent pr intout of the emp loye e ' s
ski l l s index .
2.
me nt ;
The ski l l s index pre sent s :
pre se nt a s sign-
s ix are a s o f pa st e xper ience ; the a s s ignme n t for
whi ch the emp loyee is now rea dy ; e du c at ion ; language s ;
achievement s and l icense s ; man agement and t ot a l
experi ence ; mi l it ary statu s .
The deve lopment o f the
ski l l s index pre se nte d some prob lems .
Sk ills I ndex
The sk il l s , an d the e duc at ional r equ i rements
s upport ing the ski l l s , were iden t i fi e d and de fi ne d by
the t a sk for ce in c oope rat ion w ith the manager s , s uper v i s ors , an d a dmi ni strator s of the e n gineering and
re search f � nct ion s .
Even be fore the definit ion pha se
wa s comp leted , it became not i ceab le tha t existing j ob
d e s c r iptions were not adequate for eithe r h ir ing new
employe e s or ident i fying and ut i l iz ing the ex i s t i ng
te chni cal ma npower .
The a s s ignme nt wa s , of nece s s ity ,
expand e d to i n c lude the deve l opme n t of a set o f· j ob
de s cr i pt ions co n s i stent w i th the sk i l l s index .
One
d i re c t bene fi t of th is con s i stency ha s bee n the decre a s e
i n the number of inte rv iew s and the t ime requ ire d to
evaluate prospective employee s .
The informa ti on co llected from each ind i vidua l
i
I
L·- -------· --------------------··-·-·--·--------·-··--------------
.
i
J
--··--·---· ------------····· ·---· -··-··-·-'
\
I
65
r···
.
.
i
wa s :
the number of ye ars dur ing wh ich the spe c i fi c
tec hni c al spec ialty ( ski l l) w a s e mp loye d ; the pro duct
whi ch re s ult e d from t he app l ica t ion o f the ski l l ; the
func t ion ( b a s ic re search , pre limi nary de s ign , et cete ra)
wh ich required the e ffort .
Prod u c t is b r oken down into nine categor ie s ,
twe nty-three c la s s e s , . and one hundre d forty-two individua l type s .
Func t ion ap pe a r s a s twenty-thr e e area s
d ivided into one hundre d an d fi ve s ub- funct io n s .
The
thirteen technical spe c ialty are a s con s i s t of two
hundre d and one ind ivi dua l sk i l ls .
In addit ion to the technica l area , there are
seven broa d area s :
marke t ing , a dmin i s trat ion , plann i ng ,
data pro ce s s i ng , manu factur ing , manufacturing s upport ,
logi s t i c s-qua l it y .
For the se area s , two hundre d and
t hi rty-eight ski l ls a re i den t ifi e d .
Many of the se
re l at e dire ctly to the te chn i ca l e ffor t �
Previous emp loye r s are div ided into aerospace
( 5 5 ) a nd non-aero space ( 20 ) .
Thi s la tter category
c on ta i n s five funct ion are a s of th i rty-e ight subfunc t io n s and e ighteen pro du ct c la s se s with no type s
det a iled .
Nor th Ame r ican Aviat ion , d ur ing the de sign pha se
o f the sys tem , ha d ove r 3 0 , 0 0 0 emp loye e s whos e ski l l s
we re to be ident ifie d a nd reco r de d .
The leve l o f
de t a i l develope d w a s a s sumed ne c e s sary to re str ict
;._-· ·---·· ·
I
---
----·-----·----······-
·····
-----· ·-----·--------·
66
s e lection of an in d ividu a l for a gi ve n po s i t ion to a
max imum number o f between th irty and fi fty .
At the
time of the brie f ing ( June , 1967 ) , approx imat ely seven
hundre d searche s per week were being pe r fo rme d and the
f i fty l imit had not once been reache d .
Thi s wou ld seem
t o ind icate that the s y st em , adapted to an organizat i on ' s
un ique requ irement s , i s adequate for ski l l s defi n it ion
and i dent i fi c at i on .
Accept ing the two hundred technic a l ski l l s a s
a nominal requirement for adequacy , the twenty other
organi z a t i on s • u se of sk ill ident i ficat ion can b e
evaluate d .
The number of sk i l l s used in forecast ing requi rement s range s from zero to one hundre d and fi fty .
One organiz ation al so c laims a Ski l l s Invent ory , but
both per s onal exper i en ce and curre nt interv iew s deny
it s accurac y .
Furthe rmore , fourteen firms re port that
ski l l s do not equal j ob de s c ript i on s and twe lve of the se
fou r teen have ident i f ie d the ski l ls spe c i fical ly for
fore ca s t ing p urpos e s .
!
i
. I
Strange ly enough , on ly four
cons id e r the a ccuracy of t he ski l l s fore c a s t to b e un-
!
;
i
The firm which use s only four sk ills i s
sa t i s fie d with it s foreca s t s .
I
!
sat i s fa c t ory--one be ing t he firm which ha s the ski l l s
i nv ent ory .
l
I
And three o f the
sat i s fie d f i rms l i s t " sk i l l s " a s a prob lem .
i
I
'
I
L---�-----
--------------�-M·�-----�------···- .
-- ·-- - - - -·-
·-------------------------�·
-·-·---
-�------·--·- -----,.-------.
.
, ..�------�J
67
Con s i der ing the se fa ct s , and th at the range of
" sa t i s factory" i s 3 - 10% and " un sati s factory" is 3 % for
two months to unknown ( ski l l s inve ntory a ga i n ) , one
s e n s e s a lack o f con s i st e ncy .
On balance , the conc lu­
s i on--that ski l l s ide nt ific at i on i s inadequ at e in mos t
o f the indu stry-- i s inevitab le .
Nor i s data proc e s s ing
u se d by almo st ha l f the group .
Unfortuna t e ly , the North Amer i can Aviation ski l l s
index , which appear s adequate fo r de finit i on and
ident ifi cat ion , w a s not being ut i l iz e d for pla nning
purpose s .
There wa s no attempt even to determine the
t ime span of the c urre nt a s s ignment .
The l imite d
obj e ctives we r e t o iden t i fy the exi st ing skill s , how .
many o f e ach in th e company , who had them , and wh ere
the individual wa s then a s s i gne d .
From the forego ing , it i s d i f fi cu l t to b e l ieve
tha t the ne c e s sary character i s t i c s o f long-ra nge plann ing
are pre sent in the t echni cal manpower planning proc e s s .
T ime Re late d
In Chapter I I I the as s ignme nt of skills. to
ex i st ing a nd e xpe cted programs and the ava ilab i l it y or
non-ava i lab i l ity of an ind iv i du a l were pre se nted a s a
ne c e s s ary fe at ure o f manpower planning .
I t can b e
c a t egor ica l ly stated that w itho u t a n a dequate sk� l l s
inventory , t h i s a s s ignment/ava i lab i l it y cannot occur .
68
Fu l ly ha l f of the aero space co nt r ib utor s expl i c i t ly
re cogn ize th is prob lem area .
11
ne ed are :
and
" •
•
•
•
•
•
Typ ica l stateme nts of
a dequ ate ski l l acqu i s i t ion fore c a s t , " 2
determining the impact of . potent ia l programs
on manpower re qu ireme nt s . " 3
A port ion o f th is prob lem re su lt s from t he i nabi l ity to pre dict w ith per fect ac c uracy wh ich of the
programs be i ng s ought w i ll be captured .
prob lem in a s s igning probab i l it ie s .
Thi s become s a
Such probabi l i t ie s ,
i f proper ly a s s ig ne d , can be u s e d for gro s s predict ion .
However , a s has been said , it i s not u sua l ly po s s ib le
fo r a pr ime contra c tor to captur e 11ha l f a mis s i le 11 or
othe r pie ce of hardware .
De spite th is d if f icu lty , a l l o f the Con ference
members forecast ant icipat e d work on a program-by-program
ba s is .
All but five use unce rta inty a s a factor iri fore-
ca s t ing and only two of those do ing so con s i de r the
a c curacy o f the re s u l t s t o be unsat is factor y .
The
average error range is aga i n 3 -1 5% and aga in 3% for two
months i s con sidered 11 Unsa t i s fac tory " by th e same firm .
To many people , an e rr or in pre d ict ing o f 15% might we l l
appea r t o cause an eventual dem is e .
2 ouffendack and Jewe tt .
69
r-
1
Mr . Jewett 4 ha s an int e re s ting approach to the
ant icipation prob lem .
S inc e , he be l ieve s , ther e are only
a few ma j or p rograms whic h may be ant i c ipate d by any
product l ine organi z at i on , it sho uld be po s s ib le to
de termine the workload for e ach of the fin ite po s s ib i l it ie s .
The c urre nt contra ct s and na tural fo l low-en s
to the s e cont r act s form the emp loyment base line .
The
expect e d · workload from t he. sma l l . cont ract s is adde d to
the b a se l ine on an expe. cted va lue .
The r e are usua lly a
large number of sma l l cont racts , a n d h i storical dat a of
capture per ce ntage sh oul d prove va lid .
Thi s technique
i so late s the antic ipate d large contrac t s a s the on ly
var iab le por t ion of the workload .
The maj or programs are then a s s igne d sub j e ct ive
probab ilitie s of capture and the pos s ib l e workload i s
e st abl i she d with the probabi lity o f occu rrence o f e ach
po s s ibi lity .
The author the n quant ifi e s a number o f var iab le s
s u ch a s :
e ffic iency of fu l l- t ime , ove rtime , new-hire ,
expe rienced , a nd contrac t employe e s ; hir ing and layoff
c o st s ; vacat ion and vo luntary terminat i on facto r s .
Fr om the se facto rs a nd with in the ma ny cons tra int s
( company pol icy , union agreemen t s , e t cetera ) , a Minimum
4 Roge r F . Jewett , "A Min imum R i sk Manpowe r .
S chedu l i ng Technique , " Management S c i e nce , XII I ( June ,
196 7) I pp . B5 7 8-B5 92 .
L__
- · ··--·�-------------------�------�·- · ------·----�---------·
- ------·---�---·--------------"�·---------------------------------·--·-------
j
70
Cost ma npower schedule ca n be der ive d for the expe cte d
workload .
I t the n be come s po s s ib le to de termine the
c o s t o f t ran s it ion from one manpower le ve l to anothe r .
The firm can now ca l culate the r i sk invo lve d in
the t ra n s i t ion pr oce s s by u s i ng the probab i l it ie s o f
occ urrence and s umming ove r a l l possibilit ie s .
Jewett s ta te s :
As
" C onceptua lly , r i sk i s thu s the expecte d
cos t o f a dj u st i ng t o wha tever wo rkload actua lly occur s . "
5
I n spe ction of th is t echn i que reveals tha t the
re s ult i s a gro s s number of bo dies .
Eve n if it were
extende d to ind ivi d ua l sk i l l s , the inpu t wou ld be ba sed
on e st imate s w ithin the techni ca l funct ions conc erne d .
In Chapter
V
a di fferent te chn ique which can ut iliz e , in
part , thi s te chnique w i l l be pre s e nte d .
The new
me thodology ca n he e xpe cted to avo id much , i f not a l l ,
of the gro s s numb e r s re s u l t .
It sho u l d be me nt ione d tha t e ight of the group
do not u se compute r p roce s s ing , b ut a l l of the e ight
c on s id e r the a ccuracy a s accept ab le .
Th is is true even
wher e unce rta inty e st imate s are not use d by organ izat ion s
rang ing in s iz e t o 2 0 , 00 0+ .
Env ironme nta l ly O r ient ed
The prob lems i n achi ev ing t h i s are rea s onab ly
we l l re c ogniz e d .
l
The attempt to cope w ith b oth inter na l
5 Ibi d . , p . B-585 .
L.
------- -------------------------------------- ---------- - - - - ---------------------------- - -------------------------------- -------'
·
71
and exte rna l e nvi ronme nt s i s on a program ba s i s , but
the re are st i l l prob lems "
.
•
•
in e stab l i shing ground
r u le s , gett ing re a l i sti c e s timat e s o f cont ra ct requ ire ments , and keeping c u rre nt with pr ogram s che du le change s
and go -ahe ad date s . "
6
The first two of the above prob lems are pe rfor mance prob lems a nd t he la st two are commun icat i on
prob lems .
A l l require forma liz at ion .
Env ironmenta lly Re spon s i ve
The on ly evi de nce of this characteri sti c is
fou n d i n the freque ncy w ith whi c h the for e c a s t s are
pre pare d .
This range s fr om weekly to quarter ly w ith
fou rteen of th e f irms prod uc ing a fo re cast at le s s tha n
quarterly int erva ls , and a ll but one on a schedule d
ba s i s .
O f a l l the b ene fit s suppo sedly derive d from
te chnic al manpower planning , on ly one i s dire c t evide nce
of interacti on wit h the external e nvironme nt .
A lthough the fore ca st ing time span s range from
s ix to one hundred a nd twent y month s , no sugge st io n o f
a lt ernative plans i s pre sented .
F lexibi lity
All of the or gan i z at ions report tha t Engineering
prepare s the fo reca st s .
Only two have a s s i s ta nce from
6 nuffendack and Jewett , p . 5 .
72
r·---- I e i the r
I
I
1
I
I
F inanc e of Indu s tr ial · Re la t i on s .
The c omme nts
made about a lternat iv e s apply equa lly we l l here .
De c isi on-making is apparently re s tricted to hir ing an d
layoff , pr oj e c t a s s ignme nt , bid . or no-b i d , and oth e r
internal factor s .
Lacking alt erna tive s , seque nt ia l
de c i s ion-making occurs at s chedule d rev is ion time on ly .
Un struc t ure d
The tra de o ff s requ ire d by technology a re not
me nt ioned in e it her the Rep or t or the procedure s whi ch
have been ava i lab le to the author .
Comme nt s
There i s a nothe r prob lem d ir e c t ly re lat e d to
the acqui s it ion of ski l l s re qui re d in the futu re , but
no t cur re ntly avai lab le .
Whether the ski l l is to be
gotten by h i r ing ( ava i lab i l it y pr ob lem) or by t ra i ni ng ,
a lea d time i s impo sed .
In recognition o f th i s prob lem ,
Thompson-Ramo-Woolr idge Systems h a s prepa re d a l i s t o f
e ig hty- four c r it i c a l skil l s requ i re d for the ir profe s s ional staff .
The e ighty-four are a s sume d to be in short
s upply betwee n now ( 19 66 ) a nd 19 7 5 .
Of th is tota l , only
ten are not speci fica l ly eng ineers - or s c i ent is t s and
ha l f of the ten w i l l prob ab l y have t echnical b a ckgrou nd s .
A l l of the se are s pec ial ized ski l l s , and nowhere do
chemi s t , phy s i c i s t , me chan ical eng inee r or e le c t r ic al
.
�------·• --·--·------·--·---�-·��··•-----····-�--�---·---·-•··-·-·-·--••·------�---
- --�---·--··---·••
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I
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73
e ng ine er appe a r .
I f this lis t i s acc urate , the
import anc e of a sk i l l s invent ory i s re in force d .
Mr . Jewett ' s Minimum Risk Techn ique ? i s one
whi ch doe s cons ider the a lterna t ive s .
It is unfortunate
tha t th e sk i l l s are no t better ident if ie d and that the
pla nning time span i s only two ye ar s for ant ic ipat e d
program s .
Towa rd a New Methodology
The greater part of the re search into t echn ic a l
ma npower planning w a s per forme d dur ing the author ' s
emp loyment b y the space d i v i s ion of an aero space orga ni­
zat i on .
The spe c i fic a s s ig nment was to " deve lop the
me thodo logy r equ ired for long-ra nge technica l manpower
planning . "
The approach to the prob lem and the recomme nded
me thodology w i l l b e dis c u s se d in Chapte r V .
7 Jewe t t .
CHAPTER V
THE RECO��ENDED METHODOLOGY
In March of 19 6 7 , the div i sion had comp i led a
"Job A s si gnment I nventory . "
Thi s t it le was u se d , rathe r
than ski l l s inve nto ry , be cause Indu s tria l Rel a t ions
be l ieve d that the word " ski l l " was offens iv e to scient if ic
and engineering pe r sonne l .
Upon re ceiving the methodology a s s i gnme nt , the
fir st s tep wa s a n a na ly s i s o f the Inventory .
The
analys is reve aled that the re we re mor e than s ix hundred
separate ski l l s c la ime d by approx imat e ly 1 , 4 0 0 techn ica l
emp loyee s .
Fur the r inve st iga t i on r e s u lt e d i n re j ect ion
o f the invent ory .
Ther e w ere several rea son s for this re j ec t ion .
Among the rea s o ns wer e :
( l)
indiv idua l s with s imi lar
educ a t ion a nd exper ience were c la iming tota l ly d iffe re nt
s et s o f ski l l s ;
(2)
a nd job de script i on ;
no re lat ion was found betwee n ski l l
(3)
it wa s impos sible t o re late
produc t to t e chnology or to re la te e i the r to ski l l .
The dec i s ion wa s the n ma de to deve lop the re­
qu i remen t s for aero spa ce t e chnic al manpower planning .
Chapte r I I I is the r e s ult of t h i s de c i s io n .
Th i s wa s
fo l lowed by the r e s e ar ch from wh ic h Chapt er IV , C u rrent
"• • ·-· ··-----.-----·--------·----------------� -�-o-OOMo �•o•o �--·--•o000-00----·--�-------·-�-.. -�---�·-· --------------------------0.-00
0•o••·-------
74
75
Ae r ospace Manpower P l anning Pract ice s , wa s large ly
ge nera te d .
The inf ormat i on gathe re d was valuab l e , but
none o f the applic ations appe a re d to me et the re qu irement s .
A di ffe rent approa ch seeme d ne ce s s ar y and a plan
wa s evolve d .
P lan
It wa s re cogn iz ed that the divi s ion planning wa s
ne ither ac cura te nor a dequate .
Historical dat a depicted
an a lmost t otal lack o f c orre la tion be tween the pre dicte d
program c aptur e and dollar va lue , and the actua l pr ograms
captured and the ir d o l lar value s .
The nec e s s i ty for
start i ng a t the t op of the hie rarchy of ob j ec t ive s wa s
qu i te apparent �
The p lan w a s deve l oped a s a s er ie s o f accomp l i shment s , and the re spon s ib i li ty for each accompl i shme nt wa s a s s igne d .
The s e w il l be identified a s a
seque n ce o f "Ac t io n Item s " and t he rea son for e ach
pr e se nte d .
The rea der shou ld rea l iz e that the " Items "
are not who l ly s e que nt i a l in nature .
Some concurrency
wa s expected .
I tem One
Thi s wa s to a c c omp l i sh the s pe c if i c i de nt i ficat io n and de fi ni t io n of the product l in e s for which the
d iv is i on wa s re spon s ib le .
1I
L .
Th i s required ana ly s is o f the
divi sion charter and c on s u ltat ion w ith other div is i on s .
------- -----------------------------------------
76
The co n s u ltati on w ith ot he r div i s ions was nece s sary
beca us e aero space group polic y re su lted in a divi sional
re spon s ib i l ity area cons is ting of fu nct ion .
For example ,
the spa c e divi s i on wa s a s s igne d space syste ms re spon s i b i l it y , b u t ano th er divis ion was re sp onsib le for
e le ctronic s ys tems w ithi n the s pace syst ems .
S ince the di vi sion s we re e s sent i al ly autonomous ,
the nee d for c oope ra tion became somewhat o f a prob lem .
Thi s func tiona l separa t i on and the coopera t ion require.
men t were early recog nized a s a ser iou s con stra int on
the manpower plann ing proce s s .
I t em Two
Thi s wa s the Market ing area .
Ex i s t i ng technique
produced a fiv e year f ore c a s t o f expe cte d programs and
an e s t imat e of the ant ic ipa te d funding leve l for e a ch
ye a r o
In s ome instanc e s a s ub j e c t ive probab i l ity o f
capture w a s ma de .
Actua l plann ing , on a g ro s s b a s is , covered only
the f ir s t yea r of the forec a s t .
The div i s ion • s h is tory
proved tha t the fo reca st was inacc urate and that the
p l a nning w a s one-t ime , and requ ire d nume r ou s emergency
re act ions t o skir t di s a ster .
A di fferent approach to
b oth forec a st i ng an d planning wa s de c ide d upon .
No
a t t empt will be ma de t o di scus s the devel opment of
planning techn ique s other t han those dir e c t ly relate d
l
!
I
;
,
�-· - ··- ---•4••-•·-----------•-•••R••-·•••• •-•- -··-
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• • ••••••-·-•••-••-·•--·-----�----- --•·••>••-----.-- ....----.:.
-------- --��----
77
to manpower plann ing altho ugh it i s obv iou s that a l l ·
area s mu st be cove re d .
To cause a s l ittl e d i sturbance a s pos s ib le , the
first fore ca st u s ing the new technique s wa s a l s o held
to a five yea r period .
One of the ba s i c change s ma de
wa s in the deve l opme nt of the probab i l it y of captur e
( PC ) of
a
giv e n pr ogram .
be the pro duct o f :
Thi s ( PC ) wa s dete rmine d to
the p robabi l ity o f the program
b e i ng funde d ( PF) ; the p rob ab i l it y o f re ce iving an
opport un ity to b i d ( PO) ; the probabi l it y of b e ing in a
competit ive po s i t ion ( PP )
•
Each of the pr obab i l it ie s wa s composed of
var i ou s fac tor s who se sum r e s u lt ed in tha t probab i l i ty
val u e .
Typ ical of PP a re the fac tors o f technical
capabi lity , manager ial capab i l it y , s che du le impact on
re s ource s , re lat io n to cus tome r , and o the rs .
Whe n . the
va l ue of PC fe l l b e low a certa in po int , the co st o f
incre a s ing the va lue s o f P O and/or PP ( semi­
c ont rollab le ) , to a val ue at which PC became an
accept ab le r i sk , wa s a l s o devel ope d .
The next s tage i n t he devel opme nt o f the
market forecast wo u l d be a ten year spa n .
Th is per i od
wou ld inclu de s ome new technology and wa s to b e clo s e ly
c oor dina te d w ith the divi si on re s earch e ffor t .
At this
time , a p roduct-technology network simi lar to the Prob e
te chn ique o f Chapter I I was t o be devel ope d . ·
78
r .
/
The next iter at i on would cove r a twenty year
per i o d .
Dur ing t h i s pha se the te chnology node s of the
network were to be e val uate d , in an attempt to determine
the existence o f al terna t ive path s to sat is fy the mi s s i on
requireme nt s , e ither through technology or pro duct .
( The thi rd dimensi on o f the ob j ec t ive s -plans matrix . )
The prob lems c a u se d by the f u nct io nal nat ure o f
the d i v i s ions become wor s e a s the t ime dimen s ion increase s .
The st andards for c ooperat ion in t e chnology
evalu ation and alt ernat ive determinat ion may be imp o s s ib le of ach ie vemen t .
Item Three
The Re sea rch ar ea wa s made r e s ponsib le for
deve lop ing detai led pla n s in support of the va riou s
ma rket p lans .
The addit iona l cons tra i nt o f ana lys i s
of cu stome r requ iremen t s in new technology a nd funding
for the t e chnology wa s imposed on th i s e ffort .
Re search
wa s to p lay a maj or r o le in the network ana lys is and
a lternat i ve dete rminat ion .
Any ma j or t echnologica l
deve lopme nt , int e r na l or exte rnal , was to be eva l uat e d
b y Re se arch in t e rms of i t s impact o n t he curre nt market
p lan and the ne twork , and s ubmitted to the planning
funct ion for furthe r p r oce s s ing .
·
·--··--···-· ···-··---------�·----- - ---------·------
--·- -······-······
..
·--·--·
. . ....
··--------- ····· -····-··-- - - - . ·-·
.. ·····-···-------· --
· - ·-··-- ... .
-
........ ......... .
79
I t em Four
This item was the re spon s ibi lity of the Eng ineer­
ing func t ions .
The f ir st prob lem wa s to deve l op a Work
Bre akdown Struct ure fo r e ach p r oduct w ithin the marke t
plan .
Thi s struc ture i s hierarch ical in natur e and
identi f i e s leve ls of comp lexity within the pro duct-­
s y s tem , sub - sys tem , s ub - s ub - sys tem , bl ack b ox .
The
obj ect was to i de nt i fy a speci fic Work Package and a s sign
re spon sib i l i ty and c o nt ro l of that pa ckage to an i nd i vi­
dual .
Th i s procedu re fo l low s the gove rnmen t re quir ements
set for th in the u s ua l cont ra c t contro l s e c t ions , and the
s pe c i fica ti ons pe rtaining to such requ iremen t s .
Engineeri ng wa s then t o det ermine the te chnology
requ ir e d t o pro d uce the Work Package and the spe c i fic
ski l l s mix , w ithin e a ch t echno logy .
The ski l l s mix was
to be pre s e nted as man -month s require d o f each ski l l and
the percentage o f the total e ffort by ski l l .
By inte­
grat i ng the s e valu e s for the ent ir e Work Bre akdown
Structure , the entir e pr oduc t could be de fine d in t e rms
of man-months of e ach sk i l l .
I tem F ive
I ndu strial re lat i on s wa s de le gated the
re sponsibi lity for deve lop ing , in coordinat ion with a l l
divi s ion funct ion s , the sk i l l s i nvent o ry for the
d iv i s io n .
The . e nd re s u l t wa s to be simi lar t o th at
80
deve l ope d by North Ame r ic an Aviat ion ( Chapter IV) b ut
the ski l l s were to be spe ci fica lly repre se nta t ive of
the d ivi s ion re quirements and wer e to b e more productte chnology or iente d .
The fu nc t i on for whic h the ski l l
wa s app l i ed w a s not thought t o b e nece s sary , since the
technology mo re appropr iate ly rel ate d to pro duc t and
indiv idu a l sk i l l a s s ignments to funct ions we re th e
re s u l t o f s chedu le requ irement s .
The devel opment of j ob de scription s to mat ch
the ski l l s wa s the cause of much concern .
Beca u s e of
the f unct ional character of the d ivi s i ons , the same
ski l l s were u se d by ma ny d ivi s ions .
Job de s c r ipt ion s
were c orpor ate do c ume nts a n d not subj ect to change by
group or divi s io n .
S inc e j ob de s c r ipt ions and ski l l s
d id not equate , i t wo uld b e impos s ib le t o eva luate
ind � v i dua l s in oth e r d iv i s io ns for tra ns fer , promot ion ,
et cetera with o ut exhau s tive inv e s t i ga t ion .
Recogn i z ing the prob lem , attempt s were ma de to
s e c ure the c oope ration of other div i s i ons in both the
deve lopme n t o f the ski l l s inventory and in rewrit ing
the j ob descript i on s .
Only by tot al app l ic at ion of the
co nce p t to a ll div i s ions could maximum u s e be made of
the . sk i l l s inven tory .
Re spons e s to th e re que st s for co operati on were
who l ly negat ive .
De spite thi s , the de cis ion to pro ceed
within the div i s ion was made .
.. - -- �--- -----�- --------.-------·-----�
�--
--
It was dec ide d that a ll·
- -·· · · . - -----· ·· · - -------
--------
--- ·---- ---------------------------------------�-- ---------- - - --"-"''
.
___
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l
j
81
reque s t s for acqu i s i t ion or di s po sa l of per s onne l wou ld
have the Employee Profi le attached .
The u t i l i ty of the
sy s tem would th u s be e stab l i shed--or s o it was bel ieved .
I tem S ix
The wr iter was made r espons ible for c oordinat ing
the overa l l e ffort and , hop e fu l ly , proving the ski l l ­
te chno logy -product rel ationsh ip .
The former , with it s
many meet ing s , pre senta t i ons , and per s u a s ion , wa s t ime ­
con s uming , b ut the latter wa s , perha ps , even more
d if fi cu lt .
The approach chosen wa s that of sele c t i ng three ,
p a s t , sequent ia l , comp leted programs , within one pro duct
l i ne , and s imi lar in mis s io n re qu i rements .
o f cour se , were a l so s imi lar .
The pr od uc t s ,
The Work Breakdown
St ructure for e ach p rogram was obtaine d and the c le r i c a l
e f for t commence d .
Thi s invo lve d recor d ing against ea ch
Work Package number , by week , the name of the ind i vi dua l
and the number o f hou r s o f e ffor t contrib uted by the
indiv i du al duri ng that we ek .
A lthough the sk i l l s had ,
a s yet , not been de fine d , the val idity o f th is approa ch
wa s b a sed on s eve ral a s sumpti ons which appeare d rea son­
ab le .
F ir st , s inc e the pr og rams were past and
complete d , the re would be no curre nt expe nditure of
e ff or t .
Second , the s eque nt ia l nature o f the programs
82
showed that an ind iv i du a l wo uld not be a s s igne d to mo re
tha n one of the sub j e c t programs at the same t ime .
Third , it wa s mor e than like ly th at an ind ivi du a l expe nd ing e ffort in two or mo re program s , in Work Package s
re s ult ing in s imilar produc t s , wo u ld be u s ing the same
ski l l .
Fourth , the re la t ive stabi l ity of the wo rk force
dur ing the per iod of the se programs argue s for a re a s onab le cont inu ity of e f fort from program to program .
Acknow ledg ing th e l imite d nat ure of the sample ,
it wa s hope d that , even i f the sk i l l s mix for the Work
Package s were chang ing , rea sons for the cha nge cou ld be
fou nd .
The change s might be random in nat ure , spe c ific
requiremen t s , or part of a tren d .
the data wou ld b e va l uab le .
I n a ny event , a l l o f
Proof for the system ' s
va l id ity wou ld be i t s s ucce s s f ul applicat ion t o another ,
s im i lar , program .
The clerical e ffort i nvolv e d wa s appa l l i ng .
The
informat ion wa s ava ilab le only in hist or ica l recor d s .
Th ese re c ords we re tab ular computer print-out s for each
pr ogram , for each week , ide n t i fying on ly the Work
Package an d each indiv idua l ' s hours for tha t week .
wa s not po s s ible to obtain s ummarie s .
It
A l l the data had
to be trans c r ibed by hand and summe d for the indivi dual .
-,
The nature of t he who le prob lem indicate d th at
a c ons i derab le . amount of t ime was neede d to imp leme nt
the plan .
By the en d of July , 19 6 7 , only the out li ne s
83
of items one thr ou gh four had been agree d upon .
For
item five , a tentati ve l is t of sk i l l s ha d been e stab­
l i she d ; a nd for item s ix , only one program ' s e f fort ha d
been tra n sc r ibed and summe d .
At this t ime , the di screpanc ie s caused by the
ex i st ing sy st em re s u lt ed in a ve ry poor prospect for
the ne ar fut ure .
Coup led w ith Congre s s iona l re luc tance
to fund the space program , the out look was not bri ght .
The d iv i s ion , from the earl ier high of 2 , 7 0 0 employe e s ,
was schedu le d to shr ink to unde r 1 , 0 0 0 in a short t ime .
The ent i re pla n was droppe d and many of the peop le mo s t
i nt imat ely i nvo lve d were e ither transferre d or laid off .
A lthough the methodology was not fully deve l ope d ,
s ome of it s e ffe c t s are d i scern ible .
Skil l s
Cre at i ng the sk i l l s invent o ry sat i s fie s the
requ irement of e s tab l i sh i ng a base line .
C lo s e ly re lat ing
ski l l s t o the techno logy-pr oduct-mi s s ion hierarchy so lve s
the prob lem of tran s lat ing the cu st omer requ i reme nt s
into the int ernal capab i l ity o f meet ing tho se r equir e ­
men t s .
E stab l i shing the sk i l l s mix and i t s spec i fi c
appl ica tion per io d b y t echnology and pro duc t shou ld
e nable the deve lopme nt of the plann ing characte r i st ic s
t o the appropr i ate leve l .
84
T ime Re late d
The me thodo logy s pelled out abov e w i l l al low
the de termination of the sk i l l s require d/ava ilable for
any period of time .
B u ildi ng the requireme nts from t he
Work Package thr oug h t he s i ng le produ ct l ine and through
a l l pro duc t line s re s u lt s in a tot a l pic tur e o f the
organ izat i on at each point .
The int egrati on with the
schedule s ca lls for comprehensive automa t ion of the
pr oc e s s .
Env ir onment ally Or iente d
The ab i lit y to re late the organ iz ation • s
capab i li ty in terms of ski ll to the c u s t ome r re quire­
men ts is a re s u l t of the pla nning pr oce s s out l ine d in
the 11A ction Items 11 - - speci fic ally in the Marketing and
Re sear ch are a s .
Env ironmenta lly Re spon s i ve
Th i s chara ct eris t ic i s the re s ult of the
pro du ct-technology network and the feedback gene rate d
by Re s e arch .
The plann ing fu nct ion ut i l iz e s th i s fee d­
back in re spond ing to te chnological chang e j u st a s it
re spo nds to Market ing inputs on e c onomic and politi cal
change s .
The technology node s and the oth e r input s are
the ba s i s for the thi rd dimens ion of the ob j e ct ive s -plans
matrix .
The greater the number of node s that appear , the
85
denser i s this th ir d d ime nsion .
A prope rly indo ctrinate d
Re s earch func t ion w i l l pro duce th is den s ity .
The Work
Package approa ch t o ski l l s nee ded al lows the deve l opment
of manpower requi rements for each path .
F le xib ilit y
The mu lt itude of a lter nat ive s sugge s ted above i s
evide nc e for the flex ibi li ty o f the me thodol ogy .
The
deve lopme nt of a lter n ative s to s at is fy mi s s ion requirement s through chang e s in e i the r product o r t e chno logy ,
and t o suppor t the se change s by de f in ing the ne ce s s ary
ski l l s , is proof posit ive of fle x ib ility .
Th is al so len d s it s e l f to incremental and
sequen tial de ci sions , beca use of th e number and
chrono logy of the de c i s ion node s .
Un structured
The den s i ty and complexity of the network sho uld
go far towar d solving t he pr ob lem caused by the nat ure
of the f uture .
Impl ic ation s
Inhere nt in the me thodology are s ome conse.
quenc e s wh ich may not b e se l f-ev ident .
Critical Ski l l s
The total ski l l s req ui rement s a re summe d ove r
the pos s ib le program capture mix e s and inc lude the
86
c urrent contract and fol low- on base .
It i s a l s o
po s s ib l e t o ide nt i fy the va r i ou s alte rnat ive s o f
technol ogy o r product which w i l l sat i s fy the mi s s ion
requireme nt s , a nd to a dd the f i rm programs to each .
Subtra c t ing fr om ea ch o f the va r i ou s sums the
ski l l s expe cted to be ava i lab le during the period , an d
not neglecting the ski l l s o f the ind iv idual be low the
primary ski l l , it w i ll b e po s s ib le to determine fo r each
pot e nt ial workload the crit ic a l sk i l l s not expected t o
be ava i lab le .
By the qua nt i ficat ion o f va rious factor s
for acqu i s it ion and re tent ion of the se critical ski l l s
a t s eve ra l leve l s , the co st o f each leve l c a n b e made
It may a l so be use d
par t of the r i sk-tak ing dec i s io n .
i n eva luat i ng the pr ob abi l ity o f be ing in a compe t it ive
pos it ion ( PP ) me nt ione d e a r lier .
Re structure
Thi s i s the pos s ib i l i ty o f r e s truct u r ing an
o rgan iz at ion becau se o f ski l l s .
I f two ( or more )
prod uc t s in a d iv i s ion ' s p roduct l ine s u t i l i z e the
same te chnology and ident ica l or near ly ident ica l ski ll s
mixe s , i t c a n b e a s s ume d tha t they are rea lly the s am e
product .
Wou ld it make for e ff ic ie ncy to comb i ne the
pro duct re spons ibi l i ty in a s i ngle Eng i neering function?
What i f the i dentity extended acro s s divi sion l ine s ?
87
Shou l d a n or gan izat i on b e st ruc ture d a c cord ing to
te chnology and sk i l l , or by prod uct , or by fu nction?
E st imating
The methodology d i sc u s sed here shou ld , a fter
ac cumulati on of s ome expe ri ence , yie ld fa s te r and more
accurate e s tima te s of manpow e r co st s for future programs
and propo s a l s .
Laboratory Equipme nt
The requ ir ement s for l aboratory equ ipme nt should
prove e a s ie r t o de fine whe n the sk i l l s it mu st support
a re known .
Faci l itie s
The fac i l it y requi rements and office furn i t ure ,
b a s e d on occupancy s t andar ds , shou ld b e more re a d i ly
determinable .
Pe r s onnel
The s upport i ng admini s trat ive and cler ica l
requ ir eme nt s should be a s certainab le w ith ease .
Th i s
fac i l ity o f determina t i on may al so extend to mana ger ia l
p er s onne l .
The se last three item s can read i ly be inc orpo­
rate d into the c omput er cyc le .
88
Conc l u s i on
Alth ough the autho r wa s unab le to impleme nt the
methodology here p re sent ed , the hope pe r s i s t s that thi s
pre s e ntation w il l s erve a s mot ivat ion for another .
BIBLIOGRAPHY
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89
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Litton Industries .
- " ---l
- - -- - - --
Othe r Source s
Personal
the Corporate Staf f .
interviews with memb e rs
May,
North American Aviat ion .
Personal
Departme nt managers .
May,
1967 .
I
I
of
I
I
I
interviews with
1967 .
;
Thompson -R amo-Woolridge Systems .
Personal inte rviews
with Corporate Staff memb ers and others .
May, June , 19 6 7 .
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