Statistical Bulletin International Comparisons of Productivity - First Estimates, 2011 Coverage: International Date: 19 September 2012 Geographical Areas: Country, UK Theme: Economy International Comparisons of Productivity - First Estimates, 2011 • Output per hour in the UK was 15 percentage points below the average for the rest of the G7 industrialised nations in 2011, the widest productivity gap since 1995. On an output per worker basis, UK productivity was 20 percentage points lower than the rest of the G7 in 2011. • In 2011, UK output per hour grew roughly in line with the average for the rest of the G7, and faster than the US and Germany. But UK output per worker was broadly flat in 2011, compared with growth for the rest of the G7. • Since the start of the recession in 2007, growth of UK output per hour has trailed that of the US, Japan and Canada, but has been similar to that of other major European economies. • Over this period, UK output per worker has fallen by a cumulative three percentage points. This is the weakest of all G7 economies apart from Italy. About this release This bulletin contains annual estimates of labour productivity for the G7 developed countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK and USA) up to 2011. Labour productivity measures the amount of current price and constant price (that is, inflation adjusted) economic output that is produced by a unit of labour input, and is a key measure of economic performance. Output is measured by gross domestic product (GDP). Labour input is measured in two ways – by total hours worked and by numbers of workers in employment. These two measures of labour input can yield different results, reflecting differences in working patterns across countries and compositional movements over time, such as a shift towards part-time working. Comparability across countries is achieved by converting local currency based measures of current price GDP using purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates. PPP exchange rates (usually Office for National Statistics | 1 International Comparisons of Productivity - First Estimates, 2011 | 19 September 2012 referred to simply as PPPs) attempt to equalise the cost of a representative basket of goods and services in countries with different national currencies. An ONS article (246.1 Kb Pdf) explaining the uses and limitations of PPPs is available on our website. The estimates in this release update estimates to 2010 published on 6 March 2012 and provide first estimates for 2011. This release cycle reflects the publication and revision cycles of the component data series. Interpreting these statistics The labour productivity measures in this bulletin are presented in terms of current prices, suitable for cross-country comparison of levels for a single year, and constant prices, suitable for analysis of productivity growth over a number of years. The current price estimates in Tables 1 and 2 should be read horizontally, while the constant price estimates in Tables 3 and 4 should be read vertically. Current price productivity estimates are indexed to UK=100 for each year and show each country’s productivity relative to that of the UK in that year. Since productivity is a key determinant of living standards, these estimates also provide an indication of living standards relative to the UK. In interpreting these estimates users should bear in mind that PPPs provide only an approximate conversion from national currencies and may not fully reflect national differences in the composition of a representative basket of goods and services. And the current price productivity estimates should not be used to analyse productivity trends over time. For example, an increase in UK productivity relative to another country could be due to UK productivity growing faster, or falling less, or due to changes in relative prices in the two countries, or some combination of these movements. Constant price productivity estimates are indexed to a particular year. For each country, these estimates are almost identical to national labour productivity series (minor differences from national sources are described in the Background Notes to this bulletin). In this release the index year has been changed from 2004 to 2007 in order to focus on movements in labour productivity over the recession. Constant price productivity estimates show the evolution over time of productivity for each country and for the G7 (and G7 excluding the UK) aggregates, but should not be used to compare productivity at a point in time. Changes in constant price productivity can be decomposed into changes in output minus changes in labour inputs, and these components can move in different directions within and across countries. This should be borne in mind in interpreting the constant price productivity estimates in this release. More information on methodology and interpretation is available in the Background Notes to this bulletin. Additionally, a Quality and Methodology paper for this release provides information on the quality of the estimates in this release, as well as providing a summary of methods used in compiling the output. Office for National Statistics | 2 International Comparisons of Productivity - First Estimates, 2011 | 19 September 2012 Current price productivity Current price productivity estimates allow for comparison of how much economic output is produced by each worker and hour worked across countries in a particular year, relative to the UK=100. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per Hour Worked (Table 1) First estimates for 2011 show that UK per hour worked was: • • • above that of Japan, similar to that of Canada and Italy, significantly below Germany, France, the US and the average of the G7 countries excluding the UK. Figure 1: Current price GDP per hour worked Source: Office for National Statistics Download chart XLS format (70.5 Kb) Comparing 2011 with 2010, the UK productivity shortfalls relative to Italy, Germany, France and the US all widened. Canada’s shortfall in productivity has been closed, and the productivity difference between the UK and Japan narrowed by four percentage points. The difference in productivity between the UK and the rest of the G7 widened by two percentage points and was the largest since 1995. GDP per worker (Table 2) Office for National Statistics | 3 International Comparisons of Productivity - First Estimates, 2011 | 19 September 2012 On this basis, UK productivity in 2011 was: • • • above that of Japan, lower than that of all the remaining G7 countries, lower than the US by the greatest margin since 1990, when this series begins. Figure 2: Current price GDP per worker Source: Office for National Statistics Download chart XLS format (70.5 Kb) Comparing 2011 with 2010, the shortfall between UK labour productivity on a per worker basis and the rest of the G7 widened by four percentage points. Against the US, the productivity difference widened by five percentage points (the largest annual change on record), while the gap over Japan narrowed to the smallest margin since 1996. As illustrated in Figure 3, there are significant differences in average hours worked across the G7, reflecting cultural and compositional differences between economies. These differences account for differences in the patterns of productivity in Figures 1 and 2. Comparing 2011 with 2010, the largest change in average hours was in the UK, where average hours fell by around 1.5 percentage points, perhaps partly reflecting special factors such as the Royal Wedding in April 2011. In addition, there has been a shift towards part-time employment according to UK labour market statistics. Office for National Statistics | 4 International Comparisons of Productivity - First Estimates, 2011 | 19 September 2012 Figure 3: Average hours per worker Source: Office for National Statistics Download chart XLS format (70.5 Kb) Constant price productivity In this release, constant price productivity series are indexed to 2007=100 and show the evolution of labour productivity over time for each separate country and for the G7, and G7 excluding the UK, aggregates. Office for National Statistics | 5 International Comparisons of Productivity - First Estimates, 2011 | 19 September 2012 Figure 4: Constant price GDP per hour worked, selected G7 countries Index 2007=100 Source: Office for National Statistics Download chart XLS format (70.5 Kb) Office for National Statistics | 6 International Comparisons of Productivity - First Estimates, 2011 | 19 September 2012 Figure 5: Constant price GDP per worker, selected G7 countries Index 2007=100 Source: Office for National Statistics Download chart XLS format (70.5 Kb) A striking feature of Figure 4 (GDP per hour) and Figure 5 (GDP per worker) is the difference in productivity trajectories over recent years between the main European economies on the one hand and the US and Japan on the other hand. In 2011 US GDP was around one percentage point higher than in the pre-recession year of 2007, whereas US employment was some four percentage points lower and US hours worked were around five percentage points lower. Hence US labour productivity in 2011 was some 5-6 percentage points above 2007 levels. By contrast, UK GDP was 2.4 percentage points lower in 2011 than in 2007, while UK employment was 0.3 percentage points higher, hence the fall in UK output per worker between 2007 and 2011. Total hours worked fell by 2.8 percentage points in the UK over this period, reflected in output per hour regaining its 2007 level in 2011. The weakness of UK labour productivity over this period has been referred to as the "productivity conundrum" and is discussed further in this ONS article. Office for National Statistics | 7 International Comparisons of Productivity - First Estimates, 2011 | 19 September 2012 In 2011, productivity growth was similar in the UK and Germany. But GDP growth in Germany was 3.0 per cent compared with only 0.8 per cent in the UK, with correspondingly different movements in labour inputs. Revisions Data covering the entire period 1990 to 2010 have been subject to revision in this release since the previous publication on 6 March 2012. The main sources of revisions are as follows: • • • • • • Small revisions to PPP exchange rates for Japan for 2009 and 2010. Revisions to GDP estimates for the UK from 1990 onwards, reflecting revised measurement of insurance services, in line with Eurostat requirements, see Improvements to Blue Book 2012: Measurement of insurance services. For example, in 2010 UK current price GDP has been revised upwards by 0.2 per cent, and UK constant price GDP has been revised upwards by 1.1 per cent. Revisions to GDP estimates for other countries (apart from Canada) in 2009 and 2010, reflecting updated information. Major revisions to French employment and working hours for the whole period 1990-2010. More information on these revisions. Downward revisions to UK employment over the period 1993-2003. Revisions to annual hours for Germany and the UK over the whole period. Tables R1 to R4 of this release compare the latest estimates up to 2010 with the estimates from the previous release on 6 March 2012. Revisions arise from a combination of revisions to the input data cited above. Notes for Revisions 1. Note that because Tables 1 and 2 are indexed to UK=100, revisions to the UK are zero by definition. Thus, revisions to other countries may represent a combination of revisions to UK data and other countries’ data. Background notes 1. This Statistical Bulletin ONS publishes annual estimates of International Comparisons of Productivity twice a year. Initial estimates are published approximately nine months after the reference year, with final estimates published approximately five months later. Exact publication dates vary subject to the availability of the input datasets. 2. Quality and methodology A revised and updated Quality and Methodology paper for this release was published on 20 July 2012. This paper describes the intended uses of the statistics presented in this publication, Office for National Statistics | 8 International Comparisons of Productivity - First Estimates, 2011 | 19 September 2012 their quality, and the sources and methods used to produce them. The paper also provides information on the uses and limitations of international comparisons of productivity. The output measure used here (GDP) differs from that used for the ONS headline measure of labour productivity (Gross Value Added (GVA)). The difference between these measures is that GDP uses market prices and GVA uses basic prices, which exclude taxes and subsidies and trade and transport costs. As the OECD does not produce output series using basic prices over the necessary time period, and PPP exchange rates are implicitly based on market prices, GDP is used in this bulletin. 3. Other data on productivity ONS publishes a quarterly Labour Productivity statistical bulletin. This provides more detailed information regarding UK labour productivity than this release. ONS also publishes experimental estimates of multi-factor productivity (117.3 Kb Pdf) (MFP), which decompose output growth into the contributions that can be accounted for by labour and capital inputs. In these estimates, the contribution of labour is further decomposed into quantity (hours worked) and quality dimensions. Lastly, ONS publishes a range of public sector productivity measures and related articles. These measures define productivity differently from that employed in the ONS labour productivity and MFP estimates. Further information can be found in Phelps (2010) (252.5 Kb Pdf). More information on the range of ONS productivity estimates can be found in the ONS Productivity Handbook. The OECD also publishes growth of GDP per hour worked. for the G7 and two other aggregates, the EU and OECD. These OECD estimates can be compared with the series in Table 3 of this bulletin. The differences between the ONS and OECD series are not large. They can be explained by the different sources used for the component data. In particular, ONS estimates use employment data that are based on countries’ labour force surveys, whereas the OECD estimates use the National Accounts as the main source of employment data for most countries. There are also slight differences in the GDP data, as the OECD estimates use the Annual National Accounts with results in national currency, whereas ONS uses the Quarterly National Accounts for GDP data. More international data on productivity are available from Eurostat, and the Conference Board. 4. User engagement ONS is keen to develop a greater understanding of the use made of international comparisons of productivity statistics. If you have something to tell us, please use the feedback form on ONS productivity statistics available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/ specific/economy/productivity-measures/productivity-articles/index.html ONS is organising a Productivity Statistics User Group Workshop in early 2013. If you are interested in attending please email: [email protected]. Office for National Statistics | 9 International Comparisons of Productivity - First Estimates, 2011 | 19 September 2012 You can follow ONS on Twitter: www.twitter.com/statisticsons and Facebook: www.facebook.com/statisticsons and watch our videos at www.youtube.com/onsstats 5. Next publication date Final estimates for 2011 will be published in February 2013. 6. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html or from the Media Relations Office email: [email protected] These National Statistics are produced to high professional standards and released according to the arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority. Copyright © Crown copyright 2012 You may use or re-use this information (not including logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence. To view this licence, visit www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/ or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: [email protected]. This document is also available on our website at www.ons.gov.uk. Statistical contacts Name Priya Mistry Phone Department Email +44 (0)1633 455047 Office for National [email protected] Statistics Issuing Body: Office for National Statistics Media Contact Details: Telephone: 0845 604 1858 (8.30am-5.30pm Weekdays) Emergency out of hours (limited service): 07867 906553 Email: [email protected] Office for National Statistics | 10 International Comparisons of Productivity Table 1: Current price GDP per hour worked UK = 100 G7 G7 exc. UK 132 120 122 130 117 119 100 126 115 116 90 100 124 114 115 123 90 100 122 113 115 126 119 89 100 121 112 113 121 124 117 88 100 119 110 111 103 122 121 117 86 100 120 110 111 1999 104 122 123 114 86 100 121 111 112 2000 100 122 119 112 85 100 118 109 110 2001 99 122 119 112 84 100 118 109 109 2002 95 123 118 105 83 100 116 107 108 2003 95 118 119 102 83 100 117 107 107 2004 94 115 119 98 83 100 117 106 107 2005 97 117 119 98 83 100 119 108 108 2006 95 118 118 97 81 100 116 106 106 2007 96 120 121 101 83 100 118 108 109 2008 97 122 123 104 84 100 120 110 110 2009 99 125 123 106 84 100 124 112 113 2010 98 123 121 102 86 100 125 112 113 2011 100 125 122 104 90 100 127 114 115 Germany Italy Japan UK US G7 G7 exc. UK Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK US 1990 116 132 1991 115 132 132 125 94 100 133 124 96 100 1992 112 128 130 120 93 100 1993 110 125 126 120 92 1994 109 125 126 121 1995 108 125 127 1996 104 122 1997 103 1998 Note: This table should be read horizontally Source: Office for National Statistics Table 2: Current price GDP per worker UK = 100. Canada France 1990 118 123 132 109 100 138 1991 115 122 117 131 108 100 136 123 125 1992 115 122 118 129 105 100 137 122 124 1993 113 118 113 130 102 100 134 119 121 1994 111 116 113 130 99 100 131 118 119 1995 110 115 112 132 98 100 130 117 118 1996 108 113 110 129 97 100 129 116 117 1997 106 111 107 126 94 100 127 114 115 1998 106 111 105 128 91 100 128 114 115 1999 107 111 106 125 91 100 131 114 116 2000 104 109 103 122 91 100 128 112 114 2001 102 108 101 121 89 100 125 111 112 2002 99 108 101 114 89 100 125 110 111 2003 99 104 102 111 89 100 126 110 111 2004 98 103 102 107 89 100 126 110 111 2005 101 104 102 106 88 100 127 110 111 2006 99 104 101 106 87 100 125 109 110 2007 100 106 102 109 88 100 127 111 111 2008 101 110 105 113 89 100 130 113 114 2009 102 112 103 113 88 100 133 114 115 2010 101 110 103 110 90 100 134 114 116 2011 105 114 106 114 96 100 139 119 120 Note: This table should be read horizontally Source: Office for National Statistics Table 3: Constant price GDP per hour worked 2007 = 100 G7 G7 exc. UK 74 73 74 76 75 76 71 77 77 77 80 73 78 79 79 93 82 75 78 80 80 83 93 83 77 81 82 82 84 85 95 85 78 82 83 84 88 86 85 95 85 81 84 85 85 1999 91 88 88 95 87 83 87 87 88 2000 94 91 91 98 88 86 89 90 90 2001 94 92 94 99 90 87 91 91 91 2002 96 94 95 99 92 90 93 93 93 2003 96 95 96 98 93 93 95 95 95 2004 97 96 97 98 96 94 97 96 97 2005 99 97 97 99 98 96 98 98 98 2006 100 100 99 99 98 98 99 99 99 2007 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 2008 100 99 100 99 100 99 100 100 100 2009 100 98 97 97 99 98 103 100 101 2010 102 100 99 99 103 99 105 103 103 2011 103 101 99 99 107 100 106 104 105 Germany Italy Japan UK US G7 G7 exc. UK Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK US 1990 78 74 1991 79 75 73 81 73 64 73 82 75 64 1992 80 77 75 83 76 68 1993 82 78 76 87 79 1994 84 80 79 90 1995 85 82 81 1996 85 83 1997 87 1998 Note: This table should be read vertically Source: Office for National Statistics Table 4: Constant price GDP per worker 2007 = 100 Canada France 1990 81 82 83 83 67 74 1991 80 83 80 84 84 68 75 77 78 1992 82 85 83 85 84 70 77 79 80 1993 83 85 83 89 84 73 78 80 81 1994 86 87 85 92 85 76 79 82 82 1995 87 88 87 96 86 77 80 83 84 1996 87 89 88 96 88 79 82 85 85 1997 89 90 90 98 89 81 84 86 87 1998 90 91 90 98 87 83 86 88 88 1999 93 93 92 98 88 85 89 90 90 2000 96 93 94 100 90 87 91 91 92 2001 96 93 96 100 91 89 92 92 93 2002 97 94 96 99 92 90 93 94 94 2003 96 94 97 98 94 93 95 95 95 2004 98 97 98 99 96 94 97 97 97 2005 99 98 98 99 97 95 98 98 98 2006 100 99 99 99 98 97 99 99 99 2007 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 2008 99 99 100 98 99 98 100 100 100 2009 98 98 95 94 95 96 101 98 98 2010 100 99 98 97 100 97 104 101 101 2011 100 101 98 97 104 97 105 102 103 Note: This table should be read vertically Source: Office for National Statistics International Comparisons of Productivity Table R1: Revisions to current price GDP per hour worked Index points G7 G7 exc. UK -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 5 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 1999 -1 5 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 2000 -1 4 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 2001 -1 4 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 2002 -1 4 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 2003 -1 4 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 2004 1 6 2 1 1 0 1 1 2 2005 -1 4 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 2006 0 4 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2007 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2008 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 0 6 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 2010 1 6 3 1 1 0 1 1 1 Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK 1990 0 6 1991 -1 5 -1 1992 0 5 0 1993 -1 4 1994 -2 1995 -2 1996 US 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 4 -2 4 -1 -1 4 1997 0 1998 Note: Revisions show the rounded difference in index points between the data published on 6 March 2012 and 19 September 2012. Table R2: Revisions to current price GDP per worker Index points Canada France Germany 1990 0 1 0 1991 -1 0 -1 1992 -1 0 -1 1993 -2 -1 -2 1994 -2 -1 1995 -2 1996 Italy US G7 G7 exc. UK Japan UK 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 1997 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 -2 1998 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 1999 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 2000 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 2001 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 2002 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2003 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 2004 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2005 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 2006 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2007 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 2008 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 2009 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 2010 0 -2 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 Note: Revisions show the rounded difference in index points between the data published on 6 March 2012 and 19 September 2012. Table R3: Revisions to constant price GDP per hour Index points G7 G7 exc. UK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1999 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2000 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2001 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2002 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2003 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2004 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2005 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2006 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2007 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2008 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2010 0 -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK US 1990 0 0 1991 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 1992 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1993 0 0 0 0 0 1994 0 0 0 0 1995 0 0 0 1996 0 0 1997 0 1998 Note: Revisions show the rounded difference in index points between the data published on 6 March 2012 and 19 September 2012. Table R4: Revisions to constant price GDP per worker Index points Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK US G7 G7 exc. UK 1990 0 1 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 1991 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1992 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1993 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1994 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1995 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1996 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1997 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1998 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2001 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2002 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2003 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2004 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2005 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2006 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2007 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2008 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2010 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Note: Revisions show the rounded difference in index points between the data published on 6 March 2012 and 19 September 2012.
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