U.S. Science & Technology:
Issues and Outlook
by
Erich Bloch
Director
September 26, 2005
1
Innovation
“… intersection of invention
and insight; leading to the
creation of social and
economic values.”
SOURCE: Council on Competitiveness, Innovate America, 2004.
2
World Economy
3
Real GDP (PPP): Projections 2004 - 2015
(Using 1991-2003 Average Growth Rates)
Trillions of 1995 International Dollars
16
14
India
China
Brazil
Canada
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
Russian Federation
United Kingdom
Mexico
United States
China
United States
12
10
India
France
8
Italy
Germany
6
Japan
Brazil
United
Kingdom
Russian
Federation
Mexico
Canada
4
2
0
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
4
SOURCE: World Bank Institute, unpublished presentation, August 4, 2005
Global Competitiveness Rankings
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Finland
United States
Sweden
Taiwan
Denmark
Norway
Singapore
Switzerland
Japan
Iceland
11
12
13
14
15
19
30
46
55
SOURCE: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report 2004-2005
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Germany
Australia
Canada
Israel
Ireland
China
India
5
Ireland
• Size: 4,015,676 population / 70,280 sq km
• GDP: $126.4 billion / $31,900 per capita
5.1% growth rate
• Labor Force: 1.92 million
4.3% unemployment
• Higher Education:
– Doctorate-granting institutions:
8
– Total undergrad enrollment:
118,569
– Total graduate enrollment:
15,318
6
Adjusted for Inflation, U.S. Per Capita GDP Has
Increased by 50% Since 1985
Thousands of 2003 dollars per person
Per Capita GDP 1985-2004, Thousands of 2003 Dollars
39
37
35
33
31
29
27
25
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
SOURCE: Global Insight, Inc.
7
The U.S. Keeps Its Lead Over Developed
Economies
Per Capita GDP As a Percent of U.S. Level, Purchasing Power Parity Basis
100
Percent of U.S. Level
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Canada
SOURCE: Global Insight, Inc.
Japan
U.K.
Eurozone
8
IT Accounted for Nearly Half of Business
Investment
Investment as Percent of Total Business Fixed Investment, 2004
Structures
23%
Information
Technologies
40%
Industrial
Equipment
12%
Other Equipment
13%
Transport
Equipment
12%
SOURCE: Global Insight, Inc.
9
The Wide Dispersion in U.S. Incomes Persists
Mean Household Pretax Income, Thousands of 2003 Dollars
160
Thousands of 2003 Dollars
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Lowest
Second
Third
Fourth
Highest Quintile
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2003. Income excludes noncash
benefits.
10
Increase in U.S. Trade Deficit Accompanied by
Growing Federal Budget Deficit
Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits, Billions of Dollars
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
-700
-800
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Federal Budget
SOURCE: Global Insight, Inc.
International Current Account
11
Technology Balance of Payments
Millions of U.S. $
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
1981
1985
1991
1995
2001
2002
(5,000)
(10,000)
France
SOURCE: OECD STI Outlook, 2004
Germany
Italy
Japan
UK
USA
12
R&D
13
Federal Commitments to R&D Have Waned
US R&D Expenditures as a percentage of GDP: 1953-2002
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
Total R&D/GDP
Federal R&D/GDP
SOURCE: National Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources Statistics.
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1956
1953
0
Non-Federal R&D/GDP
14
Support for Engineering and Physical Sciences
Lagged
Federal Obligations for total research by field, millions of constant 1996
dollars
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Life Sciences
Physical Sciences
Environmental Sciences
Math and Computer Sciences
2003
Engineering
SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004.
15
Fast Growth in R&D Outside the U.S.
Demonstrates a Commitment to Innovation
Compound Annual Growth Rate in R&D Expenditures, 1991-2001 or Latest
Year Available
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
SOURCE: OECD STI Outlook 2004
ly
Ita
Fr
an
ce
an
y
G
er
m
U.
K
Ja
pa
n
.A
U.
S
Ca
na
da
Sw
ed
en
Ire
la
nd
Ko
re
a
0
16
Global R&D Investment Continues to Expand
Total R&D Investment as a Percent of GDP, 1991 and 2001
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
1991
SOURCE: OECD STI Outlook 2004
Italy
Ireland
Canada
France
Germany
U.S.A
Korea
Japan
Sweden
0.0%
2001
17
S&E Workforce
18
S&E Job Growth Projected to Exceed Overall
Job Growth Rate
Projected Increase in Employment, Percent Change from 2000 to 2010
100
90
80
70
60
47
50
40
30
20
15
10
0
All Occupations
SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004.
All S&E Occupations
19
Outside of Life Sciences, Undergraduate Degrees
in S&E Were Flat or Declining
Earned S&E Bachelor Degrees, select years 1977-2000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000
Physical sciences
Biological sciences
Mathematics
Engineering
SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004.
20
US Share of Worldwide S&E Degrees Awarded
Declined Significantly
Ratio of First University S&E Degrees to 24-year-old Population, 1975 and 2000, or
most recent year
it z
It a
ly
er
la
n
G
er d
m
a
C ny
N ana
et
he da
rl a
nd
s
Ja
pa
n
Sp
ai
n
Ire
la
nd
U
S
ni
w
te
ed
d
Ki en
n
So gd
ut om
h
Ko
re
Ta a
iw
an
Fr
an
c
Fi e
nl
an
d
U
Sw
N
ni orw
te
a
d
St y
at
es
um
lg
i
ico
Be
M
ex
C
hi
n
a
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1975
2000
SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004.
21
Noncitizens Account for Growth in S&E
Doctorates in US
S&E Doctoral Degrees Awarded in US, 1973-2001
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
19 73
19 76
19 79
U.S. White Male
19 82
19 85
19 88
U.S. White Female
SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004.
19 91
19 94
U.S. minority
19 97
20 00
Foreign
Total
22
Number of S&E Doctoral Degrees Awarded
Growing Faster Worldwide Than in US
Compounded Annual Growth Rate of S&E Doctoral Degrees Awarded, 19912001
China
Taiwan
South Korea
Japan
United Kingdom
France
India
Germany
United States
0
0.05
0.1
SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004.
0.15
0.2
0.25
23