REPUBLIC OF TURKEY
Background Brief: CENEX 2013
RECENT HISTORY
Turkey is a bridge between Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the Caucasus. In 2014, Turkey is
struggling with rampant border security challenges while at the same time seeking to establish
itself as a regional leader. As the Assad regime collapsed and was replaced by Syrian Islamic Front
(SIF), Turkey’s reticence to resort to force remained and its desire for a more significant leadership
role in the region expanded despite its border issues. Now the Turkish government is focusing its
attention on garnering acknowledgement from the US and Europe of the right to Turkish primacy in
the region and its importance in global affairs.
Since Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the Gaza Flotilla incident by offering an
apology and compensation for victims early in 2013, relations between Israel and Turkey have
normalized. Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan’s vocal condemnation against anti-Semitism has
continued to improve relations between the two countries and led to joint leadership on some small
security issues in the region.
Tensions between Turkey and Cyprus (South) have increased dramatically as Cyprus continues to
struggle to recover from a significant economic crisis followed by an EU bailout. The Turkish
government continues to actively block energy resource exploitation by the divided country and it
is unlikely that Cyprus will be able to utilize the energy resources until a political solution is
reached.
Pressure from both the US and Russia to in turn pressure the new government of Syria has
increased tensions between Turkey and its traditional allies. Despite the external pressure, Turkey
remains concerned that inopportune action could encourage the nationalist sentiments of Syria's
large Kurdish population, and result in violent action by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The
looming threat of a Kurdistan becoming a reality if the SIF is unable to reconstitute an integral Syria
has become a major concern. The last phase of Assad’s rule meant mobilization of left-wing proxies,
such as DHKP-C, which remains active, harming both US and Turkish interests. At this point,
Turkish-SIF relations remains tense but stronger the relations between the SIF and western
powers.
As a result of these events, Turkey is a cautious but adamant and protective actor. Turkey is now
carefully evaluating requests from allies, transitioning foreign policy, and leveraging opportunities
to advance its regional goals. There is a strong perception within the government that Turkey is
now a major rather than a minor player and should be treated as such. However, awareness is also
high that significant threats and border challenges could disrupt this fragile growth and set Turkey
back.
PERTINENT ISSUES
Military
The 2013 NATO deployment of six Patriot Missile batteries along the Turkey-Syria border to
provide Turkey with protection from possible Syrian aggression was completed in March of 2013.
The batteries are fully operational and manned by NATO troops, including a large US contingent;
sending a clear message to Syria and the region that NATO will not abide any significant attack on
Turkey. Despite this, cross border attacks continue to increase in frequency and KPP attacks in
recent weeks have escalated.
The Turkish military includes the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK), Turkish Land Forces (Turk Kara
Kuvvetleri), Turkish Naval Forces (Turk Deniz Kuvvetleri, includes naval air and naval infantry),
and the Turkish Air Force (Turk Hava Kuvvetleri). In 2011, the top military leaders resigned and
were replaced through appointment by President Gul, marking the first time that civilian leadership
had decided who commands the armed forces. Of note is an overhaul of the Turkish Land Forces
Command (TLFC) taking place under the "Force 2014" program which produced 20-30% smaller,
more highly trained forces characterized by greater mobility and firepower and capable of joint and
combined operations. The focus so far has been on joint operations with NATO and other countries
such as Georgia, Egypt, and China.
DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS
Turkey and Russia
Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan flew to Sochi, Russia, for a 16 May 2009 “working visit” with
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin at which he stated, “Turkey and Russia have
responsibilities in the region. We have to take steps for the peace and well-being of the region.
This includes the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, the Middle East dispute, the Cyprus problem.”
Putin responded that, “Russia and Turkey seek for such problems to be resolved and will
facilitate this in every way,” but, “As for difficult problems from the past – and the Karabakh
problem is among such issues – a compromise should be found by the participants in the
conflict. Other states which help reach a compromise in this aspect can play a role of mediators
and guarantors to implement the signed agreements.” Whilst on the subject of energy security
Erdogan stated that, “The agreement on gas supplies through the so-called Western route
signed in 1986 is expiring in 2012. We have agreed today to immediately start work to prolong
this agreement.” Putin made a reciprocal visit to Turkey in June.
Turkey and Georgia
Turkey-Georgia relations remain stable and continue to strengthen incrementally; the two
countries continue to cooperate extensively in energy, transport, and tourism. Of note is an EUzone type of arrangement designed to foster tourism wherein citizens are able to transit
between the two countries without requirements of a visa or passport. The two countries have
several major pipeline and rail line projects currently and are working actively to expand
cooperative transportation programs. Turkey views the Abkhazian and South Ossetian conflicts
as a potential danger to peace and stability in the entire region. In keeping with its desire for a
larger leadership role, Turkey has shown a readiness to be a negotiator for the Abkhazian
conflict. Turkey supports Georgia’s aspiration to join NATO and will begin planning Joint
Military Training Exercises in 2013. Turkey remains committed to supporting Georgia’s
territorial integrity.
Turkey and Germany
Turkey and Germany have a long history of strong bilateral relations and today German tourism
in Turkey and import/ export between the two countries remains very high. More than four
million German citizens travel to Turkey annually. Turkish immigrants also represent
approximately three million of Germany’s population making the most important immigrant
group in that country. German business ventures in Turkey have risen dramatically over the
last decade and Germany is currently the biggest foreign investor in Turkey. However, German
visa requirements for Turkish business men have created some moderate challenges for
reciprocal investment.
Turkey and Syria
Turkey resumed diplomatic relations with the new ruling SIF, however relations remain tense
as cross border attacks continue and the SIF continues to maintain an aggressive stance in all
bilateral and multilateral discussions. However, Turkey is against the proactive use of force in
resolving the issue through invading Syria and feels that such actions are likely to inflame PKK
factions in the region. Rising issues with the vast number of refugees on the Turkish side of the
border and the challenge of reducing those numbers has led to several stalled discussions.
Turkey and United States
Turkish-US relations have been strained recently due to diverging policies on Iran, Syria, Israel,
and an increasing religious-polarization of the majority of the AKP. Although the deployment of
the Patriot Missile batteries to the Turkish-Syrian border could have indicated a thawing of
these issues in light of the joint concern of Syrian aggression and instability, such a warming
was not realized in other issues facing the two countries. Currently, the US is gently pressuring
Turkey to take a harder line with the SIF, but Turkey’s focus on resolving its borders challenges
quickly has led it to resist such urging.
Turkey and IGO/NGO
Turkish leadership is largely frustrated with IGO attempts to manage the devolution of the
Syrian crisis and its politicization of acceptance for the SIF government due to its strong
religious stance.
Turkey has worked closely with several NGOs to provide for Syrian citizens affected by the civil
war over the harsh winter periods. One particular Turkey campaign--Bread and Blanket for
Syria--has received significant support from over 200 NGOs including the Turkish Red Crescent
Society, the Union of Civil Society Organizations of the Islamic World, the Bosnia-Herzegovina
Islamic Society, NGO Solidarnost Association, and Muslim Aid.
Public Statements Regarding Region
On IGOs: “UN Security Council has lost its credibility” said Foreign Minister Davutoglu and
criticized the inactiveness of the UN Security Council in view of the death of 70 thousand people
in Syria, and the desperation of the millions of Syrians in hard winter conditions.”
Foreign Minister Davutoglu: “All countries have a common perspective that the humanitarian
tragedy in Syria must end. Secondly, there is a risk that the Syrian crisis could spread to the
whole region. There is general understanding of the elimination of this risk. Thirdly, we all have
to display a clear and firm stance against extremist trends and the control of chemical
weapons.”
European Energy Commissioner Gunter Oettinger (German) on Turkey EU membership: “I
would like to bet that one day in the next decade a German chancellor and his or her
counterpart in Paris will have to crawl to Ankara on their knees to beg the Turks, ‘Friends, come
to us’.”