Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics Highlights November 2009 Bureau of Labor Statistics December 4, 2009 Employment in total nonfarm 1999-2009 Seasonally adjusted in thousands 140,000 140,000 137,500 137,500 135,000 135,000 132,500 132,500 130,000 130,000 127,500 127,500 November 2009 125,000 125,000 Level: 130,996 Change: -11 122,500 122,500 120,000 120,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, December 4, 2009. Notes: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in Dec. 2007. Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary. Employment in total nonfarm Over-the-month change, 2008-09 Seasonally adjusted in thousands 0 -11 -150 -72 -144 -122 -160 -137 -161 -128 -154-139 -175 -300 -303 -321 -450 -111 -304 -380 -463 -600 -519 -597 -681 -750 -681 -652 -741 -900 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, December 4, 2009. Note: Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary. • Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in November. • Since the start of this year, the magnitude of monthly job losses has decreased steadily. In the 3 months prior to November, total nonfarm saw an average job loss of 135,000, compared with job losses averaging 357,000 during the 3 months from May to July. From November 2008 to April 2009, payroll employment experienced the greatest monthly declines since the recession started, with monthly losses averaging 645,000. • Since the recession began in December 2007, payroll employment has declined by 7.2 million. 1 Employment in total nonfarm Over-the-year percent changes, 2008-09 3.0 Seasonally adjusted, percent 2.0 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -1.0 -2.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -1.1 -1.6 -2.2 -3.0 -2.7 -4.0 -3.1 -3.5 -3.8 -3.9 -4.1 -4.2 -4.2 -4.1 -3.9 -3.5 -5.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, December 4, 2009. Note: Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary. • In November, total nonfarm employment decreased by 3.5 percent over the year, an improvement over the decreases of 4.2 percent in the years ending in July and August. 2 Average weekly hours, total private 1999-2009 34.5 Seasonally adjusted 34.5 34.0 34.0 33.5 33.5 November 2009 Level: 33.2 33.0 33.0 Change: +0.2 32.5 32.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, December 4, 2009. Notes: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in Dec. 2007. Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary. Index of total private aggregate weekly hours 1999-2009 115 Seasonally adjusted, 2002=100 115 November 2009 110 Level: 99.1 Percent change: +0.6 110 105 105 100 100 95 95 90 90 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, December 4, 2009. Notes: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in Dec. 2007. Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary. Aggregate weekly hours are the product of average weekly hours and production and nonsupervisory workers. • In November, average weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 0.2 hour to 33.2 hours. • Despite recent increases in the average workweek, it remains 0.6 hour lower than when the recession began in December 2007. • The index of total private aggregate weekly hours rose by 0.6 percent in November. Despite the increase, aggregate weekly hours have fallen by 8.1 percent since reaching a peak in December 2007. 3 Over-the-year percent changes in average hourly earnings and CPI-W (1982-84=100) 1999-2009 8.0 Seasonally adjusted, percent Over-the-year percent changes November 2009 AHE: 2.2 6.0 8.0 AHE October 2009 CPI-W: -0.4 6.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 CPI-W -2.0 -2.0 -4.0 -4.0 Sources: BLS, Consumer Price Indexes program and Current Employment Statistics survey, December 4, 2009. Notes: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in Dec. 2007. Most recent 2 months of CES data are preliminary. Index of total private aggregate weekly payrolls 1999-2009 140 Seasonally adjusted, 2002=100 140 130 November 2009 120 Percent change: +0.7 Level: 124.1 130 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, December 4, 2009. Notes: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in Dec. 2007. Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary. Aggregate weekly payrolls are the product of average hourly earnings, average weekly hours, and production and nonsupervisory workers. • In November, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees rose 1 cent to $18.74. Over the past year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.2 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) fell by 0.4 percent over the year ending in October. • The index of total private aggregate weekly payrolls rose by 0.7 percent in November. Since June, aggregate weekly payrolls have increased by 1.1 percent after falling 5.0 percent following a peak in August 2008. 4 Employment in total nonfarm Over-the-month change, November 2009 Seasonally adjusted in thousands Mining and logging -1 Construction -27 Manufacturing -41 Wholesale trade -12 Retail trade -15 Transportation and warehousing Utilities -5 Total nonfarm: -11 -2 Information -17 Financial activities -10 Professional and business services 86 Education and health services 40 Leisure and hospitality -11 Other services -3 Government 7 -210 -180 -150 -120 -90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90 120 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, December 4, 2009. Note: Data are preliminary. • In November, payroll employment losses in construction, manufacturing, and information were offset by job gains in professional and business services and health care. • Although, some industries are still experiencing employment declines, the losses are much smaller in recent months. 5 Employment in construction Over-the-month change, 2008-09 0 Seasonally adjusted in thousands -30 -31 -34 -44 -44 -24 -44 -60 -64 -27 -46 -53 -56 -57 -61 -65 -69 -66 -79 -90 -98 -103 -113 -120 -123 -127 -135 -150 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, December 4, 2009. Note: Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary. Employment in construction Over-the-month change, November 2009 Seasonally adjusted in thousands 10 5.2 0 -0.5 -10 -0.6 -2.7 -9.0 -10.0 -10.4 -20 -24.2 -30 -40 -28.5 -36.5 November 2009 Prior 12-mo. avg. -50 Residential building Nonresidential building Heavy and civil engineering Residential specialty trades Nonresidential specialty trades Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, December 4, 2009. Note: Data are preliminary. • Construction employment experienced a decline of 27,000 in November, smaller than the average monthly decline of 63,000 during the prior 6 months. • Over the month, construction job losses were concentrated in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-29,000). • From a recent employment peak in January 2007 through December 2008, construction jobs losses were concentrated in the residential components. However, so far in 2009, nonresidential construction job losses have exceeded those seen in residential construction. 6 Employment in manufacturing Over-the-month change, 2008-09 0 -50 Seasonally adjusted in thousands -30 -33 -52 -49 -57 -51 -51 -41 -67 -65 -55 -41 -51 -41 -100 -119-121 -150 -123 -150-146 -172-172 -180 -200 -250 -262 -300 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, December 4, 2009. Note: Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary. Average weekly hours, manufacturing 1999-2009 42.0 Seasonally adjusted 42.0 November 2009 41.5 Level: 40.4 Change: +0.3 41.5 41.0 41.0 40.5 40.5 40.0 40.0 39.5 39.5 39.0 39.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, December 4, 2009. Notes: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in Dec. 2007. Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary. • In November, manufacturing shed 41,000 jobs, about in line with the trend over the prior 4 months, when manufacturing saw an average monthly employment decline of 47,000. Manufacturing lost jobs at a faster rate over the 9 months from October 2008 through June 2009, during which time 1.4 million jobs were cut. Factory jobs losses averaged 161,000 per month during that period. • In November, there were notable job cuts in machinery, computer and electronic products, and printing. • The factory workweek rose by 0.3 hour in November and has increased by 1.0 hour since May. 7 Employment in information Over-the-month change, 2008-09 10 Seasonally adjusted in thousands 3 0 -3 -1 -2 -6 -10 -4 -5 -7 -4 -4 -6 -11 -20 -13 -13 -11 -16 -17 -1 -5 -17 -21 -25 -26 -30 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, December 4, 2009. Note: Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary. • Employment in information declined by 17,000 in November, larger than the average monthly decline of 6,000 during the prior 5 months. In November, telecommunications accounted for about half the decrease, and losses continued in publishing. 8 Employment in temporary help services Over-the-month change, 2008-09 80 Seasonally adjusted in thousands 60 44 52 40 17 20 3 0 -1 -20 -40 -60 -23 -25 -38 -34 -37 -43 -34 -37 -48 -30 -45 -57 -54 -80 -100 -6 -73 -90 -73 -90 -120 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, December 4, 2009. Note: Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary. • Employment in temporary help services rose by 52,000 in November. Since reaching a recent employment low in July, the industry has added 117,000 jobs. • Since 1990, peaks and troughs in temporary help services employment have preceded those of total nonfarm employment on 3 occasions—temporary help services reached a high point in 2000, 10 months before total nonfarm; hit a low point in 2003, 4 months before total nonfarm; and reached another high point in 2006, 12 months prior to total nonfarm. 9 Employment in selected health care industries Over-the-month change, November 2009 Seasonally adjusted in thousands Ambulatory health care Ambulatory healthservices* care services* 12.6 14.7 3.8 of physicians OfficesOffices of physicians Outpatient care centers Outpatiant care centers 4.7 Prior 12-mo. avg.: +25.3 0.9 7.3 Home health care s ervices Home health care services 5.7 6.8 Hospitals Hos pitals Nursing and residential Nurs ing and residential care facilities care facilities Health care: November 2009:+21.0 -3.3 4.7 1.6 5.9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, December 4, 2009. Note: Data are preliminary. * Includes additional component industries not shown separately. 21 • Health care employment continued to rise in November (+21,000). • Home health care services and hospitals added 7,000 jobs each, accounting for the majority of November’s job gain. • Although health care continues to add jobs, the rate of job growth has slowed. So far in 2009, employment has grown at an annualized rate of 2.0 percent. In the 3 years from 2006 through 2008, health care had averaged an annual growth rate of 2.7 percent. 10 18
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