Labor force
T
he labor force is the number of people aged 16
or older who are either working or looking for
work. The labor force does not include members of the active-duty military or institutionalized
workers, such as prison inmates.
The size of the labor force depends on the population—determined by birth rates, immigration rates, and
.
42 Occupational Outlook Quarterly Winter 2003-04
death rates—and on the proportion of the population
working or actively seeking employment, which is
known as the labor force participation rate.
These measures vary significantly by age group, sex,
racial group, and ethnic group. Separate labor-force
projections are developed for each of these demographic categories.
The charts on labor force show change in the
following age groups:
◆ 65-year-olds and older
◆ 55- to 64-year-olds
◆ 45- to 54-year-olds
◆ 35- to 44-year-olds
◆ 25- to 34-year-olds
◆ 16- to 24-year-olds.
The charts also show labor force change among men
and women, among racial groups, and among Hispanics
and Latinos of any race. Because these are new categories from the U.S. Census Bureau, they differ from ones
used in the past.
The composition of the labor force changes because
women, men, and racial and ethnic groups have different age distributions, birth and immigration rates, and
labor force participation rates.
As in previous years, the size of the labor force is
projected to be smaller than the number of jobs, in part
because some workers have more than one job.
Population and labor force, 1992,
2002, and projected 2012
(Millions)
242
218
193
128
145
162
Numeric growth in population
and labor force, 1992-2002
and projected 2002-12
(Millions)
24
21
17
Civilian noninstitutional
population, 16 and older
1992
2002
14
Labor force
Projected 2012
Both the population and the labor
force are projected to continue growing steadily. By 2012, the number of
people working or looking for work is
expected to reach 162 million. That
number excludes those who are fulltime members of the U.S. Armed
Forces, are institutionalized, or are
under 16 years of age.
Civilian noninstitutional
population, 16 and older
1992-2002
Labor force
Projected 2012
Both the labor force and population
are expected to continue to grow.
.
Occupational
Occupational Outlook
Outlook Quarterly
Quarterly Winter
Winter 2003-04
2003-04 43
Labor force
Numeric change in labor force by age, projected 2002-12
(Thousands)
16 to 24
2,011
25 to 34
3,210
35 to 44
-2,493
45 to 54
4,429
55 to 64
8,308
65 and older
1,941
As the population ages, the number of people in the labor
force aged 55 to 64 is expected to have the most growth. The
number of 35- to 44-year-olds is expected to shrink as the
baby boomers shift to older groups.
Percent change in labor force by age, projected 2002-12
16 to 24
9%
25 to 34
10
35 to 44
-7
45 to 54
14
55 to 64
65 and older
51
43
Total labor force 12%
The number of people in the labor force aged 65 and older is
expected to increase more than 3 times as fast as the total
labor force, due, in part, to workers postponing retirement.
Compared with the total labor force, the number of workers
younger than age 45 is expected to grow more slowly or to
decline.
.
44 Occupational Outlook Quarterly Winter 2003-04
Labor force participation rate of men and women, 1952-2002 and projected 2012
(Percent of people in the labor force)
100%
100
80
80
Men
60
60
Total
40
40
Women
20
20
1952
1962
1972
1982
1992
2002
Projected
2012
The labor force participation rate for women is expected to continue to
edge upward as the men’s rate declines. By 2012, the gap in labor force
participation between the sexes will be even smaller.
Percent growth in labor
force of men and women,
projected 2002-12
14%
12
Labor force share of men and
women, 1992, 2002, and
projected 2012
(Percent)
55
10
53
53
45% 47% 47%
Women
Men
Total labor
force
The number of women
in the labor force is
expected to grow faster
than the number of
men…
Women
1992
Men
2002
Projected 2012
…but both men’s and women’s
shares of the labor force are
projected to stay about the same.
.
Occupational Outlook Quarterly Winter 2003-04 45
Labor force
Population and labor force, 2002
(Millions)
Men
6
19
22
2 65 to 74
9
10
14
8
12
18
11
16 to 24
33
19
15
25 to 34
18
22
17
35 to 44
18
20
15
45 to 54
20
Labor force
10
2
55 to 64
17
19
Population
Women
<1 75 and older <1
8
13
Age
32
0 to 15
In every age group, there were more men than women in the labor force in
2002—even in age groups that had fewer men than women in the population.
The difference was most striking in both the 25- to 34-year-old and 35- to 44year-old groups.
Population and labor force, projected 2012
(Millions)
Men
7
11
18
22
13
19
20
21
19
34
Population
Women
3
65 to 74
55 to 64
12
12
2
20
12
22
18
35 to 44
16
25 to 34
16
16 to 24
Labor force
11
1 75 and older <1
45 to 54
18
19
Age
12
20
21
19
0 to 15
By 2012, both the population and the labor force will be older. Men are expected
to continue to have higher labor force participation than women. Among women,
those aged 35 to 44 are projected to have the highest labor force participation rate.
.
46 Occupational Outlook Quarterly Winter 2003-04
33
Numeric growth in labor force by
race, projected 2002-12
(Thousands)
10,208
3,201
3,022
975
White
Black or
African
American
Asian
All other
Whites are projected to account for
more than half of all labor force
growth over the 2002-12 decade. The
“all other races” category includes
people of American Indian and Alaska
Native descent, Native Hawaiians and
other Pacific Islanders, multiracial
individuals, and any other people
who do not identify themselves as
white, black, or Asian.
Labor force share by race, projected 2012
(Percent)
Asian
6
All other
2
Black or African American
12
80
White
Although whites will continue to be the largest racial
category in the labor force, Asian workers’ projected
6-percent share represents a 51-percent increase over
the 2002-12 decade.
.
Occupational Outlook Quarterly Winter 2003-04 47
Labor force
Numeric growth in labor
force by ethnic origin,
projected 2002-12
Percent growth in labor
force by ethnic origin,
projected 2002-12
(Thousands)
11,562
33%
5,843
9
Hispanic or
Latino
Other than
Hispanic
origin
Hispanic or
Latino
The number of
Hispanic or Latino
workers is projected
to increase by nearly
6 million between
2002 and 2012,
accounting for more
than one-third of
total labor force
growth.
Other than
Hispanic
origin
The growth of the
Hispanic and Latino
labor force amounts
to an increase of 33
percent—a growth
rate more than 3
times as fast as that of
non-Hispanic workers
over the projections
decade...
Labor force share by ethnic origin,
projected 2012
(Percent)
Hispanic or Latino
15
85
Other ethnicities
...increasing the Hispanic and Latino
share of the labor force to 15 percent
in 2012.
.
48 Occupational Outlook Quarterly Winter 2003-04