Economic growth
T
he economy’s need for workers originates in the
demand for goods and services, which is measured by
the gross domestic product, or GDP. The GDP is a
measure of goods and services produced in the United States.
Domestic and international consumers—including individuals,
businesses, and governments—purchase items included in the
GDP. These purchases fall into five categories:
◆ Personal consumption expenditures. This category
includes purchases by individuals of goods (such as
automobiles, homes, clothes, and food) and services (such
as transportation, education, and healthcare).
◆ Gross private domestic investment. Major business
purchases, such as buildings and factories, machinery,
software, and computers, make up these investments.
◆ Government purchases. This category includes goods and
services purchased by Federal, State, and local governments.
◆ Exports. Exports are goods and services produced in the
United States and purchased by individuals, businesses, and
governments in foreign countries.
◆ Imports. Imports are goods and services produced abroad
and purchased by U.S. citizens, businesses, and governments. Because GDP measures production in the United
States, the value of imports is subtracted from the other
four categories of GDP.
Changes in the level and composition of the GDP will affect
industry production and employment levels. Similarly, an
increased level of business investment in microcomputers will
increase employment in the computer industry and in all those
industries, such as electronic components, that provide inputs to
the computer industry.
30 Occupational Outlook Quarterly
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Winter 2001-02
GDP distribution by major demand category, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010
(Percent)
1990
68.5
66.7 67.8
2000
23.0
19.2
P
ersonal consumption
expenditures are expected to
increase slightly, to nearly 70
percent of GDP. Exports and
investment are each expected
to significantly increase their
share of GDP, while
government expenditures
continue to decline.
20.7
18.6
13.5
Projected 2010
17.0
15.1
12.3
8.6
Imports
Personal consumption
expenditures
Gross private
domestic investment
Exports
Government
-9.4
-16.6
-25.6
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Winter 2001-02
31
Economic growth
Annual average growth rate of major GDP demand category,
1980-90, 1990-2000, and projected 2000-10
(Percent)
G
9.3
7.9
7.8
7.0
6.9
5.6
5.2
3.4 3.4 3.5
6.8
3.3
3.2 3.2 3.4
3.1
2.1
1.3
Personal
consumption
expenditures
Gross private
domestic
investment
Exports
Imports
1980-90
Government
1990-2000
rowth in personal
consumption expenditures is
expected to continue at 3.5
percent annually, about the
same pace maintained for
several decades. Other GDP
components, however, are not
as stable. Investments will
grow more slowly than over the
last 10 years but faster than
during the 1980-90 decade.
Imports and exports each will
increase by just under 8
percent annually.
Total, GDP
Projected 2000-10
Annual average growth of services components
of personal consumption expenditures, projected 2000-10
(Percent)
Household operation, telephone
7.6
Recreation services
6.0
Other household operation services
3.5
Personal business services
3.2
Household operation, electricity
2.9
Medical services
2.7
Transportation services
2.4
Housing services
-0.6
2.3
Household operation, natural gas
Other services
3.0
Total, all services
32 Occupational Outlook Quarterly
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Winter 2001-02
The services component of
personal consumption
expenditures is projected to
have healthy annual average
growth of 3.1 percent between
1990 and 2010. This growth
will be driven, in part, by a
large increase in spending for
telephone services, which is
expected to grow 7.6 percent
annually as people buy
information technology and
telecommunications services.
Annual average growth of goods components
of personal consumption expenditures, projected 2000-10
(Percent)
22.1
Personal computers
8.5
Drugs and medicines
7.4
Software
5.1
Furniture
4.3
Clothing and shoes
New light vehicles
3.5
Other motor vehicles and parts
3.1
Ophthalmic products
3.1
Food and beverages
2.3
Gasoline and motor oil
2.2
Fuel oil and coal
G
rowth in goods consumption
will be strong, at an expected
annual average of 5.1 percent.
The dominant component will
be purchases of personal
computers, which are expected
to increase by an average of 22.1
percent annually through 2010.
This growth is a result of
increased demand for personal
computers, emergence of
portable devices, increased
purchases of laptop computers,
and inclusion of computer
technology in other devices.
1.1
Tobacco products 0.8
Other goods
Total, all goods
5.1
4.1
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Winter 2001-02
33
Economic growth
Gross private domestic investment,
by selected components, 1980, 1990, and projected 2010
(Billions of chained [1996] dollars)
Business investment has climbed
1,295.0
1,195.2
1,145.6
847.3
643.5
613.0
290.3
187.6
45.9
1.2
14.2
10.6
Computers
Software
1980
34 Occupational Outlook Quarterly
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1990
Winter 2001-02
2000
All other investment
Projected 2010
steadily since 1980, including,
after 1990, enormous investment
in computers and software. This
increase is expected to continue
over the projections decade, with
expected 2010 investments in
computers approaching $1.2
trillion (in 1996 dollars) and
software approaching $613 billion
(in 1996 dollars). Comparatively,
all other investments combined
are expected to be about $1.15
trillion (in 1996 dollars) in 2010.
Annual average growth rate of selected components
of gross private domestic investment, 1980-90, 1990-2000, and projected 2000-10
(Percent)
1980-1990
35.2
1990-2000
Projected 2000-10
Although investment in computers
is expected to increase substantially
by 2010, the rate of increase is
expected to slow—dropping from
35.2 to 15.2 percent annually—from
the previous 10 years. Similarly, the
growth of investment in software
will decrease from 15.1 to 12.6
percent annually.
28.1
15.2
15.8
15.1
12.6
6.9
5.2
4.3
3.3
2.8
Computers
Software
Total, all investments
-1.2
All other investments
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Winter 2001-02
35