The Seventh Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue in Niigata
A-MASTEPANOV
Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue in Niigata
On the development of the new Energy
Strategy of Russia
(ESR-2035)
Prof. Alexey M. Mastepanov
Deputy Director OIL and GAS RESEARCH INSTITUTE of RAS
Member of the Board of Directors of Institute of Energy Strategy
October 30, 2014, Niigata, Japan
The energy strategy of Russia
Russia's energy strategy is the main document containing the system of sciencebased claims about the priorities of long-term energy policy and the mechanisms for
its implementation
Tools and mechanisms for implementation:
State the impact on the energy market
Pricing policy
Tax and customs policy
Improvement of legislation and regulatory framework
Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2030
(approved by the Government of the Russian Federation in November 2009)
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035.
October 30,
2014,
Niigata
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The Seventh Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue in Niigata
A-MASTEPANOV
Stages of implementation of the State Energy Policy of Russia
1992
The concept of the energy policy of Russia under new economic conditions
1995
Main directions of the Energy Policy
of the Russian Federation for the
period till 2010
Energy Strategy of Russia
(Main provisions)
2000
Main provisions of the Energy Strategy of Russia
for the period till 2020
2003
Energy Strategy of Russia for the period till 2020
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035.
October 30,
2014,
Niigata
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The correction of the Energy Strategy of Russia
The Energy Strategy should be updated at least once in five years.
In this regard, the government of the Russian Federation made a decision on the
correction of the Energy strategy of Russia for the period up to 2030, with its
prolongation until 2035.
Additional reasons for the need to adjust your Strategy:
¾ the prolonged stagnation of the world economy;
¾ the minimum increase of the energy demand both in Russia and in the world
markets;
¾ numerous geopolitical, social, and natural disasters - 2010s;
The optimistic scenario of ESR-2030 turned out to be unrealistic.
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035.
October 30,
2014,
Niigata
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The Seventh Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue in Niigata
A-MASTEPANOV
Key challenges
Internal
Slow post-crisis development of the economy and the increasing dependency of
the budget on fuel and energy complex;
The increase of energy prices for end consumers;
The need for rapid technological modernization for improvement of the
energy sector efficiency.
External
The stagnation or low growth of demand for Russian energy resources;
The transition from resource globalization to regional energy selfsufficiency;
Increased competition, including through the use of alternative and
unconventional energy resources;
External economic and technological sanctions.
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035.
October 30,
2014,
Niigata
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The roadmap project of ESR-2035
The draft revised Energy Strategy was developed by the Institute of Energy Strategy, together with
the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Analytical Center under the Government of
the Russian Federation and submitted to the Ministry of Energy of Russia.
The approval by the Government of the
Russian Federation of the outcome
document (November/December 2014)
October
2014
August-October
2014
January-July 2014
January 2014
The submission to the Government
of the Russian Federation
Completion of the project on the basis
of the comments received. Training
scenarios for sectoral master plans
Extensive public comment and
interagency coordination
Basic (coordinated within the Ministry of
energy) project ESR-2035
Currently the project reconciliation procedure is in the process with ministries,
agencies and state-owned energy companies
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035.
October 30,
2014,
Niigata
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The Seventh Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue in Niigata
A-MASTEPANOV
Draft of Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2035
The Central idea of ESR-2035 is the transition from resource to
resource-innovative development of fuel and energy complex
based on full use of domestic resources and innovative
capabilities through the formation of long-term technological
chains with their saturation innovative technologies.
The aim of the ESR-2035 is the creation of innovative and
efficient energy sector for sustainable economic growth,
improving the quality of life and promotion of its external
economic positions.
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035.
October 30,
2014,
Niigata
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Changing macroeconomic conditions
Average annual GDP growth
rate
The production of fuel and energy
(total)
million tons of coal equivalent
2300
In ESR-2030 - 4.7%;
In ESR-2035 – 3.8% (target scenario);
- 2.8% (risk analysis scenario).
2200
4,5
4,0
3,5
2100
3,0
2,5
2000
2,0
1,5
1900
1,0
0,5
0,0
1800
2012
Target scenario of ESR-2035
Risk analysis scenario of ESR-2035
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035.
October 30,
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
ESR-2030 (minimum)
ESR-2030 (maximum)
2014,
Niigata
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The Seventh Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue in Niigata
A-MASTEPANOV
Prospects of demand for energy resources of Russia
External demand
Domestic demand
MTCE/year
120
TCE per person/year
1300
9,0
115
8,0
1250
110
7,0
105
6,0
%
1200
5,0
100
1150
1100
4,0
95
3,0
90
2,0
85
1050
1,0
80
1000
2012
0,0
2012
2020
2025
2020
2025
2035
2035
the growth of energy exports in real terms (2010 = 100%)
domestic consumption of primary energy, MTCE
the ratio of exports to domestic consumption
per capita consumption of primary energy, TCE
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035.
October 30,
2014,
Niigata
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Strategic initiatives of energy sector development
The formation of oil and gas complexes with the
development of production, transport and social
infrastructure in Eastern Siberia and the Far East
The development of the hydrocarbon potential of the
continental shelf of the Arctic seas and the North of
Russia
The development of energy efficient technologies
The development of the domestic energy infrastructure
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035.
October 30,
2014,
Niigata
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The Seventh Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue in Niigata
A-MASTEPANOV
Strategic initiatives in the oil industry
• Stabilization of oil production
• Creation in the East of the country of the infrastructure for 20 25 % of total production and 40 % of exports of oil and oil
products
• The increase of oil recovery factor up to 40 - 45 %
• Preparation of explored reserves, infrastructure and
technologies for development of the Arctic shelf
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035.
October 30,
2014,
Niigata
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ESR-2035: the production and export of oil
Oil production
Oil export
Million tons /year
Million tons /year
Target scenario
Target scenario
Risk analysis scenario
Risk analysis scenario
Коэффициент извлечения нефти*
Million tons /year
Structure of export of oil (target scenario)
CIS
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035.
Europe APR
October 30,
2014,
Niigata
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The Seventh Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue in Niigata
A-MASTEPANOV
Strategic initiatives in the gas industry
• The increase of gas production of 35-45 %
• Creation in the East of the country of the infrastructure
for 15-20 % of total gas production and 35-40 % of exports
of gas
• Deep processing of up to 25-30 % of produced gas
• Liquefaction (LNG) up to 8-11 % of produced gas
• Extension of the Unified gas supplying systems to Eastern
Siberia and the Far East
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035.
October 30,
2014,
Niigata
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ESR-2035: gas industry
Gas production
Сценарий риск-анализа
Risk analysis scenario
Целевой сценарий Target scenario
Целевой сценарий Target scenario
Целевой сценарий Target scenario
Gas export
Domestic demand
Сценарий риск-анализа
Risk analysis scenario
Сценарий риск-анализа Risk analysis scenario
BCM/year
Structure of export of gas (target scenario)
Eastward. LNG
Eastward. Pipeline
Western direction. LNG
Western direction. Pipeline
CIS
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035.
October 30,
2014,
Niigata
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The Seventh Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue in Niigata
A-MASTEPANOV
The development of export infrastructure
The implementation of already planned projects: "South
stream", "Power of Siberia", the creation of LNG plants
The key task of ESR-2035 is the development of new
energy corridor (the Northern sea route)
LNG plant
New LNG plants
Pechora LNG
Yamal LNG
Far East LNG of Rosneft
Sakhalin II
Vladivostok-LNG
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035.
October 30,
2014,
Niigata
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The development of oil and gas infrastructure in the Far East
Oil complex
™ The development of oil and gas fields of Sakhalin oblast (on the continental shelf of the Okhotsk sea) and
oil deposits on the territory of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) (Talakan and adjacent fields) ;
™ Continued implementation of the projects "Sakhalin-1” and “Sakhalin-2";
™ The construction of the refinery in Primorsk region;
™ Modernization of oil terminals Nakhodka and De-Kastri
Yakutsk gas
production center
Irkutsk gas
production center
Sakhalin gas
production center
Gas complex
™ The formation of the Yakut gas Centre (on
the basis of the Chayanda field, with the
prospect of development of adjacent fields –
Srednebotuobinskoe, Taas-Urjahskoe,
Verhnevilyuchanskoe and others);
Oil and Gas chemistry
™ The construction
i off new LNG plants
l
iin Vladivostok
Vl di
k and
d
Sakhalin
™ Completion of construction of the gas pipeline "Power of
Siberia";
™ The gasification of the southern Federal district
The formation of oil, gas and petrochemical
clusters, large gas processing facilities and
chemical plants
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035.
October 30,
2014,
Niigata
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The Seventh Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue in Niigata
A-MASTEPANOV
Gas transmission system “Power of Siberia “
Chayandinskoye field
The total length of the GTS is about 4000 km, the design capacity of 38 billion
cubic meters of gas per year.
Implementation of projects in the East of Russia and of Energy Strategy as a whole opens
additional possibilities for further development of mutually beneficial Russian-Japanese
energy cooperation.
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035.
October 30,
2014,
Niigata
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Thank you & good luck !
On the development of the new
Energy Strategy of Russia
(ESR-2035)
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035.
October 30,
2014,
Niigata
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