Comparison
C
i
off Estimates
E ti t from
f
th
the C
Consumer
Expenditure Survey with 2002 Benchmark
Personal Consumption Expenditures from the
National Income and Product Accounts
Bill Passero
Senior Economist
Division of Consumer Expenditure Surveys
2010 American Council on Consumer
Interests Annuall Conference
C f
April 15, 2010
Data comparisons:
Wh needed?
Why

Such comparisons provide:
A sense of degree and direction of possible survey
errors, rather than an exact measure of bias
Specific estimates from other sources are not
necessarily the “truth”

Data comparisons are employed to:
Assess the cumulative effects of non-sampling
errors on quality
lit off CE d
data
t
Develop methodological studies to improve quality
Issues in Comparing CE and PCE




Populations
In PCE but out of scope
p for CE
In CE but out of scope for PCE
Partly
a t y out o
of scope for
o C
CE
Non-profit institutions serving households
Employer payments

Components operationally defined differently
Basics

CE

 Household Surveys
 Periodicity
–
–
–
–
Annual
Quarterly
Monthly
Weekly
 Expenditures
– Value of goods and
services purchased by
consumers
– Social Security
contributions
PCE
 Establishment Surveys
 Periodicity
–
–
–
–
Benchmark (detailed)
Annual
Quarterly
Monthly
 Expenditures
– Value of goods and services
purchased by the personal
sector
In PCE Out of Scope for CE
Population
 Employees of U.S. businesses working abroad and U.S.
government and military personnel stationed abroad
 Military living on-base in the U.S.
 All persons in institutions and the homeless for whom
expenditures
p
are made
 Non-profit institutions serving households
 Expenditures
 Value of home production for own consumption on farms
 Standard clothing issued to military
 Services furnished without payment by financial intermediaries
exceptt lif
life iinsurance carriers
i

Further Differences

Intra sector household transactions,
Intra-sector
transactions such as for
used cars or used clothing are in scope for CE and
out of scope for PCE

PCE items partly out of scope for CE and partly
defined differently
 Health Care Expenditures
 Religious and Welfare

Defined differently
 Education expenditures
 Life insurance and pension plans
 Owner-occupied housing expenditures (publication)
U d t off 2006 BLS St
Update
Study
d


Total Expenditures
Comparables
 To compare CE and PCE data, CE items are grouped into
PCE detailed categories
 In many instances, there is no perfect match between the
CE and PCE items assigned to an aggregate category
 In some cases, adjustments were made to published CE
categories for greater comparability
Reclassification of PCE categories in
2002 benchmark releases
Old
1 Personal consumption expenditures
New
1 Personal consumption expenditures
2
H
Household
h ld consumption
i expenditures
di
2
Food and tobacco
3
Clothing, accessories, and jewelry
4
Personal care
5
Housing
4
Clothing and footwear
6
Household operation
5
Housing and utilities
7
Medical care
8
Personal business
9
Transportation
7
Health
10
Recreation
8
Transportation
11
Education and research
12
Religious and welfare activities
9
Communication
13
Foreign travel and other, net
3
6
Food and beverages purchased for offpremise consumption
Furnishings, household equipment and
routine household maintenance
10
Recreation
11
Education
12
Food services and accommodations
13
Financial services and insurance
14
Other goods and services
15
16
Net foreign travel and expenditures
abroad by U.S. residents
Final consumption expenditures of NPISH
Reclassification of PCE categories in
2002 benchmark releases – cont.
cont
Old
1
Durable goods
2
Motor vehicles and parts
3
Furniture and household equipment
4
Other
5
Nondurable goods
New
1
2
3
Goods
Durable g
goods
M otor vehicles and parts
Furnishings and durable household
4
equipment
5
Recreational goods and vehicles
Oth d
Other
durable
bl g
goods
d
6
F d
Food
6
7
Clothing and shoes
7
8
Gasoline, fuel oil, and other energy goods
8
9
Other
10
Services
9
Nondurable goods
Food and beverages purchased for offpremise consumption
Clothing and footwear
10
Gasoline and other energy goods
11
Housing
11
Other non-durable goods
12
Household operation
12
13
Transportation
13
14
Medical care
14
Housing and utilities
15
Recreation
15
Health care
16
Other
16
Transportation services
17
Recreational services
18
Food services and accommodations
19
Financial services and insurance
20
Other services
21
Services
Household consumption expenditures
Final consumption expenditures of nonprofit
institutions serving households
Aggregate expenditures for all item
categories PCE and CE,
categories,
CE 2002
2002-2008
2008
PCE Aggregates
CE Aggregates
$10,000
$10,000
$9,000
$9,000
$8,000
$8,000
$7,000
$7,000
$6,000
$6,000
$5,000
$5,000
$4,000
$4,000
$3,000
$3,000
$2,000
$2,000
$1,000
$1,000
$0
$0
2002
2003
Total
2004
Durables
2005
2006
2007
Nondurables
2008
Services
2002
2003
Total
2004
Durables
2005
2006
Nondurables
2007
2008
Services
Aggregate expenditures for all
“comparable”
p
item categories,
g
,
PCE and CE, 2002-2008
PCE "Comparable" Aggregates
CE "Comparable" Aggregates
$6,000
$6,000
$5,000
$5,000
$4,000
$4,000
$3,000
$3,000
$2,000
$2,000
$1,000
$1,000
$0
$0
2002
2003
Total
2004
Durables
2005
2006
Nondurables
2007
2008
Services
2002
2003
Total
2004
Durables
2005
2006
Nondurables
2007
2008
Services
Ratio of CE aggregates to PCE
aggregates
gg g
for all categories
g
and
“comparable” categories, 2002-2007
1997 B Total 2002 B Total
1997 B Total
2002 B Total
1997 B Comp 2002 B Comp
1997 B Comp
2002 B Comp
2002
Total consumption expenditures
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
N d bl
d
Services
0.61
0.75
0 58
0.58
0.59
0.62
0.71
0 59
0.59
0.62
0.83
0.75
0 65
0.65
1.02
0.76
0.63
0 63
0.63
0.88
2003
Total consumption expenditures
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
Services
0.60
0.78
0.56
0 59
0.59
0.62
0.73
0.57
0 61
0.61
0.83
0.79
0.63
1 01
1.01
0.77
0.68
0.61
0 88
0.88
2004
Total consumption expenditures
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
0.60
0.74
0.59
0.58
0.62
0.62
0.64
0.61
0.83
0.69
0.66
1.01
0.77
0.64
0.64
0.89
Ratio of CE aggregates to PCE aggregates
for all categories and “comparable”
categories, 2002-2007 - cont.
1997 B Total 2002 B Total
1997 B Total
2002 B Total
1997 B Comp 2002 B Comp
1997 B Comp
2002 B Comp
2005
Total consumption expenditures
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
N d bl
d
Services
0.61
0.76
0 58
0.58
0.59
0.62
0.65
0 63
0.63
0.62
0.83
0.75
0 65
0.65
1.02
0.78
0.68
0 63
0.63
0.90
2006
Total consumption expenditures
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
Services
0.60
0.72
0.58
0 59
0.59
0.62
0.60
0.63
0 62
0.62
0.83
0.73
0.65
1 03
1.03
0.78
0.63
0.63
0 90
0.90
2007
Total consumption expenditures
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
0.59
0.68
0.56
0.59
0.60
0.58
0.61
0.61
0.83
0.69
0.63
1.04
0.76
0.58
0.61
0.89
Ratio of CE aggregates to PCE
aggregates
gg g
for “comparable”
p
1997
benchmark categories, 2002-2007
1997 B Comp
2002 B Comp
p
(1997 Cats.)
2002
Total consumption expenditures
g
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
0.83
0.75
0.65
1.02
0.82
0.67
0.66
0.98
2003
Total consumption expenditures
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
0.83
0.79
0.63
1.01
0.81
0.69
0.64
0.98
2004
Total consumption expenditures
g
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
0.83
0.69
0.66
1.01
0.82
0.60
0.67
0.98
Ratio of CE aggregates to PCE
aggregates
gg g
for “comparable”
p
1997
benchmark categories, 2002-2007- cont.
1997 B Comp
2002 B Comp
2002
B Comp
(1997 Cats.)
2005
Total consumption expenditures
Durable goods
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
0.83
0 75
0.75
0.65
1.02
0.81
0 65
0.65
0.66
0.98
2006
Total consumption expenditures
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
Services
0.83
0.73
0.65
1.03
0.82
0.64
0.66
0.99
2007
Total consumption expenditures
Durable goods
g
Nondurable goods
Services
0.83
0.69
0.63
1.04
0.80
0.60
0.64
0.98
Future CE/PCE Comparisons
Further
F
th research
h iinto
t construction
t ti off CE
categories comparable to detailed PCE
t bl categories
table
t
i
 Incorporation of new UCC items into
CE-PCE concordance
 2007 benchmark PCE data not likely
y
before 2012

Contact Information
Bill Passero
Senior Economist
Division of Consumer Expenditure Surveys
www bls gov/cex
www.bls.gov/cex
202-691-5126
[email protected]