University of Florida
Water Institute Symposium
Dealing
D
li with
i h Climate
Cli
Uncertainty
U
i
in
i
Operating a Reliable Water Supply
System
Alison Adams, Ph.D., P.E.
Tampa Bay Water
F b
February
27
27-28,
28 2008
1
Overview
z
z
z
z
Tampa Bay Water - Who we are and what
we
e do
Flexible and integrated water supply
system
Climate variability and uncertainty – why
it is important
p
Dealing with climate variability and
change
– Current operations
– Future planning
2
Tampa Bay Water- Where we are
2.5 Million
Residents Served
260 mgd
g total public
p
supply average daily
flow
•
•
•
Largest wholesale water
supplier in Florida
Largest wholesale water
supplier in Southeast
United States
A unique system in North
America
3
Integrated, Flexible and Diverse
pp y System
y
Water Supply
An integrated, flexible
and diverse system that
produces
d
a sustainable
t i bl
and reliable water supply
44
Tampa Bay Seawater Desalination
55
Enhanced Surface Water System
Tampa
Bypass
Canal
Alafia
River
I t k
Intake
Regional Surface
Water Treatment
Plant
66
C. W. Bill Young Regional Reservoir
Oct 2005 15.5 billion
gallons of storage
July 2007 Only 2 billion
gallons of storage
remaining
7
Operating Protocol Implementation Process –
Using
g recent data to make adjustments
j
8
40-month Cumulative Rainfall Deficits
5
0
-5
In c h e s
-10
51.2
-15
16 inch deficit
-20
-25
-30
29inches
inch deficit
29
-35
Oc No De Ja Fe Ma Ap Ma Ju J Au Se Oc No De Ja Fe Ma Ap Ma Ju J Au Se Oc No De Ja Fe Ma Ap Ma Ju J Au Se Oc No De Ja
t- v- c- n- b- r- r- y- n- ul- g- p- t- v- c- n- b- r- r- y- n- ul- g- p- t- v- c- n- b- r- r- y- n- ul- g- p- t- v- c- n04 04 04 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 08
Alafia River Watershed
Hillsborough River Watershed
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Cumulative Surface Water Availability
Cumulative Surface Water Withdrawals
45
40
35
30
BG
T h o u san d s
25
20
15
10
5
0
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Expected Total Surface Water
WY 2006 Cumulative Actual Withdrawal
WY 2007 Cumulative Actual Withdrawal
WY 2008 Cumulative Withdrawals to date
July
Aug
Sept
11
C. W. Bill Young Regional Reservoir
y
Summary
8
16
October 2006 14 BG storage
7
Nov. 2007 11.3 BG
M onthly Diversion
ns
(Billions of Gallon
ns)
5
4
12
10
July 2006 9.3 BG storage
8
3
6
2
4
1
2
July 2007 2.2 BG
0
0
-1
-2
-2
Storag
ge Volum
me
(Billionss of Gallo
ons)
6
14
-4
O- N- D- J- F- M- A- M- J- J- A- S- O- N- D- J- F- M- A- M- J- J- A- S- O- N- D- J05 05 05 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 08
Reservoir Influent
Month
Reservoir Effluent
Cumulative storage
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Source Reliability / Supply Certainty
z
z
z
River supplies depend on rainfall
Dry season supply depends on
reservoir water levels
System reliability in times of drought
depends on groundwater supplies
13
13
Water Shortage Mitigation Plan –
gg Objectives
j
Trigger
z
z
Hydrologic triggers are used to enter or
exit
it the
th various
i
water
t shortage
h t
levels
l
l
Two types
yp of triggers
gg
desired
1. Hydrologic indicators used to provide early
warning of a potential drought
2. Water shortage triggers used to describe
the severity of surface water supply
shortage
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Indicators Selected for Triggers
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Rainfall (RCD Rainfall)
– 12-month Rolling Cumulative Deficit rainfall
z
Streamflow (RMD Flow)
– 12-month Rolling Median Deficit in Hillsborough
River flow at Morris Bridge
z
Surface water storage (ResELEV)
– Regional Reservoir Elevation/volume
15
WSMP Triggers and Levels
Water Shortage Levels
Triggers
ON
OFF
I. Drought Alert
(Moderate)
RCD Rainfall < -5”
OR
RMD Flow < - 10 mgd
No RCD Rainfall
AND
RMD Flow > - 5 mgd
II. Drought Warning
(Severe)
RCD Rainfall < -5”
AND
RMD Flow < - 10 mgd
No RCD Rainfall
OR
RMD Flow > - 5 mgd
III. Regional Supply
Shortage
(Extreme)
RMD Flow < -10 mgd
AND
Reservoir Level drops below 100’
elevation (~60 days SW supply)
RMD Flow > - 5 mgd
OR
Reservoir Level moves above 110’
Elevation
IV. Water Supply Crisis
(Critical)
RMD Flow < - 10 mgd
AND
Reservoir Level drops below 85’
elevation (~20 days SW supply)
RMD Flow > - 5 mgd
OR
Reservoir Level moves above 100’
Elevation
16
Historical WSMP Simulations
RCD-rainfalll, in
RM
MD-flow, MGD
RCD-rainfall, RMD-flow, and ResELEV with simulated water-shortage-level declarations vs time (1977 -2007)
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
WSMP Level 1
WSMP Level 2
WSMP Level 3
WSMP Level 4
RCD-rainfall, in
-5 in
0 in
WSMP Level 1
WSMP Level 2
WSMP Level 3
WSMP Level 4
RMD-flow, MGD
-10 MGD
-5 MGD
ResELEV
V, ft
140
130
WSMP Level 1
120
WSMP Level 2
WSMP Level 3
110
100
90
80
70
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
WSMP Level 4
Reservoir level, ft
85 ft
100 ft
110 ft
17
Reservoir Levels Critical Indicator of
pp y Conditions
Water Supply
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z
In Tampa Bay Water’s
interconnected unique system,
interconnected,
system
water supply shortage levels are
linked to reservoir storage
Our interconnected system allows
us to manage between surface water
storage and ground water storage
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18
Why is climate variability and its uncertainty
important
p
to Tampa
p Bay
y Water?
z
Tampa Bay
T
B Water
W t is
i becoming
b
i
more reliant
li t
on surface water sources
Desalinated water
7%
Groundwater
35%
Surface Water
58%
Source of Regional Supplies in 2012
19
Future changes in climate may affect the water
resources upon
p which the region
g
depends
p
Plant City and St. Leo Annual Rainfall
Water Year Totals
(1904-2007)
100
Record
Highs
1959 & 1960
90
1945
El Nino
1998
2003
80
70
50
40
1999-2001
1932
2006-2007
30
1961
1961 Record
low
20
10
La Nina
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08
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0
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In c h e s
60
Plant City
St Leo
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Observed El Niño and La Niña phases
El Nino
La Nina
21
Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillations
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Adaptive Management Strategies for
g Range
g Planning
g
Long
Adaptive Management
– Support
pp
action in the face of uncertainty
y and
limited scientific knowledge
•
Implementation
– water supply planning, construction
programs, and operations
•
Feedback
– monitoring and review of economic and
environmental outcomes of management
actions
•
Re-evaluation
Feedback
Implementation
– Conceive new strategies (planning and
operational)
ti
l) as information
i f
ti
accumulates
l t
and understanding improves
•
Repeat loop until desired result is
achieved
Re-evaluation
23
Why is climate variability and its uncertainty
important to Tampa Bay Water?
Desalinated water
7%
Groundwater
35%
Surface Water
58%
Failure to adapt
p to climate change
g and climate
variability can be costly and hinder reliability and
environmental stewardship goals
24
Tampa Bay Water’s is proactive
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Collaborative climate research efforts
with University of Florida and NOAA
Risk-based modeling to incorporate
planning uncertainties
Adaptive management strategies in
both operational and planning agency
functions
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Questio
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A Complex System
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