Nuclear Proliferation and Intelligence
Dr Michael S. Goodman
Department of War Studies
[email protected]
1
‘I ask you to stop and think for a
moment what it would mean to have
nuclear weapons in so many hands, in
the hands of countries large and small,
stable and unstable, responsible and
irresponsible, scattered throughout the
world. There would be no rest for
anyone then, no stability, no real
security, and no chance of effective
disarmament’
2
‘…this was a major intelligence
success’
3
‘…a remarkable feat to the work of
the intelligence agencies’
4
‘such unadvertised intelligence
successes, though, pale against the
scale of the proliferation threat’
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‘the process of reading your
opponent’s mind’
9
‘I share a general belief that
President Saddam Hussein would
like to have an atomic bomb and
would use it if he could. But could
he acquire one?’
10
Strategic Intention
‘I share a general belief that
President Saddam Hussein would
like to have an atomic bomb and
would use it if he could. But could
he acquire one?’
11
Strategic Intention
‘I share a general belief that
President Saddam Hussein would
like to have an atomic bomb and
would use it if he could. But could
he acquire one?’
Tactical Intention
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Strategic Intention
‘I share a general belief that
President Saddam Hussein would
like to have an atomic bomb and
would use it if he could. But could
he acquire one?’
Capability
Tactical Intention
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Threat = Capabilities +
Intentions
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Capability = Intention?
15
Nuclear Weapons Programmes:
‹
Money
‹
Scientific Infrastructure
‹
Raw Material
‹
Industrial and Engineering Prowess
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Capability
Theoretical Capability
Practical Capability
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Capability Questions
‹
‹
‹
‹
‹
What is the state of the scientific
infrastructure in country X?
What level of training in nuclear-related
subjects is on offer?
Have scientists studied in other countries?
What engineering and scientific materials
can be produced indigenously?
What will be needed from outside the
country?
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Intent
Strategic Intention
Tactical Intention
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‘the real challenge for intelligence is
going to be getting to our political
leadership not just judgments about
capabilities, but judgments about real
intentions. And that is tough.’
Proliferation = Capabilities +
Intentions
24
‘One might anticipate a rough
correlation between the
possession of certain national
capabilities and a propensity
toward nuclear armament.’
25
‘There were a number of individuals
and companies which supplied the
components but were unaware of the
implications because some of the
components were similar to
components used in oil drilling, water
treatment and equipment for several
other general uses.’
www.rmp.gov.my
26
‘any nuclear threat related to
terrorism must arise from
unstable nuclear states losing
control of nuclear material.’
‘state which possesses nuclear weapons
and are not fully in control of their territory
or of their citizens.’
Nuclear Proliferation and Intelligence
Dr Michael S. Goodman
Department of War Studies
[email protected]
29