Visual Essay: Payroll Employment
Payroll employment growth accelerates in 2011
Parth A. Tikiwala and Frank Conlon
I
n 2011, nonfarm payroll employment experienced its
largest increase since 2006. Employment increased
1.8 million, or 1.4 percent, over the year. Within the
private sector, job gains averaged 175,000 per month,
compared with an average monthly gain of 104,000 in
2010. In contrast, government employment losses accelerated and averaged 22,000 per month in 2011, compared
with 18,000 per month the year before. Every other major
industry expanded payrolls in 2011, except the information industry, which continued its downward trajectory,
marking its 11th successive year of job losses.
This visual essay examines employment gains in 2011,
as measured using data from the Current Employment
Statistics (CES) survey, which is also known as the
Establishment Survey. The CES survey is a survey of
24 Monthly Labor Review • March 2012
employers that provides a monthly measure of the
number of payroll jobs in nonfarm industries, hours, and
earnings during the pay period that includes the 12th
of the month. The analysis begins with total nonfarm
employment and then examines specific industries that
changed notably over the year. The essay notes hours
and earnings data and their activity throughout the year
and compares employment growth with other economic
indicators.
This essay was prepared by Parth A. Tikiwala and
Frank Conlon. They are both economists within the
Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics,
Bureau of Labor Statistics. Email: Tikiwala.Parth@
bls.gov and phone: (202) 691–5483 and email: Conlon.
[email protected] and phone: (202) 691–6258.
1. Total nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted, January 2000–December 2011
Thousands
Thousands
140,000
140,000
138,000
138,000
136,000
136,000
134,000
134,000
132,000
132,000
130,000
130,000
128,000
128,000
126,000
126,000
124,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
124,000
NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
• Nonfarm payroll employment, as measured by the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey,1 expanded by 1.8 million in 2011, to 132 million.
• Job growth, at 1.4 percent, accelerated beyond the 0.8 percent gain seen in 2010.
• 2011 marked the largest over-a-calendar-year employment growth in magnitude and percent since 2006.
• As 2011 ended, however, nonfarm employment was still 5.8 million below its January 2008 peak.
Monthly Labor Review • March 2012 25
Payroll Employment in 2011
2. Percent change over the year in total nonfarm employment by industry, seasonally adjusted
Mining and logging
Construction
Manufacturing
Total nonfarm
Total nonfarm
2011: +1.4
2010: +0.8
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
2011 +1.4
2010 +0.8
Transportation and warehousing
Utilities
Information
Financial activities
Professional and business services
Education and health services
Leisure and hospitality
Other services
Government
–4 –2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Percent
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
• Most major industries in the private sector experienced job growth in 2011.
• Over the 12-month period ending in December, the diffusion index for total private employment was
65.2, compared with 58.5 at the end of 2010. An index value of 50 or more indicates that more industries
are adding than losing jobs.
• With the fastest growing employment relative to all other industries, mining and logging expanded
payrolls by 12.1 percent.
• Annual growth rates among other industries were more moderate, with professional and business services experiencing the second fastest rate of growth, at 3.4 percent.
26 Monthly Labor Review • March 2012
3. Over-the-year change in total nonfarm employment by industry, seasonally adjusted
Mining and logging
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Total nonfarm
2011: +1,840
2010: +1,027
Utilities
Information
Financial activities
Professional and business services
Education and health services
Leisure and hospitality
Other services
Government
–300 –200 –100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Nonfarm employment (thousands)
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
• Professional and business services experienced the largest increase—584,000 from December 2010 to
December 2011—in employment level. This gain accounted for nearly one-third of the total nonfarm job
growth.
• Another 22 percent of aggregate nonfarm job growth can be ascribed to the education and health services
industry, which added 401,000 jobs.
• The leisure and hospitality industry also added a large number of jobs—318,000—over the year.
Monthly Labor Review • March 2012 27
Payroll Employment in 2011
4. Average weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory employees in manufacturing, seasonally adjusted,
January 2000–December 2011
Hours
Hours
42.5
42.5
42.0
42.0
41.5
41.5
41.0
41.0
40.5
40.5
40.0
40.0
39.5
39.5
39.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
39.0
NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
•• Average weekly hours for production employees in manufacturing rose by 0.3 hour over the year.
•• During the latest recession (December 2007–June 2009), average weekly hours for production employees in
manufacturing decreased by 1.5 hours, or –3.6 percent.
•• Many other economic indicators ended 2011 on a positive note. For example, the Conference Board Lead-
ing Economic Index® for the United States, which uses CES average weekly hours in manufacturing as an
input, increased by about 3 percent over the year.2
28 Monthly Labor Review • March 2012
5. Index of aggregate weekly hours of all employees in the private sector, seasonally adjusted, January 2007–
December 2011
Index
(2007=100)
Index
(2007=100)
101
101
99
99
97
97
95
95
93
93
91
91
89
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
89
NOTE: Shaded area represents recession as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
• Aggregate weekly hours are the product of the average work week and employment. The index is calculated
by dividing the monthly aggregates by the annual average of aggregate weekly hours for 2007. As the employment rose and the average weekly hours increased, the index for aggregate weekly hours expanded by
2.6 percent in 2011.
• Average weekly hours for all employees in the private sector increased 0.2 hour, to 34.5 hours in 2011.
• The index of aggregate weekly hours for all employees in the private sector rose 2.6 percent in 2011 but was
still 5.0 percentage points below a peak in January 2008. Changes in the trend of aggregate hours tend to
coincide with changes in U.S. business cycles.
• Average hourly earnings for all employees in the private sector rose 2.1 percent in 2011. However, adjusted
for inflation, real average hourly earnings decreased 1.0 percent.3
Monthly Labor Review • March 2012 29
Payroll Employment in 2011
6. Over-the-year change in professional and business services employment, seasonally adjusted
Professional and technical services
Legal services
Accounting and bookkeeping services
Professional and business services
2011: +584 2010: +540
Architectural and engineering services
Computer systems design and related services
Management and technical consulting services
Management of companies and enterprises
Administrative and waste services
Administrative and support services
Employment services
Temporary help services
Business support services
Services to building and dwellings
Waste management and remediation services
–100 0 100 200 300 400 500
Employment (thousands)
NOTES: Major components within professional and business services are bolded. Professional and technical services and administrative
and waste services include industries not shown separately.
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
• Employment gains in professional and business services averaged 49,000 per month and totaled 584,000 in
2011, slightly above the 540,000 gained in 2010.
• The lion’s share of job growth during 2011 was divided among professional and technical services, which
added more than half, or 51 percent, of the jobs gained in the industry, and administrative and waste services,
with 42 percent.
• This distribution of employment gains contrasts to trends observed in 2010, when administrative and waste
services led the job growth, contributing 3 out of every 4 jobs added in professional and business services.
• This shifting dynamic resulted from a moderation in job growth for temporary help services; the temporary
help services industry had a 339,000 increase in payroll employment in 2010, followed by less than half that
number in 2011.
30 Monthly Labor Review • March 2012
7. Employment in health care services, seasonally adjusted, January 2000–December 2011
Thousands
Thousands
15,000
15,000
14,500
14,500
14,000
14,000
13,500
13,500
13,000
13,000
12,500
12,500
12,000
12,000
11,500
11,500
11,000
11,000
10,500
10,500
10,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 10,000
NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
• Employment in the health care industry grew by 297,000, or 2.1 percent, in 2011. This gain is consistent
with historical job growth in the industry.
• Health care services employment tends to be “recession proof.”
• Since 2000, the average annual growth rate for health care services employment has been 2.3 percent.
Monthly Labor Review • March 2012 31
Payroll Employment in 2011
8. Over-the-year change in health care employment by industry, seasonally adjusted
Ambulatory health care services
Offices of physicians
Health care
2011: +297 2010: +232
Outpatient care centers
Home health care services
Hospitals
Nursing and residential care facilities
Nursing care facilities
–10 40 90 140 190
Employment (thousands)
NOTES: Major components within health care are bolded. Ambulatory health care services and nursing and residential care
facilities include industries not shown separately.
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
• Similar to the gain in 2010, the majority of the employment gain in the health care industry in 2011
occurred within ambulatory health care services, in which employment grew by 191,000. This industry
provides health care services directly or indirectly to ambulatory patients and does not include inpatient services.
• Within ambulatory health care, substantial employment increases occurred in offices of physicians,
home health care services, and outpatient care centers.
• Employment in hospitals grew by 81,000, or 1.7 percent over the year, more than triple its percentage
growth in 2010.
• Job growth in nursing and residential care facilities (24,000) moderated in 2011, because employment
growth in nursing care facilities was essentially flat over the year.
32 Monthly Labor Review • March 2012
9. Annual growth rates of employment and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for accommodation and food
services, 2000–2011
Percent
Percent
10
10
8
Employment
8
PCE
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
–2
–2
–4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 –4
SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
• The leisure and hospitality industry added a considerable number of jobs to nonfarm payrolls in 2011. Employment rose by 318,000, or 2.4 percent.
• Much like in 2010, the near sole contributor of this job gain in leisure and hospitality was the food services
and drinking places industry. Employment within this industry tends to rise and fall with changes in personal
consumption expenditures for accommodation and food services.
Monthly Labor Review • March 2012 33
Payroll Employment in 2011
10. Over-the-month employment change in mining, seasonally adjusted, 2010–2011
Thousands
Thousands
16
14
12
16
Support activities for mining
Mining except oil and gas
Oil and gas extraction
14
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
–2
–2
Jan Jul Jan Jul Dec 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
• Mining employment grew by 12.8 percent over the year, making it the fastest growing industry.
• In 2010, the average over-the-month change for mining employment was about 6,000, while in 2011, this
figure increased slightly to more than 7,000.
• Oil and gas extraction added 25,000 jobs over the year. More specifically, employment in support for oil and
gas rose by 38,000, or 17.5 percent.
34 Monthly Labor Review • March 2012
11. Over-the-month employment change in durable and nondurable goods manufacturing, seasonally adjusted,
2010–2011
Thousands
Thousands
60
60
50
Durable goods
50
Nondurable goods
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
–10
–10
–20
–20
–30
–30
Jan Jul Jan Jul Dec 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
• In 2011, manufacturing employment increased by 233,000, the largest annual job gain for the industry
since 1997.
• Durable goods employment gained 242,000, or 3.4 percent in 2011. This employment gain was 116,000
more than that of 2010.
• Nondurable goods employment averaged a loss of 1,000 jobs per month in 2011, and netted a total loss
of 9,000 for the year.
Monthly Labor Review • March 2012 35
Payroll Employment in 2011
12. Over-the-year employment change in selected durable goods manufacturing industries, seasonally adjusted,
2010–2011
Fabricated metal products
Durable goods
2011: +242
2010: +126
Machinery
Motor vehicles and parts
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Employment (thousands)
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
• Durable goods industry employment grew by 242,000.
• The 2011 job growth among durable goods industries was concentrated in fabricated metal products,
machinery, and motor vehicles and parts manufacturing.
• Continued improvement in economic indicators related to manufacturing support employment gains.
New orders for durable goods rose 17 percent, industrial production rose by 8 percent, and motor vehicle production rose by 31 percent in 2011. Motor vehicle sales increased by 8 percent over the same
period.4
36 Monthly Labor Review • March 2012
13. Over-the-year employment change in retail trade, seasonally adjusted, 2010–2011
Motor vehicle and parts dealers
Furniture and home furnishings stores
Electronic and appliance stores
Building material and garden supply stores
Retail trade
2011: +218 2010: +161
Food and beverage stores
Health and personal care stores
Gasoline stations
Clothing and clothing accessories stores
Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores
General merchandise stores
Miscellaneous store retailers
Nonstore retailers
–30 –10 10 30 50 70 90 110
Employment (thousands)
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
• Employment in retail trade continued to grow in 2011, accelerating slightly over 2010. Employment
growth was concentrated largely in general merchandise stores, which added 77,000 jobs, while jobs in
other types of retailers grew more moderately.
• Electronic and appliance stores and sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores experienced employment declines over the year.
• Employment growth in retail trade was driven, in part, by an increase in retail sales in 2011. According to
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, retail sales increased by 6 percent during the year.5
Monthly Labor Review • March 2012 37
Payroll Employment in 2011
14. Employment in construction, seasonally adjusted, 2000–2011
Thousands
Thousands
8,000
8,000
7,500
7,500
7,000
7,000
6,500
6,500
6,000
6,000
5,500
5,500
5,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
5,000
NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
• Construction employment increased by 69,000, or 1.3 percent, in 2011. This job gain marks the industry’s
first calendar-year employment increase since 2006.
• While hitting an employment peak in April 2006 and a trough in January 2011, the construction industry
has been experiencing a severe housing crisis. Construction employment within the peak-to-trough period
declined by 2.3 million, or 29.4 percent. Despite gains in 2011, employment was still 2.2 million below its
prerecession peak level.
• Over the year, employment edged up in residential and nonresidential (including heavy) construction. The
largest gains occurred in specialty trade contractors, which accounted for 3 out of every 5 jobs gained in
construction, nearly the same ratio at which the industry lost jobs during the prior 4 years.
• The improvement in construction employment was also reflected in industrywide economic indicators in
2011. The number of building permits issued rose by nearly 7 percent, and spending on both residential and
nonresidential construction increased.6
38 Monthly Labor Review • March 2012
15. Index of employment of state and local governments, seasonally adjusted, January 2007–December 2011
Index
(August 2008=100)
Index
(August 2008=100)
101.0
101.0
100.5
100.5
100.0
State government
Local government
100.0
99.5
99.5
99.0
99.0
98.5
98.5
98.0
98.0
97.5
97.5
97.0
97.0
96.5
96.5
96.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
96.0
NOTE: Indexes shown in the chart are the monthly employment level divided by the employment level of August
2008, and the quotient is multiplied by 100. These indexes show the relative change in employment from August 2008.
The vertical line represents August 2008.
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
• Marking its third consecutive year of decline, government employment continued to decrease in 2011,
as state and local government payrolls decreased by 230,000 workers.
• Local government accounted for 150,000 of the job loss in 2011, while employment in state government fell by 80,000.
• Reduced revenues for local and state governments have led to budget cuts and resulting job losses. In
2011, 19 states enacted midyear budget cuts totaling $7.4 billion.7
• Since reaching employment peaks in August 2008, local government has lost 496,000 jobs and state
government lost 159,000 jobs through December 2011.
• The U.S. Postal Service, with 27,000 jobs lost, continued a longrun decline over the year.
Notes
1
The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program is a monthly survey of about 141,000 businesses and government agencies
representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites. For more information on the program’s concepts and methodology, see
“Technical Notes to Establishment Survey Data” at http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn1.htm. To access CES data, see “Current
Employment Statistics—CES (National)” at www.bls.gov/ces. The CES data used in this article are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise
noted.
2
For more information on The Conference Board, see “Global Business Cycle Indicators” (New York, The Conference Board Inc.) at
Monthly Labor Review • March 2012 39
Payroll Employment in 2011
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1.
3
To obtain constant-dollar or real earnings, the Bureau of Labor Statistics deflates current dollar series for all employees using the Consumer
Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
4
For data on new orders for durable goods, see “Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, & Orders” on the Census Bureau website at http://
www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/. For industrial production data, see “Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization-G.17” at http://
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/Current/default.htm. For motor vehicle sales data, see “Auto and Truck Seasonal Adjustment, Table 1:
Motor Vehicle Unit Retail Sales” at www.bea.gov/national/xls/gap_hist.xls.
5
For statistics data on retail sales, see “Table 1A. Estimated Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, by Kind of Business” at http://www.
census.gov/retail/marts/www/download/text/advt1.txt.
6
For data on building permits and expenditures on residential and nonresidential construction, see “Guide to Data Sources from the U.S.
Census Bureau” at http://www.census.gov/econ/construction.html.
7
For more information on the fiscal condition of U.S. states, see “The Fiscal Survey of States” (The National Governors Association and The
National Association of State Budget Officers, fall 2011) at http://www.nasbo.org/publications-data/fiscal-survey-of-the-states.
40 Monthly Labor Review • March 2012