United States
Department
of Labor
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Internet:
http://www.bls.gov/emp
Technical Information: (202) 691-5700
Media Contact:
(202) 691-5902
Washington, D.C. 20212
USDL 05-2276
For release: 10 A.M. EST
Wednesday, December 7, 2005
BLS RELEASES 2004-14 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor, today released
projections on future job growth by industry and occupation and on the likely composition
of the workforce pursuing those jobs.
The 10-year projections—covering the 2004–14 decade—of economic growth,
employment by industry and occupation, and labor force are widely used in career guidance,
in planning education and training programs, and in studying long-range employment
trends. These projections, which are updated every 2 years, continue a nearly 60-year
tradition of providing advice to individuals who are entering the job market, changing
careers, or making further education and training choices.
Employment
Over the 2004–14 decade, total employment is projected to increase by 18.9 million
jobs, or 13 percent. Over the previous decade (1994-2004), total employment grew at the
same annual rate and increased by 16.4 million jobs.
Industry employment
•
Employment growth will continue to be concentrated in the service-providing sector
of the economy. Educational services, health care and social assistance, and
professional and business services represent the industry sectors with the strongest
employment growth; these sectors are projected to grow more than twice as fast as
the overall economy. (See table 1.)
•
Construction employment is projected to grow, but at a slower pace than during the
previous decade (1994-2004). Manufacturing employment, however, is expected to
decline by 5 percent, much less than the 16 percent decline that occurred in the
previous decade. Nonetheless, employment in goods-producing industries is
expected to decrease from 15 percent to 13 percent of total employment.
•
The 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth, led
by employment services, local government education, and offices of physicians, are
in the service-providing sector. (See table 3a.)
•
Eight out of the 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary employment
declines, including cut and sew apparel manufacturing, are in the manufacturing
sector. (See table 3b.)
Occupational employment
•
Professional and related occupations and service occupations—two groups on
opposite ends of the educational and earnings ranges—are projected to add the most
jobs, accounting for 6 out of 10 new jobs created over the 2004-14 period. (See
table 2.)
•
Business and financial operations occupations, professional and related occupations,
and service occupations are projected to grow faster than the 13 percent average for
all occupations.
•
Production occupations and farming, fishing, and forestry occupations are projected
to lose employment over the period.
•
Nine of the 10 fastest growing occupations are health or computer (information
technology) occupations. (See table 3c.)
•
Five of the 10 occupations adding the most jobs are service occupations. (See table
3d.)
Education and training categories
•
An associate or bachelor's degree is the most significant source of postsecondary
education or training for 6 of the 10 fastest growing occupations. (See table 3c.)
•
Short-term on-the-job training is the most significant source of postsecondary
education or training for 5 of the 10 occupations with the largest job growth. (See
table 3d.)
Labor force
•
The civilian labor force is projected to increase by 14.7 million over the 2004–14
decade, reaching 162.1 million by 2014. This 10 percent increase is less than the
12.5-percent increase over the previous decade, 1994–2004, when the labor force
grew by 16.3 million. (See table 4.) The labor force will change in composition, as
a result of changes in both the composition of the population and in the rates of labor
force participation across demographic groups.
•
The projected labor force growth will be affected by the aging of the baby-boom
generation—persons born between 1946 and 1964. In 2014, baby-boomers will be
ages 50 to 68 years, and this age group will grow significantly over the 2004–14
period. The labor force will continue to age, with the number of workers in the 55and-older group projected to grow by 49.1 percent, nearly 5 times the 10 percent
growth projected for the overall labor force. Youths—those between the ages of 16
and 24—will decline in numbers and lose share of the labor force, from 15.1 percent
in 2004 to 13.7 percent in 2014. Prime-age workers—those between the ages of 25
and 54—also will lose share of the labor force, from 69.3 percent in 2004 to 65.2
percent in 2014. The 55-and-older age group, on the other hand, is projected to gain
share of the labor force, from 15.6 percent to 21.2 percent.
•
Over the 2004–14 projection period, the number of women in the labor force is
projected to grow by 10.9 percent, faster than the 9.1-percent growth projected for
men. As a result, women's share of the labor force is expected to increase from 46.4
percent in 2004 to 46.8 percent by 2014. In contrast, men's share is projected to
decline from 53.6 percent to 53.2 percent over the decade.
•
By 2014, the Hispanic labor force is expected to reach 25.8 million, due to faster
population growth resulting from a younger population, higher fertility rates, and
increased immigration levels. Despite relatively slow growth, whites will remain the
largest group, composing 80.2 percent of the labor force. Blacks will constitute 12.0
percent of the labor force. Asians will continue to be the fastest growing race group,
climbing to 5.1 percent of the labor force in 2014.
A note on labor shortages in the context of long-term economic projections
The measures upon which the employment projections and labor force projections are based
are different. The former is a count of jobs and the latter a count of individuals. Users of
these data should not assume that the difference between the projected increase in the labor
force and the projected increase in employment implies a labor shortage or surplus. The
BLS projections assume a labor market in equilibrium, i.e., one where labor supply meets
labor demand except for some degree of frictional unemployment. For a discussion of the
basic projection methodology, see "A summary of BLS projections to 2014," Norman C.
Saunders, November 2005 Monthly Labor Review. For a discussion of labor shortages in
the context of long-term projection models, see "Employment projections to 2012: concepts
and context," Michael W. Horrigan, February 2004 Monthly Labor Review.
Notes
More detailed information on the 2004–14 projections appears in five articles in the
November 2005 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. The Review is available online at:
www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/welcome.htm. A graphic presentation of the highlights of the
projections will appear in the forthcoming Winter 2005–06 Occupational Outlook Quarterly.
The Quarterly is available online at: www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/ooqhome.htm.
The Monthly Labor Review and Occupational Outlook Quarterly are sold by the U.S.
Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. The Review costs $49 a year; single
copies are $15. The Quarterly costs $15 a year; single copies are $6. For additional
information, contact the Superintendent of Documents at: www.access.gpo.gov.
Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon
request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200; TDD message referral phone: 1-800-877-8339.
Table 1. Employment by major industry sector, 1994, 2004, and projected 2014
(Numbers in thousands)
Employment
Industry sector
1994
Numeric Change
2004
2014
129,245.9
145,612.3
164,539.9
16,366.4
18,927.6
12.7
114,983.8
132,191.7
150,876.9
17,207.9
18,685.2
Goods-producing, excluding agriculture
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
22,691.6
576.5
5,094.9
17,020.2
21,817.3
523.2
6,964.5
14,329.6
21,787.3
477.4
7,756.9
13,553.0
-874.3
-53.3
1,869.6
-2,690.6
Service-providing
Utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Financial activities
Professional and business services
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Leisure and hospitality
Other services
Federal government
State and local government
92,292.2
689.4
5,247.5
13,491.1
3,701.1
2,738.6
6,866.9
12,173.9
1,894.8
10,911.9
10,099.8
5,202.1
3,018.0
16,257.1
110,374.4
570.1
5,654.9
15,034.5
4,250.0
3,138.3
8,051.9
16,413.7
2,766.4
14,187.2
12,479.1
6,209.9
2,727.5
18,890.9
129,089.6
562.6
6,130.8
16,683.2
4,755.9
3,502.1
8,901.3
20,979.9
3,664.5
18,482.1
14,693.8
6,943.4
2,770.9
21,019.1
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting3
Agriculture wage and salary
Agriculture self-employed and unpaid family workers
2,890.1
1,381.0
1,509.1
2,139.9
1,149.2
990.7
Nonagriculture self-employed and unpaid family worker
Secondary wage and salary jobs in agriculture and private
household industries 4
9,360.0
Total
1
Nonagriculture wage and salary2
5
Secondary jobs as a self-employed or unpaid family worker
1
1994-2004
2004-14
Percent change
1994-2004 2004-14
Average annual rate
of change
Percent distribution
1994
2004
2014
1994-2004 2004-14
13.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1.2
1.2
15.0
14.1
89.0
90.8
91.7
1.4
1.3
-30.0
-45.8
792.4
-776.6
-3.9
-9.2
36.7
-15.8
-0.1
-8.8
11.4
-5.4
17.6
0.4
3.9
13.2
15.0
0.4
4.8
9.8
13.2
0.3
4.7
8.2
-0.4
-1.0
3.2
-1.7
0.0
-0.9
1.1
-0.6
18,082.2
-119.3
407.4
1,543.4
548.9
399.7
1,185.0
4,239.8
871.6
3,275.3
2,379.3
1,007.8
-290.5
2,633.8
18,715.2
-7.5
475.9
1,648.7
505.9
363.8
849.4
4,566.2
898.1
4,294.9
2,214.7
733.5
43.4
2,128.2
19.6
-17.3
7.8
11.4
14.8
14.6
17.3
34.8
46.0
30.0
23.6
19.4
-9.6
16.2
17.0
-1.3
8.4
11.0
11.9
11.6
10.5
27.8
32.5
30.3
17.7
11.8
1.6
11.3
71.4
0.5
4.1
10.4
2.9
2.1
5.3
9.4
1.5
8.4
7.8
4.0
2.3
12.6
75.8
0.4
3.9
10.3
2.9
2.2
5.5
11.3
1.9
9.7
8.6
4.3
1.9
13.0
78.5
0.3
3.7
10.1
2.9
2.1
5.4
12.8
2.2
11.2
8.9
4.2
1.7
12.8
1.8
-1.9
0.8
1.1
1.4
1.4
1.6
3.0
3.9
2.7
2.1
1.8
-1.0
1.5
1.6
-0.1
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
2.5
2.9
2.7
1.6
1.1
0.2
1.1
1,910.0
1,089.7
820.3
-750.2
-231.8
-518.4
-229.9
-59.5
-170.4
-26.0
-16.8
-34.4
-10.7
-5.2
-17.2
2.2
1.1
1.2
1.5
0.8
0.7
1.2
0.7
0.5
-3.0
-1.8
-4.1
-1.1
-0.5
-1.9
9,556.4
10,011.9
196.4
455.5
2.1
4.8
7.2
6.6
6.1
0.2
0.5
182.0
137.6
126.8
-44.4
-10.8
-24.4
-7.8
0.1
0.1
0.1
-2.8
-0.8
1,830.0
1,586.7
1,614.3
-243.3
27.6
-13.3
1.7
1.4
1.1
1.0
-1.4
0.2
Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics survey, which counts jobs, whereas self-employed, unpaid family workers, and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting
are from the Current Population Survey (household survey), which counts workers.
2
Includes wage and salary data from the Current Employment Statistics survey, except private households, which is from the Current Population Survey. Logging workers are excluded.
3
Includes agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting data from the Current Population Survey, except logging, which is from Current Employment Statistics survey. Government wage and salary workers are excluded.
4
Workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job in agricultural production, forestry, fishing, and private household industries.
5
Wage and salary workers who hold a secondary job as a self-employed or unpaid family worker
Table 2. Employment by major occupational group, 2004 and projected 2014
(Numbers in thousands)
Occupational group
Total, all occupations
Management occupations
Business and financial operations occupations
Professional and related occupations
Computer and mathematical science occupations
Architecture and engineering occupations
Life, physical, and social science occupations
Community and social services occupations
Legal occupations
Education, training, and library occupations
Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations
Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations
Service occupations
Healthcare support occupations
Protective service occupations
Food preparation and serving related occupations
Employment
Number
Percent distribution
2004
2014
2004
2014
145,612.3 164,539.9
100.0
100.0
Change
Number
Percent
18,927.6
13.0
9,114.7
5,872.8
28,544.0
3,152.8
2,519.9
1,315.7
2,317.1
1,220.2
8,698.0
2,515.0
6,805.3
27,672.6
3,492.3
3,137.6
10,739.2
10,146.8
6,995.5
34,590.2
4,119.8
2,834.7
1,531.6
2,800.2
1,414.2
10,438.0
2,890.3
8,561.4
32,929.7
4,656.2
3,578.0
12,453.2
6.3
4.0
19.6
2.2
1.7
0.9
1.6
0.8
6.0
1.7
4.7
19.0
2.4
2.2
7.4
6.2
4.3
21.0
2.5
1.7
0.9
1.7
0.9
6.3
1.8
5.2
20.0
2.8
2.2
7.6
1,032.0
1,122.7
6,046.3
967.0
314.8
215.9
483.1
194.0
1,740.0
375.3
1,756.1
5,257.2
1,163.9
440.3
1,714.0
11.3
19.1
21.2
30.7
12.5
16.4
20.8
15.9
20.0
14.9
25.8
19.0
33.3
14.0
16.0
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations
5,582.2
Personal care and service occupations
4,721.2
Sales and related occupations
15,330.2
Office and administrative support occupations
23,907.0
Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations
1,025.9
Construction and extraction occupations
7,738.5
Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations
5,747.5
Production occupations
10,561.7
Transportation and material moving occupations
10,097.6
NOTE: Detail may not equal total or 100 percent because of rounding.
6,529.7
5,712.7
16,806.4
25,287.3
1,013.0
8,669.4
6,404.5
10,483.1
11,214.0
3.8
3.2
10.5
16.4
0.7
5.3
3.9
7.3
6.9
4.0
3.5
10.2
15.4
0.6
5.3
3.9
6.4
6.8
947.5
991.4
1,476.3
1,380.3
-12.9
930.9
657.0
-78.6
1,116.4
17.0
21.0
9.6
5.8
-1.3
12.0
11.4
-0.7
11.1
1
Table 3a. The 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth, 2004-14
(Numbers in thousands)
Employment
Change
Industry
2004
2014
Number
Percent
Employment services
3,470.3
5,050.2
1,579.9
45.5
Local government educational services
7,762.5
8,545.5
783.0
10.1
Local government, excluding education and hospitals
5,485.6
6,249.3
763.7
13.9
Offices of physicians
2,053.9
2,813.4
759.5
37.0
Full-service restaurants
4,226.4
4,927.8
701.4
16.6
General medical and surgical hospitals, private
4,050.9
4,699.0
648.1
16.0
Limited-service eating places
3,726.7
4,318.6
591.9
15.9
Home health care services
773.2
1,310.3
537.1
69.5
Colleges, universities, and professional schools, private
1,377.5
1,849.8
472.3
34.3
Management, scientific, and technical consulting services
779.0
1,250.2
471.2
60.5
1
Data are from the National Employment Matrix.
1
Table 3b. The 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary employment declines, 2004-14
(Numbers in thousands)
Employment
Change
Industry
2004
2014
Number
Percent
Wired telecommunications carriers
548.4
380.1
-168.3
-30.7
Cut and sew apparel manufacturing
219.9
80.0
-139.9
-63.6
Printing and related support activities
665.0
600.1
-64.9
-9.8
Fabric mills
115.7
60.0
-55.7
-48.1
Semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing
452.8
399.9
-52.9
-11.7
Crop production, primary job
530.2
482.1
-48.1
-9.1
Basic chemical manufacturing
156.1
110.0
-46.1
-29.5
Rubber product manufacturing
173.0
132.8
-40.2
-23.2
Foundries
165.4
127.8
-37.6
-22.7
Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing
212.1
175.0
-37.1
-17.5
1
Data are from the National Employment Matrix.
Table 3c. The 10 fastest growing occupations, 2004-14
(Numbers in thousands)
Most significant source of postsecondary education
Employment
Change
2004
2014
Number Percent
or training1
Home health aides
624
974
350
56
Short-term on-the-job training
Network systems and data communications analysts
231
357
126
55
Bachelor's degree
Medical assistants
387
589
202
52
Moderate-term on-the-job training
Physician assistants
62
93
31
50
Bachelor's degree
Computer software engineers, applications
460
682
222
48
Bachelor's degree
Physical therapist assistants
59
85
26
44
Associate degree
Dental hygienists
158
226
68
43
Associate degree
Computer software engineers, systems software
340
486
146
43
Bachelor's degree
267
382
114
43
Dental assistants
Moderate-term on-the-job training
701
988
287
41
Personal and home care aides
Short-term on-the-job training
1
Each occupation is placed into one of 11 categories that best describes the education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified. For more
information about the categories, see Chapter II, "Selected Occupational Data, 2002 and Projected 2012" in Occupational Projections and Training Data, Bulletin 2572
(Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 2004), pp. 66-67, or in Bulletin 2602, the forthcoming 2006-07 edition of this publication.
Occupation
Table 3d. The 10 occupations with the largest employment growth, 2004-14
(Numbers in thousands)
Most significant source of postsecondary education
Employment
Change
2004
2014
Number Percent
or training1
Short-term on-the-job training
4,256
4,992
736
17
Retail salespersons
Associate degree
2,394
3,096
703
29
Registered nurses
Doctoral degree
1,628
2,153
524
32
Postsecondary teachers
Moderate-term on-the-job training
2,063
2,534
471
23
Customer service representatives
Short-term on-the-job training
2,374
2,813
440
19
Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners
Short-term on-the-job training
2,252
2,627
376
17
Waiters and waitresses
Short-term on-the-job training
Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food
2,150
2,516
367
17
Short-term on-the-job training
Home health aides
624
974
350
56
Postsecondary vocational award
Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants
1,455
1,781
325
22
General and operations managers
1,807
2,115
308
17
Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience
1
Each occupation is placed into one of 11 categories that best describes the education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified. For more
information about the categories, see Chapter II, "Selected Occupational Data, 2002 and Projected 2012" in Occupational Projections and Training Data, Bulletin 2572
(Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 2004), pp. 66-67, or in Bulletin 2602, the forthcoming 2006-07 edition of this publication.
Occupation
Table 4. Civilian labor force by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, 1984, 1994, 2004, and projected 2014
(Numbers in thousands)
Level
Change
Percent change
Group
1984
1994
2004
2014
1984-94 1994-2004 2004-14 1984-94 1994-2004 2004-14
Total, 16 years and older
16 to 24
25 to 54
55 and older
Percent distribution
1984
1994
2004
Annual growth rate (percent)
2014
1984-94 1994-2004
2004-14
113,544
23,989
74,661
14,894
131,056
21,612
93,898
15,546
147,401
22,268
102,122
23,011
162,100
22,158
105,627
34,315
17,512
-2,377
19,237
652
16,345
656
8,224
7,465
14,699
-110
3,505
11,304
15.4
-9.9
25.8
4.4
12.5
3.0
8.8
48.0
10.0
-0.5
3.4
49.1
100.0
21.1
65.8
13.1
100.0
16.5
71.6
11.9
100.0
15.1
69.3
15.6
100.0
13.7
65.2
21.2
1.4
-1.0
2.3
0.4
1.2
0.3
0.8
4.0
1.0
0.0
0.3
4.1
Men
Women
63,835
49,709
70,817
60,239
78,980
68,421
86,194
75,906
6,982
10,530
8,163
8,182
7,214
7,485
10.9
21.2
11.5
13.6
9.1
10.9
56.2
43.8
54.0
46.0
53.6
46.4
53.2
46.8
1.0
1.9
1.1
1.3
0.9
1.0
White
Black
Asian1
All other groups2
98,492
12,033
3,019
(3)
111,082
14,502
5,472
(3)
121,086
16,638
6,271
3,406
129,936
19,433
8,304
4,427
12,590
2,469
2,456
(3)
10,004
2,136
799
(3)
8,850
2,795
2,033
1,021
12.8
20.5
81.4
(3)
9.0
14.7
14.6
(3)
7.3
16.8
32.4
30.0
86.7
10.6
2.7
(3)
84.8
11.1
4.2
(3)
82.1
11.3
4.3
2.3
80.2
12.0
5.1
2.7
1.2
1.9
6.1
(3)
0.9
1.4
1.4
(3)
0.7
1.6
2.8
2.7
7,451
11,975
19,272
25,760
4,524
7,297
6,488
60.7
60.9
33.7
6.6
9.1
13.1
15.9
4.9
4.9
2.9
Hispanic origin
Other than Hispanic origin 106,093 119,081 128,129 136,340
12,988
9,048
8,211
12.2
7.6
6.4
93.4
90.9
86.9
84.1
1.2
0.7
0.6
White Non-Hispanic
91,296 100,462 103,202 106,373
9,166
2,740
3,171
10.0
2.7
3.1
80.4
76.7
70.0
65.6
1.0
0.3
0.3
1
As a result of changes in the definition of the race categories in census 2000, data for 1984 and 1994 represent the "Asian & other" race category with 1990 census weights. Data for 2004 and 2014 represent the "Asian
only" race category with 2000 census weights.
2
The “All other groups" category includes (1) those classed as of multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) American Indian and Alaska Native and (2b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders.
3
Data for "All other groups" are not available for 1984 and 1994.