Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal:
Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas
in the Highest Northern Latitudes
Brenda Pierce
33rd COLP Conference,
Seward, Alaska, 20-22 May 2009
U.S. Department of the Interior
Geological
U.S.U.S.
Department
of Survey
the Interior
U.S. Geological Survey
Photo: D.H. Houseknecht
Objectives of the CARA





Estimates of yet-to-find petroleum
Probabilistic, geologically based analysis
One methodology, consistently applied
Conventional oil and gas only
Regardless of sea ice or oceanic depths
Sedimentary Elements Map
(A Grantz, R Scott, S Drachev, T Moore, and J Howard)
Defining
Assessment
Units (AUs)
East Greenland
Rift Basins
Province and
Component AUs
Free Air Gravity Map of
the West GreenlandEast Canada and
Labrador Sea area
Geological Analysis
Oil Maturation 3 km
Oil Cracking 6-7 km
BGR97-03
From Franke and Hinz (2005)
6
Provinces & Assessment Units
 33 Provinces defined
 69 Assessment Units evaluated
 Quantitative estimates for 48 AUs
The CARA assessed geological risk,
but not economic or technical risk
AU Probability
(1-risk) of at
least one
accumulation
>50 MMBOE
Database for Assessment Analogs
paralic clastics
80
Number of values
Minimum
134
carbonate shelf
margin and reefs
0.000
70
6
0.167
2.923
Mean
0.373
50
5
40
Number of values
Minimum
31
0.000
Median
Maximum
0.242
1.069
Mean
0.291
4
Frequency
30
20
10
3
4.
2
M
or
e
4.
0
3.
8
3.
6
3.
4
3.
2
3.
0
2.
8
2.
6
2.
4
2.
0
1.
8
1.
6
1.
4
1.
2
1.
0
0.
8
1
Total Number of Fields per 1000 km2 >= 50 MMBOE
0
0.
00
0.
06
0.
12
0.
18
0.
24
0.
30
0.
36
0.
42
0.
48
0.
54
0.
60
0.
66
0.
72
0.
78
0.
84
0.
90
0.
96
1.
02
1.
08
1.
14
1.
20
1.
26
M
or
e
0.
6
0.
4
0.
2
2.
2
2
0
0.
0
Frequency
60
Median
Maximum
Total Number of Fields per 1000 km2 >= 50 MMBOE
(OFR 2007-1404; Charpentier et al. 2008)
Undiscovered Arctic Oil
Photo: D.H. Houseknecht
Background: World Oil





Reserves near all-time high ~ 1,238 BBO (Jan ‘08)
If Canadian oil sands are included ~ 1,390 BBO
Up from ~ 891 BBO (Jan ‘96)
More than 300 BBO produced (1996-2008)
Current World consumption ~ 30 BBO/year
source = BP Annual Review
CARA Mean Oil Estimate: 90 Billion Barrels
~13% of Undiscovered; ~4% of World Supply
700
F05 = 157 BB
F
=
83
BB
50
P05 = 157 BB
F95 = 44 BB
600
F50
Frequency
500
P50 = 83 BB
P95 = 44 BB
400
300
200
F95
F05
100
0
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
Undiscovered Oil, Billions of Barrels
320
360
400
Oil
South Barents
~9.4 BBO
S. Danmarkshavn ~4.3 BBO
N. Danmarkshavn ~3.3 BBO
Largest
Oil AUs
Yenisey-Khatanga
~5.3 BBO
NW Greenland
~4.9 BBO
Canning-Mackenzie
~6.4 BBO
AK Platform
~28 BBO
Arctic Alaska Exploration Maturity
• Prospective area onshore & offshore shelves ~ 150,000 mi2 (~400,000 km2)
• Fewer than 500 exploration wells (red dots)
Produced + Reserves
~22 BBO + ~35 TCFG
Huge oil- and gas-prone areas remain virtually unexplored
Billion-Barrel AUs (>50% chance)
Undiscovered Arctic Gas
Photo: D.H. Houseknecht
World’s 25 Largest Gas Fields
17
Data from IHS Energy (2007)
CARA Mean Estimated Gas: 1,670 TCF
~30% of World Undiscovered
P50
P95
P05 = 2,990 TCF
P50 = 1,547 TCF
P95 = 770 TCF
P05
Gas
Largest
Total
Gas
AUs
South Kara
~651 TCF
South Barents
~318 TCF
North Barents
~221 TCF
AK Platform
~122 TCF
BBOE (6TCF) AUs (> 50% chance)
Some Initial Findings of the CARA
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Arctic as a whole is gas-prone (gas ~3x oil)
South Kara Sea & Barents Sea are outstanding
for gas- most is in Russian territory
Offshore Alaska is outstanding for oil
SE Barents Sea, Offshore Mackenzie, E & W
Greenland, & Yenisey-K have oil potential
Arctic oil will change the Arctic nations
but not the global oil balance
Most resources are on continental shelves &
not in the deep Canada or Eurasia Basins
Most oil and gas is not in the UNCLOS Area
http://energy.usgs.gov/arctic/
email:
[email protected]
[email protected]
Photo: D.L. Gautier