Challenges of the Changing Arctic:
Continental Shelf, Navigation and Fisheries
Arctic Fisheries: Present and
future perspectives
Harald Loeng
Outline of the talk
• Some basic background – what do
we know
• Climate impact on the marine
ecosystem
• What do we expect in the future?
Some basic background
Photo credit NOAA. (http://marinesciencetoday.com)
Fishing Intensity
Arctic
commercial
fishing is
regionally
concentrated
Fishery activity
Number of fish stocks currently harvested by industrial
Fisheries in the Arctic Oceans and adjacent seas
Consequences of shifts in fish stocks
Total of
59 Fish Species
(Christiansen et al. 2014)
Arctic Fisheries Snapshot
3. Socio economics - Consequences of shifts in fish stocks
Total Arctic Fish 7.26 million tonnes (10% global catch)
Total Arctic Crustaceans 0.36 million tonnes (5.3% global catch)
Total Arctic Aquaculture 0.2 million tonnes (7.7% global salmon trout)
(Lindholt, 2005)
Climate impact on the
marine ecosystems
Photo credit NOAA. (http://marinesciencetoday.com)
How climate affect species:
directly and indirectly
Sea birds and marine mamals
Demersal fish
Pelagic fish and larvae
Zooplankton
Phytoplankton
Ocean climate
Temperature
Current
Transport
Stratification
Mixing
Light
(Sundby. 2000)
South-North shift (km / 25 yrs)
Shift in distribution of species in the
Bering Sea 1982-2006
300
Greenland halibut
Shortfin eelpout
250
200
Snow crab
150
skates
100
50 Mean shift = 31 km
Pacific halibut
Walleye pollock
0
-50
-100
Poacher, sculpins, sandlance
-150
Mueter and Litzow, 2008
Capelin distribution
2003
2013
Distribution autumn 2012
Cod
Haddock
Other species on the rim of the Arctic Ocean
Increasing open area in the Barents Sea
and the Arctic Ocean
What do we expect
in the future?
Photo credit NOAA. (http://marinesciencetoday.com)
Those who have knowledge,
don't predict.
Those who predict, don't have
knowledge.
Lao Tzu, 6th Century BC Chinese Poet
Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen,
and then explaining why it didn't!
Anonymous
Scientific perspectives on
climate change and Arctic
fisheries
1. How will productivity of Arctic ecosystems
change?
2. What species are most likely to migrate
successfully to the Arctic to establish selfsustaining populations?
3. How are successful migrations likely to alter
Arctic marine ecosystems?
Paul Wassmann 2011
Some criteria for establishing fish
stocks in the Arctic Ocean
• Bottom topography
– Depth of migration corridors
• Climatic conditions
– Temperature and salinity
– Sea ice distribution
• Food conditions
– Phytoplankton and zooplankton
• Stock abundance
Evaluation of potential for species
to move into high Arctic
Species/Stock
Pacific ocean perch
Beaked redfish
Greenland halibut
Greenland shark
Arctic skate
Other Elasmobranchs
Atlantic cod
Atlanto-scandic herring
Capelin
Northern rock sole
Pacific cod
Polar cod
Walleye pollock
Yellowfin sole
Alaska plaice
Bering flounder
Snow crab
TOTALS
Current Main Areas
Bering Sea
Atlantic + Barent Sea
Northern Atlantic + Pacific
Arctic Ocean + Adjacent Areas
Arctic Ocean + Adjacent Areas
Barent Sea
Barent Sea
Norwegian and Barent Seas
Bering + Barent +Kara Seas + Arctic
Bering Sea
Bering Sea
Barent Sea
Bering Sea
Bering Sea
Bering Sea
Bering Sea
Bering Sea
High
Potential
Low
6
6
5
(Hollowed, et. al. 2013)
Red fish
Hypothesized
expansion of the
distribution area of
redfish under future
ocean climate.
Shaded areas and
arrows indicate
current distribution
areas and migration
routes. Plain colour
areas and arrows
indicate the potential
fututure.
Adapted from Nedreaas et al. (2011)
Change is coming to
the northern oceans
The productivity of
cod in the Barents
Sea and pollock in
the Bering Sea in
relation to
changing climate
Biomass (1000t)
Five-year moving avarage
of annual mean
temperature (A) and SST
(B)
(Hollowed and Sundby 2014)
Management of fish stocks
• Management regimes with
sufficient capacity, in terms of
robust science, regulatory
frameworks that contribute to
reduced fishing effort and
maintenance of sustainable
stock levels, and enforcement
capability, are more likely to
respond adequately to the
challenges posed by climate
change than those that do not.
Harsem and Hoel 2012
North East Atlantic Fisheries
Commission cover 8% of
central Arctic Ocean
Pew Environment Group
Concluding remarks
• The north and eastward
movement of species will
depend on density
distribution, temperature
and food conditions
• Only pelagic species will
potentially move into the
deep Arctic Ocean
• Most likely no fishing
activity in the Arctic Ocean
the coming 10-15 years.
Thank you for
paying attention