The 39th Annual COLP Conference
Shanghai, China, June 24-26, 2015
The Future of SLOC Security in Asia
Ki-Joo Kim
Korea National Defense University
Korea National Defense University
CONTENTS
Introduction
Importance of SLOC
Security
Challenges to SLOC
Security
Policy Options & Conclusion
Korea National Defense University
Introduction
Korea National Defense University
Issue & Research Goal
The Issue
The environment for SLOC security becomes worse as
maritime security order in Asia proceeds to unstable and
uncertain situation.
The question of dealing with SLOC security is a significant
agenda in the region.
Research Goal
To evaluate and prospect SLOC security in Asia.
To suggest possible policy options to improve SLOC
security in Asia.
Korea National Defense University
Importance of SLOC Security
Korea National Defense University
Global Economy & SLOC
“The growth of sea power in the broad
sense, which includes not only the
military strength afloat, that rules the
sea or any part of it by force of arms,
but also the peaceful commerce and
shipping from which alone a military fleet
natural ly and healthful ly springs,
a n d o n w h i c h i t s e c u r e l y r e s t s .”
The Influence of Sea Power Upon History(1660-1783)
Alfred T. Mahan(1840-1914)
Korea National Defense University
Global Economy & SLOC
☞ Seaborne Trade : 90% of World Trade
Korea National Defense University
Global Economy & SLOC
Source : UNCTAD, REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2014, p. 3, p. 5.
Korea National Defense University
Global Economy & SLOC
9 billion tons(2010)
24 billion tons(2030)
Source : Lloyd’s Register et al., Global Marine Trends 2030 p. 28.
Korea National Defense University
Global Economy & SLOC
Asia ≒ 50%
Source : UNCTAD, REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2014, p. 7, p. 68.
Korea National Defense University
Global Economy & SLOC
World Oil Consumption(2013)
Asia-Pacific
33%
North America
24%
Europe
16%
Latin America
10%
Middle East
9%
Russia and
Central Asia
4%
Africa
4%
The World Top 10 Oil Consumers(2013)
1. US
21.1%
6. Brazil
3.4%
2. China
11.1%
7. Saudi
Arabia
3.3%
3. Japan
5.0%
8. Germany
2.6%
4. Russia
3.8%
9. South
Korea
2.5%
5. India
3.7%
10. Canada
2.5%
Source : eni, World Oil and Gas Review 2014, pp. 20-21.
China, Vietnam, India, Indonesia
☞ The countries with the largest growth in per capita GDP in 2030
by Global Marine Trends 2030
Korea National Defense University
Asia’s Critical SLOC
Tsugaru Strait
Korea Strait
Strait of Hormuz
Taiwan Strait
Luzon Strait
Strait of Bab el-Mandab
Strait of Malacca
Asia’s Critical SLOC
Korea National Defense University
Maritime Oil Chokepoints
Source : eia, World Oil Transit Chokepoints 2014, p. 2.
Korea National Defense University
Challenges to SLOC Security
Korea National Defense University
Is Asia’s Critical SLOC Safe?
Tsugaru Strait
Korea Strait
Korean
Crisis
Strait of Hormuz
Taiwan Strait
Taiwan
Crisis
Piracy
Strait of Bab el-Mandab
Piracy
Territorial
Dispute
Luzon Strait
Territorial
Dispute
Strait of Malacca
Asia’s Critical SLOC
Korea National Defense University
Threats to Asia’s Critical SLOC
SLOC
Major Threats
Strait of Hormuz
Strait of Bab el-Mandab
Middle East Tension
Piracy
Strait of Malacca
Piracy
East China Sea
Taiwan/Luzon Strait
Territorial Dispute
Piracy
PRC-ROC Tension
Territorial Dispute
Korean Strait
ROK-DPRK Tension
South China Sea
Korea National Defense University
Strategic Competition in Asia
Economic Recession →
Declining Naval Power + Decreasing Influence
Economic Growth →
Rising Naval Power + Increasing Influence
Economic Restoration →
Rising Naval Power + Increasing US-Japan Alliance
Waning US Maritime Hegemony?
Source : CRS, Navy Force Structure and Shipbuilding Plans(2015), p. 50.
Korea National Defense University
Rising China as a Maritime Power?
Source : CRS, China Naval Modernization(2015), p. 42.
China(313~342) > US(304~308)
Korea National Defense University
Rising China as a Maritime Power?
Source : Chinadialogue, April 17, 2015.
Korea National Defense University
Rising China as a Maritime Power?
Korea National Defense University
Territorial Disputes in Asia
Korea National Defense University
Piracy & Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia
22% Increase in 2014
68% Attacks in Asia
Source : ReCAAP, Annual Report on Piracy and Armed Robbery Against Ships in Asia 2014, p. 10.
ICC-IMB, Piracy and Armed Robbery Against Ships in 2014, p. 6.
Korea National Defense University
Policy Options &
Conclusion
Korea National Defense University
Policy Options
① Cooperation rather than Competition or Conflict
√ Strategic Cooperation
between US and China
√ Principle of Freedom of
Navigation
√ No Competition for
Control of SLOCs
√ No Naval Arms Race
Korea National Defense University
Policy Options
② Peaceful Settlement of Territorial Disputes
√ Political Dialogue among
States
√ No Offensive Foreign Policy
√ No Military Engagement
Korea National Defense University
Policy Options
③ Regional Cooperation for Anti-Piracy Activities
√ Remove Root Causes for
Piracy
√ Multilateral Naval
Cooperation
√ Capacity Building
Korea National Defense University
Concluding Remarks
√ Global and regional cooperation for SLOC security
is necessary.
√ The safe, secured, and uninterrupted sea routes are
critical to economic prosperity of Asian countries.
√ SLOC is not the possession of anyone country, but
the common goods of international community.
Korea National Defense University
Thank you!
“The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do
not reflect those of the Ministry of National Defense of the Republic
of Korea and the Korea National Defense University”
Korea National Defense University