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Schroder Investment Horizons
Harvesting bond returns as
rates rise
The climate is changing for fixed income. Quantitative easing is winding down. Interest
rates look ready to start reversing a generation of decline. On the face of it, this seems
a difficult background for bonds and, indeed, has already contributed to market volatility.
Yet we believe it will be hard to replace the diversification, liquidity and security of bonds.
In fact, we believe demand will continue to grow as populations age and increasingly
need retirement income.
Managing bond portfolios in this environment will be harder than in the past. It will no longer be sufficient
merely to be in the market: investors will also need to actively seek the best returns. Put another way, they
can no longer rely on beta, but must now put much more emphasis on alpha. Intelligently managed, we still
believe bond portfolios can prosper in this environment. This article briefly explains how.
The problem with being passive
While interest rates continued their long decline from the early 1980s, a buy-and-hold strategy made sense.
Indeed, many fixed income investors simply adopted index-based, passive portfolios, but these investors
now face particular problems. Substantial parts of the benchmarks used to construct their portfolios are
comprised of government bonds, where not only are yields low, they are highly sensitive to rising rates. For
instance, over 60% of the Barclays Global Aggregate Index – a popular benchmark to track – is made up
of government and government related issuers (Figure 1, left-hand chart, red bars). We think this part of the
market will be particularly vulnerable as yields rise and the quantitative easing instituted by the US Federal
Reserve (Fed) goes into reverse.
Figure 1: Benchmarks’ make-up can make them unappealing
Barclays Global Aggregate Index:
By Issuer:
Market Value
%
By Currency:
Market Value
%
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
r
lla
sh
Ca
rp
or
ate
0
Co
So
ve
rei
gn
Qu
Go as
ve i an
rn d
me Fo
nt rei
gn
EM
D
So
ve
rei
gn
Se
Co cur
lla itis
ter ed
ali /
se
d
0
US
Do
ro
Eu
n
Ye
d
r
lla
un
Po
ian
Do
ad
n
Ca
r
lla
an
ali
tr
us
Do
st
Re
A
Based on unaudited data as of March 26, 2014. Source: Barclays and Schroders. Sectors/currencies
shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation buy/sell.
2
Harvesting bond returns as rates rise
Other index constituents can also force passive investors into unwanted exposures. For instance, an
investor mimicking a global benchmark is often tying a substantial part of their fortunes to those of the
Japanese market. In the case of the Barclays Global Aggregate, Japan accounts for around 17% of its
value (Figure 1, right-hand chart, red bar). So just over a sixth of a passive investor’s portfolio would be
dependent on a country where government debt is close to 230% of GDP and whose financial authorities
have constantly to walk a tightrope between raising taxes to reduce debts and tipping the economy into
recession. We think this is a precarious underpinning for a bond portfolio at a time like this.
Of course, there are ‘smarter’ ways to use beta to increase returns from a passive investment in government
grade bonds. For instance, a buy-and-hold investor can leverage the minimal returns from high quality bonds
to the desired level by using outright borrowing. Alternatively, they could buy longer dated or lower quality
bonds. Unfortunately, while this increases the upside potential, it has similar – or worse – effects on the
downside, particularly when yields might be expected to rise.
Figure 2 shows the leverage and the possible losses (or drawdown) we calculate a passive investor adopting
these strategies might need to accept to achieve a 4% annual yield on certain asset classes. (The leveraged
approaches are towards the left of the chart, while the longer duration and/or lower quality strategies are
towards the right.)
Figure 2: What price do you pay to gain a 4% yield?
Increase Leverage
%
350
Reduce Quality/Increase Duration
2294
94
250
137
150
50
–55
–16
16
-250
–20
––26
–2
26
ML US Corporate
BBB 15+ Years
US Corporate
US Government
Required Leverage
to Achieve a 4% Yield (LHS)
US High Yield
–35
-350
–29
Emerging Market
Sovereign
-150
ML Global Corporate
10+ Years
-50
45
35
25
15
0
-5
-15
-25
-35
-45
Maximum Drawdown Over Last
10 Years, Not Adjusted for Leverage (RHS)
The leverage figure quoted is what would be required to raise the yield on the four left-hand asset classes to 4%. The asset classes (and their yields as of
June 30, 2014) are represented by the following two bond indices: Barclays US Aggregate Total Treasury (1.4%) and Barclays US Aggregate Corporate Total
Return (2.9%). The drawdown figures represent the annualized standard deviation for the last 10 years in each case. The other asset classes are represented
by the following indices: Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate 10+ Years, Barclays US Corporate High Yield Total Return, Merrill Lynch US Corporate BBB
15+ Years, and J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Composite. Source: Bloomberg and Schroders, as of June 30, 2014.
This is not to say that these can’t be useful strategies if managed properly. We believe that managers must
be allowed the freedom to dynamically adjust and hedge a portfolio’s overall interest rate and credit risk to
reduce the volatility of returns. So risk-averse investors may find the best way forward is to adopt a more
flexible approach, with a strong focus on managing drawdown risk that doesn’t need to over-allocate to
higher yielding assets.
Thematic drivers
While we believe active management of bond portfolios is essential in the current environment, we would
question whether traditional approaches will deliver the risk-adjusted returns that investors need. Often,
traditional fixed income managers adopt a sector rotation approach, which relies on predicting which sectors
will do well and then emphasizing them in the portfolio. However, this strategy still depends on beta – that
growth will be consistent across a sector – which may be less evident in the new interest rate environment. It
also takes little account of alternative scenarios that may lead to lower returns. We believe a better approach
is to identify key investment themes driving global markets, and then to devise strategies which aim to exploit
them to generate consistent risk-adjusted outperformance.
Harvesting bond returns as rates rise
3
One theme that is crucial for investors to understand right now is the extent to which the US economy’s growth
has been priced in by the market. We think many are underestimating the strength of the recovery and that the
bond market is therefore poorly positioned with regard to US yields. It is worth noting here that the ‘Taylor rule’,
which uses the divergence of inflation and economic growth from target to suggest what the level of interest
rates should be, is pointing to higher rates (Figure 3). We believe pressure should begin to mount on the Fed to
alter its current stance as the economy continues to perform, undermining support for the US government bond
market as rates rise faster than expected.
Figure 3: Taylor rule points to a sharp uptick in US interest rates
%
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
1984
1989
1994
1999
Fed Rate
2004
2009
2014
Taylor Rule Estimate
Taylor rule regression based on US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation less assumed core PCE inflation
target of 2%, and US unemployment rate less assumed non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) of 6%.
Okun factor of 2. Current implied policy rate = 2.4%. Regression coefficients are 1.53 and 0.47 respectively. Correlation is 0.84.
Source: Bloomberg, as of August 14, 2014.
Such insight is clearly useful, but even more important is what an investor does with it. We think there are at
least four strategies that a risk-aware investor might use to exploit the mispricing we see as a result of our view
of the US economy.
Adopt a short duration bias in US bonds. If, as we suspect, rates start to rise more quickly than expected,
then the US bond market looks set for a period of underperformance. But this is unlikely to be uniform. An
active manager may be able to generate additional returns by adjusting not just their overall exposure to the
market, but along the yield curve. In doing so, we think they will want to avoid the most interest-rate sensitive
areas of the market, which we anticipate will be at the short end where monetary policy has its biggest effect.
Accordingly, a portfolio manager with a broad fixed income toolkit can sell duration exposure at the short end
and re-allocate it along the curve where the outlook is relatively more favorable.
Allocate to US ‘growth assets’. The advantage of a more selective approach means that the active manager
may be able also capitalize on areas of the market expected to do well. One such area, we think, could be
longer dated corporate bonds. Many US companies have vastly strengthened their financial position, having
benefited from the economic revival and reduced debts. This has come at a time when US pension funds
have also seen big improvements in their funding position. Many are now looking to swap riskier assets, like
equities, for assets that will match their pension liabilities, typically bonds, to help lock in gains. In the past,
these matching assets would have included Treasury bonds, but minimal yields and pension accounting make
Treasuries unattractive. As a result, demand from pension funds for longer dated investment grade bonds may
be expected to support that part of the US market. Furthermore, allocations to longer duration assets may form
part of a yield curve flattening strategy (see next section), especially when teamed with an underweight or short
exposure to shorter dated US treasuries to better manage interest rate risk.
4
Harvesting bond returns as rates rise
Buy ‘yield curve flatteners’ as risk offsets. Of course, we could be wrong. The US economy may not be as
robust as we think, or there may be an unforeseen event around the corner which undermines economic
confidence. Either way, investors would normally run for the cover of very short dated Treasuries, traditionally
seen as one of the safest havens in a crisis. But, like pension funds, the chances are they will be put off by
the meager returns available, driving them into longer dated Treasuries in search of yield. In such an event,
we would expect yields to fall for all longer dated bonds, ‘flattening’ that end of the yield curve to the benefit
of holders of corporate bonds (Figure 4). So a position to take advantage of unexpected strength in the US
economy may still work if things do not turn out as expected.
Figure 4: Yield curve hedge for geopolitical risks
Yield curve flattens as rates fall
%
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2
3
4
5
7
10
20
Years
Jan 14
Mar 14
30
Jun 14
Source: Bloomberg, as of July 3, 2014. Past performance is not a guide to future results. The value of an investment can go
down as well as up and is not guaranteed.
Put your faith in the dollar. Another asset likely to benefit from a strengthening US economy is the currency.
An active manager can therefore buy dollars and/or reduce holdings in currencies likely to weaken. Such
a policy would nicely complement another of our themes: that the European Central Bank will introduce
quantitative easing sooner rather than later, weakening the euro against the dollar. So, where investment
agreements permit, active currency strategies may offer an alternative way to implement investment themes.
Conclusions
Risks are rising for fixed income investors. Rates now seem clearly to be on an upward trajectory,
which normally spells bad news for bonds. However, many investors – particularly those with longerterm liabilities – will find them hard to give up. We believe they can still enjoy the benefits of bonds,
but they may need to adopt different strategies. Passive benchmark investing will no longer work.
We think a more flexible risk allocation approach will prove to be much more effective. Even more so
as all investors will need to manage interest rate risk in the new economic circumstances. We believe
this will require them to diversify their portfolio by asset class, time horizon and alpha source. It will
require them to determine where is the best place on the interest rate curve to be, which countries to
be in and where is the best relative value. To juggle all these requirements means having a genuinely
unconstrained, global strategy, that is able to allocate risk wherever it will be rewarded, without being
unduly tied by benchmarks or home country biases. An investor armed with such a strategy can, we
believe, still survive and even thrive as rates move higher.
Alan Cauberghs, Investment Director, Fixed Income
Harvesting bond returns as rates rise
5
Important Information: The views and opinions contained herein are those of Alan Cauberghs, Investment Director, Fixed Income and do not necessarily represent
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