Evaluating the Current State of BOSFOLK Transportation Corridor and Indicators of Resiliency By David Ames, Sue McNeil, Michelle Oswald, Rebekah Gayley A report submitted to the University of Delaware University Transportation Center (UD-UTC) June, 2009 UDUTC Final Report Page 1 DISCLAIMER: The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the information presented herein. This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the Department of Transportation University Transportation Centers Program, in the interest of information exchange. The U.S. Government assumes no liability for the contents or use thereof. UDUTC Final Report Page 2 Table of Contents 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 4 OBJECTIVES ..................................................................................................................................... 4 OUTLINE OF THE REPORT ................................................................................................................... 4 2. The BOSFOLK Corridor .............................................................................................. 6 DEFINING THE CORRIDOR ................................................................................................................... 6 CHALLENGES ................................................................................................................................... 6 3. Defining Resiliency .................................................................................................. 12 4. Evolution of the Structure of a Multimodal Layered Transportation Spine ........... 15 5. Modal Vehicular Use Trends ................................................................................... 20 6. Land Use Trends and Context ................................................................................. 23 7. Environment and Emissions .................................................................................... 30 8. Economic Character and Impact ............................................................................. 31 9. Physical Structural Resiliency.................................................................................. 34 10. Community Impact, Planning Processes and a Regional Perspective .................... 37 11. Data Needs .............................................................................................................. 38 12. Conclusions and Next Steps .................................................................................... 40 13. Acknowledgments................................................................................................... 41 14. References .............................................................................................................. 42 15. Appendix A- Data Sources ...................................................................................... 44 16. Appendix B – Regional Workshop........................................................................... 47 UDUTC Final Report Page 3 1. Introduction Corridors of highly concentrated transportation networks are not a new phenomenon. As an overview of the history of the Northeast corridor reveals, transportation infrastructure, specifically rail lines and highways, have taken decades to develop, facing many challenges along the way. The Northeast corridor is a multimodal and multi-generational network connecting Boston, Massachusetts to Washington D.C. The corridor is also referred to as the BOSWASH corridor and more recently the BOSFOLK corridor, recognizing the extension of the corridor to Norfolk, Virginia. Objectives The objective of this research is to evaluate the resiliency of the BOSFOLK corridor’s. Investigating the evolution and development of the corridor provides insight into future growth and land use impacts in order to address challenges and improve management practices throughout the corridor. The objectives in analyzing the resiliency of the BOSFOLK corridor include: Determine historical impacts and challenges faced throughout the growth of the BOSWASH corridor Review existing models, theories, and projections behind mega-regions Define resiliency in a way that pertains to regional transportation infrastructure Discuss existing and future challenges faced by transportation practitioners in managing the corridor’s infrastructure Apply the concept of resiliency to the corridor by analyzing the relationship between route redundancy and population growth in the Northeast corridor Determine future steps towards improving the Northeast corridor’s regional infrastructure management practices Outline of the Report This report evaluates the BOSFOLK corridor and the indicators of resiliency through the following sections: The BOSFOLK Corridor- the corridor is defined geographically and the challenges are discussed Defining Resiliency- the term resiliency is discussed in relation to the regional context and defined based on Evolution of Structure of Multimodal Layered Transportation Spine- the stages and physical characteristics in the development of the multimodal transportation system are discussed including water-based, roads from colonial to the Interstate, rail and others. Place especial emphasis on how systems adapted over time. Modal Vehicular Use Trends- the trends related to modal context are explored Land Use Trends and Context- land use trends characterizing the corridor are discussed with emphasis on influenced by changing modal characteristics of corridor. UDUTC Final Report Page 4 The changes in corridor boundaries and land use sequences within corridor after road construction are explored. Environment and Emissions- environmental characteristics of the corridor and influences of the character of the transportation system and modes are described. Economic Character and Impact- the character of economic activities and development within the corridor and relationship to larger economy is explored. Physical Structural Resiliency- physical infrastructure growth as well as population growth are used as examples of indicators of resiliency and are explored in the context of the corridor. Community Impact- the impact on surrounding communities is evaluated especially looking at continuum of settlement/communities from high density cities to suburban and rural agricultural as well special community types like resorts. Planning Process- planning and design assumptions are examined with respect to the extent to which these conditions promoted or hamper resiliency. A Regional Perspective- connections and interdependencies throughout the region are considered. Data Needs –areas identified that required additional investigation and research to improve the planning process throughout the corridor are listed. Conclusions and Next Steps-summary of the key issues and future analyses required are addressed. UDUTC Final Report Page 5 2. The BOSFOLK Corridor Defining the Corridor The BOSFOLK corridor extends from Boston, Massachusetts to Norfolk, Virginia. The oldest transportation corridor in the United States, the BOSFOLK is multimodal and multigenerational in land transportation systems, Focusing on highway, transit, and freight corridors, the corridor faces several issues such as changing metropolitan and land use structure, congestion, safety, aging infrastructure, and competing demands of transporting individual travelers and freight while protecting the environment. The scale of the research includes problems of regional and national importance while focusing specifically on unique issues within the state of Delaware. We define the corridor as a structural region organized around an evolving multi-modal transportation system. Many definitions of megalopolis tend to be static ones using land-use and defining the as the extent of urban/suburban development from transportation spine. A transportation corridor is a linear area resulting from accessibility to land from the transportation spine and from the higher speed of interaction possible between locations along the spine than away from it. The transportation spine unifies the corridor. Thus, in timedistance places along the spine are closer together – shorter travel times – than places off the transportation spine. The history of the corridors is then the dynamics of its growth. Challenges Corridors of highly concentrated transportation networks are not a new phenomenon. As an overview of the history of the Northeast corridor will reveal, rail lines and highways have taken decades to develop. However, as the density of these transportation networks continues to increase within the corridor, planning professionals find themselves at a loss for how to effectively manage it. The result is increased traffic congestion, environmental degradation, structural impairment, and social injustices due to limited mobility. In the past, management of complex transportation corridors has been piecemeal, relegated to scattered and shattered jurisdictions that are not always inclined to seek collaboration. The challenges to managing the Northeast’s transportation infrastructure continue to grow; a new planning model is desperately needed. The basis of this new planning model is found in the 1961 work of French geographer Jean Gottmann and is expanded upon by current-day geographers and planners. Gottmann’s ideas regarding the mega-region he referred to as “Megalopolis,” will be fully discussed in the second section of this paper. First, it is crucial to understand the how and why the transportation corridor in the Northeast became what it is today. Societal changes in mobility have evolved over time, resulting in significant transformations to the Northeast corridor. Already by the 1830s, the corridor was highly industrialized and the development of a rail network throughout the region became possible (Von Eckardt, 1964). Individual states such as Massachusetts, Maryland, and Delaware had begun to construct their first rail lines which were initially pulled by horses (Houk, 2006), laying the foundation for a regional rail network. By the 1850s, the Massachusetts railroad system UDUTC Final Report Page 6 (the only state required to publicly report ridership) was well-established and reported ridership of 40 million passengers between 1838 and 1847 (Pell, 1966). When locally operated railroads consolidated with the regional system, the number of passengers grew to 200 million passengers between 1861 and 1870 in Massachusetts (Pell, 1966). As ridership increased, the rail network became one of the densest transportation systems in the nation (Von Eckardt, 1964). With the goals of providing mobility to the public and maximizing profit in mind, rail companies strategically placed rail lines from Boston to Washington D.C. in order to connect multiple centralized nuclei with sizable populations (Ward, 1986). The train stations were built in and around cities where the majority of people either lived or worked and typically provided service to regions of similar characteristics. The strategic planning of the rail system throughout the corridor connected pairs of cities such as Baltimore to Philadelphia or Philadelphia to New York City (Pell, 1966). This pattern developed the initial interconnected “string of cities” in the northeast, from Boston to Washington D.C., that forms the spine of Gottmann’s Megalopolis. The corridor developed based on the strategically placed rail lines rather than as a result of the overlapping suburban areas. The transformation from the rail line network is analogous to the development of a mammal. Prior to the development of an entire skeleton, a spine must first be developed. The railroad “spine” served as a backbone for future development of the highway system leading to the overlap in suburban regions. The highway system is representative of the “skeleton” which strengthened the established transportation network and promoted interconnectivity. Interconnectivity between metropolitan regions became stronger with the development of alternative modes of transportation including automobile and air travel. These alternative modes began to increase by the 1920s causing rail ridership to slowly decline (Gottmann, 1961). Modal competition between air and rail, as well as automobile and rail had a significant impact on the corridor. No longer did residents have to rely on fixed rail lines for mobility to and from the major cities of the corridor. The automobile was preferred for short intercity commutes while air travel began to dominate long distance travel, leading to a decrease in rail ridership. In terms of convenience, travel time, and accessibility, the rail system could not compete with the alternate modes. Within the next two decades almost every household across America owned an automobile (Gottmann, 1961). In 1940, there were approximately 27.4 million passenger cars registered in the United States and by 1957 there were approximately 55 million privately owned automobiles (Gottmann, 1961). This increase in motor transportation led to a demand for a nationwide highway network (Gottmann, 1961). The National Interstate and Defense Highway Act of 1956 prioritized federal subsidy of highway construction across the country. As a result, the highway system grew and the expansion created an additional increase in automobile ownership. Federal spending on interstate highway systems within the Megalopolis served to strengthen the spine of multi-modal interconnection between cities. UDUTC Final Report Page 7 However, the transition from rail to automobile was not without consequences in the Northeast corridor. With increased mobility through the highway network, residents were willing to live further away from the inner cities. Suburban home construction, bolstered by federal subsidy through the Federal Housing Act of 1947, grew more appealing to city residents tired of overcrowded housing and crime. Highways that led into cities were also highways that led out of cities and created suburban areas where people could avoid the disadvantages of city life. The Megalopolis corridor arose from well-developed transportation networks and rapid suburbanization. Today, the northeast corridor is a mega-region that consists of continuous urban sprawl, long commutes, and a lowered quality of life (Todorovich and Vallabhajosyula, 2007). Figure 1 displays the commutersheds that had developed by 1975 due to suburbanization and the desire to live outside of the city, away from rail lines. Figure 1- Commutersheds of Megalopolis in 1975 (Miller, 1975) UDUTC Final Report Page 8 As shown in light gray, many people in 1975 were living in the suburbs and relying on their personal vehicles to access workplaces located in the centralized city (shown in dark grey) (Miller, 1975). These commutersheds created the overlapping urbanized regions that connect the major cities of the Northeast into one continuous corridor (Miller, 1975). Figure 2 illustrates how continuous decentralization in Megalopolis has generated gradually increasing commute times from 1990 to 2000. The challenge to engineers and planners alike is that decentralization in the corridor, which manifests as longer commute times, results in greater dependence on personal automobiles for trips of all purpose. In turn, this results in increased traffic congestion and demand on infrastructure systems that affects quality of life, response to emergencies, public expenditure on infrastructure, and the environment. Figure 2- Commute Duration for 1990-2000 (Regional Plan Association, 2007) The resulting impact of geographical shifts from urban to suburban development to the environment in the corridor is immense. As was stated, longer commute times increase demand on highways and caused severe congestion (Von Eckardt, 1964). Congestion however, is more than a traffic problem; it is a land use and environmental issue as well. The environmental cost of cars caught in severe highway congestion is an increase in fuel emissions that negatively impacts air quality. Environmental and political costs related to the reliance on fossil fuels in the US are also problems. Poor air quality emissions, coupled with the land use impacts of highway construction, have created significant environmental degradation throughout the Megalopolis corridor (Regional Plan Association, 2007). Urban decentralization has resulted not only in congestion – and its related problems of traffic and environmental degradation – but also social and economic restructuring of the corridor. Once the automobile was established as the new form of mobility, those that could UDUTC Final Report Page 9 afford a vehicle were able to live outside the city. However, those that could not afford to buy a car were forced to remain within a close distance of their workplace, typically in urban districts where passenger train was heavily relied upon for mobility between cities (Vicino et al., 2006). This relationship is still apparent today where the suffering passenger rail system provides service (mass transit) to riders that simply cannot afford personal vehicles (Todorovich and Vallabhajosyula, 2007). Limited mobility traps poverty within certain areas in the Megalopolis corridor. Figures 3 and 4, shown below, display the current arrangement of urban clusters overlaid with income information, throughout the Megalopolis corridor. Figure 3- Urban Clusters in Southern Megalopolis (Vicino et al., 2006) Based on these maps, it is apparent that there is a trend relegating poverty stricken regions to centralized cities, such as Baltimore, Wilmington, and Camden. This socioeconomic issue will be a challenge for the future of the corridor, along with the related problems of congestion and sprawl. UDUTC Final Report Page 10 Figure 4- Urban Clusters in Northern Megalopolis (Vicino et al., 2006) UDUTC Final Report Page 11 3. Defining Resiliency When addressing future concerns of a corridor its resiliency, or “ability to recover from or adjust easily from change,” must be analyzed (Merriam-Webster’s Online Dictionary, 2008). Resiliency, the inverse of vulnerability, is a term that holds multiple applications and refers to more than simply the recovery of a system after a catastrophic event (Cova and Conger, 2004). It can be viewed as a performance measurement of how adaptable a system is to internal and external changes. Therefore, resiliency comes in two different connected forms: resilience as preparation and resilience as performance (Foster, 2006). Preparation resilience includes the ability to assess the system in order to be ready for change. Performance resilience refers to the ability of the system to respond and recover from change. Figure 5 displays the framework of how preparation resilience and performance resilience are interrelated. Figure 5- Performance Resilience vs. Preparation resilience (Foster, 2006) This research focuses primarily on the connection between the two forms in order to identify the key factors that determine a corridor’s regional resilience. Resilience, when applied to a transportation corridor, can be viewed at multiple scales. A corridor can be viewed as a whole system where resiliency is achieved at a regional level. However, resiliency can also be achieved at the local level where the individual system elements such as the infrastructure can be assessed (Foster, 2006). These two scales are strongly interrelated due to the fact that regional resilience is only as strong as the weakest link UDUTC Final Report Page 12 within the system. Therefore, resiliency must be achieved at the local level in order to successfully achieve regional resiliency. Regional resiliency addresses the corridor as part of a broader scope and relates to the interrelationship between various changes relating to land use, transportation, weather, and other unexpected events. Michel Bruneau (2003) and others developed a framework for assessing resiliency at the regional scale. He identifies four properties that are used for assessing regional resiliency: robustness: the strength of a system and its elements to withstand disruption without suffering degradation or loss of function redundancy: the extent to which a system or its elements have substitutes to ensure functioning in the event of a disruption resourcefulness: the capacity within a system to identify problems, establish priorities and mobilize and apply resources in face of disruption rapidity: the capacity to meet priorities and achieve goals in a timely manner to contain losses and thwart future disruption These properties of resiliency were originally developed for the assessment of communities. However they can be equally applied to the regional resilience of a transportation corridor. In contrast to regional resiliency, local resiliency refers to the ability of the individual infrastructure parts to be able to adapt and recover to stresses both internal and external. In terms of a transportation corridor, traffic oriented measurements can be used to assess the resiliency of the roadway. The following list includes general resiliency measurements focusing on transportation management: Route redundancy- number of alternative routes available for travel to a designated destination Reversibility- ability of the directional flow of traffic to be reversed in order to accommodate additional capacity Connectivity- number of access points that the road is connected to adjacent routes Continuity- ability of a roadway to continuously provide access to adjacent land uses Travel Time Reliability- ability to estimate the predicted travel time duration on a roadway In addition to these general measurements, there are episodic and continuous resiliency measurements. Episodic measurements are ones that occur at random and are typically unpredictable such as the ability to recover from weather related incidents or traffic accidents. Continuous measurements occur on a daily basis and are predictable such as daily traffic congestion, road degradation, and the effects of scheduled construction. In general, these measurements are all interrelated and cannot be isolated when determining resiliency of a transportation system. UDUTC Final Report Page 13 Corridor Resiliency – Practitioners’ Perspectives In order to understand the practical applications of the concept of corridor resiliency, a workshop was held involving transportation practitioners within the Mid-Atlantic region of the Megalopolis corridor. Feedback involving their personal definitions of resiliency was received as well as a general consensus of how to view resiliency from a corridor perspective. The first question posed to the practitioners was how they individually define the term “resiliency” with respect to the corridor. Varieties of responses were given and are listed below: Having the ability to recover Being able to maximize capacity and having an alternative support network Recovering from an incident Connection between transportation and land use, specifically identifying the difference between recurring and nonrecurring congestion Ability to “bounce back” meaning responding and recovering from all modal changes Ability of the driver to adapt and respond to changes Ability of the economy to support the changes in the corridor As listed above, a variety of definitions were provided however, a consensus was made regarding how to measure resiliency. The participants concluded that resiliency must be determined through performance measures such as travel time reliability, similar to the list of general traffic oriented measurements listed prior. Once the individual definitions were discussed a general conclusion was made that there are multiple types of corridor resilience. The following three types were defined: Functional resiliency- ability of the corridor as a whole to be able to adapt, respond, and recover to change at the regional scale Behavioral resiliency- ability of the individuals living within the corridor to be able to adapt, respond, and recover to change (example- using real time traffic data to determine which routes to use) Economic resiliency- ability of the economy to support change within the corridor In general, the workshop provided insight to how corridor resiliency is viewed in practice. The main point that was significant throughout the entire meeting was the importance of monetary support. Without adequate funding the necessary measures to promote resiliency throughout the corridor cannot successfully be achieved. UDUTC Final Report Page 14 4. Evolution of the Structure of a Multimodal Layered Transportation Spine Our research into the evaluation of the structure of the corridor as a multi-modal transportation spine identified four distinct phases: Phase I – 1730’s to 1840’s Phase 2 – 1840’2 to 1920’s Phase 3 – 1920’s to 1940’s Phase 4 – 1940’s to present Phase 1, from the 1730s to the 1840s, focuses on water-based ports, oceans, rivers and canals. The primary transportation spine is linear coastal shipping and canals to much lesser extent. Water-based transportation is more efficient, smoother, and cost effective than land especially for freight and heavy bulk items. Land is very secondary. In terms of land use cities where concentrated walking cities as joint locales of commerce, industry and residences with a sharp division between cities and towns and rural hinterlands. Phase 1 establishes the basic linear structure along the coast. Rivers and construction of westward canals (Erie, Pennsylvania, B&O) see the beginning of a lattice pattern and making the corridor the focus of western goods. Phase 2, from the 1840s to the 1920s, focuses on railroads and telegraphs, the Metropolitan Corridor Phase. Introduced from the 1830s, railroads created a strong linear organization and what has been called the “string of pearls” pattern with cities as the pearls. Able to move heavy freight and many people, railroads brought cities closer together in timedistance and created the first commuting zones. This allowed daily interactions between the cities from Baltimore to Boston and promoted the development of both economic specializations and interdependencies among cities. Paralleling and replacing canals, railroads extended west at right angles to north south lines strengthening the western lattice with the NY Central, Pennsylvania and B&O Railroads. Much of this was made possible by advances in bridge engineering with technical breakthroughs such as the Eads Bridge in St. Louis. It was a period of the booming industrial revolution and most industrial growth in the United States. With that and high immigration, the population of the corridor exploded and become largest urban industrial concentration in the world. At the same time rail gave rise to early suburbs first as railroad suburbs for the wealthy such as the Main Line west from Philadelphia and the Hudson Valley following NY Central. Streetcars, created closer in, formed contiguous suburbs for middle class. Since these fixed-rail transportation modes focused on cities the nodal structure of corridor was reinforced with larger urban concentrations, contiguous middle density suburbs with sharp division between that and rural areas. With the introduction of the telegraph in the 1870s and the telephone in the 1890s, a communications revolution its network became part of the spine of the corridor. A major impact of the telegraph and telephone was that management of manufacturing firms could be UDUTC Final Report Page 15 separated from the production facilities. This led to movement of corporations headquarters to major cities especially New York. As second impact, allowed larger skyscraper because it facilitated communications between floors. Finally, telegraph and telephone allowed concentrations of financial institutions because the could trade remotely while having the needed face-to-face contact. It promoted the growth of Wall Street and financial districts in other cities in the corridor. The third phase from 1920s to 1940s is the early automobile and radial and national highways phase. The following are key milestones in the chronology: 1919 – Army cross-country truck convoy –Capt. Dwight Eisenhower impressed by need for transcontinental highways 1922 – Pershing map for national system of defense highways 1922 to 1938 – “Golden Age of Highway Building” 1925 – Corbusier Paris plan with high-speed highway system – Plan voisin pour Paris 1926 -- Numbered US Highway system implemented 1932 – Mumford Thomas Debate New Republic Regionalist vs Metropolitanist (Fishman) 1935-1940 – First part of Pennsylvania Turnpike constructed (BPR opposed because of lack of demand – estimated 750 cars a day. 1937 – Roosevelt Interstate Proposal of Grid of Six Highspeed Transnational Roads (hand drawn map lost) 1938 Highway Act proposing spoke and wheel plan for metropolitan area; feasibility study of FDRs proposal 1939 – Free Roads and Toll Roads by BPR – proposes metropolitan roads finds transcontinental route un feasible because of lack of demand -- recommended a 26,700 mile non-toll interregional network following existing roads wherever possible to preserve earlier investment. 1939 – General Motors Futurama at NY World’s Fair 1941 Roosevelt continued to press for a national system of super highways and in 1941, appointed a National Interregional Highway Committee to investigate the need for a limited system of national highways. 1943 report, Interregional Highways, recommended an interregional highway system of 39,020 miles was designed to accommodate traffic 20 years from construction. The report emphasized urban freeways arguing that they would “exert a powerful force on the shape of the future city.” 1944 Highway Act 1944 – Eisenhower impressed by advantages and resiliency of autobaun over railroads for military logistics 1954 Housing Act Authorizing Urban Renewal UDUTC Final Report Page 16 The fourth phase from 1956 to the 1980s can be characterized as the Interstate Highway and Automobile Phase. The Interstate Era of BOSFOLK is from 1956 to 1970. The construction of Interstate Highway system from 1956 to the present has had the greatest influence on the development of BOSFOLK corridor – not only because of the interstates alone but other communications and transportation events that occurred during the same period – the introduction of commercial jet travel in 1958 and the PC computer in 1980 which led to IT networks and telecommunications. The literature makes two conclusions the BOSFOK corridor that may seem contradictory. On the one hand Gallis, Moll and Millar (2007) argue that northeast corridor evolved through three stages to reach what the call its present configuration as “Northeast Urban Lattice”. On the other hand, recent analysis of the ten megalpolitan areas in the US, Lang and Dhavale classify it as an extreme form of a linear corridor. Gallis, et.al call their first stage “traditional” Northeast which is the pre -interstate conditions before 1956. The second stage from 1970 to 1990, starting with the Gottmann (1961) megalopolis base line, is called the Northeast Corridor created by combination of I-95, New Jersey Transit and Amtrak. This period is subdivided into two sub-periods the first from 1960 to 1975, when the transportation improvements promoted a linear corridor. They mark the second phase of the network as 1975 with the introduction of urban beltways which provided a broader framework for both suburbanization and connectivity. “The Lattice” is stage three evolving from 1990-2007. In this stage the linear pattern begins to reconfigure into a parallel set of north-south growth points connected by a set of east-west interstates evolving into “a pattern of multiple nodes and connections , each with an increasingly specialized role in the urban, economic, and transportation structure of the northeast.” This transformation has been the result of global integration, formation of the North America trading block, the breakup of Conrail and rise of e-commerce. It is producing a pattern of urbanization across a broader landscape. Another trend associated with the Northeast Corridor is that it has been the prototype for the growth of nine other mega-urban areas in the US that are being called megapolitan areas. In the examination of ten of these areas, Lang and Dhavale found that they vary in spatial form with “some showing a clear corridor (or linear) form while others spread out in vast galaxies.” They concluded that the megalpolitan areas fall along a continuum of metropolitan spatial form from “Galactic” to “Corridor.” The cluster of metro areas forming the research Triangle in North Carolina typifies the Galactic form and the Northeast Corridor is on the “Corrdior” end of the continuum. When the geographer Lewis first coined the term metropolitan galaxies he was referring to the enormous influence of the interstate highways system of the pattern of urbanization in the United States. The most important aspect of which was the points of new urban development were no longer traditional urban location characteristics but points of intersection in the national interstate system. A prime example of this are Edge Cities which tend – like Tysons Corner in Virginia around the intersection of radial and circumferential interstates – I-495 and I-66. The lattice grid is creating a set of development points and as the UDUTC Final Report Page 17 Northeast Corridor has evolved to a grid or lattice the major source of development are the ”galactic” type interstate intersections. The evolution of the corridor can be characterized by the following observations: It has retained a corridor structure because it is anchored by a series of ports along the coast (the C&D Canal makes Baltimore coastal). With globalization and shift to freight transportation these ports have become more important . Unlike the flat Midwest, the northeast corridor is also limited to a coastal plain hemmed in by the Piedmont. At the same time the basic lattice structure of a core north-south corridor at right angles western extensions was laid out from the being as the ports developed transportation to their hinterlands and inland US. o First canals – Erie, PA, C&O o Railroads – NYCent, Pennsy, B&O o Federal Highways o The Interstate. Stage 1: I-95 Linear Interstate Corridor and Framework for Lattice 1956-1975 The first linear multilane lane highway corridor was built from Washington, D.C. to Boston as I-95 . It was not a continuous road until the 1970’s when the New Jersey Turnpike connected it to Interstate 295 across the Delaware Memorial Bridge. Land uses attracted along the route formed a corridor with nodes at major interchanges. It also stimulated suburbanization outward form major cities. The construction of the interstate from 1956 to the 1980’s occurred at the same time that central city populations were declining and decentralization was taking place. Planning was very primitive. In 1960, metropolitan planning councils were formed to undertake the regional transportation play. At the same time, OMB I-95 regional planning agency was established to coordinate federal assistance including federally assisted transportation planning. Also, the parallel and radial interstates were being built in eastern New Jersey and western Pennsylvania that would become the skeleton for the latest Galactic Lattice Development. Stage 2: 1975 to 1980 Interstate Beltway of Circumferential The original interstate was planned as a national defense highway to move material across the country. To speed transportation, it avoided many cities. In the 1970’s, the Interstate Act was modified to connect cities and to provide beltway and circumferential around cities.. It also required comprehensive transportation planning and stunted the development of metropolitan transportation methods. From the 1973 Highway Act, circumferential interstates were planning a built around nearly all major American cities and thou in megalopolis I-495 and 695 around Baltimore/Washington and Baltimore, respectively. Although thecities were still declining, the circumferential along with some new radial interstates stimulated suburbanization in a new UDUTC Final Report Page 18 way. While the land area covered by development greatly exceeded the population growth urban sprawl occurred. It also changed the nature of traffic forecasting, whereas earlier forecasts assumed a constant relationship between land and type of trip generation, it soon became realized the new roads generated more trips and vehicle miles traveled and origins and destinations became too dispersed. Thus the megapolitan corridor of beads on a string became more like overlapping donuts with development along beltways surrounded a declining central city. Stage 3: 1980s to 2008 Growth of Galactic Lattice What is called ‘Galactic Growth’ occurs when new development shifts from cities to the intersections of the interstate network – the pattern of urbanization follows the pattern of the interstate. Growth at these points of intersection led to a new type of urban concentration called ‘Edge Cities’ – first ‘discovered’ in 1988. All of this occurred as a part of a larger metropolitan trend in which suburbs were growing larger and more economically mature than their former central cities. In this ‘post-suburban’ phase, suburbs were breaking away from central cities. New Castle County, Delaware is an excellent example of a suburban area many times larger and economically mature than its history urban city parent of Wilmington. In the BOSFOLK CORRIDOR, Edge Cities, north of Washington, the corridor maintained its linear orientation – the first stage of Galactic Development. Where interchanges became major points of new development such as Cherry Hill and Princeton, New Jersey were early 1980’s examples of Edge Cities. A number grew in the New York metropolitan area into Connecticut. By the 1990’s also BOSFOLK had developed become utterly suburbanized and was organized a much around Edge Cities or traditional cities. It has become a much broader corridor. Development occurs along a continuum from Galactic to Corridor, from a spread pattern, to a more linear one. Among 10 megapolitan areas they found the Northeast megapolitan area to be the second most defined in corridor form – behind the I-35 corridor in the mid-west. Although this may seen to contradict the conclusion of BOSWASH has a Galactic pattern, the essential trait of the Galactic pattern is that need development centers on interstate exchanges so from planning potential view the area major points of origin and destination. The second point that does support the Galactic Phase is the work of Gallis, Moll and Millar who argue that after 1990 BOSWASH development moved west along the interstate network and incorporated older industrial cities and transportal hubs. Specifically they write: After 1990, global integration, the forma of the North American trading block, the breakup of Conrail and e-commerce resulted in a new construction in the pattern of the network. (People-Nature – p.6) The two new rail systems – CSX and Norfolk Southern – developed new system of hubs and the older cities in eastern Pennsylvania began to play important roles as inland hubs. At the same time, e-commerce integrated them into a unified system. UDUTC Final Report Page 19 5. Modal Vehicular Use Trends The passenger rail lines provided the initial transportation “spine” of the Megalopolis corridor which then expanded with the development of the automobile. Starting as early as the 1920’s the development of the automobile began to alter the Megalopolis corridor by reducing passenger rail ridership. The automobile was more than a technological advancement; it was a means for personal travel, an agent of suburbanization, a motivation for highway construction, and a stimulant of modal competition with the passenger rail service. During the 1930’s and 1940’s, the automobile became present in almost every household across America (Gottmann, 1961). In 1940, there were approximately 27.4 million passenger cars registered in the United States and by 1957 there were approximately 55 million privately owned automobiles (Gottmann, 1961). The increase in motor transportation led to a high demand for a sufficient nationwide highway network (Gottmann, 1961). Figure 6 displays the average daily highway traffic in the United States in 1952 based on the established highway network (Gottmann, 1961). The thickness of the individual routes is representative of the traffic density on that particular highway. The automobile is responsible for influencing transportation infrastructure which is coupled with shifts in residential patterns. It provided mobility and opportunity for Americans to live farther from the workplace causing population density rates to shift away from urbanized areas and into the suburbs (Van Eckardt, 1964). Unfortunately, the railroad service suffered because it was a restricted fixed route service which typically did not extend into the suburbs. The passenger rail service was no longer the most convenient, efficient, and popular means for travel throughout the Megalopolis corridor. After the 1920’s, the automobile, along with alternative modes (i.e. air travel), caused modal competition with the passenger rail service. The automobile was preferred for short intercity commutes while air travel began to dominate long distance travels, causing passenger rail ridership to decrease (Miller, 1975). Travel time, comfort, cost, and convenience caused the passenger rail service to be less desirable than other modes and there was little ability for the rail to compete with these modes (Sussman, 2000). For example in 1969, a trip from Boston to New York City takes fifty minutes by air versus four and a half hours by rail. The time differences (in hours) for rail versus air travel between five major cities in the northeast corridor can be seen in Table 1 (Miller, 1975). Air transportation is a more efficient travel mode when compared to rail in terms of trip duration (Miller, 1975). More recently, air transportation continues to dominate long distance trips when compared to transit, rail, or automobile. This is apparent in Figure 7 which shows vehicle miles traveled by mode from 1994 to 2004. UDUTC Final Report Page 20 Figure 6- Highway Traffic Flow in United States in 1952 (Gottmann, 1961) UDUTC Final Report Page 21 Table 1- Train and Air Travel Time between Megalopolis Cities in 1969 (Miller, 1975) Figure 7-Index of U.S. Vehicle Miles 1994-2004 (DeCerreno, 2007) UDUTC Final Report Page 22 6. Land Use Trends and Context The Northeast corridor in the United States is an area of political, economic, and social supremacy due to its composition of continuous urbanized areas. One solution to managing this intricate web of continuous urbanized areas lies in the research of a French geographer, writing over forty years ago – well before the problems associated with transportation and infrastructure were deemed a “crisis.” In 1961, French geographer Jean Gottmann saw the pattern of cities strung along the Eastern Seaboard, including Boston, Providence, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, D.C., recognized this pattern as important, and termed this unique area “Megalopolis.” (Gottmann, 1961). According to Gottmann, characteristics such as high density, increased infrastructure, population growth, technological advancements, and intricate transportation systems had enabled the Megalopolis corridor to become a significant geographical region (Gottmann, 1961). Figure 8 displays “Megalopolis” as defined by Jean Gottmann. Figure 8- Megalopolis Corridor (Vicino et al., 2007) Megalopolis, meaning “large city,” describes the four hundred and fifty five mile region that stretches from northern Boston to southern Washington D.C. and crosses the boundaries of ten states (Miller, 1975). Gottmann believed that rather than viewing each city in Megalopolis as its own entity, the region as a whole ought to be viewed as new form of city. UDUTC Final Report Page 23 The corridor was created when the expanding suburbanized areas around each of the cities caused traditional commutershed boundaries to blur (DeCerreno, 2007). Since 1961, metropolitan growth within this corridor has been extreme. Suburbanization and urban sprawl have both increased in occurrence since 1961, which, in turn, has led to increased population density within and around the major Megalopolis cities. Geographer Richard Morrill (2006) updated Gottmann’s map based on population growth in the Figure 9- Megalopolis Revisited (Morrill, 2006) corridor from 1950 to 2000, proving the continual relevancy of the corridor. Figure 9 shows growth in twenty year increments from 1950-1990 of the expanding Megalopolis region. Population growth for the year 2000 is also included in Morrill’s map (Morrill, 2006). Population densities that were once limited to the eastern-most sections of states like Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts, have crept westward and cities such as Harrisburg, PA, and Springfield, MA, are now part of Megalopolis. Though Gottmann’s theories held potential to reorganize the scale at which decisions were made in the Northeast corridor, planning professionals – transportation and/or land use – have failed to incorporate the idea of the mega-region or mega-corridor into planning and decision making. Despite demonstrable economic dependencies between cities and/or counties in the Megalopolis corridor, planning at that scale has yet to be organized. For this reason, among others, Gottmann’s Megalopolis concept failed to take hold among the general UDUTC Final Report Page 24 public. Recently, however, as the I-95 corridor becomes increasingly congested and state DOT’s find themselves overwhelmed with the costs of maintenance and new construction, some geographers and urban planners are returning to Gottmann’s transportation corridor concept, with the intention of adapting it to respond to today’s areas of concern and a growing infrastructure crisis. In 2005, geographers Lang and Dhavale (2005) expanded Gottmann’s definition of Megalopolis and wrote that the idea of a transportation/metropolitan corridor was not unique to Megalopolis in the northeastern United States; rather, megapolitan corridors – a 2005 take on Gottmann’s 1961 Megalopolis - are present in ten different locations within the United States. Lang and Dhavale wrote that the Megalopolis characteristics of interconnectivity, population density, distinct regional identity, and long historical background deign “megapolitan” status to the following regions: Northeast, Midwest, Piedmont, Gulf Coast, Pennisula, I-35 Corridor, Valley of the Sun, Norcal, Southland, and Cascadia (Lang and Dhavale, 2005). These ten megapolitan regions cover thirty-five states throughout the United States and are predominantly located along the east and west coasts. In terms of population density, the megapolitan corridors either currently posses or have the potential to possess ten million residents by 2040 (Lang and Dhavale, 2005). Figure 10 displays the ten megapolitan corridors in their respective locations throughout the country. Lang and Dhavale predict that as the current megapolitan corridors continue to grow in population, the total number of megapolitan corridors will also grow – doubling from ten to twenty by 2040 (Lang and Dhavale, 2005). Approximately thirty-three trillion dollars towards these regions will be spent on Megapolitan growth (Lang and Dhavale, 2005). Table 2 provides a comparison between megapolitan and national growth from 2005 to 2040. Lang and Dhavale’s definition of megapolitan areas has gained credibility because it uses data and geography collected by the US Census Bureau to create standards for designation. The researchers use census-designated statistical areas to identify and label the megapolitan areas, with the county as the most basic unit of analysis. Counties, as units of analysis, then combine to form metropolitan statistical areas (MetroSAs), micropolitan statistical areas (MicroSAs), or Non-core Based Areas – all recognized by the US Census Bureau (2009). Megapolitans must consist of at least two – but sometimes as many one or two dozen – metropolitan statistical areas (MetroSAs), as defined by the US Census Bureau (2009).1 Censusdesignated “micropolitans”2 are also incorporated into megapolitans so long as they are contiguous to the metropolitan area and share a pre-determined level of linked economic activity. Other criteria determined by Lang and Dhavale for identifying Megapolitan areas are as follows: 1 Metropolitans Statistical Areas: An “urbanized area” or “principal city” with at least 50,000 people plus surrounding counties with a 25% “Employment Interchange Measure” (EIM) in 2000. 2 Micropolitan Statistical Areas: Meaningful core-based areas with populations between 10,000 and 50,000 but whose central cities are too small to qualify as MetroSAs. MicroSAs are recognized as self-contained settlements outside of MetroSAs whose boundaries are determined by commuting patterns. UDUTC Final Report Page 25 Figure 10- Map of Megapolitan Corridors (Lang, 2005) Table 2- Megapolitan vs. National Growth (Lang and Dhavale, 2005) UDUTC Final Report Page 26 Constitutes an “organic” cultural region with a distinct history and identity. Occupies a roughly similar physical environment. Links large centers through major transportation infrastructure. Forms a functional urban network via goods and service flows. Creates a usable geography that is suitable for large-scale regional planning. Lies within the United States. Figure 11- Interconnectivity between Metropolitan Region (Lang and Dhavale, 2005) Figure 11 displays a diagram of interconnected metropolitan areas and the designated areas that form as a result of transportation connections. As shown, urban realms develop around the central cities while micropolitan areas exist outside the urban realm, or metropolitan area. The true promise for Lang and Dhavale’s megapolitan identification lies within the fifth bullet point listed above. Many benefits will arise from large-scale regional planning at the megapolitan level, once locations with megapolitan areas recognize their economic, cultural, and geographic dependency. This conclusion is not so far from what Gottmann originally proposed in Megalopolis. Lang and Dhavale have attempted in “Beyond Megalopolis” to harness the ideas of Gottmann’s Megalopolis and package it in a practical way that will be useful to researchers, policy makers, geographers, and residents. Since 2005, Lang has worked to further refine the definition of megapolitans in an attempt to make America’s new urban form relevant to those making decisions about the regions. In Beyond the Metroplex: Examining Commuter Patterns at the “Megapolitan” Scale (2007), Lang and Nelson more narrowly define megapolitan areas than did Lang and Dhavale (2005). For Lang and Nelson, megapolitan areas are “big, but not enormous and can easily be traversed by car in a day, UDUTC Final Report Page 27 round-trip… [megapolitan areas have] economic linkages as demonstrated by commuter patterns. The ‘anchor urban cores’ of megapolitans lie at least 50 miles, but no more than 180 miles, apart.” Beyond the Metroplex is a further attempt to resolve what people often intuitively sense about a place – “metros that were once distinct places now merging into urban complexes” – with how these places are classified by governments, policy makers, and researchers. Lang and Nelson use the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex as an starting point for how other megapolitan areas might grow and develop in the future; however, they emphasis that the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex is just a starting point for research as today’s megapolitan areas cast a shadow over the original metroplex in their enormity. Megapolitans, as defined by either Lang and Dhavale (2005) or Lang and Nelson (2007), will continue to grow in terms of population and physical space for the coming decades and the US must formally recognize this dominant urban geography. Although corridors as a whole are increasing in population, a pressing question remains where within the corridors are people residing? Largely, growth within megapolitan corridors is suburban. According to Vicino, Hanlon, and Short (Megalopolis 50 years on: the Transformation of a City Region, 2007), the overall growth of the BOSWASH/Megalopolis corridor masks the decline of major cities such as Baltimore, Boston, Philadelphia, and Washington D.C. Urban decentralization was the original impetus for the rise of megapolitan corridors, but it has come at the cost of population loss in the central cities within metropolitan regions (Vicino et al., 2007). Because the birth rate in the United States has remained relatively constant for the past several decades, growth in one area generally requires decline in another. In the megapolitan corridors defined by Lang et al, growth of the megapolitan as a whole has created decline in central cities. The exception to this trend is New York City which continues to retain its population and remain a centralized force (Vicino et al., 2007). Table 3 displays the suburban versus urban trends within the Megalopolis corridor over a span of fifty years. Though the Megalopolis corridor remains densely populated at 931 people per square mile, population dispersion away from central cities has occurred. However the nature of that dispersion is unique because of Megalopolis’ overall growth rate: “[In 1950] more than one in five of the total population lived in the central cores of the five large cities of Baltimore, Boston, New York, Philadelphia and Washington. Fifty years on, less than one in 10 lived in these same areas. In 1950, less than one in five lived in the suburbs. By 2000, two out of three lived in the suburbs. The urban cores had virtually no population increase during the 50-year period while the suburbs grew by almost 400%” (Vicino, et al., 2007). The population redistribution trend within Megalopolis has led many geographers such as Vicino et al. (2007) and Morrill (2006) to revisit Gottmann’s original description of the Megalopolis corridor and expand its area of influence. For example, population changes illustrated in Richard Morrill’s (2006) “Megalopolis Revisited” map shown previously in Figure 2 illustrates the growing physical expanse of the Megalopolis corridor. Though population decentralization has caused parts of Megalopolis to decline, it is the very force that has given rise to Megalopolis-like megapolitan areas across the US. UDUTC Final Report Page 28 Table 3- Population Change and Distribution in Megalopolis (Vicino et al., 2007) UDUTC Final Report Page 29 7. Environment and Emissions Throughout the corridor air quality has been a perennial issue. Furthermore, much of the corridor crosses or is adjacent to environmental sensitive coastal areas, wetlands, estuaries. A detailed analysis of this facet of the corridor is beyond the scope of this report. UDUTC Final Report Page 30 8. Economic Character and Impact Prior to the 1830’s, northeastern urbanized areas were suffering from periodic unemployment, poverty, and continuous depression (Ward, 1986). The railroad improved the morale of the growing urban poor. Rail enthusiasts promised that railways would raise the level of national confidence and bring urbanized areas out of depression (Ward, 1986). Their promise held true when employment rates rose due to the increased opportunities for jobs within the railroad business. Careers ranging from railroad managers to construction workers helped to decrease the unemployment rates and dispel the depressed regions (Sussman, 2000). Figure 12 displays the employment and economic characteristics of the Megalopolis corridor after the development of the passenger rail service. As shown, New York City is the most populated central city with the largest percent of white collar male employed residents (Gottmann, 1961). Figure 12- Economic Characteristics based on Data and Classification (Gottmann, 1961) The population growth and increased employment rates in the BOSWASH corridor were promoted by increased passenger mobility provided by the rail service. Passenger rail systems provided the opportunity for efficient, comfortable, and convenient accessibility to and from major cities. No longer did residents rely on horses to reach their work destinations located in the centralized business districts (Houk, 2006). They were able to take advantage of the UDUTC Final Report Page 31 transportation technology by living near the rail stations, and having the capability of regularly riding the train into nearby cites. This increased mobility encouraged people to live away from the poverty-stricken urban areas and, in turn, pay a small fee to travel by train to access the workplace. Travel capabilities improved through intermodal (train to train) and intramodal (train to alternative modes i.e. ship) transfers allowing for complete mobility throughout the northeast corridor (Sussman, 2000). The passenger rail system not only provided access into and out of the cities, but also provided mobility between cities which was the key to the growth of the Megalopolis transportation corridor. Beyond the recognition and labeling of a new geographical pattern of urbanization he called ‘Megalopolis’, Gottmann claimed it had the strongest regional economy to U.S. and, almost as significant as the concept of Megalopolis, he was among the first to recognize the emerging advanced service economy would transform the American economy by the end of the century. To capture Megalopolis’s important in the national economy he called it the “Main Street of the United States.” Since then Megalopolis has maintained and expanded this role and attained singular national prominence in areas such as financial services being home to 80 percent of national employment in that sector. Indeed, in 2000, if Megalopolis was a country, it would have ranked fourth among national economies just after the United States -- and that on just seven percent of American land area. Its economic strength and resiliency is tied to its namesake pattern as a dense network of interconnected cities that have developed reinforcing economic specializations facilitated by the ease of interactions by transportation and communication. While it has rapidly suburbanized outward, much of its economic strength lies with its major cities which also experienced economic resurgence in recent years with activities such as finance, entertainment and communications that value and require face-to-face contacts facilitated by large dense cities. Because proximity and ease of interaction between locations are critical to this economy, transportation is an especially influence on economic productivity in Megalopolis. Several trends, however, have made maintaining efficient transportation difficult. The first challenge is simply the sheer size of population growth and the associated demand for travel that has occurred. Demand for passenger travel has outstripped the earlier traffic projections because shrinking household sizes in a larger- than-expected population has translated into more residential points of origin but with a simultaneous increase in vehicles per household. Moreover, as home and job destinations have become more dispersed, the number of commuting trips have both increased and become longer. Thus the population and travel projections made in the 1960’s and 1970’s to design the highway capacities needed in the 1990s, fell far short of the amount and pattern of actual growth. As result today roads are being stretched beyond their capacity resulting in extreme congestion. Nor did planner predict the amount and dispersed pattern of sprawl as it has evolved. The situation has become more difficult in the late 1970s and 1980s because in addition to dramatically under forecasting rubber-based passenger travel derived from population projections while, at the same time, being caught unawares by the exploding numbers of vehicle and vehicle miles traveled, planners also not did foresee the significant shift in travel UDUTC Final Report Page 32 mode of freight. With need to serve more dispersed destinations, freight shifted dramatically from rail to trucks, greatly increasing highway traffic. Moreover, as the economy globalized in the 1980’s and especially in the 1990’s, containerized freight was invented to increase the amount and speed of freight movement and the tonnage received at ports in Megalopolis increased by an order of magnitude. Major container ports were built at Port Elizabeth (New Jersey), and Norfolk. The containerized freight systems shifted freight directly from ships to trucks to move commodities to scattered locations inland. While some containers traveled by rail, the containers, by definition, move to their final destination by truck. Ironically with the advent of the personal computer the 1980’s and the growth of information technology and the internet in the 1990’s, the system of freight delivery could be integrated among modes and remotely managed by computer leading to “just in time” delivery systems in which containerized freight rarely left the road from the port to the loading dock of the destinations. In this, much freight never saw a warehouse but was continuously on the road. Being able to manage and control trucks by GPS also increased the numbers on the road. UDUTC Final Report Page 33 9. Physical Structural Resiliency The Megalopolis corridor has gone through a significant transformation from 1890 to 2006 in regards to population, highway, and railway density. Using population growth and route redundancy as resiliency measurements, GIS (Geographic Information System) was used to map the changes in the Northeast corridor from 1890 to 2006. The Northeast corridor’s rail network density (Figure 13), road network density (Figure 14), and population density (Figure 15), were each graphed for four time periods from 1890 to 2006. They were then compared (Figure 16) to determine the relationship between route redundancy and population growth. The figures provided were selected based on the earliest and most recent time periods for each measurement. It is apparent that as population increased, the networks quickly developed to support the growth. In 1890, the average county population was approximately 100,000 people and the transportation network consisted of minimal fixed route rail lines. By the 1920’s, the development of the automobile spurred highway development continuing through 1947. The most significant population and network growth occurred from 1947 to 2006 in terms of highway interconnectivity within and between the major metropolitan areas. This route redundancy has evolved simultaneously with the growing average county population of approximately 500,000 as shown in the 2006 comparison map (Figure 6). Although in the past, highway/railway networks have been developing at a rate to support the growing capacity, this relationship has started to weaken since 1990 and initiates the question will this interdependency be able to continue throughout future years? The next step would be to evaluate population projections and evaluate how the future transportation networks will have to adapt and respond to the growing population within the Megalopolis corridor. UDUTC Final Report Page 34 Figure 13-Northeast Corridor Rail Network Density from 1890 to 2006 Figure 14-Northeast Corridor Road Density from 1920 to 2006 UDUTC Final Report Page 35 Figure 15-Northeast Corridor Population Density from 1890 to 2006 Figure 16-Comparison of Northeast Corridor Population, Rail Network, and Road Network Density from 1890 to 2006 UDUTC Final Report Page 36 10. Community Impact, Planning Processes and a Regional Perspective As illustrated in Figures 13 through 16, the settlement patterns have evolved such that there is a continuum of development throughout the corridor. Superimposed on this is a variety of planning processes as documented by Beauchamp and Warren (2009). UDUTC Final Report Page 37 11. Data Needs The following section addresses information and issues that would allow for a more complete assessment of the BosFolk corridor. The data needs listed take into account both the academic and practitioner perspectives of transportation planning in the northeast Megalopolis. The list includes both specific data as well as general planning concepts that require further evaluation, development, or management. In general, the data needs were gathered based on unavailability of the information, difficulty in applying theories, or lack of concept implementation. The data needs listed below suggests that continuing research in this topic would be valuable to obtaining a more comprehensive perspective of the BosFolk corridor and its resiliency. Current maps of commutersheds and freightsheds- Miller (1975) provides a very detailed commutershed map of the northeastern corridor (see page XXXX) for 1975 showing population % that work in the central cities. A more up to date version would be beneficial as well as a similar map showing freightsheds. Availability of MPO/local plans- Individual MPO/ local plans should be available and accessible for all jurisdictions throughout the corridor and formatted in order to easily share and combine data. For example, if an MPO has a 20 -year plan, it should relate and correspond to the adjacent MPO’s long range plans and reflect each other’s goals. Prioritization of planning philosophies- Throughout the northeast corridor, jurisdictional planning philosophies should be aligned and prioritized on the similar scales through balancing issues such as health and safety, environmental preservation, and economic development. The priorities of each jurisdiction should be evaluated and compared to understand fluctuations in planning goals throughout the region. Operationalize resiliency- The term resiliency should be operationalized through the development of a matrix of resiliency measures in order to support implementation through DOT and MPO plans. Currently the term “resiliency” is difficult to implement from the practical perspective and therefore needs to be broken down into a set of design measurements that can be utilized by practitioners throughout the region. Further resiliency analysis of past incidents- Past incidents such as I-95 shut down in Philadelphia and WI-35 Minneapolis Bridge collapse should be further analyzed from a resiliency perspective. The analysis of past incidents serve as examples of how to better prepare DOT’s and MPO’s for similar events as well as promote more efficient recovery. Failure assessment- An assessment should be performed of how close the northeast corridor is to failure from a transportation planning perspective. Measures such as congestion, travel time, route redundancy, and structural degradation should be used to measure the failure rate of the corridor. Evaluation of jurisdictional collaboration- Jurisdictions (both MPO’s and DOT’s) should be assessed based on how much collaboration between them and other jurisdictions is currently used throughout the northeast corridor. This current collaboration should be compared to how much is necessary to make significant advancements in regional planning. UDUTC Final Report Page 38 Classify regions based on typology- Regions throughout the corridor should be organized based on typological themes such as urban/rural/ suburban or interstate/ noninterstate. This typological classification is helpful in avoiding implementation of plans that may be affective in one location but may fail in another. Economic assessment- An economic assessment of the corridor should be evaluated to determine current economic conditions. In addition, current funding throughout jurisdictions should be compared in order to determine funding priorities. UDUTC Final Report Page 39 12. Conclusions and Next Steps The challenges facing all highly developed megapolitan corridors must be recognized and addressed. The problems of congestion, environmental degradation, structural deterioration, and social inequities resulting from the current form of urban development in the US have not been adequately resolved through past approaches of delegating authority of sections of the corridor to state DOT’s or local MPO’s. The problems facing the megapolitan corridors that increasingly come to shape the landscape of the future know no boundaries such as state lines, watersheds, or city limits. Therefore, responses must encompass regional action. The theories of Gottmann, revisited by Lang, Dhavale, Morrill, Pell, Todorovich et al, Van Eckardt, Vicino et al, and others, hold potential for addressing today’s transportation and infrastructure needs, as well as tomorrow’s. Visually, the development that spans continuously from New Hampshire to Northern Virginia is remarkable. The physical development of the Northeast corridor combines with the corridor’s political, economic, and social supremacy to enable the region to attain a worldly importance. “No other section of the United States has such a large concentration of population, with such a high average density, spread over such a large area. And no other section has a comparable role within the nation or a comparable importance in the world” (Gottmann, 1961). Though Gottmann wrote this in 1961, the same largely remains true today for the corridor. Politically, it is a center of government for both the nation and world including facilities such as the White House, the Pentagon, and the United Nations Headquarters (Pell, 1966). Economically, the corridor has the greatest concentration of financial power and its residents receive the nation’s highest average income (Pell, 1966). Socially, the corridor leads the country in higher learning institutions as well as book publishing, radio, and TV broadcasting (Pell, 1966). These factors, true in 1961 and 2007, are just some of the reasons that Gottmann (1961) claimed Megalopolis as one of the most influential corridors in the world. For these reasons, the region continues to be a subject of much research today. Though the region is proving unmanageable and unsustainable, the value of the resources found in Northeast corridor are too great to be given up on. Rather, continued research in how best to manage this complex corridor is vitally needed. UDUTC Final Report Page 40 13. Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank the University Transportation Center for sponsoring this research. UDUTC Final Report Page 41 14. References Beard, Charles A. and Mary R. Beard. (1921). History of the United States. Macmillan Company: New York. Retrieved from www.gutenberg.org/files/16960/16960-h/19690-h.htm on November 8, 2007. Bruneau, Michel, Stephanie E. Chang, Ronald T. Eguchi, George C. Lee, Thomas D. O’Rourke, Andrei M. Reinhorn, Masanobu Shinozuka, Kathleen Tierney, William A. Wallace and Detlof von Winterfeldt. (2003). “A Framework to Quantitatively Assess and Enhance the Seismic Resilience of Communities.” Earthquake Spectra 19(4): 737-38. Cova, Thomas and Steven Conger. (2004). “Transportation Hazards” in Transportation Engineers Handbook, M. Kutz (ed.), in press. DeCerreno, Alison L. C. (2007). The Future of Transportation in the Northeast Corridor, 20072025: Rail Transportation. New York: NYU Wagner Rudin Center. Gallis, Michael, Gary Moll, and Heather Millar. (2007). People – Nature: The Natural Network, ARCNews Online, Fall. Gottmann, Jean. (1961) Megalopolis: the Urbanized Northeastern Seaboard of the US. Cambridge: MIT Press. Houk, Randy. (2006). Railroad History. Retrieved on November 4, 2007 from http://www.sdrm.org/history/timeline/. Kathryn Foster. (2006). A Case Study Approach to Understanding Regional Resilience. University of California Berkeley. Retrieved on May 2, 2006 from http://repositories.cdlib.org/iurd/wps/. Lang, Robert E. and Arthur C. Nelson. (2007) Beyond the Metroplex: Examining Commuter Patterns at the “Megapolitan” Scale. Lincoln Institue of Land Policy. Lang, Robert E. and Dawn Dhavale. (2005). Beyond Megalopolis: Exploring America’s New “Megapolitan” Geography. Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech Census Report 05:01. Merriam-Webster’s Online Dictionary. (2008). Resiliency. Retrieved on June 12, 2008 from http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/resilience. Miller, Delbert C. (1975). Leadership and Power in the Bos-Wash Megalopolis. New York: John Wiley and Sons Inc. Morrill Richard. (2006). "Classic map revisited: The growth of Megalopolis." Professional Geographer. 58(2) 155-160. Pell, Claiborne. (1966). Megalopolis Unbound. New York: Frederick A. Praeger. Regional Plan Association. Northeast Megaregion: 2050. Retrieved on December 15, 2007 from http://www.rpa.org/pdf/Northeast_Report_sm.pdf. Sussman, Joseph. (2000). “Introduction to Transportation Systems.” Boston: Artech House. UDUTC Final Report Page 42 Todorovich, Petra, and Sharath Vallabhajosyula ed. (2007) “Northeast Megaregion 2050: A Common Future” Regional Plan Association. U.S. Census Bureau. Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas. April 2009. http://www.census.gov/population/www/metroareas/metroarea.html. Accessed on May 10, 2009. Van Eckardt, Wolf. (1964). The Challenge of Megalopolis. Washington D. C.: The Macmillan Company. Vicino, Thomas J., Bernadette Hanlon and John Rennie Short. (2007) Megalopolis 50 Years On: The Transformation of a City Region. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 31.2 344-367. Ward, James A. (1986). Railroads and the Character of America 1820-1887. Knoxville: The University of Tennessee Press. Beauchamp, David and Robert Warren, “Transportation Policy and Governance in the Northeast Corridor: An Overview of Major Public Agencies” Final Report University of Delaware, University Transportation Center, August, 2009. UDUTC Final Report Page 43 15. Appendix A- Data Sources The data sources used in this research were divided into two categories: general data sources and area specific. The general data sources (Table A-1) consist of population statistics, rail and highway networks, commute data, census statistical designations, and MPO jurisdictions. These general data sources can be applied across a variety of the nine aspects of the corridor addressed in this report. Table A-2 displays the area specific data sources which are categorized based on the nine areas researched in relation to the BosWash corridor. Table A-2 is incomplete and as such is merely illustrative.These sources were collected with the intention of addressing a specific research area related to the corridor. Table A.1- General Data Sources Population Statistics NHGIS National Historic Geographic Information Systems. (2007) Historic Population Data. Retrieved from www.nhgis.org on November 22, 2007. Historic (18901960) Census United States Census Bureau. (2006). Population, Retrieved on November 21, 2007 from http://www.census.gov/. Current Lang, Robert. E, and Dawn Dhavale. (2005). Beyond Megalopolis: Exploring America’s New “Megapolitan” Geography. Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech Census Report 05:01. Megalopolis Population Changes/ 10 Megaregions Statistical Areas by Year Metro/Micro Statistical Regions Metropolitan Planning Organization Census Highway Network BTS BTS Rand McNally Rand McNally UDUTC Final Report Department of Commerce Census Bureau. (2008) Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas. Retrieved on July 17, 2008 from http://www.census.gov/population/www/estimates/metroarea.html. Bureau of Transportation Statistics National Transportation Atlas Database (2006).Metropolitan Planning Organizations. Retrieved from http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_atlas_database/2006/ on November 8, 2007. BTS National Transportation Atlas Database (2006). US Interstate Highway System. Retrieved from http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_atlas_database/2006/ on November 8, 2007. Rand McNally and Company. (1947) Road map United States. David Rumsey Map Collection: Cartography Associates. Chicago: Rand McNally. Retrieved from http://www.davidrumsey.com/detail?id=1-1-23824-920008&name=Road+map+United+States. on November 8, 2007. Droz, Robert (2004). Maps from History. Rand McNally. Retrieved from http://www.geocities.com/rvdroz/maps.htm on November 8, 2007. GIS shapefile of MPO regions and labels 2006 Road Network 1947 Road Network 1928, 1938,1953, 1957 Road Network Page 44 Rail Network BTS BTS National Transportation Atlas Database (2006). US Railway Network. Retrieved from http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_atlas_database/2006/ on November 8, 2007. Rand McNally and Company. (1947) U.S. Rail and Canals. David Rumsey Map Collection: Cartography Associates. Chicago: Rand McNally. Retrieved from http://www.davidrumsey.com/detail?id=1-1-23823-920007&name=United+States on November 8, 2007. Beard, Charles A. and Mary R. Beard. (1921). History of the United States. Macmillan Company: New York. Retrieved from www.gutenberg.org/files/16960/16960-h/19690-h.htm on November 8, 2007. Mitchell, Samuel Augustus. (1890) Railroad map U.S. David Rumsey Map Collection: Cartography Associates. Philadelphia: John Y. Huber and Co. Retrieved from http://www.davidrumsey.com/detail?id=1-1-305571140084&name=Railroad+map+U+S+ on November 8, 2007. Regional Plan Association. Northeast Megaregion: 2050. Retrieved on December 15, 2007 from http://www.rpa.org/pdf/NortheastReport.sm.pdf 2006 Rail Network Miller, Delbert C. (1975). Leadership and Power in the Bos-Wash Megalopolis. New York: John Wiley and Sons Inc. DeCerreno, Alison L. C. (2007). The Future of Transportation in the Northeast Corridor, 20072025: Rail Transportation. New York: NYU Wagner Rudin Center. Commutersheds MDSHA Haley, Michael. Chief Regional and Intermodal Planning Division, Office of Planning and Preliminary Engineering at MD State Highway Association I-95 Projects MDSHA Thompson, Jim. Assistant Division Chief at MD State Highway Association Chronology of MD Roads Rand McNally Travel/ Commute Data MD Highways RPA 1947 Rail Network 1918 Rail Network 1890 Rail Network Commute Durations Miles Traveled by Mode http://www.uppermidwestfreight.org/files/finalreport.pdf UDUTC Final Report Page 45 Table A.2- Area Specific Data Sources Area Evolution of Structure and of Multimodal Transportatio n Spine Modal Vehicular Use Trends Operations and Capacity Land Use Trends and Context Environment and Emissions Economic Character and Impact Physical structural resiliency Name Source Literature Notes Link Volumes – Freight Analysis Framework HPMS data Data Dictionary: http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_atlas_database/2007/html/hpms.html Includes PSR and number of lanes Local data http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/net/2002inventory.html#inventorydata HPMS data Data Dictionary: http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_atlas_database/2007/html/hpms.html Includes PSR NBI Structurally Deficient Bridges http://www.bts.gov/programs/geographic_information_services/maps/structurally_deficient_bridges_on_the_ national_highway_system/ Not a good measure Community Impact Planning Process UDUTC Final Report Beauchamp and Warren (2009) Page 46 16. Appendix B – Regional Workshop The following notes are gathered from the regional workshop held on May 15, 2008 at University of Delaware, as well as follow up meetings with members of the Maryland State Highway Association. The workshop was held with the intention of understanding the perspectives of transportation practitioners in planning for corridor resiliency. The workshop participants provided valuable input regarding their personal views as well as their professional thoughts on the current and future state of the BosWash corridor. General Key Issues: 1. Role of I-95 Coalition: connects areas of high density, as well as low density. The coalition is trying to address administrative issues. Two purposes: Recognize what's happening throughout the corridor Have stakeholders extend beyond the question of “so what?” and to engage them 2. Inclusion of Norfolk/Richmond VA in Megalopolis to make up the BosFolk corridor (heavy freight movement between Norfolk and points north) 3. Demand for intelligent transportation systems (ITS) particularly within the I-95 corridor coalition 4. Population forecasting and determining projections (over vs. under) 5. The definition of “urban” areas has drastically changed from 1950 to the present 6. Improve park and ride facilities in terms of their location and effectiveness 7. Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) issues: for some land uses to function requires VMT to increase (Not certain how high it will go before trends change) 8. Definition of resiliency must be determined through performance measures (travel time, travel speed) 9. Redundancy of road networks- redundancy may be present however due to missing connections alternative routes are not accessible Definitions of Resiliency: - Having the ability to recover Having a back-up in an emergency situation, with different back-ups for commuter vs. through traffic Being able to maximize capacity and having an alternative support network Recovering from an incident (example: I-95 in Philadelphia shut down) but all based on cost (funding is the major issue) and it is hard to predict replacement costs Distinction between recurring and nonrecurring congestion. In terms of recurring many people are so used to congestion that they don’t even know anything else. For nonrecurring, we need to improve incident management (quick clearance) including UDUTC Final Report Page 47 effective emergency service vehicles. In addition, the disconnect between transportation and land use agencies causes a lack of resiliency -Reoccurring vs. non-recurring traffic problems - - NJ is the matrix state, arterials carry lion-share of traffic Frog in boiling water metaphor... land uses and congestion creep up and we don't realize the trouble that we're in. “It took three generations to get to this point, will take three generations to resolve it.” Non-recurring: episodic, small strategies to apply that provide some relief. Bridges represent a real weak point in terms of improving resiliency. PA's section of I-95 is riddled with bridges... (200 bridges on 50 miles of I-95 in the state). It will cost in the billions to maintain the infrastructure Ability to respond and recover from all modes (“bounce back”). Truck VMT is growing faster than vehicle VMT. Is there any hope for freight in the future? Driver resiliency: for recurring they can survive but they can’t handle nonrecurring due to not enough ITS/ real time information Long term issues should be the focus including the ability to weather the changes in the economy (economic resiliency) Types of Resiliency -Behavioral resiliency: human perspective and people’s ability to respond to ITS and other information when given -Regional resiliency: being part of a larger scope and connecting the individual jurisdictions together -Economic resiliency: is there enough economic support to allow for the corridor to change and adapt in the future Major Key Issues (By Organization): - Wilmapco 1. Knowledge of problems MAVOPS/MATOPS- projects needed along corridor Wilmapco’s inter-regional report 2. Global Freight Impacts Short sea shipping Which parts will be ready for added cargo? Ports open 24/7? Panama canal widening by 2014 3. Funding… “who pays?” Local, state, federal Example: Howard Tunnel in MD How to fund large projects that cross over multiple states and benefit multiple organizations UDUTC Final Report Page 48 4. Coordination Are there too many coalitions working on the same topics (I-95 coalition, UDUTC, GIFT model) 5. Legislation How to convince them of the significance of an efficient transportation network 6. Education/ Outreach Telling success stories Freight as a good neighbor (how did it get there?) Link between transportation and the environment - DVRPC 1. Funding for maintenance and operations 2. Coordination between agencies - DelDOT 1. Public process doesn’t capture people most effected 2. No coordinated planning for gridlock (non recurring) Transportation management system determines issues but people involved aren’t aware How to alert people 3. Funding Without tolls and onramp fees I-95 is a free ride (used as a main street) 4. Long term borrowing and short term demands increase Hard to predict future demands 5. ITS “double edge sword” Good for maintenance but then the trouble is having drivers follow what the ITS information is telling them GPS units needed? Real time traffic information 6. Maintenance Limited windows for work times (night shifts) 7. Operations No regional proactive plan and training 8. Need for regional operation Hard to give information/control to different organizations 9. Security Immediate response versus long term recovery How we react to problems and efficiency Coordination of emergency response with traffic control 10. Legislation How to collaborate without giving up control (no legislation would ever authorize losing authority) UDUTC Final Report Page 49 - MDSHA 1. Chronology of MD I-95 development (lattice development however the “ladder” approach to increasing redundancy is imperfect) Route 40 NE Expressway BW Parkway (extreme congestion) 1971- link between Harbor Tunnel and Wash DC Fort McHenry Tunnel ($75 million) 2. Multiple Jurisdiction on I-95 Toll authorities Pressures for urban development 3. Land use interference 4. Expense of operating facilities 5. Bridge expansions- $1.3 billion 6. Truck traffic 7. Capacity- 22,000 AADT on I-495 around DC (road was not built to handle this capacity) 8. Peak hours- different peak hours around Cecil County (Fri/Sun PM) due to long distance travel 9. Network Consensus to build connectors (I-95, Route 1, BW Parkway) - NJDOT 1. Capital Tolling 2. Operating Truck rest stops Difficulties with inspection and weighing ITS and congestion relief… ITS is more a congestion causer than a reliever because reading takes time 3. Capacity Congestion pricing methods Can’t build anymore and we are already at capacity Multi-million dollar expansion GW bridge nearly at capacity- can’t build anymore (not under NJDOT jurisdiction) 4. Multimodality and Inter-modality Passenger rail options such as high speed rail and Maglev Funding based on changing economy 5. Tiered corridor structure There are three to four different facilities that all serve different purposes but are in parallel 6. Bicycle connection East coast greenway UDUTC Final Report Page 50 7. Disconnections Within the corridor itself Between land use and transportation 8. Privatization of roads Consequence that DOT’s can no longer help along smart growth concepts on roadways by attaching funding to certain standards - PennDOT 1. Funding Secure and establish a plan to reconstruct I-95 Tolling (I-80) Align funding with needs 2. ITS Need complete coverage of the corridor $80 million to finish mainlining with ITS Variable message signs…good and bad 3. Priorities and scope of reconstruction projects Only give attention to structurally deficient bridges or just focus on improvements? Asset management plans Factors that matter in the economic sense are hard to quantify How Academic Research can Benefit DOT’s/MPO’s - - - - Layout dimensions of resiliency and operationalize the concept Deep uncertainty Matrix of resiliency measures Why is this concept of resiliency important? Incidents serve as examples (Philadelphia I-95 shutdown and Minneapolis bridge collapse I-35) Influences of growth and economy Economic impacts of transportation Economic indicators that will fail due to lack of funding for infrastructure and how do we predict this? Land use influence What happens to the economy if transportation improvements don’t happen? Housing Jobs Change business structures (telecommuting) How can you manage freight for the future? Trucking to rail How close are we to paralysis? UDUTC Final Report Page 51 - - 7:30 AM – we are one flat tire away from morning chaos …how can we prevent this Cooperation between jurisdictions Team effort is necessary to operate an interstate and huge advances have been made but need to continue Organizing theme of areas by typology Urban, rural, suburban Interstate and non-interstate roads Things that work in PA may not work in MD MD I-95 Background (MDSHA) -MTA owns from south side of Beltway (695 south) up to DE -SHA Baltimore City Beltway to VA line Chronology -Route 7 built to connect Baltimore to Philly -Route 40 then replaced Route 7 and became known as NE Expressway ( later renamed after JFK) -1963: I-95 opened -BW Parkway was built to accommodate the truck traffic -1971: opened Harbor Tunnel through to Washington beltway (25 miles long and cost $79 million) -1977: I-95 was supposed to go through DC but renamed Capitol Beltway (I-495) -Old Harbor Tunnel thruway was 4 lanes -1985: Baltimore Harbor Tunnel opened (most expensive transportation project until Big Dig$750 million) -Current Project: Woodrow Wilson Bridge, 12 lanes with 5 interchanges ($1.5 billion)- almost complete *I-95 : 110 mile interstate in MD Reconstruction/Improvement Projects -Interchange spacing standards: -2-9 miles on I-95 -1-3 miles on roads similar to I-395 -Current reconstruction project: I-895 to White Marsh, just north of Baltimore-rebuilding express toll lanes and bridges being reconstructed, completion in 2010, cost $1.2 billion -Interchange 543 project in Harford County for economic redevelopment -Potential interchange at MD 213 in Cecil County at Elkton UDUTC Final Report Page 52 -Black base realignment on Stewart Property in Aberdeen: Susquehanna Bridge to NE both sides of I-95 are being redeveloped where they are taking out mineral plants and replacing with commercial, office development along river (Between interchanges 222-272) - Intercounty Connector (ICC) in Montgomery County: interchange south of 198 in Laurel -current improvement is widening (major widening project at I-695 interchange) however, eventually won’t be able to widen anymore so must look towards alternatives such as the following: -toll roads= limit capacity through a demand responsive approach (reducing the number of cars on the road)…demand responsive is the opposite of supply responsive -High Occupancy Vehicle lanes= more of a policy standpoint because need to address funding (hard to enforce) -High Occupancy Toll lanes= again hard to enforce and until technology improves (automation) not full proof -example of HOT currently I-270 and US 50 Redundancy -Another term used for redundancy is “laddering” where you increase the number of alternative routes -Alternative routes to I-95 -North of Baltimore: Route 40 -North: Route 1 -Perring Parkway serves as an alternative to Route 1 -South Baltimore-Washington: BW Parkway, MD 29 North, Route 1 -East-west: MD 100, MD 175, MD 32, MD 198, MD 301 Congestion -north of 22 in Harford and Cecil County witnesses NON-normal peak hours -peak hours in this location is Friday night and Sunday PM due to long distance travel commutes (east coast travel) Funding -Based on prioritization of projects during project planning phase -Balance between state and federal funding towards corridor projects (state roads = state funding), (regional corridors = federal funding) -6 year capital program -land use planning is covered specifically by local agencies however there is a strong connection with state and federal transportation planning Gas Prices UDUTC Final Report Page 53 -forcing people to look towards alternative modes -currently MD is witnessing the following changes based on Haley’s perspective: -increase in commuter bus ridership -increase in MARC -increase in park and ride -light rail service Resiliency and Sustainability -hard to plan for future due to funding which is typically put towards present day problems due to their immediacy (there is a strong demand to fix current issues and funding is short term) -requires a lot of interconnection between jurisdictions throughout the corridor (horizontal through which the road runs) and each one is set up differently in terms of departments -sustainability is slowly being incorporated into design -Green Highways Partnership (www.greenhighways.org) -assessment of impacts and ways to go above and beyond standards Jurisdictional Framework -Maryland Department of Transportation serves as the umbrella to the following departments.: -State Highway Administration -Maryland Transit Authority -Aviation -Port Authority -Motor Vehicle Association -On a separate statute is the MD Transportation Authority -oversee toll roads such as Key Bridge, Harbor Tunnel, Fort McHenry Tunnel, and eventually ICC project -Metropolitan Planning Organization: WashCOG (MD, DC, and VA) UDUTC Final Report Page 54
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