Delaware’s Transportation Adaptation in Response
to Climate Change
Michelle Oswald, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Sue McNeil, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
David Ames, Center for Historic Architecture and Design
Weifeng Mao, Center for Historic Architecture and Design
University of Delaware
Final Report to the University of Delaware, University Transportation
Center
December 3, 2011
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DISCLAIMER:
The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors, who
are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the information
presented herein. This document is disseminated under the
sponsorship of the Department of Transportation University
Transportation Centers Program, in the interest of information
exchange. The U.S. Government assumes no liability for the
contents or use thereof.
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Contents
Delaware’s Transportation Adaptation in Response to Climate Change ....................................... 1
Contents
3
1.
Introduction .............................................................................................................. 4
Scope of the Work ...................................................................................................................... 5
Objectives.................................................................................................................................... 5
Railroad Inundation Analysis .................................................................................................. 5
I-95 Sea Level Rise Impact Analysis......................................................................................... 6
Application of CCATT:Mid-Atlantic on WILMAPCO ................................................................ 6
2.
Outline of the Report .................................................................................................................. 6
Background ............................................................................................................... 8
What is Climate Change? ............................................................................................................ 8
Regional Impacts ......................................................................................................................... 9
Climate Change Adaptation ........................................................................................................ 9
Transportation Adaptation ....................................................................................................... 10
3.
Adaptation in Practice............................................................................................. 13
Adaptation Capacity and Barriers ............................................................................................. 13
Transportation Adaptation Efforts ........................................................................................... 14
Review of Existing Tools and Methods ..................................................................................... 15
Needs Assessment .................................................................................................................... 18
4.
Applying Adaptation Methods in Delaware ........................................................... 19
Rail Inundation Analysis ............................................................................................................ 19
Method ................................................................................................................................. 20
Application ............................................................................................................................ 20
Impacts on I-95 Corridor ........................................................................................................... 24
Method ................................................................................................................................. 26
Application ............................................................................................................................ 26
Development and Application of CCATT................................................................................... 33
Method ................................................................................................................................. 33
Application ............................................................................................................................ 37
5.
Conclusions and Recommendations ....................................................................... 43
6.
References .............................................................................................................. 45
7.
Acknowledgements................................................................................................. 47
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1. Introduction
A growing concern facing the transportation sector in the United States is the potential impact
of climate change on land transportation. As scientific evidence of climate change continues to
support the relationship between anthropogenic activities and global warming, greenhouse gas
concentrations continue to rise at a rate of more than 2 parts per million each year (Stern,
2006). Currently the United States is the largest emitter worldwide, with transportation
accounting for one third of carbon dioxide emissions (Ewing et al., 2008).
Therefore, much of the discussion and efforts related to transportation and climate change is
focused on mitigation and reducing transportation’s contribution to climate change (Valsson
and Ulfarsson, 2009). As the risk of climate change becomes imminent, pressure for adaptation
within transportation agencies to promote sustainable practices and alter behavior, continues
to rise. While mitigation efforts are essential to slowing the threat of climate change,
adaptation practices to build resilience and protection from impacts should be accelerated
(Stern, 2006).
Bridging the connection between climate change-induced design factors and reducing their
impact through transportation adaptation practice is fundamental. As mitigation techniques
such as alternative fuels, congestion pricing, and transportation demand management
techniques are implemented, adaptation practices must support changes in infrastructure, land
use, and development patterns.
The advanced infrastructure along the east coast combined with the impending threat of
climate change and rising sea levels has led many to prepare for the potential impacts.
Potential impacts specific to the state of Delaware include increases in heat waves and very hot
days, rising sea level and increases in intense precipitation events (CIER, 2007). Understanding
how these impacts will affect transportation infrastructure including roads, rails, bridges, ports,
etc. is essential to successful adaptation planning.
This research investigates three studies of adaptation planning for the state of Delaware. The
first application focuses on using spatial representation and analysis capabilities of computer
based geographical information systems (GIS) to explore possible flooding impacts on railroad
corridors in New Castle County, Delaware. The second application explores the impact of sea
level rise (SLR), including storm surge, on the I-95 corridor in Delaware transportation
infrastructure, land use, and population. The third application is a case study of the Climate
Change Adaptation Tool for Transportation: Mid-Atlantic (CCATT: Mid-Atlantic) focused on a
Metropolitan Planning Organization in Delaware (WILMAPCO) that evaluates impacts related to
temperature, sea level rise and precipitation specific to New Castle County, Delaware from a
planning perspective. These three applications serve as examples to promote the integration of
adaptation practices into transportation planning.
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Scope of the Work
The original proposal for this work was developed in 2009. Since then, there have been
significant advances in climate change science, a growing awareness of the impacts of climate
change on transportation facilities and operations, and proactive efforts by federal, state and
regional agencies to integrate transportation planning into the planning process. This work has
evolved to reflect on and leverage the efforts of others. The objective of our original proposal
was to:
to develop an outline of guidelines for states and MPOs in the corridor to recognize the
impacts of global climate change in the planning, design and construction of the
corridor.
Our end product not only provides an outline of guidelines but a tool to assist planners and
policy makers to integrate adaptation to climate change into the transportation planning
process.
While the original proposal also included Maryland, accessing data for Maryland provided to be
problematic and the focus of this work is on issues in Delaware. In the conclusion we briefly
discuss what this means for Maryland.
In addition to this report, the results of our work are documented as follows:




Malkin, Chance, Climate Change and Rising Sea Levels: A Geographic Information
Systems Analysis of the Potential Impact on Railroad Corridors in New Castle County,
Delaware, Report, Summer Research Experience, University Transportation Center and
Disaster Research Center University of Delaware, August 2009
Oswald, Michelle, "Evaluation of Climate Change Adaption Tools for Transportation and
Land Use Planning", Analytical Paper, Master of Arts, Urban Affairs and Public Policy,
University of Delaware, May 2011
Oswald, Michelle, "Development of a Decision Support Tool for Transportation Adaption
Practices in Response to Climate Change," PhD, University of Delaware, May 2011.
Mao, Weifeng, "The Impacts of Sea-level Rise on I-95 Corridor in Delaware," Analytical
Paper, Master of Arts, Urban Affairs and Public Policy, University of Delaware, May,
2011.
Objectives
This purpose of this research is to examine the current state of adaptation planning in regards
to transportation with the goal of providing methods and applications for future integration.
For each of the three applications of adaptation planning included in this study, there are
specific objectives as described below:
Railroad Inundation Analysis

Assemble information for a base map for the computer based geographical
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information system (GIS). This includes the county outline, topography, etc.

Import and develop rail line data to layer on top of the base map in GIS.

Develop a comprehensive visual illustration of the impact areas in which
railroads are in danger of being either flooded or perhaps destroyed.
I-95 Sea Level Rise Impact Analysis

Define the study area for the impact analysis.

Identify infrastructure (I-95 and northeast rail corridor) affected by the sea level
rise at different levels.

Identify the extent of incursion of sea level rise and storm surge on land.

Identify the types of land-cover, and how much of each type, that may be
potentially inundated.

Identify the population that is directly impacted by potential inundation.

Explore how the impacts of climate change be factored into the planning process

Investigate how design and construction practices may have to change to
mitigate climate change and adapt to the impacts of climate change.
Application of CCATT:Mid-Atlantic on WILMAPCO

Review the 12-step methodology for developing CCATT.

Apply the methodology to the Mid-Atlantic region based on regional impacts to
develop CCATT: Mid-Atlantic.

Conduct a case study analysis of CCATT: Mid-Atlantic on the Wilmington Area
Planning Council (WILMAPCO).

Review the results of the case study with the goal of improving CCATT for future
applications.
Outline of the Report
This report is divided into five chapters. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the research and
identifies the objectives for the research. Chapter 2 includes a literature review of climate
change background, transportation adaptation, and regional impacts specific to the state of
Delaware. Chapter 3 explores the existing adaptation efforts on a global scale, as well as
specific methods and tools that are already developed with the goal of identifying specific
“needs” for adaptation planning. Chapter 4 provides three applications of adaptation planning
methods specific to the Delaware region. The three applications include (1) rail inundation
analysis, (2) I-95 corridor sea level rise impact analysis, and (3) application of CCATT: MidAtlantic to WILMAPCO. These applications serve as guides to future adaptation research and
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integration into the transportation planning process. Chapter 5 summarizes the strengths and
implications of these applications as well as provides recommendations for future work.
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2. Background
This chapter reviews the science of climate change based on a literature review. Details
regarding climate trends within the Mid-Atlantic coastal region of the United States are
discussed as well as the concept of climate change transportation adaptation in response to
potential impacts.
What is Climate Change?
Scientific evidence on climate change and the potential for serious global impact is now
stronger than ever (Stern, 2006). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states
that there is a ninety-percent probability (very high confidence) that greenhouse gas emissions
produced by human activities have caused most of the observed global warming since the midtwentieth century (IPCC, 2007).
The phrase “climate change” is used to signify alterations in the Earth’s “pattern of weather,
meaning the averages, the extremes, the timing, the spatial distribution not only of hot and
cold, but of cloudy and clear, humid and dry, drizzles and downpours, snowfall, snowpack,
snowmelt, blizzards, tornados, and typhoons” (Holdren, 2008). These changes are in addition to
rising temperatures (referred to as global warming), which has already and will continue to
occur in response to atmospheric amplified warming. Amplified warming is the result of high
concentrations of carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gas emissions (methane,
nitrous oxide, halocarbons, and ozone) trapping additional infrared energy beyond what occurs
naturally (National Academies, 2008). The process of natural warming is based on the
greenhouse effect where the majority of sunlight emitted onto the Earth’s surface is absorbed
by the oceans and land. The remaining infrared energy radiates outwards from the Earth and is
either absorbed by the greenhouse gases, emitted into space, or reflected back toward the
Earth’s surface (National Academies, 2008).
Since the 1750’s human activities have been influencing the global atmospheric concentrations
of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide leading to a disruption in the natural warming
process (Ewing et al., 2008). The increased release of greenhouse gas emissions is responsible
for the amplification of this process where additional infrared energy is trapped, further
warming the atmosphere and the Earth’s surface. As a result, long term climatic changes have
been observed and are projected to continue, including increased temperatures, heavy
precipitation, droughts, rising sea level, heat waves, tropical cyclone intensity, and extreme
weather events (Ewing et al., 2008). Therefore, rising temperatures along with additional
indicators (increased ocean temperatures, shrinking mountain glaciers, and decreasing polar ice
cover) suggest that the threat of climate change is undeniable requiring an urgent global
response (Stern, 2006).
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Regional Impacts
Climate change is a phenomenon that will affect all countries throughout the world at a
national, state, and local level (Stern, 2006). Although everyone is at risk for impact, the costs
and degree of impact will vary based on regional contexts. Influences such as latitude and
longitude, coastal proximity, islands, sea level, and terrain will lead to unique circumstances at
the local level. For example, coastal regions are more at risk for flooding, a symptom of sea
level rise, while countries in the upper Northern hemisphere are more at risk for widespread
snow and ice melt.
Since climate change impacts depend on regional context and geographic location, planning for
each region throughout the world will be unique. This distinctive quality of the various
potential impacts of climate change on different locations requires an assessment at a more
regional, localized scale.
The United States can be broken down into eight separate regions, each holding their own
potential risks as a result of climate change. The regions include: Northeast and Mid-Atlantic,
Midwest, West, Great Plains, Southeast, Pacific Northwest, Alaska, Hawaii and U.S. Affiliated
Islands. Table 1 displays each region and its associated impacts.
Table 1 -Relationships among Regions and Climate Change Phenomena (McNeil, 2009)
For the purposes of this research, the Mid-Atlantic region was selected, specifically the state of
Delaware including coastal areas which are at-risk for sea level rise. Therefore, the climate
change phenomena specific to this region includes an increase in very hot days and heat waves,
rising sea levels, and an increase in intense precipitation events. These three potential impacts
serve as the focus for adaptation action and strategies suggested throughout this research.
Climate Change Adaptation
Science shows that current climate change will continue to accelerate in future years, and will
have a significant impact on the built and natural environment (Pew Center on Global Climate
Change, 2009). With this knowledge, mitigation efforts such as setting limits on emissions will
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not be sufficient, or timely enough to avoid all potential impacts of climate change (Pew Center
on Global Climate Change, 2009). Therefore, in order to prepare and protect societies,
economies, and the environment, adaptation efforts are necessary. These efforts require steps
to improve planning, develop more climate-resilient infrastructure, and overall provide better
information to individuals on how they can respond (Stern, 2006).
Climate change adaptation is defined by the IPCC (2007) “as the adjustment in natural or
human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects which
moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (EPA, 2009). The Pew Center on Global
Climate Change (2009) further supports this definition with their own, stating adaption involves
“actions by individuals or systems to avoid, withstand, or take advantage of current and
projected climate changes and impacts…in order to decrease a system’s vulnerability, or
increase its resilience to impacts.” Both definitions stress the ability to moderate or avoid harm
as a result of climate change impact. The adaptation process requires significant preparation in
regards to risk assessment, prioritization of projects, funding and allocation of both financial
and human resources, solution development and implementation, information sharing,
decision-support tools, collaboration, and creativity (Pew Center on Global Climate Change,
2008).
Based on each geographic location, these adaptation aspects should be tailored to their needs.
Transportation Adaptation
Transportation is typically viewed as one of the “causes” of climate change because, as a sector,
it contributes a full third of the total carbon dioxide emissions released in the United States
(Ewing et al., 2008). Therefore, emphasis on mitigation techniques has been the focus not only
of climate change policy but also of transportation planning. Although mitigation techniques
are important, adaptation practice and protection of existing and future transportation facilities
from climate change consequences is also proving to be necessary. As mentioned, recent
scientific research suggests that model projections are conservative and have underestimated
the actual rates of climatic changes and impacts (Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2009).
In addition, the emissions released today will remain in the atmosphere for decades to
centuries after they have been produced suggesting a time lag from today’s emissions to future
impacts. Therefore, effects of climate change will impact transportation infrastructure and
require implementation of adaptation practices in addition to mitigation measures.
In order to protect transportation infrastructure from the potential impacts of climate change,
adaptation practices are necessary to increase system resiliency and decrease the risk of failure.
The TRB Committee on Climate Change and U.S. Transportation (2008) developed a framework
that consists of three steps for developing possible adaptation strategies in response to climate
change.
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Step 1 focuses on using the science of climate change to determine what effects pertain to
transportation at the regional and local level as well as the certainty and time frame of these
changes occurring. Typically climate change projections are most accurate at the global scale;
therefore, the challenge is to narrow the scope down to the regional and local levels for which
transportation is usually managed (TRB Committee on Climate Change and U.S. Transportation,
2008). In addition, the differences in time scales for various infrastructure, such as short-term
lifespan of 10-20 years (pavement) versus long term lifespan of 50-100 years (bridges), can have
a significant influence on how and when agencies need to respond (TRB Committee on Climate
Change and U.S. Transportation, 2008).
For Step 2, the potential impacts need to be determined in relation to the transportation sector
and in terms of various modes, scales, and direct vs. indirect impacts. Since transportation is
network-based, meaning that the infrastructure is interconnected and dependent on other
systems, a change to one location may also lead to changes in another. Therefore, the
potential impacts are not isolated by geographic region; rather they are interdependent on the
surrounding impacts to other transportation facilities. Similarly, changes in demographics,
social, and economic trends will also have an indirect impact on how transportation facilities
are impacted by climate change (TRB Committee on Climate Change and U.S. Transportation,
2008).
Step 3 is focused on strategies that transportation decision-makers (planners, designers,
engineers, and operations and maintenance personnel) can develop in response to the
potential impacts. Assessing at-risk infrastructure is critical to prioritizing projects and
determining changes over time. Changes in existing practices can take place throughout the
asset management process as in operations and maintenance as well as the initial design. This
step requires significant collaboration between the decision-makers in order to identify
opportunities and select best practices for adaptation.
In addition to adaptation in response to the potential impacts of climate change, adaptation
practices within the transportation sector are necessary for the effectiveness of many
mitigation measures. Mitigation measures alone cannot be implemented in time to prevent the
impacts of climate on transportation infrastructure (McNeil, 2009). Therefore, adaptation
practices related to infrastructure, travel behavior, development, investment policies, decisionmaking, and management are vital to protecting transportation in the United States.
Intuitively, practitioners would agree with the notion that adaptation affects the costs and
benefits of mitigation, but up until now, climate change policy has been fragmented (Kane and
Shrogen, 2000). Most mitigation measures are implemented in the context of reducing climate
impacts, where as adaptation is used in the context of protection from natural hazards (Kane
and Shrogen, 2000). Therefore, adaptation of existing infrastructure and behavior is required
to support successful mitigation measures within the transport sector. The following is a list of
examples of mitigation measures with their supporting transportation adaptation practices:

Alternative fuels (hydrogen, LPG, LNG, biofuels, electric)-development of a safe
production and distribution network, refueling stations, storage facilities,
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structures and methods for transporting, charging stations

Fuel efficient vehicles (diesel)-increased quantity of refueling stations, storage
facilities, behavioral changes

Mobility Demand Management- increased toll facilities, increased high
occupancy toll lanes/high occupancy vehicle lanes, use of electronic surveillance
systems for monitoring high occupancy vehicle/high occupancy toll lanes,
increased transit/pedestrian/cycling facilities, behavioral changes in mode
choice, improved street interconnectivity, managerial changes to encourage
Transportation Demand Management plans, reduced parking lot facilities

Modal Alternatives-implementation of transit passes to encourage behavioral
changes, increased transit/bike/pedestrian facilities, increased technology to
support improvements in bus/rail service, improved bus routes, increased
landscaping of roadways, increased building setbacks for pedestrian walkways
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3. Adaptation in Practice
This chapter explores adaptation efforts including tools and methods that are currently in use.
Also the barriers that prevent the integration of adaptation efforts are examined from a
planning perspective. Lastly, a needs assessment of what improvements can be made to
enhance adaptation tools for transportation planning is discussed.
Adaptation Capacity and Barriers
As with the phenomena of climate change, the potential for various societies and systems to
adapt, will not be consistent. Geography, economy, social and political structures, as well as
many other factors will inevitably influence the ability for regions to adapt. The inherent ability
of a system to adapt to climate change impacts is termed adaptive capacity. More specifically,
it involves an evaluation of “What is feasible in terms of repair, relocation, or restoration of the
system?” and “Can the system be made less vulnerable or more resilient?” (Pew Center on
Global Climate Change, 2009).
In addition to the key factors of adaptive capacity and limitations within adaptation
management, the ability for a system to adapt can also be affected by real or perceived
barriers/ constraints. Questions behind the need, as well as immediacy for adaptation, may
arise in result of the following barriers (UK Climate Impacts Programme, 2009):

Limited understanding of climate risks and vulnerabilities

Lack of supportive policies, standards, regulations, and design guidance

Existing legal or regulatory restrictions

Lack of availability or restricted access to appropriate technologies

Costs of identified adaptation options when budgets are limited

Lack of availability of resources (in-house expertise)

Cultural rigidity and conflict

Short term nature of planning horizons
In addition to “real” barriers, there are perceived barriers related to the uncertainty associated
with climate change:

Mismatch between planning horizons and climate change projections

Perspective that climate change is not a “big problem yet” so a proactive
approach is not necessary

Belief that uncertainty is too great to take action now

Lack of useful precedents or evidence of adaptation actions (what are others
doing?)
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
Lack of acceptance/understanding of risks associated with implementation (what
if the decision is wrong?)
Overcoming these barriers is a challenge, however, building a strong adaptive capacity through
improving the understanding of climate change, evaluating associated risks and vulnerabilities,
and updating legal and institutional frameworks is essential to successful adaptation.
Transportation Adaptation Efforts
Transportation agencies, including Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPO’s) and state
Department of Transportation agencies (DOT’s), are largely not incorporating the concept of
adaptation into transportation planning because of uncertainty surrounding climate change (ICF
International, 200). The lack of information regarding what impacts they can expect, where,
and in what time frame creates a challenge in planning and managing transportation systems.
However, efforts to begin incorporating these issues into Long Range Transportation Plans
(LRTP) are encouraged by the Federal Highway Administration (ICF International, 2008).
The uncertainties behind climate change and its potential impacts on transportation systems
throughout the United States has caused many agencies to disregard the importance of
integrating climate change adaptation into transportation planning. Lack of information
regarding precisely what impacts agencies can expect, as well as where and when they can
expect them, is causing many to not act or to wait for further guidance on the topic (ICF
International, 2008). However, some preliminary steps have been made in some agencies
throughout the United States. These efforts are discussed based on DOT (Department of
Transportation agencies) and MPO (Metropolitan Planning Organizations) jurisdictions as well
as existing research center contributions.
Lack of information and detail regarding potential impacts of climate change to Department of
Transportation Agencies (DOT’s) throughout the United States has made it a challenge to
address adaptation practices in transportation planning (ICF International, 2008). No DOT
participating in a 2008 peer exchange had any specific programs and policies on climate change
in place (McNeil, 2009). A 2008 survey of all state DOT’s, as well as those of Puerto Rico and
the District of Columbia, indicated that only eight jurisdictions had general climate change
policies in place (McNeil, 2009).
Similarly, many MPO’s have not taken action to adapt the transportation system to changing
climate (ICF International, 2008). Instead they are engaged in deciding how to incorporate
adaptation into the LRTP even though the agency has no implementing authority (ICF
International, 2008). In addition, it is not clear what level of involvement MPO’s should have in
establishing protective measures against climate change (ICF International, 2008).
Based on these findings, it is evident that DOT’s and MPO’s are in need of supportive tools,
methods, and strategies to address climate change adaptation in transportation planning.
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Review of Existing Tools and Methods
Climate change adaptation is addressed through a limited number of existing tools and
programs throughout the world. The 2007 Geneva workshop was held to review the existing
tools and studies that focus on climate change adaptation. In order to further evaluate a select
number of these tools in regards to their transportation planning application, a tool comparison
is used.
A number of criteria are used to compare the tools, some of which are based on the evaluation
used at the Geneva workshop, and others that were developed specific for this research. The
criteria used at the Geneva workshop that influenced the selection include:

Type of tool-three categories evaluated at the workshop

Spatial scale-geographic area

Application time-time to implement

Main data type- qualitative or quantitative data

Economic analyses-Whether economic analysis is included for each application
The criteria developed specific for this research include:

Sector or focus area- relation to a discipline

Application to the planning horizon- connection to present, short, and long term
time frame

Application to MPO’s- ability for transportation planner to use the tool
Table 2 compares each of the tools listed from the Geneva workshop specific to their
integration in Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPO’s). This list is not meant to be
exhaustive but rather serves as a basis for evaluating existing tools and selecting those that are
most useful for planning agencies such as Metropolitan Planning Organizations.
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Table 2- Comparison of Adaptation Tools
Potential Tool
PRECIS
Vulnerability
Mapping and
Impact
Assessment
Type of Tool
Application
Time
Planning
horizon
Regional
Context
Economic
Analysis
Data Type
Sector/Focus
Application
to MPO's
Info generation,
databases and
platforms
Variable
Variable
Multi-scale
No
Quantitative
soil, hydrology,
vegetation
No
National
No
Quantitative
agricultural
sector
No
Local,
Regional
No
Quantitative
general climate
information
Yes
Multi-scale
No
Quantitative
water resource
management
No
ClEAR
Info generation,
databases and
platforms
Info generation,
databases and
platforms
Info generation,
databases and
platforms
Info generation,
databases and
platforms
Info generation,
databases and
platforms
Info generation,
databases and
platforms
CRiSTAL
Computer-based
Decision Tools
SERVIR Climate
Mapper
SDSM
CAIT
National
Programme of
Action
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less than 1
month
Present,
Short
Term
Short and
Long
Term
Present,
Short
Term
Present,
Short
Term
N/A
2-6 months
less than 1
month
less than 1
month
National
No
Quantitative
N/A
Multi-scale
No
N/A
Variable
Variable
Multi-scale
Yes
Quantitative
less than 1
month
Present,
Short
Term
Local, Regional
No
Qualitative
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disaster and
historical impact
general
adaptation
information
economics,
environment, and
social
agriculture,
water/natural
resource,
infrastructure
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Potential Tool
ADAPT
Adaptation
Wizard
Country
Database UNDPGEF
Climate Quick
Scans
Preparedness
for Climate
Change
Climate Change
Adaptation
Manual
ORCHID
Type of Tool
Application
Time
Computer-based
Decision Tools
less than 1
month
Computer-based
Decision Tools
less than 1
month
Computer-based
Decision Tools
Adaptation/Risk
Management
Processes
Adaptation/Risk
Management
Processes
Adaptation/Risk
Management
Processes
Adaptation/Risk
Management
Processes
less than 1
month
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less than 1
month
less than 6
months
2-6 months
2-6 months
Planning
horizon
Present,
Short
Term
Present,
Short
Term
Present,
Short
Term
Present,
Short
Term
Present,
Short
Term
Present,
Short
Term
Present,
Short
Term
Regional
Context
Economic
Analysis
Data Type
Sector/Focus
sensitivity and
general climate
information
decision making
with economic
analysis
Local, Regional
No
Qualitative
Multi-scale
Yes
Qualitative and
Quantitative
National
No
Qualitative and
Quantitative
Multi-scale
No
Qualitative
National
No
Qualitative
Local, Regional
No
Qualitative and
Quantitative
vulnerable
citizens
agriculture,
coastal and water
management
Regional,
National
Yes
Qualitative
Disaster and
vulnerability
Page 17
general climate
information
climate
information with
partner countries
Application
to MPO's
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
Needs Assessment
Currently, climate change uncertainties and the potential impacts on transportation systems
throughout the United States have caused many agencies to disregard the importance of
integrating climate change adaptation into their plans. Lack of information regarding precisely
what impacts agencies can expect, as well as where and when they can expect them, is causing
many not to act or to wait for further guidance on the topic (ICF International, 2008). Existing
tools such as those evaluated in this research, serve as a foundation for a tool specific to
Metropolitan Planning Organizations. It is recommended that a decision-support tool be
developed that is similar in format (Excel ™ -based) to CRiSTAL but addresses the following
additional components:

Analysis of potential future scenarios based on climate change uncertainty
o Severity- low, moderate, severe
o Time Frame- present, short, and long term
o Type of action taken- do nothing, mitigate, adapt, or both
 Evaluation of the agency’s adaptive capacity in addition to the community
 Inventory of existing infrastructure and facilities within jurisdiction
 Analysis of future projects in addition to existing projects
 Discipline-specific processes and information (i.e. Transportation)
 Quantitative benefit-cost analysis
 List of potential adaptation activities
 Applicability to planning horizon
 Focus on local scale specific to planning agency jurisdiction
This list is not meant to be exhaustive but serves a foundation for ways to improve the existing
adaptation tools. Each of these suggestions could improve the effectiveness and applicability of
the tool to planning agencies and hopefully will encourage planners to begin to assess their
own adaptive capacity.
Once a more quantitative, discipline-specific tool is developed, a field test, or pilot phase should
be implemented (similar to the field test performed using CRiSTAL). By implementing a field
test, constructive feedback can be used to revise the tool and make adjustments if necessary
prior to final implementation. The field test serves as a “check” to ensure that the tool is
appropriately measuring, evaluating, and assessing the user’s needs in order to adapt to climate
change.
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4. Applying Adaptation Methods in Delaware
This chapter discusses three applications of adaptation planning methods to Delaware. The
first application is an inundation analysis using Geographic Information Systems to identify
impacts on the railroad system in New Castle County, Delaware. The second application
explores the impact of sea level rise (SLR), including storm surge, on the I-95 corridor in
Delaware transportation infrastructure, land use, and population. The third application is a
case study of the Climate Change Adaptation Tool for Transportation: Mid-Atlantic (CCATT:
Mid-Atlantic) focused on a Metropolitan Planning Organization in Delaware (WILMAPCO) that
evaluates impacts related to temperature, sea level rise and precipitation specific to New Castle
County, Delaware from a planning perspective.
Rail Inundation Analysis
The resiliency of railroad corridors along the east coast has its limitations, one of which is its
resistance to floods. Since these rail lines are in such close proximity to the coast, they are quite
susceptible to water damage caused by floods. If a flood is severe enough, it could not only stop
the trains from operating, but could also damage if not destroy the rail line itself.
The advanced infrastructure along the east coast combined with the impending threat of
climate change and rising sea levels has led many to prepare for the potential impacts. But
before preparations can be executed, these potential impacts must first be understood. The
goal of this application is to use the spatial representation and analysis capabilities of computer
based geographical information systems (GIS) to explore possible impacts on rail road corridors
in New Castle County, Delaware.
GIS has been used all over the world for many different reasons. It was used for looking into
improving emergency response to blizzards and flooding in Shenandoah Valley, Virginia. It was
felt that the GIS maps and data were very helpful for emergency planning, response, mitigation,
and recovery efforts and that local government should view GIS as a useful tool that can be
obtained on even a small budget (Pine 1997). Another case study was used during Hurricane
Fran involving GIS models. Emergency managers used these models to make decisions about
potential flooding and identified which portions of the population needed to evacuate given
areas (Dymon 1999).
The capabilities of GIS are also illustrated through other applications. GIS has even been used in
the application of mapping tourism development (using methods of overlaying layers) in
Lombok Island, Indonesia (Minagawa 1999). In the transportation literature, GIS has been used
to determine the capabilities needed for transportation hazard analysis and incident
management (Leposfsky, 1993) using case studies of two highways in California. On a more
global scale, an extensive study was performed in developing countries around the world
(South Asia, Middle East & North Africa, Latin America & Caribbean, East Asia & Pacific, SubSaharan Africa) using a one meter sea level rise. It summarized that most areas would be
significantly impacted (Dasgupta et al., 2009).
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Suareza, Anderson and Mahal (2005) provide good examples (focusing on the Boston Metro
area) of why we need to pay attention to climate change and the impacts on transportation.
They used modeling scenarios (UTMS1) to look at changes in the number of vehicle hours
traveled (VHT) and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the event of a flood. The results showed that
there were more delays and lost trips due to this flooding, but not enough to adapt to a new
infrastructure (Suareza, Anderson and Mahal, 2005). The University of Washington and King
County also developed a GIS map of the city of Olympia and the inundation levels from current
and projected changes in high tides (2007).
Method
The main methodology used in this research uses the spatial representation and analysis
capabilities of the computer based geographical information system (GIS). The base map data is
the United States Geographical Survey’s (USGS) Delaware DataMIL ftp web site (Delaware
DataMIL, 2009). First, information is gathered to create base map of New Castle County,
Delaware. The basic data includes the state and county outline, current topography2/elevation
data (using the Delaware dataMIL Website), and current sea level information. Once this data is
gathered, the shapefiles3 are imported into GIS to develop a general (very basic) map of New
Castle County, Delaware in which is referred to as “Current Conditions” (Figure 1).
Application
In Figure 1, the state/county outline is colored in black. The elevation data is colored coded,
ranging from dark green (lower elevation) to yellow to red (higher elevation). The blue shown in
Figure 1 represents areas below the current sea level. Once the base map is established, the
locations of the railroad lines (from the USGS Delaware DataMIL ftp web site) are added in
purple.
Now that the base map is established, the next step is to add and import different layers of
data onto the already created map. These different layers include data such as the location of
the railroad lines (from the USGS Delaware DataMIL ftp web site) as well as different scenarios
of sea level elevations. After this is completed, a comprehensive visual illustration of the
impacted areas is developed (Figure 2). In these impact areas rail lines are in danger of being
flooded or perhaps destroyed.
1
Urban Transportation Modeling System (UTMS) overlays flood maps with road networks
2
the practice of graphic delineation in detail on maps of natural and man-made features of a place or region
especially in a way to show their relative positions and elevation.
3
A popular data format for GIS software. A "shapefile" commonly refers to a collection of files with ".shp",
".shx", ".dbf", and other extensions on a common prefix name.
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Legend
Water
Below sea level
Low elevation
Some elevation
Modest elevation
Figure 1-Current Conditions of New Castle County, Delaware
Figure 2 shows the possible picture of what will happen when sea levels rise. The series of maps
start with a 5 foot increase move to 10 foot, 20 foot, 30 foot, and finally 40 foot increase. While
most sea level predictions state anywhere from a 2 - 15 foot increase in the next century, these
maps serve as a “worst case scenario” for not only this upcoming century, but years after.
As seen in Figure 2, as the sea level rises there are many possible impact areas for the railroad
lines in New Castle County, Delaware. More specifically, the Port of Wilmington is the most
likely to be affected.
The remainder of this section focuses on the rail line located just south of the port of
Wilmington (Figure 3). This rail line is located in very close proximity to the Delaware River and
is vulnerable to the rising sea levels. Figure 4 shows a 20 foot increase, in which case this rail
line is completely submerged by the sea level rise. This rail line is a single track owned by
Norfolk Southern Corporation. This rail line is used mainly for the transportation of industrial
goods. Table 3 breaks down the sources of operating revenue by commodity type (Norfolk
Southern, 2009). According to the model in Figure 3 & 4, the rail line needs to be raised or
moved in order to prevent damage from flooding.
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5 feet
10 feet
20 feet
Legend
Water
Below sea level
Low elevation
Some elevation
Modest elevation
30 feet
40 feet
Figure 2-Predicted visual illustrations of sea level rise ranging from 5 foot increase to 40 foot
increase.
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Legend
Water
Below sea level
Low elevation
Some elevation
Modest elevation
Figure 3-Current conditions highlighting the rail line south of the Port of Wilmington
Legend
Water
Below sea level
Low elevation
Some elevation
Modest elevation
Figure 4-20 foot sea level increase affecting the area south of the Port of Wilmington
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Table 3-Percent of railway operating revenue for Norfolk Southern
Commodity
Percentage of Operating Revenue
Coal, coke, and iron ore
29%
Intermodal
19%
Agriculture, fertilizer, and consumer products
12%
Chemicals
12%
Metals and construction
12%
Automotive
8%
Paper, clay and forest products
8%
One possible benefit from this research would be to help railroad companies (such as Amtrak
and Norfolk Southern) who may have railroads in impacted areas. These maps provide some
information that may prepare them for the future and may alter the planning and construction
of these railroads. Some policy implications that these companies may want to look into are to
ask for financial assistance in raising the elevations of the rail bed or relocating the tracks to less
flood prone locations.
There are many societal impacts of the sea level rise. If these rail lines are to be inundated,
travelers may not be able to get to their destinations. In addition, the transportation of goods
will be affected. It will be necessary to find alternative routes for these people and goods to
travel throughout the east coast. For more of a “big picture” aspect of the impacts of sea level
rise, it should be understood that other infrastructure (such as roads and airports) will also be
affected. Therefore, alternate routes for travelers and transportation of goods may be even
more difficult to locate.
Impacts on I-95 Corridor
Interstate 95 (I-95) is the main highway on the East Coast of United States, and the main
highway through the BosWash corridor.4 It stretches from Maine to Florida and connects some
of the most important cities in the US, such as Boston, New York City, Providence, Philadelphia,
Baltimore, Washington, D.C., Jacksonville and Miami.
In Delaware, I-95 runs diagonally from the border with Maryland northeast to the border with
Pennsylvania. Between the Maryland state outline and exit 5, I- 95 is also designated as the
Delaware Turnpike and the John F. Kennedy Memorial Highway. Along with its auxiliaries-- I495 and I-295, I -95 is the only interstate highway in Delaware. The route, which links
Philadelphia to the north and Baltimore to the south, is the most heavily-traveled highway in
Delaware, with peak average daily traffic of over 180,000 vehicles (DelDOT 2006 study).
4
BosWash is a name coined by futurists Herman Kahn and Anthony Wiener in a 1967 essay describing a theoretical
United States megalopolis extending from the metropolitan area of Boston to that of Washington, D.C.
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Rail lines in the I-95 corridor are the busiest passenger rail lines in the United States by ridership
and service frequency (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2005). The rail system throughout
the corridor connects city pairs such as Baltimore to Philadelphia and Philadelphia to New York
City (Pell, 1966). This pattern forms the spine of Northeast corridor by interconnecting a “string
of cities” from Boston to Washington D.C. (McNeil et al., 2010). The Northeast Corridor (NEC)
mainline closely parallels I-95 for its entire length, and the mainline can be seen from portions
of the highway. In Delaware, it goes through Wilmington, and Newark, and connects to
Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York. SEPTA is the regional rail network in Delaware, which
also goes through Pennsylvania and central New Jersey.
The I-95 corridor is part of larger megapolitan northeast BosWash corridor based on
Gottmann’s definition of megalopolis in 1961.5 As Gottmann said, “No other section of the
United States has such a large concentration of population, with such a high average density,
spread over such a large area. And no other section has a comparable role within the nation or
a comparable importance in the world” (Gottmann, 1961).
The BoshWash corridor has political, economic, social and environmental significance. BosWash
corridor is a political center which concentrates the most important governmental facilities
such as the White House, the Pentagon, and the United Nations Headquarters. The corridor
concentrates the most powerful financial power, and the people who live there have the
highest average income in the nation. The corridor is the cultural center, leading the country in
higher education institutions (Pell, 1966). It is called as the “Main Street of the United States”
because it captures megalopolis’s important national economy. If megalopolis was a country, it
would have ranked fourth among national economies just after the United States—and that on
just seven percent of American land area. The mega BosWash corridor also has heavy traffic,
that emits numerous tons of greenhouse gases and exacerbates climate change. These factors,
true in 1961 and 2011, are just some of the reasons that Gottmann claimed megalopolis as one
of the most influential corridors in the world.
The challenges for the BosWash corridor so far are the problems of congestion, environmental
degradation, structural deterioration, and social inequities. In the future, socioeconomic issues,
along with congestion, urban sprawl and environmental issues are the difficult issues for the
corridor. The increasing VMT means more greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. GHG emissions due
to the combustion of fuel, coupled with the land use pattern and highway construction, have
generated significant environmental degradation throughout the BosWash corridor (Regional
Plan Association, 2007). For these reasons, the region continues to be the subject of much
research today. However, continued research in how best to manage this complex corridor is
vitally needed.
5
A Megapolitan Area is a clustered network of American cities whose population exceeds or will exceed 10 million
by the year 2040. There are currently 10 megapolitans identified in the United States. The criteria and terms were
introduced in a July 2005 report by Robert E. Megalopolis is a very large urban complex (usually involving several
cities and towns).
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Method
The study area of this research includes I-95 and a 1.5 mile wide buffer zone of its centerline in
Delaware,6 also including Wilmington east of I-95 and the city of New Castle.
Although there are projections of sea level rise, this research will look at the different sea level
rise information with reference to the projects, initially utilizing Geographic Information System
(GIS). The methodology simulates sea level rise at levels of one meter through five meters. At
each level, inundation on census tract, land use, and transportation facility maps will be
created. By this finding, people could know which lines, roads and facilities should be raised or
relocated, find alternative routes for travel throughout the I-95 corridor, and understand which
other infrastructure, such as railway and airport, will be affected.
Finally, this research application assesses actions and strategies to reduce the corridor’s
vulnerabilities, develop adaptability, increase resilience, and improve adaptation to climate
change in various sectors, systems and populations. The whole process is a feedback loop,
which can be explained as shown in Figure 6.
Figure 6- Methodology (Source: AASHTO, 2008)
Application
A series of GIS analyses are developed to address the questions of this research. Firstly, the
study area needs to be defined and PIAs (Potentially Inundated Areas) need to be delineated
6
1.5 miles buffer zone is according to the inundation area when sea level rises 5 meters.
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based on the digital elevation model (DEM) of Delaware. Overall area of the potentially
inundated area within the study area, area of specific land use types, population within the PIAs
and its demographic characteristics, length of roads and railroads, affected bus routes, and
evacuation routes are calculated.
The study area is a 1.5 mile buffer zone of I-95’s centerline, including Wilmington east of I-95,
the city of New Castle, and the town of Newport. Figure 3.1 shows the study area.
Figure 7-Study Area
There are many possible areas impacted in northern New Castle County, DE as the sea level
rises. However, the southeast side of Wilmington, the whole City of New Castle and Newport
are the most vulnerable areas likely to be affected. By creating inundation layers in GIS, we can
clearly identify which part of I-95 and which area of each census tracts will be inundated (Figure
8 and 9). 7
7
I-95 is elevated through some marsh. Because of lack of elevation data for I-95, the elevation parts are not
considered in Figure 9. Therefore, I-95 is not so seriously covered by water as shown in Figure 9.
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Figure 8- Current conditions
highlighting the vulnerable areas.
Figure 9- 5 meter sea level rise
affecting the vulnerable areas.
Overall area, the area of each land-use type, overall length of roads, railways and bus routes,
total population and its demographic characteristics within PIAs are calculated. To calculate
overall area, the first step is to select the DEM by value. For example, when the sea level rises
3m, the elevation value should be >0 and ≤3. A new layer can be created from the selection.
This layer would be the inundated area when the sea level rises 3m.8
To calculate area of each land-use type within PIAs, the land use and land cover layer need to
be reclassified. Small categories will be reclassified into larger categories. According to the land
use and land cover classification system and the standard land use code, the first level of land
use categories include urban and built-up land, agricultural land, rangeland, forest land,
wetland, barren land, tundra, and perennial snow or ice (ANDERSON et al.,1976). However,
there is no tundra and perennial snow or ice within the study area. Therefore in the following
study, these two types of land will not be analyzed. Among the first level, the urban and builtup land is the most important and also the most vulnerable land type. It will be classified into
the second level, which includes residential, commercial and services, industrial, transportation,
8
The method to calculate the overall area is implemented as the following steps in GIS:

Open the layer’s attribute table, click on Options

Choose Add Field

Name the new field (e.g., Area) and make it Double type (numeric, double precision).

Right-click on the name of the attribute (e.g, Area) and choose Calculate Geometry.

Right-click the Area again and choose statistics, and the sum in the table of statistics would be the overall
area.
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communication and utilities, industrial and commercial complexes, institutional/governmental,
recreational, mixed urban or built-up land and other urban or built-up land areas (Figure 10).
After the reclassification, using the new land use and land cover layer to intersect with the PIAs
layer, the layers of inundated areas in different types of land use will be created. Following the
steps above, the inundated areas for each land-use type could be calculated.
Figure 10-Map of Land Use and Land Cover9
Transportation systems are one of the most vulnerable systems within PIAs. To calculate the
length of roads and railways as well as their volumes and other traffic features within PIAs, a
base map with basic data is needed. The base roads and railways used in this research are
displayed in Figure 11. These base files capture all major road and rail links in the study area,
and include many local links as well. New Castle County’s roadway file was obtained from
9
Data used in this map is LULC 2007, from datamil.delaware.gov
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DelDOT via WILMAPCO. It contains those major, minor and local roadways with associated
traffic data.
Figure 11-Base roads and railways
The traffic data obtained from WILMAPCO contains the bus routes, evacuation routes, and
traffic volume. Utilizing the “intersect10” of road, railroad, bridge layers and PIAs layers, we
could find the roads and railroads within PIAs. 11
10
Computes a geometric intersection of the Input Features. Features or portions of features which overlap in all
layers and/or feature classes will be written to the Output Feature Class.
11
The overall length of roads and railroads in PIAs could be calculated as follows:

Use the intersect function to create the inundated roads and railroads layers.

Open the attribute table, and right click the length.

Select the statistics. The sum of the length from the statistics table is the result.
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Through GIS this research application analyzed total area, area of each land use type, overall
length of roads and railways, bus routes and evacuation routes in PIAs. When sea level rises
from 1 meter to 5 meters, 1,328 acres to 9,629 acres of land will be inundated (See Table 4).
Among these lands, 465 acres to 5,899 acres of urban and built-up land will be impacted. 1.49
miles to 30.09 miles major and important local roads, and 1.09 to 41.22 miles major railways
are within PIAs during these five levels. 2,523-22,395 people, 772-7,884 households, as well as
23 to 41 census tracts will be impacted.
Moreover, this study identified which part of roads and railways will be inundated, so that
related departments could find assistance in raising the elevations of the road/ rail bed or
relocating them or build new roads/railways and relocate population. The next thing we should
do is to explore the protection of PIAs via dikes, etc. Plans for future development could also
take these results into consideration by making adaptation of the land-use especially in zoning
and comprehensive planning. For example, when deciding where to locate the new residential
area, guidelines and policies should be generated to avoid locating people in PIAs. Last but not
the least, transportation mitigation and adaptation policies and strategies should be enacted,
so that greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced, and climate change, particularly sea level
rise, could be moderated.
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Table 4- Comparison of I-95 Corridor Study vs. DNREC Analysis
DNREC Analysis
SLR
(m)
PIAs in Study
Area (acres)
based on mean
sea level
I-95 Corridor Study
% of Land
Area in
Study Area
PIAs in Study
Area (acres)
based on
MHHW
% of Land
Area in
Study Area
PIAs of NCC
(acres) based
on MHHW
% of Land PIAs in Study
Area of
Area (acres)
NCC
based on mean
sea level
0.5
3,329
6.35
1,662
3.17
8.951
17.07
1
4,424
8.44
3,283
6.26
13,777
26.27
1.5
5,521
10.59
4,446
8.48
17,060
32.53
% of Land
Area in
Study Area
1,328
2.56
2
2,674
5.15
3
6,257
12/05
4
7,894
15.2
5
9,629
18.53
Notes: 1)The numbers in this table are cumulative. 2) The overall study are is 54,224 acres (84.7 sq miles) and overall land area of
the student area is 52,439 acres (81.9 sq miles). 3) New Castle County (NCC) has total area of 315,846 acres (493.51 sq miles) of
which 272,813 acres (426.27 sq miles) is land.
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Development and Application of CCATT
Much of the discussion and efforts related to transportation and climate change is focused on
mitigation and reducing transportation’s contribution to climate change (Valsson and Ulfarsson,
2009). While mitigation efforts are essential to slowing the threat of climate change,
adaptation practices to build resilience and protection from impacts should be accelerated
(Stern, 2006). Without equal evaluation of adaptation along with mitigation, there is the
potential for the continuation of poor economic investment resulting in failed infrastructure as
a result of climate change impact.
Therefore, planning for adaptation in response to potential climate change impacts is required
to allow for a more sustainable process. Through addressing risk assessments, prioritization of
projects, information sharing of decision-support tools, and data collection, climate change
adaptation can be integrated into the transportation planning process.
Method
In order to encourage transportation planning agencies to begin incorporating climate change
adaptation practice into their long range transportation plan, a universal (applicable to all
regions throughout the United States) methodology is developed that is supported by the
Climate Change Adaptation Tool for Transportation (CCATT). Since climate change impacts are
based on a regional context, developing a single tool for transportation adaptation and applying
it to agencies throughout the United States is infeasible and inappropriate. Agencies in Alaska
are going to witness different climate change impacts than an agency in Delaware. Therefore,
rather than developing a universal tool that is applicable to all regions, a universal methodology
is developed with the goal of encouraging CCATT to be constructed for all regions in the U.S.
and then applied to a specific region (at the network level) based on the associated regional
impacts. Either agencies or research centers are encouraged to use the method and develop a
similar tool for each region. Ideally, once CCATT is developed for that region it should be
shared with all agencies across that jurisdiction to avoid duplication and inconsistent decisionmaking.
The step-by-step documented methodology serves as a foundation for further expansion of the
tool and is not meant to be exhaustive. By providing the opportunity for expanding the tool,
agencies can focus on their needs as well as their resources available for implementing CCATT.
For example, if an agency has personnel with expertise in Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
they may want to incorporate the use of GIS mapping beyond what is specified in the tool,
where appropriate.
The step-by-step methodology, based on the components and steps shown in Figure 12, are
further developed as a guide to the development of a regionally-specific transportation
adaptation tool (Figure 12). A sequential order is applied to the steps to indicate the process
for developing the tool which also serves as the sequential order of the steps that the user
would follow when completing the tool. Since adaptation plans should be iterative, a feedback
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loop is located after the monitoring plan indicating that both the usage and development of this
tool should be re-evaluated over time to make necessary enhancements and changes as
appropriate.
Figure 12 - Methodology for Developing CCATT
Each step displayed in Figure 12 is described below in detail with the goal that it can be
followed to develop CCATT for all regions.
1. Conduct climate change scenario analysis- using a robust decision theory
analysis, such as the info-gap method, the likelihood and potential outcome of
climate change scenarios can be analyzed with the incorporation of uncertainty.
The uncertainties include when climate change will occur (present, short, long
term), the severity (low, moderate, severe), and possible action taken (mitigate,
adapt, both, do nothing). The initial probabilities are gathered using a climate
change scenario tool, MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas
Induced Climate Change: A Regional Climate Scenario Generator). Using this tool
the base case scenario, as well as the mitigation scenarios for that agency, is run
based on the current time frame. The output result is change in temperature
over time and is compared to levels of severity associated with potential climate
change impact provided in the ICF International report (2010). The regional
temperature change values listed in the report are regionally specific and
therefore, should be selected for the appropriate region. The probabilities of
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being in each state of severity for each scenario are calculated using the MAGICC
change in temperature output. Additional inputs and assumptions are made in
order to determine which actions lead to acceptable versus unacceptable
outcomes. This step serves as a foundation for which types of action should be
followed in the future and why the adaptation tool should be implemented.
2. Assess agency’s adaptive capacity- evaluate the agency’s ability and adequacy to
adapt to climate change through determining barriers to adaptation. An
agency’s adaptive capacity is based on economic resources, technology,
information/awareness, skills/human resources, natural resources,
infrastructure, and institutional support/governance.
3. Assess regional climate change impacts (Regional Impact Assessment) –
complete an in depth analysis of the potential impacts on the region based on
topography, terrain, latitude, longitude, coastal proximity, and sea level. The
regions are divided based on the following classifications: Northeast and MidAtlantic, West, Midwest, Great Plains, Southeast, Pacific Northwest, Alaska,
Hawaii and U.S. Affiliated Islands. Impacts such as increased temperatures,
increased precipitation, ice and snow melt, rising sea level, and increased
frequency and intensity of extreme weather (hurricanes, typhoons) are potential
threats to regions within the U.S. The connections between regional impacts
and specific regions are shown in Table 1 (McNeil, 2009).
4. Assess jurisdictional climate change impacts (Jurisdictional Impact Assessment)conduct an in depth analysis of the potential impacts on the jurisdiction based
on localized topography, land uses, proximity to waterways, wetlands, coastline,
tunnels, bridges, and existing adaptation facilities.
5. Evaluate existing at-risk infrastructure- complete an inventory of the existing
infrastructure facilities overseen by the agency. The inventory should be
categorized on the potential regional impacts determined in step 3. For each of
the potential impacts, a series of inventory assessments are required that
address the needs of that impact. For example, for sea level rise, inundation
levels can be used to determine the infrastructure that is at-risk. Therefore,
conducting an inventory of all existing facilities under 0.5 feet would be a major
component to determining existing infrastructure that is at-risk to sea level rise.
The same process should be done for each of the regionally specific climate
change impacts.
6. Identify adaptive strategies to address existing at-risk infrastructure-explore
adaptation activities that address facilities determined as “at-risk” in step 5.
Adaptation activities should be categorized based on the same regional impacts
determined in step 3 and the activities can be gathered from literature including
Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (National Research Council, 2010).
7. Evaluate proposed infrastructure projects- complete an inventory of the
proposed infrastructure projects to be completed within the agency jurisdiction.
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The inventory should be categorized on the potential regional impacts
determined in step 3. For each of the potential impacts, a series of inventory
assessments are required that address the needs of that impact. For example,
for sea level rise, inundation levels can be used to determine the infrastructure
that is at-risk to sea level rise impacts such as flooding, and erosion. Therefore,
conducting an inventory of all projects with facilities under an inundation level of
0.5 meters would be a major component to determining existing infrastructure
that is at-risk to sea level rise impacts. The same process should be done for each
of the regionally specific climate change impacts.
8. Identify adaptive strategies to address proposed infrastructure projects- explore
adaptation activities that address facilities determined as “at-risk” in step 7.
Adaptation activities should be categorized based on the same regional impacts
determined in step 3 and the activities can be gathered from literature including
Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (National Research Council, 2010).
Since the projects are proposed the ability to alter or eliminate projects
completely is a more viable option in comparison to existing facilities.
9. Review existing mitigation activities, if appropriate- complete an evaluation of
the existing mitigation activities implemented by the agency as well as other
higher authorities throughout the jurisdiction (if necessary). Mitigation
techniques that are being implemented or soon to be implemented should be
identified. Mitigation actions can be divided into two main goals: reduce energy
consumption and reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) (DNREC, 2009). Any
mitigation technique that is being implemented but is not included should be
also be identified. In addition, a list of new mitigation activities should be
explored using sources such as the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S.
Transportation: TRB Special Report 290 (TRB Committee on Climate Change and
Transportation (2008) and the Transportation’s Role in Reducing Greenhouse Gas
Emissions (U.S. DOT, 2010).
10. Identify adaptive strategies in support of mitigation practices- determine
adaptation strategies to address the mitigation strategies identified in step 9
based on mitigation sources specified previously, and adaptation sources such as
Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (National Research Council, 2010). In
addition to determining the associated adaptation action for the specific
mitigation actions, determine the progress completed for each of those
strategies.
11. Establish a monitoring plan- develop a monitoring plan to establish a review
process that re-evaluates the output of CCATT every year so that updates can be
made to the tool and to the input data. In addition a mid-year review can be
used in case minor changes to existing facilities or proposed plans are made.
Document all dates and findings for each of the mid-year and full year reviews.
By having a monitoring plan it suggests that the usage of the tool is iterative and
never fully complete. This process is ongoing and CCATT must reflect changes in
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the infrastructure as well as the climate.
12. Develop summary report- construct a yearly summary report to highlight the
main findings of the tool and to provide an output of the results. The results
should document all steps taken throughout the process so that comparisons
can be made in the future. Also, information regarding data collection and
references should be documented for consistency.
Although the methodology consists of 12 steps, the process is not linear. It is recommended
that if at any time throughout the development of CCATT, new information regarding
infrastructure, proposed projects, mitigation, or climate impacts, the steps should be repeated
and updated. Therefore, this process is highly iterative and is never fully complete. By
developing a monitoring plan, the results of the tool can be revisited on a yearly basis for
comparison purposes. Updating and revising information yearly, at a minimum, is required in
order to ensure that the results are valid and applicable.
Once CCATT is developed and applied to the jurisdiction, the results should be analyzed from a
feasibility standpoint. The results should be used to determine the “next steps” in planning for
transportation adaptation based on the long range transportation plan.
Application
In order to construct the Climate Change Adaptation Tool for Transportation, CCATT, the
methodology is applied to the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States (MD, PA, NJ, NY, and
DE). The network-level tool is created in Microsoft Excel™ in order to allow for a user-friendly
format and a straight-forward method for data entry. Within the Excel™ -based tool, each
Excel™ worksheet represents another step in the process of evaluating transportation
adaptation. Therefore, the twelve steps discussed previously are expanded into 18 Excel™
worksheets (excluding the references worksheet). The worksheets are as follows: Background,
Introduction, Agency Info, Scenario Analysis, MAGICC Correlation, Scenario Analysis Decision
Tree, Robustness Curves, Adaptive Capacity, Regional Impact Assessment, Jurisdictional Impact
Assessment, Inventory of Existing, and Strategies for Existing, Inventory of Proposed, Strategies
for Proposed, Mitigation Evaluation, and Strategies for Mitigation, Monitoring Plan, Summary
Report and References. Each step (worksheet) of the tool is described in detail in terms of its
purpose as well as its use from an agency perspective.
In order to test the applicability of the tool to a real world planning agency, the Wilmington
Area Planning Council was used as a case study. The purpose of the case study is to ensure that
the tool is accurate (correct representation of the issues), adequate (addresses the needs of a
transportation system as well as transportation agencies), and appropriate (useful for
transportation planning at the network-level) not only for application to a transportation
network but also for integration into a transportation agency’s planning process. The case
study application process includes three components: initial review, application, and evaluation
of results.
Initial Review
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A number of revisions were made to CCATT: Mid-Atlantic in order to address the needs of a
public agency such as an MPO. These revisions were gathered through an initial review of the
tool by a transportation planner at WILMAPCO. The tool was reviewed in terms of its
applicability and adequacy for use by a transportation agency. Feedback was provided by the
transportation planner in terms of the content, process, and requirements for using CCATT:
Mid-Atlantic. Feedback included specific edits to the tool including error messages, more
detailed instructions and the development of a user’s manual. These tips were then applied as
revisions to the tool.
Case Study Application
The tool, CCATT: Mid-Atlantic, was applied to the WILMAPCO jurisdiction through coordination
of data and information with transportation planners working on a climate change vulnerability
assessment. The tool was discussed in depth in terms of the answers to each input of the tool.
The qualitative questions were answered directly by a transportation planner at WILMAPCO. In
terms of quantitative data, the majority of the information was either in the process of being
collected or was previously collected by the agency. When data was missing or unavailable,
other sources were used, or it was noted as data needs for future applications. However, as
much as possible, WILMAPCO provided access to the publically available data required for
completion of the tool.
Case Study Results
Based on the results of the regional impact assessment, the three impacts associated with the
Mid-Atlantic coastal region are potential factors for WILMAPCO. They include an increase in
very hot days and heat waves, rising sea levels, and an increase in intense precipitation events.
The vulnerable facilities were evaluated through the inventory of existing facilities based on the
three impact categories. The data was collected for only New Castle County and was specific to
the data collection process used by either WILMAPCO or in some cases, DelDOT. Only existing
facilities were evaluated and future actions include evaluating proposed projects.
For impact #1 (increases in temperature and heat waves) the pavement materials were
gathered from DelDOT and the majority of the existing facilities were asphalt or composite
material. The pavement condition was provided by DelDOT based on the IRI rating scale with
9.7% in poor condition and 64.6% in fair condition.
In terms of adaptation strategies for existing facilities, there is a lot of improvement that can be
done in terms of addressing the pavement material, specifically those that are composite (hot
mix asphalt and portland cement concrete). As discussed, not all pavement areas in poor or fair
condition are at-risk to climate change impact but by taking a conservative approach to
addressing deteriorating pavement, can help to minimize potential impacts. DelDOT
commented that they are already seeing an issue with pavement deterioration as a result of
heat specifically with composite roadways. Also, the majority of the roadways are in fair
condition with a total mileage of 74.3% (poor and fair) in need of attention to prevent further
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deterioration. In terms of outdated expansion joints, DelDOT provided information that there
is 55,347 linear feet of expansion joints with 15,679 in need of repair which is about 28%.
For impact #2 (rising sea level), since WILMAPCO is already completing a sea level rise
vulnerability assessment, most of the information came directly from that study. Since the
assessment was in progress when the case study was implemented only current roadway
mileage (interstates, arterial, collector, and local roads), bridges, rail track, rail stations and toll
facilities were evaluated and ready for application within the case study period. Therefore, this
information was used in the analysis with the understanding that in future applications,
additional facilities such as rail stations as well as proposed facilities should be included as well.
Using GIS, inundation layers were provided by DNREC (Delaware Natural Resources and
Environmental Control) for 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 meter inundation levels for New Castle County.
Since these layers were provided by an agency outside of WILMAPCO they do not directly align
with the recommended layers in the tool. Ideally, layers would be aligned using the inundation
levels between the tool and both counties (New Castle County and Cecil County).
Once the levels were created, the steps designated in the tool were used to determine the
roadways, bridges, rail track, rail stations, and toll facilities that are inundated at 0.5, 1.0 and
1.5 meters. In terms of toll facilities, none of the major gates (State Route 1 at the Chesapeake
& Delaware Canal, I-95 at the Susquehanna Bridge, and I-95 at Delaware-Maryland line) are
inundated. For interstates, there are some portions, specifically the ramps that are impacted at
the three inundation levels. For other roadways there are numerous arterial, collector and
local facilities that are inundated as shown in Figure 11.
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Figure 11-New Castle County Sea Level Inundation (WILMAPCO et al., 2010)
As shown in Figure 11, one of the areas with significant potential impact is the City of
Wilmington. The commercial, residential, and office park development along the Wilmington
Riverfront as well as the Port of Wilmington are at-risk to inundation at each of the three
inundation levels. Figure 14 displays the Port of Wilmington and its inundation at 0.5, 1, and
1.5 meters. Many of the roadways, properties, and port facilities that are vital to maintaining
port operations within the City of Wilmington are vulnerable to sea level rise.
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Figure 12-Port of Wilmington Inundation (WILMAPCO et al., 2010)
In terms of bridges, 281 facilities were included in the assessment. Based on the results, there
are 90 facilities inundated at 0.5 meters, 112 facilities at 1.0 meters, and 128 facilities at 1.5
meters (cumulative). Therefore, out of the bridges evaluated, 46% are at-risk to sea level rise
inundation. These facilities were assessed based on the assumption that if any portion of a
bridge (represented by a point) was inundated at any level, it was considered vulnerable.
Therefore, this takes into account the possibility of inundation occurring at the base of the
bridge causing issues for thru-traffic over the bridge. Since WILMAPCO’s methodology was
based on applying the inundation levels to the ground elevation, the bridge approach elevation
was critical to determining the overall bridge vulnerability.
In terms of railway, centerline miles were used to analyze the vulnerable rail track. Based on a
base mileage of 118.11 miles analyzed, 4.12 miles are inundated at 0.5 meters, 6.56 miles at 1.0
meters, and 9.15 miles at 1.5 meters (cumulative). In terms of rail stations, out of the four
within New Castle County, only one, the Wilmington Train Station, is inundated at 1.0 meters
and above. However, currently there are plans for a proposed train station in Newport, DE.
This station would be inundated at the 1.5 meter rise which raises concern for future
development.
In general, the results of the case study analysis show that there is a significant need for
evaluating, and practicing adaptation within the WILMAPCO jurisdiction. Based on the sea level
rise results, there are numerous highway and bridge facilities at-risk for inundation, even at a
0.5 meter rise. Therefore, beginning to implement the adaptation activities listed in the tool, as
well as continuing to promote adaptation in support of mitigation, is essential for addressing
vulnerabilities within this jurisdiction. WILMAPCO is completing a sea level rise vulnerability
assessment and already includes a number of mitigation activities in their Regional
Transportation Plan. Therefore, this suggests that this agency is progressive in terms
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addressing climate change issues, both related to mitigation and adaptation. Not only does this
agency serve as an example for MPO’s but the results of this case study application serve as a
model for how to begin to address climate change adaption from an MPO’s perspective.
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5. Conclusions and Recommendations
Climate change is a global phenomenon that has been occurring in scientifically measured ways
and will continue to be even more pronounced if not addressed (Schmidt and Meyer, 2009).
Since the transportation sector is one of the major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions in
the United States, most efforts have been toward mitigation strategies and measures to reduce
carbon dioxide emissions. Regardless of emission limits and reduction strategies, these
mitigation efforts will not be sufficient in decreasing the magnitude of global warming and its
related impacts (Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2009). Therefore, unavoidable impacts
are already built into the climatic system, increasing the necessity for adaptation efforts (Pew
Center on Global Climate Change, 2009).
Comprehensive and proactive adaptation planning throughout all sectors is still in its
preliminary stages, particularly within transportation agencies. Based on a 2008 peer exchange,
no DOT participating had any specific programs and policies on climate change in place and
from a 2008 survey on all state DOT’s only eight jurisdictions had policies in place (McNeil,
2009). Therefore, the lack of information regarding where, how, and when climate change will
occur, impacts transportation agency involvement is preventing many from taking any action at
all.
Adaptation practices will become essential as potential impacts of climate change start to arise.
In addition, adaptation to support mitigation should be recognized as a vital component of
successful plans for emission reductions. Having the ability to adapt from a infrastructure
standpoint as well as a functional, behavioral, and managerial perspective as a transportation
agency, is necessary and will continue to gain significance as climate change threatens the
viability of the United States transportation system.
The three applications of adaptation planning in Delaware described in this paper are examples
of how transportation planners can begin to integrate adaptation into their planning process.
The first application of railroad inundation analysis specifically targets railroad companies (such
as Amtrak and Norfolk Southern) who may have railroads in impact areas. The maps developed
provide some information that may prepare them for the future and may alter the planning and
construction of these railroads. Moreover, the rail line I addressed in Figures 3 and 4 is owned
by Norfolk Southern. Some policy implications that these companies may want to look into are
to ask for financial assistance in raising the elevations of the rail bed or relocating the tracks to
less flood prone locations.
The second application of evaluating the impacts on the I-95 corridor can assist transportation
agencies and companies (such as Amtrak and Norfolk Southern) who may own roads or
railroads within PIAs. These maps would provide information that helps them better prepare for
the future and may alter the plans and constructions of roads and railways, etc. The analyses
and results are intended for use by the governments, policy-makers, planning agencies and
academic research centers. The visualized maps could be used as tools for public education, as
well as providing the relevant communities information to make them informative and
understandable to the impacts of sea level rise on their own houses and communities.
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Residential, commercial and industrial developers could also use the maps to make decisions of
investment. The adaptation strategies, recommendations and the framework are useful for
governments and agencies as their references to address the impact of sea level rise.
The third application of applying the Climate Change Adaptation Tool for Transportation: MidAtlantic to a Delaware MPO addresses a number of the barriers preventing planning agencies
from starting to adapt. The application of the methodology to the Mid-Atlantic region serves as
an example and model for other agencies to begin to adapt. The lack of previous examples is
listed as one of the main barriers to agencies adapting to climate change. Also, the case study
recommendations address the issues associated with public data collection and the need for a
more streamlined process between and within agencies in terms of units, scale, and overall
process. Ideally tools such as CCATT: Mid-Atlantic will be developed and applied to other
geographic areas and different types of agencies as well. As climate change projections and
transportation infrastructure changes, the tool can be improved as well allowing for further
improvements in climate change adaptation planning within the transportation sector.
While data was not available to conduct a similar analysis for Maryland, the methodology is
appropriate. Although Maryland has had a climate change action plan in place since 2008
(Maryland Commission on Climate Change, 2008), the digital elevation data used in Delaware
did not exist for Maryland.
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7. Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the University of Delaware University Transportation Center for
supporting this research.
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