Measuring the Ten-Year Impact of FYE Initiatives:
Measuring the Ten-Year
Impact of FYE Initiatives
Student Selection, Faculty Collaboration
and Institutional Programs
Kenneth EA Wendeln
Kelley School of Business
Kate A Thedwall
University College – Gateway to Graduation
Midwest Decision Sciences Institute – 2011 Conference
1
24th International Conference on The First-Year Experience
©2011 KEAW
Forbes:
Best Colleges in the Midwest
Today’s Agenda
1.  Retention & Graduation
Challenges of a public urban university
2.  Measuring Progress
Requires more than ‘FTFT’ and ‘IPEDS’
3.  The Gateway Initiatives
Early identification and interventions
4.  Collaboration at IUPUI
Success stories of working together
5.  Predicting Graduations
Retention & DFWs are just the beginning
6.  Questions & Discussion
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http://www.forbes.com/2009/11/18/best-colleges-midwest-thought-leaders-public-2009_slide_9.html
3
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The Challenging ‘BHAG’ Goal
‘Big Hairy Audacious Goal’
88.8%
~50% of Growth Goal ∆ Achieved
or 5% CAGR
Cohort r2 = .77
http://www.iupui.edu/
administration/
chancellorsnews/
08_soc_slideshow.pdf
3260
Actual
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http://www.iupui.edu/%7Escouncil/meetings/
documents/academic_plan2009.pdf
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K Wendeln & K Thedwall
June 24, 2011 © KEAW Page # 1
Measuring the Ten-Year Impact of FYE Initiatives:
IPEDS ‘FTFT’ Cohort of Fall
Beginners Captures Only:
U.S. IPEDS
Survey Data
Student Success
‘Funnel’
Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
Institutional ‘Price/Aid’
Student ‘Selectivity’
FTFT = Cohort of First-Time,
Full-Time, Students
1st yr FTFT Retention
IPEDS Graduation Rates
Based ONLY on FTFT
Fall Beginning Students
FTFT 4 yr Grad Rate
B
e
n
c
h
m
a
r
k
s
41%
Of IUPUI’s Entering New
Undergraduate Students
All TRansfers
All Beginners
51% ± 3pp
49% ± 3pp
Student Success
‘Funnel’
FTFT
Other Recipients
2007-08
FTFT
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
PT
Part-Time
http://iport.iupui.edu/iupui/statportrait/data.aspx
on The First-Year Experience
2009-10
2008-09
FTFT 6 yr Grad Rate
https://www.noellevitz.com/papers-research-higher-education/2008/
student-success-funnel
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IUPUI’s Undergraduate
26% Of
Degrees Conferred < 6 yr
7
2002-03
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
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First-Year
Retention
Enrollment Shaping
Early Interventions
Fall-Spring Retention
‘DFW’ Grades
1st Year F-F Retention
‘DFW’ = Failing Grades
(Course ‘D’s, ‘F’s,
& Withdrawals)
Course DFW Measures
Encourage
Early Identification
and
Early Interventions
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B
e
n
c
h
m
a
r
k
s
9
‘Gateway’ First-Year Initiatives
IUPUI Fall-to-Fall Retention Trends
For All Fall Entering Students
v  10 Year Retention Initiative
80%
v  55 ‘Gateway’ Gen-Ed Courses
75%
v  40,000 Semester Grades
70%
15.5pp Improvement (+28%)
In 10 Yr Fall-to-Fall Retention
è
60%
v  55 Course Coordinators
55%
v  Director and Advisory Board
All Entering
50%
Current Focus:
Early Identification
and Active Intervention
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ç
65%
v  475 Instructors
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Fall-to-Fall Retention
45%
40%
F96 F97 F98 F99 F00 F01 F02 F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F08 F09 F10
Source: KEAW Analysis of IU Retention Reports
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K Wendeln & K Thedwall
June 24, 2011 © KEAW Page # 2
Measuring the Ten-Year Impact of FYE Initiatives:
IUPUI Fall-to-Fall Retention Trends
By Fall Mode of Admission
80%
Fall-to-Fall Retention
ç
75%
15.5pp Improvement (+28%)
In 10 Yr Fall-to-Fall Retention
Student Success
‘Funnel’
‘DFW’ and
Retention
è
70%
‘DFW’ Course Grades
65%
1st Year Retention
60%
All Entering
55%
r2 = .80
∧= 1.8pp
50%
FTFT (F-T Beginners)
Course DFWs Predict
Retention for All
Students in both Fall and
Spring Semesters
Transfers
P-T Beginners
45%
40%
F96 F97 F98 F99 F00 F01 F02 F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F08 F09 F10
Source: KEAW Analysis of IU Retention Reports
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IUPUI Fall FTFT Cohort Students
Retention vs DFW Grades
100%
Fall-to-Fall Retention for
Full-Time Beginners Only
DFW Grades for Fall
Gateway Courses
∧= 9.5pp
90%
IUPUI All Fall Entering Students
Retention vs DFW Grades
100%
0%
90%
-10%
80%
-20%
70%
-30%
60%
-40%
50%
40%
-50%
40%
30%
-60%
30%
20%
-70%
20%
-80%
10%
-90%
0%
FTFT DFW Grades
80%
70%
60%
50%
10%
0%
FTFT
Retention
r2
= .84
Source: KEAW Analysis
of IUPUI DFW Reports v4
Cohort F96 F97 F98 F99 F00 F01 F02 F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F08 F09 F10
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% Students Retained by Category
75%
65%
15%
FT
FT
-5%
-25%
-35%
-45%
-40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
-80%
Source: KEAW Analysis
of IUPUI DFW Reports v4
2500
Enrollment Shaping:
Fewer PT & more FTFT students improve retention
Spring
-Fall
S-F vs F-S Retention: r2 = .72, ∧= +1.7pp
4484
4465
4935
# NOT
2131
Retained
1952
1929
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4829
2155
Total
NOT
Ret’d
4821
4700
2049
1831
4380
4359
4745
1757
1576
1612
4568
4767
1688
1813
4642
1544
4493
1412
1310
3350
Spring
-Fall
2532
TR
1500
PT
1000
FT
FT
0
Retained
4762
FallSpring
2000
500
% NOT
Source: KEAW Analysis of IU Retention Reports
-90%
# Students Retained by Category
3000
F96 F97 F98 F99 F00 F01 F02 F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F08 F09 F10
FallSpring
-30%
r2 = .80
Retention
for
All Fall
Entering
Students
3500
5%
-15%
-20%
IUPUI All Fall Entering Students
4000
PT
25%
-10%
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4500
55%
TR
0%
All Gateway DFW Grades
Entering F96 F97 F98 F99 F00 F01 F02 F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F08 F09 F10
5000
%
RETAINED
35%
DFW Grades for Fall
Gateway Courses
∧= 8.0pp
# Fall ENTERING Students
% Fall ENTERING Students
45%
Fall-to-Fall Retention for
All Students Entering in Fall
15
IUPUI All Fall Entering Students
14
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2804
2537
Total
Ret’d
2674
2772
2869
2804
3079
2988
2747
3098
3183
2785
Improved retention è growth in # students
& graduations with fewer entering students
# RETAINED
Source: KEAW Analysis
of IU Retention Reports
F96 F97 F98 F99 F00 F01 F02 F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F08 F09 F10
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K Wendeln & K Thedwall
June 24, 2011 © KEAW Page # 3
Measuring the Ten-Year Impact of FYE Initiatives:
All Gateway Courses
IUPUI Fall + Spring Entering Students
Retention vs DFW Grades
Spring and Fall DFW Trends
Spring + Fall
Gateway DFW %
23.5%
Semesters by AY
Spr 11
Fall 10
#9998
42511
Spr 10
22.5%
# DFW Grades
Total # Gateway
Spr 09
30%
29.6%
#12903
43539
Fall 06
0%
5%
Source: KEAW Analysis
of IUPUI DFW Reports v4
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-30%
35%
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20%
10%
0%
Geog
138
Geol
133
MATH
-Pre
1786
10%
0%
Span
190
COMM
635
21
vs F09/S10
AY Semesters & DFW%
30%
ANTH
229
MATH
-Pre
1242
BIOL
685
20%
Soc
253
CHEM
808
10%
COMM
500
Spea
106
Source: KEAW Analysis
of IUPUI DFW Reports v4
HIST
678
Geol
155
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DEPARTMENT/Class
#DFWs in F10/S11
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Semesters by AY - Excluding Learning Communities
DFW ∧
Overall DFW
Reduction
Spr – 0.3pp
Fall – 1.2pp
Spr 10
-0.2 pp
Fall 09
-1.2 pp
Focused on Fall
FTFT Students
Spr 09
-0.3 pp
Fall 08
-1.5 pp
Spr 08
-0.4 pp
Fall 07
-1.3 pp
Spr 07
-0.3 pp
-1.1 pp
Fall 06
DFW
23
22
Learning Communities
Direct Impact on DFWs
-1.1 pp
CIT
156
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5 Years ~ $39.9 m
Tuition @ $725/course
Fall 10
PSY
756
BUS
628
F10/S11 ~ $ 7.2 m
Econ
108
F10/S11 - 23.5%
Spea
103
POLS
124
F08/S09 ~ $ 8.0 m
-0.3 pp
Span
136
ENG
892
ENG
1133
BUS
932
F07/S08 ~ $ 8.3 m
Spr 11
Econ
120
Rel
129
HIST
931
F06/S07 ~ $ 9.3 m
F09/S10 ~ $ 7.1 m
Phys
66
POLS
186
Cost of DFWs
In Student Tuition $
F09/S10 - 22.5%
0%
PHIL
168
DEPARTMENT/Class
#DFWs in F06/07
BIOL
611
PHIL
247
Gateway DFWs by Department
Prior & Current AY - to F10/S11
Phys
130
F10/S11 - 23.5%
CHEM
674
20%
Source: KEAW Analysis
of IUPUI DFW Reports v4
MATH
-Coll
1384
F06/S07 - 29.6%
CIT
252
Soc
365
40%
20
AY Semesters & DFW%
PSY
1367
30%
Rel
162
Detailed Department and Course DFW
Reports get the Attention of Course
Coordinators and Administrators
MATH
-Coll
1686
50%
40%
LEAR
COM
641
LEAR
COM
415
-90%
Gateway DFWs by Department
Five-Year Trend - to F10/S11
ANTH
298
Geog
117
-70%
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vs F10/S11
For F10/S11
-60%
F96 F97 F98 F99 F00 F01 F02 F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F08 F09 F10
For F06/S07
Rank by DFW%
-50%
-80%
Rank by DFW%
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-40%
Expanded the DFW Reporting and
Emphasis from not only the Fall ….
but also to the Spring Semesters
Source: KEAW Analysis
of IUPUI DFW Reports v4
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Expanded Gateway Reports
Fall + Spring Retention Trends
r2 = .84
Retention
for
All Fall
Entering
Students
40%
#11461
42634
Spr 07
DFW
-10%
-20%
50%
26.9%
Fall 07
0%
Fall + Spring DFW Grades
60%
#11122
43315
Spr 08
∧= 5.7pp
90%
70%
25.7%
Fall 08
DFW Grades for Fall + Spring
Gateway Courses
80%
#9773
43489
Fall 09
100%
Fall-to-Fall Retention for
All Students Entering in Fall
0%
Source: KEAW Analysis
of IUPUI DFW Reports v4
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
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35%
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K Wendeln & K Thedwall
June 24, 2011 © KEAW Page # 4
Measuring the Ten-Year Impact of FYE Initiatives:
Learning Communities
One-Year Retention & GPA
Cohort
Retention
Bridge
Summer Intro
Fall 2005
Thematic LCs
FYS –
excl TLCs
First-Year Seminars
Fall 2007
Fall 2008
Impact of Early Interventions
Fall 2009
Semester
Fall
Fall
Fall
Fall
Fall
Fall
Fall
Fall
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Fall
2010
81%
# Grades
1516 1692 1559 1463 1365 1222 1377 1434
1330
81%
DFW %
26.8
23.6
Initial
# FTFT
Retained
%
Initial
# FTFT
Retained
%
Initial
# FTFT
Retained
%
Initial
# FTFT
Retained
%
Initial
# FTFT
Retained
%
172
78%
196
68%
335
76%
407
73%
389
75
83%
104
69%
177
78%
225
73%
235
368
69%
368
70%
560
76%
647
72%
742
74%
Bridge + TLC
TLC
Fall 2006
Psychology B104 – DFW Trends
1473
64%
1650
68%
1604
69%
1712
73%
1546
77%
LC nonparticipant
353
58%
251
58%
286
68%
192
76%
228
65%
Total FTFT
Cohort
2194
64%
2269
67%
2450
70%
2551
74%
2516
75%
GPA
N
Adj’d
Cum
GPA
N
Adj’d
Cum
GPA
N
Adj’d
Cum
GPA
N
Adj’d
Cum
GPA
N
Adj’d
Cum
GPA
TLC
Participants
280
2.65
312
2.75
535
2.79
590
2.69
695
2.87
Non-TLC
Comparison
1026
2.43
1324
2.53
1499
2.55
1577
2.59
1403
2.79
F-F Retention & DFW: r2 = .95, ∧= 16pp
31.6
35.9
32.7
45.9
34.3
32.0
…..Describe
…..Explain
…..Predict
…..Change
Sources: Retention, Childress J.; GPA, Hansen, M.J. & Chism, L.P.
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Source: Kremer, J.F.
25
Psychology B104
Attend
Class
Did
HWK
Pass
Tests
Nonattenders
25%
No
No
No
Noncompliers
40%
Yes
No
No
Low
Performers
25%
Yes
Yes
No
Drop Outs
10%
Yes
Yes
Yes
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Course Withdrawal Policies
Describing All DFW Students
% of
DFWs
22.9
Direct Impact vs Failing Grades
Semesters
by AY
F
Final Grades
Administrative
Withdrawals
Course
Withdrawals
Spr 11
OneDrop
Policy
Fall 10
Spr 10
Fall 09
Adm
Withdrawal
Policy
Spr 09
Fall 08
Spr 08
One-Drop Policy created a temporary
shift to ‘F’s in initial semesters
Fall 07
Changing Marginally Motivated Students
. . . . depends on the type of student
Source: Kremer, J.F.
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Summary & Indirect Impact
Administrative Withdrawal
for Non-Attendance
http://registrar.iupui.edu/withdrawal-policy.html
Fall 2008
Recommended
#294 AdmWs
122 Students
with
AdmWs
31%
Returned
‘Early
Warning’
Re-instated
#153
Adm Ws
#141
63%
F, W, AW
from all
classes
Source: IUPUI IMIR Report
4.19.09
One-Drop Policy
http://uc.iupui.edu/staff/policies/index.asp
DFW %
u  Initiated in Fall 2009
-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
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Explaining and Predicting
IUPUI Fall-to-Fall Retention Trends
80%
75%
Fall-to-Fall Retention
ç
15.5pp Improvement (+28%)
In 10 Yr Fall-to-Fall Retention
è
70%
65%
60%
55%
for first-year students
Source: KEAW Analysis
of IUPUI DFW Reports
v4
Fall 06
27
Course Withdrawal Policies
Administrative Withdrawals have varied
from 3 to 10% of all course withdrawals
Spr 07
All Entering
50%
u  Impact not yet clear
45%
40%
F96 F97 F98 F99 F00 F01 F02 F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F08 F09 F10
Source: KEAW Analysis of IU Retention Reports
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K Wendeln & K Thedwall
June 24, 2011 © KEAW Page # 5
Measuring the Ten-Year Impact of FYE Initiatives:
Explaining and Predicting
IUPUI Fall-to-Fall Retention Trends
95%
Fall-to-Fall Retention
∧= 8.0pp
90%
85%
80%
75%
ç
15.5pp Improvement (+28%)
In 10 Yr Fall-to-Fall Retention
è
Benchmark
Retention >80%
to achieve 45%
6yr grad rate
70%
Improvements
in Course DFWs
65%
AdmW Policy
Learning Comm’s
60%
HS Rank é
PT è FT
55%
F99 F00 F01 F02 F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F08 F09 F10
.
.
Source: KEAW Analysis of IU Retention Reports
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Next
Steps
Student Success
‘Funnel’
‘DFW’ Grades
1st Year Retention
2ndyr/Transf Initiatives
Jr/Sr ‘Pipeline’ to
Graduation by School
Predicting Graduates
Bach Degrees by IUPUI School
Junior + Senior Pipeline & Retention
B
e
n
c
h
m
a
r
k
s
#200
MED
BUS
83
331
EDUC
204
HERR
INFO
87
100%
FY ’09-10
# Baccalaureate Degrees
Conferred by School
SWK
53
SCI
319
88
JOUR
EGTC
393
36
NUR
PED
179
SPEA
138
LIBA
322
Data Sources:
IUPUI
SCS
+UCOL
average
490
329
https://www.iu.edu/~rgistra/eReport/index.php
http://reports.iupui.edu/render.aspx/PERSISTENCE RATES/
ONEYRRETN/IUPUI
http://reports.iupui.edu/render.aspx/INSTITUTIONAL DATA/
DEGBYSCHL/IUPUI
Average # of Juniors & Seniors in
Fall’09 & Spring’10 Semesters per
Degree Conferred in FY’09-10
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
# Juniors + Seniors in the Pipeline to Graduation
70%
https://www.noellevitz.com/papers-research-highereducation/2008/student-success-funnel
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Fall-to-Fall Retention Jrs & Srs
Enrollment Shaping
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4.5
33
4
3.5
3
2.5
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34
Improving Retention from the
‘Inside Out’
IUPUI
Meta-Course
Mentoring/Support
Courses &
& Policies
Curriculum
My
Your
Class
Class
http://gateway.uc.iupui.edu
[email protected]
[email protected]
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K Wendeln & K Thedwall
June 24, 2011 © KEAW Page # 6