NSF Division of Astronomical
Sciences (AST) Report
November 12, 2015
Jim Ulvestad, Division Director, MPS/AST
@UlvestadNSF
Outline
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AAAC and NSF Background
Recent Highlights
Budget Status and Outlook
Decadal Survey and Portfolio Review
Summary
2
AAAC
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AAAC Background
 Established by Congress in 2002
 Three duties
 Assess and make recommendations regarding coordination of
astrophysics among NSF, NASA, and DOE
 Assess and make recommendations regarding status of activities
from 2000 decadal survey and other similar NRC reports
 Report findings and recommendations on these items, by March 15
of each year, to NSF, NASA, DOE, and both houses of Congress
 Membership: 13 members (typically 3-yr terms)
 4 each appointed by NSF and NASA; 3 by DOE; 2 by OSTP
 Minimum of four meetings per year
 Committee activities are governed by Federal Advisory
Committees Act
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Some Past AAAC Actions
 Task Forces: Dark Energy Task Force, Exoplanet Task Force,
Task Force on CMB Research, Dark Matter Scientific
Assessment Group
 Recommended recent NSF study of Optical/Infrared
Telescope System in era of LSST
 Recommended Principles of Access to Data and Large
Projects in Astrophysics
 AAAC members and other community members are
currently working on an assessment of proposal pressures
in the three federal agencies
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NSF Background
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NSF Background
 Only ~100% basic research agency in federal government
 FY 2015 budget was $7.3 billion, and President’s Request
Budget for FY 2016 is $7.7 billion (+5.2%)
 AST is in Directorate for Mathematical and Physical
Sciences (MPS), which has ~$1.3B budget
 AST is the lead organization for federally funded, groundbased astronomy and astrophysics
 Annual budget this decade has ranged from $232M to $246M
 Major construction projects (>$130 million) are funded from a separate budget
line, Major Research Equipment and Facilities Construction (MREFC)
 Related research supported in Physics Division (PHY, in MPS) and
Directorate for Geosciences (GEO)
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What is AST?
 Staff consists of ~20 Ph.D. astronomers, 7 administrative
support staff
 Most scientists are permanent federal employees, while a
few are “rotators” (Intergovernmental Personnel Act;
Visiting Scientist, Engineer, and Educator; Fed Temp)
 Roughly 60% of AST budget is spent on operations of major
national facilities, while the remaining 40% is spent on
mid-scale projects and smaller individual investigator
awards
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NSF Funding History
Amount (Millions)*
1998
1985
*(Constant 2014$)
2004
ARRA
1995
Fiscal
Year
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Recent Highlights
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Atacama Large Millimeter/Submm Array (ALMA)
 1990 and 2000 decadal surveys
 Construction of ALMA was officially
completed in 2015.
 ALMA is a joint project of North
America (led by NSF), the European
Southern Observatory, and East Asia,
with a total construction cost of $1.4
billion.
 At upper right, an optical image of
the merging “Antennae” galaxies is
shown, progressively zoomed into a
compact but intense source of
millimeter radiation imaged with
ALMA. This massive, dense, star-free
cloud may be the first known
example of a globular star cluster
about to be born.
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Credit: B. Saxton (NRAO/AUI/NSF); Images from NASA/ESA
Hubble, B. Whitmore (STScI); K Johnson (U.Va.); ALMA
(NRAO/ESO/NAOJ). (ApJ, 2015, 806, 35)
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Gemini: GPI First Results
The GPI spectra, of
HR8799c and d,
shown here, indicate
large differences in
atmospheric clouds
or composition
Credit: Ingraham, Marley, Saumon, & GPI Team
Credit: Marois, Ingraham, & GPI Team
2.0
2.2
Wavelength (μm)
 Commissioning data from GPI, above
left, show three exoplanets circling
the nearby star HR8799
 The image to the right shows the
exoplanet 51 Eridani b (bottom of
frame); this object is the most similar
to our Solar System’s gas giants of any
known exoplanet (Macintosh et al.,
Science, August 13, 2015).
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2.4
Credit: J. Rameau (UdeM) and C. Marois (NRC Herzberg)
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Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope
 MREFC project, with total construction budget of
$344 million
 Scheduled for completion in 2019
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South Pole CMB Telescopes
SPT and BICEP3/Keck Array
Photo by Dennis Perkins
•
2015 SPT highlights
Best constraints on the B-mode power spectrum at
sub-degree scales.
•
High s/n mass maps from gravitational CMB
lensing, including polarization data.
•
High s/n tomography of mass in the universe from
cross correlation of SPT CMB lensing and Dark
Energy Survey galaxy density.
•
Final SZ galaxy cluster catalog from the SPT/SZ
survey and cosmological constraints.
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Photo by Todd Veach
Budget Status and
Outlook
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NWNH Budget vs. Actual AST Budget
400
FY16Req.
300
~NSF input to A2010
Forecast
A2010
$M 200
ScenA
ScenB
100
0
FY10
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FY13
FY16
FY19
16
AST Budget Breakdown, 1995-2016
250
200
150
IIA
Midscale
$M
Faciliites
100
50
0
1995
2001
2008
2011
2016 (req.)
 Facility fraction was 62%-65% from 1995-2001, dropped as low as 53%
in 2008, and rose gradually to 60% in 2016 request
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FY 2016 Budget Status
 President’s Request Budget for NSF was $7.72 billion
 Congressional committee marks were $7.39 billion
(House) and $7.34 billion (Senate)
 Recent Congressional action on discretionary budget
levels relieves sequester caps for FY 2016 and 2017
 Funding marks not yet given to individual committees
 President’s Request Budget for AST in FY 2016 is $246.5
million, a $2.4 million increase over FY 2015, and
essentially equal to the AST budget in FY 2010
 Also $120 million in MREFC line for DKIST and LSST
 Appropriation bills needed by the time the Continuing
Resolution expires on December 11
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FY 2016 Congressional Language-1
 Congressional committee language needs to be resolved
in final appropriation
 House CJS language
 70% of Research & Related Activities line to four
directorates: MPS, CISE, ENG, and BIO
 “NSF shall not implement any final divestment of
infrastructure tied to the findings of its 2012
Astronomical Sciences Portfolio Review without first
reporting such actions to the Committee. Further,
such actions shall be carried out in accordance with
any relevant reprogramming requirements.”
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FY 2016 Congressional Language-2
 Senate CJS language:
 No language about specific funding to directorates
 “The Committee encourages NSF to sustain support for
the programs and scientific facilities funded by the
Astronomical Sciences division, including the National
Radio Astronomy Observatory. NSF is also directed to
report to the Committee no later than 1 year after
enactment of this act on a 5-year transition plan for
the continued use of existing solar observatories.
Additionally, NSF is expected to request sufficient
funding to maintain operations at both new and
existing observatories as additional facilities come
online in future years.”
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Astronomy & Astrophysics Research Grants
AAG
55
NWNH target (no
inflation assumed)
50
45
$M
40
35
30
2012
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2014
2016 (req.)
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AAG Funding History, 1990-2015
79.6
AAG Budget, $M
32.4 30.7 34.0
29.4
38.9
49.4 48.1
41.5 42.1
44.5 42.4 43.7
48.4
20.9 22.7
20.2 18.6
17.5 19.3 19.7 18.8
16.2 17.0 18.2 17.1
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
50.4
48.0
45.1
Proposal Success Rate, %
45.1
29.5
31.2
29.3
24.9
27.6 26.7
31.2
34.3
38.1 36.8
36.3
28.8 28.5
24.4 23.9
20.7
22.4
19.9
16.7 18.0
14.8 15.4
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Proposals in AAG, 1990-2015
770
280
311
319
307
270
219
238
78
119
88
78
49
62
87
58
76
72
50
52
96
73
59
80
89
18
12
126
13
134
19
108
41
126
33
96
36
82
112
43
134
58
104
41
128
48
119
38
131
41
113
32
124
76
104
40
122
107
100
31
138
72
136
74
112
105
48
64
223
259
242
243
102
170
91
115
44
118
144
107
122
113
60
124
91
96
135
148
160
66
57
58
157
91
200
52
227
54
274
60
239
90
145
159
135
136
1 9 9 01 9 9 11 9 9 21 9 9 31 9 9 41 9 9 51 9 9 61 9 9 71 9 9 81 9 9 92 0 0 02 0 0 12 0 0 22 0 0 32 0 0 42 0 0 52 0 0 62 0 0 72 0 0 82 0 0 92 0 1 02 0 1 12 0 1 22 0 1 32 0 1 42 0 1 5
1990
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2015
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NSF/NASA Coordination on Grants
 NSF/AST and NASA Astrophysics Division are discussing
coordination issues for research grant programs
 What information can and should be shared to facilitate reviews
and reduce duplication of effort?
 Can/should we better constrain boundaries between
agencies, and funnel proposers to appropriate agency?
 Examples of possible boundaries between NSF/NASA
 NSF could decline to accept proposals that are primarily based on
analysis of space astronomy data (new or archival)
 NASA could no longer accept proposals for ground-based exoplanet
studies that don’t directly support NASA missions
 Are there any logical boundaries in laboratory astrophysics or
theoretical/simulation studies?
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Decadal Survey Status
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High-Level Look at the Decade So Far
 AST has successfully started the two highest priority
“Large Ground-Based Projects” from New Worlds, New
Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics (NWNH)
 Budgetary realities have prevented realization of most
other recommendations that require additional funding
 Available funding has been far less than envisioned by NWNH
 NWNH, p. 240: “If the realized budget is truly flat in FY
2010 dollars, … very few new activities could be started
within NSF-AST”
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NWNH Response Summary
 Complete summary of AST response to NWNH is in
a Dear Colleague Letter (DCL), NSF 15-044,
available at
http://www.nsf.gov/publications/pub_summ.jsp?ods_key=nsf15044
 Includes status of all major, actionable
recommendations, plus status of Portfolio Review
response
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NWNH Large Ground Projects-1
 1. Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST)
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NSF construction award in August 2014
Strong NSF/DOE partnership in construction and operations
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LSST Cost Profile and Future Schedule
 Total estimated NSF project cost of $473.0 million,
including contingency
 Survey start planned for October 2022
 Expect operations proposal in late 2016
 Annual operations cost at FDR was $37 million in FY
2013 dollars, ~$50 million in FY 2023 dollars
 NSF aiming to cover half the cost, consistent with
NWNH recommendation
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NRC/CAA OIR System Study
 “A Strategy to Optimize the U.S. Optical and Infrared
System in the Era of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope
(LSST)”
 Recommended by AAAC in 2013
 Committee chaired by Debra Elmegreen, Vassar College
 Three face-to-face meetings
 July 31/August 1; October 12-13; December 2-3
 Report delivered in April 2015
 NSF initial response in Dear Colleague Letter NSF 15-115,
issued in August 2015
 Extensive discussions and planning ongoing, with both
NOAO and LSST
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NWNH Large Ground Projects-2
 2. Mid-Scale Innovations Program (MSIP)

AST Portfolio Review Committee recommended rolling
University Radio Observatories (UROs), Telescope Systems
Instrumentation Program (TSIP), and large-facility design
and development into MSIP

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Solicitation issued in 2013, with categories modified from
NWNH. Six awards were made at various levels, including
co-funding of a Physics Frontiers Center


Necessary to enable start of MSIP
Total AST funding of $27.1M in FY 2014 and 2015
Second solicitation was released in June 2015, with pre-proposals
received in September 2015, and conclusion of two-stage
evaluation expected in summer 2016
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Next “Senior Review”
 NWNH, p. 32:
 “NSF-Astronomy should complete its next senior review
before the mid-decade independent review that is
recommended elsewhere in this report, so as to
determine which, if any, facilities NSF-AST should cease
to support in order to release funds for (1) the
construction and ongoing operation of new telescopes
and instruments and (2) the science analysis needed to
capitalize on the results from existing and future
facilities.”
 This became the AST Portfolio Review (PR), with
committee report delivered in August 2012
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Portfolio Review
Status
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AST Portfolio Scenarios
300
LSST
enters
here
Assuming No Divestment
250
200
With Max.
Divestment
Individual Investigator+ Mid-scale
DKIST
ALMA
AST $M 150
100
50
Facility Budget
Reductions,
FY10-FY13
Existing Facilities
Assumes 2.5%
inflation/yr for
existing facilities
0
FY10
FY13
Fiscal Year
FY16
FY19
FY17
FY19
 Chart above shows the maximum impact of divestment (or
non-divestment) within a likely budget scenario
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General Portfolio Review Comments
 Portfolio review report recommended significant facility
divestment to enable support of NWNH priorities
 Process is inevitably slower than hoped
 NSF (through a contractor) is currently concluding engineering
studies and baseline environmental surveys for a number of
telescopes and observatories recommended for divestment.
Results of these studies will inform more detailed assessments.
 Most divestments are not clean 100% divestments, but are
evolutionary changes to new partnership arrangements
 Less financial free energy than recommended by PR
 More complexity in management and oversight
 To date, most capabilities have remained available for
science in some form
 Open access availability has inevitably been reduced
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Facility Futures
Telescope
Status
KPNO 2.1m
Caltech took over operations for 3 yr, starting October 2015
Mayall 4m
Slated for DESI, pending DOE funding; bridge from NSF
WIYN 3.5m
NOAO share to NASA-NSF Exoplanet Observational Research
Program
GBT
Partner discussions; Breakthrough Prize Foundation partnership
starting in 2016; engineering study under way
VLBA
Partner discussions in progress; engineering study under way
McMath-Pierce
Bridging to university-led consortium; engineering study
GONG/SOLIS
SOLIS moved off Kitt Peak; GONG MOU with NOAA in development
Dunn Solar Tel.
Partner discussions in progress; engineering study under way
Arecibo
Post-2016 status in discussion; Dear Colleague Letter released
SOAR
Post-2020 status to be reviewed
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Summary
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Primary Interagency Activities
 NSF/DOE
 Large Synoptic Survey Telescope
 Dark Energy Survey: DOE camera on Blanco 4m telescope
 Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument: Future DOE spectrometer on
Mayall 4m telescope
 PHY collaborations on LHC, Dark Matter, VERITAS, HAWC
 NSF/NASA
 NASA-NSF Exoplanet Observational Research Program (NN-EXPLORE)
 NASA to fund spectrometer for use in NSF share of WIYN 3.5m telescope
 Theoretical and Computational Astrophysics Network
 Planetary Radar on Arecibo Telescope (NASA Planetary Division)
 Discussion of coordination on grant funding
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Status Summary
 Outstanding new science opportunities
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ALMA, EVLA, Gemini/GPI, Blanco/DECam, DKIST, LSST
~110 research awards/yr in AAG, plus MSIP, ATI, AAPF, REU, PAARE
Interagency: DES, DESI, NN-EXPLORE, LSST
Beyond AST division budget, NSF spent over $100 million on
construction of AST facilities in FY 2015
 No expectation for significant budget increases this decade
 Divestment process to date does not cover ramp to DKIST ops
 LSST operations will begin ramp in FY 2019 to ~$25M/yr by FY 2023
 Ongoing AST budget shift toward facilities in flat-budget era
 Partnerships with NASA and DOE have strengthened
 Data-enabled science continues to grow in importance
 Challenges are many, but our community continues to
make progress at the science frontiers
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Some Upcoming Strategy Issues
 Impact of facility divestment
 Positive: some financial resources freed up; intellectual benefits of
increased partnerships
 Negative: partnership complexity, loss or restriction of some
community capabilities
 Relation among NSF OIR observatories in Chile after
initiation of LSST operations?
 Relations among LSST and WFIRST (and EUCLID)?
 Future of astronomy in Hawaii?
 Facility choices take 5-10 years to implement, and are
based on unknowable budgetary futures. What level of risk
to individual investigator programs funds is appropriate in
order to commit to operations of additional new facilities?
 What assumptions should be made for next decadal survey?
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