Predicting the Performance and Persistence of First-Year College Students:
The Role of Non-Cognitive Variables
Paul A. Gore
ACT, Inc
Method
Introduction
Institutes of higher education continue to experience alarming rates
of student attrition (ACT, 1999; Tinto, 1993). Moreover, college
attrition has profound personal and societal ramifications (Pascarella
& Terenzini, 2005; Baum & Payea, 2004). Not surprisingly,
educational and psychological researchers continue their efforts to
understand and predict post-secondary success and persistence
(Astin, 1999; Daugherty & Lane, 1999; Gardner et al., 1996;
McGrath & Braunstein, 1997; Pascarella & Terenzini, 2005).
Not surprisingly, a number of theoretical models have been proposed
to explain persistence and performance. Current models emphasize
motivation (Covington, 2000; Eccles & Wigfield, 2002), combine
motivation and skill constructs (e.g., Pintrich, 2000; Schunk &
Zimmerman, 2003), or focus on the role of personal contextual,
social support, and student engagement (e.g., Tinto, 1993; Bean,
1985) to account for student success and persistence. Unfortunately,
as several authors recently pointed out (Le et al., 2005; Robbins et al.,
2004), this literature lacks an integrative framework and a
multidimensional inventory with strong psychometric properties.
Participants
Participants in this study included 455 students (50% men and 50%
women) enrolled in a 3 credit-hour extended seminar style first-year
experience course at a medium sized public Midwestern university.
Ethnicity of the participants was Euro-American (78%), African
American (13%), Hispanic (3%), Asian/Pacific Islander (2%). The
mean age was 18 years with a range of 17 to 29 years. Students
completed the instrument used in this study as part of their class
activities during the first two weeks of the academic semester.
Measures
Student Readiness Inventory. The SRI (Le et al., 2005) is a 108 item
measure of motivation, academic skills, and social engagement and is
comprised of 10 scales. Each scale is comprised of between 10 and
12 items. Students respond to each item on a scale from 1 (strongly
disagree) to 6 (strongly agree). The 10 SRI scales and their
definitions are provided in Table 1.
In an initial effort to integrate findings from disparate literatures,
Robbins and his colleagues’ conducted a meta-analysis of the
relationships between various psychosocial and study skills
constructs and two important college outcomes: academic persistence
and college grade-point average. These authors analyzed data from
over 100 studies in the educational and psychological literatures and
identified nine broad constructs that were predictive of college
success:
The SRI is highly reliable ( ranges from .80 to .87 with a median of
.84) and has good construct validity as evidenced by internal
structure analysis and scale scores’ association with retention,
academic performance, social/leadership activities (Le et al., 2005),
and the Big Five factors (Peterson et al., 2005). The SRI is
moderately related to social desirability, although this relationship
does not affect the strength of the SRI correlations with college
outcome criteria (Peterson et al.).
After controlling for the effects of traditional predictors (e.g., high
school GPA and standardized achievement test scores), three
psychosocial constructs demonstrated incremental validity in
predicting academic performance (academic self-efficacy,
achievement motivation, and academic goals), and six constructs
were found to be predictive of college persistence (academic goals,
academic self-efficacy, institutional commitment, academic-related
skills, social support, and social involvement).
Academic performance and persistence. Persistence and academic
performance data were acquired through student records. A student
persistence variable was created based on whether a student was
registered for coursework in each semester covered by this study.
Students were classified as retained if they registered for any credit
hours during the semester. Enrollment data from three consecutive
academic semesters (not including summer) were included in this
study. Student performance was measured using non-cumulative
semester GPAs for the first and second semester.
Based, in part, on results from this meta-analysis, Le and his
colleagues (2005) developed the Student Readiness Inventory (SRI).
Preliminary psychometric analyses suggest the instrument is reliable
(Cronbach’s alphas for the 10 scales range from .80 to .87) in sample
of approximately 6000 first year college students and high school
seniors.
The purpose of the present study was to investigate the role of
psychosocial and cognitive variables in predicting college student
performance and persistence in a sample of students enrolled in a
first-year experience course. More specifically, we tested whether
psychosocial predictors would account for incremental variance in
college outcomes beyond those accounted for by more traditional
cognitive predictors (e.g., standardized achievement test scores and
high school GPA).
Analysis
Hierarchical linear regression was used to evaluate the degree to
which ACT Composite score and SRI scores predict college GPA.
Students’ ACT composite scores were treated as control variables
and entered into the regression analysis in step one. In step two, the
10 scale scores from the SRI were entered as a block. Separate
regressions were conducted using GPA’s from the first two college
semesters.
Hierarchical logistic regression analyses were conducted to evaluate
the degree to which ACT Composite score and SRI scores predict
college retention. Separate analyses were conducted using first to
second semester and second to third semester (representing first to
second year retention) as dependent variables. As with the linear
regression analysis, ACT Composite scores served as control
variables and were entered into the logistic regression in step one.
The 10 scale scores were entered into the logistic regression as a
block in step two.
Results
Descriptive statistics and correlations among the variables used in
this study are presented in Table 2. Significant correlations were
observed between first semester college GPA and commitment to
college, goal striving, academic discipline, general determination,
study skills, communication skills, and academic self-confidence.
Additional correlations were observed between second semester
college GPA and the psychosocial variables commitment to college,
goal striving, academic discipline, and general determination
although these correlations were smaller in magnitude.
Results from hierarchical regression analyses are presented in Table
3. There was a significant, albeit small, relationship between ACT
composite score and students’ first and second semester noncumulative college GPA. Together, the 10 scales of the SRI
accounted for an additional 9% to 12% of the variance in GPA.
Commitment to college and academic discipline were both
significantly and positively related first semester GPA. Two SRI
scales (academic discipline and academic self-confidence) predicted
second semester GPA. As in the previous analysis, the relationship
between academic discipline and grades was positive whereas
academic self-confidence and grades were negatively related.
Results from the hierarchical logistic regression of student retention
on ACT Composite and SRI scale scores are presented in Table 4.
The high base rate of persistence in this sample (90 % persistence S1S2 and 75% persistence S2 – S3) makes the use of classification
accuracy problematic. We can, however, evaluate the incremental
model fit afforded by the addition of ACT Composite and SRI scores.
To do this we used the Wilks 2 (referred to as G2 or 2×log
likelihood ratio). Incremental model fit was evaluated by comparing
G2 changes at each step of the analysis. Changes in G2 are distributed
as a 2 with degrees of freedom equal to the difference in degrees of
freedom between the two steps.
Neither ACT, nor the combination of ACT and SRI scores together,
offered an improvement over the null intercept model in predicting
first to second semester retention. The SRI scale commitment to
college did, however, contribute significantly to the prediction of
retention in this model. Interpretation of the odds ratio for example
suggest that a student’s odds of returning the second semester
increase by 95% for every one point increase on the commitment to
college scale. The model predicting first to second year retention is
also presented in Table 4. Although ACT Composite score did not
improve on the null intercept model when entered in step one, the
introduction of the 10 SRI scales yielded a significantly improved
model. In this model, both commitment to college and academic
discipline were significant predictors of whether a student returned
the second year of college.
Discussion
The present study offers evidence supporting the use of SRI scales
for predicting postsecondary persistence and performance among
FYE seminar participants. In particular, commitment to college and
academic discipline appear to be the most potent predictors of both
academic success and postsecondary persistence.
The present study investigates the incremental validity of SRI scales
in predicting college outcomes beyond that predicted by traditional
measures (e.g., standardized test scores). This analytic strategy
represents an improvement over other methodologies (e.g., Parker et
al., 2004a, 2004b; 2005) and affords the direct analysis of the
practical benefits of non-cognitive variables in first-year students (see
handout on selection accuracy and incremental validity).
Examining the full range of a continuous outcome variable (e.g.,
GPA) offers researchers and practitioners increased confidence in the
validity of non-cognitive predictors of academic performance when
identifying and intervening with students whose grades fall within a
critical range (e.g., GPA of 2.0 to 3.0). See handout for further
description of this methodological concern.
Results from the SRI are most useful when incorporated into
institutional (Cole et al., 2006) and classroom-based (Pickett &
Rinella, 2006) interventions.
When used institutionally, SRI results can be combined with
standardized achievement scores to more accurately identify students
who are at risk for attrition and academic difficulty. Alternatively,
SRI scores can be used to fine-tune student development services or
interventions. See handout (and Cole et al poster) describing
examples of institutional initiatives using the SRI.
In the advising office or classroom, SRI score reports can be used to
help students (a) understand the types of factors that predict academic
success, (b) help them identify personal strengths and weaknesses,
and (c) establish action plans to improve areas of concern. See
handouts describing classroom-based use of the SRI.
References
ACT (1999). Fewer college freshmen drop out, but degree rate also falls.
ACT Newsroom [On-Line], Available:
http://www.act.org/news/releases/1999/04-01b99.html
Astin, A. W. (1999). Student involvement: A developmental theory for higher
education. Journal of College Student Development, 40, 518-529.
Baum, S., & Payea, K. (2004). Education Pays: The Benefits of Higher
Education for Individuals and Society. College Entrance and Examination
Board. Retrieved February 21, 2006, from
http://www.collegeboard.com/prod_downloads/press/cost04/EducationPays
2004.pdf. 2004.
Bean, J. P. (1985). Interaction effects based on class level in an explanatory
model of college student dropout syndrome. American Educational
Research Journal, 22, 35-64.
Cole, R., Saltonstall, M., Mahoney, E., & Gore, P. (2006, February).
Assessing student readiness, promoting student success: An institutional
initiative. Poster session presented at the 25th Annual Conference on the
First-Year Experience, Atlanta, GA.
Covington, M. V. (2000). Goal theory, motivation, and school achievement:
An integrative review. Annual Review of Psychology, 51, 171-200.
Daugherty, T. K., & Lane, E. J. (1999). A longitudinal study of academic and
social predictors of college attrition. Social Behavior & Personality, 27,
355-362.
Eccles, J. S., & Wigfield, A. (2002). Motivational believe, values, and goals.
Annual Review of Psychology, 53, 109-132.
Gardner, O. S., Keller, J. W., & Piotrowski, C. (1996). Retention issues as
perceived by African-American university students. Psychology - A
Quarterly Journal of Human Behavior, 33, 20-21.
Table 1
Le, H., Casillas, A., Robbins, S. B., & Langley, R. (2005). Motivational and
skills, social, and self-management predictors of college outcomes:
Constructing the Student Readiness Inventory. Educational and
Psychological Measurement, 65, 482-508.
McGrath, M. & Braunstein, A. (1997). The prediction of freshman attrition:
An examination of the importance of certain demographic, academic,
financial, and social factors. College Student Journal, 31, 396-408.
Parker, J. D. A., Duffy, J. M., Wood, L. M., Bond, B. J., & Hogan, M. J.
(2005). Academic achievement and emotional intelligence: Predicting the
successful transition from high school to university. Journal of the FirstYear Experience, 17(1), 67-78.
Parker, J. D. A., et al. (2004a). Academic achievement in high school: Does
emotional intelligence matter? Personality and Individual Differences, 37,
1321-1330.
Parker, J. D. A., Summerfeldt, L. J., Hogan, M. J., & Majeski, S. A. (2004b).
Emotional intelligence and academic success: Examining the transition
from high school to university. Personality and Individual Differences, 36,
163-172.
Pascarella, E. T., & Terenzini, P. T. (2005). How college affects students: A
third decade of research. San Francisco, CA: Jossey Bass.
Peterson, C. H., Casillas, A., & Robbins, S. B. (2005). The student readiness
inventory and the big five: Examining social desirability and college
academic performance. Manuscript submitted for publication.
Pickett, R., & Rinella, V. (2006, February). Using the student readiness
inventory to introduce critical skills for college success through first-year
experience course. Paper presented at the 25th Annual Conference on the
First-Year Experience, Atlanta, GA.
Pintrich, P. R. (2000). An achievement goal perspective on issues in
motivation terminology, theory, and research. Contemporary Educational
Psychology, 25, 92-104.
Robbins, S. B., Lauver, K., Le, H., Davis, D., Langley, R., & Carlstrom, A.
(2004). Do psychosocial and study skills factors predict college outcomes?
A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 130, 261-288.
Schunk, D. H., & Zimmerman, B. J. (2003). Self-regulatoin and learning. In
W. M. Reynolds & G. E. Miller (Eds.), Handbook of psychology, Vol. 7:
Educational Psychology (pp. 59-78). New York: John Wiley.
Tinto, V. (1993). Leaving college: Rethinking the causes and cures of student
attrition (2nd ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
SRI Scale Names and Definitions
(1) Academic Discipline. Amount of effort a student puts into
schoolwork and the degree to which he or she sees
himself or herself as hardworking and conscientious
(2) Academic Self-Confidence. Extent to which a student
believes he or she can perform well in school
(3) Commitment to College. Student’s commitment to staying
in college and getting a degree
(4) Communication Skills. How attentive a student is to others’
feelings and how flexible he or she is in resolving
conflicts with others
(5) Emotional Control. How a student responds to strong
feelings and how he or she manages those feelings
(6) General Determination. Extent to which a student strives
to follow through on commitments and obligations
(7) Goal Striving. Strength of a student’s effort to achieve
objectives and end goals
(8) Social Activity. How comfortable a student feels meeting
and interacting with other people
(9) Social Connection. A student’s feelings of connection and
involvement with the college/school community
(10) Study Skills. Extent to which a student believes he or she
knows how to assess an academic problem,
organize a solution, and successfully complete
academic assignments.
Table 2
1
1. ACT Composite score
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1.00
2. SRI - Commitment to college
.00
1.00
3. SRI - Goal striving
-.07
.58
1.00
-.08
.49
.68
1.00
5. SRI - General determination
-.09
.54
.79
.74
1.00
6. SRI - Study skills
-.11
.67
.63
.58
.64
1.00
.01
.44
.58
.47
.67
.58
1.00
8. SRI - Social activity
-.06
.33
.44
.26
.29
.27
.28
1.00
9. SRI - Social connection
-.01
.39
.56
.36
.49
.46
.61
.55
1.00
.29
.36
.54
.41
.44
.36
.33
.36
.31
1.00
.03
.28
.47
.38
.35
.34
.37
.37
.26
.38
1.00
12. Semester 1 GPA
.12
.23
.17
.37
.21
.12
.15
.03
.02
.14
.04
13. Semester 2 GPA
.12
.18
.10
.33
.16
.09
.09
.02
.00
.08
.04
.68
1.00
21.19
5.28
4.71
4.50
4.99
4.17
4.93
4.10
4.53
4.15
3.99
2.59
2.45
3.23
0.84
0.74
0.84
0.72
0.82
0.76
0.91
0.80
0.66
0.76
1.01
1.05
4. SRI - Academic discipline
7. SRI - Communication skills
10. SRI - Academic self-efficacy
11. SRI - Emotional control
Mean
Standard Deviation
1.00
Table 3
Dependent
variable
Step
First semester
GPA
Second semester
GPA
Predictor
variable
1
ACT Composite
2
SRI Commitment to college
SRI Goal striving
SRI Academic discipline
SRI General determination
SRI Study skills
SRI Communication skills
SRI Social activity
SRI Social connection
SRI Academic self-confidence
SRI Emotional control
1
ACT Composite
2
SRI Commitment to college
SRI Goal striving
SRI Academic discipline
SRI General determination
SRI Study skills
SRI Communication skills
SRI Social activity
SRI Social connection
SRI Academic self-confidence
SRI Emotional control
B
SE B
_
R
R2 _
F
.058
.502
.188 *
.123
.015
6.058*
.020
.007
.039
-.002
.003
-.023
-.011
.010
-.018
-.007
.016
.009
.013
.010
.013
.007
.009
.007
.009
.006
.184
.054
.355
-.021
.024
-.243
-.120
.082
-.167
-.082
.363
.132
5.275*
.071
.019
.215 *
.123
.015
5.469*
.018
.005
.037
.001
-.003
-.010
-.009
.003
-.024
-.005
.010
.015
.011
.015
.008
.010
.008
.010
.008
.007
.153
.033
.311 *
.010
-.023
-.102
-.094
.025
-.211 *
-.061
.317
.100
3.523*
*
*
*
*
Table 4
Dependent
variable
Step
Variable
B
SE
Exp(B)
G
df
G diff
df diff
S1 - S2
Persistence
0
1
2
Intercept
ACT Composite
SRI Commitment to college
SRI Goal striving
SRI Academic discipline
SRI General determination
SRI Study skills
SRI Communication skills
SRI Social activity
SRI Social connection
SRI Academic self-confidence
SRI Emotional control
.119
.013
.668
.188
.304
-.110
-.354
-.100
-.245
.398
-.324
-.149
1.720
.061
.245
.494
.318
.485
.320
.363
.268
.332
.369
.279
1.126
241.64
1.013
241.65
1.950 * 224.91
1.210
1.355
.896
.702
.905
.783
1.489
.723
.861
0
1
11
.01
16.73
1
10
S2 - S3
Persistence
0
1
2
Intercept
ACT Composite
SRI Commitment to college
SRI Goal striving
SRI Academic discipline
SRI General determination
SRI Study skills
SRI Communication skills
SRI Social activity
SRI Social connection
SRI Academic self-confidence
SRI Emotional control
-.767
-.007
.536
-.672
.748
-.247
.190
.179
-.137
.232
-.361
-.079
1.259
.043
.185
.336
.222
.340
.212
.242
.180
.231
.258
.190
.464
442.01
.993
442.87
1.709 * 407.78
.510 *
2.113 *
.781
1.209
1.196
.872
1.261
.697
.924
0
1
11
.86
35.09 *
1
10