A Solar Wind Source Tracking Concept for Inner Heliosphere Constellations of Spacecraft J.G. Luhmann1, Yan Li1, C.N. Arge2, Todd Hoeksema3 and Xuepu Zhao3 (1) Space Sciences Laboratory, University of California Berkeley, (2) CIRES, University of Colorado and NOAASEC, (3) Stanford University Abstract. During the next decade, a number of spacecraft carrying in-situ particles and fields instruments, including the twin STEREO spacecraft, ACE, WIND, and possibly Triana, will be monitoring the solar wind in the inner heliosphere. At the same time, several suitably instrumented planetary missions, including Nozomi, Mars Express, and Messenger will be in either their cruise or orbital phases which expose them at times to interplanetary conditions and/or regions affected by the solar wind interaction. In addition to the mutual support role for the individual missions that can be gained from this coincidence, this set provides an opportunity for evaluating the challenges and tools for a future targeted heliospheric constellation mission. In the past few years the capability of estimating the solar sources of the local solar wind has improved, in part due to the ability to monitor the full-disk magnetic field of the Sun on an almost continuous basis. We illustrate a concept for a model and web-based display that routinely updates the estimated sources of the solar wind arriving at inner heliospheric spacecraft. disk data are also used for this purpose, and moreover provide the possibility of updates at 96 minute cadence - or better during limited campaign periods. Figures 1a-b show some of the standard displays from the aforementioned websites. The programs to generate these run automatically on standard platforms. Looking ahead to STEREO and the Heliospheric Sentinels, this capability can be exploited toward identification of likely sites of solar wind sources for each spacecraft location. DISPLAY TOOLS FOR EVALUATING SOLAR WIND SOURCES Several web-based space weather tools for corona and solar wind monitoring have been developed over the last few years that take advantage of regular full-disk magnetograph observations and the Potential Field Source Surface Model (e.g. Altschuler et al., 1969; Wang and Sheeley, 1992). One of these, at SSL-UCB, keeps track of the coronal hole and coronal magnetic field configuration, including changes in the open and closed regions between full-disk observations (currently available at the URL http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/mf_evol ). The other is part of a Rapid Prototyping Center activity at NOAA-SEC where it is used to make predictions of solar wind speeds and magnetic field polarities at the Earth (URL http://solar.sec.noaa.gov/ws/index.html ). While the Potential Field Source Surface Model has well-understood limitations, it provides an excellent approximation to the observed coronal holes (e.g. Levine, 1982), and projected interplanetary magnetic field polarities {3}. Such mappings of the inferred coronal hole flows to the source surface, and then into the heliosphere, were first demonstrated in the era of SkyLab {7,4}. In these mappings, the coronal potential field model open field lines are regarded as solar wind streamlines in the corona. Kinematic extrapolations from the source surface, typically assumed at ~2.5 solar radii, provide the connection to heliospheric sites where in-situ plasma and field measurements are made by spacecraft. These applications are possible because of the typically daily construction of “updated” photospheric magnetic field synoptic maps that occurs at Wilcox Solar Observatory, and at the NOAA-SEC for other magnetic observatories including Mt. Wilson, Kitt Peak, and the GONG network. The SOHO-MDI full- CP679, Solar Wind Ten: Proceedings of the Tenth International Solar Wind Conference, edited by M. Velli, R. Bruno, and F. Malara © 2003 American Institute of Physics 0-7354-0148-9/03/$20.00 168 Although the MHD models are based on more physically rigorous treatments (e.g. Usmanov, 2000), the good agreement on the solar wind source locations obtained with the much less computationally demanding potential field source surface model approach establishes its credibility as a first-order source mapping tool. Moreover, the latter is much more amenable to the higher spatial resolution coronal field modeling required during active periods of the solar cycle. FIGURE 1A. Sample page from the The displays shown in Figures 2 through 7 illustrate the types of visualizations possible with only modest extensions of the framework developed for the above-mentioned websites. The advantage of these displays is that they are all 3-dimensional. They can be shown as rotating Sun movies, to give the viewer a sense of the longitudinal variation of the solar wind sources at a particular time, or with new applications like Java 3D, can be manipulated to any orientation by the website viewer using their mouse. website http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/mf_evol that tracks changes in the coronal magnetic fields based on magnetograph observations and the potential field source surface model. The general philosophy represented by these displays is the use of available synoptic data from magnetographs and other full-disk imagers, together with the Potential Field Source Surface model, to infer the solar connections of interplanetary features. Setting up the mechanisms now, using solar observations of the type we expect to have available to us in 2006, will prepare us to exploit the observations from STEREO and its partners in the heliosphere, including Messenger at Mercury, Nozomi at Mars, and especially the near-Earth spacecraft ACE and WIND. Description of Figures FIGURE 1B. Sample page from the website http://solar.sec.noaa.gov/ws/index.html that predicts solar wind speeds and interplanetary field polarities based on magnetograph observations and the potential field source surface model. The figures in this brief report show various combinations of 3D information from observations and the potential field source surface model of the coronal hole sources of solar wind. The example of Carrington Rotation 1932 (22 Jan-17 Feb, 1998) is used for illustration. Mt. Wilson Observatory synoptic maps provide both the photospheric magnetic fields shown on the globe of the photosphere, as well as the basis for the coronal field model. They were chosen because of their particularly well-characterized polar field corrections (e.g. see Arge and Pizzo, 2000). The other synoptic maps shown are from the EIT experiment on SOHO. These are available through the NRL LASCO EIT website. The 195 Angstrom maps are used because they often exhibit dark areas similar to the coronal hole footprints obtained with the potential field source surface model. Arge and Pizzo {2} and Fry et al. {8} recently applied the Wang and Sheeley {11} method of estimating the solar wind velocity from the divergence of coronal open flux tubes, and then used a modified kinematic mapping corrected for the effects of stream interactions to obtain quantitative predictions of solar wind speed and interplanetary field polarity. Another application to Ulysses data analysis by Neugebauer et al. {6} compared the results of similar mappings with those from a global MHD model. They found that for the moderate solar activity interval studied, the inferred sources of the measured solar wind obtained with both models were very similar. 169 FIGURE 5. Like Figure 2, but including the last closed field lines of the coronal helmet streamer belt for context. This display emphasizes the location of the mapped points relative to the closed/open field line boundaries. FIGURE 2. Illustration of the solar wind source tracking tool concept described in this report. Hypothetical spacecraft locations are mapped back to the source surface, and then to their coronal hole footpoints along interplanetary and coronal magnetic field lines. The coronal hole pattern on the inner boundary of the potential field source surface model is included, together with some other open coronal field lines for context. Only the coronal part of the mapping is shown here. FIGURE 6. Illustration of a subsequent mapping of magnetic field lines from the coronal model source surface out to 1 AU using a modified kinematic approach, More sophisticated techniques, especially MHD models, can be substituted here for more physical realism. FIGURE 3. Like Figure 2, but including a synoptic map of the photospheric magnetic field from the Mt. Wilson Observatory website at UCLA for context, and eliminating all but the mapped coronal field lines that connect the spacecraft to the Sun. The relationship of the connection points to active regions is the aim of this display. The fine dotted lines are coronal magnetic field lines from the spherical source surface (Rss=2.5 solar radii) potential field model. The green dotted line represents the trace of the heliospheric neutral sheet on the source surface, while red-dotted circles indicate either the source surface equator or Earth's orbit at 1 AU. The remaining colored dotted lines are those that map to near-term inner heliospheric spacecraft at hypothetical locations in their orbits. These mappings can be used to infer the arrival of wind from a particular feature such as a polar coronal hole extension, and the context of the spacecraft with respect to the stream structure and magnetic sector boundaries. Our extrapolation from the spacecraft FIGURE 4. Like Figure 3, but including a synoptic map of 195 Angstrom EUV flux from the SOHO EIT website at NRL for context. The EIT maps show the coronal holes as dark features, for comparison with the calculated coronal holes. 170 these visualizations. The solar wind extrapolations also allow 3D rendering of the prevailing heliospheric current sheet configuration with respect to the mapped field lines, akin to those of Riley et al. {9, also this volume}. Altogether, this source tracking toolkit can be regularly updated in a space-weather forecasting fashion or used for retrospective analyses. With multipoint (e.g. SOHO and STEREO) mission images on the horizon, the ability to illustrate and examine the inferred 3D solar wind structure will be a key part of tying the in-situ measurements into our "picture" of the inner heliosphere. FIGURE 7. Heliospheric current sheet inferred from the potential field source surface coronal model and modified kinematic interplanetary mapping. The 1 AU circle and spiral line segments indicate the Earth's orbit and mapped interplanetary field lines intersecting the 3 dimensional opaque structure used to render the current sheet. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The visualizations described here could not have been done without open access to solar data provided by Mt. Wilson Observatory (Roger Ulrich and coworkers at UCLA), and the SOHO EIT investigators (Nathan Rich at NRL, especially). This work was supported in part by the Space Weather Program at NSF as part of award 164766 to Boston University, and by the Solar MURI project at UC Berkeley, sponsored by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research. location back to the source surface uses a modified kinematic approach with ad-hoc stream interactions similar to those applied by Fry et al.{8} and Arge and Pizzo {2}. In this case they are introduced into a radial solar wind flow with an initially heliomagnetic latitude-dependent speed. The results from more rigorous approaches can of course be substituted in 6. Neugebauer, M., et al., Spatial structure of the solar wind and comparisons with solar data and models, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14,587, (1998). REFERENCES 7. Nolte, J.T., et al., Coronal hole sources of solar wind, Solar Phys., 46, 303, (1976). 1. Altschuler, M.D. and G. Newkirk, Jr., Magnetic fields and the structure of the solar corona, Solar Physics, 9, 131, (1969). 8. Fry, C.D.; W. Sun, C.S. Deehr, M. 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