PERFORMANCE BOUNDS ON THE DETECTION AND LOCALIZATION IN A STOCHASTIC OCEAN ARTHUR B. BAGGEROER AND HENRIK SCHMIDT Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MA 02090, USA E-mail: [email protected] Methods for predicting the performance of a sonar for both and localization with a known propagation and clutter distribution are well known. Many oceanographic processes such as internal waves and bottom roughness require a stochastic description since they are dynamic and/or have a fine scale beyond which measurements are unrealistic. These and other processes randomize the temporal and spatial structure of signals and a single degree of freedom model for a replica is no longer applicable; hence, virtually all the single replica processing is not optimum. For example, one can have a power flux across and array from a signal with good SNR, yet still not be able to localize because the phase structure has been randomized too much by the stochastic processes of the ocean. Here we introduce a stochastic model for propagation from which the number of degrees of freedom in a signal observed by a sonar array. The objective is a model which reasonably represents the observed signal as observed by a sonar. We then apply these models to developing Chernoff bounds for detection and CramerRao for localization. These models also indicate new receiver structures for a passive sonar which exploits the uncertainty rather than allow it to degrade from the optimal performance. Generally, we can infer that if the eigenspectrum of the observed signal has a “red” structure, which is the case in a partially saturated ocean, one can recover some of the performance compared to a deterministic propagation model. If the eigenspectrum, however, approaches “white” spectrum, then the performance degrades to simple energy detection and localization is not possible. 1 Introduction There are many models for characterizing the random components of the ocean. For well known examples, there are Pierson-Moscovitz spectra the ocean surface >dH, GarrettMunk spectra for internal waves, >1H, and correlation functions for seafloor roughness >nH. Similarly, there are very large number of theories for predicting the coherent and incoherent components of scattered fields. Predicting the performance of a sonar system, however, is difficult because these models do not lead to representations used in detection and estimation analysis. Some theories that do lead to useful representations are the temporal-spatial correlation for propagation fluctuations through internal waves >;H and the propagation of second moments by the parabolic equation >xH. The former uses a ray parameterization and assumes the rays are uncorrelated. which is questionable at low frequencies. The latter does lead to full field results, however, implementations the equation for the second moment has not attained the maturity of those for field itself, for example the sophisticated codes of Collins >EH. 507 N.G. Pace and F.B. Jensen (eds.), Impact of Littoral Environmental Variability on Acoustic Predictions and Sonar Performance, 507-514. © 2002 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands. 508 A.B. BAGGEROER AND H. SCHMIDT Performance predictions for detection and localization are generally based on likelihood ratios tests (LRT’s) [7]. For Gaussian statistics these lead to a combination of linear and quadratic operations upon the observed data. This contrasts with some of the theoretical and observed statistics for the probability density function (PDF’s) at a single receiver; however, it is not clear that the same data could be well represented by a Rician distribution where a phase randomized mean is a component of the data as well. Moreover, the authors are not aware of any multivariate PDF’s as needed for a sensor array in the literature and these are essential for performance predictions for data from an array of sensors. Consequently, we use a Gaussian vector model for the data which also leads to Wishart PDF’s for the sample covariance of the observed data. Essentially, our arguments for this model is that tractable analytic results which incorporate all the propagation and stochastic model effects and the current literature cannot make a firm case for alternative models because of approximations employed and/or cannot be distinguished from vector Gaussian model or generalizations of it such as incorporating a mean or using a Rician PDF. Currently, the complexity of range dependent propagation with uncertain perturbation introduced by an environmental model is sufficiently complicated that the statistics required by a detection or localization performance can only be provided by estimated moments such as the sample covariance. In general, there are no tractable analytic methods for computing these moments except in the single replica, or one degree of freedom, for the signal which corresponds to no uncertainty in the propagation. We consequently use sample covariances obtained by running a range dependent propagation code such as FEPE (RAM) or range dependent OASIS and accumulating the results for different samples of the ocean obtained using uncertainty models of the ocean [6, 8]. Finally, the results below pertain to a passive sonar model such as represented by classical beamforming or Matched Field Processing. Similar results can be derived for active systems, or Matched Field Tomography or Ocean Acoustic Tomography, but they are not included because of space restrictions imposed on the papers. Moreover, we concentrate on presenting the theoretical framework with examples to be subsequently published. 2 Stochastic ocean model Virtually all sonars are implemented in the frequency domain by transforming a sequence of L data segments, possibly overlapping, to form a “snapshot” vector for an array with N sensors given by ! Tl + T2 l w(t − Tl )r(t)e−j2πft dt R (f ) = Tl − T2 where Rl (f ) is the N x1 vector of the l the “snapshot;” r(t) is the vector of observations; w(t) is a window, or taper, function controlling bandwidth and sidelobes; Tl is the center of the window for l the “snapshot”; T is the duration of the window. STOCHASTIC OCEAN PERFORMANCE BOUNDS 509 There are a number of issues in the windowing operation including the spread in group delays and transit time across an array for the signal, doppler effects due to source/receiver motion and environmental processes such as internal waves and the overall stationarity of the field. [9]. These effects lead what is termed “doppler spreading” in detection and estimation theory and are important issues for the performance of sonar systems; however, other than noting that source/receiver motion dominates variability except in fixed-fixed systems, we do not address these issues in uncertainty. Calculating the performance of detection and localization for a sonar requires the mean vector and covariance matrix of Rl (f ). If the additional assumption of Gaussianity is applied, then analytic expressions for the false alarm and detection probabilities as well as localization accuracy can be determined. For a stochastic ocean we use the following model Ndof Rl (f ) = " B̃il (f )Gi (f, a) + Nil (f ), i where Ndof is the number of degrees of freedom for the representation; Gi (f, a, i = 1, Ndof is a sequence of “Green’s functions;” B̃il (f ) are complex Gaussian random variables of the snapshots which are identically distributed with zero mean and covariance ΣB (f); Nil (f ) are additive noise components with spectral covariance Sn (f ); a is a parameter vector which representing both localization (range, bearing, depth) and environmental parameters (sound speeds, layer thicknesses, random models). Some comments regarding the model are appropriate here. First, there are numerous results which argue a different PDF for the marginal, i.e. first order density, of a signal propagating through a random ocean. The log-normal distribution, for example, is often cited for the envelope which differs from a Raleigh PDF resulting from a Gaussian. Our argument is that these results are all for a single path and observation; when one considers a realistic ocean with many paths and a typical detection or localization process where there is averaging across a large number “snapshots,” the central limit theorem rapidly takes over and one cannot distinguish the differences. Moreover, there are no multivariate distributions consistent with these marginal distributions. Next, for the case Ndof = 1 corresponds to a single, spatially coherent propagation path and reduces to the model used for classical Matched Field Processing (MFP). Finally, the “Green’s functions,” Gi (f, a are not truly Green’s functions in the classical usage. Such functions are well defined only a given propagation environment, not an ensemble of them. They are intended to represent a set of functions which span the covariance representation for the signal which is required to incorporates the uncertainty. Examples of this are discussed below. The ensemble covariances of the signal and noise are the important quantities for performance prediction algorithms. For this we define the N xNdof Green’s function matrix a G(f, a) = [ G1 (f, a) | G1 (f, a) | · · · | Gdof (f, a) ] . H aA indicates the complex transpose of the matrix A. 510 A.B. BAGGEROER AND H. SCHMIDT This leads to the following for the ensemble covariance of the “snapshots” Kr (f ) = G(f, a)ΣB (f )G H (f, a) + Kn (f). We note the ΣB (f) need not, and in most cases, is not diagonal, so the model can include phenomena such as ray/mode correlation. Furthermore, Sn (f ) can also be an arbitrary, for example, as derived from a Kuperman-Ingenito noise model [10]. 3 Green’s function representations There are several possible ways to develop the above representation for the covariance of a signal propagating in a stochastic ocean. The tradeoff depends upon implementation of a numerical model for estimating the sample covariance as well as the covariance matrix ΣB (f). Ideally, one wants a representation with this covariance to be very close to a diagonal matrix. (An exact diagonal matrix corresponds to adiabatic propagation.) In the this sections we indicate possible choices for the representation of G1 (f, a). For a range independent environment the Green’s function can be represented as a sum of normal modes. Extensions to range dependent propagation lead to coupled mode codes. The basic concept is to expand the output in terms of the normal modes at the array receiver. The weightings of the modes form a random vector with a covariance which is a transformation on ΣB (f ). If there is no modal coupling, i.e. this matrix has rank one whereas if the propagation saturates this matrix has full effective rank of Ndof . A second alternative is to apply a singular decomposition to the array receiver output. In this approach the eigenvectors are orthonormal and ΣB (f ) is diagonal. The eigenvalue distibution represents the effective number of degrees of freedom in the signal. For example, if there is no modal coupling, the there is only one non zero eigenvalue and the eigenvector corresponds to the adiabatic solution to wave equation [11]. In general, this leads to the above representation where the eigenvectors are the Gi (f, a) and a diagonal covariance matrix for ΣB (f ). Finally, the simplest and most practical representation for the array receiver is to form a set of preformed beams which form a complete orthogonal basis at the array receiver. In this case the representation is in terms of the beam steering vector and the covariance matrix represents the intrabeam correlation. For example, phase coupled multipath as occurs in a deterministic ocean leads to full coherence among the respective beams whereas uncorrelated multipath corresponding to saturation leads to zero coherence. 4 Detection performance and the Chernoff bound for a stochastic ocean The fundamental question here is how to employ the above models to make performance predictions for a sonar system. As posed, this is a spatial extension to the so called detection and estimation of a random signal embedded in additive noise problem. This has been examined in the signal and array processing literature [7], so we extend the results in this literature. Optimal detection uses a likelihood ratio test to call the presence or absence of a target. The key performance parameters are the detection probability, PD and false alarm probability, PF . Except in the case of a diagonal ΣB , which leads to ξ 2 probability 511 STOCHASTIC OCEAN PERFORMANCE BOUNDS densities, PD and PF can only be approximated albeit as closely as one needs with Chernoff bounds. In the interest of space we omit derivations and give just results. For the binary detection case with a given value of a we have two hypotheses: H1 : KR ((f )|H1 ) = G(f, a)ΣB (f )G H (f, a) + Kn (f ) signal plus noise H0 : KR ((f )|H0 ) = Kn (f ) noise only In M-ary formulation where one formulates a hypothesis test over all the parameters a such as typically done for MFP ambiguity surfaces. For the Chernoff bound and approximation for PD and PF we define the semi-invariant of the likelihood ratio conditioned on hypothesis H0 . This is given by ! µ(s) = L ln(|K1 |s−1 |K0 |−s + |sK0 + (1 − s)K1 |df W where W is the bandwidth of the signal; s is a free parameter with 0 ≤ s ≤ 1 which can be used to optimize the bounds (In the low SNR case typical of sonar detection, s = 1/2.); K1 = KR ((f )|H1 ) is a shortened notation for the covariance on the signal present hypothesis; K0 = KR ((f )|H0 ) is a shortened notation for the covariance on the null hypothesis. All the quantities involved can be determined from the problem formulation depending upon the Green’s function representation. One can readily derive the following expressions for PD and PF [7] 1 ú eµ(s)−sµ(s) 2πs2 µ̈(s) and PF = # 1 ú eµ(s)+(1−s)µ(s) PD = 1 − # 2π(1 − s)2 µ̈(s) By sweeping s over its range [0, 1], one can sweep out the entire Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) for the problem. We summarize the approach: 1) A model which allows more than one spatial degree of freedom to incorporate the uncertainty in the propagation. 2) We suggested several characterizations -normal modes, SVD’s or preformed beams. Generally, these need to estimated by simulation since the theory for propagation in a stochastic cannot now provide the needed covariances. 3) Once these covariances are known, well established bounds from detection theory can be applied. The novel item is the model to represent a stochastic ocean in a format that sonar predictions can be done. All can be addresses directly by numerical methods. 512 A.B. BAGGEROER AND H. SCHMIDT 5 Bounds on localization and tomography for a stochastic ocean Determining the obtainable accuracy of parameter estimates with MFP has been extensively studied. There have been two approaches -extensive simulations [12] and analytic approaches using bounds [13–16]. While simulations are useful, much depends on the algorithm and its implementation; in addition, there is a complicated interplay among the parameters which is hard to extract from simulations. The bounds performance of a parameter estimation with a single degree of freedom with no parameter model mismatch have three regions of interest as indicated in figure below (from [16]). At SNR" s > SNR1 the performance is well predicted by a linearized 2 e (dB) 3 dB No Information Region Asymptotic Region 3 dB Transition Region SNR2 SNR1 SNR (dB) Figure 1. Performance realms in parameter estimation analysis as given by the Cramer-Rao bound [13, 14]. At medium levels SNR2 < SN R < SNR1 the performance enters an “asymptotic region” where sidelobes play the dominant role [15, 16]. In this region nonlinear bounds such as the Weiss-Weinstein, Ziv-Zakai or Barankin bounds have been used successfully. Finally, for SN R < SNR2 there is no information in the observed signal and one has only a priori knowledge. In this section we present generalizations of the results of Baggeroer and Schmidt [13] to the model for a stochastic ocean indicated above. For this we define the following quantities b : d2 (f, a) = G † (f, a)S−1 n (f)G(f, a), ∂G(f,a) li (f, a) = G † (f, a)S−1 n (f) ∂ai , li,j (f, a) = ∂G † (f,a) −1 Sn (f )∂G(f, a)∂aj , ∂ai $ %−1 Γ(f, a) = 2 I + d2 (f, a)Sb (f ) . b The several spectral quantities scale to the covariance by multiplying by T , the window duration, i.e. Kx = T Sx . STOCHASTIC OCEAN PERFORMANCE BOUNDS 513 The Cramer-Rao bound is expressed in terms of the Fisher Information Matrix, J. Asymptotically, the performance of any parameter estimation algorithm is given the variance being lower bounded as follows: σa2i,i ≥ [J−1 ]i,i where σa2i,i is the variance, or the inverse of the output SNR for the i the parameter; [J−1 ]i,i is the i the diagonal matrix of the inverse of the Fisher information matrix. Furthermore, one can demonstrate the the cross terms J−1 i,j indicate the coupling among the parameters. This is important because it permits one to search for a minimal parameterization of the models which improves the accuracy of most estimation algorithms. The only remaining issue is to determine an expression for the elements of the Fisher Information Matrix. One can derive the following result for this [17] Ji.j = ! T ∆W & && ' T r Sb (f )Γ(f, a) Ev(li,j (f, a))Sb (f)d2 (f, a) − Ev(l†i (f, a)Sb (f )lj (f, a)) + (Ev(li (f, a))Sb (f )Γ(f, a)Ev(lj (f, a)))]] df. c Again, all these quantities can be directly computed numerically. One can readily verify that this reduces to the earlier derived single replica results for Ndof = 1. These sections of the above can be interpreted fairly easily. The first line indicates the “convexity” of the ambiguity normalized to an SNR. The second line indicates the effect of increasing the observed power as a result of changing a parameter. Both lines are scaled by the a SNR factor which increases with SNR for SNR < 1 while at high SNR’s it approaches unity. This is a common characteristic of Gaussian detection and estimation. Overall, we have a method for quantifying the obtainable performance for parameter estimation in a stochastic ocean. Bounds for the performance in the asymptotic region can also be derived, however, they are computationally extensive at the current time. 6 Summary We have two important results in this paper: i) We have a robust model for a stochastic ocean and is coupled to the propagation physics; however, quantities for it now need to be found by simulation using one of the range dependent codes available. ii) We have given methods for analyzing detection, i.e. the ROC curve, and for bounding the performance of any estimation algorithm in the high SNR region and where there is no unmodeled mismatch. c The “even” part of a matrix is given by: Ev(X) = X + X† . 2 514 A.B. BAGGEROER AND H. SCHMIDT Acknowledgments This work was supported by the Ocean Acoustic and Underwater Signal Processing Codes at ONR. In addition, the first author was supported by his SECNAV/CNO Chair for Ocean Science funded by ONR. References 1. 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